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Attention Real Estate Reporters: - A3 {+ E1 h3 t: q4 k8 w
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Despite US housing woes Canadian real estate remains upbeat
5 G1 L6 T- v6 L0 L, | TORONTO, Nov. 5 /CNW/ - Leading real estate experts are predicting the US5 p% v" Y2 M9 I8 T9 q) T3 }
commercial real estate market will slow in 2008 and follow a similar pattern
' \$ E" Q! _# G: U2 Z( x" \6 Y% V* bas the current residential market. However, according to the annual Emerging6 ^6 S3 Q; ?1 x. x/ k4 y! c
Trends in Real Estate 2008 report, released by PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC)2 N+ t: ?" G( [1 d! Z3 H% [
and the Urban Land Institute (ULI), their Canadian counterparts are much more
8 w n! b$ ~9 q+ r7 u. x# ?upbeat.
) f6 X# H* i* s/ A' q- c Now in its 29th year, Emerging Trends is the oldest, most highly regarded8 M+ I* W/ |& E, a+ c
annual industry outlook for the real estate industry. The report reflects' G, `" C2 j! A# C4 M5 Q
interviews with and surveys of more than 600 of the industry's leading real
( G2 n4 Y7 g7 \2 q3 O; o& Zestate experts, including investors, developers, property company
" H- Z. t" O1 t; m; orepresentatives, lenders, brokers and consultants in both Canada and the US.
. S4 ]; q$ ^) g1 wOther versions of this report are conducted in countries around the world1 ~% z9 W" W& t" P* F( g
including Asia Pacific and Europe.
/ X- e7 j) i2 I7 W# S6 F According to Chris Potter, PwC partner and leader of the firm's Canadian. ~) e! R, H9 C% G( i& I8 Z( I. W
Real Estate Tax practice, Canada benefits from a more conservative investment
6 w. L) _4 x# h, R& p5 {environment than the US. "In Canada, institution-dominated markets appear to6 A. E& W' ~! T' a( E- `: t' o5 E$ }
be avoiding 'transaction mania', but real estate values have reached record0 O" v; `" }: L! Q
highs and a strong economy has accelerated tenant demand for space."
9 p9 s. l/ {" ~7 f* B1 D2 E According to American respondents, a healthy correction south of the( [: U, k9 A5 Q- b
border will likely bypass long-term investors but penalize late-to-the-game
& v7 N( [* N& S. C' L i% wspeculators and overleveraged buyers. Canadian respondents to the survey5 n. x' J/ [$ e+ s! d0 t
remain positive about sidestepping any serious impacts of this possible US' }0 @9 x( o4 I/ N A O3 p0 `
correction. Close to 36% view their prospects for profitability in 2008 to be
+ s. p1 Z! r _7 C* }) Nvery good and a further 22.4% say they're excellent.5 G h B" @* a! ?7 G+ r* \
The strongest areas of real estate business activity for Canadian9 f0 N$ Q: B. m( z+ A2 w) \
respondents is predicted to be within real estate services, followed by
' ?4 s; l( C: Z. r8 i" [# |! Pcommercial/multifamily development and homebuilding/residential land8 k- \" q4 n* j# _4 d% j7 d
development. All property sectors share positive prospects across the country1 d0 \, Z9 J2 i- E
especially industrial and retail with respondents, on average, stating
, |# c% L! x8 U9 kdevelopment prospects are expected to be modestly good to good. The) v8 i2 O- d& R. U3 |/ c- F7 ^
residential for-sale market is also expected to fair well, but might need to$ W, m7 u7 q( c+ b7 Y" h
take a breather as homebuilders cannot keep up with the current pace and! X& o9 M2 Z. i/ t2 v. `' e
single-family housing looks overpriced.) |, O5 F% l9 X7 H7 L4 r
Office stock is seeing limited inventories and dated product fill up with: G; M% ~: P( G0 p3 Y* U: |
tenants. Except for Montreal, where office vacancies are nearing 9%. Canadian
' D/ p5 a2 _3 N/ Imetropolitan areas boast below 5% vacancies, and rents have room to push
2 h: J$ Q! i1 k! yhigher. The survey is also showing that costs and land scarcity is limiting
! j+ r6 [( p. X& s1 l: e% Y' l% r* ?new development. Hotel investment and development prospects are modestly good,# o3 B# _. p. J
and most respondents rate this sector either a buy or a hold. Rental
2 O; F) P, `+ W# b) e) |; rapartments are doing well in major cities with high immigration flows. Primary0 X$ d: F& ^; S: T7 j
western cities - Vancouver, Calgary, and Edmonton - are veering toward housing/ O' c# Z( a+ g
shortages as workers, attracted by a plethora of well-paying jobs, pour into
% e0 ?4 A# K- b1 M5 q* gthe energy zone. Apartment occupancies are soaring in these areas. Development
# g' l4 j% D# M! Lin other regions remains difficult because of costs and land scarcity.$ F; G7 N; W0 j+ z
3 K' N& i* ]7 m% @; i* O/ r0 a Canadian Markets to Watch
; G* M. o$ y/ b! O& e1 P2 R D( E1 q3 [/ Y* P2 Q8 K+ q( L0 E+ N( ~
The report comments on how Canadians like to live and work in central
3 b3 W P4 G. E& R8 G4 wcities, as long as they can afford it. If housing is too pricey in 24-hour
$ \+ L# P; r0 S4 r$ Sneighbourhoods, people move to inner-ring suburbs or beyond and commute back6 r+ \# J( o3 d) k" X6 X& W' P5 y- N
into the cores. Investors, especially the institutions, are concentrated in
8 p7 F+ _% Y5 U9 cdowntown areas too. Planners and developers focus on infill and more vertical; ~4 k* B6 o+ Z( g2 e3 W/ S2 U
projects, which reinforce the urban cores. The hot-growth energy cities out
" ^& Q- O- b. p8 _" Kwest - Calgary and Edmonton - score the highest ratings for investment' a0 q9 a+ S$ Z' b& U" ?* q' Z
prospects, development, and for-sale housing, although it is not certain' S. P3 z8 O5 h e5 \( U
whether the recent announcements on royalties will have any effect on this.
