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Attention Real Estate Reporters:
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7 x+ p6 c; ]6 u# q9 T( H* vDespite US housing woes Canadian real estate remains upbeat
5 N! k) |% Y1 D: ^ TORONTO, Nov. 5 /CNW/ - Leading real estate experts are predicting the US6 q' ^; r+ p( y4 `/ R2 W
commercial real estate market will slow in 2008 and follow a similar pattern
8 z7 K% a- s6 r$ U- h- Xas the current residential market. However, according to the annual Emerging
3 s) ?# u$ D0 Z* A- ?5 @6 ]9 vTrends in Real Estate 2008 report, released by PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC)
/ L) ~; |. n5 |3 C& vand the Urban Land Institute (ULI), their Canadian counterparts are much more8 H+ T- u: M- T
upbeat.
) J p; w: z, C' D. n Now in its 29th year, Emerging Trends is the oldest, most highly regarded
A2 T& T5 [# l, _ x, U1 aannual industry outlook for the real estate industry. The report reflects' K$ V2 b O+ _& k! _% _2 N2 c
interviews with and surveys of more than 600 of the industry's leading real
" [$ Q) C% I/ M7 eestate experts, including investors, developers, property company, y& r% n Y6 P
representatives, lenders, brokers and consultants in both Canada and the US.) V4 i) S$ l( n' D9 L2 f
Other versions of this report are conducted in countries around the world
4 p _, ]2 H, q3 {* Mincluding Asia Pacific and Europe.$ F" p# G c& {& Z- P
According to Chris Potter, PwC partner and leader of the firm's Canadian
% x U; Q$ ?+ A" T5 [Real Estate Tax practice, Canada benefits from a more conservative investment
; I" s4 l1 i$ ]6 {! Benvironment than the US. "In Canada, institution-dominated markets appear to
. H5 r9 |; U) \# mbe avoiding 'transaction mania', but real estate values have reached record
0 G: `# g) K4 j: `+ ]4 M; [highs and a strong economy has accelerated tenant demand for space."9 E7 S8 o+ E. i8 o- S W+ w( h
According to American respondents, a healthy correction south of the
7 j- F6 g' Q1 t. [. W. l, Wborder will likely bypass long-term investors but penalize late-to-the-game2 w7 B' ?# [5 S
speculators and overleveraged buyers. Canadian respondents to the survey
# {; H1 \4 E8 l$ N+ oremain positive about sidestepping any serious impacts of this possible US) x, P3 ^/ [6 o
correction. Close to 36% view their prospects for profitability in 2008 to be
% p0 Q" i6 R2 p6 o1 o. G0 L+ dvery good and a further 22.4% say they're excellent.: V* Z% H$ D' E
The strongest areas of real estate business activity for Canadian
( p4 l8 f1 z) G; Prespondents is predicted to be within real estate services, followed by0 m' O3 @0 s( ]
commercial/multifamily development and homebuilding/residential land0 N& d! V- _4 w9 W& H5 y& n
development. All property sectors share positive prospects across the country4 U1 U' ?- R) K R! x( m# v
especially industrial and retail with respondents, on average, stating9 D) \$ M/ p; @( x& p/ q) F% J' d
development prospects are expected to be modestly good to good. The
' c% f0 e& D" X6 ~residential for-sale market is also expected to fair well, but might need to
' {, |0 l1 \0 L. u5 g1 ]0 y ftake a breather as homebuilders cannot keep up with the current pace and% ~# q6 D2 @. q- {) P: W) G, x& d: y
single-family housing looks overpriced.( ?' J8 X* ^3 o; V! w
Office stock is seeing limited inventories and dated product fill up with) o9 l6 y! I2 K- k/ A2 Y
tenants. Except for Montreal, where office vacancies are nearing 9%. Canadian) O# S" @" O) ?7 x" ^8 A
metropolitan areas boast below 5% vacancies, and rents have room to push. D1 N1 t7 v( A- a% K' D7 ]
higher. The survey is also showing that costs and land scarcity is limiting# p' T; F. f1 Z: P! j9 r
new development. Hotel investment and development prospects are modestly good,; e8 Y5 Q' F% ]3 ^/ s* x# g' _
and most respondents rate this sector either a buy or a hold. Rental
0 U. `# ]8 k, ~6 Y, k7 Wapartments are doing well in major cities with high immigration flows. Primary$ g4 R. Q( u8 p( k0 Q% G
western cities - Vancouver, Calgary, and Edmonton - are veering toward housing1 W) `& }0 }: D7 G, I) Y
shortages as workers, attracted by a plethora of well-paying jobs, pour into
" k! C" M! _' Y7 B3 P$ wthe energy zone. Apartment occupancies are soaring in these areas. Development
