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Attention Real Estate Reporters: ( i4 ?* n/ J2 E$ S$ [: b) R! F; X, {
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Despite US housing woes Canadian real estate remains upbeat 9 j9 q+ j/ W- a
TORONTO, Nov. 5 /CNW/ - Leading real estate experts are predicting the US
% }. E1 U$ H" ecommercial real estate market will slow in 2008 and follow a similar pattern
$ J. W! F) r6 N( sas the current residential market. However, according to the annual Emerging
5 G z5 b$ J( P8 ]! PTrends in Real Estate 2008 report, released by PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC)
9 u* v4 W/ Y# f8 \5 a/ E' ?6 Yand the Urban Land Institute (ULI), their Canadian counterparts are much more/ _# Z4 O4 e/ R' @3 U: |
upbeat.& J' Z6 L8 ~& V% W
Now in its 29th year, Emerging Trends is the oldest, most highly regarded
0 ^) C4 @7 \/ L6 e) |0 q. X1 wannual industry outlook for the real estate industry. The report reflects+ z3 x/ w0 T9 t# ?! r2 }
interviews with and surveys of more than 600 of the industry's leading real; c6 y! e# d8 A
estate experts, including investors, developers, property company6 ?9 x: X# _7 t7 {' c! }" M. c. E
representatives, lenders, brokers and consultants in both Canada and the US.& M/ }3 _3 y2 R: X8 \, f0 q
Other versions of this report are conducted in countries around the world
! U# ^0 u/ O0 yincluding Asia Pacific and Europe." a& m; ^: B5 Y4 S% |
According to Chris Potter, PwC partner and leader of the firm's Canadian* F" t% \% R6 N6 ]/ B4 a
Real Estate Tax practice, Canada benefits from a more conservative investment2 b9 q' |# @4 G9 \# Q
environment than the US. "In Canada, institution-dominated markets appear to% g& s; B- |4 O7 ?) u2 V1 }
be avoiding 'transaction mania', but real estate values have reached record
& D) e$ W; {( P4 s2 chighs and a strong economy has accelerated tenant demand for space."
( J; `1 }5 O/ U! ?2 S$ N) _ According to American respondents, a healthy correction south of the k7 a) W4 q2 [; p
border will likely bypass long-term investors but penalize late-to-the-game
v# H! u6 d9 L% nspeculators and overleveraged buyers. Canadian respondents to the survey
8 E1 y! U: B) o; b/ S% Eremain positive about sidestepping any serious impacts of this possible US
" @) v6 |' j$ Z) K, v' n! H2 h1 _correction. Close to 36% view their prospects for profitability in 2008 to be
8 G$ k% h' `0 I, v9 a7 yvery good and a further 22.4% say they're excellent.
5 x8 H* |+ {* M6 P7 o' H4 c0 b The strongest areas of real estate business activity for Canadian8 R6 K7 C7 u. C7 P& L6 K8 b h# @
respondents is predicted to be within real estate services, followed by% K4 H. u w+ @
commercial/multifamily development and homebuilding/residential land: F! F! f' ?5 ?$ G& [! Y, w
development. All property sectors share positive prospects across the country- c! ?/ C0 z g+ V
especially industrial and retail with respondents, on average, stating$ z) |8 P' E3 B* i" m8 d
development prospects are expected to be modestly good to good. The+ q* d4 Z$ e$ F$ A+ _: X
residential for-sale market is also expected to fair well, but might need to( K; t$ b# v o5 n% q5 B
take a breather as homebuilders cannot keep up with the current pace and; T. }- r7 r: I5 O2 q T
single-family housing looks overpriced.2 _# P3 U4 u* R1 A: z
Office stock is seeing limited inventories and dated product fill up with
! s' m! b7 U# f# K8 e5 Ktenants. Except for Montreal, where office vacancies are nearing 9%. Canadian# \/ t2 H: |4 x/ K/ j& h# i
metropolitan areas boast below 5% vacancies, and rents have room to push
, x( k1 ~$ {. ^& ^higher. The survey is also showing that costs and land scarcity is limiting
! h! \1 V3 G' U1 i- _) a# Ynew development. Hotel investment and development prospects are modestly good,
7 ^: Y2 N. S2 P: _0 W. Hand most respondents rate this sector either a buy or a hold. Rental
7 E" @" v8 W! K8 h1 vapartments are doing well in major cities with high immigration flows. Primary
) T/ e4 ~; b7 i: u, r+ F3 dwestern cities - Vancouver, Calgary, and Edmonton - are veering toward housing) t% J! Q8 ]% g' p
shortages as workers, attracted by a plethora of well-paying jobs, pour into+ ]+ R5 a$ ?' R O$ B) M
the energy zone. Apartment occupancies are soaring in these areas. Development) i5 K& N" m5 D- K* p8 I
in other regions remains difficult because of costs and land scarcity.
