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Attention Real Estate Reporters: 8 u. N; [$ m E3 E4 [) O4 U
! A4 k( H8 v" {) ~. o3 VDespite US housing woes Canadian real estate remains upbeat
# c* l5 A9 K* C& Q TORONTO, Nov. 5 /CNW/ - Leading real estate experts are predicting the US
. ?- w0 m6 V: Ucommercial real estate market will slow in 2008 and follow a similar pattern8 [7 K* H: v# h( E: I+ X* D0 R
as the current residential market. However, according to the annual Emerging
: D$ o) M7 F0 d- l4 NTrends in Real Estate 2008 report, released by PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC)1 A3 P3 z. E5 g. C( B# F
and the Urban Land Institute (ULI), their Canadian counterparts are much more! O- x! p- b2 |4 ~9 d# E* K. J
upbeat.* [1 W5 A ^3 w; S" l
Now in its 29th year, Emerging Trends is the oldest, most highly regarded
7 I0 H) W" b6 m& vannual industry outlook for the real estate industry. The report reflects
8 j3 d7 Z1 K0 x; j* Ninterviews with and surveys of more than 600 of the industry's leading real
* F: r1 Y6 e( a O" L0 O- V5 ?estate experts, including investors, developers, property company; {; u7 h4 R9 e
representatives, lenders, brokers and consultants in both Canada and the US.
9 E7 ` P6 p/ b4 EOther versions of this report are conducted in countries around the world
1 y3 q2 W/ v L8 h D! C& cincluding Asia Pacific and Europe.
% _! n7 M& ]) [7 p4 b According to Chris Potter, PwC partner and leader of the firm's Canadian
( z) j7 r" ~- L: {9 |: cReal Estate Tax practice, Canada benefits from a more conservative investment
' s' W2 U( |7 o7 \/ ]# G: f6 |environment than the US. "In Canada, institution-dominated markets appear to
3 ^, M6 X- m% Q( xbe avoiding 'transaction mania', but real estate values have reached record4 z) u- L d- o8 z
highs and a strong economy has accelerated tenant demand for space.": Q$ `1 F3 p: F) T! |; H
According to American respondents, a healthy correction south of the
; U/ e1 D4 c' @3 B! g2 fborder will likely bypass long-term investors but penalize late-to-the-game. I0 `; k6 W# p
speculators and overleveraged buyers. Canadian respondents to the survey
3 Y- D/ [, `5 Z) l$ zremain positive about sidestepping any serious impacts of this possible US- n4 q" R" R) x" I* F( T
correction. Close to 36% view their prospects for profitability in 2008 to be
( W0 S- v$ \6 R# Xvery good and a further 22.4% say they're excellent.
* @6 {& O) ^: m# Y5 r' ?. W The strongest areas of real estate business activity for Canadian
/ R- a2 V; c2 R( I: Krespondents is predicted to be within real estate services, followed by
! `" H9 n, ^6 Z8 N, ecommercial/multifamily development and homebuilding/residential land
2 s, C- M1 x: \, \development. All property sectors share positive prospects across the country" a) s. Q* g; v( C6 O( c6 Y7 h$ C
especially industrial and retail with respondents, on average, stating
- p+ _5 k4 M" Ndevelopment prospects are expected to be modestly good to good. The4 g% ^" T- ^9 c* n) a6 y
residential for-sale market is also expected to fair well, but might need to0 i/ `% e1 I: h& p: z+ z7 }; g
take a breather as homebuilders cannot keep up with the current pace and/ a) u: b& p6 b. p0 m+ b; w- Z2 d
single-family housing looks overpriced.7 v0 g' B9 Q0 m
Office stock is seeing limited inventories and dated product fill up with
" U3 K& B7 h" {, [) c/ |' b) J" C4 Ttenants. Except for Montreal, where office vacancies are nearing 9%. Canadian; m; k8 q! e j8 E6 T) X' B" g
metropolitan areas boast below 5% vacancies, and rents have room to push
2 Y5 ~9 T( \) ~higher. The survey is also showing that costs and land scarcity is limiting* s/ O1 {3 R3 j/ W/ x6 A
new development. Hotel investment and development prospects are modestly good," f& f( C9 X- y) C4 U
and most respondents rate this sector either a buy or a hold. Rental7 m3 J+ b6 R& p- ^7 ]% w
apartments are doing well in major cities with high immigration flows. Primary
" t. D8 j5 Q+ @% {* S! q& Kwestern cities - Vancouver, Calgary, and Edmonton - are veering toward housing8 U" i5 P7 X( v; t
shortages as workers, attracted by a plethora of well-paying jobs, pour into/ c* N: ~- b% a/ R- q& B! M
the energy zone. Apartment occupancies are soaring in these areas. Development/ h7 c* P" X d0 w% g* D0 c/ I
