Single Family info update Oct 1-10

QWE321

Edmonton Single Family Home
MLS Statistics(Unofficial)
Includes Edmonton, St Albert, Sherwood Park, Spruce Grove, Stony Plain
Note: These areas do not coincide with the criteria used by the Edmonton Real Estate Board

Date      Inventory  New Listings Added  Sales  30-Day Avg Price 30-Day Median Price SP/SF DOM Sales/NewListing Ratio  

) d3 F+ b! a4 s6 Q4 x" O8 bOct 1-10 4879 678 185 429,254 394,000 295 40 27%
3 Z3 \  Z- M) E
% X# K2 x" d; L3 j8 tSep 2007 5030 2214 515 426,984 390,000 303 41 23%

5 Z9 J- c5 s7 A1 ~9 S* G8 kAug 2007 4656 2108 635 429,889 395,000 314 36 30%

Jul 2007
NA
. A( |, n0 `9 G5 l5 h1 ~' z 2328
: @' z( J% f: Y1 u. D9 N4 n  R2 C& Y 717
442,752
# Q9 n, D" p- x* e 410,000
320
# |0 Q3 M# B. C. A5 U& D 28
' Z8 W) Z& a  y 31%
3 Z% q9 j% ^" f3 R4 @, r$ T" ^
# z0 Q8 V1 ?! `) C, ~1 r, DJun 2007
NA
- ]" m- }% S' A6 V" b 2661
1011
8 s7 r0 H3 h& D8 H! e5 q 442,817
409,000
$ Q* a' C3 a/ ~4 r 328
) B/ i. r' e/ B% \0 e$ y 22
# N0 ^( c2 P+ V1 E$ c- t9 ~ 38%
7 f! w3 u- \9 ~, h, u- ?! }
* P3 i& x( G$ s7 ZMay 2007
NA
2288
1 [! o. C: ?1 M+ [9 _ 1261
! {- d( J! {3 J9 F' M 451,216
5 n5 X8 [4 A& ^ 415,000
( y3 _! }, k/ t8 ]/ ]  n8 @" u1 {7 Z% F 322
! b6 X: D, e: J( [) R# W) I% }/ Z 19
. f+ Z, i% z% Q( X/ k 55%

紫光

存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
" y& b0 y  U0 o) Z鉴定完毕！

WST

看来，存货似已见顶。
0 p& J$ N* `& u& W7 P0 X3 u4 }这几天，在街上又见现金收购房子的广告。

yj151

景之白干

原帖由 紫光 于 2007-10-16 22:03 发表
+ \: Y  d" S& h$ R" y/ r6 R* w存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
鉴定完毕！

: H0 V0 ?; w, F  s+ j
$ R! h/ e: D) U' ?5 e( u8 y# F2 a+ u用十天的数据来和30天的比较，鉴定结果可靠吗？

Z

1）房价持续下跌，每尺从303跌到295。
2）成交房里大房子比重上升，使得每尺单价下跌但总的中位价上升。
3）存量惊人。每年秋冬，存量都会锐减。但现在是持平。考虑到季节因素，存量其实是增加了。

Z

原帖由 紫光 于 2007-10-16 22:03 发表
存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
鉴定完毕！

* c9 J2 ?% H7 ?( R6 _) \) a6 B呵呵，太不专业了吧。

" n3 s5 N) C7 l- j8 H5 B& r新存量 = 旧存量 + 新列量 - 新销量 - 下市量
( H/ O. J' ^  [5 U% R
就是说， 存量变化 = 新存量 - 旧存量 = 新列量 - 新销量 - 下市量 = 678 -185 - 下市量

0 j( }* \! Q& p+ k5 |这里面我们没有下市量的数据。你简单的回避新增的678和未知的下市量，你的算法也太粗糙了。

QWE321

Don't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

judyzh

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 08:21 发表
Don't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

$ }3 B# x  _2 {5 U
9 u: r. H3 b2 m

紫光

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 08:21 发表
9 Q  ]; ~7 D; F: Q% ]7 O. E* F3 P0 E& yDon't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

QWE321

In average sale 3000 per month, but last 6 months, the sales between 1000 to 2000.
4 p6 ]1 v  z4 F6 [3 C9 d2 LIs the mean there are other 6000 potential buyers there?
+ j$ z: M8 F4 X* }How about all these potential buyers start taking their action?
That is what i say half full or half empty.
/ A: H% n3 O+ E6 G! c  Ogood luck for people seeking their house.

水管工

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 10:09 发表
In average sale 3000 per month, but last 6 months, the sales between 1000 to 2000.
2 F6 m% R& \4 H& U- I$ S1 c$ _Is the mean there are other 6000 potential buyers there?
How about all these potential buyers start taking the ...

5 v4 N9 h/ c! V" j' D# ~# d
3 F  f! ~/ U# X3 H, j# U: H: B+ tI think a lot of investors and speculators are quitting from the market, it is too hard for them to make money. Instead, they are dumping their houses now to make a profit.

WST

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-16 16:13 发表
1 U! q; R  l7 [8 D' {& zEdmonton Single Family Home
# g$ M* d7 ]; [" wMLS Statistics(Unofficial)
Includes Edmonton, St Albert, Sherwood Park, Spruce Grove, Stony Plain
/ c5 K! e: K' |  g7 CNote: These areas do not coincide with the criteria used by the  ...

& J$ C4 r/ R) \& ^QWE321:　这些数据来源于何处？是否可靠？又无网站连接?

QWE321

http://www.bobtruman.com/Edmonton_SFH_stats/page_1918017.html

小曲

原帖由 水管工 于 2007-10-17 10:23 发表
* J) C! d/ h9 m/ F
: R1 N0 B- W' X% ^. u  b
  W, Y7 {) e6 g" H% QI think a lot of investors and speculators are quitting from the market, it is too hard for them to make money. Instead, they are dumping their houses now to make a profit.

WST

原帖由 Z 于 2007-10-17 07:36 发表
2 [9 x0 v/ r; R) m: `1）房价持续下跌，每尺从303跌到295。
2）成交房里大房子比重上升，使得每尺单价下跌但总的中位价上升。
$ P5 h8 t+ F5 \* C2 }1 Y3）存量惊人。每年秋冬，存量都会锐减。但现在是持平。考虑到季节因素，存量其实是增加了。

6 l0 \2 ?! C$ w5 \6 `
+ D. Y! t+ W4 U' k下半年，存量通常会持续增加，以卡城为例，参考下图：


( B" ]9 ?1 `7 J
只有去年例外，存量在年末锐减。

WST

上图为days inventory 和 总存量有不同。总存量在年末的确大减。
/ e7 P1 v0 w! p看来，观察days inventory 更重要。