Single Family info update Oct 1-10

QWE321

Edmonton Single Family Home
- V. C& F0 X4 p) JMLS Statistics(Unofficial)
& E* ^! D4 Z8 }  vIncludes Edmonton, St Albert, Sherwood Park, Spruce Grove, Stony Plain
Note: These areas do not coincide with the criteria used by the Edmonton Real Estate Board

+ [4 h# |4 e- ~: O! D. i* rDate      Inventory  New Listings Added  Sales  30-Day Avg Price 30-Day Median Price SP/SF DOM Sales/NewListing Ratio  

) S/ Z! e, A: s1 o$ C" x* yOct 1-10 4879 678 185 429,254 394,000 295 40 27%

/ d. p. r/ ]9 g0 X0 g, O2 W9 ]# PSep 2007 5030 2214 515 426,984 390,000 303 41 23%
* v1 n+ C' y" h. j6 x
Aug 2007 4656 2108 635 429,889 395,000 314 36 30%

Jul 2007
+ F: ^* {7 y5 B0 l NA
( u5 z  x+ R0 {+ R1 w" n# |1 A/ `- p 2328
717
442,752
) N: D" B$ x- J' i 410,000
320
28
31%
& c# Q6 s* c4 \$ z$ n
( V. \" T/ h9 i, ~4 {5 sJun 2007
/ I* O: |* G) \5 ^3 V9 ]1 \4 V NA
2661
2 @! T+ ?+ `  | 1011
5 x. u$ F* Y* R+ o 442,817
# r! p% T3 u0 L* R3 A0 ~ 409,000
1 C2 t5 R) |+ M8 L 328
! ^) F% N" \$ h4 O. b  M 22
38%

May 2007
, W& h( K- Z: t7 S* q  \ NA
2288
1261
451,216
415,000
0 j# A6 a) n7 A' A* O$ C 322
2 ]  W1 N/ |, A8 o: o9 U! T' O& o' A 19
7 p- }5 q3 z, u 55%

紫光

存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
+ U8 ~8 u2 G4 V7 |: u) \# _* X鉴定完毕！

WST

看来，存货似已见顶。
) r$ P) a$ [% i( v这几天，在街上又见现金收购房子的广告。

yj151

景之白干

原帖由 紫光 于 2007-10-16 22:03 发表
8 z1 v( |# T, ?7 h" C0 e存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
8 @; U5 D6 P; ]3 ^0 G+ X4 v* O7 s鉴定完毕！

3 k, o/ j; I( G% y( b) f
用十天的数据来和30天的比较，鉴定结果可靠吗？

Z

1）房价持续下跌，每尺从303跌到295。
2）成交房里大房子比重上升，使得每尺单价下跌但总的中位价上升。
3）存量惊人。每年秋冬，存量都会锐减。但现在是持平。考虑到季节因素，存量其实是增加了。

Z

原帖由 紫光 于 2007-10-16 22:03 发表
& \9 @* m. x) q, T/ J/ X2 B! o& Z存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
鉴定完毕！

呵呵，太不专业了吧。

, _* m2 r5 ]( E  |+ V新存量 = 旧存量 + 新列量 - 新销量 - 下市量

' N/ K0 h$ O, B就是说， 存量变化 = 新存量 - 旧存量 = 新列量 - 新销量 - 下市量 = 678 -185 - 下市量

( s( h/ U; T% _% l- c% X7 ]" O) h这里面我们没有下市量的数据。你简单的回避新增的678和未知的下市量，你的算法也太粗糙了。

QWE321

Don't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

judyzh

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 08:21 发表
Don't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

" C% o7 e( y, h
4 J3 _3 D  E( {/ ?! A# }

紫光

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 08:21 发表
Don't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

3 r9 x/ s& A; g% i2 G( @( ]+ d' V

QWE321

In average sale 3000 per month, but last 6 months, the sales between 1000 to 2000.
* T$ R9 u2 W' B6 h8 w& r8 v) {Is the mean there are other 6000 potential buyers there?
2 K, \9 u/ P! J$ Y5 U; V: U$ \How about all these potential buyers start taking their action?
. y! L* B/ z; S) m4 R4 a7 h$ I' bThat is what i say half full or half empty.
good luck for people seeking their house.

水管工

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 10:09 发表
In average sale 3000 per month, but last 6 months, the sales between 1000 to 2000.
Is the mean there are other 6000 potential buyers there?
How about all these potential buyers start taking the ...

$ ~8 i" n; G6 k& @  DI think a lot of investors and speculators are quitting from the market, it is too hard for them to make money. Instead, they are dumping their houses now to make a profit.

WST

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-16 16:13 发表
Edmonton Single Family Home
MLS Statistics(Unofficial)
Includes Edmonton, St Albert, Sherwood Park, Spruce Grove, Stony Plain
Note: These areas do not coincide with the criteria used by the  ...

; ^! f. P: b4 {QWE321:　这些数据来源于何处？是否可靠？又无网站连接?

QWE321

http://www.bobtruman.com/Edmonton_SFH_stats/page_1918017.html

小曲

原帖由 水管工 于 2007-10-17 10:23 发表
  Q" Q' g5 u$ Q9 X2 W% ^+ X
" {9 v8 H4 e( M  f
( a, G  x  r3 V; e6 K+ \# X; w& J# {0 mI think a lot of investors and speculators are quitting from the market, it is too hard for them to make money. Instead, they are dumping their houses now to make a profit.

WST

原帖由 Z 于 2007-10-17 07:36 发表
; ~! N' o. O7 S1）房价持续下跌，每尺从303跌到295。
2 L$ @" i% W, k2）成交房里大房子比重上升，使得每尺单价下跌但总的中位价上升。
4 o; k  P8 c, h/ d9 t3）存量惊人。每年秋冬，存量都会锐减。但现在是持平。考虑到季节因素，存量其实是增加了。

6 n/ Q/ G- \' F9 n- \+ D
下半年，存量通常会持续增加，以卡城为例，参考下图：



' ]' Y$ d# y* c/ X8 G$ ^只有去年例外，存量在年末锐减。

WST

上图为days inventory 和 总存量有不同。总存量在年末的确大减。
" p- {, B9 D1 j) P看来，观察days inventory 更重要。