Single Family info update Oct 1-10

QWE321

Edmonton Single Family Home
7 k) q1 L% Y* zMLS Statistics(Unofficial)
# U/ N  f2 i. [  _Includes Edmonton, St Albert, Sherwood Park, Spruce Grove, Stony Plain
# s9 C7 l" g" v3 A  m$ X" e& mNote: These areas do not coincide with the criteria used by the Edmonton Real Estate Board

/ L( Z- b! K# J* n+ lDate      Inventory  New Listings Added  Sales  30-Day Avg Price 30-Day Median Price SP/SF DOM Sales/NewListing Ratio  

2 Q+ @9 ^& f7 i. hOct 1-10 4879 678 185 429,254 394,000 295 40 27%

# S( L6 F4 K& I! Y3 i  D/ NSep 2007 5030 2214 515 426,984 390,000 303 41 23%
1 X1 Q; S& }! |8 F+ _  _
Aug 2007 4656 2108 635 429,889 395,000 314 36 30%
" F+ ?. v+ v2 o4 C
1 B# G) @) e/ L# M8 |" uJul 2007
NA
2328
# p$ w3 T6 l! O; n 717
442,752
, v; n. Z" U2 x 410,000
320
28
! _. d% D9 k! \2 _ 31%
# V  `  \1 v$ }0 r
Jun 2007
* D# T* M; }1 g* p NA
8 b5 ]' B* d- l# z 2661
1011
) J8 G+ H: Q9 N9 j" T 442,817
. I" V" {- g- B' ]  ~/ ^$ ~ 409,000
1 k& l& K  @! o. f$ p2 Z 328
9 Y4 O7 ]! p/ Y' W 22
38%

, s& r4 l# F) F6 s- DMay 2007
' a! o9 O. e6 i9 w; O, m NA
" r# P" p* A. o, }! l( ?: x- S! [( }- J" } 2288
1261
2 L) M6 ]0 i  i' | 451,216
415,000
322
1 ^( p' S9 W  m# ]; q! s! t9 G 19
55%

紫光

存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
2 Z6 |) ~/ u+ U( t: _鉴定完毕！

WST

看来，存货似已见顶。
2 \$ P" X9 |! S9 B1 _; t这几天，在街上又见现金收购房子的广告。

yj151

景之白干

原帖由 紫光 于 2007-10-16 22:03 发表
* r$ u0 O* _7 j7 E) ?3 G: e1 R存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
1 B) \% |# ]% U  A" m- k- O鉴定完毕！

! Z3 `) L- @/ o' f; }用十天的数据来和30天的比较，鉴定结果可靠吗？

Z

1）房价持续下跌，每尺从303跌到295。
2）成交房里大房子比重上升，使得每尺单价下跌但总的中位价上升。
' e" G8 {) V% T3）存量惊人。每年秋冬，存量都会锐减。但现在是持平。考虑到季节因素，存量其实是增加了。

Z

原帖由 紫光 于 2007-10-16 22:03 发表
  a; {5 F% U/ X存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
) ]0 Q6 S8 V( S# z0 ^- B8 n+ y鉴定完毕！

6 ]# Q* w  c% B8 K) K呵呵，太不专业了吧。
6 B0 B- v$ y& O
8 \2 ?% Z0 G- A新存量 = 旧存量 + 新列量 - 新销量 - 下市量

就是说， 存量变化 = 新存量 - 旧存量 = 新列量 - 新销量 - 下市量 = 678 -185 - 下市量
) V, o  N. }: [/ O1 [' j; Z4 {
& c$ m) V$ \8 q) }# z这里面我们没有下市量的数据。你简单的回避新增的678和未知的下市量，你的算法也太粗糙了。

QWE321

Don't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

judyzh

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 08:21 发表
! ?0 y: |7 [% I/ f! G! oDon't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

; R( V: T# f: n) B$ F
: n" x' Z& O! }& v2 |

紫光

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 08:21 发表
1 p; f- g8 X8 w6 c7 G2 |Don't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

; ?. H& F0 E- o9 D5 N# t0 o, E

QWE321

In average sale 3000 per month, but last 6 months, the sales between 1000 to 2000.
: _2 ^2 n0 o2 R' {Is the mean there are other 6000 potential buyers there?
How about all these potential buyers start taking their action?
8 `0 \& V9 m6 Z6 mThat is what i say half full or half empty.
good luck for people seeking their house.

水管工

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 10:09 发表
( u% V+ T. g  E. B; {; h1 gIn average sale 3000 per month, but last 6 months, the sales between 1000 to 2000.
Is the mean there are other 6000 potential buyers there?
$ h) B+ ]  ^! `4 M. sHow about all these potential buyers start taking the ...

% ]2 m2 [" p1 J. T' h6 t( PI think a lot of investors and speculators are quitting from the market, it is too hard for them to make money. Instead, they are dumping their houses now to make a profit.

WST

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-16 16:13 发表
/ P" p* ?  j. X! a2 KEdmonton Single Family Home
/ m! V$ S4 `* g  P8 r" n) HMLS Statistics(Unofficial)
Includes Edmonton, St Albert, Sherwood Park, Spruce Grove, Stony Plain
Note: These areas do not coincide with the criteria used by the  ...

9 E$ a% h+ s+ p$ T2 }+ @% `QWE321:　这些数据来源于何处？是否可靠？又无网站连接?

QWE321

http://www.bobtruman.com/Edmonton_SFH_stats/page_1918017.html

小曲

原帖由 水管工 于 2007-10-17 10:23 发表


I think a lot of investors and speculators are quitting from the market, it is too hard for them to make money. Instead, they are dumping their houses now to make a profit.

# ?! g' t8 J) y' J2 @# B& f

WST

原帖由 Z 于 2007-10-17 07:36 发表
1）房价持续下跌，每尺从303跌到295。
: [9 k) S- {  v. j4 l7 `& G2）成交房里大房子比重上升，使得每尺单价下跌但总的中位价上升。
3 u8 O, t1 S! P3 Y3）存量惊人。每年秋冬，存量都会锐减。但现在是持平。考虑到季节因素，存量其实是增加了。

3 u  B6 d. @4 B下半年，存量通常会持续增加，以卡城为例，参考下图：

2 G# ]1 K) j- ?9 Q( D
: q  _# F: e* g6 X
' n( v: ~- B% i4 Y1 M' ]只有去年例外，存量在年末锐减。

WST

上图为days inventory 和 总存量有不同。总存量在年末的确大减。
+ S" W1 \9 `/ m6 k$ @看来，观察days inventory 更重要。