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Attention Real Estate Reporters:
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Despite US housing woes Canadian real estate remains upbeat : Q. P3 A. N! x7 c
TORONTO, Nov. 5 /CNW/ - Leading real estate experts are predicting the US& P" M8 @6 \; m; r2 C0 w& y: L4 [
commercial real estate market will slow in 2008 and follow a similar pattern# V0 T# W- ^% K2 C# H9 r E
as the current residential market. However, according to the annual Emerging
8 J# i; ~) m2 f9 STrends in Real Estate 2008 report, released by PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC)& t- `5 |1 B6 ~$ g# O5 b
and the Urban Land Institute (ULI), their Canadian counterparts are much more
2 _' \3 v H5 C( L4 {upbeat.5 {# j$ J8 p3 X& C! D
Now in its 29th year, Emerging Trends is the oldest, most highly regarded( }1 T- m$ p6 I1 @* [' k
annual industry outlook for the real estate industry. The report reflects
. h/ `7 h9 |4 Winterviews with and surveys of more than 600 of the industry's leading real
$ [& X0 i& L: I3 Q) Y( t7 ~+ restate experts, including investors, developers, property company* P5 ~ g! F7 M4 Q x
representatives, lenders, brokers and consultants in both Canada and the US.0 H% a ~' P' c- x
Other versions of this report are conducted in countries around the world
; o/ s1 f/ ^# E6 Z* |5 j- Z \including Asia Pacific and Europe.
- v& G% z; Z* i According to Chris Potter, PwC partner and leader of the firm's Canadian6 q F% d0 l7 I
Real Estate Tax practice, Canada benefits from a more conservative investment. S0 r$ x" |- \9 R
environment than the US. "In Canada, institution-dominated markets appear to
6 E d2 A' K9 ~0 s6 Wbe avoiding 'transaction mania', but real estate values have reached record
6 B' t( \) g! [5 `) Z) V" shighs and a strong economy has accelerated tenant demand for space."
+ I) |' `5 D2 t8 I+ K According to American respondents, a healthy correction south of the
: e5 j! ]( s/ |3 A3 u3 uborder will likely bypass long-term investors but penalize late-to-the-game3 d! b. u' R% l
speculators and overleveraged buyers. Canadian respondents to the survey" _ j+ m5 F/ S* v4 {6 x
remain positive about sidestepping any serious impacts of this possible US
/ L( o u5 c4 ^3 W: y! k$ O" kcorrection. Close to 36% view their prospects for profitability in 2008 to be
/ z& q2 g3 i3 x% \very good and a further 22.4% say they're excellent.
) K c6 ?6 M5 u1 w3 C# @0 B# M- U The strongest areas of real estate business activity for Canadian$ R* E) J$ J1 V; l, Z
respondents is predicted to be within real estate services, followed by
$ C' ^. K5 [& A9 Y$ a k5 N7 mcommercial/multifamily development and homebuilding/residential land
8 a6 R" J" j8 w' hdevelopment. All property sectors share positive prospects across the country
9 A5 C" h1 K. K. uespecially industrial and retail with respondents, on average, stating* A- r& M4 J. s4 p# e4 M
development prospects are expected to be modestly good to good. The
" u: }" @4 P6 f a8 Fresidential for-sale market is also expected to fair well, but might need to! h4 h! s' d' d L) q7 d
take a breather as homebuilders cannot keep up with the current pace and
* o" F9 z' `# m1 xsingle-family housing looks overpriced.: W% M4 z# A' ^. J0 b- g/ Y
Office stock is seeing limited inventories and dated product fill up with
0 a J* _4 A& a8 U% @$ f U2 \tenants. Except for Montreal, where office vacancies are nearing 9%. Canadian
) u) n4 H' l* a' g: Bmetropolitan areas boast below 5% vacancies, and rents have room to push
" e- W. o& g# yhigher. The survey is also showing that costs and land scarcity is limiting: Y4 \3 y5 k. f) q, y! w( m
new development. Hotel investment and development prospects are modestly good,
( k* t% D+ q: X6 O+ i) k6 Z. Uand most respondents rate this sector either a buy or a hold. Rental# ]* K" z/ l2 E, ^3 c' C
apartments are doing well in major cities with high immigration flows. Primary. I$ E! K( W2 e9 u
western cities - Vancouver, Calgary, and Edmonton - are veering toward housing
! B1 s( K& P% _shortages as workers, attracted by a plethora of well-paying jobs, pour into
. s z( {* g! Q0 H' n9 R' \* Rthe energy zone. Apartment occupancies are soaring in these areas. Development
* a( ?3 p5 J5 cin other regions remains difficult because of costs and land scarcity.' B+ o% i3 P) G% T
) S/ q- ?! ^- N& Z; G h Canadian Markets to Watch) L' z/ N& M' C
$ n8 u+ Y8 W$ `4 \4 |) U+ C The report comments on how Canadians like to live and work in central3 R( S; z. g- i: g/ C# A. Z; Y* m$ n
cities, as long as they can afford it. If housing is too pricey in 24-hour
* @( G3 w% ]! ]4 {; @$ @0 t$ bneighbourhoods, people move to inner-ring suburbs or beyond and commute back; @" s: A8 e6 l
into the cores. Investors, especially the institutions, are concentrated in/ U$ ^* u- Y& f/ ?4 }6 C$ ]
downtown areas too. Planners and developers focus on infill and more vertical
/ f* {% h6 z6 h3 Uprojects, which reinforce the urban cores. The hot-growth energy cities out* D+ J1 e% w9 R/ K% @- T
west - Calgary and Edmonton - score the highest ratings for investment
8 {3 [: O' B# v7 E, {" }1 Hprospects, development, and for-sale housing, although it is not certain$ x8 A% V3 k3 f$ t1 l/ S
whether the recent announcements on royalties will have any effect on this.
