Single Family info update Oct 1-10

QWE321

Edmonton Single Family Home
, j/ K" {; f' H% n0 y) {7 DMLS Statistics(Unofficial)
Includes Edmonton, St Albert, Sherwood Park, Spruce Grove, Stony Plain
0 w5 B( p: M- c! m: zNote: These areas do not coincide with the criteria used by the Edmonton Real Estate Board
; y  u4 k$ X: T0 D; l% k; k- x8 B
Date      Inventory  New Listings Added  Sales  30-Day Avg Price 30-Day Median Price SP/SF DOM Sales/NewListing Ratio  

Oct 1-10 4879 678 185 429,254 394,000 295 40 27%

Sep 2007 5030 2214 515 426,984 390,000 303 41 23%
5 w, ~# T; M0 q2 s8 V0 \
6 J" d; n# p. r1 oAug 2007 4656 2108 635 429,889 395,000 314 36 30%

$ W) ?! T6 J/ {' Q# X' D, yJul 2007
NA
2328
717
2 y( V2 D, \1 h, E. G1 e 442,752
0 T9 g. G& K/ Q8 d+ i* V+ b( V 410,000
320
28
& S5 c) j$ N- a0 l" y 31%

Jun 2007
+ c1 Q2 ~1 h9 H$ d0 @/ } NA
2661
1011
/ G6 [* O) o; {$ {2 z: A$ f 442,817
0 _7 E$ G- `+ n& r3 F% F 409,000
- s* c; p4 i6 L( |7 } 328
% `& Q! i2 a8 k% q( |# ^! Y# j 22
38%

May 2007
! ?0 f" C0 X5 w4 x: R3 e. U! o3 @ NA
2288
' u% Z$ p% r9 j+ I 1261
; Z7 e' h# G2 f2 g 451,216
( f: l1 p% m6 E 415,000
: O0 h! U' j( T& Q$ b 322
19
# R4 n* s6 o- g 55%

紫光

存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
鉴定完毕！

WST

看来，存货似已见顶。
这几天，在街上又见现金收购房子的广告。

yj151

景之白干

原帖由 紫光 于 2007-10-16 22:03 发表
存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
* z# |- d5 `* k0 P$ O4 A9 t* v鉴定完毕！

用十天的数据来和30天的比较，鉴定结果可靠吗？

Z

1）房价持续下跌，每尺从303跌到295。
2）成交房里大房子比重上升，使得每尺单价下跌但总的中位价上升。
3）存量惊人。每年秋冬，存量都会锐减。但现在是持平。考虑到季节因素，存量其实是增加了。

Z

原帖由 紫光 于 2007-10-16 22:03 发表
! }, l- d7 d/ L7 m0 i% B存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
) G) q3 P8 s' E. D8 |鉴定完毕！

: h' D! P" \% K3 I# R- D9 i
3 k) F+ k; J5 d5 s7 S- R" Y  j呵呵，太不专业了吧。
( x7 K6 `# q8 d3 s; N/ R+ w2 h
新存量 = 旧存量 + 新列量 - 新销量 - 下市量
8 ~6 Y8 o. r- `2 {" K8 H& H: w
就是说， 存量变化 = 新存量 - 旧存量 = 新列量 - 新销量 - 下市量 = 678 -185 - 下市量

这里面我们没有下市量的数据。你简单的回避新增的678和未知的下市量，你的算法也太粗糙了。

QWE321

Don't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

judyzh

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 08:21 发表
Don't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

紫光

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 08:21 发表
Don't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

" M6 m2 N) \! Y+ F7 X

QWE321

In average sale 3000 per month, but last 6 months, the sales between 1000 to 2000.
Is the mean there are other 6000 potential buyers there?
How about all these potential buyers start taking their action?
( j6 ~' j9 i% V( i* W' T, kThat is what i say half full or half empty.
5 c+ K" I1 I1 A2 u' U7 `good luck for people seeking their house.

水管工

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 10:09 发表
In average sale 3000 per month, but last 6 months, the sales between 1000 to 2000.
Is the mean there are other 6000 potential buyers there?
% C/ ^- t! x3 |7 w, @How about all these potential buyers start taking the ...

I think a lot of investors and speculators are quitting from the market, it is too hard for them to make money. Instead, they are dumping their houses now to make a profit.

WST

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-16 16:13 发表
Edmonton Single Family Home
5 s6 h* J3 A  r$ ~) Q: \9 \! TMLS Statistics(Unofficial)
4 F) R, I/ X4 }5 ?4 wIncludes Edmonton, St Albert, Sherwood Park, Spruce Grove, Stony Plain
+ k5 \$ n2 J( p3 p6 `0 L( h, GNote: These areas do not coincide with the criteria used by the  ...

& T0 d4 O9 M, {1 z/ o( }QWE321:　这些数据来源于何处？是否可靠？又无网站连接?

QWE321

http://www.bobtruman.com/Edmonton_SFH_stats/page_1918017.html

小曲

原帖由 水管工 于 2007-10-17 10:23 发表


I think a lot of investors and speculators are quitting from the market, it is too hard for them to make money. Instead, they are dumping their houses now to make a profit.

! S/ p5 Q2 q8 q! r! x8 @  l

WST

原帖由 Z 于 2007-10-17 07:36 发表
6 P; U* [; T9 G1）房价持续下跌，每尺从303跌到295。
2）成交房里大房子比重上升，使得每尺单价下跌但总的中位价上升。
: Z- e8 U) o7 m6 N& m  l/ [1 z3）存量惊人。每年秋冬，存量都会锐减。但现在是持平。考虑到季节因素，存量其实是增加了。

% ~3 q, u3 M5 l" U. |- s, J* G/ |  }
下半年，存量通常会持续增加，以卡城为例，参考下图：
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只有去年例外，存量在年末锐减。

WST

上图为days inventory 和 总存量有不同。总存量在年末的确大减。
3 S/ \8 z; H1 f3 {% C; F8 @看来，观察days inventory 更重要。