Single Family info update Oct 1-10

QWE321

Edmonton Single Family Home
MLS Statistics(Unofficial)
$ Q# H7 K/ d/ g' v# T: E3 ~! R; Z& nIncludes Edmonton, St Albert, Sherwood Park, Spruce Grove, Stony Plain
Note: These areas do not coincide with the criteria used by the Edmonton Real Estate Board

* B* X: M( b" ~+ U5 j2 BDate      Inventory  New Listings Added  Sales  30-Day Avg Price 30-Day Median Price SP/SF DOM Sales/NewListing Ratio  
6 Z( m! T+ w* W7 i& Q3 d
Oct 1-10 4879 678 185 429,254 394,000 295 40 27%

  @1 }: U/ P  ~1 t9 t& |Sep 2007 5030 2214 515 426,984 390,000 303 41 23%

' O( x# q6 k% \$ G% X. @& s' I) z! m3 IAug 2007 4656 2108 635 429,889 395,000 314 36 30%
4 q% a4 o& K; a( e9 `. x! b* G  b
Jul 2007
' x3 q/ e" c* |  J  v& Y NA
2328
: N; C) a6 F( i) g8 f0 i+ } 717
442,752
410,000
6 P/ L- y/ H: M1 P# V# X 320
! Q+ O! m& M4 D/ Y- H 28
  B. U0 ^4 m# H# s 31%

* e3 i7 a/ W# ?, C$ QJun 2007
6 f- F/ Y: l) N0 H- a NA
2661
1011
442,817
409,000
7 k. W& E5 b2 t: ]$ c3 h$ { 328
22
38%
0 i! C1 p3 {- _! O
( U+ H0 y# W2 C2 u0 j2 f% p* C0 dMay 2007
1 s. d; ~; b9 q& q1 R NA
- m* R0 R( w: K/ H) c7 H* R 2288
1 ]% U( h+ {- c# O/ {: v% m 1261
451,216
415,000
0 ]. ~0 d: I6 d 322
- U) u0 u( T( w; d6 H. ] 19
55%

紫光

存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
$ B$ s2 H: ]) ^# B, Q鉴定完毕！

WST

看来，存货似已见顶。
7 a; F) m" y/ {这几天，在街上又见现金收购房子的广告。

yj151

景之白干

原帖由 紫光 于 2007-10-16 22:03 发表
存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
2 r( x7 V% c: F8 u1 b鉴定完毕！

& r: e3 ]0 v5 q+ d4 M0 z$ s
% M* S5 W  @* e+ W用十天的数据来和30天的比较，鉴定结果可靠吗？

Z

1）房价持续下跌，每尺从303跌到295。
& I; t; a; O0 n6 {6 S1 |$ c2）成交房里大房子比重上升，使得每尺单价下跌但总的中位价上升。
6 m/ M  k6 u0 x* O% y7 Q3）存量惊人。每年秋冬，存量都会锐减。但现在是持平。考虑到季节因素，存量其实是增加了。

Z

原帖由 紫光 于 2007-10-16 22:03 发表
+ u/ X  {8 ?5 b( Y5 F/ v- T8 G存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
( J" q  D+ g6 `  C: x鉴定完毕！

  B; {% d+ G0 T0 h6 n
: n+ }7 {/ K. v/ a5 D$ i呵呵，太不专业了吧。
3 n. p3 J8 N9 f" G. Z
+ R9 x' V7 F1 c* w) c5 h7 i新存量 = 旧存量 + 新列量 - 新销量 - 下市量
+ \( s9 L; {, }" ?* C2 z
就是说， 存量变化 = 新存量 - 旧存量 = 新列量 - 新销量 - 下市量 = 678 -185 - 下市量
  ?/ o1 a% U; F& _6 P& l
这里面我们没有下市量的数据。你简单的回避新增的678和未知的下市量，你的算法也太粗糙了。

QWE321

Don't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

judyzh

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 08:21 发表
$ e2 h8 w3 l6 Q. V8 S) z( hDon't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

紫光

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 08:21 发表
* M# n. t: A/ T7 KDon't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

! p5 F4 ?* R5 H! q* E% M

QWE321

In average sale 3000 per month, but last 6 months, the sales between 1000 to 2000.
1 s* v0 j, H6 \. Z6 L+ lIs the mean there are other 6000 potential buyers there?
! w3 y: j$ t/ m" y+ j0 W  t- J4 IHow about all these potential buyers start taking their action?
! O& M* f* V6 n5 m( I& r. ^That is what i say half full or half empty.
good luck for people seeking their house.

水管工

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 10:09 发表
' J" @$ p. [7 L/ h" O8 }5 ^3 BIn average sale 3000 per month, but last 6 months, the sales between 1000 to 2000.
Is the mean there are other 6000 potential buyers there?
How about all these potential buyers start taking the ...

5 V+ z1 n3 A7 G6 II think a lot of investors and speculators are quitting from the market, it is too hard for them to make money. Instead, they are dumping their houses now to make a profit.

WST

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-16 16:13 发表
+ O% }* r- P. p" pEdmonton Single Family Home
MLS Statistics(Unofficial)
( P& w! O6 z9 V0 lIncludes Edmonton, St Albert, Sherwood Park, Spruce Grove, Stony Plain
Note: These areas do not coincide with the criteria used by the  ...

QWE321:　这些数据来源于何处？是否可靠？又无网站连接?

QWE321

http://www.bobtruman.com/Edmonton_SFH_stats/page_1918017.html

小曲

原帖由 水管工 于 2007-10-17 10:23 发表


2 y" w# o% Z2 r- o! @4 H3 }( }I think a lot of investors and speculators are quitting from the market, it is too hard for them to make money. Instead, they are dumping their houses now to make a profit.

WST

原帖由 Z 于 2007-10-17 07:36 发表
- N1 f7 c6 s9 g  `2 Y$ O+ _1）房价持续下跌，每尺从303跌到295。
% _$ v: R+ D. m9 m2）成交房里大房子比重上升，使得每尺单价下跌但总的中位价上升。
$ G; f1 d8 [3 b# D1 A. ?3）存量惊人。每年秋冬，存量都会锐减。但现在是持平。考虑到季节因素，存量其实是增加了。

4 b3 F- Y, Q1 V  R8 k下半年，存量通常会持续增加，以卡城为例，参考下图：
  }- f1 D$ O5 }- P! |+ D2 \! `


只有去年例外，存量在年末锐减。

WST

上图为days inventory 和 总存量有不同。总存量在年末的确大减。
: p2 z1 ]1 ?3 b* k看来，观察days inventory 更重要。