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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC
5 x" E2 l* T2 j TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the
4 @$ I' o7 E: T1 }! rmiddle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive, C0 T# C, z/ B/ b }
gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,
7 _: _- T# |" m9 F( ^5 haccording to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.
# l6 E& a8 @/ H p6 n9 r3 a "The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"
) y) p2 Y2 O8 {& t$ J- l, B: nsaid Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is, }. r/ w: k1 V2 @3 S
improving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability
( P- i* l% @2 Q0 ^2 t2 P% t8 ~* fmeasures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."
2 l+ ?2 J4 v, k" Y: a- M; L" e RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is6 g- |: @1 b# ~& k0 ^" t4 H/ o
worrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,, T' P7 S' f$ H! K4 Q! [
which runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have2 q; h& T6 ~' q7 \. k9 `. N5 V1 r
sustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.
. V& ~+ c' H6 t6 C The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the- n m* S- q1 O
proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a
. y) P2 X6 w) m% {8 n# ohome, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008." C, K; _+ d" l F
Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the2 d2 A; U# q$ `: W0 ~' q3 Q
standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and# A, [4 k+ b! x
the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.: a/ m( L( K- U. V: D
According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets/ ?, _5 p# [4 p
may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in
4 p$ _8 T$ O" x6 Q& |! P7 lthe closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at
5 [% A/ Y! C& O0 E$ k5 u1 U# mhistorically depressed levels.. z2 B' @1 v5 I7 l: a
Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost9 A+ s3 `( z; b5 x9 n- u
of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House
' N+ I6 S+ V6 ? w0 Oprices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the
6 P7 r& ]8 ^3 }% [hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This! N; ~( c+ X8 V0 X' N
enormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the- C4 Q4 `, u# @/ v. f+ V
months ahead," added Hogue.0 `% |% t& i% ~1 u* v$ K
RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest
2 g& ]2 d3 ~, n+ j6 m" Hcities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary: Q' V* @# S6 u: k; Q& M
42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.$ L) A1 x4 A# g9 M0 }" U$ D
The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for
% T, H( r# f6 L& j) Q+ ga broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these: Z6 Q1 Y* D$ G7 l: }' k$ F9 X
cities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only0 ^7 d! Z" g4 M$ T! \6 P& @
takes mortgage payments relative to income into account.
! h$ F/ C, G" t( i6 Y7 y- W# l3 v The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is4 _" }% ^# ^! y
based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property z$ F% Y' h. ]6 z/ \! t9 R
benchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented; x7 ]; n# {- C
including a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard
+ ^3 ?, y# K( A0 i3 |$ T9 Q. Fcondominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.+ }% n' r5 N4 R
For example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership
7 A- }" w: D. O* o3 @costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50" n; {, W ~- V: G! Q# j
per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.
8 z: j1 H% P, l3 P2 `) h
, k2 X* N) V7 ~7 u& I( o4 y <<$ v+ p6 |5 U x7 x+ ~+ K
Highlights from across Canada:- @* E% v" S& s& Y
+ Y7 u6 s: w4 j% j2 F
- Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has7 @) o1 I$ s4 c" k) T- ~% k
intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing6 d# _) Q) E3 H9 z9 C
home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound& d' H' `2 ]- t" n1 d: D) n* @: Q2 {
only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track# q: |$ q0 T- [2 I! |+ x, E# J1 T
since about the middle of 2007.
3 n' @. k; Y6 n1 `# I) m) N2 m' W6 O - Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the4 o1 ]! c1 [) G; G: a* Q+ f
frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to5 ^% X; o- Y, }6 Y
decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still0 r/ o5 B" o, \ O
largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely1 [/ L* r0 d& o
poor affordability levels.8 u3 y' H7 I$ k, V
- Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the
2 K$ ~7 g3 m5 r; O1 D vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and
# V' D2 B/ S! B- u$ o$ Y6 V prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.
. f1 j2 N: K% ?' V, T Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to
; c" Q( r; c# e6 B minimize any downside risks.
5 `$ V7 h5 Y5 A4 m8 n - Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market
, \' B2 j4 a( T0 W4 x. q- v7 g conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is
' _+ h/ Z' a; W( Y" \- M* B unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early! B% j# a/ E* C
1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly& |9 J9 s/ i/ X! K% a
being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.- n: C8 w8 ]' Y. p
- Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in8 S2 u2 e% I3 _9 P! c2 J
Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus! x- W! O; Y2 Z
far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up
+ s" X; K2 J6 j0 q: A3 |3 F reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be
) @: ` R& M' p2 z$ F ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only
6 a9 h) m: I5 V: l0 a* o modestly in recent years. F- f' j+ ~, U$ H+ R
- Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the
! b, v& T7 c6 e4 @5 h general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot
. ?" V# X! C3 c( C( E! z, S, L5 v spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward
2 M, i' t$ A$ o- R* e# U* v price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability; P, X( g. F4 I- _& H
following two years of deterioration.
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