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" [8 F3 s* d# `- l/ y% p( ] Canadian Markets to Watch/ z/ A) k- _2 E
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The report comments on how Canadians like to live and work in central) N8 n3 T: l$ A- r0 m, Y4 b
cities, as long as they can afford it. If housing is too pricey in 24-hour8 T, y- a4 H5 l# n
neighbourhoods, people move to inner-ring suburbs or beyond and commute back' a& e# g5 ]7 @$ n! C+ ]
into the cores. Investors, especially the institutions, are concentrated in
4 W9 ~* y3 v; i7 V. cdowntown areas too. Planners and developers focus on infill and more vertical
$ F- N, x7 E: l* f9 qprojects, which reinforce the urban cores. The hot-growth energy cities out5 [ X6 T7 \$ H3 A2 s
west - Calgary and Edmonton - score the highest ratings for investment
) G% V0 }! }' p/ o9 [; mprospects, development, and for-sale housing, although it is not certain
1 }9 t- Z, e+ T. T* d7 \whether the recent announcements on royalties will have any effect on this.
& W1 G/ w) Q( o4 |2 y ]1 ^4 [Toronto, Canada's premier global pathway city, and Vancouver also have high4 d( N4 A% K2 b R0 l% X" r. r; n6 v' w
ratings. Ottawa and Montreal follow, with Halifax lagging.% g3 W& W! V# n. @
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Calgary/Edmonton
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, A+ u! Z8 ~+ V* g Calgary is the Canada's "resource" capital and North America's number-one' A; D& }2 Q. p0 T0 l
boomtown. Survey respondents foresee strong buys for all sectors: 53.5% give a
/ f7 p, c- y) z2 N6 e% zbuy recommendation for Hotel Property, 52.8% for Industrial/Distribution,! Q% w: b" ^$ `7 Z
48.1% for Retail and Apartment Residential and 44.6% for Office Property.
$ V1 y2 q j" u+ N- M5 KFurthermore, on average the majority of respondents see Calgary For-Sale
( J8 e8 M6 Z ?6 z1 h& THomebuilding prospects as very good. Edmonton is closely mimicking the! |- R a! ~+ }0 b- V& x# k$ Z9 }
Calgary-style growth wave and as long as demand for energy resources stays+ l- g% G+ L4 E# d" [( K
strong, this market will continue to do well./ U& B. i7 `& ]7 Q4 f1 T
0 c8 y4 H$ v" o- q; l4 y
Vancouver
, s+ c# v/ E" _6 J; T+ L/ l! G% ?) c0 r" ]3 @& j
Vancouver's diversified economy is roaring, the mining industry is
' Y1 q2 z u: o- w- M4 y9 B( gbooming and the city provides a large port and a high-tech center. Outrageous
8 |9 Q# i9 Y- p/ K' o0 breal estate prices frustrate homebuyers and commercial investors and the
3 v" G; D9 u& {) m/ x, p1 Y( \9 R1 Dmarket is extremely hard to crack. The 2010 Winter Olympic Games is also a
j$ Q) M2 X8 v) L/ ^& f% fgrowth driver and accordingly 44.7% of respondents give Vancouver a buy
9 {* d$ |' N; I3 O/ crecommendation for Hotel Property. A further 43.5% give a buy Retail, 41.3%
8 X8 E% }& T; f9 g; w @8 l5 W6 W2 Hfor Industrial/Distribution and 36.7% for Office Property followed by 34.1% H( @+ N, y E/ f- [' ]
for Apartment Residential property. Vancouver also ranks in the good to very' O3 {+ E8 w. |. ~6 S
good mark for for-sale homebuilding prospects.
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Toronto
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Toronto ranks as a major global pathway destination, 24-hour city, and
: m7 h7 J* ^% \. a% y* h! Zmanufacturing hub. Compared with other national financial centers, the city is
8 J9 d$ _' i/ P4 N/ o; ^relatively inexpensive. However, the rising loonie is hurting manufacturing7 x/ l5 U5 {, w) J
industries, and clouds over the US economy threaten to stall out momentum.
