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NEW HOUSING PRICE INDEX.../ c! V7 } a) s- U/ u7 f3 a* P
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: T) [% k, \1 i% {$ H1 e& ~The New Housing Price Index, has just been released and it provides some very" ]+ n1 b3 { {% F
interesting insights, not only into where the market has moved, but where it6 U$ l! b! J+ T6 |& E4 C
will be going.
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It proved, once again, the value of looking at fundamentals behind a market.
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The New Housing Price Index is compiled by Statistics Canada and is used by3 g+ b' n7 G' G# m( J
sophisticated investors to see how much the market has moved, as well as an
' b, A0 S# C6 o$ J2 E- kindicator of where re-sale home prices will be moving in the coming six months. # ?2 D" |1 ^& `
We look at the ripple effect that new housing prices have on re-sale property J$ z, R6 i' Q0 O7 q
values and can extrapolate what direction re-sale prices will be moving and by$ ?4 ~6 @9 y6 F
how much./ M' R6 l+ N9 @
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For instance, for the last three years, we have told investors to avoid Windsor,( U" H) F3 w- g
Ontario as an investment area because the underlying fundamentals are not very
( d) |/ E% `. B$ ~ j9 mstrong. This has been proven once again with the release of the latest& d. H5 Z- A& g% i E5 h+ r! K
findings. New Housing Prices have actually decreased by .5% during June 2005 - Q& {0 t! }/ @
June 2006 proving that fundamental investing works in helping you pick the best
9 z& {0 W2 @. _* S, a _1 _markets and avoid the flat ones. This .5% decrease should have little impact& b: E D% ~1 }" Y4 l8 _+ c
on average re-sale values in the Windsor region., p* |" C0 |- \
: Y/ ?# Z0 S2 W/ ETo contrast this, the fundamentals we discuss are so strong in Calgary that the
# s9 [6 `- }6 q! z- R5 E, s0 P4 _market continues to be super heated. With close to 3,000 net new people into9 [+ y7 [6 f9 j" ~
the city every month, the property market just can't keep up. That is why we& [8 G7 Q" h$ k, M5 z% v" \; b
saw the New Housing Price Index increase by 49.2% (June 2005 to June 2006). 9 E$ }$ C! y3 ` X- A4 [
This is great news for the future of re-sale values in the city as these
8 m, Y2 U) j# N% G- Vincreases will continue to ripple out into the market for at least the next six
+ o+ }8 m$ I% z' n9 {months.
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" i$ M7 w' H% w0 l7 A2 L* fComparing these two regions is a great illustration of the value of not getting2 T$ ^$ E; {0 y9 ?
caught in the 'emotional guessing game' by just focusing on the underlying1 X1 E& W3 A6 d- q$ _
fundamentals. It is sad to see those people who said in the last 2 years that9 D" {8 U" Q9 H% N; j( d3 U
the Alberta real estate market was over and they were going to sit back and wait
' w$ c) @+ F' ]3 y) Z$ g5 ?: l8 m- }until it drops. Quite obviously, they have missed out on AMAZING gains, all7 _4 K( P2 e# L; L+ s" o1 h4 a
because they didn't follow fundamentals, they just led with their emotions.
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% g1 ?4 V$ t) X: Q) v3 H1 \By the way, Edmonton's New Housing Price Index is up an amazing 28% so far (June9 ^3 U8 e7 R% T Q- r
2005 to June 2006), also great news.
