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Attention Real Estate Reporters: & e! m) v. E: U: \7 \# U8 ^9 p" R
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Despite US housing woes Canadian real estate remains upbeat o0 U' O$ H: E; G
TORONTO, Nov. 5 /CNW/ - Leading real estate experts are predicting the US
- {" E) n- F9 @! Q) x9 W* ]4 fcommercial real estate market will slow in 2008 and follow a similar pattern
" R1 P$ ]8 i% f, _# mas the current residential market. However, according to the annual Emerging3 X/ N8 z: m. o, F. e* \
Trends in Real Estate 2008 report, released by PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC) U6 L' ~* W) {/ Q, s- }
and the Urban Land Institute (ULI), their Canadian counterparts are much more
" e* R& g* @4 K* o! C$ Bupbeat.! l6 @% f# J! `* E
Now in its 29th year, Emerging Trends is the oldest, most highly regarded6 H6 B" W7 P5 N7 k
annual industry outlook for the real estate industry. The report reflects/ k8 _7 q1 o' u; c/ W6 k
interviews with and surveys of more than 600 of the industry's leading real
( @! r% G4 {4 z; J. R8 |$ Qestate experts, including investors, developers, property company
$ K& a0 \, c0 k3 |% M4 g. L) frepresentatives, lenders, brokers and consultants in both Canada and the US.2 s4 D- L. `; q% S$ H: A ?
Other versions of this report are conducted in countries around the world% K7 H- a; S+ k- u
including Asia Pacific and Europe.- \4 P) u. Y T. M
According to Chris Potter, PwC partner and leader of the firm's Canadian# n8 Y9 J$ {9 B) P! o* Z. [
Real Estate Tax practice, Canada benefits from a more conservative investment5 X9 V# z" U8 N+ B$ m' ]) y9 B
environment than the US. "In Canada, institution-dominated markets appear to* @9 Y4 [* Q9 Y6 O1 h5 g
be avoiding 'transaction mania', but real estate values have reached record* }% `! f7 l* ~7 g
highs and a strong economy has accelerated tenant demand for space."
1 D8 w7 C L% r9 ]$ K* T; |3 R P2 m According to American respondents, a healthy correction south of the4 G2 X. n) s* B6 S& z0 d
border will likely bypass long-term investors but penalize late-to-the-game
7 X$ P6 ]6 R2 A7 V6 Fspeculators and overleveraged buyers. Canadian respondents to the survey* M: |2 t# h6 X9 `: {1 P# P& V
remain positive about sidestepping any serious impacts of this possible US
0 Z. X; Z4 I+ k4 D6 k) `correction. Close to 36% view their prospects for profitability in 2008 to be
4 X' R& k! C4 F: |4 R p* svery good and a further 22.4% say they're excellent.
0 x& b" U: z n' |( x: G The strongest areas of real estate business activity for Canadian2 f8 o' [" ?! A
respondents is predicted to be within real estate services, followed by
- J1 j" J# }/ }! h# Jcommercial/multifamily development and homebuilding/residential land
$ R" n5 [# T$ o: h. E4 o6 a) Rdevelopment. All property sectors share positive prospects across the country
5 j! G8 n4 m/ A& P% B8 Mespecially industrial and retail with respondents, on average, stating! |( V, e$ _! {
development prospects are expected to be modestly good to good. The* h+ v% a" v+ X _9 x6 i
residential for-sale market is also expected to fair well, but might need to
( x) [: |- F: m, m& k* L( Btake a breather as homebuilders cannot keep up with the current pace and( T$ F6 d" @( L7 y
single-family housing looks overpriced.4 s* Z v- h, U8 { r: Z) B# J
Office stock is seeing limited inventories and dated product fill up with# g7 U5 M, [8 l/ ?2 g9 `0 x# _
tenants. Except for Montreal, where office vacancies are nearing 9%. Canadian
# k( y2 p+ f! ?1 M& R \metropolitan areas boast below 5% vacancies, and rents have room to push8 j5 A, P' a# u
higher. The survey is also showing that costs and land scarcity is limiting
& s! S! P* @* Y2 s, t# X4 qnew development. Hotel investment and development prospects are modestly good,
( m& a/ @0 U4 H4 ]and most respondents rate this sector either a buy or a hold. Rental
# a. I3 k9 n( D) N Bapartments are doing well in major cities with high immigration flows. Primary% _* F1 z6 P. p$ u, ]
western cities - Vancouver, Calgary, and Edmonton - are veering toward housing. |6 x0 d' V9 f) @
shortages as workers, attracted by a plethora of well-paying jobs, pour into
5 F, j% @" s: D6 x2 [+ Athe energy zone. Apartment occupancies are soaring in these areas. Development- d3 W, o. d# h0 M1 i, n# _
in other regions remains difficult because of costs and land scarcity.
