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NEW HOUSING PRICE INDEX...
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5 f m/ f+ a4 k8 e, R' P0 `9 h. \The New Housing Price Index, has just been released and it provides some very( e, z% E; n4 _9 @
interesting insights, not only into where the market has moved, but where it" b r% o2 L- f( e' m4 }: G
will be going.& ~) K- H! G3 Y8 H# s
0 Z/ K, C9 O- ]3 QIt proved, once again, the value of looking at fundamentals behind a market., e6 T0 L, O! g0 Y
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The New Housing Price Index is compiled by Statistics Canada and is used by
6 w7 {% @/ ?$ p1 c0 Z" Tsophisticated investors to see how much the market has moved, as well as an
. _+ {" _9 t& C% lindicator of where re-sale home prices will be moving in the coming six months. % b/ v( D q5 q! g7 [
We look at the ripple effect that new housing prices have on re-sale property' V) T6 O# C) m
values and can extrapolate what direction re-sale prices will be moving and by
& y6 E P* `$ z4 k Dhow much.
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- z$ }3 @' Q0 uFor instance, for the last three years, we have told investors to avoid Windsor,
; }7 V3 u' E5 G, X! U; tOntario as an investment area because the underlying fundamentals are not very
& u8 H" P P8 V4 R- y* Ostrong. This has been proven once again with the release of the latest5 _1 I& g' C' r
findings. New Housing Prices have actually decreased by .5% during June 2005 -
4 a4 v# H" N9 W9 \- m0 {; rJune 2006 proving that fundamental investing works in helping you pick the best. O& ]/ I- u* y) b- s
markets and avoid the flat ones. This .5% decrease should have little impact
+ e9 L9 p/ J1 `" Z: n( ron average re-sale values in the Windsor region.
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8 e' y2 F1 ^2 {( rTo contrast this, the fundamentals we discuss are so strong in Calgary that the
- L g: g: i& N6 s+ V. ~! A" Fmarket continues to be super heated. With close to 3,000 net new people into
! y: W; G' [( J1 `- vthe city every month, the property market just can't keep up. That is why we
, U. v2 C1 M# T" I8 k7 w* msaw the New Housing Price Index increase by 49.2% (June 2005 to June 2006). / Q/ S/ z/ E3 M
This is great news for the future of re-sale values in the city as these: r0 z" M' A4 J5 ^' E: l! O3 b
increases will continue to ripple out into the market for at least the next six
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Comparing these two regions is a great illustration of the value of not getting
* ]& R& p$ h* M# scaught in the 'emotional guessing game' by just focusing on the underlying
6 y. g* y3 U+ b9 {fundamentals. It is sad to see those people who said in the last 2 years that
+ J1 ?# m+ h" t6 T% Rthe Alberta real estate market was over and they were going to sit back and wait: u6 a' G0 \. E! y+ o, d! Q8 x1 ^
until it drops. Quite obviously, they have missed out on AMAZING gains, all* c- J% ]7 N u" y
because they didn't follow fundamentals, they just led with their emotions.- \+ \% a% f0 O8 j
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By the way, Edmonton's New Housing Price Index is up an amazing 28% so far (June W* i& @! ^/ N9 ~, q8 I3 B, A; @
2005 to June 2006), also great news.
