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Attention Real Estate Reporters:
1 O, O# ]3 k( ~0 Y% t- R. F9 x: S% _
Despite US housing woes Canadian real estate remains upbeat 5 z* H7 S- L) D
TORONTO, Nov. 5 /CNW/ - Leading real estate experts are predicting the US
- P* B5 S/ ^% ?( j" n) \. Dcommercial real estate market will slow in 2008 and follow a similar pattern/ @: L4 l: @. b5 b2 O5 `! Y: S; ]
as the current residential market. However, according to the annual Emerging) g W( S8 s& v, {% l! z
Trends in Real Estate 2008 report, released by PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC)
( q; _, J) d0 A- l. ~and the Urban Land Institute (ULI), their Canadian counterparts are much more! H w8 v# _* [% j5 S
upbeat.+ O! W- a: b2 m/ V: i+ `- ^2 o4 J
Now in its 29th year, Emerging Trends is the oldest, most highly regarded, O: D5 S7 p) y7 B- |" b. z
annual industry outlook for the real estate industry. The report reflects
4 B1 Y% r5 w0 L! }interviews with and surveys of more than 600 of the industry's leading real9 }# c" G. ^! E3 F/ A' S
estate experts, including investors, developers, property company
' @! u8 w; }+ V7 v; T0 erepresentatives, lenders, brokers and consultants in both Canada and the US.& p7 F# o j3 S9 C3 l
Other versions of this report are conducted in countries around the world
2 G, _ y; C; p! x! o+ Mincluding Asia Pacific and Europe.2 l: G( M) h/ X5 o
According to Chris Potter, PwC partner and leader of the firm's Canadian1 u. a2 u1 F) b( S# a" U
Real Estate Tax practice, Canada benefits from a more conservative investment. y/ ]) M" s# ^$ N- Y8 R* A& Y9 {
environment than the US. "In Canada, institution-dominated markets appear to' d. R8 @: M" f
be avoiding 'transaction mania', but real estate values have reached record m% l/ }' o+ i8 I7 H1 R M. D
highs and a strong economy has accelerated tenant demand for space."# H2 P5 f! F5 Q5 u
According to American respondents, a healthy correction south of the& [ Y% Y8 ]. ?0 g9 O1 x) K2 _) ]
border will likely bypass long-term investors but penalize late-to-the-game
N$ r8 u+ C" Vspeculators and overleveraged buyers. Canadian respondents to the survey6 L3 `% [8 \6 C- H* y( b- A. E
remain positive about sidestepping any serious impacts of this possible US
/ w5 q \7 Z& X I% }correction. Close to 36% view their prospects for profitability in 2008 to be
& E2 m( E+ M& X/ cvery good and a further 22.4% say they're excellent./ M1 Z7 L9 `" E5 ^' p# }
The strongest areas of real estate business activity for Canadian
; z0 X; _* R8 N2 y( b$ ~respondents is predicted to be within real estate services, followed by: B$ u8 O5 Z# }/ x
commercial/multifamily development and homebuilding/residential land
5 P K! W4 N3 E& u* o# `development. All property sectors share positive prospects across the country! y% z8 z8 v+ [
especially industrial and retail with respondents, on average, stating
7 a, W2 I6 `' |4 _# w2 b8 @development prospects are expected to be modestly good to good. The
( R4 Y7 u! ?) {residential for-sale market is also expected to fair well, but might need to9 a8 @5 o- q- }+ ~# I, u
take a breather as homebuilders cannot keep up with the current pace and
% J& L3 A5 i. y g- a: t- }, H% b! wsingle-family housing looks overpriced.* C1 `; F& q0 L
Office stock is seeing limited inventories and dated product fill up with( [& s3 g3 x# Y5 ?
tenants. Except for Montreal, where office vacancies are nearing 9%. Canadian" S# a z! J# [- C$ E
metropolitan areas boast below 5% vacancies, and rents have room to push
4 v! `$ m# e* I; Y* a8 p$ t: {1 |higher. The survey is also showing that costs and land scarcity is limiting
$ I$ J% F3 L; I o+ S8 t, Mnew development. Hotel investment and development prospects are modestly good,
& }) G! C9 o( E8 Z& qand most respondents rate this sector either a buy or a hold. Rental
! }9 I E3 s) Z/ y) E8 N" Xapartments are doing well in major cities with high immigration flows. Primary& @0 _" B G8 c9 n
western cities - Vancouver, Calgary, and Edmonton - are veering toward housing
8 [1 b! I' w: k- S: Q: b/ ?1 _0 rshortages as workers, attracted by a plethora of well-paying jobs, pour into