9 I, F. T7 w9 g9 t2 K4 O% F. D9 Yin other regions remains difficult because of costs and land scarcity.
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Canadian Markets to Watch- J: D8 V1 d1 U _+ V' [
- M3 ?7 ^, j6 d1 Q: J: K7 E& ?" P The report comments on how Canadians like to live and work in central0 m9 u# S. `/ S ~
cities, as long as they can afford it. If housing is too pricey in 24-hour* L- Z8 Y6 _( r2 Z: V, B% O
neighbourhoods, people move to inner-ring suburbs or beyond and commute back$ ~$ F0 r+ @/ H. N! Y- a' p
into the cores. Investors, especially the institutions, are concentrated in
X: O) h- A, V% _; F' Qdowntown areas too. Planners and developers focus on infill and more vertical' _+ G P" |0 j' l7 k0 @0 |1 ]
projects, which reinforce the urban cores. The hot-growth energy cities out9 ]( ^* i* S' l3 b1 v$ e# h
west - Calgary and Edmonton - score the highest ratings for investment
/ i7 z' R ?7 u. \prospects, development, and for-sale housing, although it is not certain
2 E8 T! }% C3 `% {' Z T6 uwhether the recent announcements on royalties will have any effect on this.
1 l1 v3 g- g# }, n4 a( ^Toronto, Canada's premier global pathway city, and Vancouver also have high
6 }; w% o( a. _* Mratings. Ottawa and Montreal follow, with Halifax lagging.; i0 y d* B2 Y0 N
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Calgary/Edmonton
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Calgary is the Canada's "resource" capital and North America's number-one
: T& l! @3 g: ~0 S* ]boomtown. Survey respondents foresee strong buys for all sectors: 53.5% give a
: E- |- L; s) J$ }$ J: Q, v$ Abuy recommendation for Hotel Property, 52.8% for Industrial/Distribution,
) ~4 c: O* b3 P/ u7 C4 M/ h48.1% for Retail and Apartment Residential and 44.6% for Office Property.
) Y7 k/ [( \$ J9 @1 i+ ^Furthermore, on average the majority of respondents see Calgary For-Sale
' L( L/ p: ^( M# ]. LHomebuilding prospects as very good. Edmonton is closely mimicking the
# |% W; D4 o' x& ?) k/ xCalgary-style growth wave and as long as demand for energy resources stays' ]% g% R( p, R
strong, this market will continue to do well.; c. @+ k" k8 W
: P" i% v& b- O+ M; f$ b7 [ Vancouver% ^. z& Y+ ~8 G( C( X7 v
% p ?' v3 A! q( { Vancouver's diversified economy is roaring, the mining industry is0 v$ K0 d4 G- Q# x! P3 E
booming and the city provides a large port and a high-tech center. Outrageous" B& ^$ P6 ^& w3 m
real estate prices frustrate homebuyers and commercial investors and the
1 E7 u E5 I8 \' i$ ~% i# ^market is extremely hard to crack. The 2010 Winter Olympic Games is also a
% d- _; [* t. l, b& |0 r; r( Sgrowth driver and accordingly 44.7% of respondents give Vancouver a buy
) o* r4 ]9 r/ {9 b! a# e5 D# Erecommendation for Hotel Property. A further 43.5% give a buy Retail, 41.3%
3 ~) P: z! Y# u1 l( Z/ |% Qfor Industrial/Distribution and 36.7% for Office Property followed by 34.1%
* e& T0 H5 G$ t9 P" }2 d |for Apartment Residential property. Vancouver also ranks in the good to very
- t$ h( y7 s |* b7 k8 Zgood mark for for-sale homebuilding prospects.
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9 r i; u" d% J; a6 T Toronto5 A4 J1 a# F0 z. N9 t' }
. R0 s+ w" W" j( g1 x' q3 |7 C! e& P( M Toronto ranks as a major global pathway destination, 24-hour city, and. J: d, u' U, s
manufacturing hub. Compared with other national financial centers, the city is8 I6 w/ D# _6 Y- o* @7 t6 G, }
relatively inexpensive. However, the rising loonie is hurting manufacturing
5 e5 ]& a7 z9 j8 [# E! Sindustries, and clouds over the US economy threaten to stall out momentum. @, n) ^/ v% F5 K* B2 v
Three new office towers are under construction, adding 3 million new square
! d4 z$ P: ]' k/ O' tfeet of office space. Notably, Office (49.1%), Industrial (46.2%) and
! a: V" G: ^4 L, e" k3 ]Apartments (40.8%) are given solid buys.
