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Attention Real Estate Reporters: 6 g2 W8 q2 f0 F& a# _& \
1 R/ k1 p' `0 R) y; ?Despite US housing woes Canadian real estate remains upbeat
* {& R. S9 b/ y# I, y) {- \) _% H TORONTO, Nov. 5 /CNW/ - Leading real estate experts are predicting the US% ~3 q) m, m; J8 b) v
commercial real estate market will slow in 2008 and follow a similar pattern
' R) |8 c7 G1 r* |6 L' E: l) C4 Mas the current residential market. However, according to the annual Emerging
7 O [; r6 J) S: _Trends in Real Estate 2008 report, released by PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC)2 S/ o* n+ i8 G
and the Urban Land Institute (ULI), their Canadian counterparts are much more
3 B. ^# I9 e, U* l; R) o5 ?4 Vupbeat.
$ Y n" w# v, I$ j9 | Now in its 29th year, Emerging Trends is the oldest, most highly regarded
* q1 s. b! N1 [, Mannual industry outlook for the real estate industry. The report reflects
" ^3 A" L( ~+ Z; y. _7 Tinterviews with and surveys of more than 600 of the industry's leading real
8 P& x4 n p4 I# h/ w, b/ Testate experts, including investors, developers, property company/ g2 W" W# {( A$ U
representatives, lenders, brokers and consultants in both Canada and the US.: O5 n% x1 z, w
Other versions of this report are conducted in countries around the world
Q' z# I6 U2 C8 lincluding Asia Pacific and Europe.
& ^$ {( C( M* i$ k2 q According to Chris Potter, PwC partner and leader of the firm's Canadian& T' [7 O: B% b! T
Real Estate Tax practice, Canada benefits from a more conservative investment/ {% S3 `1 P. N0 S$ h0 h
environment than the US. "In Canada, institution-dominated markets appear to
6 k% W; h0 \0 J5 ]be avoiding 'transaction mania', but real estate values have reached record' M* f/ l. v1 i& E1 n
highs and a strong economy has accelerated tenant demand for space."& R' t. M1 a9 t. r6 x r# _$ o
According to American respondents, a healthy correction south of the
$ r! N/ F5 W" X) d% N# b1 @9 cborder will likely bypass long-term investors but penalize late-to-the-game! [' [- e' X) R5 ]( a# R; f+ a
speculators and overleveraged buyers. Canadian respondents to the survey; P' H: j6 C9 `4 z
remain positive about sidestepping any serious impacts of this possible US
. S1 E: b( k, Bcorrection. Close to 36% view their prospects for profitability in 2008 to be
$ r* X) I- y4 r2 Dvery good and a further 22.4% say they're excellent.! ~- K$ ?2 L. E
The strongest areas of real estate business activity for Canadian
4 M) [; ^ n/ i" j8 }1 X. ~respondents is predicted to be within real estate services, followed by
2 r; Z* w, I" J5 Y2 n* Hcommercial/multifamily development and homebuilding/residential land
4 I; K6 U! U1 Odevelopment. All property sectors share positive prospects across the country
8 ]6 ^. l: ?/ a1 V9 I* P. qespecially industrial and retail with respondents, on average, stating) r; s) M8 D5 K
development prospects are expected to be modestly good to good. The
h3 y; L3 o2 B& m7 U+ I$ _residential for-sale market is also expected to fair well, but might need to
1 V5 E4 B0 e* Mtake a breather as homebuilders cannot keep up with the current pace and1 y1 s6 M s/ z# m) l
single-family housing looks overpriced.
/ t5 x. s6 X T8 `1 N: G1 l Office stock is seeing limited inventories and dated product fill up with
- J, A, \% ^% e" L( w& Y/ ctenants. Except for Montreal, where office vacancies are nearing 9%. Canadian! }& i4 ]( J1 N4 U G
metropolitan areas boast below 5% vacancies, and rents have room to push8 i7 J i, d/ h) G6 X# F
higher. The survey is also showing that costs and land scarcity is limiting
3 p. P- P' t! D m. Nnew development. Hotel investment and development prospects are modestly good,
( P2 p, k' E2 {and most respondents rate this sector either a buy or a hold. Rental
2 H e- E8 W: p- w4 D$ o3 kapartments are doing well in major cities with high immigration flows. Primary
& r# r3 w5 K% d* Wwestern cities - Vancouver, Calgary, and Edmonton - are veering toward housing
- n( u+ G7 ~" p- Rshortages as workers, attracted by a plethora of well-paying jobs, pour into
0 a1 U d; W7 Q& l, ~! ~' pthe energy zone. Apartment occupancies are soaring in these areas. Development" }9 g O5 z6 y' f: u/ Q+ }
in other regions remains difficult because of costs and land scarcity.
