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Attention Real Estate Reporters:
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Despite US housing woes Canadian real estate remains upbeat 3 G2 J% q6 s; j+ F% \& v# t8 w2 K7 k
TORONTO, Nov. 5 /CNW/ - Leading real estate experts are predicting the US
. }* G8 G r7 Z# W6 O& r2 `, b1 lcommercial real estate market will slow in 2008 and follow a similar pattern3 r% g/ R. g3 n0 o3 t
as the current residential market. However, according to the annual Emerging
1 ^: |- A6 q7 t( W+ a8 JTrends in Real Estate 2008 report, released by PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC), H- b8 n" x. R: t7 M6 |
and the Urban Land Institute (ULI), their Canadian counterparts are much more
: D# l( f5 }9 b; F0 c3 @; w) cupbeat.8 A7 }! s7 K: |6 y, u( Q# ?
Now in its 29th year, Emerging Trends is the oldest, most highly regarded2 b( W) _4 t- [. p# O, N, z
annual industry outlook for the real estate industry. The report reflects
) X) `0 n/ L% p3 w1 sinterviews with and surveys of more than 600 of the industry's leading real
6 w. N- B# Q' W- b) `" J* Pestate experts, including investors, developers, property company
" M0 ^' c, i7 p: a, H/ Rrepresentatives, lenders, brokers and consultants in both Canada and the US.
- E$ ?, W$ x% H7 l& _: x& jOther versions of this report are conducted in countries around the world* _, h' o- w: h
including Asia Pacific and Europe.
. Z8 {/ v# Z' `9 r4 N' l According to Chris Potter, PwC partner and leader of the firm's Canadian
; N+ Z( L4 P% a& h0 A2 s1 GReal Estate Tax practice, Canada benefits from a more conservative investment
0 c' @' T# W" p: Menvironment than the US. "In Canada, institution-dominated markets appear to r4 @6 {/ G; u- W; K
be avoiding 'transaction mania', but real estate values have reached record) R, p7 B6 l. G
highs and a strong economy has accelerated tenant demand for space."
) _' W* V8 z- x5 d, J. I. J0 B According to American respondents, a healthy correction south of the0 I2 I }$ |2 e9 \( ]4 j2 n. P* k
border will likely bypass long-term investors but penalize late-to-the-game: y; n3 p @( R5 i# L; n: f
speculators and overleveraged buyers. Canadian respondents to the survey
3 w- O/ Z/ B0 N) m+ gremain positive about sidestepping any serious impacts of this possible US
* W+ \: U8 i& f0 _7 }correction. Close to 36% view their prospects for profitability in 2008 to be4 r) b! ~7 X: b; V0 U
very good and a further 22.4% say they're excellent.
0 A) S! l3 c/ j( c; K& f The strongest areas of real estate business activity for Canadian4 N' Y9 B$ O8 o! W4 ^
respondents is predicted to be within real estate services, followed by
- p$ ]5 l: a. }) Xcommercial/multifamily development and homebuilding/residential land2 I9 U" ]% n0 M7 w! m
development. All property sectors share positive prospects across the country
* @9 ~" s1 x$ `& g( ~0 d9 Lespecially industrial and retail with respondents, on average, stating
- e' l7 z7 c: sdevelopment prospects are expected to be modestly good to good. The
* _9 T; C4 U/ ~" Jresidential for-sale market is also expected to fair well, but might need to$ c; J5 Z7 o4 R( ^% z
take a breather as homebuilders cannot keep up with the current pace and/ Q, a4 w, {; C2 `' p
single-family housing looks overpriced.. ]3 R6 D* ?, v2 Z/ {1 l' E
Office stock is seeing limited inventories and dated product fill up with; p$ z) F# C. |3 v2 F
tenants. Except for Montreal, where office vacancies are nearing 9%. Canadian% e! _$ E' i$ u, c3 [' ^
metropolitan areas boast below 5% vacancies, and rents have room to push6 B/ Z% K, l4 p0 u6 |) e/ U6 J4 }
higher. The survey is also showing that costs and land scarcity is limiting
( Y. t O$ p+ nnew development. Hotel investment and development prospects are modestly good,6 P' z9 U, K% ?; i) l
and most respondents rate this sector either a buy or a hold. Rental' x7 k: L/ ?! C% k
apartments are doing well in major cities with high immigration flows. Primary
7 j+ W, Z) [+ R. X, k2 n( lwestern cities - Vancouver, Calgary, and Edmonton - are veering toward housing
& R+ L+ a/ x6 Y% Yshortages as workers, attracted by a plethora of well-paying jobs, pour into; H# E" [7 y5 y; x
the energy zone. Apartment occupancies are soaring in these areas. Development
