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Attention Real Estate Reporters: , u. w) n4 r1 d0 @ g- V2 s
# i+ ]; j2 z/ }5 s- A L' KDespite US housing woes Canadian real estate remains upbeat 8 u) E) Z' f8 ~9 E/ g
TORONTO, Nov. 5 /CNW/ - Leading real estate experts are predicting the US
1 a5 A4 q1 \. e3 L4 ?commercial real estate market will slow in 2008 and follow a similar pattern( R/ S( E; K' U) i1 j
as the current residential market. However, according to the annual Emerging7 M$ D; K3 r9 O; N5 X
Trends in Real Estate 2008 report, released by PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC)* k9 i3 R3 [) ~* b; a2 v
and the Urban Land Institute (ULI), their Canadian counterparts are much more5 e/ T, N, r/ {9 U+ p: Z
upbeat.3 o y8 |' h. \4 L
Now in its 29th year, Emerging Trends is the oldest, most highly regarded
" a7 k0 w8 ?2 a2 Gannual industry outlook for the real estate industry. The report reflects
1 I9 K- T& A5 \ K+ winterviews with and surveys of more than 600 of the industry's leading real( {3 O/ t( r4 i' T/ V; p
estate experts, including investors, developers, property company; \% e9 X: V( P) z
representatives, lenders, brokers and consultants in both Canada and the US.
$ p7 n: Y/ o3 r9 |. jOther versions of this report are conducted in countries around the world
4 V; ^# w! w( ^& S; E- D; aincluding Asia Pacific and Europe.
. F/ t! p V$ o7 L According to Chris Potter, PwC partner and leader of the firm's Canadian
% k6 a+ y6 g0 F( r# k* lReal Estate Tax practice, Canada benefits from a more conservative investment
4 R& Z7 k3 _7 l/ A9 J! k9 `# Oenvironment than the US. "In Canada, institution-dominated markets appear to+ S8 @4 r: M Q
be avoiding 'transaction mania', but real estate values have reached record
6 a3 h4 k* C- T+ i, Y8 _) Dhighs and a strong economy has accelerated tenant demand for space."8 L/ j* k9 V9 d( `) X6 h
According to American respondents, a healthy correction south of the8 m/ @& X- O/ c1 C2 p+ K5 {( r$ c
border will likely bypass long-term investors but penalize late-to-the-game1 a2 U% c5 p; E; B
speculators and overleveraged buyers. Canadian respondents to the survey
8 Z2 J) g# ?- P; e$ T, l$ V, Kremain positive about sidestepping any serious impacts of this possible US
4 O& Z5 E) D7 c# D/ h% E8 ]correction. Close to 36% view their prospects for profitability in 2008 to be/ ^8 b3 C$ j7 U3 p* R
very good and a further 22.4% say they're excellent.
* V6 X' [9 i/ o: ] The strongest areas of real estate business activity for Canadian: q6 C% g- T9 `
respondents is predicted to be within real estate services, followed by/ V7 ~3 a) f7 A7 {
commercial/multifamily development and homebuilding/residential land
! k4 |. i4 s3 o: _4 Tdevelopment. All property sectors share positive prospects across the country, h6 ?3 L |9 s- e |9 B# D0 g2 ?
especially industrial and retail with respondents, on average, stating
# N& n! f& z2 {" u* |$ o3 M! Rdevelopment prospects are expected to be modestly good to good. The
+ f& F ^9 O* S! {7 v) T5 _, f7 Tresidential for-sale market is also expected to fair well, but might need to
8 F- u+ E7 F% q: |) @5 }4 @take a breather as homebuilders cannot keep up with the current pace and
6 ? L* a1 n1 }: J' c$ @single-family housing looks overpriced.
9 K8 {8 R) W& v; K3 B7 V Office stock is seeing limited inventories and dated product fill up with
$ T3 G" D% F8 z. \$ p+ `7 xtenants. Except for Montreal, where office vacancies are nearing 9%. Canadian
! G- }; f- z8 z8 h- m+ @4 dmetropolitan areas boast below 5% vacancies, and rents have room to push
5 N5 T/ z0 y. A* N4 ~7 ?2 Uhigher. The survey is also showing that costs and land scarcity is limiting
, {; ]! X" G' J9 `% a9 wnew development. Hotel investment and development prospects are modestly good,* w# D6 L* y0 k4 a' k0 ?
and most respondents rate this sector either a buy or a hold. Rental
4 O9 ^5 o4 X! E$ d" Dapartments are doing well in major cities with high immigration flows. Primary
4 Y/ s8 A6 R$ x3 a( qwestern cities - Vancouver, Calgary, and Edmonton - are veering toward housing
8 p: Z! A. [" dshortages as workers, attracted by a plethora of well-paying jobs, pour into8 C4 M/ h; A' b. {" T: d/ E- R
the energy zone. Apartment occupancies are soaring in these areas. Development
$ R- ^& D" ]$ k. M) ~8 Q" Lin other regions remains difficult because of costs and land scarcity.