# D0 J7 {: K/ N1 g9 fthe energy zone. Apartment occupancies are soaring in these areas. Development
6 V( a$ d- g$ u/ N" I6 C' iin other regions remains difficult because of costs and land scarcity.
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# P0 @; e* {- h$ I! n5 E7 N Canadian Markets to Watch
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: a! g9 n$ R7 h8 `: p The report comments on how Canadians like to live and work in central
: O% K9 t6 ]& W! m5 M+ e2 i! Ncities, as long as they can afford it. If housing is too pricey in 24-hour
/ V& C" J3 v" |- Z3 Lneighbourhoods, people move to inner-ring suburbs or beyond and commute back
# @ `& z# f- [6 ainto the cores. Investors, especially the institutions, are concentrated in
) v- ~8 H* R, X# Udowntown areas too. Planners and developers focus on infill and more vertical: @- H, T& k# ^: y9 U
projects, which reinforce the urban cores. The hot-growth energy cities out
9 O; z* r4 J5 c, H4 i- u& Ewest - Calgary and Edmonton - score the highest ratings for investment
0 R: b/ b7 _- @0 X" {1 Xprospects, development, and for-sale housing, although it is not certain I" k9 i( j1 r' {6 \" q
whether the recent announcements on royalties will have any effect on this.
% a' k$ |4 d0 U' g" C' e# ]3 [Toronto, Canada's premier global pathway city, and Vancouver also have high3 y7 o/ `: B+ H5 L T, ~% m9 J9 }
ratings. Ottawa and Montreal follow, with Halifax lagging.
3 U1 [% ]4 S0 R) m+ C
5 u: f8 u C+ X. T Calgary/Edmonton
9 G0 q1 R4 _1 A- o
1 D0 c2 }5 M* S, |+ L Calgary is the Canada's "resource" capital and North America's number-one
! f5 Z/ K8 X8 X6 \boomtown. Survey respondents foresee strong buys for all sectors: 53.5% give a
6 ?3 S5 Y Y$ @8 R' ^6 Ubuy recommendation for Hotel Property, 52.8% for Industrial/Distribution,
7 w2 m. u' M4 C* y2 W4 {48.1% for Retail and Apartment Residential and 44.6% for Office Property.. z* D' I& a, k$ r. U, C
Furthermore, on average the majority of respondents see Calgary For-Sale- j' W1 V, }, U0 e! l" l: D
Homebuilding prospects as very good. Edmonton is closely mimicking the
, i. u; i) ?& r3 V; TCalgary-style growth wave and as long as demand for energy resources stays
* E; A7 n# b. B I; i( y0 rstrong, this market will continue to do well.
) n' W" s. @) f3 _$ C# Y7 Z7 v& R9 T- a, f9 I
Vancouver
* P6 F" J) g' o# o
, ~% V: t' ^' Y! w Vancouver's diversified economy is roaring, the mining industry is0 R w8 ~; q$ t( m: ^0 t1 L
booming and the city provides a large port and a high-tech center. Outrageous
: ^" @& @: L0 {2 M' K# ereal estate prices frustrate homebuyers and commercial investors and the
q" ~% E& ^# o0 F* Zmarket is extremely hard to crack. The 2010 Winter Olympic Games is also a: n% B1 O0 E" z: |: V
growth driver and accordingly 44.7% of respondents give Vancouver a buy
$ v Q" x2 }5 k) M4 P/ J" Urecommendation for Hotel Property. A further 43.5% give a buy Retail, 41.3%* A9 n% J4 g- z
for Industrial/Distribution and 36.7% for Office Property followed by 34.1%5 y, q; l9 `+ U0 n X |2 W
for Apartment Residential property. Vancouver also ranks in the good to very8 H" A& J/ v' h* g8 d! `/ k
good mark for for-sale homebuilding prospects.
7 n! a/ o" m( [
# b0 G W3 K! w g! _ I! p( J0 ] Toronto C" @: @2 e: F' u
, J7 V) U% X0 l2 w Toronto ranks as a major global pathway destination, 24-hour city, and
3 P W: O. d: p8 Cmanufacturing hub. Compared with other national financial centers, the city is
6 a7 L$ ~; ?3 O) jrelatively inexpensive. However, the rising loonie is hurting manufacturing
3 g3 X% s* t, p; N. Windustries, and clouds over the US economy threaten to stall out momentum.# c% I* b$ ^$ u, Q4 t0 V
Three new office towers are under construction, adding 3 million new square4 I2 R6 G8 d- V+ _6 u0 h
feet of office space. Notably, Office (49.1%), Industrial (46.2%) and. N& n' {% _) _. n1 I
Apartments (40.8%) are given solid buys.
* ]3 G6 g, F5 F& g8 O/ h
( w/ K {% I; M/ S1 l* Q8 b2 I: m Montreal
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Montreal continues to face concerns about market stability and overall
" t# J @! @% A2 `growth prospects as major companies no longer choose it as a place to set up
3 y! r% J% P6 r% yshop. But, plenty of government offices fill space. Of the larger cities in: d9 z+ z: }4 P0 h( j7 f
Canada, Montreal ranks lowest as a "buy" recommendation in all real estate
0 a* I$ W" g, {' w- O; hsectors. However, respondents generally rated all Montreal real estate sectors
' `( d# f6 }- ]& `3 I& ahigher as a "hold" recommendation.
