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) Q& E8 w0 c- {# p% ?% l Thu January 11, 2007 www.edmontonsun.com
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Thu, January 11, 2007
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Price is still rightEdmonton Real Estate Board president expects a 15% climb in 2007
) ]$ c- z. E EBy NEIL WAUGH, EDMONTON SUN
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1 ~: X) m1 m$ r/ x9 s* Z0 F" ZThey're changing the guard down at the Edmonton real estate palace.
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6 D9 E+ i% y7 n4 BMadeline Sarafinchan is out. Carolyn Pratt is taking over the Edmonton Real Estate Board president's gavel - the kind of blunt instrument that some realtors, I suspect, would like to use on ComFree Edmonton upstart Travis Holowach. More on that later.
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9 x- q% K% M! ?0 tBut first, the EREB president's bold predictions and fearless forecasts. # c" l" ^1 c9 c. F
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Don't expect a repeat of last year's housing boom where condo and single family dwelling prices spiked an incredible 52%. Pratt is now calling for a more modest increase of 15%. ; A. p$ n) t) g* U0 I, @' v* P
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"We feel the increase will come because there will be continued demand, consumer confidence, a very robust economy and low interest rates," Pratt whooped at the EREB's New Year's kick-off conference at the Westin. "All the factors are there for another terrific year." - ^+ W# G* H& }% t; N
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She predicted that the total number of residential sales isn't expected to increase in 2007 - despite thousands of pot-of-gold seekers still flocking to the capital region from across the country as Ontario continues to sputter. 3 P& P4 @2 d% r3 c2 x1 k
* i4 t4 N8 t {3 U9 J"There just won't be enough houses to sell," she sighed.
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( Q5 M0 i* S: s, I8 l7 ?Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation senior analyst Richard Goatcher was also talking a good-news-bad-news scenario at the board meeting. # n+ ]+ ~* ~) P: w
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"The big issue is, are we going to see continued in-migration into the city with the volumes we had last year?" Goatcher said. His expectation is "somewhat less." 8 n0 l! y) Q7 J. I$ n3 r$ O
8 p4 f/ B% _1 Q' JStill, total new-house starts will be "fairly similar" to last year's pace. 2006 turned out to be a record year. So was 2005. But Goatcher is predicting a 5% decrease in house starts.
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"A lot of it is due to capacity issues," he said. Developers are running out of serviced lots in some areas. Some homebuilders "got a little overstretched" during last year's house-building frenzy.
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"There are too many shortages in the system," he shrugged.
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1 w+ h0 \: n, ]2 N$ ~+ [0 F"But it's still going to be very, very strong," he quickly added, with the average new-home selling price ramping up by 20%. 7 H0 X" @+ c; q$ X! r6 k: E6 i
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NO PRICE BOOM REPEAT
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He also doesn't see a repeat of the 2006 price boom in the resale market, which he described as "unsustainable." 6 s! _0 s' i* H" O/ s% E
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Expect a more gentle 10% increase - mainly because many potential buyers are now being priced out of the market - even with zero down payment and 40-year mortgages. 8 P1 i1 R# h1 u: {7 |4 K2 M9 | Q$ d
/ E: H" {* F( l" H }8 JOver at ComFree Edmonton, president Travis Holowach was also celebrating what he described as a "steaming red hot" real estate market, and another "record-setting" year for his commission-free real estate service.
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His 2006 wind-up report shows 4,375 total sales and 5,721 new listings, up 74% from 2005 - clearly sucking up a lot of the inventory that would otherwise have gone to an EREB realtor. 3 ~2 v2 |. }* d2 @* {
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"Our growing presence in the marketplace is having a strong impact on the competition," Holowach winked.
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So strong that the Alberta Real Estate Association launched a complaint with Alberta Government Services claiming ComFree was bending the truth about its market share. - L) `* l, o; k
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Yesterday ComFree was still claiming 30% share of the residential market. And "commissions saved" of $82 million from his sell-it-yourself operation. Which, of course, is what the battle is really all about.
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"We do 95% of the sales in the real estate market," Pratt countered.
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n' b3 R6 H TLet the good times roll.
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Previous story: Bottom Line: c/ k5 P/ g5 t, b n# h! e
Next story: Building permits hit record
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