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Attention Real Estate Reporters:
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; t! w: q! X* u! H% NDespite US housing woes Canadian real estate remains upbeat 9 I& J( Y. j& ~$ g& F
TORONTO, Nov. 5 /CNW/ - Leading real estate experts are predicting the US
7 W" H- D9 P. c9 j, y4 t0 [commercial real estate market will slow in 2008 and follow a similar pattern$ Y. M& P( R& w! P
as the current residential market. However, according to the annual Emerging- w& p v- ?$ z) ?8 d+ V
Trends in Real Estate 2008 report, released by PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC)
+ H: ?" p! n$ G w9 o% ~and the Urban Land Institute (ULI), their Canadian counterparts are much more6 S! ~7 F- o# `6 x
upbeat.+ d! X8 d, F' [, i0 |
Now in its 29th year, Emerging Trends is the oldest, most highly regarded
/ y3 K9 N: E: Y2 d9 d! Iannual industry outlook for the real estate industry. The report reflects& k6 }" n9 ^* M
interviews with and surveys of more than 600 of the industry's leading real8 L7 N; P+ Y4 j, |* R8 i: W" i1 ~
estate experts, including investors, developers, property company
) G. a) }6 I3 z$ jrepresentatives, lenders, brokers and consultants in both Canada and the US.
! B% o1 q( x+ t& s3 _Other versions of this report are conducted in countries around the world
3 ? r4 g0 Y$ D! ]including Asia Pacific and Europe.! Y p1 V. M- u1 v6 S9 O4 W
According to Chris Potter, PwC partner and leader of the firm's Canadian
. o( ~' R4 B5 @8 T+ I/ |Real Estate Tax practice, Canada benefits from a more conservative investment% d( L2 R6 c% G+ z) @4 y6 }
environment than the US. "In Canada, institution-dominated markets appear to
: [/ V$ l( M* E5 cbe avoiding 'transaction mania', but real estate values have reached record
5 e! L7 K/ N# q: A y" ehighs and a strong economy has accelerated tenant demand for space.", p) d7 C7 k1 c" t+ O
According to American respondents, a healthy correction south of the+ C# n+ ]& t2 @$ S M7 i- u) x
border will likely bypass long-term investors but penalize late-to-the-game" D) O" ?: @9 \. W3 ?& h2 i
speculators and overleveraged buyers. Canadian respondents to the survey1 ?$ f/ R# _+ t7 G
remain positive about sidestepping any serious impacts of this possible US( ]8 H& O% i6 P5 N! J& W
correction. Close to 36% view their prospects for profitability in 2008 to be
0 O) y2 S8 Q0 x3 vvery good and a further 22.4% say they're excellent./ a% `2 i' \; u- h
The strongest areas of real estate business activity for Canadian! J2 g1 G6 V& b7 Y6 M6 o6 p1 A
respondents is predicted to be within real estate services, followed by" b4 i2 {- b2 ?3 T
commercial/multifamily development and homebuilding/residential land
/ a3 k, t4 A. M9 S$ Y, E+ W4 l/ Ddevelopment. All property sectors share positive prospects across the country: n" i N" A, h# G! ^) U
especially industrial and retail with respondents, on average, stating i8 u0 y4 ?8 D; U: N4 B
development prospects are expected to be modestly good to good. The3 I6 T; l- j( J1 T1 a/ ?4 v8 O" l$ X
residential for-sale market is also expected to fair well, but might need to8 D! K& C1 B1 C
take a breather as homebuilders cannot keep up with the current pace and1 ?- B5 u8 Q9 r$ J
single-family housing looks overpriced.5 f ~: ~; {% S
Office stock is seeing limited inventories and dated product fill up with
) h/ }& D. q* g/ O' z/ J; N: Dtenants. Except for Montreal, where office vacancies are nearing 9%. Canadian6 y' Z/ F0 [3 \$ g, i5 u' F4 M
metropolitan areas boast below 5% vacancies, and rents have room to push8 [. \. B( s; A) l
higher. The survey is also showing that costs and land scarcity is limiting6 ]8 I; [. U, K: B; E+ L0 @
new development. Hotel investment and development prospects are modestly good,
% ?2 |- a% N- X. Hand most respondents rate this sector either a buy or a hold. Rental; _/ ?$ ^& W8 @4 e9 B
apartments are doing well in major cities with high immigration flows. Primary, G* W2 b1 O; i: W) e
western cities - Vancouver, Calgary, and Edmonton - are veering toward housing
H3 e+ F9 [, S/ x$ A7 ]shortages as workers, attracted by a plethora of well-paying jobs, pour into
& f6 O; q' V- u& q2 @3 nthe energy zone. Apartment occupancies are soaring in these areas. Development
- ^! o2 G$ K8 O* ^& Z) iin other regions remains difficult because of costs and land scarcity.
