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Thu January 11, 2007 www.edmontonsun.com
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* r) z1 C; I5 R! W$ S' G! hThu, January 11, 2007
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5 U2 A: r1 h; ^$ UPrice is still rightEdmonton Real Estate Board president expects a 15% climb in 2007
' O2 ~2 q6 ]) }6 }; B# fBy NEIL WAUGH, EDMONTON SUN
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They're changing the guard down at the Edmonton real estate palace.
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1 c) `5 @+ ^" r% O7 oMadeline Sarafinchan is out. Carolyn Pratt is taking over the Edmonton Real Estate Board president's gavel - the kind of blunt instrument that some realtors, I suspect, would like to use on ComFree Edmonton upstart Travis Holowach. More on that later.
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But first, the EREB president's bold predictions and fearless forecasts.
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Don't expect a repeat of last year's housing boom where condo and single family dwelling prices spiked an incredible 52%. Pratt is now calling for a more modest increase of 15%.
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"We feel the increase will come because there will be continued demand, consumer confidence, a very robust economy and low interest rates," Pratt whooped at the EREB's New Year's kick-off conference at the Westin. "All the factors are there for another terrific year." 8 y- D2 u# o$ Y0 p3 w) `
L( }5 [% R- D b7 s$ vShe predicted that the total number of residential sales isn't expected to increase in 2007 - despite thousands of pot-of-gold seekers still flocking to the capital region from across the country as Ontario continues to sputter. . P- D* z- n6 l# O
' o5 R. N0 E0 v& s2 P% {* K/ d" e2 t"There just won't be enough houses to sell," she sighed.
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Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation senior analyst Richard Goatcher was also talking a good-news-bad-news scenario at the board meeting. 3 D }! ?5 K2 S
c" n9 n2 O, M"The big issue is, are we going to see continued in-migration into the city with the volumes we had last year?" Goatcher said. His expectation is "somewhat less." ! W% N/ Y4 m' g* M
9 ^- M/ s7 |. c5 [- ~; F6 j# [Still, total new-house starts will be "fairly similar" to last year's pace. 2006 turned out to be a record year. So was 2005. But Goatcher is predicting a 5% decrease in house starts. ! Y% |1 X7 P% @0 B* X3 K8 B. z I
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"A lot of it is due to capacity issues," he said. Developers are running out of serviced lots in some areas. Some homebuilders "got a little overstretched" during last year's house-building frenzy. " D# l! o! J) y+ t7 y- M7 V& X
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"There are too many shortages in the system," he shrugged. ( v8 q: R" w" I+ ^+ [2 y1 D# ~+ n
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"But it's still going to be very, very strong," he quickly added, with the average new-home selling price ramping up by 20%. 4 D2 R* T) j/ L- T [9 @
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He also doesn't see a repeat of the 2006 price boom in the resale market, which he described as "unsustainable." ( G! {# J( l1 i- a& T' Q5 ?) n
' C. Y4 [; }! {$ K# ~- fExpect a more gentle 10% increase - mainly because many potential buyers are now being priced out of the market - even with zero down payment and 40-year mortgages. $ Z) G; C! C6 f+ D' u
% Y4 n; a$ q# z2 R: uOver at ComFree Edmonton, president Travis Holowach was also celebrating what he described as a "steaming red hot" real estate market, and another "record-setting" year for his commission-free real estate service.
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5 _' t: V* T$ A4 D+ }7 b7 GHis 2006 wind-up report shows 4,375 total sales and 5,721 new listings, up 74% from 2005 - clearly sucking up a lot of the inventory that would otherwise have gone to an EREB realtor. ' Q( j4 L( b, T
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"Our growing presence in the marketplace is having a strong impact on the competition," Holowach winked.
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So strong that the Alberta Real Estate Association launched a complaint with Alberta Government Services claiming ComFree was bending the truth about its market share. : y* b |, a. V/ H0 V. Z$ J
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Yesterday ComFree was still claiming 30% share of the residential market. And "commissions saved" of $82 million from his sell-it-yourself operation. Which, of course, is what the battle is really all about. 4 s1 d: I! a4 b9 l
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"We do 95% of the sales in the real estate market," Pratt countered.
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% h: M0 j7 Q5 o- f5 vLet the good times roll. ! B3 ~9 m" X$ Y
8 P5 s c4 j7 O3 t& l8 t' fPrevious story: Bottom Line- A+ L; u8 |" U: T9 _" Q' _9 [8 z/ x0 g
Next story: Building permits hit record7 X. s2 X& q; s2 P- l
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