2 \, K5 Q& ]$ r/ y D( V8 k: c5 [Three new office towers are under construction, adding 3 million new square6 J0 f' w6 p9 F0 b) ^# \
feet of office space. Notably, Office (49.1%), Industrial (46.2%) and& m: X8 I8 |: n- z
Apartments (40.8%) are given solid buys.7 M/ h/ c, B4 L' Q8 D. l) h. l% E, O
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Montreal
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Montreal continues to face concerns about market stability and overall
( k F' O& D. ?. xgrowth prospects as major companies no longer choose it as a place to set up
2 |; a2 n; M$ `! f% I+ P3 ishop. But, plenty of government offices fill space. Of the larger cities in2 }; L- y! @: O0 q
Canada, Montreal ranks lowest as a "buy" recommendation in all real estate! {* [ E$ M- X# [$ L: C
sectors. However, respondents generally rated all Montreal real estate sectors& ?2 D! {' M0 f3 |* l e: Q) S
higher as a "hold" recommendation.. x; W8 N m$ l* B( c' E1 F* I! Y3 E
* j( g: e7 j0 {0 z+ c& t( Y0 | The report notes that best bets for investors for the coming years2 b, a9 _# j- @6 E' ^: D
include a focus on all property sectors in the high-growth western energy% H: e( p8 s3 g% h$ q
markets, hold on central business district office space, develop infill condos
, b7 K M1 k, t' ]near subways stops in Toronto, buy infill sites wherever you can and invest
( m3 J0 d2 A/ N1 v) a3 [overseas. Potter concludes, "Domestic opportunities are too limited at current! c# J! q' b! H
prices."
, A% K4 I! M, P A copy of Emerging Trends in Real Estate(R) 2008 is available at& V& @, L. B9 e! K
www.uli.org or www.pwc.com/imre.& o' @' E4 i9 F Y- ?4 M5 X+ ?
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About PricewaterhouseCoopers
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# L d/ m' m1 O& Q9 [# `( R PricewaterhouseCoopers (www.pwc.com) provides industry-focused assurance,) r( t& k6 n% v
tax and advisory services to build public trust and enhance value for its: K& V3 a2 Y0 R9 | N" S$ ]
clients and their stakeholders. More than 140,000 people in 149 countries
Z3 U: ]/ O; ~. E2 @0 lacross our network share their thinking, experience and solutions to develop# J0 y/ p3 z9 N( z4 ]3 i( C& g7 x8 e
fresh perspectives and practical advice. Now celebrating 100 years of
3 ~) Q" [7 y+ l, G" \6 ~$ _excellence in Canada, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP (www.pwc.com/ca) and its4 u0 M# l+ I: B, x% s
related entities have more than 5,200 partners and staff in offices across the' j4 b# Q, T/ u* t$ }1 N
country.
" M$ d( ?0 N- N2 T& s "PricewaterhouseCoopers" refers to PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, an Ontario" x) G- i {, X* y9 t/ x6 d; ?
limited liability partnership, or, as the context requires, the
) Z6 F! [0 t) |, M$ w) kPricewaterhouseCoopers global network or other member firms of the network,: P9 E7 {8 K+ t: J( g, j
each of which is a separate and independent legal entity.
, {' x$ z# p: y3 j# C! U
& o8 F: A! d5 `, k& ^ g About the Urban Land Institute
" ^' T8 l$ o) @. c3 J. }
2 O) m' Q' E7 }9 W b+ s2 A( K The Urban Land Institute (www.uli.org) is a nonprofit education and
; F; i+ h4 y' p2 T& m; Yresearch institute supported by its members. Its mission is to provide
; x5 \" L% ]. ^% J# Z w2 B1 Cleadership in the responsible use of land and in sustaining and creating
( C+ l- b1 j0 `; ]0 b* \thriving communities worldwide. Established in 1936, the Institute has more
6 F/ l: x% ]- V/ f& \& R6 \: mthan 38,000 members representing all aspects of land use and development8 z4 H( F) [- Y3 N( m. M
disciplines." j# _2 I. u# ]0 n- Y* J+ J
The Urban Land Institute is an active and growing organization in Canada./ Y" G; j+ [# M+ l* i9 Y2 i1 ^
With nearly 700 members across the country, Canada's first ULI District+ K2 |9 |# ~1 N# P, }3 ]1 r
Council was established in Toronto in 2005 and a second District Council is0 {3 B% w" e( r( D u( a
now being formed in British Columbia. The Toronto District Council will be
) ?6 V0 S( E: N9 G K3 @hosting a special event on Emerging Trends in Real Estate on November 20th,: N6 a1 d: W! c! A, O; q
2007, featuring Jonathan Miller, the principal author of the report, Blake
; M# p5 J: k9 |9 i8 s& CHutcheson, President of CB Richard Ellis Canada Ltd., and George Carras,. a! B/ Z; V* m1 l) L4 _
President of RealNet Canada Inc. For more information on this event, please
; w' d! x8 R5 U3 xcall the Toronto District Council Coordinator at (647) 258-0017, or look on3 r* Y2 @. w# m
the web at www.uli.org/events/index.cfm?id=3066.& ? S; e+ x* k
& T. T+ |6 p2 i2 U
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For further information: Carolyn Forest, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP,
6 ]- U5 Y* m( ~2 r* C3 Z(416) 814-5730, carolyn.forest@ca.pwc.com9 O; D, [ g+ E6 |0 x/ V0 m
http://www.newswire.ca/en/releas ... r2007/05/c4080.html2 D7 }1 I3 C, y2 m/ @& t
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