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Thu January 11, 2007 www.edmontonsun.com4 n. f! A$ {" ?5 j7 v; s1 k
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7 m- p5 Z/ u# C. m7 ]+ J# T1 I In Tomorrow's PaperGet the latest Oilers news every day in Sports. Or check our Oilers homepage here.8 d* L, i* T/ P) \
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Thu, January 11, 20078 T6 z2 s% h3 ^ K1 e, ?5 I, X
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Price is still rightEdmonton Real Estate Board president expects a 15% climb in 2007
4 v2 G, z! |2 V6 E& A2 C6 Y3 h J7 qBy NEIL WAUGH, EDMONTON SUN
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They're changing the guard down at the Edmonton real estate palace.
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& f6 V$ c. h7 `5 l8 e& zMadeline Sarafinchan is out. Carolyn Pratt is taking over the Edmonton Real Estate Board president's gavel - the kind of blunt instrument that some realtors, I suspect, would like to use on ComFree Edmonton upstart Travis Holowach. More on that later. " ?; S5 C& [/ H- \
& r- ~# J+ d1 P9 BBut first, the EREB president's bold predictions and fearless forecasts.
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( Q' V, M& ?' `! ?, R4 PDon't expect a repeat of last year's housing boom where condo and single family dwelling prices spiked an incredible 52%. Pratt is now calling for a more modest increase of 15%. 4 X" _0 F7 j+ s. n: k: Z# o
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"We feel the increase will come because there will be continued demand, consumer confidence, a very robust economy and low interest rates," Pratt whooped at the EREB's New Year's kick-off conference at the Westin. "All the factors are there for another terrific year." 8 H; W4 L* c# Y; O
5 u1 T; V* ]0 h) k3 c2 T; f5 V9 KShe predicted that the total number of residential sales isn't expected to increase in 2007 - despite thousands of pot-of-gold seekers still flocking to the capital region from across the country as Ontario continues to sputter.
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2 Y+ O: ]0 p: X, h"There just won't be enough houses to sell," she sighed.
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h' ?" l5 I, n ?3 q, D# C2 j/ |Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation senior analyst Richard Goatcher was also talking a good-news-bad-news scenario at the board meeting.
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3 Y9 A: B; {( O1 Z6 Z5 [& K"The big issue is, are we going to see continued in-migration into the city with the volumes we had last year?" Goatcher said. His expectation is "somewhat less."
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4 C P9 p: d" V0 uStill, total new-house starts will be "fairly similar" to last year's pace. 2006 turned out to be a record year. So was 2005. But Goatcher is predicting a 5% decrease in house starts. - y9 C4 r7 s$ x
. P3 X+ Z" s% [8 g"A lot of it is due to capacity issues," he said. Developers are running out of serviced lots in some areas. Some homebuilders "got a little overstretched" during last year's house-building frenzy.
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"There are too many shortages in the system," he shrugged.
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" u7 J0 M7 b" [% P"But it's still going to be very, very strong," he quickly added, with the average new-home selling price ramping up by 20%. 8 h( y% B; l, C- H1 m
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3 L( l7 P" B+ G4 U; ?' V& M; V- bHe also doesn't see a repeat of the 2006 price boom in the resale market, which he described as "unsustainable." / u5 K7 ?4 H2 c6 a% _
9 v0 c% Y* d. e+ r6 e% v# KExpect a more gentle 10% increase - mainly because many potential buyers are now being priced out of the market - even with zero down payment and 40-year mortgages.
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6 m: U$ q: V" h6 s/ G$ j9 BOver at ComFree Edmonton, president Travis Holowach was also celebrating what he described as a "steaming red hot" real estate market, and another "record-setting" year for his commission-free real estate service.
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0 f( w, Y; h/ W0 h8 r$ o# ?* Y- fHis 2006 wind-up report shows 4,375 total sales and 5,721 new listings, up 74% from 2005 - clearly sucking up a lot of the inventory that would otherwise have gone to an EREB realtor.
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8 D" m/ F9 J% ?4 C/ m"Our growing presence in the marketplace is having a strong impact on the competition," Holowach winked.
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2 s) m( e8 k8 ]! y, E9 HSo strong that the Alberta Real Estate Association launched a complaint with Alberta Government Services claiming ComFree was bending the truth about its market share. 3 b: [! J3 W9 S& o B0 N4 o- O7 o% o
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Yesterday ComFree was still claiming 30% share of the residential market. And "commissions saved" of $82 million from his sell-it-yourself operation. Which, of course, is what the battle is really all about. : J0 E: z- W7 R4 |" M/ E
* e; y" f) _ O/ {0 q9 I"We do 95% of the sales in the real estate market," Pratt countered.
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Let the good times roll. ; X5 n$ Z# |( c3 N0 E8 r V( M
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Previous story: Bottom Line
$ ?' K9 w0 E! _6 P' w6 W' aNext story: Building permits hit record
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