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By comparison across the country, these are the numbers for June 2005 - June
, M. H, p7 o, H$ _8 d, l7 y: ^2006 New Housing Price Index for:
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% E3 a4 b2 m3 Q1 T# p! Y) e$ ^) nVancouver . . . . . . . . +5.2%
/ g- w4 P: B' o/ ?$ f7 v* DSaskatoon . . . . . . . . +8.5%' R8 n6 [' ]6 ?% o& x% K
London . . . . . . . . . . . +3.0%7 J& I9 L3 E' n2 U+ T& f7 m
Hamilton . . . . . . . . . . +4.9%) ^$ u( V6 b8 f& F- Z& N& \
St. Catharines - Niagara . . . . +4.9%/ s; o8 J/ z& [9 p- w
Toronto and Oshawa . . . . . . . +3.2' e- ^$ Q% g3 n* T- l2 u6 p
Ottawa - Gatineau . . . . . . . . . +3.1%+ X0 }* ]+ j0 I: \' d5 l
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Fundamental investing ALWAYS makes you look like a genius - emotional investing9 [5 ]: N* _0 g, {9 k
gives you quick highs, but also quick lows. Well done on your focus!6 ?4 e* L# d. r: I H% `
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As the fundamentals have been showing all along, the Alberta market continues to( y2 D8 Q' v1 h! h- T/ W
be strong, as in-migration and job creation continues to attract people from not
, {% ^. b& F" E* ?$ c: e; ^( B4 {only across Canada, but from around the world. Our average wages are
6 _* Z6 F/ V0 m* F1 l# s# J* qincreasing, our population is increasing, our unemployment rate continues to, t3 k! z9 K4 z: N! H% _
drop and our GDP growth is slated to once again lead the country.
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' I7 d; x/ d& \ ?4 Q. q6 zHere are some very interesting facts that are helping to support the strong
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( z; c0 J ^' v( e& R/ w/ F1. The Conference Board of Canada is forecasting strong economic growth in8 s, Y! x( g/ L/ u9 v( ?% P# u
Canada, with Alberta once again leading the way. In fact, the projected growth2 S+ n6 ^0 A+ B% y. T: ^% R
for Alberta's economy is a staggering 6.6%. (BC + 3.6%, Ontario + 2.5%), and' l5 E- }' {& @3 X+ C7 P
this is slated to occur even with the labour shortages we are witnessing.
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2. People are discovering Canada as an investment center from all over the
; E$ R) Y$ {" D* R) \1 rworld. Recently, there have been investors coming here from Asia, Australia,* `6 }5 s3 g7 T* o
the US, UK and Europe. In fact, if you review the world's press you will see" q6 H. b0 p# c
that Canada (with a focus on Alberta) is being discussed more frequently.
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3. Don Campbell has just returned from presenting our Canadian investment
% ~9 b) _- t" Yatmosphere (including Why Alberta - Why Now") to a group of major investors in
2 p# B3 x& E. |" M. F5 M! ^Dublin, Ireland, and the response was overwhelmingly positive. In fact, after5 A- T+ E* t( b- T9 i, H1 s
Don presented the economic facts, many of these investors (who could invest: c5 i r, k* B% C3 z' U9 Y9 R* D5 ?7 c
anywhere in the world) have already booked their flights to here. Once again6 m' J) E1 M, Q. R8 }
proving that when the true numbers of our economy are presented (along with the
2 R s( C) m: h7 D0 A* npolitical stability of our country), there is no place in the world that can
3 X- s) P+ h# R3 @* N) D) c2 vbeat it for long term investment.+ K8 Y1 p; r. ~, b
) {6 i! K3 v5 D; ~! m) ^3 i4. Job creation continues to be strong (with a small lull in June); definitely
; ^, I m% q$ F; O7 \- ka sign of strong long-term fundamentals. RBC has also been following the job
}% v+ j5 L( ]8 O2 f8 }- qcreation situation and here is what they are saying: (www.rbc.com/economics)
+ M- E% W& c1 R# [. Z1 v6 Q) @"After generating a substantial 96,700 jobs in May, the largest such gain since7 H# h: w" D4 P/ i4 n# ?
