Single Family info update Oct 1-10

QWE321

Edmonton Single Family Home
MLS Statistics(Unofficial)
: n- ~* N% Q) I8 N* |( |* b; o( {Includes Edmonton, St Albert, Sherwood Park, Spruce Grove, Stony Plain
Note: These areas do not coincide with the criteria used by the Edmonton Real Estate Board

+ O: ^2 i2 C; Q# V6 A$ d" KDate      Inventory  New Listings Added  Sales  30-Day Avg Price 30-Day Median Price SP/SF DOM Sales/NewListing Ratio  
" ~6 n% P! d  r* z7 w
Oct 1-10 4879 678 185 429,254 394,000 295 40 27%
9 p6 b  Y( G! w! F+ X; ~- S" X
7 c, e+ ^( s* A# ISep 2007 5030 2214 515 426,984 390,000 303 41 23%
6 o1 [; M2 s6 x9 }4 m0 U
7 F: M( I, a9 BAug 2007 4656 2108 635 429,889 395,000 314 36 30%
1 k3 q) f: ~0 a
) n% ]! r1 T* b# r- k( O% W" _Jul 2007
NA
2328
0 ^9 I  F  x* w' D, G* ~1 B 717
" G$ @) i& O0 [% z/ m" Y 442,752
410,000
) W4 Y- W  v. ?+ f2 M& I$ V 320
  ^0 V. s! y3 O2 h) n/ H, w 28
/ Z3 U0 s8 ]7 f5 ?  p 31%
% n1 k1 E0 T+ d* x, J
2 [$ K, G& g5 V. x; mJun 2007
NA
* f1 @: x- `$ g* Y, H: V! z7 n; U 2661
9 X6 O1 f6 u- ~ 1011
+ C+ Z: H1 u, R# y# f- I" J' u- [ 442,817
409,000
2 ^! ~+ u2 q% [) D 328
7 m+ V+ T0 l3 R8 s 22
38%
3 p+ L3 T9 Y/ w( a8 q. A& g0 n
May 2007
NA
' H# O) T8 X, T6 b* r, c 2288
  j, q% g7 m% e" _! e3 t' R0 a4 B 1261
8 M. y! c5 L$ w  {5 [4 x" ~4 @ 451,216
415,000
322
19
55%

紫光

存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
鉴定完毕！

WST

看来，存货似已见顶。
4 }1 O2 F8 [; J; W) I这几天，在街上又见现金收购房子的广告。

yj151

景之白干

原帖由 紫光 于 2007-10-16 22:03 发表
存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
鉴定完毕！

, H& D$ O0 ~/ s6 B5 ?: Q: G
用十天的数据来和30天的比较，鉴定结果可靠吗？

Z

1）房价持续下跌，每尺从303跌到295。
' F$ Y- ]; D2 g; F6 I8 D2）成交房里大房子比重上升，使得每尺单价下跌但总的中位价上升。
3）存量惊人。每年秋冬，存量都会锐减。但现在是持平。考虑到季节因素，存量其实是增加了。

Z

原帖由 紫光 于 2007-10-16 22:03 发表
+ y. i1 v3 H; S: P; Q2 h存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
鉴定完毕！

' w5 F+ r8 R# Q  |3 q- s
1 X. p' A: A8 b1 F呵呵，太不专业了吧。
: O% N5 u! q! Y3 p/ R
新存量 = 旧存量 + 新列量 - 新销量 - 下市量
: ?  p# r1 [$ |- K
就是说， 存量变化 = 新存量 - 旧存量 = 新列量 - 新销量 - 下市量 = 678 -185 - 下市量
, T! m# W: a7 @8 C
) o# ]7 T" a7 `5 N  R" A这里面我们没有下市量的数据。你简单的回避新增的678和未知的下市量，你的算法也太粗糙了。

QWE321

Don't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

judyzh

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 08:21 发表
4 K& x% t9 L* S0 L9 d& |Don't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

紫光

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 08:21 发表
Don't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

! ]5 ~7 k) n$ H

QWE321

In average sale 3000 per month, but last 6 months, the sales between 1000 to 2000.
8 ]% N! D% u$ n9 Q5 [% Z' N; ~% RIs the mean there are other 6000 potential buyers there?
How about all these potential buyers start taking their action?
That is what i say half full or half empty.
good luck for people seeking their house.

水管工

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 10:09 发表
1 G( [# R& }2 x: Q* M+ h* Z& \In average sale 3000 per month, but last 6 months, the sales between 1000 to 2000.
Is the mean there are other 6000 potential buyers there?
: _# q5 ~# G% K& R7 d5 K+ QHow about all these potential buyers start taking the ...

% U( @0 b" }0 T! `% X; v
I think a lot of investors and speculators are quitting from the market, it is too hard for them to make money. Instead, they are dumping their houses now to make a profit.

WST

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-16 16:13 发表
Edmonton Single Family Home
4 s6 O* U" K) b, ]MLS Statistics(Unofficial)
/ o( h9 N3 c$ oIncludes Edmonton, St Albert, Sherwood Park, Spruce Grove, Stony Plain
Note: These areas do not coincide with the criteria used by the  ...

QWE321:　这些数据来源于何处？是否可靠？又无网站连接?

QWE321

http://www.bobtruman.com/Edmonton_SFH_stats/page_1918017.html

小曲

原帖由 水管工 于 2007-10-17 10:23 发表
* ~2 \; U9 o: g/ P+ C9 e
) y: {. Z8 H0 a' Q( B
I think a lot of investors and speculators are quitting from the market, it is too hard for them to make money. Instead, they are dumping their houses now to make a profit.

- a0 W1 Q+ Y1 v

WST

原帖由 Z 于 2007-10-17 07:36 发表
  s6 L) K/ B+ N; \+ P; @% o1）房价持续下跌，每尺从303跌到295。
! E- ^8 p+ q/ J1 g! c2）成交房里大房子比重上升，使得每尺单价下跌但总的中位价上升。
, S  }: _% K7 _3）存量惊人。每年秋冬，存量都会锐减。但现在是持平。考虑到季节因素，存量其实是增加了。

# u0 x! p! {" A6 f下半年，存量通常会持续增加，以卡城为例，参考下图：

8 v- H8 f! T9 n$ G" j( ^

* M0 L- @# {' Q+ d3 q只有去年例外，存量在年末锐减。

WST

上图为days inventory 和 总存量有不同。总存量在年末的确大减。
看来，观察days inventory 更重要。