Single Family info update Oct 1-10

QWE321

Edmonton Single Family Home
! u' I+ e, E3 RMLS Statistics(Unofficial)
Includes Edmonton, St Albert, Sherwood Park, Spruce Grove, Stony Plain
Note: These areas do not coincide with the criteria used by the Edmonton Real Estate Board
5 l* I& e% }3 @3 S/ G
Date      Inventory  New Listings Added  Sales  30-Day Avg Price 30-Day Median Price SP/SF DOM Sales/NewListing Ratio  
6 I1 E) A4 z$ ^1 @3 f
1 [4 c" k4 b: y# p7 i4 c: M2 w; ]7 gOct 1-10 4879 678 185 429,254 394,000 295 40 27%
/ h( h- A. M9 n- b) w5 e" N, r
Sep 2007 5030 2214 515 426,984 390,000 303 41 23%

0 D  ^* T5 @0 @. c: z* \4 BAug 2007 4656 2108 635 429,889 395,000 314 36 30%

Jul 2007
NA
2 N# |. ], ]/ u 2328
$ h% w8 x% |, N5 {4 D/ ^ 717
/ ~8 k3 I' X6 _  r# G' I+ E 442,752
. b$ Q  [$ P: U. [7 l 410,000
320
- K5 l) G+ n6 p9 O% _, M3 ~ 28
31%

4 i% k/ S$ ^( |+ RJun 2007
NA
2661
! I" o' c8 h7 k; m( c( { 1011
442,817
409,000
328
22
" S) o3 j8 }2 ~2 ~ 38%
. G% X0 }# B( f" t( L7 G
0 L  W, ]# x3 x8 H1 B0 R4 G  CMay 2007
NA
: [0 I) c  ?5 o3 }" ` 2288
" i4 y7 L! k* v. x* h' c  f 1261
451,216
415,000
- h  x! Y. V+ B) T/ d2 y8 Q 322
* ?& ^, m) a9 q/ a1 M2 t) J 19
8 v8 d9 C& ^. [ 55%

紫光

存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
" |) w, V6 P7 N5 n1 m7 j鉴定完毕！

WST

看来，存货似已见顶。
6 c# U. X) {, g6 R  h2 H' P这几天，在街上又见现金收购房子的广告。

yj151

景之白干

原帖由 紫光 于 2007-10-16 22:03 发表
存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
/ z9 t% W# b5 U- V" W- @$ n: y鉴定完毕！

7 I1 p% |3 S" E' D" b1 V* z% K5 w
6 f4 x6 q+ |. {% @用十天的数据来和30天的比较，鉴定结果可靠吗？

Z

1）房价持续下跌，每尺从303跌到295。
5 D4 B( [- l2 _: h+ }& \2）成交房里大房子比重上升，使得每尺单价下跌但总的中位价上升。
4 F6 {: Z: i& x2 h+ H/ \# C3）存量惊人。每年秋冬，存量都会锐减。但现在是持平。考虑到季节因素，存量其实是增加了。

Z

原帖由 紫光 于 2007-10-16 22:03 发表
存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
7 f" X- f. q) ?! z: \鉴定完毕！

) _& [$ m# p" H5 H0 a
+ S; c2 X2 D! Z, o: x呵呵，太不专业了吧。

新存量 = 旧存量 + 新列量 - 新销量 - 下市量

就是说， 存量变化 = 新存量 - 旧存量 = 新列量 - 新销量 - 下市量 = 678 -185 - 下市量

: }5 T3 \0 G. A: ]9 e/ b: S这里面我们没有下市量的数据。你简单的回避新增的678和未知的下市量，你的算法也太粗糙了。

QWE321

Don't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

judyzh

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 08:21 发表
# z- K; _0 y3 T( n6 g# B( ~' @4 b6 tDon't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

" T2 d4 w. Q# [5 v
* j: o* [0 R8 a. W7 Q

紫光

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 08:21 发表
Don't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

& [2 y$ @) U- f8 r4 b+ G, {: I

QWE321

In average sale 3000 per month, but last 6 months, the sales between 1000 to 2000.
Is the mean there are other 6000 potential buyers there?
. M# A* D8 G( P0 cHow about all these potential buyers start taking their action?
1 J! j3 E) {3 GThat is what i say half full or half empty.
good luck for people seeking their house.

水管工

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 10:09 发表
In average sale 3000 per month, but last 6 months, the sales between 1000 to 2000.
Is the mean there are other 6000 potential buyers there?
# E- N. g  a8 s/ V) FHow about all these potential buyers start taking the ...

I think a lot of investors and speculators are quitting from the market, it is too hard for them to make money. Instead, they are dumping their houses now to make a profit.

WST

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-16 16:13 发表
Edmonton Single Family Home
& U5 z( A9 r; Y1 |MLS Statistics(Unofficial)
Includes Edmonton, St Albert, Sherwood Park, Spruce Grove, Stony Plain
( v6 l4 B& j7 X( l( t) m9 nNote: These areas do not coincide with the criteria used by the  ...

QWE321:　这些数据来源于何处？是否可靠？又无网站连接?

QWE321

http://www.bobtruman.com/Edmonton_SFH_stats/page_1918017.html

小曲

原帖由 水管工 于 2007-10-17 10:23 发表
) |2 c# f+ E/ K( a- v% c( O4 f
; m- Z5 A+ g5 H3 f! ]
9 `4 m! R, E/ N8 h: T! W1 ~8 q' \I think a lot of investors and speculators are quitting from the market, it is too hard for them to make money. Instead, they are dumping their houses now to make a profit.

+ z2 g7 w; \. k0 d+ q: W' N4 c

WST

原帖由 Z 于 2007-10-17 07:36 发表
1）房价持续下跌，每尺从303跌到295。
2）成交房里大房子比重上升，使得每尺单价下跌但总的中位价上升。
( h: z9 X6 n0 S/ n8 k- |# Z# F3）存量惊人。每年秋冬，存量都会锐减。但现在是持平。考虑到季节因素，存量其实是增加了。

! b# x& N' O0 {0 H2 P
2 }2 O! A/ O( J) {& e3 [下半年，存量通常会持续增加，以卡城为例，参考下图：



5 W/ `4 e: X  k" w只有去年例外，存量在年末锐减。

WST

上图为days inventory 和 总存量有不同。总存量在年末的确大减。
看来，观察days inventory 更重要。