9 _$ s! D7 F. |* O9 d: ~6 |: n! J) C5 H4 q* f
Canadian Markets to Watch: I _ x, C6 [+ B# K @, |# f
7 d* R5 O' F( Z* W% ^- | The report comments on how Canadians like to live and work in central2 Z. c! k' i \$ Q- b- a/ N: G$ o
cities, as long as they can afford it. If housing is too pricey in 24-hour9 j0 g8 c- z) M( [" j8 s
neighbourhoods, people move to inner-ring suburbs or beyond and commute back6 u$ N7 d; r$ ~' t, L% X/ X
into the cores. Investors, especially the institutions, are concentrated in
- }7 z5 |: d6 y5 x# h; Ndowntown areas too. Planners and developers focus on infill and more vertical
! o1 \' K0 ^# @& v0 Y- ]projects, which reinforce the urban cores. The hot-growth energy cities out6 m. h8 d7 C; {7 C9 q4 }
west - Calgary and Edmonton - score the highest ratings for investment
! F* |5 c0 q8 Y0 ^% \" }prospects, development, and for-sale housing, although it is not certain
9 X T4 `# \( C7 U2 I& v: qwhether the recent announcements on royalties will have any effect on this.$ e& P) ]5 ]- J u
Toronto, Canada's premier global pathway city, and Vancouver also have high
* `9 G3 H3 ^0 t6 @0 Fratings. Ottawa and Montreal follow, with Halifax lagging.) q0 p2 ]9 v4 W% _+ w( u+ z6 h& I
; Q% ~+ i3 ^6 |- u3 f1 f7 @/ u
Calgary/Edmonton* C; q7 o, |7 Q; e2 G! b0 n
" u/ c: e0 C) y7 [' s Calgary is the Canada's "resource" capital and North America's number-one( R. ~6 K4 V; K" r8 `' e
boomtown. Survey respondents foresee strong buys for all sectors: 53.5% give a
& L! Y8 B9 u# G5 Ibuy recommendation for Hotel Property, 52.8% for Industrial/Distribution,
r( }: t; Z, D, b$ I48.1% for Retail and Apartment Residential and 44.6% for Office Property.
! |- j0 G) D) F9 w6 Y- sFurthermore, on average the majority of respondents see Calgary For-Sale
) g( u+ Q* A7 g7 L, W& ZHomebuilding prospects as very good. Edmonton is closely mimicking the
1 V, G v* U" t( @4 TCalgary-style growth wave and as long as demand for energy resources stays
# D/ ?: {2 Q% P. pstrong, this market will continue to do well., h: L1 C9 \* K
4 |7 D3 K. \" h Vancouver
, Q, Q5 s( n6 {/ j! `: i6 B4 l$ M( S" f& P
Vancouver's diversified economy is roaring, the mining industry is' Y6 h. L+ M8 _0 I) l/ c; Y
booming and the city provides a large port and a high-tech center. Outrageous2 C6 _6 w/ p, q- d
real estate prices frustrate homebuyers and commercial investors and the h$ U( o! \' j3 T) X" }4 V
market is extremely hard to crack. The 2010 Winter Olympic Games is also a" Z7 r3 D& a" ]$ f$ I }
growth driver and accordingly 44.7% of respondents give Vancouver a buy
# h& n" A) M9 i3 P9 o! q: Lrecommendation for Hotel Property. A further 43.5% give a buy Retail, 41.3%- ^' Z7 \6 s* V" n& X5 I5 \
for Industrial/Distribution and 36.7% for Office Property followed by 34.1%
! V6 k2 a* P8 q" K- v. i9 Qfor Apartment Residential property. Vancouver also ranks in the good to very0 @; ^' E' |9 F9 T7 `! w
good mark for for-sale homebuilding prospects.) P7 Y# u4 C$ o; e# O. }
0 O2 Z$ t& |9 O: T2 o) q& L- c. b' O Toronto" Z8 i5 Z& h b( e) ^
! \/ r2 y# K& o) I% s, |/ U, x Toronto ranks as a major global pathway destination, 24-hour city, and
7 ?: Z+ q# \2 I7 K4 Lmanufacturing hub. Compared with other national financial centers, the city is+ P! r3 J5 N6 s% b
relatively inexpensive. However, the rising loonie is hurting manufacturing* x' }+ {* R7 `; j/ M+ k
industries, and clouds over the US economy threaten to stall out momentum.
