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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC
# M+ [9 ^! | a7 Y( p3 X* f TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the, R( G: |5 E- _ N# I+ t$ I
middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive5 h. R5 I+ j) y5 X; s+ { e
gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,
7 d% i( {# ]$ K0 qaccording to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.1 `- I6 C" v0 Q" S6 F+ F+ x
"The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"
8 H" D( J2 u6 B- ?, Z" p N# fsaid Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is
& J# m0 d" \, B$ ^5 Z: `! G3 j8 c5 Bimproving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability
4 V% ~: z7 D) c& S- Lmeasures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."6 k8 E7 U u1 @( \) T) X) ^
RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is j. W6 T! |9 @2 a F
worrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,
; p5 h0 y& i2 uwhich runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have
, {4 p! L7 Y& Y+ [$ e' _2 H$ K Dsustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.
e+ Z' `# \+ I9 T3 G1 ^+ i The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the: |0 w0 m* G- b9 ~* z
proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a! _" v" h; @2 L( T9 X4 x
home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.. [4 n& ]0 c. q6 @
Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the& ]; {; e3 ]7 _; W
standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and
! r# t9 x7 [- _- C2 q+ @0 vthe standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.0 L% `5 [% e5 M) V
According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets# o# i9 u) P' M3 x, M5 [
may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in
# Q- G! G" c! C q+ x, U- Ythe closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at
" b: [* z0 p' a8 `historically depressed levels.
, A# f- [, t" O9 Y% y( v4 Z Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost
$ ^4 e6 Y* O" oof homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House! J( O, U) S5 g
prices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the
$ x: t% _. s g5 T6 Mhands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This
- P; H. v. S! Senormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the
2 i6 H* I+ G7 mmonths ahead," added Hogue.% h0 y) D9 v& T! P* P
RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest
! T8 k' M' }" }# ]/ q* V7 dcities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary
: y% V# @2 K( B' Q! \! d42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.& `- f; p% Q! ^7 g5 N8 p9 B/ Z
The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for
$ {7 w4 g% Y: b: Q9 X4 oa broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these0 {- ?; U c2 P' W0 ~ q( ^$ |
cities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only! n; r" b. Y& }" j4 q$ R1 e3 ?6 p
takes mortgage payments relative to income into account.+ e4 D8 P- A* P, t
The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is5 e) n, M( [. A" Y( B
based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property( ^! }4 ~/ \# C( v" b
benchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented* I. V. \ U ^) \
including a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard l+ @8 h( s* ^# c1 D& C4 F+ i
condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.
# Q7 F/ |0 t9 C/ ]For example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership
3 Q% f+ {0 b9 W$ V1 r, R) D/ i( {costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50
4 R4 v+ V# j! R( F' d( V: e ^# O: kper cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.2 Y. X3 K6 W- }
! |1 `. L s1 `4 n1 ?5 d6 a9 N
<<
, o; T- D2 I( u M6 [- ` Highlights from across Canada:1 t) ^4 u6 `' o- I N
* T9 ` R, U7 A; M
- Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has
+ h8 M; L" ?% e& Y, B! I2 R. Z4 i intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing( D9 v/ B R7 `9 R% |; I V0 k0 s
home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound
5 ^3 }, U( V7 e( q/ [5 Y R only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track
# ?( ]+ ^- s# ~0 ]0 {6 D since about the middle of 2007.
9 d) Q8 [# y. G - Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the
2 H2 ]2 j* h3 @4 c+ Z/ K7 i frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to8 k1 ~2 p5 D- C
decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still! u, E2 I3 Z2 H
largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely# r- p$ R& w9 @" z. m
poor affordability levels." }: S" p {$ s" z$ s
- Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the0 |( m, h" j* [% W4 p
vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and* A! l( t3 d. E- j. H. r% t. V: Z
prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.; @) u ]7 u/ @$ O
Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to' {7 B" Q1 ? z9 @0 X
minimize any downside risks." j- S$ u' s* \2 `4 G$ E# l0 {6 ]
- Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market
3 n. W, X% T& V# W conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is; Y' e4 L- K- O4 j
unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early% X. o S4 _5 v
1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly
: i* i% k+ t1 l1 F0 z: t. Q, N9 B9 j being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.8 ~4 t+ K+ i9 Z- Q1 l* }( K
- Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in
6 R: H* U! b! G5 `: ]' D( e6 V Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus
1 i- j, R4 V. e# h4 m- H far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up
( `! U# b% C6 L& C% `) R( J reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be
. ?1 r5 `6 m; K ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only) s$ s# G, g$ K
modestly in recent years.9 m2 y$ I1 }- p2 n& Y5 L, N$ f
- Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the) ^- U- X. i# M( A6 A5 U, i
general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot
) a* h1 m/ D2 D7 r v# L( ~0 t, f spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward
& T+ z' r% S! ]- [/ | price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability
& s5 O5 n" P g0 j0 Z) [% N; J following two years of deterioration.
9 V$ P4 i7 r. A# g) M: q >> |
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