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Attention Real Estate Reporters:
! z5 K$ O" z8 _6 r
& k* R* ]8 x9 H% h" q9 NDespite US housing woes Canadian real estate remains upbeat 5 E( r Y/ j% T+ S' \* S& d
TORONTO, Nov. 5 /CNW/ - Leading real estate experts are predicting the US
, X9 i( X0 B0 D7 Ecommercial real estate market will slow in 2008 and follow a similar pattern
! c1 G9 P9 n" S. m i \! cas the current residential market. However, according to the annual Emerging' z1 e# C0 q5 M, R" m
Trends in Real Estate 2008 report, released by PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC)
$ x, r1 W f* z6 ~9 Band the Urban Land Institute (ULI), their Canadian counterparts are much more
( |" x5 N6 k* Z5 g2 ~upbeat.
# _7 }1 r/ V" z A0 n+ U' t& _ Now in its 29th year, Emerging Trends is the oldest, most highly regarded
0 n0 l9 o7 g0 t* ^/ s# s3 G% y# W0 Kannual industry outlook for the real estate industry. The report reflects
. S6 T$ U( a) v+ Minterviews with and surveys of more than 600 of the industry's leading real& [4 e4 Z6 A# Y1 `/ f. [9 Z
estate experts, including investors, developers, property company
% w$ @8 Q3 G1 o# M- O& g$ J arepresentatives, lenders, brokers and consultants in both Canada and the US.
/ R' @, u" N5 M$ y. [# cOther versions of this report are conducted in countries around the world- {4 C7 J( T7 L3 `/ B
including Asia Pacific and Europe.% Z4 u! X) d( |0 t0 {
According to Chris Potter, PwC partner and leader of the firm's Canadian
8 V- I8 r2 x! l6 l" I1 aReal Estate Tax practice, Canada benefits from a more conservative investment" }9 n3 q+ M; o* t5 p9 v0 k6 A- |3 Q
environment than the US. "In Canada, institution-dominated markets appear to6 B' [9 Q K6 a, N
be avoiding 'transaction mania', but real estate values have reached record% [" T" n. J8 ^; [) x
highs and a strong economy has accelerated tenant demand for space."
- r2 ], Q* L$ `4 p, b According to American respondents, a healthy correction south of the' |9 x0 f- b# a3 p" |9 j+ }
border will likely bypass long-term investors but penalize late-to-the-game* {1 B: V' {9 A) d+ i
speculators and overleveraged buyers. Canadian respondents to the survey% k. N. D; k1 z* v& @7 o
remain positive about sidestepping any serious impacts of this possible US
; \7 {) i6 K' d T( _correction. Close to 36% view their prospects for profitability in 2008 to be2 p% i! Q' A5 ]% s' Q8 j3 `
very good and a further 22.4% say they're excellent.
8 P3 l" h0 @8 n4 j5 [& t* @" o$ G The strongest areas of real estate business activity for Canadian
' `1 v$ v" i: g# F) q4 h- ?! R: orespondents is predicted to be within real estate services, followed by- k3 ~8 F0 I$ E' y
commercial/multifamily development and homebuilding/residential land d) U. b6 {: n1 c% {2 e9 A
development. All property sectors share positive prospects across the country
7 a0 n; C- d. vespecially industrial and retail with respondents, on average, stating
- a: @4 P0 \% X8 J& Ydevelopment prospects are expected to be modestly good to good. The6 P) C1 n+ R+ m7 {, T
residential for-sale market is also expected to fair well, but might need to9 T& F: v7 {" v+ e' a( [) q0 z( G
take a breather as homebuilders cannot keep up with the current pace and
6 o: t3 r, q' \& l+ w" q0 `, Vsingle-family housing looks overpriced.7 j( R- [2 e) z
Office stock is seeing limited inventories and dated product fill up with$ u' \6 Y& m; @0 B
tenants. Except for Montreal, where office vacancies are nearing 9%. Canadian$ g* Z6 b& E% @3 U) t+ l
metropolitan areas boast below 5% vacancies, and rents have room to push
; b8 q% t2 i5 A* O F/ }8 Dhigher. The survey is also showing that costs and land scarcity is limiting
4 l: G6 p, f+ C8 i* a! Fnew development. Hotel investment and development prospects are modestly good,
3 G8 p( X. V2 ~, o( B7 gand most respondents rate this sector either a buy or a hold. Rental/ @' n: Q( v' b' j7 [, l) u
apartments are doing well in major cities with high immigration flows. Primary' f: _7 y7 U9 C" H4 P$ }
western cities - Vancouver, Calgary, and Edmonton - are veering toward housing* c: o- X1 t+ k# k( t
shortages as workers, attracted by a plethora of well-paying jobs, pour into* z9 c& O A! [5 N
the energy zone. Apartment occupancies are soaring in these areas. Development" ^+ e) e! c" s: M; i
in other regions remains difficult because of costs and land scarcity.
. J) w) k8 R3 t5 S- e# U A3 L2 T) h) J; v& {! T6 z! {: {
Canadian Markets to Watch+ r& @7 S/ w# g+ F+ J6 p! O6 ?
