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Thu, January 11, 2007/ V, i3 L, p0 T6 `
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Price is still rightEdmonton Real Estate Board president expects a 15% climb in 2007
# `5 Q: h' N$ ]By NEIL WAUGH, EDMONTON SUN: ^: D, v" Y3 ~
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7 W8 T) B8 m2 R6 AThey're changing the guard down at the Edmonton real estate palace. 4 B. v8 c# ^5 }0 u9 u
6 E. D! P% B: Y0 F6 ], c8 AMadeline Sarafinchan is out. Carolyn Pratt is taking over the Edmonton Real Estate Board president's gavel - the kind of blunt instrument that some realtors, I suspect, would like to use on ComFree Edmonton upstart Travis Holowach. More on that later.
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But first, the EREB president's bold predictions and fearless forecasts.
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Don't expect a repeat of last year's housing boom where condo and single family dwelling prices spiked an incredible 52%. Pratt is now calling for a more modest increase of 15%. " j4 a. M; E) ~. q
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'CONTINUED DEMAND'
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"We feel the increase will come because there will be continued demand, consumer confidence, a very robust economy and low interest rates," Pratt whooped at the EREB's New Year's kick-off conference at the Westin. "All the factors are there for another terrific year." 9 E# b' f, [( E+ A8 t @
! Z6 N" {* F" {* Y* q5 n+ K9 iShe predicted that the total number of residential sales isn't expected to increase in 2007 - despite thousands of pot-of-gold seekers still flocking to the capital region from across the country as Ontario continues to sputter.
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"There just won't be enough houses to sell," she sighed.
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Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation senior analyst Richard Goatcher was also talking a good-news-bad-news scenario at the board meeting.
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"The big issue is, are we going to see continued in-migration into the city with the volumes we had last year?" Goatcher said. His expectation is "somewhat less."
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' W8 C! Y, P; L, c8 @( ?% s- ZStill, total new-house starts will be "fairly similar" to last year's pace. 2006 turned out to be a record year. So was 2005. But Goatcher is predicting a 5% decrease in house starts. 0 c3 K& [, {2 S
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"A lot of it is due to capacity issues," he said. Developers are running out of serviced lots in some areas. Some homebuilders "got a little overstretched" during last year's house-building frenzy. ! x( J" h6 D- b/ g- c% s# J
% ~7 m8 K. x9 s; H5 o( O9 h1 h"There are too many shortages in the system," he shrugged.
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"But it's still going to be very, very strong," he quickly added, with the average new-home selling price ramping up by 20%. 3 t- [) j$ H$ d' b# r
! A8 o) |" Y. Y- ENO PRICE BOOM REPEAT
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He also doesn't see a repeat of the 2006 price boom in the resale market, which he described as "unsustainable."
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Expect a more gentle 10% increase - mainly because many potential buyers are now being priced out of the market - even with zero down payment and 40-year mortgages.
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+ `( ^; n0 m& H9 i, L9 [Over at ComFree Edmonton, president Travis Holowach was also celebrating what he described as a "steaming red hot" real estate market, and another "record-setting" year for his commission-free real estate service. : }- ~3 u1 p4 p5 ^! q
, |* U _ J* q2 l0 iHis 2006 wind-up report shows 4,375 total sales and 5,721 new listings, up 74% from 2005 - clearly sucking up a lot of the inventory that would otherwise have gone to an EREB realtor.
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"Our growing presence in the marketplace is having a strong impact on the competition," Holowach winked.
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, g; b% V' Y3 X/ d! ISo strong that the Alberta Real Estate Association launched a complaint with Alberta Government Services claiming ComFree was bending the truth about its market share.
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8 m; L v: i' I6 U# q4 B- n6 }Yesterday ComFree was still claiming 30% share of the residential market. And "commissions saved" of $82 million from his sell-it-yourself operation. Which, of course, is what the battle is really all about. ' F& \4 O1 w K* M6 _/ x
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"We do 95% of the sales in the real estate market," Pratt countered. 9 V9 C9 U0 s8 a9 @. |: s. H
% y5 I4 Y, m% ?$ s2 E# YLet the good times roll. 7 J. r7 b1 `1 m7 O$ b* L
0 d- s7 n; T$ |, p# k, f0 lPrevious story: Bottom Line* z& \/ W- R/ z& o+ x3 |
Next story: Building permits hit record
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