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Attention Real Estate Reporters:
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, D5 H+ Q% t5 Q$ ODespite US housing woes Canadian real estate remains upbeat
- C5 e' W2 p) [2 o6 i, p7 ? TORONTO, Nov. 5 /CNW/ - Leading real estate experts are predicting the US
1 Z( B; q$ k9 ncommercial real estate market will slow in 2008 and follow a similar pattern. M, h7 p. s3 t
as the current residential market. However, according to the annual Emerging
. p5 B+ B o' V- LTrends in Real Estate 2008 report, released by PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC)( P4 C9 [! |8 x% r
and the Urban Land Institute (ULI), their Canadian counterparts are much more
3 ?- g8 {. {- tupbeat." q T) ~6 x$ C- e& ^# X) x
Now in its 29th year, Emerging Trends is the oldest, most highly regarded
9 ]/ r; c: M0 M/ X7 A" Gannual industry outlook for the real estate industry. The report reflects
+ o1 @* C' Y% e6 j$ Ginterviews with and surveys of more than 600 of the industry's leading real9 n, l4 M) {2 @- O7 H- @7 Z# c- s
estate experts, including investors, developers, property company
5 M6 }1 u, o/ M3 W6 J! y. frepresentatives, lenders, brokers and consultants in both Canada and the US.
: L6 t' O. d+ ~1 O7 x0 F7 `0 ^Other versions of this report are conducted in countries around the world- `' I. D# W) x" F/ l2 w& e
including Asia Pacific and Europe.* h' j' ~3 U2 f. M6 j, U$ a. y
According to Chris Potter, PwC partner and leader of the firm's Canadian$ b* v; e8 M9 V, O
Real Estate Tax practice, Canada benefits from a more conservative investment- b# F, N$ W8 |' F+ H' m9 R
environment than the US. "In Canada, institution-dominated markets appear to2 y, g6 L+ B* k- O
be avoiding 'transaction mania', but real estate values have reached record# v+ I% G* r1 H9 T
highs and a strong economy has accelerated tenant demand for space.". n7 ^$ [6 s# E; \
According to American respondents, a healthy correction south of the+ q0 g1 C! e( Y7 V$ {2 b8 v
border will likely bypass long-term investors but penalize late-to-the-game
8 _8 S. o$ a$ b) G L* s4 f Aspeculators and overleveraged buyers. Canadian respondents to the survey# x$ C& u- Y' g, }$ w
remain positive about sidestepping any serious impacts of this possible US
6 }* K1 N( w& {8 T/ h2 p Fcorrection. Close to 36% view their prospects for profitability in 2008 to be2 S. i' N' S* S8 }% J" W
very good and a further 22.4% say they're excellent.) p% g, p+ t, x6 C( n- l# F
The strongest areas of real estate business activity for Canadian
& l6 E3 }3 v* a2 r4 L0 Q6 ~respondents is predicted to be within real estate services, followed by6 D( o1 Y% p+ y$ _* |
commercial/multifamily development and homebuilding/residential land3 B7 X) D" W5 g8 m
development. All property sectors share positive prospects across the country' F. _4 P# `9 @
especially industrial and retail with respondents, on average, stating8 f0 x& o. T0 z! u2 n) B/ J
development prospects are expected to be modestly good to good. The
3 `% p, Y+ u, ?4 U: ]( S5 e( Eresidential for-sale market is also expected to fair well, but might need to) o& C' w1 _; P f. ^" B% M
take a breather as homebuilders cannot keep up with the current pace and
* | l6 a3 `4 U9 Ksingle-family housing looks overpriced.
' d4 N0 z% l' ?% [ a Office stock is seeing limited inventories and dated product fill up with
( o! c+ T/ U, k/ m. L: c- J) mtenants. Except for Montreal, where office vacancies are nearing 9%. Canadian
' |; Q% M! e! u% jmetropolitan areas boast below 5% vacancies, and rents have room to push
- O: l3 }, U E1 F; whigher. The survey is also showing that costs and land scarcity is limiting2 M3 s& n$ b) m* k$ ? a
new development. Hotel investment and development prospects are modestly good,2 f+ E+ {" u4 ~* J9 n7 u! D3 b8 u" j8 u
and most respondents rate this sector either a buy or a hold. Rental
, F) j/ K I' H& V) k- papartments are doing well in major cities with high immigration flows. Primary+ {0 B8 m2 q, g$ }+ Z
western cities - Vancouver, Calgary, and Edmonton - are veering toward housing
" C) B8 V! m0 B, c- H! Gshortages as workers, attracted by a plethora of well-paying jobs, pour into) z9 e( ~2 S2 t" b, R% M- i; s/ c) k
the energy zone. Apartment occupancies are soaring in these areas. Development
2 f9 h) E# p+ v/ S6 c' O( Z0 ]in other regions remains difficult because of costs and land scarcity.
