Single Family info update Oct 1-10

QWE321

Edmonton Single Family Home
1 o" M$ M) B5 N2 ^' U1 ?' ]MLS Statistics(Unofficial)
Includes Edmonton, St Albert, Sherwood Park, Spruce Grove, Stony Plain
, m& x8 C- i# w- INote: These areas do not coincide with the criteria used by the Edmonton Real Estate Board
6 y! ?& a( ]9 h9 s4 x) H
Date      Inventory  New Listings Added  Sales  30-Day Avg Price 30-Day Median Price SP/SF DOM Sales/NewListing Ratio  

Oct 1-10 4879 678 185 429,254 394,000 295 40 27%
( @$ k1 \3 e/ ^" h# J7 T# ], b/ ]7 a
' h% Q# ]) @0 f# P; _" D+ i: _Sep 2007 5030 2214 515 426,984 390,000 303 41 23%

Aug 2007 4656 2108 635 429,889 395,000 314 36 30%

Jul 2007
# b* S  L$ c) o" U7 |1 ` NA
% O* G) W' p. j$ Q; ^; Q4 e; G" [; O 2328
717
442,752
410,000
% @. B4 g# @: ~, C& J* [! \9 t 320
. K) N: x2 }: y4 n8 n( ~ 28
0 a4 [$ l7 G9 c& a% ~9 N 31%
1 V; G( Q0 G# X0 l0 _4 ?
Jun 2007
+ v2 |3 B# C. X3 X NA
2661
3 |  j# c' M6 y6 L5 h2 b9 c. d 1011
442,817
409,000
328
9 u* Y& o7 x3 Y1 M1 z 22
7 U, Y% n$ E3 j5 @7 X 38%

+ e' X) e4 [, e2 lMay 2007
5 |% m, X+ G( ?) L' P NA
( \7 L; o3 |! R. z 2288
1261
451,216
, U+ Z# r3 @: J% P: T& y7 W 415,000
, _( o/ P2 A9 W 322
# R7 h2 Y0 c, t  C$ t+ {4 r* n 19
9 C8 u: p& j: p; ~ 55%

紫光

存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
鉴定完毕！

WST

看来，存货似已见顶。
这几天，在街上又见现金收购房子的广告。

yj151

景之白干

原帖由 紫光 于 2007-10-16 22:03 发表
存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
  ~3 l+ ]# D; v鉴定完毕！

" e3 f  W# R5 R  o0 Z9 K用十天的数据来和30天的比较，鉴定结果可靠吗？

Z

1）房价持续下跌，每尺从303跌到295。
: {5 x0 J2 F  J" ^2）成交房里大房子比重上升，使得每尺单价下跌但总的中位价上升。
) R/ j" W5 t) l, R5 F6 w2 X3）存量惊人。每年秋冬，存量都会锐减。但现在是持平。考虑到季节因素，存量其实是增加了。

Z

原帖由 紫光 于 2007-10-16 22:03 发表
8 a4 T% k6 |9 [, K  n存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
( H8 g/ R" `0 S/ H鉴定完毕！

7 c1 ~% I4 @' P* V: j
: j+ s* E2 s! K- N呵呵，太不专业了吧。

' |% L, F$ K" Z5 T) u新存量 = 旧存量 + 新列量 - 新销量 - 下市量
* l: O; @8 @4 G4 D
( I$ i+ |; D( d! A0 _就是说， 存量变化 = 新存量 - 旧存量 = 新列量 - 新销量 - 下市量 = 678 -185 - 下市量
" O# l7 y% }  d0 ~
' o, d& }/ j8 e! K# _$ z这里面我们没有下市量的数据。你简单的回避新增的678和未知的下市量，你的算法也太粗糙了。

QWE321

Don't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

judyzh

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 08:21 发表
* o0 X. f0 a) x- B+ m/ M+ y5 n" jDon't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

紫光

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 08:21 发表
Don't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

QWE321

In average sale 3000 per month, but last 6 months, the sales between 1000 to 2000.
Is the mean there are other 6000 potential buyers there?
/ d+ ~. n; g6 d+ @/ EHow about all these potential buyers start taking their action?
+ J: z# H& \1 U2 s; u; {# AThat is what i say half full or half empty.
3 N' F7 i$ q, J* `2 J$ I* Cgood luck for people seeking their house.

水管工

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 10:09 发表
In average sale 3000 per month, but last 6 months, the sales between 1000 to 2000.
Is the mean there are other 6000 potential buyers there?
& Q0 T# N+ L3 ^0 \How about all these potential buyers start taking the ...

  V' l' J) A9 y! B( Q
I think a lot of investors and speculators are quitting from the market, it is too hard for them to make money. Instead, they are dumping their houses now to make a profit.

WST

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-16 16:13 发表
Edmonton Single Family Home
MLS Statistics(Unofficial)
6 d: I. T  V/ tIncludes Edmonton, St Albert, Sherwood Park, Spruce Grove, Stony Plain
1 j) I/ C6 {. K! _9 q! y8 ONote: These areas do not coincide with the criteria used by the  ...

7 }" v( l7 ~. z  M( GQWE321:　这些数据来源于何处？是否可靠？又无网站连接?

QWE321

http://www.bobtruman.com/Edmonton_SFH_stats/page_1918017.html

小曲

原帖由 水管工 于 2007-10-17 10:23 发表


, p* {. K! G/ _2 _$ z8 r9 v; @I think a lot of investors and speculators are quitting from the market, it is too hard for them to make money. Instead, they are dumping their houses now to make a profit.

WST

原帖由 Z 于 2007-10-17 07:36 发表
9 z+ _, N$ b+ C1 u' q4 t1 c' D1）房价持续下跌，每尺从303跌到295。
2）成交房里大房子比重上升，使得每尺单价下跌但总的中位价上升。
3）存量惊人。每年秋冬，存量都会锐减。但现在是持平。考虑到季节因素，存量其实是增加了。

- U% c; N0 M, l
; W* l& \1 t5 u: E. o; h下半年，存量通常会持续增加，以卡城为例，参考下图：

' n, e3 W& Y: C  n' U0 f( i

只有去年例外，存量在年末锐减。

WST

上图为days inventory 和 总存量有不同。总存量在年末的确大减。
看来，观察days inventory 更重要。