, }3 H, j$ w' Q8 R, g* O9 MToronto, Canada's premier global pathway city, and Vancouver also have high. @( C0 C% e/ N* v( z& N* i; w( b
ratings. Ottawa and Montreal follow, with Halifax lagging.' x3 T1 B4 t, ^: ]! E0 `& M
x/ Y% f3 v$ L* |, S4 f! M2 q Calgary/Edmonton
) l3 M; D3 k. U( r+ y8 B* S9 Z5 l5 x7 q9 u! R: x% y+ w
Calgary is the Canada's "resource" capital and North America's number-one
) e0 S0 ?8 _# U0 m2 Aboomtown. Survey respondents foresee strong buys for all sectors: 53.5% give a* P5 e5 U( x! L$ Q8 Y/ @( k( m n
buy recommendation for Hotel Property, 52.8% for Industrial/Distribution,1 t, W8 ^- W8 K' w% p
48.1% for Retail and Apartment Residential and 44.6% for Office Property.. R5 T3 V+ c7 i
Furthermore, on average the majority of respondents see Calgary For-Sale
( @4 p: Z, R1 U/ Y8 p! m2 lHomebuilding prospects as very good. Edmonton is closely mimicking the
( t+ K5 }1 n1 r ICalgary-style growth wave and as long as demand for energy resources stays4 _6 a+ ~1 o% \5 L
strong, this market will continue to do well.: p) C% Q" T* O& S4 h+ h
! Q7 `2 [! n4 W Vancouver
) I. _' ^- {& a5 k( O! N
7 q5 @4 N6 S* z Vancouver's diversified economy is roaring, the mining industry is4 w' V1 w e% m, A. j
booming and the city provides a large port and a high-tech center. Outrageous7 z9 ]1 z; g8 E0 r" ?3 V) M- `+ R
real estate prices frustrate homebuyers and commercial investors and the
7 {+ z! U$ T ~3 @9 ^2 imarket is extremely hard to crack. The 2010 Winter Olympic Games is also a9 L D. n' Z9 Z6 \
growth driver and accordingly 44.7% of respondents give Vancouver a buy6 N8 L) Z6 w: u6 l
recommendation for Hotel Property. A further 43.5% give a buy Retail, 41.3%% G& ?" I! A$ _' i' S
for Industrial/Distribution and 36.7% for Office Property followed by 34.1%; D9 S/ h' R; Y
for Apartment Residential property. Vancouver also ranks in the good to very+ j2 a* f Y* {* i5 J+ U
good mark for for-sale homebuilding prospects./ G% F1 X+ ?. K9 I/ |! J
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Toronto
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7 D, U, t2 ^4 Q6 w) M5 {4 m5 ? Toronto ranks as a major global pathway destination, 24-hour city, and
8 w' l* |( d2 A7 s# k" M& k. Jmanufacturing hub. Compared with other national financial centers, the city is& D0 E$ K8 V5 `1 M5 T
relatively inexpensive. However, the rising loonie is hurting manufacturing1 f9 z0 X. \) [4 {6 v6 u
industries, and clouds over the US economy threaten to stall out momentum.
- a- I. y9 e. j" d5 ~" zThree new office towers are under construction, adding 3 million new square
0 ?! ^( C2 d r/ xfeet of office space. Notably, Office (49.1%), Industrial (46.2%) and/ Z1 S1 \9 g" R* Y
Apartments (40.8%) are given solid buys.
% ? q. A. p; ~0 p6 ]7 C: P8 b2 F# n/ V* j
Montreal
4 j ^* W& j/ W2 }% d+ R3 t1 W( Z& J7 x/ y; Y) G- ~# [$ y( O
Montreal continues to face concerns about market stability and overall, j- F8 ^4 N+ j' [* }! ^
growth prospects as major companies no longer choose it as a place to set up
; C' M' E8 @8 R. C5 S1 B7 S- e, gshop. But, plenty of government offices fill space. Of the larger cities in" \5 ]; @3 @ x
Canada, Montreal ranks lowest as a "buy" recommendation in all real estate" l( P2 c( ?5 H g& z! x8 I' w
sectors. However, respondents generally rated all Montreal real estate sectors/ w: y- n. g0 g; P% J; G# j- J; H
higher as a "hold" recommendation.