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* u0 B2 ^# |6 G5 ` Canadian Markets to Watch
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The report comments on how Canadians like to live and work in central
' k# l6 E p' \% c5 q# k& ccities, as long as they can afford it. If housing is too pricey in 24-hour; u0 D" F/ r2 y1 a; P1 W6 s
neighbourhoods, people move to inner-ring suburbs or beyond and commute back6 W3 a) c% o8 K. `, p( _
into the cores. Investors, especially the institutions, are concentrated in
! L1 ?0 Q: x1 rdowntown areas too. Planners and developers focus on infill and more vertical
& h9 C* X* e; K( A7 o$ k& @projects, which reinforce the urban cores. The hot-growth energy cities out
# j* t, g! Q @3 `* `3 n% X" ^2 ?west - Calgary and Edmonton - score the highest ratings for investment0 R& R: Z0 G( [2 I
prospects, development, and for-sale housing, although it is not certain
8 k" G; l0 r' c5 S! Y$ K {3 r8 Mwhether the recent announcements on royalties will have any effect on this.
, D: P l" i+ K$ C% U" GToronto, Canada's premier global pathway city, and Vancouver also have high
9 V5 ^; ?% ` g! @* a' N( uratings. Ottawa and Montreal follow, with Halifax lagging.
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; j0 |/ b! k8 O. j Calgary/Edmonton
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2 [$ j$ `+ B: Q Calgary is the Canada's "resource" capital and North America's number-one
$ T) c& l6 ~. {, U1 G! qboomtown. Survey respondents foresee strong buys for all sectors: 53.5% give a
7 J, t% z ?) dbuy recommendation for Hotel Property, 52.8% for Industrial/Distribution,
7 ^* r2 [) C- T% G* |4 a, s. c L48.1% for Retail and Apartment Residential and 44.6% for Office Property., b- c: O' ~; G+ B& T/ h
Furthermore, on average the majority of respondents see Calgary For-Sale
9 \2 G4 V9 L7 q$ `3 }Homebuilding prospects as very good. Edmonton is closely mimicking the
* R# o) u7 U; ^) NCalgary-style growth wave and as long as demand for energy resources stays
$ k: V5 d) D% h" h$ Astrong, this market will continue to do well.( d5 F% X2 m) e0 x& Z
2 w! d! z8 N" [% n3 S, J
Vancouver
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Vancouver's diversified economy is roaring, the mining industry is
; m j: s: q) \- S% nbooming and the city provides a large port and a high-tech center. Outrageous
8 j: @3 a) h' e& i% s+ `3 mreal estate prices frustrate homebuyers and commercial investors and the
; Q( W7 |; H( |- [+ w4 Bmarket is extremely hard to crack. The 2010 Winter Olympic Games is also a9 J4 e# s. r) K( d' x
growth driver and accordingly 44.7% of respondents give Vancouver a buy5 V, N5 T! U" u$ [
recommendation for Hotel Property. A further 43.5% give a buy Retail, 41.3%
1 L/ ^# ^3 y" F: w3 Wfor Industrial/Distribution and 36.7% for Office Property followed by 34.1%# m& q& C0 v2 Q6 j: t9 R3 V# p1 j
for Apartment Residential property. Vancouver also ranks in the good to very
. ~9 ?' O) x- v) V3 P" rgood mark for for-sale homebuilding prospects.4 `5 \1 s: i6 Q- e# j9 g( t# M
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Toronto R- r0 z& R' ~( U
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Toronto ranks as a major global pathway destination, 24-hour city, and
M) [0 t: `0 `& ?manufacturing hub. Compared with other national financial centers, the city is% u; b# Y. b) Y3 u3 p' Z1 |$ U
relatively inexpensive. However, the rising loonie is hurting manufacturing7 F2 ~3 s7 o" z1 z4 L# n+ w J- t
industries, and clouds over the US economy threaten to stall out momentum.
