Single Family info update Oct 1-10

QWE321

Edmonton Single Family Home
MLS Statistics(Unofficial)
Includes Edmonton, St Albert, Sherwood Park, Spruce Grove, Stony Plain
& ?: ~: ]& ]( L5 E" |Note: These areas do not coincide with the criteria used by the Edmonton Real Estate Board
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' Y2 |2 i1 q6 l/ |9 tDate      Inventory  New Listings Added  Sales  30-Day Avg Price 30-Day Median Price SP/SF DOM Sales/NewListing Ratio  

Oct 1-10 4879 678 185 429,254 394,000 295 40 27%

Sep 2007 5030 2214 515 426,984 390,000 303 41 23%
8 ?  I0 h! u7 l8 j4 p7 k
) c( M3 e. I+ S8 p8 k1 L4 C7 @Aug 2007 4656 2108 635 429,889 395,000 314 36 30%
( W/ g8 A4 z) ~: [* k3 A; g
Jul 2007
NA
; z6 q. Z/ n1 d% B" x/ b+ y& @ 2328
717
8 G8 I& l2 x& T, O 442,752
410,000
9 j) v5 ]$ s1 `, ?, {2 v 320
28
31%
" |2 P. I: ^  G) C
' @- x. Y* s7 ~Jun 2007
NA
2661
- d$ Q3 E# z: R3 B5 p% j 1011
' f$ n6 S2 u5 q- y 442,817
409,000
2 X7 s+ l9 e7 e7 J* \4 s/ I' S 328
5 [$ n& `. |2 F5 d" l  _7 i 22
: u6 V4 n$ H# X+ r% N- C; U 38%
. Z; L. u  Z/ Y3 b
6 `9 J  s  J, A; F; e5 Q2 gMay 2007
NA
9 d+ P- @0 b! A$ [ 2288
/ X: p  d5 K5 d2 P! A8 p6 h) z9 P 1261
451,216
- I  B) L* Y. w 415,000
! m+ a& {2 E" e5 w( f% K 322
1 S+ T% ]4 C, S3 ], q 19
55%

紫光

存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
7 {4 \) I  \) e! p0 @. v* b鉴定完毕！

WST

看来，存货似已见顶。
. q/ Y2 K9 N7 c5 }这几天，在街上又见现金收购房子的广告。

yj151

景之白干

原帖由 紫光 于 2007-10-16 22:03 发表
/ E5 G; M! `& W1 ?9 }存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
, @! i! I0 F3 i& v' {3 w- a, I$ x鉴定完毕！

用十天的数据来和30天的比较，鉴定结果可靠吗？

Z

1）房价持续下跌，每尺从303跌到295。
, ]& v' g# A" O/ F( j- [. |( T9 r2）成交房里大房子比重上升，使得每尺单价下跌但总的中位价上升。
; A! |. J6 y, G( U3）存量惊人。每年秋冬，存量都会锐减。但现在是持平。考虑到季节因素，存量其实是增加了。

Z

原帖由 紫光 于 2007-10-16 22:03 发表
8 Z" z% j. K3 P( b0 J' c% F0 X存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
鉴定完毕！

$ ^: f7 q2 S, S& |- e
; K) p. R5 `2 f9 p呵呵，太不专业了吧。

$ M( b* J& r7 S4 [7 S& j3 H新存量 = 旧存量 + 新列量 - 新销量 - 下市量
  x2 z' g* _( b9 K3 A+ {, n
8 X5 s3 a$ L6 I  _1 e" J* U. L就是说， 存量变化 = 新存量 - 旧存量 = 新列量 - 新销量 - 下市量 = 678 -185 - 下市量
0 K' D2 g# m+ ?* Z8 E, E! ?
+ ]- S* y, o  j8 w! Z这里面我们没有下市量的数据。你简单的回避新增的678和未知的下市量，你的算法也太粗糙了。

QWE321

Don't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

judyzh

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 08:21 发表
Don't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

紫光

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 08:21 发表
' T5 i0 |, Q) o: a: eDon't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

QWE321

In average sale 3000 per month, but last 6 months, the sales between 1000 to 2000.
Is the mean there are other 6000 potential buyers there?
How about all these potential buyers start taking their action?
That is what i say half full or half empty.
good luck for people seeking their house.

水管工

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 10:09 发表
* v8 p" \) z- s" vIn average sale 3000 per month, but last 6 months, the sales between 1000 to 2000.
7 Q( L# [  z3 M7 k( K8 Q' k' [Is the mean there are other 6000 potential buyers there?
( K: `/ a  p" B) g( u3 d+ X3 ZHow about all these potential buyers start taking the ...

+ A; X8 ~# K* y  W( w6 k. a" Z
3 Q/ t) B) [, d3 F0 W4 i$ aI think a lot of investors and speculators are quitting from the market, it is too hard for them to make money. Instead, they are dumping their houses now to make a profit.

WST

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-16 16:13 发表
/ m/ b( {! D6 u7 NEdmonton Single Family Home
MLS Statistics(Unofficial)
Includes Edmonton, St Albert, Sherwood Park, Spruce Grove, Stony Plain
1 e+ c- @# l: k/ k; ?/ T* BNote: These areas do not coincide with the criteria used by the  ...

$ A/ g4 h5 ^9 D9 `! }  j; h2 f! T) S+ AQWE321:　这些数据来源于何处？是否可靠？又无网站连接?

QWE321

http://www.bobtruman.com/Edmonton_SFH_stats/page_1918017.html

小曲

原帖由 水管工 于 2007-10-17 10:23 发表
  q; t" v) }% o+ T3 Q

I think a lot of investors and speculators are quitting from the market, it is too hard for them to make money. Instead, they are dumping their houses now to make a profit.

9 X! [" }! K0 S

WST

原帖由 Z 于 2007-10-17 07:36 发表
! s% g* b' n- J* r2 b$ B$ S1）房价持续下跌，每尺从303跌到295。
( J6 f! N9 k5 z7 ]( a2）成交房里大房子比重上升，使得每尺单价下跌但总的中位价上升。
, b0 w& I$ \  n- P0 \3）存量惊人。每年秋冬，存量都会锐减。但现在是持平。考虑到季节因素，存量其实是增加了。

) i; f7 t1 i$ `8 r$ }4 p* _
下半年，存量通常会持续增加，以卡城为例，参考下图：



只有去年例外，存量在年末锐减。

WST

上图为days inventory 和 总存量有不同。总存量在年末的确大减。
" \( v: E6 A$ s0 h! }% E看来，观察days inventory 更重要。