9 V9 m$ R+ f/ i7 P! Ein other regions remains difficult because of costs and land scarcity.+ k6 }5 e& P- f- i; V, x
) H. o$ \- {; w' i/ n( S( _' @" ? Canadian Markets to Watch
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% q* v9 {' k( ?1 }: t3 w/ N; c The report comments on how Canadians like to live and work in central
1 w* ` x# b' ]- u9 dcities, as long as they can afford it. If housing is too pricey in 24-hour4 d2 g# |. v* H9 B# K }
neighbourhoods, people move to inner-ring suburbs or beyond and commute back
) Z) K! V& Q/ a8 G- D4 ointo the cores. Investors, especially the institutions, are concentrated in/ g4 o% T X2 M
downtown areas too. Planners and developers focus on infill and more vertical% X, l! ~# T* e6 e% i
projects, which reinforce the urban cores. The hot-growth energy cities out* R% Z i, F$ T
west - Calgary and Edmonton - score the highest ratings for investment3 h0 ~ F% o ?' x* X$ |* y
prospects, development, and for-sale housing, although it is not certain' D. Q$ e8 g; g, E: Q* [
whether the recent announcements on royalties will have any effect on this.0 g+ U- ^) ?1 A* ?% |1 ^
Toronto, Canada's premier global pathway city, and Vancouver also have high6 A2 |0 W! ?6 ~3 D" |
ratings. Ottawa and Montreal follow, with Halifax lagging.) |8 K( D7 h% I2 s
9 L4 @6 L7 ^" E" R+ c
Calgary/Edmonton
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Calgary is the Canada's "resource" capital and North America's number-one+ I2 Q% R1 s9 g, q& ~- _" {, \
boomtown. Survey respondents foresee strong buys for all sectors: 53.5% give a6 j# F# Q! u: p/ O
buy recommendation for Hotel Property, 52.8% for Industrial/Distribution,1 Z2 S6 V- N; m
48.1% for Retail and Apartment Residential and 44.6% for Office Property.
6 ?, t/ G. p# a, B Y' ~8 n, DFurthermore, on average the majority of respondents see Calgary For-Sale, {. C( q+ N2 I g% }
Homebuilding prospects as very good. Edmonton is closely mimicking the
3 q$ q9 E+ Z0 {+ `% vCalgary-style growth wave and as long as demand for energy resources stays8 e, a3 q( K5 U
strong, this market will continue to do well.7 i Y7 d9 `8 g# ?2 w1 Z
3 O( s& A3 c$ g. L# |1 H Vancouver
9 X9 K5 S( F w, g
1 k5 b* I! S/ i7 I Vancouver's diversified economy is roaring, the mining industry is
/ `6 ?1 @2 n& Q9 ?7 b. mbooming and the city provides a large port and a high-tech center. Outrageous
4 }" J$ p' v$ x% freal estate prices frustrate homebuyers and commercial investors and the
, ^3 } p" P1 Rmarket is extremely hard to crack. The 2010 Winter Olympic Games is also a4 I. I$ N% z. ?- v
growth driver and accordingly 44.7% of respondents give Vancouver a buy
+ \. h2 ]; X: ? J& Qrecommendation for Hotel Property. A further 43.5% give a buy Retail, 41.3%
% U0 G4 U* o9 ^for Industrial/Distribution and 36.7% for Office Property followed by 34.1%, ^9 X1 p+ B# ?7 @+ v0 W
for Apartment Residential property. Vancouver also ranks in the good to very
% k6 y$ Z/ @. y; Pgood mark for for-sale homebuilding prospects. c# }$ l# ?" W( w- B1 f# v
1 h2 A! p" a n: h) J Toronto5 \* v2 G r# m! b$ v
( h. P8 l$ b; r+ C2 b- b Toronto ranks as a major global pathway destination, 24-hour city, and1 l! U- [+ W: ~2 Q
manufacturing hub. Compared with other national financial centers, the city is1 e$ c6 ]. d0 A6 j' J4 J* v
relatively inexpensive. However, the rising loonie is hurting manufacturing
$ D" m! g; l) ]industries, and clouds over the US economy threaten to stall out momentum.
R: ^% L: W4 C1 k% j3 ?Three new office towers are under construction, adding 3 million new square
" M% A0 C& E w1 V0 L- ~% g8 ufeet of office space. Notably, Office (49.1%), Industrial (46.2%) and) Y, ]% ?) f7 Z' n4 y; O
Apartments (40.8%) are given solid buys.5 E" _" X- u+ [; O* Q7 {4 U
3 H. M& [, m3 [* I8 u4 a' Y
Montreal
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! P8 K$ b# U# p Montreal continues to face concerns about market stability and overall
" D( e- W. g% E: Ugrowth prospects as major companies no longer choose it as a place to set up! B2 ?( u; f! ~( E9 M
shop. But, plenty of government offices fill space. Of the larger cities in
, U8 |4 m0 L, X3 S2 J; `Canada, Montreal ranks lowest as a "buy" recommendation in all real estate6 [# ^5 [" F& _! r
sectors. However, respondents generally rated all Montreal real estate sectors
8 m! W4 G/ K3 W( W/ _$ dhigher as a "hold" recommendation.