# T1 D7 ~8 i. @. @ The report comments on how Canadians like to live and work in central
% M; p# U c0 x) L+ S! d. v/ }cities, as long as they can afford it. If housing is too pricey in 24-hour
3 ~) Q- V% a% @$ h/ P8 f9 k( M7 gneighbourhoods, people move to inner-ring suburbs or beyond and commute back
; e/ q1 z. r1 K6 z1 P$ A8 ~into the cores. Investors, especially the institutions, are concentrated in
" J% U- c% u4 _; ^$ ndowntown areas too. Planners and developers focus on infill and more vertical m8 o$ @% t% c( h
projects, which reinforce the urban cores. The hot-growth energy cities out
$ q/ ^0 w) T4 v7 a, Q: Rwest - Calgary and Edmonton - score the highest ratings for investment
1 \' v; ?$ V/ v9 u& hprospects, development, and for-sale housing, although it is not certain
& r& O; q$ J/ N3 G; f' a0 \9 w2 Ywhether the recent announcements on royalties will have any effect on this.
) K+ J0 D, o3 I' |, VToronto, Canada's premier global pathway city, and Vancouver also have high6 K- F- y$ w2 r. s9 n
ratings. Ottawa and Montreal follow, with Halifax lagging.
+ L. @: N8 d* Z& R; @+ A6 }/ z; E3 u) f" ]4 r
Calgary/Edmonton3 D' h( H0 U7 q& m
; {: X0 M1 S9 Z p# P8 ~5 V1 {4 b Calgary is the Canada's "resource" capital and North America's number-one$ P) M9 S7 L M9 H; d8 g
boomtown. Survey respondents foresee strong buys for all sectors: 53.5% give a2 D8 V9 E+ C! O2 e; N( \- G" w
buy recommendation for Hotel Property, 52.8% for Industrial/Distribution,
# o- w# Q, s3 u7 Q/ k3 [+ B. ^ {48.1% for Retail and Apartment Residential and 44.6% for Office Property.* a0 r- W4 w$ X# e! |
Furthermore, on average the majority of respondents see Calgary For-Sale* ]. s: r" Q9 i4 f
Homebuilding prospects as very good. Edmonton is closely mimicking the
) l' n: d8 X7 PCalgary-style growth wave and as long as demand for energy resources stays. R' r/ n3 q0 @
strong, this market will continue to do well.$ C6 n% \" F! f: N1 c
4 P1 Z8 W* J8 O6 g( y" J8 i Vancouver1 k" J- l) \8 S* H6 P
7 l- z# W3 w# ~) ^0 R' p' g1 q u% h
Vancouver's diversified economy is roaring, the mining industry is) X% Z, @# ]' J+ }
booming and the city provides a large port and a high-tech center. Outrageous9 s* ^+ o: d) W1 n$ @3 F; z
real estate prices frustrate homebuyers and commercial investors and the! ~) D& x& N6 j& ^, ?
market is extremely hard to crack. The 2010 Winter Olympic Games is also a1 o0 s- ~7 c1 y/ q$ U# m/ O5 ~
growth driver and accordingly 44.7% of respondents give Vancouver a buy
+ l" b- L# x4 r: urecommendation for Hotel Property. A further 43.5% give a buy Retail, 41.3%3 b! n( f3 n1 L2 T, w1 h. t
for Industrial/Distribution and 36.7% for Office Property followed by 34.1%
+ R$ O+ F6 g: k) i/ efor Apartment Residential property. Vancouver also ranks in the good to very
+ l0 V; m$ _: k. H: ?" `good mark for for-sale homebuilding prospects.
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0 M) a( B" m4 s$ x' g% z5 T' _ Toronto
6 Y. {8 X, u1 @+ @/ R: E! S& g3 B& f& g! x B Q6 n% ?% P" z
Toronto ranks as a major global pathway destination, 24-hour city, and
- E+ a! \# E: B5 D6 u& Jmanufacturing hub. Compared with other national financial centers, the city is
3 B% A& D" \; H6 Urelatively inexpensive. However, the rising loonie is hurting manufacturing- z w J: M: T9 F
industries, and clouds over the US economy threaten to stall out momentum.
& Y" O' g$ B9 O/ W/ kThree new office towers are under construction, adding 3 million new square
, F% r9 f4 u1 h# L7 ffeet of office space. Notably, Office (49.1%), Industrial (46.2%) and0 ^$ ~. Q) ]$ Q! o
Apartments (40.8%) are given solid buys.
