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Thu January 11, 2007 www.edmontonsun.com' N; ?: C7 j G) l' K0 i
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In Tomorrow's PaperGet the latest Oilers news every day in Sports. Or check our Oilers homepage here.
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Thu, January 11, 2007* F0 h1 A! ]0 t$ y5 \
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Price is still rightEdmonton Real Estate Board president expects a 15% climb in 2007) D6 k/ f$ _; q2 n9 N% p& X
By NEIL WAUGH, EDMONTON SUN0 H1 e' L% E8 b
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$ [" ^& M) r* H7 h( _8 ZThey're changing the guard down at the Edmonton real estate palace. 5 T, c: j" N% [/ ~1 [. {- {
X7 e3 e# \) N( b8 C8 RMadeline Sarafinchan is out. Carolyn Pratt is taking over the Edmonton Real Estate Board president's gavel - the kind of blunt instrument that some realtors, I suspect, would like to use on ComFree Edmonton upstart Travis Holowach. More on that later.
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/ p$ p0 v0 C+ u) W( d) Z' o7 z: JBut first, the EREB president's bold predictions and fearless forecasts.
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3 h# u Q2 H* O0 @) ^( Y( K& j8 cDon't expect a repeat of last year's housing boom where condo and single family dwelling prices spiked an incredible 52%. Pratt is now calling for a more modest increase of 15%. + Z6 ^; t# V+ l/ a& H8 S/ o* y6 A5 _
) j1 S( L6 j' S* i' Q! L: K'CONTINUED DEMAND'
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"We feel the increase will come because there will be continued demand, consumer confidence, a very robust economy and low interest rates," Pratt whooped at the EREB's New Year's kick-off conference at the Westin. "All the factors are there for another terrific year."
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She predicted that the total number of residential sales isn't expected to increase in 2007 - despite thousands of pot-of-gold seekers still flocking to the capital region from across the country as Ontario continues to sputter.
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"There just won't be enough houses to sell," she sighed. 6 G. f; g% a- }& N- O
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Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation senior analyst Richard Goatcher was also talking a good-news-bad-news scenario at the board meeting.
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/ v3 ^8 }* _1 {! o"The big issue is, are we going to see continued in-migration into the city with the volumes we had last year?" Goatcher said. His expectation is "somewhat less."
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3 a% f3 P1 C' H. a8 T* e/ BStill, total new-house starts will be "fairly similar" to last year's pace. 2006 turned out to be a record year. So was 2005. But Goatcher is predicting a 5% decrease in house starts.
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"A lot of it is due to capacity issues," he said. Developers are running out of serviced lots in some areas. Some homebuilders "got a little overstretched" during last year's house-building frenzy. 3 v7 X1 |- A6 @9 J7 B9 O
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"There are too many shortages in the system," he shrugged.
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"But it's still going to be very, very strong," he quickly added, with the average new-home selling price ramping up by 20%. 5 L1 ~# J" L# P5 {9 L
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NO PRICE BOOM REPEAT
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He also doesn't see a repeat of the 2006 price boom in the resale market, which he described as "unsustainable." 6 w6 w) `7 Z# w$ Z, A Z
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Expect a more gentle 10% increase - mainly because many potential buyers are now being priced out of the market - even with zero down payment and 40-year mortgages.
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`( |" b+ _$ {1 ?Over at ComFree Edmonton, president Travis Holowach was also celebrating what he described as a "steaming red hot" real estate market, and another "record-setting" year for his commission-free real estate service.
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: e. r1 u* L+ h' X* CHis 2006 wind-up report shows 4,375 total sales and 5,721 new listings, up 74% from 2005 - clearly sucking up a lot of the inventory that would otherwise have gone to an EREB realtor.
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"Our growing presence in the marketplace is having a strong impact on the competition," Holowach winked.
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So strong that the Alberta Real Estate Association launched a complaint with Alberta Government Services claiming ComFree was bending the truth about its market share.
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Yesterday ComFree was still claiming 30% share of the residential market. And "commissions saved" of $82 million from his sell-it-yourself operation. Which, of course, is what the battle is really all about.
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"We do 95% of the sales in the real estate market," Pratt countered. , V5 @- p5 c+ B7 I. E( C* M
" b* {: {4 L9 K8 @9 vLet the good times roll.
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, t k3 U Z! p) V+ f/ \/ HPrevious story: Bottom Line
' I! J% C7 ^$ x8 C5 z! INext story: Building permits hit record5 p& [0 f. P. Q8 H* ]( V
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