$ G5 m! |8 s" K4 s( _: d- qToronto, Canada's premier global pathway city, and Vancouver also have high. Z% g+ |: x4 f9 w
ratings. Ottawa and Montreal follow, with Halifax lagging.
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1 F. {' q. O* G: \3 K' u G6 \ Calgary/Edmonton
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Calgary is the Canada's "resource" capital and North America's number-one* ]+ d" L& a! Y k
boomtown. Survey respondents foresee strong buys for all sectors: 53.5% give a
2 T- O7 _" N6 O5 @3 n6 ubuy recommendation for Hotel Property, 52.8% for Industrial/Distribution,8 m0 @6 s$ Y1 P6 f: N6 u4 c: w
48.1% for Retail and Apartment Residential and 44.6% for Office Property.% `$ @% ?2 i- P* t8 @( G
Furthermore, on average the majority of respondents see Calgary For-Sale7 O8 x" G7 [: b1 ]3 U
Homebuilding prospects as very good. Edmonton is closely mimicking the% v6 H3 ?% y$ g# L! M# k' `0 y
Calgary-style growth wave and as long as demand for energy resources stays5 D) b( J( n: I. f
strong, this market will continue to do well.
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Vancouver8 t% a2 u4 ?, c( X7 Z$ N$ q
7 O% Q$ U' p* U; r |: ] Vancouver's diversified economy is roaring, the mining industry is
' `- x7 Y# U: k m1 \ p( U6 Wbooming and the city provides a large port and a high-tech center. Outrageous
' N; Q* Q/ X5 [4 M* q: @, t0 dreal estate prices frustrate homebuyers and commercial investors and the
! s$ Q5 p0 ]; b! \2 Gmarket is extremely hard to crack. The 2010 Winter Olympic Games is also a: b* ^* \; D% l' p' Z
growth driver and accordingly 44.7% of respondents give Vancouver a buy0 w) `) D4 h( U
recommendation for Hotel Property. A further 43.5% give a buy Retail, 41.3%1 K8 }( d) R9 [9 U
for Industrial/Distribution and 36.7% for Office Property followed by 34.1%
( h$ A9 J. x9 u/ E* M2 Yfor Apartment Residential property. Vancouver also ranks in the good to very& S; g4 |, I0 s* z2 U; S
good mark for for-sale homebuilding prospects.
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Toronto
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0 d6 T) ^+ h3 M: ~9 B9 }$ H- A Toronto ranks as a major global pathway destination, 24-hour city, and
/ J- L; S6 R5 Kmanufacturing hub. Compared with other national financial centers, the city is$ I" O% K' W+ @
relatively inexpensive. However, the rising loonie is hurting manufacturing
- R4 c( I9 u e; p& T) D5 Kindustries, and clouds over the US economy threaten to stall out momentum.0 h2 r3 U+ p* Q4 ^/ n3 M
Three new office towers are under construction, adding 3 million new square
1 W9 g2 A" V; g& v6 p# O) Mfeet of office space. Notably, Office (49.1%), Industrial (46.2%) and, T6 e' G/ M0 `6 i, p$ R% \
Apartments (40.8%) are given solid buys.
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Montreal
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+ c! b4 R. Q+ ` s! G Montreal continues to face concerns about market stability and overall
+ V U9 R8 i: r( f& p4 O9 I5 vgrowth prospects as major companies no longer choose it as a place to set up' Z6 ^) Q- e6 |: |, u8 [
shop. But, plenty of government offices fill space. Of the larger cities in6 r- f. D- S% k8 J% U2 c+ v0 S
Canada, Montreal ranks lowest as a "buy" recommendation in all real estate
' ]: B5 {, r: G& E- u0 x" @/ }# h# ksectors. However, respondents generally rated all Montreal real estate sectors- Z1 X9 I2 g4 j+ O6 s2 }0 }# F
higher as a "hold" recommendation.
