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Thu January 11, 2007 www.edmontonsun.com
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Price is still rightEdmonton Real Estate Board president expects a 15% climb in 2007
1 A4 S8 _! K- y2 e" ~: }5 LBy NEIL WAUGH, EDMONTON SUN
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- X3 t: R; W) _6 MThey're changing the guard down at the Edmonton real estate palace. - r! N3 E9 W5 Q; D& x
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Madeline Sarafinchan is out. Carolyn Pratt is taking over the Edmonton Real Estate Board president's gavel - the kind of blunt instrument that some realtors, I suspect, would like to use on ComFree Edmonton upstart Travis Holowach. More on that later. * v# R( d0 T# _# r
$ a2 z! Q; u3 P- o* J# |- uBut first, the EREB president's bold predictions and fearless forecasts.
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: V+ q& h3 V8 y4 \; {6 BDon't expect a repeat of last year's housing boom where condo and single family dwelling prices spiked an incredible 52%. Pratt is now calling for a more modest increase of 15%. , s6 g5 G4 S/ ~) f
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'CONTINUED DEMAND' # M; O" a5 i4 |7 E+ v$ Z9 S
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"We feel the increase will come because there will be continued demand, consumer confidence, a very robust economy and low interest rates," Pratt whooped at the EREB's New Year's kick-off conference at the Westin. "All the factors are there for another terrific year."
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She predicted that the total number of residential sales isn't expected to increase in 2007 - despite thousands of pot-of-gold seekers still flocking to the capital region from across the country as Ontario continues to sputter.
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"There just won't be enough houses to sell," she sighed. T h; G/ D3 z- z
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Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation senior analyst Richard Goatcher was also talking a good-news-bad-news scenario at the board meeting. " S9 ^6 U$ d3 S
3 u2 h2 ?! ^( Z4 N8 v8 N"The big issue is, are we going to see continued in-migration into the city with the volumes we had last year?" Goatcher said. His expectation is "somewhat less."
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" \; N% \* S8 A6 {- h/ w% ZStill, total new-house starts will be "fairly similar" to last year's pace. 2006 turned out to be a record year. So was 2005. But Goatcher is predicting a 5% decrease in house starts.
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# _/ s: o9 X3 s/ n. C, Q"A lot of it is due to capacity issues," he said. Developers are running out of serviced lots in some areas. Some homebuilders "got a little overstretched" during last year's house-building frenzy. 7 W1 G& \# S. n; O. K5 `6 n, `, Z
' W e0 ]' L9 _. O0 S! @"There are too many shortages in the system," he shrugged.
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$ s6 b( r* x; T) k"But it's still going to be very, very strong," he quickly added, with the average new-home selling price ramping up by 20%. + B& N. w; x/ g7 J7 ~. i/ N
$ a/ p% I( P: MNO PRICE BOOM REPEAT " ^) u% l; J8 w9 n. U2 G1 s
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He also doesn't see a repeat of the 2006 price boom in the resale market, which he described as "unsustainable." ' ~/ a' ~3 s8 D1 |! V
' S; ?' |: b6 LExpect a more gentle 10% increase - mainly because many potential buyers are now being priced out of the market - even with zero down payment and 40-year mortgages. 6 W2 w% H# U: `, Y! i9 n$ m
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Over at ComFree Edmonton, president Travis Holowach was also celebrating what he described as a "steaming red hot" real estate market, and another "record-setting" year for his commission-free real estate service. 9 V9 y b9 P3 E) O# I
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His 2006 wind-up report shows 4,375 total sales and 5,721 new listings, up 74% from 2005 - clearly sucking up a lot of the inventory that would otherwise have gone to an EREB realtor. : D0 T" F T3 v t2 O
- x* o; Y @* m8 }0 V* q% ~"Our growing presence in the marketplace is having a strong impact on the competition," Holowach winked. 1 w6 U4 Y9 ~* D. l7 E
6 ^4 }6 z4 h. H' `0 HSo strong that the Alberta Real Estate Association launched a complaint with Alberta Government Services claiming ComFree was bending the truth about its market share. : I6 f: n5 h4 P4 M
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Yesterday ComFree was still claiming 30% share of the residential market. And "commissions saved" of $82 million from his sell-it-yourself operation. Which, of course, is what the battle is really all about. . {. v5 D7 r' e
: Q- p8 g8 {. `1 @"We do 95% of the sales in the real estate market," Pratt countered.
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Let the good times roll.
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/ Y' d: ^6 P$ C8 r( _Previous story: Bottom Line
: ~$ x% O% V6 U" U& B0 f& hNext story: Building permits hit record$ s; T! D0 Z( e6 ]2 |
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发表于 2007-1-14 18:29
