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Attention Real Estate Reporters: . s6 o, M" r: n; a
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Despite US housing woes Canadian real estate remains upbeat & U2 ?2 z+ q6 v
TORONTO, Nov. 5 /CNW/ - Leading real estate experts are predicting the US
9 b' _$ |0 H0 G# A5 ~. p2 ]commercial real estate market will slow in 2008 and follow a similar pattern9 f* q2 Y9 q! D2 m- w7 C: _5 X
as the current residential market. However, according to the annual Emerging9 w- q+ f" K7 D4 b# u. ?' Y
Trends in Real Estate 2008 report, released by PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC)
+ I' M& n. H; O6 ]) Z* n8 n4 M8 B3 _and the Urban Land Institute (ULI), their Canadian counterparts are much more; l9 g% g2 S& c( {. M$ B3 U
upbeat.! k' [0 C& S9 v" J
Now in its 29th year, Emerging Trends is the oldest, most highly regarded
- j2 B6 X/ p# c& w* E6 eannual industry outlook for the real estate industry. The report reflects
: g8 I* U. v8 @) a }interviews with and surveys of more than 600 of the industry's leading real, R7 p/ O; L$ j7 I4 b6 ]
estate experts, including investors, developers, property company
7 {# w) e8 o' T+ v- trepresentatives, lenders, brokers and consultants in both Canada and the US.$ C/ z; @, |3 T$ \$ }' s, B% K. u. O
Other versions of this report are conducted in countries around the world z) ^1 S/ a. `% [3 s4 ?
including Asia Pacific and Europe.1 J3 }8 X9 b8 a% h
According to Chris Potter, PwC partner and leader of the firm's Canadian4 |8 l' e/ b [) Q U+ L/ M x: K, ~
Real Estate Tax practice, Canada benefits from a more conservative investment
+ |( }% b/ U" |# _5 Q5 `' Eenvironment than the US. "In Canada, institution-dominated markets appear to
3 u- Q6 K2 i7 g0 J- o3 hbe avoiding 'transaction mania', but real estate values have reached record
9 R: {/ A$ @) a8 t% R0 Nhighs and a strong economy has accelerated tenant demand for space."
, c6 a3 z! Z4 R( N8 n( V According to American respondents, a healthy correction south of the
, T" @ M {$ H' k' [border will likely bypass long-term investors but penalize late-to-the-game
* A0 j) v. Z. k- F; Kspeculators and overleveraged buyers. Canadian respondents to the survey; v' A4 ~7 F6 a
remain positive about sidestepping any serious impacts of this possible US
# |/ c) q/ Y* X6 ycorrection. Close to 36% view their prospects for profitability in 2008 to be. P5 a3 n, a5 |* _* b
very good and a further 22.4% say they're excellent.
* N# [$ \0 p# | The strongest areas of real estate business activity for Canadian) C0 u; v/ @5 i2 Z7 p, T
respondents is predicted to be within real estate services, followed by
4 I; k$ w+ g% g6 L" acommercial/multifamily development and homebuilding/residential land
- V* l. D* y- J$ L% S# Adevelopment. All property sectors share positive prospects across the country
# h) h. h: x3 ^* n- F" L7 respecially industrial and retail with respondents, on average, stating' s. K, c, r7 o: D
development prospects are expected to be modestly good to good. The8 u( o; j. ^! f" F; A
residential for-sale market is also expected to fair well, but might need to) I7 e2 O) t4 E: J4 A
take a breather as homebuilders cannot keep up with the current pace and' X( a. t7 l4 K3 Y/ \: Z* n% V
single-family housing looks overpriced.# A, a5 U* x- o9 Q
Office stock is seeing limited inventories and dated product fill up with
- i* T- F- f8 S7 @' h- h1 N3 f& l! Ntenants. Except for Montreal, where office vacancies are nearing 9%. Canadian
1 H! r- G x1 y4 B/ x- r V7 ~metropolitan areas boast below 5% vacancies, and rents have room to push) F& M" M) q; i
higher. The survey is also showing that costs and land scarcity is limiting0 n5 n- i* D! Z; Q& _& k S
new development. Hotel investment and development prospects are modestly good,
. ]1 G2 b- T: p7 sand most respondents rate this sector either a buy or a hold. Rental$ @* Y$ T. I) e: N
apartments are doing well in major cities with high immigration flows. Primary5 \5 @5 B( b5 d4 E$ t3 R
western cities - Vancouver, Calgary, and Edmonton - are veering toward housing8 L! e" C" ~1 s4 a) p4 |5 j
shortages as workers, attracted by a plethora of well-paying jobs, pour into1 G" Q% [( l! \# |$ O
the energy zone. Apartment occupancies are soaring in these areas. Development4 r8 C* H" A3 G4 A. u- ?
in other regions remains difficult because of costs and land scarcity.7 M4 G) d8 ^: ?
