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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC 7 G' T% P1 Z' m/ q
TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the3 c* h0 W5 \" s5 x
middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive
, X7 c/ A1 [* x; E- q8 Y% V+ ?5 |; ?) \gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,
1 w# e! W1 T( G/ l; |- J3 r" o: caccording to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.2 l' r# J3 N( ]& z6 M
"The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"
* @3 L- E: z$ J b9 Z0 g2 csaid Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is u( j2 m, s; F+ m9 S
improving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability
L9 W+ s( z5 E J' c8 t1 Dmeasures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."
9 M; m) \7 I& m! s7 Q* Y C# N RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is: V$ a# ?/ x0 a2 |& g6 I4 H/ ^
worrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,
! ?* B" j9 A) Vwhich runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have
2 Z& ?4 }) K3 v$ ]) M! Ysustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.
/ Q \( T6 @! h' A The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the
; |- j4 M7 b4 A ^$ gproportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a0 ]3 C2 c( L0 d" c2 n* [# w
home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.2 H m4 |" E O$ M0 y5 w
Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the8 N9 W; m* }3 y$ p
standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and
- \, b+ q& o6 M( f- c6 Y- Cthe standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.
8 S6 K$ f v6 o6 E! Y$ @3 t According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets8 t! }# p# X$ w# Q x7 \( s
may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in# W8 t" y6 S1 |* i0 b' L3 `
the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at
$ i8 c. ?( F ?9 m C% b2 _( Ehistorically depressed levels.
l$ E( B$ j* \ Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost7 ]; u$ b: q+ A+ O u& m
of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House
* n+ Q3 v" m) W1 p& \4 jprices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the0 b' [& a" s9 _- ]) o
hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This
- I8 M& Y2 y* B9 t& d( i5 Eenormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the6 h6 c7 P2 v# W7 v7 d/ F. ^
months ahead," added Hogue.
7 O; v3 y% b. ?" O RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest
+ [; P6 t- O& J2 a; w6 ]cities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary% Z4 |5 y8 j9 l, S
42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.* |5 S) p' \! y, I& b/ T
The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for
0 g8 B1 W' S6 i; g* `( ba broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these
1 R7 o' f' f5 S& Wcities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only. J+ L1 U) a( I- @
takes mortgage payments relative to income into account.
: F! d7 |" r$ n1 y# m+ R/ n The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is
* g' M6 R! N K) W# x! \# M0 o/ jbased on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property+ b% k9 l& C9 g' ~; i( @
benchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented4 w+ c% M' b1 B# _
including a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard* C7 @" [6 L/ V- T6 R2 @
condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.. }: L) r5 G; H, o$ t
For example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership# l' E: G6 ^" q
costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50! g: u, p2 M+ c
per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.: \: b9 B4 U, l
* @( ~# Z; w% U2 @: }. I, m <<9 l" I9 T1 {; E, h8 ~( F
Highlights from across Canada:( c! z: g+ P4 W
B3 e/ m; f- v. M6 ]
- Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has
- h( R' f: C" Q k intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing
! E1 f x. }1 C3 b4 ]3 \+ m/ b home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound+ b- {( W* A, ^+ I# {) {! C) D7 Z
only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track
- I K& w* z4 V J$ { since about the middle of 2007.5 G* w7 j- Y/ e7 T! _! S
- Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the& c; L7 k4 P* J$ X
frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to
7 u+ b: [6 L1 `7 V& E! V decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still
: A8 K! C' g* E5 w* o5 q$ _0 F largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely; Q$ e7 A% X0 Y. ]! |: A$ `
poor affordability levels.; Y; U+ x7 ]( g% \0 B
- Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the3 g2 y. v4 l3 a9 O7 e D7 l
vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and: u& ~9 [7 y( m' B
prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.
4 H0 i* ^+ R! m9 j8 L Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to& R/ ~" r7 T ]6 C6 ]1 \6 O
minimize any downside risks.( X: @- Y v+ _6 ^! C0 l
- Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market
3 c; s; e' g0 W conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is
0 V* T( g# j5 o$ p$ O. \# \# K- c unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early M1 J! x4 y+ Z
1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly! t* O1 p0 P- \. w# e: ]
being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.% v! Y/ x- Z5 R8 l& x$ W' ^; x5 t
- Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in
8 k# t% l5 ^3 g! C) O2 K Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus: P0 ^- A& o% k( P- b' `' c
far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up
7 f ^% D( A+ b8 a9 u' J6 Q reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be
8 a( |' p8 |! c ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only( U6 K, t( U# c: H3 X! w/ f, i6 u
modestly in recent years.* @- x' r% X4 o) w: d3 P8 D" E
- Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the* T8 y4 n/ N5 g# ^& ]0 k
general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot
, \8 f3 o4 P& ` spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward4 Y& P" b' E9 w3 @6 n8 c3 Z/ @5 T$ I- }
price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability
( c. I/ A& r+ D+ j7 M/ f/ B following two years of deterioration.$ s/ e4 z$ M& v% U: s
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