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Attention Real Estate Reporters:
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/ S' H9 q e3 ?$ ?) q* PDespite US housing woes Canadian real estate remains upbeat / O0 I3 P& u+ J) H5 H- q( O
TORONTO, Nov. 5 /CNW/ - Leading real estate experts are predicting the US
8 B/ u( x( H+ {7 m2 acommercial real estate market will slow in 2008 and follow a similar pattern% |% G( U% K& B9 A d1 f& b
as the current residential market. However, according to the annual Emerging
7 P, f7 s# R; x& CTrends in Real Estate 2008 report, released by PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC)
; O$ X4 Y0 w4 \5 N/ B: f8 @4 m1 K. eand the Urban Land Institute (ULI), their Canadian counterparts are much more- x2 m6 Z' B) s5 `- g/ y
upbeat.
, a' M8 \6 e1 _ Now in its 29th year, Emerging Trends is the oldest, most highly regarded
/ t0 T& g3 O4 w7 x( Rannual industry outlook for the real estate industry. The report reflects( w5 h( ?1 l$ p/ L$ G% ^, l
interviews with and surveys of more than 600 of the industry's leading real6 {1 z: o1 h/ {
estate experts, including investors, developers, property company x' w) `7 P: Y% r* D/ E- F
representatives, lenders, brokers and consultants in both Canada and the US.3 o- r2 ~' ~& f/ c$ c' ~( C
Other versions of this report are conducted in countries around the world
4 Y! m6 t- v' f8 U( K* Mincluding Asia Pacific and Europe.
5 x( M/ ?) M7 k/ s) S$ g According to Chris Potter, PwC partner and leader of the firm's Canadian) ~# m& y+ u2 P9 Z9 K. |
Real Estate Tax practice, Canada benefits from a more conservative investment: S$ {8 V5 ?1 |% F6 s$ V
environment than the US. "In Canada, institution-dominated markets appear to
+ `/ m# I8 D% I( Ube avoiding 'transaction mania', but real estate values have reached record
" m6 N2 |5 y( `% S- D1 bhighs and a strong economy has accelerated tenant demand for space."
+ ^9 N5 R' S# M) m# @2 V; u According to American respondents, a healthy correction south of the
4 z( K* d& }% n2 h. Y @4 y. b% Gborder will likely bypass long-term investors but penalize late-to-the-game
# o1 C8 U+ c/ Rspeculators and overleveraged buyers. Canadian respondents to the survey% h6 r- [+ k* W1 L7 P
remain positive about sidestepping any serious impacts of this possible US) }" E/ }- K4 p& q6 u: c% u- |
correction. Close to 36% view their prospects for profitability in 2008 to be/ k9 ^% X: r/ Y. D# D1 F' X- h
very good and a further 22.4% say they're excellent.) n$ j9 H9 I }; [7 E8 @4 L2 n
The strongest areas of real estate business activity for Canadian8 r3 ]" W* y. D3 \0 W
respondents is predicted to be within real estate services, followed by
. L8 W& J. |; icommercial/multifamily development and homebuilding/residential land
* A8 e0 G+ I2 R3 m: G% H: F. Fdevelopment. All property sectors share positive prospects across the country
( p. C! Z* J: qespecially industrial and retail with respondents, on average, stating/ I; a, M2 x) T9 k5 W' g
development prospects are expected to be modestly good to good. The% f0 k# z+ D6 }5 Q2 P1 _
residential for-sale market is also expected to fair well, but might need to
5 v$ P4 W5 i% a4 Z0 Y& ?' ztake a breather as homebuilders cannot keep up with the current pace and* T4 @. X# g2 {& y# ~4 ]0 L5 Y
single-family housing looks overpriced.
: b+ |, z! \! U+ G Office stock is seeing limited inventories and dated product fill up with
" S3 I; v+ A! u* @& a9 e# \tenants. Except for Montreal, where office vacancies are nearing 9%. Canadian
2 u s& f* p4 v* o, xmetropolitan areas boast below 5% vacancies, and rents have room to push' v4 d9 c4 \" c
higher. The survey is also showing that costs and land scarcity is limiting: A, G) i0 O7 ]) `% ^" J6 P5 U
new development. Hotel investment and development prospects are modestly good,
" _$ P+ O/ Z4 q4 |+ Band most respondents rate this sector either a buy or a hold. Rental
" l# @" R$ @6 p4 Y. _apartments are doing well in major cities with high immigration flows. Primary
9 ]3 ~& N( s7 \: t" zwestern cities - Vancouver, Calgary, and Edmonton - are veering toward housing
1 Y; }. d H$ M4 p/ R. Mshortages as workers, attracted by a plethora of well-paying jobs, pour into% D8 U7 e! L5 y/ R0 o
the energy zone. Apartment occupancies are soaring in these areas. Development
: r7 x. Z4 U; r' g' p6 O# lin other regions remains difficult because of costs and land scarcity.
