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Oilsands an emerging global growth star
ExxonMobil forecast predicts output of four million barrels a day by 2030
, x: {7 P4 V8 OGordon Jaremko, The Edmonton Journal
" ?. @' B8 ^% gPublished: 2:37 am
EDMONTON - As oil leaps towards a new landmark high of $100 US a barrel, the world's top investor-owned producer has singled out Alberta as an emerging global star of production growth.
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Oilsands output will multiply fourfold to more than four million barrels daily by 2030, ExxonMobil Corp. predicts in a new international industry outlook report. And that forecast errs on the conservative side by projecting "fundamentals" of demand and supply trends instead of relying on prices to stay sky-high, ExxonMobil spokesman Allan Jeffers said Tuesday.
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Oil jumped to $96.67 a barrel, up $2.69 in New York trading Tuesday on fears of global supply disruptions after storms battered North Sea production platforms and guerrillas attacked a pipeline in Yemen.
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Gasoline prices in Edmonton were 99.9 cents per litre at many stations on Tuesday.
) J3 B2 N7 m6 Z+ m- q9 r7 A! VLarry Wong, The Journal
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- p, z5 ^/ c, \Edmonton refinery postings for Alberta output Tuesday ranged from $60.74 for low-grade heavy crude to $91.11 for premium oilsands synthetic production. The Canadian benchmarks are translations of international prices, adjusted for pipeline tolls and currency exchange rates.
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) f( V) |) W( N$ _" C5 VExxonMobil's high oilsands expectations are realistic and reasonable, said Bob Dunbar, an Alberta industry veteran whose Strategy West Inc. specializes in the field.
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% h4 v5 ?8 j4 K# H2 tOutput from the northern bitumen belt would grow to six million barrels a day if all known projects were built on their announced schedules, Dunbar said.

8 S$ T- B5 \9 B& y( ?- {/ pWhile no one believes the current spike will last, the looming new record high is seen as confirming that a new era of premium prices has arrived to stay, he said.
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When the oilsands rush began in the late 1990s developers only relied on markets to stay in a range of $20 to $30 a barrel. To be profitable, new projects today count on sustained averages in a higher band of $60 to $70, Dunbar estimated.

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