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Attention Real Estate Reporters: + ^+ Y# I/ L6 H4 Z: } S
6 p* E" N& I" a6 V, D! k" DDespite US housing woes Canadian real estate remains upbeat
: V* O" S+ ~ D) c7 Y% D# U TORONTO, Nov. 5 /CNW/ - Leading real estate experts are predicting the US
_& {4 P6 E0 q) Fcommercial real estate market will slow in 2008 and follow a similar pattern
5 f6 U" b. [- I" Q1 g; qas the current residential market. However, according to the annual Emerging
, F( n" R, w7 G B; C% n& q5 ITrends in Real Estate 2008 report, released by PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC)
1 z& @, w5 T1 [* A7 c& Z+ qand the Urban Land Institute (ULI), their Canadian counterparts are much more+ N3 Y$ }% G# n. U3 H
upbeat., D# r' V+ w7 p# w5 g) n
Now in its 29th year, Emerging Trends is the oldest, most highly regarded) ~ [1 j7 i# p1 B' ^$ D' {4 l
annual industry outlook for the real estate industry. The report reflects
1 H/ G* B" h7 p; N: Iinterviews with and surveys of more than 600 of the industry's leading real9 f" N* Z7 q2 U+ `
estate experts, including investors, developers, property company$ h. i: N- E7 M/ k% u- t, | g
representatives, lenders, brokers and consultants in both Canada and the US.
: L, B" {. S- H) q% I- R2 tOther versions of this report are conducted in countries around the world; V5 i3 k. M7 a
including Asia Pacific and Europe.
2 h+ M, _3 ^- f, O% E, g" I According to Chris Potter, PwC partner and leader of the firm's Canadian, T6 |2 i7 d6 u1 b% `+ z
Real Estate Tax practice, Canada benefits from a more conservative investment7 Y" @! n2 W- V) e; S$ \6 s
environment than the US. "In Canada, institution-dominated markets appear to
& n' l- {# L$ U+ d* k" p2 cbe avoiding 'transaction mania', but real estate values have reached record2 K+ p2 W( i1 X: o( s8 U8 q
highs and a strong economy has accelerated tenant demand for space."
" w$ c7 i( S& L( E6 G3 ] According to American respondents, a healthy correction south of the
% Y& Z* e& t' G' K' {border will likely bypass long-term investors but penalize late-to-the-game4 L4 Y2 X! z0 @3 N" `. I
speculators and overleveraged buyers. Canadian respondents to the survey$ V* r4 ~0 E- H/ z
remain positive about sidestepping any serious impacts of this possible US
; t1 k- E$ H; e+ X! V8 Ecorrection. Close to 36% view their prospects for profitability in 2008 to be
; E- r. p& v+ G/ o% _, Mvery good and a further 22.4% say they're excellent.
; ^7 i5 I1 O# \5 d8 y3 X! ?7 q The strongest areas of real estate business activity for Canadian0 n1 z7 y. r8 ~$ {! r7 S
respondents is predicted to be within real estate services, followed by* M8 ]+ U$ U; {7 r
commercial/multifamily development and homebuilding/residential land4 F7 c7 c8 j% F% f1 D. \
development. All property sectors share positive prospects across the country8 F) j. M5 G; s2 y" N+ s' Q" E
especially industrial and retail with respondents, on average, stating" P1 f: j6 g7 w4 @
development prospects are expected to be modestly good to good. The' E, S7 b, m. B' L( q
residential for-sale market is also expected to fair well, but might need to
! Y( a8 M4 B! |) r- Ntake a breather as homebuilders cannot keep up with the current pace and4 W. u: R5 {( n1 p
single-family housing looks overpriced.& f& g1 V) a: G Z$ r0 H V5 S) [) v
Office stock is seeing limited inventories and dated product fill up with; x4 i; q& u) a+ U: ]' {4 ~
tenants. Except for Montreal, where office vacancies are nearing 9%. Canadian
: ~4 D" e. Y6 c$ Jmetropolitan areas boast below 5% vacancies, and rents have room to push
* V" L/ N# J/ H/ t2 }higher. The survey is also showing that costs and land scarcity is limiting
1 z5 j1 K& U; r- I1 u1 ynew development. Hotel investment and development prospects are modestly good,: Y5 t8 s. L) } [* E
and most respondents rate this sector either a buy or a hold. Rental
% t; \- V2 `1 M8 u# z6 J/ x$ hapartments are doing well in major cities with high immigration flows. Primary# w' ~* d P1 L# a, Q, C! m; {. ^
western cities - Vancouver, Calgary, and Edmonton - are veering toward housing/ d" W8 p4 I- o l! d* _
shortages as workers, attracted by a plethora of well-paying jobs, pour into5 n* U% u3 |, f8 i- a8 X# c' V3 p
