Single Family info update Oct 1-10

QWE321

Edmonton Single Family Home
' a. I# F  O# N$ L! Y! p9 XMLS Statistics(Unofficial)
' n/ `* v" a0 u; \Includes Edmonton, St Albert, Sherwood Park, Spruce Grove, Stony Plain
Note: These areas do not coincide with the criteria used by the Edmonton Real Estate Board
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$ K3 ^; E' T: aDate      Inventory  New Listings Added  Sales  30-Day Avg Price 30-Day Median Price SP/SF DOM Sales/NewListing Ratio  

Oct 1-10 4879 678 185 429,254 394,000 295 40 27%
3 T# b3 d; u  e6 V# n, Z2 |
Sep 2007 5030 2214 515 426,984 390,000 303 41 23%
1 i/ l5 U& z4 `$ w. H+ W
8 Q. j$ N3 T7 C! D# k, ZAug 2007 4656 2108 635 429,889 395,000 314 36 30%
, m% k2 z, I  Q
) N6 ~0 b( U5 [/ k6 MJul 2007
$ H: V1 G  ~; w NA
$ i6 X$ `( U, D2 v2 ]" C, V 2328
717
# z5 m  w5 S9 u9 [' j 442,752
7 B1 c* |# @' R9 ~+ y" w 410,000
' R9 b) E$ ]& x 320
" [3 i. [( R2 A# I% `% d; z 28
: t) W; C- k/ u5 }* ~1 R6 M: _ 31%

( R. V8 ~6 v& o; _% [4 |Jun 2007
4 \) c* f  `# m7 V9 j NA
& ?3 q0 o. k1 q9 ]% Y5 W: s 2661
1011
/ _$ T; O0 i1 c- N 442,817
409,000
328
22
4 I; a0 q6 ?9 c& x1 C$ x. H 38%
8 O, ]; E  M! D9 v3 R
May 2007
% y: I2 _1 P( y" D: v7 B4 Y NA
2288
1261
6 w2 K- O9 e3 K2 ], e 451,216
7 _1 W" i1 @; F' Z0 t 415,000
322
: B* c8 H( n  h. D' P; d 19
55%

紫光

存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
鉴定完毕！

WST

看来，存货似已见顶。
$ W0 h& y# w( e* S这几天，在街上又见现金收购房子的广告。

yj151

景之白干

原帖由 紫光 于 2007-10-16 22:03 发表
! p2 Q- B$ q- L7 p# O/ r存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
% {' R3 B! u, p4 U. z% V5 u鉴定完毕！

用十天的数据来和30天的比较，鉴定结果可靠吗？

Z

1）房价持续下跌，每尺从303跌到295。
% W1 T0 ]5 P2 u, v2）成交房里大房子比重上升，使得每尺单价下跌但总的中位价上升。
+ j- u  k: e  M* j' C, A* {  d3）存量惊人。每年秋冬，存量都会锐减。但现在是持平。考虑到季节因素，存量其实是增加了。

Z

原帖由 紫光 于 2007-10-16 22:03 发表
存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
6 O8 a9 l; B! a7 S鉴定完毕！

; i7 A% R1 ^# N8 q6 Z) U2 K6 p% U7 }
) x  @, E+ w; j. d呵呵，太不专业了吧。

新存量 = 旧存量 + 新列量 - 新销量 - 下市量

就是说， 存量变化 = 新存量 - 旧存量 = 新列量 - 新销量 - 下市量 = 678 -185 - 下市量

这里面我们没有下市量的数据。你简单的回避新增的678和未知的下市量，你的算法也太粗糙了。

QWE321

Don't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

judyzh

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 08:21 发表
Don't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

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紫光

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 08:21 发表
$ `! t$ T6 |  `) i& w" }* SDon't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

QWE321

In average sale 3000 per month, but last 6 months, the sales between 1000 to 2000.
Is the mean there are other 6000 potential buyers there?
How about all these potential buyers start taking their action?
  {* L/ A# ^( L6 m* eThat is what i say half full or half empty.
* e" H$ @/ ^6 e+ L5 I$ ngood luck for people seeking their house.

水管工

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 10:09 发表
In average sale 3000 per month, but last 6 months, the sales between 1000 to 2000.
+ U( j7 V2 ?2 z. SIs the mean there are other 6000 potential buyers there?
How about all these potential buyers start taking the ...

I think a lot of investors and speculators are quitting from the market, it is too hard for them to make money. Instead, they are dumping their houses now to make a profit.

WST

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-16 16:13 发表
7 u, {# b7 q$ U3 ~. UEdmonton Single Family Home
MLS Statistics(Unofficial)
Includes Edmonton, St Albert, Sherwood Park, Spruce Grove, Stony Plain
! t. E4 s% ^( V, T% BNote: These areas do not coincide with the criteria used by the  ...

  t; s1 R, {; @) \QWE321:　这些数据来源于何处？是否可靠？又无网站连接?

QWE321

http://www.bobtruman.com/Edmonton_SFH_stats/page_1918017.html

小曲

原帖由 水管工 于 2007-10-17 10:23 发表

5 W9 n0 t$ l6 x4 ^& n
I think a lot of investors and speculators are quitting from the market, it is too hard for them to make money. Instead, they are dumping their houses now to make a profit.

8 j' ^1 X; [" y! r/ Q

WST

原帖由 Z 于 2007-10-17 07:36 发表
/ j7 n' m2 L8 A4 H; o1 w( p1）房价持续下跌，每尺从303跌到295。
$ b/ a% z$ Q+ I6 u* C1 V' [2）成交房里大房子比重上升，使得每尺单价下跌但总的中位价上升。
3）存量惊人。每年秋冬，存量都会锐减。但现在是持平。考虑到季节因素，存量其实是增加了。

- c) i) \' c# B; q  [) M下半年，存量通常会持续增加，以卡城为例，参考下图：
$ Q1 C/ K+ P4 B% m0 `+ K7 [


只有去年例外，存量在年末锐减。

WST

上图为days inventory 和 总存量有不同。总存量在年末的确大减。
; \9 [, y6 r" |6 ?5 }! ^* i8 A$ {看来，观察days inventory 更重要。