. I% Z. {, E/ W4 S0 t/ C6 W( P- @ H" i! m1 I# \, K q+ u/ n
Canadian Markets to Watch
9 F" T2 Y+ @$ I' k& N" [0 {
9 U. h' ?! @0 M2 M3 J! \* i The report comments on how Canadians like to live and work in central' X1 s$ F D2 S) C+ {) E
cities, as long as they can afford it. If housing is too pricey in 24-hour: E7 p9 ]$ `4 j$ q: Z o
neighbourhoods, people move to inner-ring suburbs or beyond and commute back
$ O2 a1 Z9 C* F2 w4 a( [* rinto the cores. Investors, especially the institutions, are concentrated in
- s: x6 W# N5 C* v4 {$ l& edowntown areas too. Planners and developers focus on infill and more vertical; B4 q" K: [4 U( [, J' i$ e% S; Q
projects, which reinforce the urban cores. The hot-growth energy cities out5 ?$ q# E* D' }
west - Calgary and Edmonton - score the highest ratings for investment
" m0 s B0 D8 \( l( R. y: i& mprospects, development, and for-sale housing, although it is not certain
6 Y0 E8 o, X2 ywhether the recent announcements on royalties will have any effect on this.5 s8 l' [' Y- m( w
Toronto, Canada's premier global pathway city, and Vancouver also have high
- E) r3 R6 b0 Y6 x( Wratings. Ottawa and Montreal follow, with Halifax lagging.
3 J2 k& G8 x* H' f+ P3 `# A1 V$ \, o1 u2 i8 T
Calgary/Edmonton
" ~9 H1 R5 k. b' i$ H3 V+ }0 s% L+ {
Calgary is the Canada's "resource" capital and North America's number-one: |: V, V; C$ F
boomtown. Survey respondents foresee strong buys for all sectors: 53.5% give a4 g* ]: H" u7 D
buy recommendation for Hotel Property, 52.8% for Industrial/Distribution,
V* |% s# D& b: P48.1% for Retail and Apartment Residential and 44.6% for Office Property.
) k4 c( N& x9 h- q1 S9 W$ sFurthermore, on average the majority of respondents see Calgary For-Sale
5 r' S) O; t0 j4 M0 G6 ^4 o/ |% r! JHomebuilding prospects as very good. Edmonton is closely mimicking the; \: \1 Y8 \0 P8 B
Calgary-style growth wave and as long as demand for energy resources stays
# o' x; u9 V3 istrong, this market will continue to do well.
7 G9 P V8 f; B3 R* w |3 p+ X7 Z3 v C9 `# `0 n' c: c# I( Q
Vancouver
. d9 p! H2 a4 k8 Q$ b; \5 ]) T0 H$ S4 i
$ b8 p/ s0 J5 B4 T$ j) |7 D: p Vancouver's diversified economy is roaring, the mining industry is
, o+ v3 B) g5 c7 ?* obooming and the city provides a large port and a high-tech center. Outrageous
& f/ g: `* |+ m1 G) L; \$ {# @real estate prices frustrate homebuyers and commercial investors and the
6 F; }( q! x/ S7 v: R5 E% Bmarket is extremely hard to crack. The 2010 Winter Olympic Games is also a$ f" l6 l* U- `3 J
growth driver and accordingly 44.7% of respondents give Vancouver a buy3 B& n9 e7 r8 k, u( C
recommendation for Hotel Property. A further 43.5% give a buy Retail, 41.3%1 }1 m$ N8 P" S3 u+ J* {
for Industrial/Distribution and 36.7% for Office Property followed by 34.1%
6 G" s- O' n1 ~( n2 L+ u% _9 Kfor Apartment Residential property. Vancouver also ranks in the good to very, W5 N7 c# b# g6 y* a/ b; c
good mark for for-sale homebuilding prospects.
' c b1 j) a" k
+ F8 x4 y% n! w5 V Toronto
/ d5 s8 {5 E/ }" j
( x1 A2 V$ d" L& b" j1 W1 m& t% i4 A Toronto ranks as a major global pathway destination, 24-hour city, and; R7 n0 k* i8 Q: G/ N6 Q6 P
manufacturing hub. Compared with other national financial centers, the city is) W& Q+ i- R$ `- w
relatively inexpensive. However, the rising loonie is hurting manufacturing
( X* v O1 a! o6 Oindustries, and clouds over the US economy threaten to stall out momentum.
