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Attention Real Estate Reporters:
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6 G4 V1 N- b) s2 B9 ^# G; qDespite US housing woes Canadian real estate remains upbeat % Q: t3 i# v0 T7 @8 |6 Y* O
TORONTO, Nov. 5 /CNW/ - Leading real estate experts are predicting the US$ n5 J3 }9 q2 C8 q. J" _
commercial real estate market will slow in 2008 and follow a similar pattern. D( ~- r) X& L0 ^. k" B
as the current residential market. However, according to the annual Emerging
, u' }+ ]6 E }( s1 k8 OTrends in Real Estate 2008 report, released by PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC)
2 ^! k* |, H9 u- ]9 aand the Urban Land Institute (ULI), their Canadian counterparts are much more7 X. j1 \$ K4 Y6 A* d1 E w$ Q
upbeat., C+ i' \. Q/ L* B
Now in its 29th year, Emerging Trends is the oldest, most highly regarded, T- g7 n# x5 p3 l
annual industry outlook for the real estate industry. The report reflects
( g3 D* c9 U% w* |3 B3 C( ^: ^' Kinterviews with and surveys of more than 600 of the industry's leading real; A- a, R m% y$ Y/ z- q8 x4 ^
estate experts, including investors, developers, property company
: N7 n8 `1 P% hrepresentatives, lenders, brokers and consultants in both Canada and the US.4 j6 p) @! E b
Other versions of this report are conducted in countries around the world
) o9 w2 b7 J- M \7 @+ lincluding Asia Pacific and Europe.
3 J& l' Z y+ W+ U According to Chris Potter, PwC partner and leader of the firm's Canadian9 c |( |# [9 z j! P
Real Estate Tax practice, Canada benefits from a more conservative investment. U: Q+ j( ^5 h) b; ?( {1 I
environment than the US. "In Canada, institution-dominated markets appear to
( e: i# g- b4 [0 C/ U: lbe avoiding 'transaction mania', but real estate values have reached record( z2 j' b7 N- w1 f6 _
highs and a strong economy has accelerated tenant demand for space."
- X$ D6 l- f- `% p- B, W According to American respondents, a healthy correction south of the
7 I# P- ^2 ?8 o2 U3 O1 cborder will likely bypass long-term investors but penalize late-to-the-game1 t( c" |: b8 C4 v
speculators and overleveraged buyers. Canadian respondents to the survey
. o3 J- s# X, Q& Y" p0 f. U2 L. Nremain positive about sidestepping any serious impacts of this possible US
- X0 m( }1 L! D4 Q, v! o3 Xcorrection. Close to 36% view their prospects for profitability in 2008 to be/ J2 ` |% m. s$ y* o# G0 y( G
very good and a further 22.4% say they're excellent.
2 ]: ?3 I( R: ~ z The strongest areas of real estate business activity for Canadian4 D Z- n3 x! f1 T- Q6 g
respondents is predicted to be within real estate services, followed by( I) N! o6 C; r# K
commercial/multifamily development and homebuilding/residential land' U! K& w) @/ E$ e
development. All property sectors share positive prospects across the country
; f b. P% Y: |especially industrial and retail with respondents, on average, stating
$ E7 E. K" b. d1 @* O1 T- _1 }3 T# I7 pdevelopment prospects are expected to be modestly good to good. The7 K Z; Y8 h( ^
residential for-sale market is also expected to fair well, but might need to
W9 P) w( g* ~# }/ utake a breather as homebuilders cannot keep up with the current pace and- K3 m; b+ H% \. e$ h+ M
single-family housing looks overpriced.
7 r) o. {) g5 L+ j/ a$ E Office stock is seeing limited inventories and dated product fill up with1 F, N- ?# ^" b
tenants. Except for Montreal, where office vacancies are nearing 9%. Canadian
) }& K4 W, l4 N. g, f$ ometropolitan areas boast below 5% vacancies, and rents have room to push
3 T) V+ A @1 a) t+ `4 X: Hhigher. The survey is also showing that costs and land scarcity is limiting
7 ?" t$ B, ^/ {4 w" I* |9 ]new development. Hotel investment and development prospects are modestly good,- |% z! {2 r" T) m r* S( m
and most respondents rate this sector either a buy or a hold. Rental
* p, v1 R9 M* ]apartments are doing well in major cities with high immigration flows. Primary2 t! E( s+ k4 F3 g
western cities - Vancouver, Calgary, and Edmonton - are veering toward housing, n8 s+ Q* K6 I; a
shortages as workers, attracted by a plethora of well-paying jobs, pour into
s4 L7 i2 |' x. O! zthe energy zone. Apartment occupancies are soaring in these areas. Development3 t% e; T7 g0 R/ L/ f. R$ e
in other regions remains difficult because of costs and land scarcity.