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5 t* @, l; i& q+ U! L Canadian Markets to Watch
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The report comments on how Canadians like to live and work in central
& d, o. X2 B1 C$ u: Jcities, as long as they can afford it. If housing is too pricey in 24-hour
0 c/ V* C0 O& Z( V1 e9 u3 ?neighbourhoods, people move to inner-ring suburbs or beyond and commute back! J, G y9 x" z
into the cores. Investors, especially the institutions, are concentrated in, f+ d$ j( {% E/ R. P" A
downtown areas too. Planners and developers focus on infill and more vertical. n0 E/ R& G7 ?& k" w
projects, which reinforce the urban cores. The hot-growth energy cities out# D0 O- B4 I6 Z% {3 m- X) H( t
west - Calgary and Edmonton - score the highest ratings for investment# L' o g- b1 N+ p0 y
prospects, development, and for-sale housing, although it is not certain
5 d8 d% P$ d; P# N+ l( |; fwhether the recent announcements on royalties will have any effect on this./ X2 K3 T4 h, ^! D: c1 T( R$ J& L; p
Toronto, Canada's premier global pathway city, and Vancouver also have high% z; Q" S( |) A! t
ratings. Ottawa and Montreal follow, with Halifax lagging.% ]5 s2 A0 B7 `* X8 _- Y. _6 e, o
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Calgary/Edmonton6 S' W# Q7 i. g! |/ S8 h
7 @/ e+ y6 o. |( H9 B, Y( b( ]. J Calgary is the Canada's "resource" capital and North America's number-one* B m: [7 J+ R
boomtown. Survey respondents foresee strong buys for all sectors: 53.5% give a
' ^+ d- m0 L" r+ vbuy recommendation for Hotel Property, 52.8% for Industrial/Distribution,
w( Z! E6 [6 C. ?48.1% for Retail and Apartment Residential and 44.6% for Office Property.% D3 _) T. {) i3 ]
Furthermore, on average the majority of respondents see Calgary For-Sale
9 x8 M1 P& Q5 n- Z# Q$ ]Homebuilding prospects as very good. Edmonton is closely mimicking the2 B' L! U8 v, N: ^: @' C* K$ J
Calgary-style growth wave and as long as demand for energy resources stays
% T- E9 [9 g" e3 s8 [2 B; x& J! Ystrong, this market will continue to do well.
$ r- a% m3 y9 m H- _# ~# c# t% `+ }* L" ^
Vancouver
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Vancouver's diversified economy is roaring, the mining industry is# H% B* Q0 V* [, \5 ?5 `
booming and the city provides a large port and a high-tech center. Outrageous3 L9 B! F% e3 h& `( c& a" K' e
real estate prices frustrate homebuyers and commercial investors and the
+ s# B- U0 C( s3 Z R' c Kmarket is extremely hard to crack. The 2010 Winter Olympic Games is also a8 Y+ @5 g, s1 A1 v
growth driver and accordingly 44.7% of respondents give Vancouver a buy) }+ u0 I, L1 C
recommendation for Hotel Property. A further 43.5% give a buy Retail, 41.3%/ V, ~5 Z3 E6 o
for Industrial/Distribution and 36.7% for Office Property followed by 34.1%) p. v+ u- V) ? Q: a5 t4 O
for Apartment Residential property. Vancouver also ranks in the good to very
6 I: `) h- d7 D, Cgood mark for for-sale homebuilding prospects.
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/ d1 E0 V" L8 v, x0 J. p Toronto5 o& v( h, a2 R9 k' f( _& Y) c& N* }; P
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Toronto ranks as a major global pathway destination, 24-hour city, and
1 f: R! E! ^$ e5 x+ l; C6 Q+ gmanufacturing hub. Compared with other national financial centers, the city is
! F6 K- Y8 v; D& erelatively inexpensive. However, the rising loonie is hurting manufacturing9 h, r, n$ t5 m$ E
industries, and clouds over the US economy threaten to stall out momentum." |* A- A0 X5 {5 k% s f
Three new office towers are under construction, adding 3 million new square; h( d: |3 y8 C2 n1 v1 `
feet of office space. Notably, Office (49.1%), Industrial (46.2%) and5 E/ @3 g0 q0 G8 {
Apartments (40.8%) are given solid buys.