+ L5 N9 u6 B. g# V" V" rThree new office towers are under construction, adding 3 million new square
( Y% G: z! r$ \6 U: Y1 afeet of office space. Notably, Office (49.1%), Industrial (46.2%) and
% `; r4 ~, }7 `2 c+ G; ?Apartments (40.8%) are given solid buys.4 R K2 O- S# z( e+ K
, z( D! |. I& e$ ~9 u% Q
Montreal
1 R$ W+ Z& Q( O- ]6 S s# l5 G' S, q0 Z) ^& L' R
Montreal continues to face concerns about market stability and overall
. m% c$ ?/ p3 `- lgrowth prospects as major companies no longer choose it as a place to set up w, `) \: m& O g" g6 i
shop. But, plenty of government offices fill space. Of the larger cities in4 |& p! l' B3 @ J0 C4 t' ?3 m
Canada, Montreal ranks lowest as a "buy" recommendation in all real estate; Y. l% P+ |! Q2 @ N" r1 D# E
sectors. However, respondents generally rated all Montreal real estate sectors7 M. O' z% K( m; i$ y1 C+ h
higher as a "hold" recommendation.3 J2 G+ f3 y( U. }& L0 v4 P& P: B
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The report notes that best bets for investors for the coming years
( g0 ?7 [: }4 m% Finclude a focus on all property sectors in the high-growth western energy8 f7 H. J( A D( B& ]
markets, hold on central business district office space, develop infill condos
- c7 @, L0 R: c1 o. u4 Znear subways stops in Toronto, buy infill sites wherever you can and invest
1 u3 W, `0 {3 w$ hoverseas. Potter concludes, "Domestic opportunities are too limited at current' m! ^3 q# {4 k% q6 ~% s
prices."" K) F; A% w" D, Q& W9 h' ?' b
A copy of Emerging Trends in Real Estate(R) 2008 is available at+ N0 s) h% @ ]7 r+ m
www.uli.org or www.pwc.com/imre.
6 {. r9 V# S5 j$ B e# w& q
; \& V# J! ?6 \ About PricewaterhouseCoopers" q, r& @3 f1 K3 o
! q$ V! o5 c- |6 j PricewaterhouseCoopers (www.pwc.com) provides industry-focused assurance,! H& F; J1 C1 J
tax and advisory services to build public trust and enhance value for its
. O1 P2 U# B( q% Bclients and their stakeholders. More than 140,000 people in 149 countries2 Q& p! x1 o$ i. c' @. o
across our network share their thinking, experience and solutions to develop
0 O8 i/ G! `2 C5 ]4 vfresh perspectives and practical advice. Now celebrating 100 years of) a. ]; e; q9 ]$ V
excellence in Canada, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP (www.pwc.com/ca) and its# C2 K) ~) }2 b& H3 o2 a
related entities have more than 5,200 partners and staff in offices across the
: \! G1 S: b! Z. p3 m$ hcountry.- A* [ g9 M. c
"PricewaterhouseCoopers" refers to PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, an Ontario& Z- B) X2 d9 A' q! F. S9 R
limited liability partnership, or, as the context requires, the
, d" f6 U6 g$ s6 l+ y" rPricewaterhouseCoopers global network or other member firms of the network,
7 ]- {( ? w1 s8 @ H$ ?8 W1 }& ~+ yeach of which is a separate and independent legal entity.7 `( |5 r H& n+ G& F6 m" Z
! g1 o ]( f1 `/ S6 F6 x
About the Urban Land Institute
# C0 C4 Q5 V, t3 p. b6 O
" H- _; f9 M' W# J! J( ^( A6 L4 D The Urban Land Institute (www.uli.org) is a nonprofit education and
; x, [; b2 ~& R9 e& f! Tresearch institute supported by its members. Its mission is to provide
' h- q0 N3 |7 ileadership in the responsible use of land and in sustaining and creating
9 c( r3 e+ @4 O) T; [+ Othriving communities worldwide. Established in 1936, the Institute has more! w! C& B }& z! N0 R% S; S( q
than 38,000 members representing all aspects of land use and development9 ?" ]3 [& l% A( C5 ]
disciplines.; P9 O! M6 @" O0 J
The Urban Land Institute is an active and growing organization in Canada.
" O6 }) A6 ]2 T0 J6 o$ MWith nearly 700 members across the country, Canada's first ULI District& e: V. z, ~5 \. v6 g
Council was established in Toronto in 2005 and a second District Council is
, O) E$ m8 l' X5 L: snow being formed in British Columbia. The Toronto District Council will be+ H( N: _2 X/ O. b4 L r# e! G
hosting a special event on Emerging Trends in Real Estate on November 20th,
( w5 V9 ]; g/ S! z& I2007, featuring Jonathan Miller, the principal author of the report, Blake
' q7 Z7 w0 t# K! ]) b5 d! _Hutcheson, President of CB Richard Ellis Canada Ltd., and George Carras,
+ I/ }) `5 `, [, dPresident of RealNet Canada Inc. For more information on this event, please3 j, m, b( d( J% Q5 E0 p3 \! C' Z# s. T
call the Toronto District Council Coordinator at (647) 258-0017, or look on
2 ^9 y+ h) V1 P+ b& b0 Cthe web at www.uli.org/events/index.cfm?id=3066., R" B1 v. I" Q# I* U. C# ^
0 S1 F. c# a, ?7 D
1 E* ?+ W6 ^3 r) a( T" I: f
5 L8 M2 e8 Y A+ v$ [# g8 N* f
For further information: Carolyn Forest, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP,0 E: b& E3 } ~( X
(416) 814-5730, carolyn.forest@ca.pwc.com1 M" U0 _5 {* d% r
http://www.newswire.ca/en/releas ... r2007/05/c4080.html
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