in other regions remains difficult because of costs and land scarcity.9 B9 m# ^3 N9 ]
( s* \4 X/ X1 A' V' w0 s9 f2 P
Canadian Markets to Watch
9 O9 d( K7 I2 S: s4 o" { {& b" F/ f5 a
The report comments on how Canadians like to live and work in central
! S# s4 r2 |6 acities, as long as they can afford it. If housing is too pricey in 24-hour
' X3 v: ?3 Q5 @neighbourhoods, people move to inner-ring suburbs or beyond and commute back% \" X4 P3 T- V2 |" f. L( S
into the cores. Investors, especially the institutions, are concentrated in7 `0 {! p, y0 I: f8 x& e0 x" m8 I
downtown areas too. Planners and developers focus on infill and more vertical
( h& Z: F: R8 ?. Iprojects, which reinforce the urban cores. The hot-growth energy cities out. z* s- q" o" Z: b( K
west - Calgary and Edmonton - score the highest ratings for investment( |- c, M4 g7 Z7 Q% B B9 m) f( {
prospects, development, and for-sale housing, although it is not certain; b6 P& q) R& l4 S N
whether the recent announcements on royalties will have any effect on this.0 T l' V. W4 x- ^
Toronto, Canada's premier global pathway city, and Vancouver also have high) e( i% L" i0 G0 p5 A1 W: X8 U4 r
ratings. Ottawa and Montreal follow, with Halifax lagging./ ?: V e# G, p& f
; H! J) \6 b& O3 t Calgary/Edmonton5 w; d) Z9 K: {0 t+ p
5 W8 j- E, F! ]6 R, B3 ^% F; E. L
Calgary is the Canada's "resource" capital and North America's number-one
' X0 d% A9 o! i% T i( I# |boomtown. Survey respondents foresee strong buys for all sectors: 53.5% give a9 s8 s% ]: }4 y
buy recommendation for Hotel Property, 52.8% for Industrial/Distribution,
6 [; [; K) l. D0 }: `+ R: a+ [. `2 Q48.1% for Retail and Apartment Residential and 44.6% for Office Property.
9 R1 a* n( D( w- a7 CFurthermore, on average the majority of respondents see Calgary For-Sale
) a6 w- j2 G/ R: V0 d8 @3 P ]Homebuilding prospects as very good. Edmonton is closely mimicking the
8 B! {, X; S$ C7 g( l, ^Calgary-style growth wave and as long as demand for energy resources stays
. f# ^, M; O. v/ H6 h) ystrong, this market will continue to do well.
! d8 ?% z1 r; T5 T3 _: c# T& F- J& \
Vancouver
6 r6 a+ I% q# P$ q! d0 M+ r% ?5 |7 {9 d
Vancouver's diversified economy is roaring, the mining industry is
+ _: E6 H; E4 p+ A: mbooming and the city provides a large port and a high-tech center. Outrageous
5 r& _+ X+ R2 ?8 C" J/ Qreal estate prices frustrate homebuyers and commercial investors and the9 I' m3 c% ?8 K. `8 h0 F, r7 v
market is extremely hard to crack. The 2010 Winter Olympic Games is also a5 Z) `1 q5 L4 v
growth driver and accordingly 44.7% of respondents give Vancouver a buy! \& F$ {$ I: Y+ l/ y$ S) @
recommendation for Hotel Property. A further 43.5% give a buy Retail, 41.3%) A g3 Z) Y+ D# Q* F& n. m6 `
for Industrial/Distribution and 36.7% for Office Property followed by 34.1%
" q4 n) c# e( gfor Apartment Residential property. Vancouver also ranks in the good to very
* r# K% p. B* v3 D( F" J1 U" ]; egood mark for for-sale homebuilding prospects.
; d l( a$ Z8 k% M+ g& ~- J" \' v8 Y& U0 i
Toronto
J Q( l$ i" J. s) U& x
- }- `& X- a) A5 C8 [$ W Toronto ranks as a major global pathway destination, 24-hour city, and+ `. |! Y# A7 K& U( V5 }
manufacturing hub. Compared with other national financial centers, the city is' v9 ] s, q7 p9 U# k
relatively inexpensive. However, the rising loonie is hurting manufacturing
" R! p) n1 R$ u# I: r" w# Iindustries, and clouds over the US economy threaten to stall out momentum.# F1 S! ^* s g
Three new office towers are under construction, adding 3 million new square1 z9 @7 B- A& Q( }# [$ C; k
feet of office space. Notably, Office (49.1%), Industrial (46.2%) and$ _+ p' O- e4 g C" P- e7 h& ]' S
Apartments (40.8%) are given solid buys.4 K2 a, P1 `: N. C: O7 y: ]* N
, n, Z/ }4 h; p& k5 S" d Montreal5 W! a2 Q& [& @! O$ V! @% ]& M
# x3 J' Z2 P! |
Montreal continues to face concerns about market stability and overall
; o2 o4 E0 _2 I. P7 p' o7 f8 Ggrowth prospects as major companies no longer choose it as a place to set up: P' H; W3 _, W% i
shop. But, plenty of government offices fill space. Of the larger cities in
! Z m& v5 j) Q( A0 C; P8 lCanada, Montreal ranks lowest as a "buy" recommendation in all real estate
. k. a. ~& I9 H; K+ W7 osectors. However, respondents generally rated all Montreal real estate sectors