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3 Q* |, e7 d8 ~: Z* p5 b4 u" S; l Canadian Markets to Watch
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The report comments on how Canadians like to live and work in central
* B* v3 w% x5 T9 T [# ^ [2 {/ {cities, as long as they can afford it. If housing is too pricey in 24-hour
. @* ~ t( k, G- }neighbourhoods, people move to inner-ring suburbs or beyond and commute back
8 H5 L. N( g9 a8 l( \into the cores. Investors, especially the institutions, are concentrated in8 s3 M6 j2 |. q
downtown areas too. Planners and developers focus on infill and more vertical
; O& t. M1 Z+ M8 C% Vprojects, which reinforce the urban cores. The hot-growth energy cities out
3 I6 e+ Y7 K; J( N0 m& l! E7 gwest - Calgary and Edmonton - score the highest ratings for investment; Z5 F% f. ]1 D3 t& e2 ~8 ?4 V
prospects, development, and for-sale housing, although it is not certain
7 u: ?: y* M" uwhether the recent announcements on royalties will have any effect on this.
/ b& j& G5 M/ p4 U" ~Toronto, Canada's premier global pathway city, and Vancouver also have high
! z$ X# o) `- [ R5 W( P3 Nratings. Ottawa and Montreal follow, with Halifax lagging.9 ~: |3 E$ Q u: i+ @, X
3 o+ u u0 k ^; Y2 V) @+ ]5 t+ |
Calgary/Edmonton# a/ C5 f5 X' w0 O! f
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Calgary is the Canada's "resource" capital and North America's number-one
" T6 a& P7 f. l7 X: cboomtown. Survey respondents foresee strong buys for all sectors: 53.5% give a5 F% I( Z1 l3 r" w* w, n6 P
buy recommendation for Hotel Property, 52.8% for Industrial/Distribution,
& H* P5 D9 C; S& A7 s48.1% for Retail and Apartment Residential and 44.6% for Office Property.
2 u. w5 |/ g7 ?2 a4 S v* c- C4 UFurthermore, on average the majority of respondents see Calgary For-Sale
3 `+ c9 ~1 e( `$ d6 {Homebuilding prospects as very good. Edmonton is closely mimicking the& R$ O6 J! |/ a4 Q: P% ^6 ~7 ?
Calgary-style growth wave and as long as demand for energy resources stays# J" O, K- W! ^& R) I7 u) f
strong, this market will continue to do well.! M9 t% m) C4 U- z" ~+ h1 Q7 H
( C* o* u" t$ ~& W) m
Vancouver2 c- d7 x( z, f
3 R& z) l8 F! D2 Q) z* A7 Q6 d Vancouver's diversified economy is roaring, the mining industry is3 h5 D; ~3 V# |/ U# I
booming and the city provides a large port and a high-tech center. Outrageous
8 `2 Q2 m, _8 X" R9 p! p" ?0 Areal estate prices frustrate homebuyers and commercial investors and the
. O3 V Q7 @" @6 I8 q1 t# Gmarket is extremely hard to crack. The 2010 Winter Olympic Games is also a
/ W7 n2 J! \2 o' A' X& Ogrowth driver and accordingly 44.7% of respondents give Vancouver a buy
+ n- ^4 N3 O" v0 Wrecommendation for Hotel Property. A further 43.5% give a buy Retail, 41.3%- v, ]- L$ w$ }
for Industrial/Distribution and 36.7% for Office Property followed by 34.1%
! }5 j) k. D2 ]6 ofor Apartment Residential property. Vancouver also ranks in the good to very
) y+ R; i2 r# O9 O! sgood mark for for-sale homebuilding prospects.) q; l/ G7 [4 X# W( ^+ S
* Z6 ^% I9 K; E" O' t& b1 m
Toronto+ W& z# O0 ~1 d+ Z: t
! F2 v( i4 H" d- D/ I Toronto ranks as a major global pathway destination, 24-hour city, and- p) @6 G U/ b; Z. n
manufacturing hub. Compared with other national financial centers, the city is; ~1 o- c9 H6 Z) ^
relatively inexpensive. However, the rising loonie is hurting manufacturing
A* C6 C- ?, X( J `9 ^industries, and clouds over the US economy threaten to stall out momentum.; m# j; x+ s; {) `% b: V
Three new office towers are under construction, adding 3 million new square7 c& e8 M6 P/ N. r" T
feet of office space. Notably, Office (49.1%), Industrial (46.2%) and
! V5 c: c! ~' DApartments (40.8%) are given solid buys.