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. H9 W. n- c+ e- ]; }7 J Canadian Markets to Watch
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8 V7 I* G3 Y' K' m& B The report comments on how Canadians like to live and work in central5 ^9 [6 d1 P9 {% V$ n
cities, as long as they can afford it. If housing is too pricey in 24-hour
! [* K- L/ W+ k) Z) g- y+ Ineighbourhoods, people move to inner-ring suburbs or beyond and commute back) }9 D, Y2 N6 x& ?! p& a
into the cores. Investors, especially the institutions, are concentrated in% s# h* |$ a0 I; N
downtown areas too. Planners and developers focus on infill and more vertical
, O0 h$ z& X7 ^# q& T9 @4 J; Rprojects, which reinforce the urban cores. The hot-growth energy cities out
5 v6 m# ]1 h- A! M8 Gwest - Calgary and Edmonton - score the highest ratings for investment" b" Z- f+ c1 e
prospects, development, and for-sale housing, although it is not certain+ [) C3 s. d" b9 q' H
whether the recent announcements on royalties will have any effect on this.
8 E" K0 j2 C* s1 {& F% J/ |9 j2 kToronto, Canada's premier global pathway city, and Vancouver also have high
% q2 M! L7 f. e5 fratings. Ottawa and Montreal follow, with Halifax lagging./ y4 C2 S0 t/ a4 y. K f( B+ B
& u, O2 u3 P2 D; I7 l' h Calgary/Edmonton; Z/ ^- M, D/ X6 ]
2 k: y7 J! B8 [8 o* u2 q0 U Calgary is the Canada's "resource" capital and North America's number-one. b, S1 ~6 i" N
boomtown. Survey respondents foresee strong buys for all sectors: 53.5% give a
( x3 o: |6 Q Y6 [5 ]- Pbuy recommendation for Hotel Property, 52.8% for Industrial/Distribution,' F1 r9 B. C8 i& }& y: \0 k2 w
48.1% for Retail and Apartment Residential and 44.6% for Office Property.
{" D1 G/ h3 {, r8 c" f9 Z5 XFurthermore, on average the majority of respondents see Calgary For-Sale
$ z6 T1 w+ d" v z' `2 H4 U3 @Homebuilding prospects as very good. Edmonton is closely mimicking the0 w, \7 d8 S) [! d; T2 n1 S2 n# F# Q+ D
Calgary-style growth wave and as long as demand for energy resources stays
6 B: x# o2 K f8 Lstrong, this market will continue to do well.7 d, Q; K+ D) E$ l8 \: u
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Vancouver
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( Z, M ^; G P, Y1 f+ d% P5 @+ u Vancouver's diversified economy is roaring, the mining industry is0 u% J" A! q* J! B& `
booming and the city provides a large port and a high-tech center. Outrageous' q; u2 q3 |3 W9 I0 S* ^
real estate prices frustrate homebuyers and commercial investors and the2 g5 a6 j) F; [5 `3 F
market is extremely hard to crack. The 2010 Winter Olympic Games is also a2 u0 R) \+ ^4 J* }5 U8 B2 n
growth driver and accordingly 44.7% of respondents give Vancouver a buy- Q' f# J' W: e0 `
recommendation for Hotel Property. A further 43.5% give a buy Retail, 41.3%
* q$ L/ D* ]! Z% U, Bfor Industrial/Distribution and 36.7% for Office Property followed by 34.1%
( Y5 z$ J4 }+ `0 Z8 Mfor Apartment Residential property. Vancouver also ranks in the good to very" l/ t$ i( T7 R
good mark for for-sale homebuilding prospects.# M1 t( h X( y* z# J# D
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Toronto2 [5 T: {4 E4 ?9 L) H: _
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Toronto ranks as a major global pathway destination, 24-hour city, and8 ~% ~* O+ O2 J/ N( e& i* K
manufacturing hub. Compared with other national financial centers, the city is r' n0 d8 }) p+ A: h% M8 v8 i
relatively inexpensive. However, the rising loonie is hurting manufacturing
# o; g4 _, J0 Q, G" k5 Sindustries, and clouds over the US economy threaten to stall out momentum.( @2 ?: @+ ~9 {) w. `
Three new office towers are under construction, adding 3 million new square
. Y, e0 W" _+ o7 Zfeet of office space. Notably, Office (49.1%), Industrial (46.2%) and
" w/ d& Z! i8 Q B JApartments (40.8%) are given solid buys.' Q3 L, \& Y6 g% j2 X
- o9 i6 V; S: t Montreal0 p% b4 N7 T# q, t# T9 T
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Montreal continues to face concerns about market stability and overall
6 B- _! @! K* c5 ~growth prospects as major companies no longer choose it as a place to set up( M0 @! o9 B7 b$ W, W v. T
shop. But, plenty of government offices fill space. Of the larger cities in. }# H6 n' | U4 H! F4 [' m7 O( b. F# ]
Canada, Montreal ranks lowest as a "buy" recommendation in all real estate/ Y/ I2 f7 ?6 Q3 {3 a# G
sectors. However, respondents generally rated all Montreal real estate sectors; p7 z: e, [1 M. C/ x
higher as a "hold" recommendation.