3 f0 V. M: Q! Z4 W. s7 D. s2 d6 MThree new office towers are under construction, adding 3 million new square- D( Z( y5 l2 @2 |7 }1 B$ S1 T; t$ }: \0 z
feet of office space. Notably, Office (49.1%), Industrial (46.2%) and
: M1 D" o2 i7 S+ gApartments (40.8%) are given solid buys.: v& ~) I6 d. y6 \7 n; T
; {+ {: R2 A# l# j0 {9 e Montreal
; l5 e( i9 O- R8 P4 J+ z j; u: u: J0 G& H% o0 a
Montreal continues to face concerns about market stability and overall
) |* D/ D# V, ?% u9 Mgrowth prospects as major companies no longer choose it as a place to set up4 ~7 Z( ^) ~: C: I+ V+ k8 w1 C
shop. But, plenty of government offices fill space. Of the larger cities in
" b8 b# [/ D! z# a' LCanada, Montreal ranks lowest as a "buy" recommendation in all real estate4 J2 Q1 T: T+ Q
sectors. However, respondents generally rated all Montreal real estate sectors0 H \* g. B- I2 T% M
higher as a "hold" recommendation.% i' I* x7 C) X
4 ]% N0 R8 l; R5 T9 \
The report notes that best bets for investors for the coming years5 F# A2 _ r: G! Z
include a focus on all property sectors in the high-growth western energy+ t+ }+ Q- B0 s0 B
markets, hold on central business district office space, develop infill condos8 L g w! [6 W% i2 x f, O% z0 \
near subways stops in Toronto, buy infill sites wherever you can and invest
9 x" F3 j8 G: Joverseas. Potter concludes, "Domestic opportunities are too limited at current% f4 i3 s* `9 U M
prices."9 f8 c; s7 n* C u I
A copy of Emerging Trends in Real Estate(R) 2008 is available at
v p% q3 m, V( v7 swww.uli.org or www.pwc.com/imre.
3 Q7 Q3 |2 I) ^, l. Z, A. {( K D. Y- N7 n
About PricewaterhouseCoopers" e) q1 ]. |6 r' D+ ]8 E* N! y
1 ]$ M2 S$ D. I
PricewaterhouseCoopers (www.pwc.com) provides industry-focused assurance,+ G. c+ Q* p4 ]* q3 c& P8 z
tax and advisory services to build public trust and enhance value for its5 U5 y7 b% t: Z1 l: R0 x* _( a
clients and their stakeholders. More than 140,000 people in 149 countries* d3 s0 F% A/ V* t% p2 g" Z& f' I
across our network share their thinking, experience and solutions to develop
7 Y3 _& x1 A4 ]0 ^9 ]1 _fresh perspectives and practical advice. Now celebrating 100 years of; }( B. k) G1 r
excellence in Canada, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP (www.pwc.com/ca) and its; c6 H! A7 v; v* z4 s
related entities have more than 5,200 partners and staff in offices across the
$ D9 p6 c$ X: y |/ Wcountry.
% ]; d" T+ k0 [; O "PricewaterhouseCoopers" refers to PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, an Ontario
4 k! |' p. \1 R0 j0 X b: ~6 ], Glimited liability partnership, or, as the context requires, the& x: N# p7 {6 Y* U6 j9 E8 C* w0 C
PricewaterhouseCoopers global network or other member firms of the network,1 |- g' g& p+ w: ?4 K
each of which is a separate and independent legal entity.
1 A8 V$ n# g' s& D Y$ o% s y' a2 p9 A, ~
About the Urban Land Institute
0 K4 {5 A; y1 X( ]1 ^! S+ }, g' o: R& X2 q4 j
The Urban Land Institute (www.uli.org) is a nonprofit education and3 v, n- |/ n' [4 s2 Y
research institute supported by its members. Its mission is to provide
7 I" }- c% G8 |, W1 H6 R( W* T+ C* }leadership in the responsible use of land and in sustaining and creating2 y: s) w# k& T5 A6 b
thriving communities worldwide. Established in 1936, the Institute has more( U) Z: E. @ Q* x* o& [# R+ ^. b
than 38,000 members representing all aspects of land use and development7 g( D& L- }( B* t; f. o
disciplines.
6 A# o! O5 X8 w; R2 C* ] t) [: u The Urban Land Institute is an active and growing organization in Canada.
5 J- u& h* x5 k' o$ `! U5 BWith nearly 700 members across the country, Canada's first ULI District2 @0 n8 I/ e% V4 A6 l
Council was established in Toronto in 2005 and a second District Council is
* G% x) p4 u3 Bnow being formed in British Columbia. The Toronto District Council will be
. ~; y5 y( B" b+ b, ^/ P& h2 vhosting a special event on Emerging Trends in Real Estate on November 20th,
' Y5 c3 [" G" s4 R3 K4 @4 P$ q2007, featuring Jonathan Miller, the principal author of the report, Blake
# ~8 P8 j$ z/ D, v. vHutcheson, President of CB Richard Ellis Canada Ltd., and George Carras,7 B" k+ b% j1 u$ n F, ?) b
President of RealNet Canada Inc. For more information on this event, please# @ S# H5 R7 a8 w5 a3 a
call the Toronto District Council Coordinator at (647) 258-0017, or look on
' r" g% |. c/ I+ H( `the web at www.uli.org/events/index.cfm?id=3066.; Q2 P4 {3 \) ^0 ~. Y2 ^# q
+ `) Q# Z' b2 Y- W$ c
. ? r! g- x/ i# W4 g3 E/ G" `9 Z9 F( ]
For further information: Carolyn Forest, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP,% \' F* [# z1 z j n# h( h2 [7 r! F
(416) 814-5730, carolyn.forest@ca.pwc.com. w7 ^4 [/ n2 A$ v
http://www.newswire.ca/en/releas ... r2007/05/c4080.html
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