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NEW HOUSING PRICE INDEX...
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The New Housing Price Index, has just been released and it provides some very
; u! O q% ]8 X8 C, x* Vinteresting insights, not only into where the market has moved, but where it
5 A3 N* _) a& i# H: ?7 Q, C" bwill be going.6 D2 D+ I" x, b8 _1 Y, C
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It proved, once again, the value of looking at fundamentals behind a market.; e' l- r# Y7 _1 C' e6 w
" C- k9 h' O( u& y' X! W2 uThe New Housing Price Index is compiled by Statistics Canada and is used by
4 j, q, ^4 T% Z7 d5 l; p5 dsophisticated investors to see how much the market has moved, as well as an7 |& }) n E) q1 y3 ]! x
indicator of where re-sale home prices will be moving in the coming six months.
4 o( C; I7 [; j- h/ tWe look at the ripple effect that new housing prices have on re-sale property
; f0 s8 \8 R. ]( o: avalues and can extrapolate what direction re-sale prices will be moving and by% i+ e, X- q2 ^9 d, p* ?. l0 ^( d
how much.* P g; V* f" {6 p ?
& M, Y- m# K- o/ v; {" QFor instance, for the last three years, we have told investors to avoid Windsor,
9 C. I" L1 ^* R: |" yOntario as an investment area because the underlying fundamentals are not very
, V; J8 [9 z0 j) d8 H* m; G7 ^# S( kstrong. This has been proven once again with the release of the latest, I |2 X0 Y4 `4 ~, b' a
findings. New Housing Prices have actually decreased by .5% during June 2005 -
, T. W0 [9 v# v2 o1 D! |- ^# v. q; hJune 2006 proving that fundamental investing works in helping you pick the best$ Q1 A& V& e* ^ A. n
markets and avoid the flat ones. This .5% decrease should have little impact
z/ _7 i$ e2 Q) Z8 Ton average re-sale values in the Windsor region.
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To contrast this, the fundamentals we discuss are so strong in Calgary that the
! m! V! x1 W. o* A9 w4 N2 @) `market continues to be super heated. With close to 3,000 net new people into
0 U( `$ ~* }, {% D/ `4 s+ U+ Cthe city every month, the property market just can't keep up. That is why we
2 X- D V! W# z7 [8 w5 I' L# a! y1 \- W& n. \saw the New Housing Price Index increase by 49.2% (June 2005 to June 2006). & Q8 U+ q. H9 x0 i' C5 V
This is great news for the future of re-sale values in the city as these
" H0 ]8 Y: }3 h4 Bincreases will continue to ripple out into the market for at least the next six
' ]7 V7 I" Q' _' {1 c$ u% c- o3 }months. ( S4 @* l- `) m0 F
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Comparing these two regions is a great illustration of the value of not getting
+ C @% }# [. b n2 Gcaught in the 'emotional guessing game' by just focusing on the underlying
7 Y# E( A' w/ R. O9 Jfundamentals. It is sad to see those people who said in the last 2 years that
* v! Y- Y+ H3 R+ _the Alberta real estate market was over and they were going to sit back and wait0 J) @: f z' p8 C! y6 O
until it drops. Quite obviously, they have missed out on AMAZING gains, all
- ]) T. Z3 p( ^. j4 C3 C( M' v5 vbecause they didn't follow fundamentals, they just led with their emotions.
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7 w* |: T; w5 g( q1 FBy the way, Edmonton's New Housing Price Index is up an amazing 28% so far (June