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Montreal
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- ^4 A( \' j* H% @$ D Montreal continues to face concerns about market stability and overall
1 F, r. w, O& C% N' @4 W) a, [/ ygrowth prospects as major companies no longer choose it as a place to set up6 @+ O) E9 R0 {+ D
shop. But, plenty of government offices fill space. Of the larger cities in
& b0 s9 ^0 j" X1 G+ XCanada, Montreal ranks lowest as a "buy" recommendation in all real estate5 {4 W$ S: P; @' i: Z9 D0 {, I
sectors. However, respondents generally rated all Montreal real estate sectors7 a3 ?* t q& Y- R
higher as a "hold" recommendation.; @& N2 {1 O' ~5 c4 m! |9 u- [) s
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The report notes that best bets for investors for the coming years
: Z7 S+ h, I2 Q& S O8 |6 binclude a focus on all property sectors in the high-growth western energy! K: ?+ c) g+ T( o- h& q4 j! {
markets, hold on central business district office space, develop infill condos& f8 e$ m# a6 y! H
near subways stops in Toronto, buy infill sites wherever you can and invest
$ F8 W% D6 I" D( qoverseas. Potter concludes, "Domestic opportunities are too limited at current$ o# k! e# z3 e
prices.", b6 r) J2 d, s( h2 L; {
A copy of Emerging Trends in Real Estate(R) 2008 is available at& {; b# I% T$ J4 |4 k+ Q0 f; {
www.uli.org or www.pwc.com/imre.
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About PricewaterhouseCoopers1 u# D# l. Z! E9 m2 t; m* w
* h# c+ `' F5 S PricewaterhouseCoopers (www.pwc.com) provides industry-focused assurance,
+ e" v9 z* S: _, h7 k* Ttax and advisory services to build public trust and enhance value for its$ {; h2 ]$ t& v' f y$ _. e
clients and their stakeholders. More than 140,000 people in 149 countries7 h3 u9 r1 W6 K6 U; w
across our network share their thinking, experience and solutions to develop
5 C4 n1 R) f9 T7 Q3 l5 w9 `fresh perspectives and practical advice. Now celebrating 100 years of
2 _) h8 W4 ?( x3 P! Y7 texcellence in Canada, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP (www.pwc.com/ca) and its( W" E5 D, o: Z' a
related entities have more than 5,200 partners and staff in offices across the
x, p6 g! e3 w3 h! Mcountry.1 s4 z" r$ L+ I
"PricewaterhouseCoopers" refers to PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, an Ontario4 c5 S$ o$ N! Q. z% R, c/ C
limited liability partnership, or, as the context requires, the
2 ?. u# t, L% ^1 @; u$ H1 `PricewaterhouseCoopers global network or other member firms of the network,. W- [ Z0 d& n" l
each of which is a separate and independent legal entity.
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About the Urban Land Institute
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The Urban Land Institute (www.uli.org) is a nonprofit education and- e% b% ^ |2 h8 w1 r- \0 ^8 a2 u
research institute supported by its members. Its mission is to provide
; o, n$ v" v0 N$ g, M" \leadership in the responsible use of land and in sustaining and creating1 F+ q# L6 u/ |+ v! N
thriving communities worldwide. Established in 1936, the Institute has more
) q+ X9 m* R' G! bthan 38,000 members representing all aspects of land use and development
* v8 ~ P J& _( Z& U7 Z) ldisciplines.: \+ g R$ ]& F; D$ A
The Urban Land Institute is an active and growing organization in Canada.# ^( i$ b, U1 ?& b% ~
With nearly 700 members across the country, Canada's first ULI District
$ H7 @$ C9 p+ k1 a, `% o/ [0 fCouncil was established in Toronto in 2005 and a second District Council is
' e8 x, X, V% N: _now being formed in British Columbia. The Toronto District Council will be
8 a7 X( g) D! N. }. S5 Chosting a special event on Emerging Trends in Real Estate on November 20th,4 S2 [9 n) L: O1 ?! B6 T& C0 _
2007, featuring Jonathan Miller, the principal author of the report, Blake
( l0 |+ c8 ?- h- w' W" |- T# X3 @Hutcheson, President of CB Richard Ellis Canada Ltd., and George Carras,& B$ }1 ^# |0 O+ f/ q) Z1 ?0 G/ ?
President of RealNet Canada Inc. For more information on this event, please* f( h' g: m+ G+ k- m0 q4 y
call the Toronto District Council Coordinator at (647) 258-0017, or look on# E7 l0 s$ `8 r
the web at www.uli.org/events/index.cfm?id=3066.2 b8 T( t1 k0 D. g
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For further information: Carolyn Forest, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP,) k. d! p4 p; \5 _
(416) 814-5730, carolyn.forest@ca.pwc.com) m& G. [+ ?. I4 o
http://www.newswire.ca/en/releas ... r2007/05/c4080.html
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