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The report notes that best bets for investors for the coming years
6 [5 Z2 P4 ~" p; p- ~: x. G6 Pinclude a focus on all property sectors in the high-growth western energy
1 E% ?% G/ [2 {2 rmarkets, hold on central business district office space, develop infill condos# m. ?) g7 ]: |
near subways stops in Toronto, buy infill sites wherever you can and invest7 t8 z& T, S+ T( J0 P, {
overseas. Potter concludes, "Domestic opportunities are too limited at current
8 r t' I: N. j+ G. B- F1 h1 W0 ?+ dprices."* H: U/ I. }! g, R7 \' H: {
A copy of Emerging Trends in Real Estate(R) 2008 is available at
% j2 s, m* c/ s( M/ _& Zwww.uli.org or www.pwc.com/imre.! z2 Q" x2 ~( h
2 ]/ s' q" b# }" J, a$ e About PricewaterhouseCoopers2 k8 z. O; } Z' W% X! G0 N( F! U
; A# Q6 e; W! \: @; ?. j- b7 @ PricewaterhouseCoopers (www.pwc.com) provides industry-focused assurance,3 }4 y! |, i* a7 C" i. S
tax and advisory services to build public trust and enhance value for its
) M, _, F5 D$ P: {! q2 Gclients and their stakeholders. More than 140,000 people in 149 countries/ Y5 y9 p: C9 z9 b$ v' b
across our network share their thinking, experience and solutions to develop
! \, r9 w, N2 d( ~9 Z; h, Ifresh perspectives and practical advice. Now celebrating 100 years of, ^( d& `9 p$ ?* l" |: v
excellence in Canada, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP (www.pwc.com/ca) and its' B; t. A9 L+ o
related entities have more than 5,200 partners and staff in offices across the
8 J0 G) s8 z) N' H! y e: Jcountry.6 {1 K6 H+ ?8 E+ }: v
"PricewaterhouseCoopers" refers to PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, an Ontario8 B7 s; f' O4 r" e. A5 r
limited liability partnership, or, as the context requires, the& H- q3 \: ]/ q( M
PricewaterhouseCoopers global network or other member firms of the network,$ K+ F) ]1 u! |+ i& m U! i
each of which is a separate and independent legal entity.
+ F) T8 i: M f( n2 _: @2 h
, b1 |* \( z# U- z" O8 R( w9 G About the Urban Land Institute: Z, W* I) w* u) i; k K7 v3 Q
- w2 a( U" w3 {+ x0 h8 i The Urban Land Institute (www.uli.org) is a nonprofit education and) |4 F& R- `% K% V
research institute supported by its members. Its mission is to provide m, P2 g- E/ ~2 a! B Z0 M4 H
leadership in the responsible use of land and in sustaining and creating
9 s% J% p$ n2 k$ {4 S/ m7 g, [+ Gthriving communities worldwide. Established in 1936, the Institute has more5 r6 O, l( h# S1 j! k. h
than 38,000 members representing all aspects of land use and development" E7 D% }+ U. A4 w4 B* |: `
disciplines.
8 Q5 U# S+ c, i1 @" D- u The Urban Land Institute is an active and growing organization in Canada./ [& }- U T) d0 y/ A0 t
With nearly 700 members across the country, Canada's first ULI District
" j+ _, |$ t/ |. q( d PCouncil was established in Toronto in 2005 and a second District Council is
; {7 b: Q6 c( Xnow being formed in British Columbia. The Toronto District Council will be
5 D$ y; h6 T6 C/ {( g: }" h7 R0 ohosting a special event on Emerging Trends in Real Estate on November 20th,
* H1 j3 T3 A- p# G: x6 ~2007, featuring Jonathan Miller, the principal author of the report, Blake+ @! h9 v* Z! \; c
Hutcheson, President of CB Richard Ellis Canada Ltd., and George Carras,/ n; Z0 a" e8 v4 M
President of RealNet Canada Inc. For more information on this event, please
9 G$ o- I1 s$ m+ z( ocall the Toronto District Council Coordinator at (647) 258-0017, or look on
5 B' A9 Q u1 o2 I! gthe web at www.uli.org/events/index.cfm?id=3066.
$ A0 X$ B# I6 k! D' @9 {; F& j4 r5 \( D2 J; X" v1 l' N" ?! U
, A9 ^0 U3 I' S( d. J
T* B! v. ~$ ]! a6 D" x7 KFor further information: Carolyn Forest, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP,
$ f/ ? P/ i4 Z: F. {(416) 814-5730, carolyn.forest@ca.pwc.com+ d* [) K4 S: O7 Y* z5 z
http://www.newswire.ca/en/releas ... r2007/05/c4080.html$ P" x7 o! a @3 G8 X+ E* J. ^. P
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