January 2002, the economy lost a modest 4,600 jobs in June... # A5 k% U5 O8 ` S
( C) K4 n* Z8 P5 b' eStrength in the Canadian economy contributed to a gain of 215,600 jobs in the7 V! c, P+ |: C
first half of 2006, a feat not matched since the second half of 2002. With the- t' ?( C8 m) K9 U& p! P$ F
economy widely expected to grow at a more moderate pace in the second half of9 f6 u. ~( R1 x4 z- S; Q+ w
the year on the back of slowing trade activity, this impressive showing may not
" \5 e0 w+ K/ z; Urepeat itself. We expect that employment grew in July at a pace consistent with5 _# {4 }4 w" ^7 A" z) n
its recent trend of 24,000 jobs a month. Assuming that the labour force grew at5 F: }( T, R' l( u; [0 X7 J
its trend rate, a gain of 24,000 jobs will lead to a national unemployment rate8 S- }0 ^, i$ z3 D, {
of 6.1%." Overall very good news. Now the key is to ensure that the region in
7 p) o) E) ]: nwhich you are investing is continuing to generate jobs and increasing incomes." D T. w" ^1 E: s$ _
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In other words, it is a great time to be taking advantage of this strong- Q3 D, w8 M4 L2 t; K& `9 y
economy, avoiding 'excuses' and to especially not listen to the uninformed
2 H1 e7 e$ j" p' {5 e" U'dream stealers.' As long as you stick with your game plan, you continue to do
, ^2 [5 u2 N9 C8 r" g" Y8 ~your due diligence, and you remove emotions from the equation, you will see the& ~: i5 r' |9 i' f4 n
opportunities that are right in front of you, right here in Alberta. Let the
$ {) Y# v, Q4 e' O# y'dream stealers' call you 'lucky' 5 years from now as your net worth has soared( a! \, W9 H8 N# O
and your financial freedom has surpassed even your wildest expectations.0 {% r+ U7 U2 {$ d
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Capital Gains Comparison.0 @% r% u8 j& ?' G# ^
8 k+ m1 Q+ g$ q# o- ]0 _8 |7 Z) @KPMG has recently released a comparison of the true Top Federal and Provincial
; I/ E3 J; G7 a! R5 i" r( |Marginal Capital Gains Tax Rates per province. It is very interesting to see, e, i2 p- X! \3 C! X
how these will affect your exit strategy. Here are the numbers:
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BC . . . . . . . . 21.9%
! T- c! R, D. F7 d9 f! R$ bAB . . . . . . . . 19.5%
9 K% I% J J& R3 xSK . . . . . . . . 22.0%
, I2 p0 }0 p" f _MB . . . . . . . . 23.2%0 l/ H# W% \$ E3 [' t& R6 @7 |
ON . . . . . . . . 23.2%
* j! Y* G2 j) \1 P. AQC . . . . . . . . 24.1%6 ~- Y* y( O8 ]
NB . . . . . . . . 23.4%& V) `; ]6 o' ]# x* M3 c
NS . . . . . . . . 24.1%# _2 \3 X; C! J, v) S4 T
PE . . . . . . . . 23.7%. l' C) a! l( m3 O
NF . . . . . . . . 24.3%1 I- P V1 f- K
5 }& \2 r' n d S, ZLower capital gains tax increases investment and stimulates the long term+ \) d9 O1 S: h* h0 Z8 A
economy of the province. It also allows real estate investors to keep more of$ H" C( f7 }, v
their profits at exit time. Always a good number to pay attention to.! T: v* ~2 F/ b% a, M* h8 _
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8 H. Q9 _3 t/ x; y# YOverall, by staying focused for the next short period of time, you have the
9 e$ s8 Y$ f+ ^1 I5 O2 q& qopportunity to create financial freedom of which others can only dream. Of. s- _4 i! O; `! ^% U% S8 t! X
course, the key word is focus. And with an August line-up of 'Members Only'
1 e% z% O: k! M7 y* X" V; aevents like this, you can't help to become a real estate investment champion0 E0 z$ @; R; J
when you take action as a full REIN Member.
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' r# y( X% X, B! Z% i2 P. T, ^Focus on the fundamentals, keep emotions out of your decisions, and enjoy the
& C+ V Z3 |, Z4 L1 [results in just a few short years. |
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发表于 2006-8-25 08:35
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