Single Family info update Oct 1-10

QWE321

Edmonton Single Family Home
" w" k7 ^2 J" }2 [MLS Statistics(Unofficial)
Includes Edmonton, St Albert, Sherwood Park, Spruce Grove, Stony Plain
Note: These areas do not coincide with the criteria used by the Edmonton Real Estate Board
0 b6 d& o" c8 K  F8 z
' f2 O  K* o! I! _- ^Date      Inventory  New Listings Added  Sales  30-Day Avg Price 30-Day Median Price SP/SF DOM Sales/NewListing Ratio  
  p/ g' L+ c/ [# C6 s
  s* D, {6 x* iOct 1-10 4879 678 185 429,254 394,000 295 40 27%
; L6 \9 d) x6 P# g+ z9 e( b9 j
% Z5 N. e2 n" n# t1 P3 X! {$ TSep 2007 5030 2214 515 426,984 390,000 303 41 23%

Aug 2007 4656 2108 635 429,889 395,000 314 36 30%
+ R2 h' Z& Q  ^* F* [
# R7 n; |1 \8 d" oJul 2007
3 @6 ~- d, E2 ]% I+ Z  O NA
2328
" i& L7 ]9 K& G2 t 717
442,752
6 a# P4 v. P' d 410,000
( i, o# h) g, Q+ b9 l: u! p/ b 320
28
& Z7 m( \5 m# V+ b" u: Q 31%

Jun 2007
+ C7 E/ r6 Q7 {  d NA
2661
1011
' F+ K" x- ~) [% x3 n 442,817
409,000
: ^. l$ g9 l) m; v 328
22
; x+ n# y4 f8 w4 Q 38%
2 y* N* P, g& [* V/ W
May 2007
NA
& c0 L) R- o/ ]: I2 v 2288
1261
451,216
) [) z( |( \8 H0 i# i 415,000
322
/ W# t  Z/ j4 V" o4 B9 X$ X0 k 19
55%

紫光

存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
鉴定完毕！

WST

看来，存货似已见顶。
这几天，在街上又见现金收购房子的广告。

yj151

景之白干

原帖由 紫光 于 2007-10-16 22:03 发表
存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
鉴定完毕！

+ N, c3 g( K% f, l' b
6 K5 h+ w; U* V" |& T- G用十天的数据来和30天的比较，鉴定结果可靠吗？

Z

1）房价持续下跌，每尺从303跌到295。
2）成交房里大房子比重上升，使得每尺单价下跌但总的中位价上升。
3）存量惊人。每年秋冬，存量都会锐减。但现在是持平。考虑到季节因素，存量其实是增加了。

Z

原帖由 紫光 于 2007-10-16 22:03 发表
; \# ^6 p( c) P, v8 _存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
, g8 q( K% w' S鉴定完毕！

% R- b4 y$ Z) K" v) ~3 K1 h9 ?$ {0 S
5 \9 N. V3 u& D- e呵呵，太不专业了吧。
- Z1 Z, Y, }4 Y* z) J
新存量 = 旧存量 + 新列量 - 新销量 - 下市量

6 J! ]2 Q: ~! D& B7 }就是说， 存量变化 = 新存量 - 旧存量 = 新列量 - 新销量 - 下市量 = 678 -185 - 下市量

" w' Z% g4 p' @" ]$ e& R# K这里面我们没有下市量的数据。你简单的回避新增的678和未知的下市量，你的算法也太粗糙了。

QWE321

Don't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

judyzh

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 08:21 发表
Don't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

紫光

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 08:21 发表
) Q5 P! K0 A: c. c7 [: J4 p: \Don't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

& O; `* S2 y6 `3 l

QWE321

In average sale 3000 per month, but last 6 months, the sales between 1000 to 2000.
/ F& ~, Q2 u0 gIs the mean there are other 6000 potential buyers there?
How about all these potential buyers start taking their action?
That is what i say half full or half empty.
" s! S' S6 F" J, ]: m$ ]9 Rgood luck for people seeking their house.

水管工

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 10:09 发表
In average sale 3000 per month, but last 6 months, the sales between 1000 to 2000.
Is the mean there are other 6000 potential buyers there?
; N6 Y3 ]7 j' r6 T) A/ T! WHow about all these potential buyers start taking the ...

8 R" {7 U' w. S# r" D2 k, xI think a lot of investors and speculators are quitting from the market, it is too hard for them to make money. Instead, they are dumping their houses now to make a profit.

WST

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-16 16:13 发表
Edmonton Single Family Home
MLS Statistics(Unofficial)
  `- H; m7 Q  M# W% FIncludes Edmonton, St Albert, Sherwood Park, Spruce Grove, Stony Plain
) I  n+ X: H. r- V: e; m/ ]Note: These areas do not coincide with the criteria used by the  ...

, k" }' n+ ^0 l3 V5 B. y9 IQWE321:　这些数据来源于何处？是否可靠？又无网站连接?

QWE321

http://www.bobtruman.com/Edmonton_SFH_stats/page_1918017.html

小曲

原帖由 水管工 于 2007-10-17 10:23 发表
. Z# H" a, h) _- y$ R; n

2 ?- W8 |+ I5 dI think a lot of investors and speculators are quitting from the market, it is too hard for them to make money. Instead, they are dumping their houses now to make a profit.

WST

原帖由 Z 于 2007-10-17 07:36 发表
# b+ v- w5 m; }8 f6 M1）房价持续下跌，每尺从303跌到295。
9 r& v. P4 s3 B2）成交房里大房子比重上升，使得每尺单价下跌但总的中位价上升。
( d$ {) d/ t" L0 c9 S) A3）存量惊人。每年秋冬，存量都会锐减。但现在是持平。考虑到季节因素，存量其实是增加了。

; M% c  S" G, Q$ `" B
" C! W9 Q& R) X3 ^% ~下半年，存量通常会持续增加，以卡城为例，参考下图：


/ `) Z# l2 C. a% s
只有去年例外，存量在年末锐减。

WST

上图为days inventory 和 总存量有不同。总存量在年末的确大减。
& y" t. t" {; j+ k" K) e) M! K, f- r看来，观察days inventory 更重要。