No Crash for Canada Real Market, CIBC said it again

catty

Canadians haven't put themselves deep enough in debt to cause a U.S.-style housing market bust, a CIBC World Markets economist says.
6 _' @) R% d( C' n7 k$ R) S# w" i
In a report issued Tuesday, Benjamin Tal asks: "Where's the trigger for a Canadian house price crash?" He concludes there isn't one.
4 t' U3 A4 ^  D) O" t- g
5 W# ], ~; Y! g+ S3 O4 Z# T"To be sure, house prices in Canada will continue to ease in the coming months," he says. "But the triggers that led to a free fall in Canadian real estate markets in the early 1990s and today in U.S. markets are nowhere to be found."

! P$ G& ~+ x& jAs he sees it, Canadian home buyers never got as reckless as Americans.

# Y; v( n/ C2 X( m  b, i! ~6 Y. _& C"By almost any measure, American households entered the current housing crisis from a more vulnerable position relative to their Canadian counterparts — carrying a heavier debt load and a much lighter net worth position. And when it comes to real estate speculation, Canada was not really a player.
1 r" L5 M+ I: L, `7 |' @! f2 q
"But even more important than the absolute and relative level of debt is the distribution of debt. At the peak of the cycle, subprime and Alt-A mortgages accounted for no less than 33 per cent of originations in the U.S. market. In Canada we estimate that at the peak, non-conforming mortgages reached 5.4 per cent of originations."

Subprime mortgages are those given to the least creditworthy borrowers. Alt-A mortgages are considered a step higher, although the category includes so-called liars' loans in which borrowers are not required to verify their earnings or assets.

. n! p+ ^. ?  _& m7 D! H; CTal says the U.S. meltdown is basically a subprime story.
4 ?( [/ L# E  u8 b
+ c9 T% P( ~: x7 J" _5 h"Eradicate subprime from the U.S. housing market and, instead of the most severe house price meltdown since the great depression, you get a trivial moderate cyclical slowing — something along the line of what we are currently experiencing in Canada."

当然，历史已经证明CIBC他自己在市场预测上没有信誉拉，现在关键的是哪个是导致灾难的Trigger.
看到有个同学已经转过次文章啦，没看到，抱歉。

[ 本帖最后由 catty 于 2008-10-1 09:32 编辑 ]