1 P9 _. [6 Q$ g! t2005 to June 2006), also great news.
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By comparison across the country, these are the numbers for June 2005 - June1 ? Y2 v& r$ J6 J6 P" b* d9 x8 S) O3 I
2006 New Housing Price Index for:/ ^# k: l5 t8 l# I
6 l$ C I* ~5 r4 ~0 J! QVancouver . . . . . . . . +5.2% I0 z! W- U! |, Q/ E
Saskatoon . . . . . . . . +8.5%- T) S4 _' M7 p8 K3 ?, ?2 E* t
London . . . . . . . . . . . +3.0%6 [- w/ A2 [$ g7 y# H- b
Hamilton . . . . . . . . . . +4.9%
1 E9 @6 c+ C+ W+ T: L1 FSt. Catharines - Niagara . . . . +4.9%
o7 {6 d* C. b& I7 d S0 T9 k8 pToronto and Oshawa . . . . . . . +3.2
. ]! p; J* l# oOttawa - Gatineau . . . . . . . . . +3.1%
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Fundamental investing ALWAYS makes you look like a genius - emotional investing
5 m8 ~! S# |. O% Ggives you quick highs, but also quick lows. Well done on your focus!/ _- g1 Y. q. @/ _" Z" f5 p# B( \
4 A) A, e+ O0 I) qAs the fundamentals have been showing all along, the Alberta market continues to
1 H! {& K3 c$ @) cbe strong, as in-migration and job creation continues to attract people from not
- @, |/ y2 Z" J. \# Honly across Canada, but from around the world. Our average wages are
, j1 w7 F6 k( g3 ~& K) Aincreasing, our population is increasing, our unemployment rate continues to5 x* }% Y0 q* L! z
drop and our GDP growth is slated to once again lead the country.3 `- ~% R6 b' a1 U0 I
. }: E0 u w( EHere are some very interesting facts that are helping to support the strong
: y: W" s+ q |1 tfundamentals:
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0 r' L3 r2 D! B+ u M9 m1. The Conference Board of Canada is forecasting strong economic growth in
8 ?! @ {; f- H2 Y# NCanada, with Alberta once again leading the way. In fact, the projected growth
. Q3 [; I4 k+ h; Zfor Alberta's economy is a staggering 6.6%. (BC + 3.6%, Ontario + 2.5%), and
, }* Q* R2 r5 D0 {this is slated to occur even with the labour shortages we are witnessing.5 H+ W+ S5 y4 U
# n! W4 y; K9 w9 ]) h9 U' l% o9 N2. People are discovering Canada as an investment center from all over the5 W7 _! d5 L9 I; _2 ~' W9 Y
world. Recently, there have been investors coming here from Asia, Australia,
& `# g% y3 H% S- T" M3 o* o5 ?2 tthe US, UK and Europe. In fact, if you review the world's press you will see
$ }8 _: x3 f- R; W) B# [4 {3 h- @1 F. Pthat Canada (with a focus on Alberta) is being discussed more frequently.
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$ w$ V; U5 m9 V' S6 P7 r& Q: O$ Y3. Don Campbell has just returned from presenting our Canadian investment
_5 m) P. V! {6 b: d% v' Watmosphere (including Why Alberta - Why Now") to a group of major investors in
6 r* B7 X3 w: k% S7 T1 U* \# \Dublin, Ireland, and the response was overwhelmingly positive. In fact, after
0 v( ], g9 s1 F7 C/ ]2 O6 Y9 b8 q5 u& zDon presented the economic facts, many of these investors (who could invest( N- F' A7 L) p$ R, \1 D
anywhere in the world) have already booked their flights to here. Once again( ?. s. P3 ]% Q7 P2 x" m; D$ L
proving that when the true numbers of our economy are presented (along with the
[! E1 s* i+ {4 D) q' S. Ppolitical stability of our country), there is no place in the world that can
* V0 ~5 l B) ^4 Q: qbeat it for long term investment.