the energy zone. Apartment occupancies are soaring in these areas. Development
7 O; E3 S& Y' } Vin other regions remains difficult because of costs and land scarcity.
8 G3 O/ Z* }* m
1 c& x! \) n, p: U7 p, e# k Canadian Markets to Watch0 \( \0 I% V9 e4 w; u$ G" T& a$ S
) S% Q1 i, d, U* P: ] The report comments on how Canadians like to live and work in central
/ @' q# R* f( P$ Wcities, as long as they can afford it. If housing is too pricey in 24-hour: R1 u( |8 o% _4 R+ @, i% L
neighbourhoods, people move to inner-ring suburbs or beyond and commute back6 c: [/ K+ P& \. k! O
into the cores. Investors, especially the institutions, are concentrated in# A' w9 i* ~( m1 d
downtown areas too. Planners and developers focus on infill and more vertical8 m5 _1 h/ ]9 h6 W
projects, which reinforce the urban cores. The hot-growth energy cities out
+ e- {8 Q5 K5 ?6 d! Z; Bwest - Calgary and Edmonton - score the highest ratings for investment( {. _- u' E2 t0 M9 j/ |
prospects, development, and for-sale housing, although it is not certain$ |+ T4 ^- p6 M9 y6 Z# n& `
whether the recent announcements on royalties will have any effect on this., P% E |! c- @
Toronto, Canada's premier global pathway city, and Vancouver also have high, G: H% o7 r _4 Q3 }( o9 j$ O
ratings. Ottawa and Montreal follow, with Halifax lagging.
* J3 i7 j& b# B2 x
% Z3 @( j; h1 f7 \4 v1 F d. W& m Calgary/Edmonton
. \& ] D/ G3 b, J5 O
4 X% H' I; @; w: l2 w$ }- u Calgary is the Canada's "resource" capital and North America's number-one
; b t5 E# X eboomtown. Survey respondents foresee strong buys for all sectors: 53.5% give a
; D. E; h* y- Vbuy recommendation for Hotel Property, 52.8% for Industrial/Distribution,* u; Z$ Y$ f0 [( J, F7 a5 I% Q
48.1% for Retail and Apartment Residential and 44.6% for Office Property.
& ^5 e# k a* X8 I( Z r; tFurthermore, on average the majority of respondents see Calgary For-Sale3 J5 x6 x$ ~' N
Homebuilding prospects as very good. Edmonton is closely mimicking the* D. R. B+ G( K/ L7 z: \! [1 K
Calgary-style growth wave and as long as demand for energy resources stays* ~/ D* @( p9 b0 ~% B6 R
strong, this market will continue to do well.7 u/ W% l) g. P8 N0 K
; E- G: ^, C5 W) S! n6 f, m! L Vancouver9 v7 x3 i5 j d. E. g3 w
) ?/ o' R- G. S1 R
Vancouver's diversified economy is roaring, the mining industry is% ~9 V; ~3 `' g6 n
booming and the city provides a large port and a high-tech center. Outrageous* Q8 t% [- T' X' H; n
real estate prices frustrate homebuyers and commercial investors and the) ~ H1 @& K9 {
market is extremely hard to crack. The 2010 Winter Olympic Games is also a; w: d$ o* R* m
growth driver and accordingly 44.7% of respondents give Vancouver a buy
/ C+ z: u$ \+ O3 l& J% O3 q7 Z, srecommendation for Hotel Property. A further 43.5% give a buy Retail, 41.3%4 Z6 ^: y) {/ y+ w, l& X! x9 r
for Industrial/Distribution and 36.7% for Office Property followed by 34.1%# s/ L( ^' L- r" r j# \
for Apartment Residential property. Vancouver also ranks in the good to very [# \/ b- K) h4 R' K
good mark for for-sale homebuilding prospects.
" D' e# J# t" ?3 t7 }
! r/ M. s7 K J, A, [# L8 s Toronto- `' [. G+ `. {8 z5 b0 }
8 K, f- u* S4 P0 o# R4 D& Z
Toronto ranks as a major global pathway destination, 24-hour city, and+ Q |; a$ l' g5 e, ~/ n# G
manufacturing hub. Compared with other national financial centers, the city is, ]" R a5 T3 @ h
relatively inexpensive. However, the rising loonie is hurting manufacturing
" b- C% w- w; _8 qindustries, and clouds over the US economy threaten to stall out momentum.
4 N; Z0 I0 D9 C) R5 b h, P% L' TThree new office towers are under construction, adding 3 million new square5 p3 N# u3 E7 {4 w
feet of office space. Notably, Office (49.1%), Industrial (46.2%) and
1 F: p3 F1 l& e" \Apartments (40.8%) are given solid buys.7 |# {1 e. \, _+ j: j
) @9 G6 ^3 n) N- J, J& L6 a Montreal
& f H; T& s% ]5 _+ C
7 J* s: a7 j& a) G4 D Montreal continues to face concerns about market stability and overall
0 \% s* e% y2 f: |growth prospects as major companies no longer choose it as a place to set up1 X. ?+ u, C7 A% t4 O) m
shop. But, plenty of government offices fill space. Of the larger cities in
% ~. g5 A& f* R1 \6 g* B0 J/ nCanada, Montreal ranks lowest as a "buy" recommendation in all real estate
; t% N" g. p% Usectors. However, respondents generally rated all Montreal real estate sectors" l6 c0 E4 q1 i% d: t1 j
higher as a "hold" recommendation.
