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Oilsands an emerging global growth star
ExxonMobil forecast predicts output of four million barrels a day by 2030
Gordon Jaremko, The Edmonton Journal
Published: 2:37 am
- y$ g3 L3 R" U" x' _EDMONTON - As oil leaps towards a new landmark high of $100 US a barrel, the world's top investor-owned producer has singled out Alberta as an emerging global star of production growth.
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Oilsands output will multiply fourfold to more than four million barrels daily by 2030, ExxonMobil Corp. predicts in a new international industry outlook report. And that forecast errs on the conservative side by projecting "fundamentals" of demand and supply trends instead of relying on prices to stay sky-high, ExxonMobil spokesman Allan Jeffers said Tuesday.

  |% y, [+ \- h, a5 YOil jumped to $96.67 a barrel, up $2.69 in New York trading Tuesday on fears of global supply disruptions after storms battered North Sea production platforms and guerrillas attacked a pipeline in Yemen.
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- h0 n0 s+ V: v7 p+ iGasoline prices in Edmonton were 99.9 cents per litre at many stations on Tuesday.
# T; u. h$ M: p' M5 \5 jLarry Wong, The Journal
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3 E( |/ a" b1 }/ }8 d: yEdmonton refinery postings for Alberta output Tuesday ranged from $60.74 for low-grade heavy crude to $91.11 for premium oilsands synthetic production. The Canadian benchmarks are translations of international prices, adjusted for pipeline tolls and currency exchange rates.
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ExxonMobil's high oilsands expectations are realistic and reasonable, said Bob Dunbar, an Alberta industry veteran whose Strategy West Inc. specializes in the field.
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6 u% x% v  \) R) T  Q/ _: I8 D! hOutput from the northern bitumen belt would grow to six million barrels a day if all known projects were built on their announced schedules, Dunbar said.

While no one believes the current spike will last, the looming new record high is seen as confirming that a new era of premium prices has arrived to stay, he said.
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: r' c0 ~+ _- w% A- b" YWhen the oilsands rush began in the late 1990s developers only relied on markets to stay in a range of $20 to $30 a barrel. To be profitable, new projects today count on sustained averages in a higher band of $60 to $70, Dunbar estimated.

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