; D+ V; F$ @/ g7 t" x& yThree new office towers are under construction, adding 3 million new square9 E0 b( _- j! N! \, G; K
feet of office space. Notably, Office (49.1%), Industrial (46.2%) and
- u# Z8 z% q8 R, ]Apartments (40.8%) are given solid buys. R* I: D& m; h; a) ~
, H7 _+ V8 m8 ~% Y5 b U6 m# I Montreal* N0 R( i1 ?6 [+ _& E; M5 o6 J
1 y$ u- v1 F! w) ~3 } Montreal continues to face concerns about market stability and overall
, o" W, O1 r. F% _' ~$ `growth prospects as major companies no longer choose it as a place to set up( o* d! }5 i7 y& D4 ~6 ?; f% l b# h
shop. But, plenty of government offices fill space. Of the larger cities in; X( G9 V+ @9 F0 D5 P
Canada, Montreal ranks lowest as a "buy" recommendation in all real estate# s+ \0 w$ X0 X( z" n% m
sectors. However, respondents generally rated all Montreal real estate sectors
- V! e6 H: _, ~+ B; \2 Y! O4 ^higher as a "hold" recommendation.5 C [1 C1 k$ S2 m9 V
! D/ V0 P' d7 e8 N1 V7 i The report notes that best bets for investors for the coming years
2 `/ m1 @! `0 P5 D0 ^- }. V6 Sinclude a focus on all property sectors in the high-growth western energy
3 g# K- V* N9 j5 P5 Kmarkets, hold on central business district office space, develop infill condos
. P4 b9 F# O s5 anear subways stops in Toronto, buy infill sites wherever you can and invest
3 A% `/ T* t7 x! i3 _" K6 S/ foverseas. Potter concludes, "Domestic opportunities are too limited at current
! A( M6 T0 |' o% Mprices."9 b( A' _' I. e. C, F& P
A copy of Emerging Trends in Real Estate(R) 2008 is available at# j/ I) B; j- P7 { E3 Y, `
www.uli.org or www.pwc.com/imre.
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About PricewaterhouseCoopers
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PricewaterhouseCoopers (www.pwc.com) provides industry-focused assurance,# n( W* C7 }3 a+ L+ ]
tax and advisory services to build public trust and enhance value for its
8 A+ q8 o7 h2 c& A$ T/ f8 W* Cclients and their stakeholders. More than 140,000 people in 149 countries2 G& N% t) A# R& v
across our network share their thinking, experience and solutions to develop
/ s* H* s( g) \6 z4 B+ t7 s' Kfresh perspectives and practical advice. Now celebrating 100 years of
0 C# V, W1 T/ Q( D) nexcellence in Canada, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP (www.pwc.com/ca) and its
# O" Y0 a4 g' w) J* drelated entities have more than 5,200 partners and staff in offices across the
+ j' v \ \1 c! I( P" c% ]: Qcountry.
! k, `* _" Q; c; U* a' D4 X; W3 T9 T "PricewaterhouseCoopers" refers to PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, an Ontario
8 r/ x$ }. [0 A" V0 Y! a+ Zlimited liability partnership, or, as the context requires, the$ o4 ?* K- k- j/ \* H/ Q. N5 h3 L, J6 F
PricewaterhouseCoopers global network or other member firms of the network,
4 t! m( D/ `$ r" E, Yeach of which is a separate and independent legal entity.
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2 Z* ^3 I0 c) M% I. ]* E9 s About the Urban Land Institute# i8 _& Q2 \! g: @1 y
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The Urban Land Institute (www.uli.org) is a nonprofit education and
0 X9 S5 `% D/ Mresearch institute supported by its members. Its mission is to provide( E; q- R9 E4 W; |$ b. d
leadership in the responsible use of land and in sustaining and creating/ j2 v, g' g6 C: D" q* d5 G$ l
thriving communities worldwide. Established in 1936, the Institute has more5 C7 u9 P9 n% ~+ {9 |) T. v
than 38,000 members representing all aspects of land use and development" ^' p- |5 ^( V7 y! E1 C w
disciplines.
. y; o& V. a2 c, c6 Y l- E The Urban Land Institute is an active and growing organization in Canada.' C( ]! g; k+ K
With nearly 700 members across the country, Canada's first ULI District& k0 Y5 p2 v5 g) k8 f
Council was established in Toronto in 2005 and a second District Council is6 z" a; e9 t. Y& I9 f2 }# S( l
now being formed in British Columbia. The Toronto District Council will be9 {( C- I) ]6 d2 a% U# k+ w
hosting a special event on Emerging Trends in Real Estate on November 20th,
% V+ T( F3 I$ _; Z8 T9 q e$ l2 ^- j2007, featuring Jonathan Miller, the principal author of the report, Blake7 |5 h% F, |9 X6 N* E
Hutcheson, President of CB Richard Ellis Canada Ltd., and George Carras,3 ?- d2 @/ X4 U# q0 t: E0 ^
President of RealNet Canada Inc. For more information on this event, please
$ P2 k4 v$ F( Pcall the Toronto District Council Coordinator at (647) 258-0017, or look on
3 `. q# E- v9 Othe web at www.uli.org/events/index.cfm?id=3066.
/ c4 R+ n& y: O) R3 J% p3 D; L5 _$ B( ]( {1 e" Q7 A5 O( }0 J
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For further information: Carolyn Forest, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP,$ `- i6 A3 w- f0 y+ D
(416) 814-5730, carolyn.forest@ca.pwc.com. S& j8 H2 Z' i. d8 L; c8 \; t0 d
http://www.newswire.ca/en/releas ... r2007/05/c4080.html' q8 J- H: F, a0 d6 D/ D% q9 L
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