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Attention Real Estate Reporters:
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Despite US housing woes Canadian real estate remains upbeat
6 r4 y+ q3 A8 w: j2 g) V. v! Y TORONTO, Nov. 5 /CNW/ - Leading real estate experts are predicting the US1 o2 K5 v; H7 N
commercial real estate market will slow in 2008 and follow a similar pattern! U' G) M. G, a1 v2 A& ~
as the current residential market. However, according to the annual Emerging' @) g5 G) V$ R2 R+ c6 y+ E( w
Trends in Real Estate 2008 report, released by PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC)7 @3 s8 R: [+ f( ]
and the Urban Land Institute (ULI), their Canadian counterparts are much more6 B! ^' r8 T- T0 d
upbeat.
, I' _$ G3 X$ r" b* F. @" X* `3 H Now in its 29th year, Emerging Trends is the oldest, most highly regarded
v% l, |1 l- Bannual industry outlook for the real estate industry. The report reflects+ q; a! c4 k/ r8 O& n2 d
interviews with and surveys of more than 600 of the industry's leading real( ]% r$ `% |. @5 X# u8 ]% n
estate experts, including investors, developers, property company& l- Y/ \* @! D* e; h
representatives, lenders, brokers and consultants in both Canada and the US.5 @$ [" l( @5 O" H0 v( r
Other versions of this report are conducted in countries around the world& T, l0 ^7 I! M9 J2 i
including Asia Pacific and Europe.' L9 ]8 b1 M K4 A, [( e( v2 ]: p8 ~# G
According to Chris Potter, PwC partner and leader of the firm's Canadian
: k/ u$ y' c2 Q: AReal Estate Tax practice, Canada benefits from a more conservative investment
8 |# q/ j6 P& z: G4 m, {- M: M- Yenvironment than the US. "In Canada, institution-dominated markets appear to
9 v+ Y; ~7 s- ], {& K9 \be avoiding 'transaction mania', but real estate values have reached record
' G: S$ F. f$ Qhighs and a strong economy has accelerated tenant demand for space."
- h2 T. ~. I2 f* d According to American respondents, a healthy correction south of the
) Q' S7 _, ]( g5 s5 R* ~4 ]& c% q1 Oborder will likely bypass long-term investors but penalize late-to-the-game5 d5 f" [. F& e8 u, x# L
speculators and overleveraged buyers. Canadian respondents to the survey+ m3 O7 K' f, O6 u+ K0 w
remain positive about sidestepping any serious impacts of this possible US
* Q9 k1 b! s5 f8 Gcorrection. Close to 36% view their prospects for profitability in 2008 to be, t k5 O6 f- L0 V& s v+ {2 Q$ Z6 i+ Z
very good and a further 22.4% say they're excellent.
6 M1 Y# O6 R5 F+ { The strongest areas of real estate business activity for Canadian
# q1 g1 m' ^/ n! u3 prespondents is predicted to be within real estate services, followed by
4 k. R0 S/ m1 h& a) icommercial/multifamily development and homebuilding/residential land7 Y6 y* C" M3 D; K0 l; _
development. All property sectors share positive prospects across the country
: T9 y' d7 l& B2 despecially industrial and retail with respondents, on average, stating7 j* I- N* ` U, Z W2 t! i
development prospects are expected to be modestly good to good. The) T& t$ A( f4 y3 Z" t
residential for-sale market is also expected to fair well, but might need to! j. ]% b" }/ O
take a breather as homebuilders cannot keep up with the current pace and1 X+ d+ T& T& ?2 n! D5 |6 E
single-family housing looks overpriced.
) {( C1 H- }9 Z6 u Office stock is seeing limited inventories and dated product fill up with
( w F+ q: f7 d6 D4 W* G8 Z% htenants. Except for Montreal, where office vacancies are nearing 9%. Canadian
! X, @9 ?: U5 l0 L7 x% v5 vmetropolitan areas boast below 5% vacancies, and rents have room to push& I$ C- t3 i1 s3 ?6 E
higher. The survey is also showing that costs and land scarcity is limiting/ M5 p; w/ {* C! u; I: T1 e
new development. Hotel investment and development prospects are modestly good,
9 X( r# [6 C5 Y8 e+ [+ gand most respondents rate this sector either a buy or a hold. Rental9 i b6 e0 @$ e# S, {+ a2 R
apartments are doing well in major cities with high immigration flows. Primary
7 |. x0 Y& l. G3 e5 x9 n7 }; Mwestern cities - Vancouver, Calgary, and Edmonton - are veering toward housing) o$ S+ D$ \& {4 p6 h
shortages as workers, attracted by a plethora of well-paying jobs, pour into ?- T, `8 _2 v9 }. C
the energy zone. Apartment occupancies are soaring in these areas. Development4 P) F- E! l G
in other regions remains difficult because of costs and land scarcity.