4 M3 D& y; k7 Uhigher as a "hold" recommendation.
- h0 |! O$ W. S6 H8 @! P# p- y4 ~# G$ o9 l* H, G, X3 U5 t
The report notes that best bets for investors for the coming years/ q$ t, L: r; F2 H: j
include a focus on all property sectors in the high-growth western energy* H( @9 F: p6 |5 E. `5 q# f5 M
markets, hold on central business district office space, develop infill condos7 l$ r: o" n( \1 G6 N
near subways stops in Toronto, buy infill sites wherever you can and invest( d4 H( V/ A8 f t2 b, m0 d
overseas. Potter concludes, "Domestic opportunities are too limited at current
6 _# U3 v8 r7 P7 `prices."- Q# l% t) [0 Y9 P
A copy of Emerging Trends in Real Estate(R) 2008 is available at) f8 H; u8 }6 G7 \
www.uli.org or www.pwc.com/imre.
4 T. v' C( s3 d) R ~
1 k/ h9 E# A- w About PricewaterhouseCoopers$ X* l( A6 C9 t* X$ V7 P. }
- m; O- @6 K& U, R# e: R
PricewaterhouseCoopers (www.pwc.com) provides industry-focused assurance,
8 q! d7 m! t) _, [# K& utax and advisory services to build public trust and enhance value for its2 Z ~5 v2 j }5 T
clients and their stakeholders. More than 140,000 people in 149 countries
8 u' A+ N9 H2 E0 Eacross our network share their thinking, experience and solutions to develop4 f3 @: x2 y/ O* r% O0 U2 }
fresh perspectives and practical advice. Now celebrating 100 years of* w: n1 Q, i* I* p% n' ]
excellence in Canada, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP (www.pwc.com/ca) and its
: P4 A2 @5 ]% wrelated entities have more than 5,200 partners and staff in offices across the
! E5 S& t, q$ ?" qcountry.
0 D' x: I7 ?5 X: X* R7 D5 h "PricewaterhouseCoopers" refers to PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, an Ontario4 J* M8 P% P4 Y+ d/ b# k" M5 S
limited liability partnership, or, as the context requires, the
2 N4 c! H V @" @2 y6 b( g2 JPricewaterhouseCoopers global network or other member firms of the network,: ]: K7 ?! t5 l1 ` s0 l
each of which is a separate and independent legal entity.
9 e" l! X! j+ G7 w U
. Z v q9 o% a" ^" f About the Urban Land Institute
1 e" \$ `6 L. e' t5 i v0 ^" o: ~ O( P5 R* \, |! k8 a6 s
The Urban Land Institute (www.uli.org) is a nonprofit education and, g% i7 G9 m! W4 m( R# J; |6 M
research institute supported by its members. Its mission is to provide; w; E+ U3 x) [2 x; k5 A
leadership in the responsible use of land and in sustaining and creating( O( D* S4 Z6 W* [7 Y3 g: I% r
thriving communities worldwide. Established in 1936, the Institute has more
* D0 c6 G! O, Jthan 38,000 members representing all aspects of land use and development3 f5 l4 i/ ~. u4 q6 B! ~1 z2 j
disciplines.
1 S7 \+ ~! ~0 F' ^" G The Urban Land Institute is an active and growing organization in Canada.
% E4 `7 ~3 j$ {7 t; V4 p0 q: rWith nearly 700 members across the country, Canada's first ULI District; b: U6 t6 \8 l$ Q9 w5 m
Council was established in Toronto in 2005 and a second District Council is; N) G0 A n+ A5 E9 I; s" k. N
now being formed in British Columbia. The Toronto District Council will be$ {. K/ ~! `( i5 ~. i6 E, D
hosting a special event on Emerging Trends in Real Estate on November 20th,& }2 `% ^4 v/ j& j, {- n
2007, featuring Jonathan Miller, the principal author of the report, Blake
, N% E' S. A* k9 KHutcheson, President of CB Richard Ellis Canada Ltd., and George Carras,
1 h8 G; |' L4 c% m4 lPresident of RealNet Canada Inc. For more information on this event, please
7 X/ \- k) `: R3 ccall the Toronto District Council Coordinator at (647) 258-0017, or look on
) u* D# @0 B( D) G* t& d1 Dthe web at www.uli.org/events/index.cfm?id=3066.
% \- G2 C' O3 A4 w; n1 P5 j) ^9 K9 R7 N5 J1 ]# ^
0 A- ]* `5 Z) p6 `" A% e/ n7 J: Z. R; R6 K5 h3 } p4 w; }: x
For further information: Carolyn Forest, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP,1 M- L1 z( q: P% m0 d8 z$ T% J
(416) 814-5730, carolyn.forest@ca.pwc.com
% r- X% y6 z, j- R( ~. o* \# Rhttp://www.newswire.ca/en/releas ... r2007/05/c4080.html1 |! B* D! |: c6 a" u4 I
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