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$ b4 O( ~/ R+ L) z5 e Montreal
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Montreal continues to face concerns about market stability and overall
' l7 U' M% Y+ v& |growth prospects as major companies no longer choose it as a place to set up
c. T% J& G9 ?0 n+ g( k' E; Fshop. But, plenty of government offices fill space. Of the larger cities in- @" C: h* q; w$ b3 q l0 }
Canada, Montreal ranks lowest as a "buy" recommendation in all real estate) D3 C# f" h6 d+ k4 k/ f
sectors. However, respondents generally rated all Montreal real estate sectors
9 W% n+ x9 I3 S" w2 P- o5 bhigher as a "hold" recommendation.. {3 j- u+ S# T I
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The report notes that best bets for investors for the coming years- {3 ~6 X) j; C
include a focus on all property sectors in the high-growth western energy
' r9 m% S' {/ i( G% `4 t' Ymarkets, hold on central business district office space, develop infill condos
T0 U' ]( I2 j( j# W# [1 W1 unear subways stops in Toronto, buy infill sites wherever you can and invest
: b% N: C0 a! B2 J1 [overseas. Potter concludes, "Domestic opportunities are too limited at current
, r3 x5 B$ N/ _prices."
- f( o# X; i2 Y! J A copy of Emerging Trends in Real Estate(R) 2008 is available at5 R+ ~' W: N5 v$ U8 N. R' |+ `/ p
www.uli.org or www.pwc.com/imre.
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About PricewaterhouseCoopers
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PricewaterhouseCoopers (www.pwc.com) provides industry-focused assurance,5 i$ x( [: n3 e& `
tax and advisory services to build public trust and enhance value for its9 i. K: C# [' ~ M5 F
clients and their stakeholders. More than 140,000 people in 149 countries
, D" i5 @% L5 |8 Cacross our network share their thinking, experience and solutions to develop; T I& _9 p9 S; _
fresh perspectives and practical advice. Now celebrating 100 years of. W8 k# h( l% A; c& q- H
excellence in Canada, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP (www.pwc.com/ca) and its1 O8 }! s8 G _% b/ P9 M% b3 K+ t) V
related entities have more than 5,200 partners and staff in offices across the
) Z" e- G; m% t- l- K' d; jcountry.$ D+ {/ N! Z) X
"PricewaterhouseCoopers" refers to PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, an Ontario
u' [# w& w" D2 ~9 _* u A3 `5 vlimited liability partnership, or, as the context requires, the$ A9 w j' F& _# ~, b
PricewaterhouseCoopers global network or other member firms of the network,/ e% g/ `$ {( Q. K A2 n0 x
each of which is a separate and independent legal entity.
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About the Urban Land Institute
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The Urban Land Institute (www.uli.org) is a nonprofit education and
1 B$ M. D! ?4 I; j+ Cresearch institute supported by its members. Its mission is to provide
0 ~" ?, R% N+ E# L- Oleadership in the responsible use of land and in sustaining and creating3 I$ }4 H6 L6 ]) \
thriving communities worldwide. Established in 1936, the Institute has more
w# o) s: u$ M: q1 dthan 38,000 members representing all aspects of land use and development
! g; m8 h; z7 y0 H! { @disciplines.3 I* p [2 V- i0 F6 c8 m/ M
The Urban Land Institute is an active and growing organization in Canada.
, }$ A4 j3 a9 O% \0 rWith nearly 700 members across the country, Canada's first ULI District: @6 m8 ?( u8 C d5 }8 O6 e# l
Council was established in Toronto in 2005 and a second District Council is
- J1 H1 x6 B5 {$ H* n! }now being formed in British Columbia. The Toronto District Council will be
, N% Z5 r# H1 w; zhosting a special event on Emerging Trends in Real Estate on November 20th,/ @( p3 P5 q2 S
2007, featuring Jonathan Miller, the principal author of the report, Blake0 w$ A' e$ u, u8 K( A+ l* Q
Hutcheson, President of CB Richard Ellis Canada Ltd., and George Carras,
; L2 C: |* o1 p4 Z5 n" [3 }President of RealNet Canada Inc. For more information on this event, please- y. h9 k, t. p: t9 Z& U i1 D# R
call the Toronto District Council Coordinator at (647) 258-0017, or look on% J; K5 ?) [9 W0 Q- ?6 r
the web at www.uli.org/events/index.cfm?id=3066.
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2 ^/ |1 J9 g4 uFor further information: Carolyn Forest, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP,5 B# o& x/ z/ u8 Y) e6 W- j$ H
(416) 814-5730, carolyn.forest@ca.pwc.com
5 i4 t! e. Q" k. u1 O5 h- i+ Whttp://www.newswire.ca/en/releas ... r2007/05/c4080.html- C& {$ {) ?5 R6 q5 d1 t) i
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