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By comparison across the country, these are the numbers for June 2005 - June3 X1 \5 R% w3 I' }: i# J
2006 New Housing Price Index for:' X1 C! g8 @5 {. W; o* _
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Vancouver . . . . . . . . +5.2%( P$ V* G% U- P, g
Saskatoon . . . . . . . . +8.5%" s2 y) j: x( o+ A! Z
London . . . . . . . . . . . +3.0%. T+ n2 |. G) \: |
Hamilton . . . . . . . . . . +4.9%
$ W; J6 s$ @ g& M! M! K" pSt. Catharines - Niagara . . . . +4.9%
0 Z }/ \. O6 ?$ \3 Y) z2 k. aToronto and Oshawa . . . . . . . +3.2
# {' ~5 _4 t# F6 p# zOttawa - Gatineau . . . . . . . . . +3.1% {; l4 W+ p- z' Y r0 `+ a2 J$ p8 H- t
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Fundamental investing ALWAYS makes you look like a genius - emotional investing, E9 ^9 o% h+ _; q2 t* B
gives you quick highs, but also quick lows. Well done on your focus!$ u) A: \6 w8 H+ C7 S! T
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As the fundamentals have been showing all along, the Alberta market continues to
5 z! q, S5 ~. U9 z/ }be strong, as in-migration and job creation continues to attract people from not
( T2 x$ Z+ R# i; tonly across Canada, but from around the world. Our average wages are9 P- }, h& h& c) N
increasing, our population is increasing, our unemployment rate continues to
/ e5 q6 Y0 Y3 K) J, Tdrop and our GDP growth is slated to once again lead the country.8 ~9 Z v& O; f. n6 N t1 p
2 ~. k0 B- o6 U# C7 J$ F2 xHere are some very interesting facts that are helping to support the strong
2 q, D k9 F" u2 B0 p r- efundamentals:
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1. The Conference Board of Canada is forecasting strong economic growth in
' \8 n- Z$ t: K5 R8 OCanada, with Alberta once again leading the way. In fact, the projected growth
; x5 @7 {2 `4 X: ^for Alberta's economy is a staggering 6.6%. (BC + 3.6%, Ontario + 2.5%), and
& O* l0 s: B% T( {# o6 |this is slated to occur even with the labour shortages we are witnessing.
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/ W; |; J+ [7 s3 q) i0 D2. People are discovering Canada as an investment center from all over the
$ n6 K. ~- K t; ^, j4 Uworld. Recently, there have been investors coming here from Asia, Australia,6 K( k" K5 k K' ^, e- ]/ e& b( M
the US, UK and Europe. In fact, if you review the world's press you will see
* |; I5 _+ s# X* U1 ]that Canada (with a focus on Alberta) is being discussed more frequently. ) t& c1 D" ]8 G" G& J2 e
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3. Don Campbell has just returned from presenting our Canadian investment( H. x( ~9 S4 Z3 e J" Z/ A
atmosphere (including Why Alberta - Why Now") to a group of major investors in; l& u0 @# K7 V* O2 h! ~# V
Dublin, Ireland, and the response was overwhelmingly positive. In fact, after1 `) e! t' ?6 i8 s2 J+ S8 \) x
Don presented the economic facts, many of these investors (who could invest
1 s, V' O$ q! e0 ]/ b6 {2 fanywhere in the world) have already booked their flights to here. Once again
7 d9 w+ P& [* @! w4 j( i9 R( _proving that when the true numbers of our economy are presented (along with the
9 r! g1 X6 P# c9 Dpolitical stability of our country), there is no place in the world that can% W3 F/ `; n- I% v4 J
beat it for long term investment.6 j& W8 X& r: j6 t" C6 y; F1 v# ~
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4. Job creation continues to be strong (with a small lull in June); definitely- H% Y9 d2 }, S" F* c, s& _
a sign of strong long-term fundamentals. RBC has also been following the job* }1 x- W x* G1 e1 o& r( c- y" W; [- C
creation situation and here is what they are saying: (www.rbc.com/economics)
. M3 ]8 @: H1 ~4 ]1 J"After generating a substantial 96,700 jobs in May, the largest such gain since
& l4 N! n! B2 s) ^1 E6 H+ KJanuary 2002, the economy lost a modest 4,600 jobs in June... : d: _& g4 E, M F* H
6 U' G7 k- ^8 BStrength in the Canadian economy contributed to a gain of 215,600 jobs in the1 Y; e* b+ C5 _' K
first half of 2006, a feat not matched since the second half of 2002. With the
% `3 t' r: z eeconomy widely expected to grow at a more moderate pace in the second half of
) C0 U" a# a, c% n7 v1 A* h! r3 G; Othe year on the back of slowing trade activity, this impressive showing may not9 `% n! H) k i7 b6 K
repeat itself. We expect that employment grew in July at a pace consistent with
1 Q& K: h7 ~7 {: o. Z( t( Vits recent trend of 24,000 jobs a month. Assuming that the labour force grew at
& h6 T5 ?' x! v+ Z/ b. iits trend rate, a gain of 24,000 jobs will lead to a national unemployment rate+ z& r$ L6 L! Z' ]* K8 v1 `
of 6.1%." Overall very good news. Now the key is to ensure that the region in
& z7 c( i5 r. t. J. f4 l9 Xwhich you are investing is continuing to generate jobs and increasing incomes.