0 w* k. n& ?/ [' N
9 P* g6 q+ n" t! y& U+ _; s; } Montreal( x* L8 @1 G! W& Z2 }9 c$ r
% q! f! J0 \- y" ~( \: W; g Montreal continues to face concerns about market stability and overall+ t5 V3 l* r. Q0 r3 A4 n J" c4 g
growth prospects as major companies no longer choose it as a place to set up
% E0 T- b! E }5 I# k( pshop. But, plenty of government offices fill space. Of the larger cities in) G; i. k4 J& g, m
Canada, Montreal ranks lowest as a "buy" recommendation in all real estate+ c8 q8 J% E/ U6 P
sectors. However, respondents generally rated all Montreal real estate sectors
# {6 b, A' q& a U, l! vhigher as a "hold" recommendation.! P. }7 V: b; T* u
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The report notes that best bets for investors for the coming years
5 Z$ k% i' w0 U7 K: o. @* u4 kinclude a focus on all property sectors in the high-growth western energy8 P! \# O1 g" B# H* T; P
markets, hold on central business district office space, develop infill condos
/ d* `+ M# l/ U" enear subways stops in Toronto, buy infill sites wherever you can and invest
8 Z+ y, Y4 x( t. c. qoverseas. Potter concludes, "Domestic opportunities are too limited at current
2 [) A2 O; [" I: T5 q; mprices."
1 M1 _5 J" F5 E A copy of Emerging Trends in Real Estate(R) 2008 is available at
+ Q9 F( ?; _5 Z8 g! Z; r4 ]www.uli.org or www.pwc.com/imre.
( ^ O9 Q3 k8 Z4 c# _
" S% \3 {# b, o. l _ About PricewaterhouseCoopers
. B- e6 M" Z: v u8 k& `+ N3 C9 r: p: [1 F- _1 s
PricewaterhouseCoopers (www.pwc.com) provides industry-focused assurance,
1 e6 o4 t2 ?9 ?6 F( Htax and advisory services to build public trust and enhance value for its
' _1 |* X- {7 dclients and their stakeholders. More than 140,000 people in 149 countries1 l) L' k2 i( @( E, u. p
across our network share their thinking, experience and solutions to develop5 o3 U' v% a& Y3 J" y
fresh perspectives and practical advice. Now celebrating 100 years of
" N- R( p6 w I& i& b# wexcellence in Canada, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP (www.pwc.com/ca) and its9 ]2 \8 p( K9 T# h9 |4 d- i
related entities have more than 5,200 partners and staff in offices across the
6 C1 g# D7 H7 q, Y& [" F- b! v5 Mcountry.
9 ~" L1 ~: w8 J; s& \$ Q* p' m "PricewaterhouseCoopers" refers to PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, an Ontario5 U6 W3 c) n2 a' d3 e# \ P- R
limited liability partnership, or, as the context requires, the) i/ P B# }& Q! l$ F" u6 p7 e$ W
PricewaterhouseCoopers global network or other member firms of the network,
: Z8 s5 v8 z1 m4 V# m6 R6 Y& \% meach of which is a separate and independent legal entity.: p% S6 B4 i& ?8 k1 g4 o8 O3 Q
' j2 M* {8 L# k8 t$ R6 ~ About the Urban Land Institute- s7 H3 F) u3 Y& E; [1 e
3 s$ o2 a8 C8 o1 ?# F" c7 X; Y
The Urban Land Institute (www.uli.org) is a nonprofit education and) @+ a, P+ t9 n4 Q' j
research institute supported by its members. Its mission is to provide9 U% S# p5 @/ S3 L* n' {
leadership in the responsible use of land and in sustaining and creating/ B; }/ c) O: O b! B- C2 j2 B' h" e
thriving communities worldwide. Established in 1936, the Institute has more) | Z$ G$ B2 _4 T" o9 O
than 38,000 members representing all aspects of land use and development0 [ g- n$ y1 L
disciplines.2 j! m. m* y3 Q2 Z7 r
The Urban Land Institute is an active and growing organization in Canada.
7 y! B* r4 C+ s; p: U- tWith nearly 700 members across the country, Canada's first ULI District3 B: m5 R N: [' ^; O7 Q
Council was established in Toronto in 2005 and a second District Council is% t! F" p) z$ V2 e4 E2 ]$ R
now being formed in British Columbia. The Toronto District Council will be5 C! y# ~* \& ?5 [
hosting a special event on Emerging Trends in Real Estate on November 20th,8 \0 t, L" q7 M1 l
2007, featuring Jonathan Miller, the principal author of the report, Blake' s5 g. W; [, a6 i& x1 J8 S$ s; r
Hutcheson, President of CB Richard Ellis Canada Ltd., and George Carras,: E" L: D" m/ `, Z. i$ F/ [8 P
President of RealNet Canada Inc. For more information on this event, please: b6 N) F, I5 d2 s% l% S
call the Toronto District Council Coordinator at (647) 258-0017, or look on* @3 T/ \! H- B9 _4 I
the web at www.uli.org/events/index.cfm?id=3066.' m1 X$ s( ~" f7 o: q; N
' C8 i7 @, c% f
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2 A0 z6 ^, z4 ?. c+ _
For further information: Carolyn Forest, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP,) b9 i2 W/ C8 g5 c' [, l
(416) 814-5730, carolyn.forest@ca.pwc.com
4 L7 f' T" D8 ~$ khttp://www.newswire.ca/en/releas ... r2007/05/c4080.html% K K' L" M+ P, `) u
" V0 B4 T" ~% E# D$ I[ 本帖最后由 QWE321 于 2007-11-13 09:08 编辑 ] |
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