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Canadian Markets to Watch) N( N) H1 g1 H: v* Q4 h0 J
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The report comments on how Canadians like to live and work in central* C E: ?9 N: b1 w
cities, as long as they can afford it. If housing is too pricey in 24-hour" {/ w' I- X& P; z/ H
neighbourhoods, people move to inner-ring suburbs or beyond and commute back
2 {1 W% V. O% O' @into the cores. Investors, especially the institutions, are concentrated in9 T. Q3 E# f# q6 G
downtown areas too. Planners and developers focus on infill and more vertical9 n. E% w5 I, f8 x: v4 Z1 g
projects, which reinforce the urban cores. The hot-growth energy cities out
$ J0 }0 E7 _8 W2 O4 B8 l8 q1 Ywest - Calgary and Edmonton - score the highest ratings for investment/ I/ H& Y3 o6 B# K" r
prospects, development, and for-sale housing, although it is not certain
. F; i9 S% \5 y2 ?8 {$ gwhether the recent announcements on royalties will have any effect on this.! Q$ V; P" b3 {$ O
Toronto, Canada's premier global pathway city, and Vancouver also have high5 [. P7 ^+ V& q9 l# s. D" p5 u
ratings. Ottawa and Montreal follow, with Halifax lagging.9 u% z2 x2 G! O @9 F
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Calgary/Edmonton3 x7 @. g: `1 F! K
6 E$ |$ ~4 |3 }/ F0 h Calgary is the Canada's "resource" capital and North America's number-one. C0 Q- U- X- Z$ F( K+ M, a4 z
boomtown. Survey respondents foresee strong buys for all sectors: 53.5% give a
; I, D! W3 s$ l: p- e8 {- rbuy recommendation for Hotel Property, 52.8% for Industrial/Distribution,9 F5 d: U0 T% ?& D1 }: s8 P$ }
48.1% for Retail and Apartment Residential and 44.6% for Office Property.
: y6 Z; g( n, d) bFurthermore, on average the majority of respondents see Calgary For-Sale
* l6 L& f0 @9 gHomebuilding prospects as very good. Edmonton is closely mimicking the9 v2 }) r4 n& s/ u' W, ^3 ^
Calgary-style growth wave and as long as demand for energy resources stays
! x `/ s* U; Y& y& g6 Y0 Qstrong, this market will continue to do well.2 c: ?. N0 X+ k7 b* z" u4 n
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Vancouver6 H7 q# F7 U2 b# p
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Vancouver's diversified economy is roaring, the mining industry is5 |) {6 U" Q6 t3 `5 y8 C- \, w
booming and the city provides a large port and a high-tech center. Outrageous
; T, Z/ Y; k, ^6 {real estate prices frustrate homebuyers and commercial investors and the
, e0 c0 A' R3 X: ]/ Mmarket is extremely hard to crack. The 2010 Winter Olympic Games is also a
0 f a8 \: w& x. F, pgrowth driver and accordingly 44.7% of respondents give Vancouver a buy
3 d d/ X7 N2 Irecommendation for Hotel Property. A further 43.5% give a buy Retail, 41.3%
* Z+ X9 D) z& s. N8 N g" Z' Y! Wfor Industrial/Distribution and 36.7% for Office Property followed by 34.1%
@) e! \3 R& o i: |: O" ^for Apartment Residential property. Vancouver also ranks in the good to very! L: s' a. \# `( j' k0 E
good mark for for-sale homebuilding prospects.: A' h6 o+ t& t+ r
- T. R- t3 @0 c$ g2 K* h4 }' v$ L Toronto
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/ ?! y9 x/ c4 m: p( i# X Toronto ranks as a major global pathway destination, 24-hour city, and9 B' v4 s9 y0 _7 }, Q7 i
manufacturing hub. Compared with other national financial centers, the city is4 N. a. M3 V# k$ F* u" N, X% n
relatively inexpensive. However, the rising loonie is hurting manufacturing
# C9 a4 Z5 E0 c' G, l9 iindustries, and clouds over the US economy threaten to stall out momentum.- T3 `3 T* B/ I% Q7 p+ z6 `. W
Three new office towers are under construction, adding 3 million new square
9 S# _1 k7 q$ A Rfeet of office space. Notably, Office (49.1%), Industrial (46.2%) and# v- s) E) m5 g$ ^; @! }
Apartments (40.8%) are given solid buys.- {$ p- k# B. Q6 o9 I
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Montreal
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* z1 `! e6 Q |% [1 {. b* u Montreal continues to face concerns about market stability and overall
% Y; S4 r* w$ X3 R3 O0 U, ~; U. \3 U4 Agrowth prospects as major companies no longer choose it as a place to set up# }6 H5 i( k7 @( w. ~" z+ V
shop. But, plenty of government offices fill space. Of the larger cities in
& c, X1 x+ K% O% U3 i- R0 XCanada, Montreal ranks lowest as a "buy" recommendation in all real estate. L" m8 m) P* p6 M8 j
sectors. However, respondents generally rated all Montreal real estate sectors: g0 ^( c w% T& W$ L6 B
higher as a "hold" recommendation.: m! b: f7 D; N8 Y4 C$ F @
6 W2 x9 S+ ^/ G5 F/ n7 e8 F% H The report notes that best bets for investors for the coming years
6 o7 T g& x* i. ?) Minclude a focus on all property sectors in the high-growth western energy
+ {) p8 O3 \5 U# Z7 f s/ {' vmarkets, hold on central business district office space, develop infill condos8 O, a$ e6 V* \