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0 v! i. _! u, F, r2 Z Canadian Markets to Watch
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The report comments on how Canadians like to live and work in central
) R+ U% l7 }2 z" d+ h$ B: Y% G! ccities, as long as they can afford it. If housing is too pricey in 24-hour6 Z; h/ f1 v9 s2 ?4 I* D/ F
neighbourhoods, people move to inner-ring suburbs or beyond and commute back) L3 b- q5 q& o& b
into the cores. Investors, especially the institutions, are concentrated in7 _$ r0 w! m6 M" s4 Y' @; X
downtown areas too. Planners and developers focus on infill and more vertical
8 m2 ^ k# k5 @8 L' Yprojects, which reinforce the urban cores. The hot-growth energy cities out
7 ]; n! z D3 }2 awest - Calgary and Edmonton - score the highest ratings for investment
; {* x. I5 V$ m7 n9 [" M; ^# Iprospects, development, and for-sale housing, although it is not certain" \7 l$ R- O2 s, ~0 o) Y+ o+ }
whether the recent announcements on royalties will have any effect on this.2 s: b2 m, S r; c, k4 t
Toronto, Canada's premier global pathway city, and Vancouver also have high9 A6 b0 A1 M! W9 I2 y6 T2 Z
ratings. Ottawa and Montreal follow, with Halifax lagging.7 x0 k( L6 V: t* ?& r3 o+ J9 q% B6 W
3 y6 U, C- u- c4 j/ D9 A$ G; b3 m Calgary/Edmonton
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Calgary is the Canada's "resource" capital and North America's number-one
* L t* P$ z, @: Kboomtown. Survey respondents foresee strong buys for all sectors: 53.5% give a
7 M" S2 K7 S0 M' |6 |+ Hbuy recommendation for Hotel Property, 52.8% for Industrial/Distribution,
, C% v8 @( Q2 d+ z7 t48.1% for Retail and Apartment Residential and 44.6% for Office Property.
3 I! x! q, N* pFurthermore, on average the majority of respondents see Calgary For-Sale
8 y% ~7 f2 u+ Q; D3 u3 C$ VHomebuilding prospects as very good. Edmonton is closely mimicking the
: O( [) F( R( k4 r$ C( dCalgary-style growth wave and as long as demand for energy resources stays' f: @! W' r/ t
strong, this market will continue to do well.
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+ ^0 ~# o: Q$ H# q Vancouver
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Vancouver's diversified economy is roaring, the mining industry is
7 g' f+ X8 {' Jbooming and the city provides a large port and a high-tech center. Outrageous9 O! u6 ?/ N# o5 @ u/ I: A4 {
real estate prices frustrate homebuyers and commercial investors and the
8 [+ t4 Y5 x" p9 l# V7 B* j% Emarket is extremely hard to crack. The 2010 Winter Olympic Games is also a
# f8 | N. E. W0 q3 ?8 g8 M6 Z$ agrowth driver and accordingly 44.7% of respondents give Vancouver a buy6 Y0 v9 ~9 c/ j( C
recommendation for Hotel Property. A further 43.5% give a buy Retail, 41.3%* }) A+ ?/ z7 V. L" L
for Industrial/Distribution and 36.7% for Office Property followed by 34.1%
) m2 D7 c; F8 U- I8 J: Yfor Apartment Residential property. Vancouver also ranks in the good to very* l& L$ X% W$ ^& k$ U+ h
good mark for for-sale homebuilding prospects.$ D7 I: E1 D! p) h8 w
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Toronto
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Toronto ranks as a major global pathway destination, 24-hour city, and, U( [# a7 l! F8 i
manufacturing hub. Compared with other national financial centers, the city is
6 m( r7 t2 F$ q9 r" e$ rrelatively inexpensive. However, the rising loonie is hurting manufacturing
1 j9 [) n* Y. N- aindustries, and clouds over the US economy threaten to stall out momentum.
4 l4 D2 y" F1 a5 f7 Y$ Y$ CThree new office towers are under construction, adding 3 million new square
9 d p( B7 ^; B, o/ A, ]0 }- qfeet of office space. Notably, Office (49.1%), Industrial (46.2%) and
+ K4 b% C: r! _. v; AApartments (40.8%) are given solid buys.9 E1 [9 J( ~1 d9 j5 w( C
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Montreal
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' L" `" G* b5 ^1 \& z Montreal continues to face concerns about market stability and overall
2 ~& \; c; g+ ?( u& g0 Q+ c: i5 Dgrowth prospects as major companies no longer choose it as a place to set up& O5 t& ~4 `/ ?$ p2 ?
shop. But, plenty of government offices fill space. Of the larger cities in
3 O6 g4 F2 W# x2 G: w& XCanada, Montreal ranks lowest as a "buy" recommendation in all real estate
3 D7 }7 p% T. ?2 I g2 e5 bsectors. However, respondents generally rated all Montreal real estate sectors8 Y/ N% q7 e2 h' b; @5 f
higher as a "hold" recommendation.
