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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC
3 K8 Z6 {2 n: A: G# m8 |1 s TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the
; L+ O) T" D( W2 ]/ k/ M$ I0 j! h8 Qmiddle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive, Q& {" A) h3 @( w" h+ V; }
gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,
. o! d7 ~, w9 N; r' u( xaccording to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.
) d1 Q- F4 h$ t! k5 r) f "The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"
0 ?( ]) {. w5 p1 jsaid Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is
- y7 H; a' h6 D3 B2 X& ?improving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability0 @0 A6 m/ Y+ u; }- M
measures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."8 ]8 l4 P' d9 D( Y
RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is2 j$ k7 g$ B9 Q0 E1 L$ t7 Q
worrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,
2 G0 m a" v: k+ t7 L" qwhich runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have
5 m* r0 P& |7 d+ V# X. M& Jsustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.! G! h4 k- r, G& {% l" Z% W5 [6 a
The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the
# c1 p0 H4 A3 _/ Pproportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a6 V4 b6 ~2 A( u2 i+ H) a
home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.3 |- w) D9 ~2 Z
Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the
1 m7 ^/ s; G" G7 ?4 ]: c+ k& M2 m* ` Kstandard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and1 W2 j ]" u. \, q5 c4 x0 ~/ q( U5 v
the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.
) r& P* z7 Y( q" \- C: R4 W$ o* \$ M According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets
/ \! U4 D" l% Emay be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in, H# `; x/ f3 U: Z; W
the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at& c z- M; [2 ~6 y
historically depressed levels.
N* @, L( { | F# X Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost
5 `% D/ |5 }$ U% dof homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House
- p# A7 N- V/ X' Iprices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the
6 x- \0 t/ p, U' t0 m3 ~! ]. chands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This
. V% N" d' i: g& L# h5 o* A+ \enormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the
* D0 h8 N3 b* M0 s4 ]months ahead," added Hogue.0 o' T! b- `% \$ C3 k* e
RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest
! Z& z, M" e/ K! Acities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary2 E4 s H+ h& j6 H
42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.; g+ z! `. m7 d2 `- Z0 Y
The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for4 v3 N1 T+ ~& b1 P" z8 X
a broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these
: f/ y- ~6 x4 o, |' k' acities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only- U0 N* L" s4 \& k
takes mortgage payments relative to income into account.' C" m" h; x4 e g! b
The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is! I5 h3 Z l4 h9 [
based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property
; K" ~" A4 _! M- zbenchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented
+ O/ f# ?+ g5 D: H6 Z: xincluding a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard" z7 Y3 N8 [; f9 r
condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home. H. k/ U! o; f1 L9 v/ L
For example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership4 y x, T/ h# q2 k2 B4 C3 q1 w
costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50
0 f$ p" v: o) E5 w$ O' Q8 gper cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.
& K8 S; O& I" y6 f8 A8 z8 }
5 T' `9 y# F" C <</ v& N2 A* ?" q' B5 D) F- X
Highlights from across Canada:4 I: i Q/ @; I" s0 p y, S6 u1 v
5 _$ B4 m1 Y! t+ U1 H8 s) ? - Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has4 E& c9 ^' S# E* F4 N2 w
intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing8 j. ^' A& k9 c* V( ]! z9 \
home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound3 c! P; ^6 |2 x) }" g3 k( K# y
only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track
* |, |3 A) S$ t0 s+ b$ V, W$ _- P since about the middle of 2007.8 P: V% \# V* B5 q0 \ z' U
- Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the% O; J0 X% _1 y$ P3 k- E. W
frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to& L) y! [& q; X6 X: ~7 J
decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still
/ e0 ~" ] b2 m% C1 {6 t5 h largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely
$ G8 V0 n3 N2 \" d9 n3 n3 Q$ d poor affordability levels.
$ H; X2 }& s" Q( W }8 S: \ - Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the
% e: h$ P1 F: n' y; |- a vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and
6 u7 ~& q' P* M prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.5 z7 ~# _; b5 j3 B1 I3 b
Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to0 v. s( v- f0 J- M5 e$ M
minimize any downside risks.1 F. f! `: l+ d$ z
- Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market4 c0 Y+ P" Y/ h& v m
conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is
" g' s3 V. Q( ]+ z" W$ g$ d4 ~# r unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early
! i/ o) D* _+ y" _3 r 1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly8 g6 E, [" v' b. M
being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.
: B8 t$ O! T+ R, D+ a - Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in
l+ P2 t' e+ z# v Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus1 B+ f; w! B: ?: D; a) P9 f2 c* @0 H
far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up7 { y, x8 b" |/ m3 F u T$ ^; W
reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be
# ^$ v" I8 w" M% _) Q: t9 |9 z+ P Y ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only( a! e5 T& v) F3 x# k
modestly in recent years.9 `# I" J" q0 K q& X& w/ m
- Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the
0 L; e. ~7 S) }# a* A. q" Z3 K general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot
7 t5 E$ \2 x9 g. A spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward$ M) I: |$ W5 }) {. K) b
price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability
9 v/ H5 n9 d5 l following two years of deterioration.! \0 c+ d$ S" G8 s; a( T. {% r
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