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: S6 Y. u. C( z8 o9 {# aThu, January 11, 2007
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Price is still rightEdmonton Real Estate Board president expects a 15% climb in 2007
0 G+ M3 X2 b& m$ x3 [2 s/ pBy NEIL WAUGH, EDMONTON SUN5 u1 w6 Z6 Y8 y# j
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( n6 H3 I7 W$ u# o$ c7 B2 \They're changing the guard down at the Edmonton real estate palace.
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Madeline Sarafinchan is out. Carolyn Pratt is taking over the Edmonton Real Estate Board president's gavel - the kind of blunt instrument that some realtors, I suspect, would like to use on ComFree Edmonton upstart Travis Holowach. More on that later. " X D) ?# Z- ^% Z
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But first, the EREB president's bold predictions and fearless forecasts. , B3 k- H8 I( p' d1 r O: j! z
0 u" U) {2 c: `) A* H1 Y* GDon't expect a repeat of last year's housing boom where condo and single family dwelling prices spiked an incredible 52%. Pratt is now calling for a more modest increase of 15%.
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'CONTINUED DEMAND' ! |4 h5 }/ G; ^- u: `
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"We feel the increase will come because there will be continued demand, consumer confidence, a very robust economy and low interest rates," Pratt whooped at the EREB's New Year's kick-off conference at the Westin. "All the factors are there for another terrific year."
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5 n1 n* S% _; x9 K2 U8 G+ u$ H; AShe predicted that the total number of residential sales isn't expected to increase in 2007 - despite thousands of pot-of-gold seekers still flocking to the capital region from across the country as Ontario continues to sputter.
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"There just won't be enough houses to sell," she sighed.
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Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation senior analyst Richard Goatcher was also talking a good-news-bad-news scenario at the board meeting. % A% I. \1 b% O7 D: o' y3 ~' @
4 E; V3 b8 |0 Z1 b" C( ]"The big issue is, are we going to see continued in-migration into the city with the volumes we had last year?" Goatcher said. His expectation is "somewhat less."
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Still, total new-house starts will be "fairly similar" to last year's pace. 2006 turned out to be a record year. So was 2005. But Goatcher is predicting a 5% decrease in house starts.
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* g( v. A4 N- o$ ?3 Q"A lot of it is due to capacity issues," he said. Developers are running out of serviced lots in some areas. Some homebuilders "got a little overstretched" during last year's house-building frenzy. 9 \! N! m4 f! ~. p6 n
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"There are too many shortages in the system," he shrugged.
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"But it's still going to be very, very strong," he quickly added, with the average new-home selling price ramping up by 20%. o) i, y: t/ K0 P' k
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3 ~, v7 Y/ l1 Z; u2 l" ^He also doesn't see a repeat of the 2006 price boom in the resale market, which he described as "unsustainable."
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9 v9 `4 J: J4 b6 d0 d tExpect a more gentle 10% increase - mainly because many potential buyers are now being priced out of the market - even with zero down payment and 40-year mortgages.
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R; I5 T% `$ k \Over at ComFree Edmonton, president Travis Holowach was also celebrating what he described as a "steaming red hot" real estate market, and another "record-setting" year for his commission-free real estate service.
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0 _0 {- j. S' @" u% S5 \* IHis 2006 wind-up report shows 4,375 total sales and 5,721 new listings, up 74% from 2005 - clearly sucking up a lot of the inventory that would otherwise have gone to an EREB realtor.
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- v9 K4 m: W. G8 G9 \5 p"Our growing presence in the marketplace is having a strong impact on the competition," Holowach winked.
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So strong that the Alberta Real Estate Association launched a complaint with Alberta Government Services claiming ComFree was bending the truth about its market share.
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- q# V, c" ?( W, n/ |: `! M* CYesterday ComFree was still claiming 30% share of the residential market. And "commissions saved" of $82 million from his sell-it-yourself operation. Which, of course, is what the battle is really all about. : Z0 T7 q& @$ C# C
0 T3 \8 W) R: M"We do 95% of the sales in the real estate market," Pratt countered.
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Let the good times roll. 5 o0 V& q6 O# r& r1 A
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6 p d$ _- K9 B5 bNext story: Building permits hit record. R6 `6 Q! W" g# B$ f
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