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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC
( W0 L: m7 W- L' _ TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the, m+ i* [ y) R7 W, f
middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive
3 G/ E" q7 s8 r: U0 f" Rgains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,* @) Y4 f" i2 I( }" a" ~8 y o
according to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.0 J3 @# v3 x1 Y( _( l$ `0 j4 N( A
"The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"
3 @1 V+ z4 B L M% Gsaid Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is7 ?+ J5 g) N5 v: n
improving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability
2 q" M, f/ r2 l( t& mmeasures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."- F/ w$ s# L' H8 c+ T1 w& b( @
RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is
' ^: q- }7 q3 ?5 z6 Z4 O) ?; [worrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,9 S6 p5 ^" u. v9 i; F4 q$ K4 y
which runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have$ ~" H) P; @9 h* r2 D: H3 M
sustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.
; ? k1 s6 }6 P% H4 U+ r# z2 A2 z The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the3 M. _) E! O- Z7 W/ a- I5 _ D
proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a
4 ]+ l+ }. D* m! Chome, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.9 N( z! v5 ~! I8 U
Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the
' a6 z+ Z3 _ s& N0 d4 ~$ q6 jstandard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and! j6 [! q* Y! u1 v$ g( G5 Y( R
the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent./ ?3 h% K o x O: |$ ]
According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets( C6 D E8 M1 ?2 T1 `5 I0 V
may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in" O& h5 B) ~1 ]- x
the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at
3 e1 f. U8 V: N3 b9 x$ S$ @" D7 M2 Vhistorically depressed levels.
' O$ s# i# r/ h7 Q" l7 @; N" x2 i Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost# T' e( F) o+ c% J/ O
of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House
1 R" _& J' h- ?3 _/ Hprices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the6 x* ^: C* F) v7 z( v; R/ E
hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This/ k2 N, s- c1 \" R
enormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the. j6 f; N; d* m8 v, L
months ahead," added Hogue.
) Q) k- M, q+ d/ W" Y& q! A' { RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest
3 a* R! H7 r1 b/ d' q! s5 R" zcities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary
L6 A9 z) b* A42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.1 K7 D8 h& |( |; u8 x
The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for
. L; u( X/ L; d& Z# Ma broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these8 L! \5 U* A3 v" T( t
cities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only, n5 O9 |5 Y I$ s9 Q1 x# d
takes mortgage payments relative to income into account.
$ H& m4 i2 m4 ?8 B& A/ g( V The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is
' D) w6 o1 |7 @, _2 ?- H+ \based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property
# S/ d' _8 U, L" e: X" f" Jbenchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented
& `6 A3 @" c0 }including a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard& X8 b# o% A, G5 A# u
condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.
D4 _ @. T5 f' o3 R$ P! zFor example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership
. r* D; d! X3 X2 \* [( tcosts, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50- f; a1 ?! c2 _% U9 S
per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.
8 \, d! r& E# b$ j1 ~+ ^1 |6 I
/ V: d; a7 y: Y# r) Q <<- P& ^) E9 k1 v* e7 \% s
Highlights from across Canada:
( C( W/ G! N- U) ^4 u/ ~1 H R1 _" {; \( p S1 P+ [6 @4 b
- Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has2 N: l' M/ F2 n, a
intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing
# G7 p1 ?( H# F) W: p: b home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound: A% {/ x1 D/ v& N' |
only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track
7 I' K8 q* G% y$ d+ v9 O since about the middle of 2007.; n6 r" g6 M- T" Q t' Q
- Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the P/ U3 w& E$ M; D! T& ^2 V
frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to
& E; W4 K4 g& U7 \. t' ^ m decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still' } j& U: H0 `
largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely5 ?, e* i# q' e$ O' @7 B( R" w5 i
poor affordability levels.
P, G0 ^( R2 `( ~ - Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the
$ S% Q+ I' [0 T* t( B- z: C vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and# L: c- e2 Z" G; w2 g
prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.
- U; x% `3 Z. v# n- L( W* A; y1 D Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to
% { g( l0 A5 H0 @% [7 ]) ~ minimize any downside risks.: N' g2 R% N7 s7 e& d2 s! A* L2 \
- Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market
7 [. p. [2 j: w+ |$ a0 m$ i! G conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is
, H- S8 T" B- E, K( Q$ ~+ }/ o3 [ unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early
0 r6 n. M2 x" c, J5 z2 p8 a 1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly8 Q4 w4 z. u& v8 W7 \. J8 k
being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.
+ \: q% g# N7 A( u; B3 s8 S - Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in
- q. j8 E- o$ l$ Q" t Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus" p; G9 ?7 z( e5 a" f7 w
far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up, v- k/ h/ p. m0 ^; n, z: Q
reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be& N6 H6 k$ }# y
ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only
5 A( C% [$ D6 l D/ q modestly in recent years.
4 K; G. H6 k, b$ ~9 C - Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the
, F9 {7 \* `9 w% r. N, ` general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot
) i9 x8 m: i9 X1 O spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward& u4 Y3 C9 {9 v q B4 l
price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability
a0 f$ }& K" S following two years of deterioration.$ L: x+ r/ Q+ C$ M: j+ {" O/ W! L
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