% d" A1 ?3 t# H3 `9 K
. |6 Y: w: z8 }5 G The report notes that best bets for investors for the coming years
0 @# L2 p8 z: K* linclude a focus on all property sectors in the high-growth western energy4 r0 D- V& Z, B$ G; O6 r$ `
markets, hold on central business district office space, develop infill condos
- Q1 F* O5 Z) p4 Hnear subways stops in Toronto, buy infill sites wherever you can and invest
2 V$ N1 [7 ^2 A' b* s0 ]overseas. Potter concludes, "Domestic opportunities are too limited at current* F% y( ^6 I# s7 s8 h
prices."9 `$ |9 D+ ?9 r7 ~
A copy of Emerging Trends in Real Estate(R) 2008 is available at* j, K3 q; P u
www.uli.org or www.pwc.com/imre.4 A. [; b3 B4 k1 F8 r' d
* c& r/ \3 U8 v3 B# K About PricewaterhouseCoopers6 t: v3 @7 O" R0 }$ O
4 q' Q6 H! H6 D9 c" |
PricewaterhouseCoopers (www.pwc.com) provides industry-focused assurance,0 Q" f7 d$ b' f' i" P
tax and advisory services to build public trust and enhance value for its* m. X" R1 f, z% ?
clients and their stakeholders. More than 140,000 people in 149 countries
3 Z; S: f5 {7 I7 \! Lacross our network share their thinking, experience and solutions to develop
6 A( q% e; r; I* Ffresh perspectives and practical advice. Now celebrating 100 years of
1 {7 A( r, j& X/ ?excellence in Canada, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP (www.pwc.com/ca) and its
@8 L0 Z5 _6 p. {8 irelated entities have more than 5,200 partners and staff in offices across the" m3 t7 U6 W! M$ g5 Q# {# v" h
country.* e' L' D/ f" w2 C! s/ K3 U( w1 |
"PricewaterhouseCoopers" refers to PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, an Ontario
* W, t% M) f( |. p* Z% A3 Plimited liability partnership, or, as the context requires, the! ?9 P6 [6 u; ?' X0 E$ a; O$ J. s7 A
PricewaterhouseCoopers global network or other member firms of the network,/ L- G0 F& y. D" F8 K# U( b
each of which is a separate and independent legal entity.
& Y0 s5 x) }0 |0 G+ s7 t N+ a) a/ U" W; g* J
About the Urban Land Institute
/ Q3 c1 Y7 z) F# O# V7 D9 i! O$ t: M
The Urban Land Institute (www.uli.org) is a nonprofit education and4 t' y0 x! b" d7 h" Y6 ]
research institute supported by its members. Its mission is to provide
5 L3 n2 k/ H7 E5 f3 ileadership in the responsible use of land and in sustaining and creating
2 M7 g K U% A( r( g% hthriving communities worldwide. Established in 1936, the Institute has more: ?* f5 k- |2 q# K! w' {
than 38,000 members representing all aspects of land use and development
6 i( A5 w$ e9 O0 mdisciplines.
) Z8 ?- B- B' Z& R The Urban Land Institute is an active and growing organization in Canada.
1 K; n1 Z4 \& P$ P0 }$ a" JWith nearly 700 members across the country, Canada's first ULI District
o3 ?7 w+ ?" k1 n& yCouncil was established in Toronto in 2005 and a second District Council is
7 s' g2 [. j e/ Tnow being formed in British Columbia. The Toronto District Council will be
- w. `' r# r! H( t. R1 Xhosting a special event on Emerging Trends in Real Estate on November 20th,# j. E* L2 a% {' |" O1 z
2007, featuring Jonathan Miller, the principal author of the report, Blake6 s% A- ~6 j% k3 P
Hutcheson, President of CB Richard Ellis Canada Ltd., and George Carras,# a" \) A t2 ~9 T
President of RealNet Canada Inc. For more information on this event, please6 ` V6 P# }( @! t6 k' j8 P
call the Toronto District Council Coordinator at (647) 258-0017, or look on
- R- z9 P$ S, L1 ~the web at www.uli.org/events/index.cfm?id=3066.
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& P) S) b' ^# |; L
" k, e( [: i' H4 ^ t0 m E
8 D/ K( ]- O0 T+ p# r) [For further information: Carolyn Forest, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP,
' s5 N- M$ h/ O6 @(416) 814-5730, carolyn.forest@ca.pwc.com
+ ?0 I' N! L3 i8 B# V' Jhttp://www.newswire.ca/en/releas ... r2007/05/c4080.html
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