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In other words, it is a great time to be taking advantage of this strong' ~* c0 b- {8 c# m% J8 n
economy, avoiding 'excuses' and to especially not listen to the uninformed
% O+ q6 W( f3 F: @: X'dream stealers.' As long as you stick with your game plan, you continue to do
4 F0 \# R3 b! C2 k4 Yyour due diligence, and you remove emotions from the equation, you will see the) @9 y2 F. @( l$ |6 ]+ j
opportunities that are right in front of you, right here in Alberta. Let the
/ n3 n* }7 Y) `' q% y5 f, ~/ v- r'dream stealers' call you 'lucky' 5 years from now as your net worth has soared+ E7 A) O) B3 g, B6 z
and your financial freedom has surpassed even your wildest expectations./ @+ C) l$ s/ T" V* _
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! t# ?) ?7 k. d- s- F' l2 r6 |Capital Gains Comparison.. h. J( z; o' T/ A
4 S% r8 i6 Q+ C4 [0 w# CKPMG has recently released a comparison of the true Top Federal and Provincial
- G$ {. }+ e3 `Marginal Capital Gains Tax Rates per province. It is very interesting to see
" P' [1 G. I1 W: x2 x8 j2 w# ehow these will affect your exit strategy. Here are the numbers:1 p; y! w3 q9 b6 f: A. P3 R
, m! z+ p' Y; [0 ]; X' p. ZBC . . . . . . . . 21.9%
C* J2 ^5 W S& M7 gAB . . . . . . . . 19.5%& j9 @4 K; t6 g, n/ V4 V, U' T
SK . . . . . . . . 22.0%
2 c$ V( x) z' b! f1 l3 f% H wMB . . . . . . . . 23.2%
+ \2 ^# s3 d) k; m" _ ]5 E. ^' b: ?ON . . . . . . . . 23.2%
# ]0 I9 X& V0 Z7 oQC . . . . . . . . 24.1%
, z& M$ O6 `) C; ZNB . . . . . . . . 23.4% z) G8 J' e9 ?+ Y+ K$ J4 c o2 z
NS . . . . . . . . 24.1%
a# a7 H( a$ S" e8 m6 y. z! vPE . . . . . . . . 23.7%+ L$ {: c! R+ p6 D" _. S5 h
NF . . . . . . . . 24.3%; d6 j [3 f# N+ y
, {3 p% I" p, T* X4 u- VLower capital gains tax increases investment and stimulates the long term
2 Z) n- Y( A% ]+ I7 aeconomy of the province. It also allows real estate investors to keep more of
3 ?% C: |/ \1 R+ S1 k, Itheir profits at exit time. Always a good number to pay attention to.! n4 E, ~( }+ s4 i1 b. y
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Overall, by staying focused for the next short period of time, you have the' V/ S; u& k* c9 D& E* T+ Q
opportunity to create financial freedom of which others can only dream. Of
; n' u( x4 |# scourse, the key word is focus. And with an August line-up of 'Members Only'
* D5 l* m$ K/ p" m) a" a0 V5 J0 [events like this, you can't help to become a real estate investment champion4 M" ?. l" q$ J' L3 ^$ v- A. u
when you take action as a full REIN Member.* M; { z/ |8 z5 O. y& }. y
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Focus on the fundamentals, keep emotions out of your decisions, and enjoy the
: f1 O8 t+ d. A& c# t* U* ?results in just a few short years. |
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发表于 2006-8-25 08:35
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