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The report notes that best bets for investors for the coming years$ k7 b% J5 [2 k7 I' l# s
include a focus on all property sectors in the high-growth western energy
# u3 g& w$ `- V4 Bmarkets, hold on central business district office space, develop infill condos9 j$ x; M7 K) x7 _3 Z) x7 y6 H
near subways stops in Toronto, buy infill sites wherever you can and invest
n& B0 j' r [: \* [, n# @overseas. Potter concludes, "Domestic opportunities are too limited at current
/ Y8 Z# v. b' _% E" Pprices.", Q; Q# ~, W7 y/ |) ^9 K* {
A copy of Emerging Trends in Real Estate(R) 2008 is available at
+ c4 O* ~9 |. bwww.uli.org or www.pwc.com/imre.
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About PricewaterhouseCoopers% J c/ z' L% w2 k+ ?
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PricewaterhouseCoopers (www.pwc.com) provides industry-focused assurance,# g$ y0 @4 _1 {+ r# A/ h. X. R: n; O
tax and advisory services to build public trust and enhance value for its9 P8 {* G, Y1 Y7 I( ?; `
clients and their stakeholders. More than 140,000 people in 149 countries' {* t0 U+ A9 ~' S# ]7 T, l; T
across our network share their thinking, experience and solutions to develop
0 e( ]8 Y' A0 Q; U, q! @+ D0 ofresh perspectives and practical advice. Now celebrating 100 years of' r$ d5 Z3 L# v! j9 C; b
excellence in Canada, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP (www.pwc.com/ca) and its4 ~* {( L3 K! Q5 P9 b, E" E4 h5 T) c
related entities have more than 5,200 partners and staff in offices across the
1 {8 ~: b1 Q; b0 o+ l4 pcountry.
+ x' M: w1 X& o$ v "PricewaterhouseCoopers" refers to PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, an Ontario
& |1 \! d8 O ?5 s& S- E" |2 flimited liability partnership, or, as the context requires, the
) h9 o% D- H0 gPricewaterhouseCoopers global network or other member firms of the network,/ S3 F9 {" K/ D( B8 F5 }
each of which is a separate and independent legal entity.0 z ]; P3 L: z' l
$ B# G7 O, K7 @& m" }% G About the Urban Land Institute0 M7 ?2 N: E$ g$ W1 _9 v" N* e
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The Urban Land Institute (www.uli.org) is a nonprofit education and5 f' O1 S8 W* [5 G( z! N0 ^, _: F
research institute supported by its members. Its mission is to provide; S o5 z6 `- ]3 U; E. l8 y
leadership in the responsible use of land and in sustaining and creating
# }5 O* X( r P; @: [$ Nthriving communities worldwide. Established in 1936, the Institute has more
0 _8 v& @+ F$ q: i, Hthan 38,000 members representing all aspects of land use and development
9 a9 E7 T4 u# }; ]0 M* jdisciplines." C8 s- S5 E( B5 ^! `+ j+ F
The Urban Land Institute is an active and growing organization in Canada.
. ~* {9 o; D" G6 U7 I) j& PWith nearly 700 members across the country, Canada's first ULI District
. H8 [* T, Y- h. t* S) HCouncil was established in Toronto in 2005 and a second District Council is
, L5 r! E0 c/ h3 C, K4 pnow being formed in British Columbia. The Toronto District Council will be2 l: r0 T( q( y" M7 `( V* M: u% Z7 P
hosting a special event on Emerging Trends in Real Estate on November 20th,- V" ~* E4 l5 [) R( K& M! h! `
2007, featuring Jonathan Miller, the principal author of the report, Blake0 i5 W) S6 i4 E+ V) H) R3 l3 P2 H% e
Hutcheson, President of CB Richard Ellis Canada Ltd., and George Carras,
# K9 C. ^6 `% ~. ~ j; IPresident of RealNet Canada Inc. For more information on this event, please/ ~( V. G( ^* h( I% m: A' g
call the Toronto District Council Coordinator at (647) 258-0017, or look on- g2 v8 D1 D, B/ U- n! \6 \+ D
the web at www.uli.org/events/index.cfm?id=3066.
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_2 G: X! z* P% T& u, O# b
For further information: Carolyn Forest, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP,
1 j2 U8 L5 |8 b1 [4 T0 |4 v(416) 814-5730, carolyn.forest@ca.pwc.com
# ]6 N0 W. f1 `$ ^( T7 zhttp://www.newswire.ca/en/releas ... r2007/05/c4080.html2 ]1 C% V; }% y2 B& F" c# [7 n: \. \
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