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The report notes that best bets for investors for the coming years
- T |& _; w+ F$ W& V7 H3 B0 H) Ainclude a focus on all property sectors in the high-growth western energy2 Z7 {" x! r+ g2 P
markets, hold on central business district office space, develop infill condos
. p( i N. P. p8 s* h: N, Xnear subways stops in Toronto, buy infill sites wherever you can and invest8 h0 V' N) F6 x1 z- S3 Q( k- t
overseas. Potter concludes, "Domestic opportunities are too limited at current0 A' a- b1 R! o* _5 z6 n
prices."
: l$ D' G1 J( q6 |: ` A copy of Emerging Trends in Real Estate(R) 2008 is available at+ Y/ |5 B b; R* v2 x. w, f
www.uli.org or www.pwc.com/imre.
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: Y+ `, `0 ]: x( d& A8 } About PricewaterhouseCoopers
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PricewaterhouseCoopers (www.pwc.com) provides industry-focused assurance,
2 t: u! d4 K8 W+ otax and advisory services to build public trust and enhance value for its5 \* i+ q; L$ O% m5 ?
clients and their stakeholders. More than 140,000 people in 149 countries
2 I0 E9 w$ l1 g/ u, Oacross our network share their thinking, experience and solutions to develop5 J& L! e0 E- n( [, n1 C
fresh perspectives and practical advice. Now celebrating 100 years of
6 ]# j) U. r1 q+ [: m* d; e1 nexcellence in Canada, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP (www.pwc.com/ca) and its4 ^- n f7 m5 |( M
related entities have more than 5,200 partners and staff in offices across the5 P: S4 x6 P) B5 \5 D5 N7 k" z
country.' V/ D: ^# B$ ^# d& ]* ?- ]
"PricewaterhouseCoopers" refers to PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, an Ontario( [& p! H1 e+ c) M$ ^6 ]! B7 X
limited liability partnership, or, as the context requires, the
% f0 K; y0 a0 r/ M% S& }( C3 qPricewaterhouseCoopers global network or other member firms of the network,
7 H- H& [+ z, N- x+ u2 z8 t( A; ieach of which is a separate and independent legal entity.2 V0 c; Q) \0 s) q: r& k" v+ t
2 O) C% a4 v0 d
About the Urban Land Institute; x! v$ U' P N
( E1 g! q/ Y+ O, P0 R. z( v* v, F: T The Urban Land Institute (www.uli.org) is a nonprofit education and
: {7 E+ N* x. j" f1 o- ^research institute supported by its members. Its mission is to provide
t% G" T4 Y ~7 }/ k) J) j: w& pleadership in the responsible use of land and in sustaining and creating
6 @9 k3 c% w8 N# qthriving communities worldwide. Established in 1936, the Institute has more) J' G5 L X' a$ H; P
than 38,000 members representing all aspects of land use and development# Z: z6 N$ }, d
disciplines.
6 z) J+ j( n6 s, l* N+ @ The Urban Land Institute is an active and growing organization in Canada.
$ z' n; y |( R1 i9 \With nearly 700 members across the country, Canada's first ULI District
9 \! C, u! u1 V, N- UCouncil was established in Toronto in 2005 and a second District Council is
9 c( S- A4 l' E# Vnow being formed in British Columbia. The Toronto District Council will be6 S/ t# `! V, x( i; u( X- |
hosting a special event on Emerging Trends in Real Estate on November 20th,
4 E& V% D$ @6 G C: y2007, featuring Jonathan Miller, the principal author of the report, Blake/ B C1 d; a! R
Hutcheson, President of CB Richard Ellis Canada Ltd., and George Carras,# T( J# s7 W3 p, W; n5 l$ D' a' y
President of RealNet Canada Inc. For more information on this event, please
* X: I5 n! `" B$ ~. e6 |% rcall the Toronto District Council Coordinator at (647) 258-0017, or look on0 I8 c% g1 I( X
the web at www.uli.org/events/index.cfm?id=3066.
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For further information: Carolyn Forest, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP,
; l* N, {0 s6 V(416) 814-5730, carolyn.forest@ca.pwc.com; b4 b/ N( a7 t: \* \! D. e b
http://www.newswire.ca/en/releas ... r2007/05/c4080.html8 p3 h! ^+ [; Y
% F. n; F. q; ?+ Z7 t5 I- x/ ?4 N# R[ 本帖最后由 QWE321 于 2007-11-13 09:08 编辑 ] |
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