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The report notes that best bets for investors for the coming years
" r& c0 B5 \. I$ kinclude a focus on all property sectors in the high-growth western energy
$ c. H# ]* G' F% [' n, K0 qmarkets, hold on central business district office space, develop infill condos7 v* Q% ^4 m/ [: _1 @* H
near subways stops in Toronto, buy infill sites wherever you can and invest- E+ Q. C# \! x1 Q
overseas. Potter concludes, "Domestic opportunities are too limited at current
- I. r+ f5 b9 Q" e6 d. Aprices."8 g) p1 i, d% S$ J: y7 Q8 t! v
A copy of Emerging Trends in Real Estate(R) 2008 is available at, W. {; L5 R' r7 Z- |& a( _
www.uli.org or www.pwc.com/imre.) D8 t2 T- v+ q! R
6 |2 s# s7 ^# H0 v! I- B% t
About PricewaterhouseCoopers# Q" a+ }: b% e
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PricewaterhouseCoopers (www.pwc.com) provides industry-focused assurance,+ c- p5 D9 w: q a
tax and advisory services to build public trust and enhance value for its& L. K: S: L: Z
clients and their stakeholders. More than 140,000 people in 149 countries# }. ~, p" u3 _# W" G" @
across our network share their thinking, experience and solutions to develop: v+ O# r& B, a. i
fresh perspectives and practical advice. Now celebrating 100 years of$ I, Z, U1 D" X: z! w) {1 f, h
excellence in Canada, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP (www.pwc.com/ca) and its5 G! u" p. b, \0 g/ B1 I
related entities have more than 5,200 partners and staff in offices across the, G* u1 ]* Z# _/ O
country.
; Y: ?$ T* L% `" q2 m, r "PricewaterhouseCoopers" refers to PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, an Ontario
* z' ]0 W: ]3 X7 Nlimited liability partnership, or, as the context requires, the4 z: n I; X0 c- X
PricewaterhouseCoopers global network or other member firms of the network,
: G1 H3 r$ J/ s" j3 V. [; Eeach of which is a separate and independent legal entity.
5 V$ B' ]' H( {" b2 G/ t! I! f5 |
, a% [! | a3 g$ W0 m4 e9 m About the Urban Land Institute
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The Urban Land Institute (www.uli.org) is a nonprofit education and1 T4 H# ^% P! K* {& L
research institute supported by its members. Its mission is to provide
" w0 O- V6 s$ W" ?4 Z$ |leadership in the responsible use of land and in sustaining and creating* J- L; c$ s5 D3 Q1 U4 {( h5 h
thriving communities worldwide. Established in 1936, the Institute has more6 u7 E/ X7 ~& D$ z7 R) f5 d$ }$ Y. ?
than 38,000 members representing all aspects of land use and development
& T5 I; R6 C: h7 ]/ U4 e3 J; Jdisciplines.) d; G2 R ~- p% {) y3 k5 H* ~) \
The Urban Land Institute is an active and growing organization in Canada.
+ n6 L1 Z2 l: V" g, m; pWith nearly 700 members across the country, Canada's first ULI District
0 v+ ^' n/ w5 s0 `& YCouncil was established in Toronto in 2005 and a second District Council is5 z8 o" A) l1 I5 h. ^: H
now being formed in British Columbia. The Toronto District Council will be
# T+ O% O, e A* o4 Z1 U& M2 C8 x! Yhosting a special event on Emerging Trends in Real Estate on November 20th,
! F& T# F/ F+ k0 k- N2007, featuring Jonathan Miller, the principal author of the report, Blake
0 u4 ? }/ F, D$ K/ o& y5 c: pHutcheson, President of CB Richard Ellis Canada Ltd., and George Carras,
$ a9 T8 H' q1 [2 jPresident of RealNet Canada Inc. For more information on this event, please
& E2 c' S: t. Ycall the Toronto District Council Coordinator at (647) 258-0017, or look on
) n) f4 V W' x# p3 s6 Kthe web at www.uli.org/events/index.cfm?id=3066.
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# h6 H& z8 p7 c- `4 CFor further information: Carolyn Forest, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP,
$ y& m" K( h* I/ g- L$ ?2 i# Q(416) 814-5730, carolyn.forest@ca.pwc.com
, q$ L+ |) W* ~http://www.newswire.ca/en/releas ... r2007/05/c4080.html
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