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Montreal, T' l( Y& h' T
4 s: f& }' \+ Z/ [: K Montreal continues to face concerns about market stability and overall
. [1 H8 { ~" mgrowth prospects as major companies no longer choose it as a place to set up
7 I, t' ]" Q! c. h/ v6 d3 Dshop. But, plenty of government offices fill space. Of the larger cities in% T' J$ {# W8 Y$ Y
Canada, Montreal ranks lowest as a "buy" recommendation in all real estate
0 X, n/ _9 s$ f, M/ c9 M }$ ?sectors. However, respondents generally rated all Montreal real estate sectors; M% N' Z2 [/ D7 t' U* E
higher as a "hold" recommendation.& ^( M) ~ p0 O2 d% ~, d( d
+ ~; F: L! X! s" q2 \( O
The report notes that best bets for investors for the coming years
! h2 j, \$ b5 uinclude a focus on all property sectors in the high-growth western energy
+ a9 k2 P+ R/ ^2 X. h9 j a$ tmarkets, hold on central business district office space, develop infill condos
" T3 {( Q8 K1 N. B% snear subways stops in Toronto, buy infill sites wherever you can and invest
4 k% z8 ?. _8 @, moverseas. Potter concludes, "Domestic opportunities are too limited at current! J- J( o5 D. X5 t2 [4 I4 G# U9 y6 ~* @( s
prices."
4 v- G: @+ T2 k: u3 _" b A copy of Emerging Trends in Real Estate(R) 2008 is available at
+ p' {' m+ h2 M twww.uli.org or www.pwc.com/imre.4 P( B" H, B: D$ T
* U0 O) P' L. f# ^# B0 A( x% H1 x
About PricewaterhouseCoopers3 w* ~- H4 T+ ^5 ?1 I/ F( z
/ D+ c0 E9 E! m PricewaterhouseCoopers (www.pwc.com) provides industry-focused assurance,% c& q2 q3 m% i0 |) D% m$ g
tax and advisory services to build public trust and enhance value for its) E% I/ X0 J2 I$ ]% [ n, [
clients and their stakeholders. More than 140,000 people in 149 countries6 L2 s5 P T* M n
across our network share their thinking, experience and solutions to develop6 n5 @1 O7 h. q4 w* r
fresh perspectives and practical advice. Now celebrating 100 years of
L" M4 h! l! f3 Lexcellence in Canada, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP (www.pwc.com/ca) and its% {( k1 \+ q7 s, X& @% W, v( Y/ U9 b
related entities have more than 5,200 partners and staff in offices across the
: y- F B( ?+ a1 U3 C) S! Wcountry.2 V. ]% M9 ^ v) e- c0 ^6 g6 d2 H( f' j
"PricewaterhouseCoopers" refers to PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, an Ontario6 a, v0 }. E3 D4 e
limited liability partnership, or, as the context requires, the
# M2 [, @! f7 F# BPricewaterhouseCoopers global network or other member firms of the network,
$ e2 Z. _2 w' c* C2 beach of which is a separate and independent legal entity.' N" E9 ^8 z# Y4 ]& R
" r c; A! r, `' Z3 v) h7 y
About the Urban Land Institute
- q7 z0 T( e" [( N; I( K8 C* o; z% l- [1 Q) d, o0 z& h% B, \' b
The Urban Land Institute (www.uli.org) is a nonprofit education and/ m7 W, M/ S# s! [6 T
research institute supported by its members. Its mission is to provide- @5 r( v3 ~5 C$ a0 ? T$ p3 I2 n
leadership in the responsible use of land and in sustaining and creating
0 \5 j$ H% x, J2 ` G. F8 X. Dthriving communities worldwide. Established in 1936, the Institute has more
' d _3 D Z$ t" e* z* ?7 hthan 38,000 members representing all aspects of land use and development
4 j3 O3 x3 w8 P* f0 m- Hdisciplines. C/ k+ V7 D5 j' {( \
The Urban Land Institute is an active and growing organization in Canada.! m. J8 d; Y- B# _* b& l
With nearly 700 members across the country, Canada's first ULI District
# b% z H6 e! i, i7 [6 iCouncil was established in Toronto in 2005 and a second District Council is
/ F7 F* b) |1 }4 f2 v3 enow being formed in British Columbia. The Toronto District Council will be
- Q% k! s1 |' j5 C. H( Zhosting a special event on Emerging Trends in Real Estate on November 20th,: [) v# P8 }6 c& w; m
2007, featuring Jonathan Miller, the principal author of the report, Blake7 `$ @$ S/ a. C8 X2 Q7 \7 f2 x S
Hutcheson, President of CB Richard Ellis Canada Ltd., and George Carras,
* ^; _/ _, E5 |. I5 w$ {# NPresident of RealNet Canada Inc. For more information on this event, please7 O( C- v: H t) v
call the Toronto District Council Coordinator at (647) 258-0017, or look on
/ h J) ^9 B& n7 pthe web at www.uli.org/events/index.cfm?id=3066.' `! O( O4 v, X* m3 s% W* K, |8 c; @
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For further information: Carolyn Forest, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP,$ N" t# N9 A/ O) r
(416) 814-5730, carolyn.forest@ca.pwc.com
7 Y. w# h5 E! o; y3 j, j; f# ihttp://www.newswire.ca/en/releas ... r2007/05/c4080.html4 m- `2 k# e. s0 F6 X6 c
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