Single Family info update Oct 1-10

QWE321

Edmonton Single Family Home
. l" ~* P, w5 k9 v5 lMLS Statistics(Unofficial)
Includes Edmonton, St Albert, Sherwood Park, Spruce Grove, Stony Plain
% A1 g% f% F, ]1 uNote: These areas do not coincide with the criteria used by the Edmonton Real Estate Board

Date      Inventory  New Listings Added  Sales  30-Day Avg Price 30-Day Median Price SP/SF DOM Sales/NewListing Ratio  
5 T$ H, q% `6 x5 o( X
Oct 1-10 4879 678 185 429,254 394,000 295 40 27%

3 `' s: g. r1 e9 {Sep 2007 5030 2214 515 426,984 390,000 303 41 23%
/ B, e# a" X2 L8 Z6 R: F. M
Aug 2007 4656 2108 635 429,889 395,000 314 36 30%

Jul 2007
" P1 ~% i7 A8 V6 [) y9 W NA
1 S; M2 o( ~; x% m1 ]7 \: x- \ 2328
717
442,752
410,000
- E, V* r0 U7 b) q5 t' O$ B5 ]/ Y 320
, ]7 V3 I8 }3 ?, A 28
5 D+ P$ w3 J/ l: q. S' | 31%

Jun 2007
9 o) S8 S! L, }) @& c; N; B NA
, O- |& D4 C! ]1 W$ O 2661
4 T8 q3 Z1 _/ m 1011
% C6 \$ l! x! _1 a! D 442,817
4 h+ e  N5 l$ K# \8 J 409,000
328
% @" b$ S6 k5 b5 O" S 22
5 a% Z3 S6 i9 D' v4 [ 38%

May 2007
NA
2288
% D4 t3 H: O8 c) h 1261
451,216
0 w, o3 B; t/ X0 _# \4 M$ J 415,000
0 B) x& j* @( L 322
19
: c' Z) @, ]. c8 I" z( d 55%

紫光

存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
鉴定完毕！

WST

看来，存货似已见顶。
这几天，在街上又见现金收购房子的广告。

yj151

景之白干

原帖由 紫光 于 2007-10-16 22:03 发表
9 n: ?1 q' I  n3 b6 O! j存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
鉴定完毕！

* u' h! v, P- e; A! f& w# r
" j7 P& z5 v; u0 d$ c7 [* G用十天的数据来和30天的比较，鉴定结果可靠吗？

Z

1）房价持续下跌，每尺从303跌到295。
2 r/ N) p% {1 [1 @0 V3 T8 c2）成交房里大房子比重上升，使得每尺单价下跌但总的中位价上升。
7 C. X! H; ]. v9 v7 S3）存量惊人。每年秋冬，存量都会锐减。但现在是持平。考虑到季节因素，存量其实是增加了。

Z

原帖由 紫光 于 2007-10-16 22:03 发表
$ c2 L9 E% O  R; j( o" O9 i; R) V存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
鉴定完毕！

9 A) P# D$ D% o; C
呵呵，太不专业了吧。
; R/ l. L8 E1 C* C
新存量 = 旧存量 + 新列量 - 新销量 - 下市量

$ }* Q5 R  r$ m3 P. S6 u7 C就是说， 存量变化 = 新存量 - 旧存量 = 新列量 - 新销量 - 下市量 = 678 -185 - 下市量
) T3 H3 V' U1 L
这里面我们没有下市量的数据。你简单的回避新增的678和未知的下市量，你的算法也太粗糙了。

QWE321

Don't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

judyzh

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 08:21 发表
% Q" E; T: _) s- FDon't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

5 ~* Q* C, c4 n; T  P# a9 ~
6 K3 s, E1 }8 W7 l

紫光

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 08:21 发表
Don't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

; o( M7 Q- T; K3 k# u$ D3 n

QWE321

In average sale 3000 per month, but last 6 months, the sales between 1000 to 2000.
Is the mean there are other 6000 potential buyers there?
2 p5 {! E: O% i* i5 q9 P5 T' tHow about all these potential buyers start taking their action?
That is what i say half full or half empty.
good luck for people seeking their house.

水管工

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 10:09 发表
2 L3 g- e2 V8 L6 U$ \' P. Z6 XIn average sale 3000 per month, but last 6 months, the sales between 1000 to 2000.
Is the mean there are other 6000 potential buyers there?
How about all these potential buyers start taking the ...

6 V' B* [/ x  D" JI think a lot of investors and speculators are quitting from the market, it is too hard for them to make money. Instead, they are dumping their houses now to make a profit.

WST

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-16 16:13 发表
Edmonton Single Family Home
( N4 \& {3 I/ I1 WMLS Statistics(Unofficial)
Includes Edmonton, St Albert, Sherwood Park, Spruce Grove, Stony Plain
/ r; d" ?9 r: Y8 |" D/ b; p0 eNote: These areas do not coincide with the criteria used by the  ...

QWE321:　这些数据来源于何处？是否可靠？又无网站连接?

QWE321

http://www.bobtruman.com/Edmonton_SFH_stats/page_1918017.html

小曲

原帖由 水管工 于 2007-10-17 10:23 发表
* t( |) P8 B: Y6 \& u9 ?2 {' D1 M
2 m; j4 a" ?4 _8 J% ^7 H
I think a lot of investors and speculators are quitting from the market, it is too hard for them to make money. Instead, they are dumping their houses now to make a profit.

6 T4 [7 I2 a6 ]5 ?+ `

WST

原帖由 Z 于 2007-10-17 07:36 发表
1）房价持续下跌，每尺从303跌到295。
2）成交房里大房子比重上升，使得每尺单价下跌但总的中位价上升。
1 ]  T4 Y5 U$ a! c3）存量惊人。每年秋冬，存量都会锐减。但现在是持平。考虑到季节因素，存量其实是增加了。

7 _: Z* H- k4 O0 m  @
  ?3 Z) b5 e7 S  W4 O, i6 m5 G, o下半年，存量通常会持续增加，以卡城为例，参考下图：

1 X$ y4 |6 C3 G% X4 r% `, ~, I& l
3 U8 Z0 ^7 Z3 ]1 h8 W
只有去年例外，存量在年末锐减。

WST

上图为days inventory 和 总存量有不同。总存量在年末的确大减。
% E5 F! D$ H: E+ ~看来，观察days inventory 更重要。