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Canadian Markets to Watch$ `# i) H: N$ Z6 M. I. W" R
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The report comments on how Canadians like to live and work in central
; j* x/ b3 y9 U0 w- n; J2 Xcities, as long as they can afford it. If housing is too pricey in 24-hour7 e6 v+ |" g. e7 R
neighbourhoods, people move to inner-ring suburbs or beyond and commute back4 j2 W5 S( j" H) p, o
into the cores. Investors, especially the institutions, are concentrated in
# U8 v2 r( ^+ G1 D$ X Gdowntown areas too. Planners and developers focus on infill and more vertical
3 {4 p# J' Z5 k9 h! P: p$ h3 pprojects, which reinforce the urban cores. The hot-growth energy cities out% h. T; I( |8 { e( L
west - Calgary and Edmonton - score the highest ratings for investment# l+ x; g I# B, ?: y
prospects, development, and for-sale housing, although it is not certain- { `: |. p4 ?9 z2 e
whether the recent announcements on royalties will have any effect on this.
9 ~) _6 C6 h2 k0 O$ I; KToronto, Canada's premier global pathway city, and Vancouver also have high- V* I3 i9 ]# b( h: R: @% z
ratings. Ottawa and Montreal follow, with Halifax lagging.2 P. e$ A+ F. G- B$ A8 R
0 x# E, m O+ O. d
Calgary/Edmonton
+ V$ L0 j- `1 P; t Q* C: ^' ^; L
$ O1 p# c! e3 U# o% S! [2 E Calgary is the Canada's "resource" capital and North America's number-one
' x8 x; ?, A: N6 {, Y% ]boomtown. Survey respondents foresee strong buys for all sectors: 53.5% give a
: U1 g" \' C5 O" L" Tbuy recommendation for Hotel Property, 52.8% for Industrial/Distribution,
2 K2 D" _/ Z$ t' R9 a9 \2 v% T48.1% for Retail and Apartment Residential and 44.6% for Office Property.
: t, l7 g0 U% P0 l# L# M$ t; ?/ rFurthermore, on average the majority of respondents see Calgary For-Sale4 o7 t4 \. P9 K9 T
Homebuilding prospects as very good. Edmonton is closely mimicking the
" W" N1 w0 r0 e( P& gCalgary-style growth wave and as long as demand for energy resources stays( v; ~# F( c# g' }- k+ W! s
strong, this market will continue to do well.
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Vancouver- a9 i) @' j$ n4 }6 x4 a
9 @' |+ {2 {% t: ^# j7 U Vancouver's diversified economy is roaring, the mining industry is8 h+ c; m; z7 ^2 O# V
booming and the city provides a large port and a high-tech center. Outrageous) a5 }! l1 r1 n6 Q9 k- k
real estate prices frustrate homebuyers and commercial investors and the
G: l8 T8 D3 `: {- I$ Mmarket is extremely hard to crack. The 2010 Winter Olympic Games is also a
1 x9 q$ ^ S3 Q5 zgrowth driver and accordingly 44.7% of respondents give Vancouver a buy \3 |, h) T! K# \4 v) @9 a
recommendation for Hotel Property. A further 43.5% give a buy Retail, 41.3%
/ q& P# l- y: R* F! W R& [0 lfor Industrial/Distribution and 36.7% for Office Property followed by 34.1%
0 V' H* V$ `- M- o. e( Dfor Apartment Residential property. Vancouver also ranks in the good to very
8 N2 k6 [( _8 c# R( g% X9 x; g" igood mark for for-sale homebuilding prospects., H5 s, Q2 G7 t6 J( w# L
$ R9 u+ ~2 K3 b" @7 s
Toronto' |4 A( U% c3 D, ?
