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# i9 S Q) o0 y1 f* qThu, January 11, 2007
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Price is still rightEdmonton Real Estate Board president expects a 15% climb in 2007; l! E7 h* y- X: V: v% N9 P
By NEIL WAUGH, EDMONTON SUN/ ?% J0 Y' G1 w V/ W
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They're changing the guard down at the Edmonton real estate palace. 0 D3 z7 B) \) K" _1 P: U! |
4 H% N! s: H& _0 F2 `* lMadeline Sarafinchan is out. Carolyn Pratt is taking over the Edmonton Real Estate Board president's gavel - the kind of blunt instrument that some realtors, I suspect, would like to use on ComFree Edmonton upstart Travis Holowach. More on that later.
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But first, the EREB president's bold predictions and fearless forecasts. $ p5 ]1 r; n$ S) Z( H+ |' j3 L
`0 e- o( U+ xDon't expect a repeat of last year's housing boom where condo and single family dwelling prices spiked an incredible 52%. Pratt is now calling for a more modest increase of 15%.
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7 `# R" x9 p' E& `# ^1 j"We feel the increase will come because there will be continued demand, consumer confidence, a very robust economy and low interest rates," Pratt whooped at the EREB's New Year's kick-off conference at the Westin. "All the factors are there for another terrific year."
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) `$ a% K* |! e% ?7 S7 S- ~: kShe predicted that the total number of residential sales isn't expected to increase in 2007 - despite thousands of pot-of-gold seekers still flocking to the capital region from across the country as Ontario continues to sputter.
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"There just won't be enough houses to sell," she sighed. " ]1 @, o" s9 b+ q+ t
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Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation senior analyst Richard Goatcher was also talking a good-news-bad-news scenario at the board meeting. . l2 {' q: I" k. z: R. v$ o3 M
* N5 X8 S$ D6 x7 m; x4 H( n& ^"The big issue is, are we going to see continued in-migration into the city with the volumes we had last year?" Goatcher said. His expectation is "somewhat less." . Z: \; h. D) E ^) W
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Still, total new-house starts will be "fairly similar" to last year's pace. 2006 turned out to be a record year. So was 2005. But Goatcher is predicting a 5% decrease in house starts.
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1 N) [" W4 j8 j, C( G( B: ["A lot of it is due to capacity issues," he said. Developers are running out of serviced lots in some areas. Some homebuilders "got a little overstretched" during last year's house-building frenzy.
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, F8 t2 l' t0 h3 A) b8 p"There are too many shortages in the system," he shrugged.
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"But it's still going to be very, very strong," he quickly added, with the average new-home selling price ramping up by 20%.
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NO PRICE BOOM REPEAT
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He also doesn't see a repeat of the 2006 price boom in the resale market, which he described as "unsustainable." ! P6 E, o( `2 P
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Expect a more gentle 10% increase - mainly because many potential buyers are now being priced out of the market - even with zero down payment and 40-year mortgages.
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' M( O0 o8 F: r- d1 m% OOver at ComFree Edmonton, president Travis Holowach was also celebrating what he described as a "steaming red hot" real estate market, and another "record-setting" year for his commission-free real estate service.
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His 2006 wind-up report shows 4,375 total sales and 5,721 new listings, up 74% from 2005 - clearly sucking up a lot of the inventory that would otherwise have gone to an EREB realtor.
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+ Y8 u9 ^% t# X3 ?) D, Q"Our growing presence in the marketplace is having a strong impact on the competition," Holowach winked. ) R) X- w! }0 f2 B
' o; @, M$ I( H( P6 e" X& uSo strong that the Alberta Real Estate Association launched a complaint with Alberta Government Services claiming ComFree was bending the truth about its market share. % M' C6 H, I0 l! C5 f
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Yesterday ComFree was still claiming 30% share of the residential market. And "commissions saved" of $82 million from his sell-it-yourself operation. Which, of course, is what the battle is really all about.
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6 G) {- k! r/ d"We do 95% of the sales in the real estate market," Pratt countered.
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Let the good times roll. 4 I: _7 }6 ^6 Y U
' {$ ]) Q) S- Q% TPrevious story: Bottom Line' A% q |9 f3 s) B {' x1 [
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