near subways stops in Toronto, buy infill sites wherever you can and invest
0 B: Z: Y9 g* o- L) X' f) Aoverseas. Potter concludes, "Domestic opportunities are too limited at current
5 F! g) \/ O' [* |2 T- g! fprices."8 U$ T7 l O1 Z) ?
A copy of Emerging Trends in Real Estate(R) 2008 is available at# t3 A/ G% Z1 N& W
www.uli.org or www.pwc.com/imre.5 b; s8 u* z+ b- u# f. x
/ B) Y7 G k C. c0 D About PricewaterhouseCoopers
" x+ R# m& M& E% x+ z3 P) i6 ]$ w
% E& X5 o( Z, E. j2 Y PricewaterhouseCoopers (www.pwc.com) provides industry-focused assurance,
+ |% A- X9 F7 k% Qtax and advisory services to build public trust and enhance value for its" F& r+ ?- Z; @4 ^" t( ~" u) A
clients and their stakeholders. More than 140,000 people in 149 countries
# N( s. T- D' H' _. o( jacross our network share their thinking, experience and solutions to develop* |; f: t {/ ^
fresh perspectives and practical advice. Now celebrating 100 years of/ t2 U, b) b3 y. {, S, `, @
excellence in Canada, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP (www.pwc.com/ca) and its6 l4 |; B. p; f: x9 j/ x W, d; d* Z
related entities have more than 5,200 partners and staff in offices across the
0 x6 U. W# B, u' n& E* N& {country.
$ u' x, u: k3 U; t5 D "PricewaterhouseCoopers" refers to PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, an Ontario6 k# ]5 J% F( k: E: k
limited liability partnership, or, as the context requires, the% X% W' t( q7 t- {5 j( y
PricewaterhouseCoopers global network or other member firms of the network,
$ U2 F1 c' o0 d4 c6 Z+ aeach of which is a separate and independent legal entity.
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& h9 l) a" ~7 F+ P About the Urban Land Institute: d0 _8 m" R4 V! h8 K* Z
# E3 k: g$ ?7 ^/ p0 W3 ?( w3 `% f: Z The Urban Land Institute (www.uli.org) is a nonprofit education and# B/ [/ \- H4 B( P
research institute supported by its members. Its mission is to provide! o1 f5 S. w/ {& P& a2 t
leadership in the responsible use of land and in sustaining and creating
$ b! ]- P( ^4 [" U2 X: v$ mthriving communities worldwide. Established in 1936, the Institute has more
6 K& f% |. s0 _) p; Cthan 38,000 members representing all aspects of land use and development2 z8 }/ E7 r. X, l3 \ O8 i
disciplines.% K4 @0 o# Q$ k6 H
The Urban Land Institute is an active and growing organization in Canada.3 z& b% n8 J q( c2 |
With nearly 700 members across the country, Canada's first ULI District# v& o8 W. q5 @! h4 A( J9 |& g/ s
Council was established in Toronto in 2005 and a second District Council is7 V$ \2 C% ^. ]+ Z, y6 ~
now being formed in British Columbia. The Toronto District Council will be
% X4 _( u( z# k% g" Thosting a special event on Emerging Trends in Real Estate on November 20th,
9 D& Z' |+ Q- u) o4 O' u& V2007, featuring Jonathan Miller, the principal author of the report, Blake
; m3 E2 K# s* u5 mHutcheson, President of CB Richard Ellis Canada Ltd., and George Carras,* Q: f3 S; H! d! ~
President of RealNet Canada Inc. For more information on this event, please
8 v- L$ V. `/ g0 J" Qcall the Toronto District Council Coordinator at (647) 258-0017, or look on
3 i, D+ q" C; N% I9 i8 e* athe web at www.uli.org/events/index.cfm?id=3066.* o/ S( O% D0 N. \; Z% e* L
4 }) V$ e7 z5 P7 W y9 s/ n% Y* I
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1 R' P, r J7 d1 ^( {" P6 F4 E% wFor further information: Carolyn Forest, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP,& o+ U5 [5 G# R" g j: j
(416) 814-5730, carolyn.forest@ca.pwc.com
4 b& i, y8 v( h0 m2 h7 chttp://www.newswire.ca/en/releas ... r2007/05/c4080.html9 G1 f, Z8 o/ s& c& B
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