! u% F" w2 r, E
, S) g; F4 a9 b. c The report notes that best bets for investors for the coming years
7 y0 a3 |7 {! z2 L, ^include a focus on all property sectors in the high-growth western energy, x8 t, G5 X M6 u) X1 I/ G
markets, hold on central business district office space, develop infill condos5 p6 W4 O5 B8 B, A
near subways stops in Toronto, buy infill sites wherever you can and invest+ W5 L& U. Y; j3 `4 q& I
overseas. Potter concludes, "Domestic opportunities are too limited at current
5 {1 l* C( x! _; ^% j s# o; L* Q9 cprices."
- \: d7 g" u r0 w A copy of Emerging Trends in Real Estate(R) 2008 is available at# h) p& ]/ J5 ?5 {- y9 ^
www.uli.org or www.pwc.com/imre.
) I9 F- _! G3 w, @/ F3 p2 G5 Z
About PricewaterhouseCoopers
2 ] a$ T4 u" ~8 l* U8 m' O8 s% K1 v
PricewaterhouseCoopers (www.pwc.com) provides industry-focused assurance,
0 j$ A8 @% ?/ Qtax and advisory services to build public trust and enhance value for its
+ k8 o2 N: i1 Sclients and their stakeholders. More than 140,000 people in 149 countries. }% T6 X. R: R6 q" N# h- J/ L
across our network share their thinking, experience and solutions to develop
- l% h# ?0 Y& {' Dfresh perspectives and practical advice. Now celebrating 100 years of
0 K2 H6 K7 u7 `excellence in Canada, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP (www.pwc.com/ca) and its$ V Z& O$ N0 z2 N5 P3 ?
related entities have more than 5,200 partners and staff in offices across the
% e+ d5 h6 J3 s5 e/ }! Dcountry.
$ Z. m( L1 F' C "PricewaterhouseCoopers" refers to PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, an Ontario
4 }. t) f% b$ J6 vlimited liability partnership, or, as the context requires, the
1 y. K/ W4 h. e4 W5 ePricewaterhouseCoopers global network or other member firms of the network, j3 W7 b3 Z( I6 f
each of which is a separate and independent legal entity.) N6 Y$ C, I1 z
; l$ r, U* B: r" @ About the Urban Land Institute; M3 ~5 |) J' {$ k) }6 r
9 S1 d! i" c: B2 C2 E0 c
The Urban Land Institute (www.uli.org) is a nonprofit education and
* F z l) s& k8 Iresearch institute supported by its members. Its mission is to provide5 z3 E) N) ]! S- y& B$ |0 R2 i9 b
leadership in the responsible use of land and in sustaining and creating( ?8 X; _* \6 J4 ~( ?8 i
thriving communities worldwide. Established in 1936, the Institute has more
8 z9 x7 Y$ `* A! z! z. @than 38,000 members representing all aspects of land use and development4 E" w1 g/ L+ [( V; `
disciplines.
7 W3 T+ X: d0 q6 s! y: Y The Urban Land Institute is an active and growing organization in Canada.% _: ?& ]8 g M3 M, w- p# W
With nearly 700 members across the country, Canada's first ULI District
3 w6 A; p, v$ _9 eCouncil was established in Toronto in 2005 and a second District Council is
}$ P: Y3 g6 \4 Inow being formed in British Columbia. The Toronto District Council will be
5 q# Z) ]0 A0 M; E: E$ Yhosting a special event on Emerging Trends in Real Estate on November 20th,
, s) [# D" B; r% \' f! d0 @! X2007, featuring Jonathan Miller, the principal author of the report, Blake
$ S4 F4 U2 G* m8 T5 T1 E" M& H# JHutcheson, President of CB Richard Ellis Canada Ltd., and George Carras," }, T, P; Y0 @ }
President of RealNet Canada Inc. For more information on this event, please
& z9 E6 ` Q* L+ x9 ~8 L! jcall the Toronto District Council Coordinator at (647) 258-0017, or look on
0 i1 w* A4 F1 u p8 R2 r5 O% tthe web at www.uli.org/events/index.cfm?id=3066.
' g: l6 F, ^6 u2 q2 M* A+ `* ~4 `9 d" z
/ {- c( L$ F5 Y# B: q
: G! T$ b X$ ]+ l6 |2 a( {) G6 r8 H& u w+ G2 S J3 |2 x
For further information: Carolyn Forest, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP," \) u% I7 B' f2 Q% q& t! o- G
(416) 814-5730, carolyn.forest@ca.pwc.com3 ]! w1 ]# f1 M# ]1 E- X4 {; D
http://www.newswire.ca/en/releas ... r2007/05/c4080.html) q0 ~, f7 b3 m% L1 B
- i, w) X; H* n4 }) i[ 本帖最后由 QWE321 于 2007-11-13 09:08 编辑 ] |
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