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% t1 e8 J+ U- O \; fThu, January 11, 2007
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( i& S/ d _& Y0 E$ IPrice is still rightEdmonton Real Estate Board president expects a 15% climb in 2007$ A9 r$ b- h& l3 C
By NEIL WAUGH, EDMONTON SUN
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They're changing the guard down at the Edmonton real estate palace. : ]! F( Q, h% @# b) a0 _
' _' q( L4 ?/ m0 c, X. {9 _Madeline Sarafinchan is out. Carolyn Pratt is taking over the Edmonton Real Estate Board president's gavel - the kind of blunt instrument that some realtors, I suspect, would like to use on ComFree Edmonton upstart Travis Holowach. More on that later. . Q' s, {7 M |( u
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But first, the EREB president's bold predictions and fearless forecasts.
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Don't expect a repeat of last year's housing boom where condo and single family dwelling prices spiked an incredible 52%. Pratt is now calling for a more modest increase of 15%. " K7 L& s/ ^: i
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' W5 {2 t4 m! k+ v"We feel the increase will come because there will be continued demand, consumer confidence, a very robust economy and low interest rates," Pratt whooped at the EREB's New Year's kick-off conference at the Westin. "All the factors are there for another terrific year." $ B$ S" y. c2 d$ B& l
3 K7 c0 P* z4 l9 K' B% D5 d* F& nShe predicted that the total number of residential sales isn't expected to increase in 2007 - despite thousands of pot-of-gold seekers still flocking to the capital region from across the country as Ontario continues to sputter. & T$ s6 ]( f: L) p
. O1 S; o) ^ u9 Z: \) r"There just won't be enough houses to sell," she sighed. * O( L+ y4 i* d# n
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Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation senior analyst Richard Goatcher was also talking a good-news-bad-news scenario at the board meeting.
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"The big issue is, are we going to see continued in-migration into the city with the volumes we had last year?" Goatcher said. His expectation is "somewhat less." 7 V( a$ X) b3 ~
9 @6 P. G8 W9 @' t; \& @Still, total new-house starts will be "fairly similar" to last year's pace. 2006 turned out to be a record year. So was 2005. But Goatcher is predicting a 5% decrease in house starts.
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"A lot of it is due to capacity issues," he said. Developers are running out of serviced lots in some areas. Some homebuilders "got a little overstretched" during last year's house-building frenzy. * R1 ?1 R2 ~+ i6 D
6 ?4 _$ p, z& s. ?"There are too many shortages in the system," he shrugged. . n6 y4 @4 [7 X2 A
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"But it's still going to be very, very strong," he quickly added, with the average new-home selling price ramping up by 20%.
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He also doesn't see a repeat of the 2006 price boom in the resale market, which he described as "unsustainable." ) i5 Q B6 O3 A& u0 x* [7 z- O) O
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Expect a more gentle 10% increase - mainly because many potential buyers are now being priced out of the market - even with zero down payment and 40-year mortgages. ! B- ]- A. D0 H# l3 Z$ ^
% d4 z. z/ J& \4 J& cOver at ComFree Edmonton, president Travis Holowach was also celebrating what he described as a "steaming red hot" real estate market, and another "record-setting" year for his commission-free real estate service.
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His 2006 wind-up report shows 4,375 total sales and 5,721 new listings, up 74% from 2005 - clearly sucking up a lot of the inventory that would otherwise have gone to an EREB realtor.
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"Our growing presence in the marketplace is having a strong impact on the competition," Holowach winked.
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9 U: o, @! p3 Y& W+ nSo strong that the Alberta Real Estate Association launched a complaint with Alberta Government Services claiming ComFree was bending the truth about its market share.
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Yesterday ComFree was still claiming 30% share of the residential market. And "commissions saved" of $82 million from his sell-it-yourself operation. Which, of course, is what the battle is really all about. 2 T+ ~, g4 n1 y, ?/ D+ J4 o
" P) B! X% M y"We do 95% of the sales in the real estate market," Pratt countered. : W) p, w, D' R$ O, I# h
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Let the good times roll.
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