, c8 E0 T! Z3 N0 ~/ r Toronto ranks as a major global pathway destination, 24-hour city, and
; K. Z1 }' O `- ?& p3 X5 Hmanufacturing hub. Compared with other national financial centers, the city is
" w& n! o5 |8 _0 Hrelatively inexpensive. However, the rising loonie is hurting manufacturing
- }) ^1 H. e9 A n4 [industries, and clouds over the US economy threaten to stall out momentum.' ]1 M8 [1 m6 f4 [$ U
Three new office towers are under construction, adding 3 million new square5 V6 D. N+ [% b) g
feet of office space. Notably, Office (49.1%), Industrial (46.2%) and
+ q7 Y6 q8 N. ^/ C* B5 dApartments (40.8%) are given solid buys.7 L& A7 o5 o8 H6 F2 E) f0 a$ Y4 j
" s6 k. f, H" a* @ Montreal
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6 W& j, C9 m, {; F+ B Montreal continues to face concerns about market stability and overall
0 t6 l4 a7 Y6 |& c, T4 Y. p& }! Vgrowth prospects as major companies no longer choose it as a place to set up$ \' d! ]6 R& ]: t
shop. But, plenty of government offices fill space. Of the larger cities in( j7 @" O" y# n' ]4 |) y
Canada, Montreal ranks lowest as a "buy" recommendation in all real estate( [/ [* \ W2 S
sectors. However, respondents generally rated all Montreal real estate sectors+ `' X" s t4 w$ g$ x7 B8 \7 j6 o
higher as a "hold" recommendation.( T3 ]$ ?7 e! P! t
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The report notes that best bets for investors for the coming years
^1 ]: B7 Z" Tinclude a focus on all property sectors in the high-growth western energy$ f! ]9 [4 ^" t" j I: ^$ {
markets, hold on central business district office space, develop infill condos; b2 }6 J3 X6 Z. _4 H u2 s8 B
near subways stops in Toronto, buy infill sites wherever you can and invest
7 C: H1 W: }; _0 Moverseas. Potter concludes, "Domestic opportunities are too limited at current
$ |8 g5 G" h3 P7 a7 h" a, q7 s5 lprices."/ o" q7 {5 w. u( l6 a* }$ E9 ]( r
A copy of Emerging Trends in Real Estate(R) 2008 is available at
p9 Z* D& l1 M' _. owww.uli.org or www.pwc.com/imre.( L8 k; ]1 W5 l4 s) l! T
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About PricewaterhouseCoopers
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8 a2 V, S: U) P6 f7 ]2 q* Q PricewaterhouseCoopers (www.pwc.com) provides industry-focused assurance,8 \2 ? s6 z( Z f7 N0 `
tax and advisory services to build public trust and enhance value for its: y4 h" a8 C: q" X F, u
clients and their stakeholders. More than 140,000 people in 149 countries" v: O! \) j7 f) K2 O \6 H
across our network share their thinking, experience and solutions to develop
5 ?3 F8 c R. E0 }& S: }fresh perspectives and practical advice. Now celebrating 100 years of8 r# V8 @/ u2 u( L P
excellence in Canada, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP (www.pwc.com/ca) and its
0 ^4 V. E/ x% X) J: yrelated entities have more than 5,200 partners and staff in offices across the
( F% `$ Y7 r# G h, ncountry.2 l) u4 s# _5 t4 f" H
"PricewaterhouseCoopers" refers to PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, an Ontario. v5 q0 R1 K) z S- \
limited liability partnership, or, as the context requires, the
/ i- g9 \* O4 ]+ f1 XPricewaterhouseCoopers global network or other member firms of the network,6 _8 r4 \4 h' U) L! E; e& ^% X
each of which is a separate and independent legal entity.) M: v2 x. f! ]% [
/ S P `) y2 I- X a- x2 F" B5 ? About the Urban Land Institute. ~0 h# ]( D% I2 V# ^
' Q8 |+ T5 a& g* U+ l# P" g; Q The Urban Land Institute (www.uli.org) is a nonprofit education and
; F1 p& }: {% C) o8 _research institute supported by its members. Its mission is to provide
. I, N r9 `, \% I4 v5 G5 Cleadership in the responsible use of land and in sustaining and creating
. i3 M o$ u5 I+ a9 q& ~thriving communities worldwide. Established in 1936, the Institute has more! w- g# U; h1 p$ Y9 A3 M. m
than 38,000 members representing all aspects of land use and development& ], k1 P6 ~/ A! R/ U/ x% J& T
disciplines.. k- l' c+ i7 k8 T% d% |* F
The Urban Land Institute is an active and growing organization in Canada.
( @8 x4 `) n( ~. CWith nearly 700 members across the country, Canada's first ULI District! n3 R$ ]+ d6 n- {; S! d* \5 k3 N
Council was established in Toronto in 2005 and a second District Council is
' _5 A* u w/ }8 {7 Dnow being formed in British Columbia. The Toronto District Council will be
0 p8 j9 ~ ~4 p6 x' xhosting a special event on Emerging Trends in Real Estate on November 20th,
- u2 p" q# m5 a/ ^$ e8 {* y! t+ x2007, featuring Jonathan Miller, the principal author of the report, Blake
2 |( R+ O* v6 @7 IHutcheson, President of CB Richard Ellis Canada Ltd., and George Carras,6 v8 ^ Z' d% u% z2 \; ^
President of RealNet Canada Inc. For more information on this event, please
& [, z! v- {# R; | xcall the Toronto District Council Coordinator at (647) 258-0017, or look on, g3 {( ]+ m. |: E- g) K$ M6 \
the web at www.uli.org/events/index.cfm?id=3066.
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$ p2 ^# s3 H) {1 a& q
' _+ I( A) Z4 Y. p% H* D
* J y- P3 G* j! N" @$ Y9 vFor further information: Carolyn Forest, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP,
' J# f: R. G! L" e9 |: d* v# R(416) 814-5730, carolyn.forest@ca.pwc.com n5 f4 V! L6 k9 l
http://www.newswire.ca/en/releas ... r2007/05/c4080.html
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