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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC
0 F7 V1 J8 ^; e) ? TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the
6 c+ p' s& A6 P% ^5 q7 F5 Y9 p8 c9 Rmiddle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive u6 _. f0 @9 x& V q' F% y
gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,
$ k5 I+ h7 z. q3 V( y1 q; Naccording to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.! c! U7 Q$ q: B7 E$ x
"The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"1 W6 O% b$ `7 K& c1 ?6 v
said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is
+ [/ Z7 c. {) T0 \% a4 P0 }improving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability6 w) w) D/ d+ h- d- F- `4 D* C
measures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."
/ `2 x% H$ Z6 u" k3 g0 d RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is% h r. A( [* e! N! Q% A5 q
worrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,
6 ^* s$ d5 y! \. p3 z. c( {. Nwhich runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have h7 I- M! m$ t8 P# e/ x- R6 K
sustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.
* g( J0 O# H) |6 [! o The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the
: i" d7 E+ E$ O8 y/ n# L3 @# [proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a0 M9 Q% S# l+ H6 G+ r; C1 W
home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.4 A8 O0 }. W' M) u/ \
Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the% z, H; O! I# d6 V9 D0 G" O, a
standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and
+ I, U2 V; J3 v; B8 r2 J# y6 ythe standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.
5 O) k% I. X8 p5 A According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets I! q; u: g% i; U5 n$ D
may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in
+ q& l) Y2 ?; X* L! F% @( U5 nthe closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at
5 q( A+ @5 U) \historically depressed levels.
1 I. k8 `; Q6 p8 ] Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost
+ C* ~5 }* {9 ^7 D' D( eof homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House+ p' G" S7 J" i/ J# T
prices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the6 |& t" h, G: S {# [0 R
hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This
% }( v* N9 X2 k' Tenormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the& `3 `8 {5 v% d/ k2 n% V p* D
months ahead," added Hogue.
0 H4 j: E4 J: q2 V( | RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest( j- [% i! D9 \7 ~9 w+ H k
cities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary
, _/ Y- ^+ {1 V2 E& t9 g# |42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.3 v$ N& t) B& m$ G; x: ~9 X" S* j/ N
The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for
$ ^ S, K# J X/ W2 Pa broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these
9 ?, [- ?8 ]! L% b7 H" @- Ecities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only
; h5 r6 [/ u( o1 atakes mortgage payments relative to income into account.
% @( g* A- e. l- O5 R$ }& v$ a The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is
) H# @! g5 x7 M% ~; `& K& U1 `based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property
) F% V8 z k+ g& h' \2 q" ?* Lbenchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented
7 k8 i9 k" _" q0 x3 C2 L0 z; H& Yincluding a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard
j- G8 S8 ?$ J2 zcondominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.* A$ e; ]# [2 b
For example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership
' N6 K. z+ S/ N* i( J7 N7 mcosts, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50) i4 n1 W3 i7 ]' t7 T$ w$ Z: P9 S
per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.
6 @+ T4 W; o2 z4 L, O0 Z1 h
Z% N6 _) i; e6 g* G5 n& U( }7 u <<
& P- I @- ~, c2 Y- y Highlights from across Canada:
5 c, R8 h9 w0 ?$ |+ I% I) h
" S2 a: F0 d, A; e" [9 J+ V% R - Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has
, a i, b1 Z* y. C3 a5 a# ^, L intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing
: G1 {$ y; \3 N home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound/ B- S5 \) p, {" u4 j; s# _+ e! t
only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track, j1 x' g+ w7 L2 Z+ L) @& S- k$ `
since about the middle of 2007.! j, P% e' M6 {# v: p% ^+ ?/ P
- Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the% o- a0 e6 \" Z+ \
frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to
4 A6 h, s& y9 i2 b: Y decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still
8 {3 N. f0 b8 y largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely( \$ K& T/ e& P. | m, j
poor affordability levels.; M# u [6 M) [: \1 f6 Z
- Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the
5 U# J' H* _' ~: q$ n; [ vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and
* }# @+ h" A* r prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.: F' R, R2 O% m; I1 O/ f
Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to- Y6 U( F0 L& M0 X; m
minimize any downside risks.
, M" W7 @9 o0 ?. \$ D$ v* S) O, p - Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market/ K; a, n0 O# u0 _9 E4 m
conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is
, x. v9 \% Y$ G$ F, Q7 ^+ d unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early
: `% z8 L- d) e( Y8 `7 g5 ` 1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly8 V8 E, B$ N% E$ F4 q7 W/ h
being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.9 @7 |2 f* W! p5 V0 i9 ]4 C, d2 o
- Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in
' L& g4 v' Q: j Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus
- S' B( {# }& p8 K" e7 o" l0 k far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up6 \! G( D: g4 h% l0 c' F, L4 p
reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be
( j9 `: S5 ], L- f* J7 H6 J3 _ ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only. s0 V& O, [) }
modestly in recent years.7 _8 y+ h# N" A" D6 \
- Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the
3 V) K- e3 h% q- Y* B2 k: m" ] general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot
: ~2 B2 {6 Q0 G$ F! u spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward! V3 Q. g& y9 ^9 f8 Y
price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability
& M1 w; Q* B8 `0 U5 [( K) P6 B4 r following two years of deterioration.
2 g# O; F- ~8 z! a8 T >> |
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