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4. Job creation continues to be strong (with a small lull in June); definitely& E: M6 e" e& [, b0 Z) t3 F
a sign of strong long-term fundamentals. RBC has also been following the job* [) C' G# z& Q! v# u0 Y
creation situation and here is what they are saying: (www.rbc.com/economics)8 i5 C- U8 ~8 Z- ~2 ]6 Y
"After generating a substantial 96,700 jobs in May, the largest such gain since
8 A+ z4 P, y7 h5 {$ MJanuary 2002, the economy lost a modest 4,600 jobs in June... 6 o1 y3 D6 f& s' j
# L. n1 C8 |) t4 ^Strength in the Canadian economy contributed to a gain of 215,600 jobs in the
# X, c+ T2 `) i8 \$ O3 Y. D' Qfirst half of 2006, a feat not matched since the second half of 2002. With the
, `( p7 f% N! l5 f) j- {" }economy widely expected to grow at a more moderate pace in the second half of. s" x7 v8 c. U
the year on the back of slowing trade activity, this impressive showing may not
* {% a1 k7 J/ L6 J9 n: _/ y8 Z v" Srepeat itself. We expect that employment grew in July at a pace consistent with
+ H, v# H: a4 yits recent trend of 24,000 jobs a month. Assuming that the labour force grew at4 w5 t ]" R1 v7 Y7 }
its trend rate, a gain of 24,000 jobs will lead to a national unemployment rate5 x9 _ f# W$ s* m
of 6.1%." Overall very good news. Now the key is to ensure that the region in
. |, \$ G! B! y0 _, A/ Rwhich you are investing is continuing to generate jobs and increasing incomes.
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2 U0 r1 l7 h' x4 Q0 w% aIn other words, it is a great time to be taking advantage of this strong# x9 y$ A- {, D2 Z, G0 M0 i/ m
economy, avoiding 'excuses' and to especially not listen to the uninformed
% y7 F" N" e: \2 L( \: g'dream stealers.' As long as you stick with your game plan, you continue to do
8 z5 e3 L% O: g& |your due diligence, and you remove emotions from the equation, you will see the0 O+ \( Y& T. C* t) A2 k9 ]
opportunities that are right in front of you, right here in Alberta. Let the
6 j& X- H3 W! }) V' T; K6 i1 N'dream stealers' call you 'lucky' 5 years from now as your net worth has soared7 \' f* C% W' G- u* h# U! B k, U
and your financial freedom has surpassed even your wildest expectations.0 o+ j% R) v% ]: P+ P9 F, p# X
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# P7 \; [& G2 [4 j9 S# Y" dCapital Gains Comparison.
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KPMG has recently released a comparison of the true Top Federal and Provincial3 ~1 d1 ^6 O5 _1 _
Marginal Capital Gains Tax Rates per province. It is very interesting to see; W: w* b( E' H# g- ] n
how these will affect your exit strategy. Here are the numbers:
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BC . . . . . . . . 21.9%
2 p' u8 d |6 [% w. d5 W* vAB . . . . . . . . 19.5%1 Q6 S3 L9 P8 v% A2 `+ l! L9 f
SK . . . . . . . . 22.0%2 [9 n3 i2 q* W n
MB . . . . . . . . 23.2%
2 C {( f* ~5 P( e! z! P( n1 TON . . . . . . . . 23.2%
, z4 s3 Y1 ]% D' G0 H0 r2 w3 HQC . . . . . . . . 24.1%- p1 N& t. t) Z+ V0 K4 V3 j
NB . . . . . . . . 23.4%
( B0 o! V) ?9 s* i9 tNS . . . . . . . . 24.1% o2 t% A3 U0 r8 x; j
PE . . . . . . . . 23.7%
, S& N3 E- V8 nNF . . . . . . . . 24.3%6 y9 i# |6 c! S1 N- r
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Lower capital gains tax increases investment and stimulates the long term0 K7 z6 A7 n N
economy of the province. It also allows real estate investors to keep more of
5 L, s9 o! _; R7 wtheir profits at exit time. Always a good number to pay attention to.
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& X, N- P4 ] w& f0 tOverall, by staying focused for the next short period of time, you have the
+ t! ~: F( s) T3 L& Xopportunity to create financial freedom of which others can only dream. Of
$ o2 G1 [9 Q! B. U& a- [course, the key word is focus. And with an August line-up of 'Members Only'0 Z- I/ @& O3 K" }% j6 T/ S" k
events like this, you can't help to become a real estate investment champion% _, K# h$ t# d1 `6 d
when you take action as a full REIN Member.
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Focus on the fundamentals, keep emotions out of your decisions, and enjoy the
& e! \3 s; z: H1 i$ S% n' O+ uresults in just a few short years. |
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发表于 2006-8-25 08:35
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