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The report notes that best bets for investors for the coming years2 G- A$ |0 {" N' J& v
include a focus on all property sectors in the high-growth western energy
% w' s* W6 R; @# n Z' D1 [/ N j1 cmarkets, hold on central business district office space, develop infill condos
[ L" ~& T. [$ j3 @near subways stops in Toronto, buy infill sites wherever you can and invest4 o1 b, Z9 s4 S* f& x" _1 `* h) T
overseas. Potter concludes, "Domestic opportunities are too limited at current5 k$ ^9 x$ f5 X f4 _5 P: f6 o1 m$ K
prices."
5 x3 a' J# S3 z' ^! Z A copy of Emerging Trends in Real Estate(R) 2008 is available at
5 p2 v/ Z8 d" M1 l( V* Uwww.uli.org or www.pwc.com/imre.
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8 |6 f' F; r* \; T, a2 O About PricewaterhouseCoopers/ ?: p9 T( J9 h# S7 n; u( M. O
. \: q8 v" j2 q2 A) s PricewaterhouseCoopers (www.pwc.com) provides industry-focused assurance,
% ]; y! ^8 ^3 V4 ~1 Z& j" e6 z4 otax and advisory services to build public trust and enhance value for its
2 o1 @5 O+ f: r3 V& g, Aclients and their stakeholders. More than 140,000 people in 149 countries) g& |6 z5 X: t2 l( k; {
across our network share their thinking, experience and solutions to develop! c( q! q3 b- j; x0 v
fresh perspectives and practical advice. Now celebrating 100 years of
5 Z3 A& t3 O, I6 s" L8 A0 e; Aexcellence in Canada, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP (www.pwc.com/ca) and its; r7 ]+ y: L' M/ F& h# L6 R
related entities have more than 5,200 partners and staff in offices across the
) x [; }+ ?) w$ A+ {% Scountry.
( V5 w/ v, p2 w: O) M9 z "PricewaterhouseCoopers" refers to PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, an Ontario# k o* ]5 e4 S$ x/ l
limited liability partnership, or, as the context requires, the
" j2 f& d& A2 L6 n6 W3 mPricewaterhouseCoopers global network or other member firms of the network,
: C2 E4 b1 s6 r+ b/ }each of which is a separate and independent legal entity.+ r( h( Q! a) z, n6 z
5 V, i- A. q) L About the Urban Land Institute
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$ R5 J0 @( r8 I The Urban Land Institute (www.uli.org) is a nonprofit education and3 b: S4 g) k9 y, B6 C
research institute supported by its members. Its mission is to provide. `6 O9 o1 @' F8 b5 j, _9 }
leadership in the responsible use of land and in sustaining and creating0 n8 k3 Y9 a9 A4 f
thriving communities worldwide. Established in 1936, the Institute has more0 D- M0 @. d. J/ h/ g7 t% e
than 38,000 members representing all aspects of land use and development) ^, [$ p1 U# r( `/ @* p
disciplines.
8 Z& d9 l+ Q R( W; [' W The Urban Land Institute is an active and growing organization in Canada.; M$ k+ p% g& N( m9 C7 y
With nearly 700 members across the country, Canada's first ULI District
) ]! i+ r: G' v4 rCouncil was established in Toronto in 2005 and a second District Council is
- o. i' f# _ T* qnow being formed in British Columbia. The Toronto District Council will be: e2 Q- U2 [4 J
hosting a special event on Emerging Trends in Real Estate on November 20th, ]: m( R% P' p {1 _& S
2007, featuring Jonathan Miller, the principal author of the report, Blake
+ o: p0 o) R) L1 q* MHutcheson, President of CB Richard Ellis Canada Ltd., and George Carras,
/ N& U0 ^2 Z6 M8 g% hPresident of RealNet Canada Inc. For more information on this event, please
# n& [' t R! ?1 g5 ncall the Toronto District Council Coordinator at (647) 258-0017, or look on& y- ~9 ]9 s4 M3 L* k+ g1 j% F6 H
the web at www.uli.org/events/index.cfm?id=3066.
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For further information: Carolyn Forest, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, |7 q' T9 z9 A- Q
(416) 814-5730, carolyn.forest@ca.pwc.com f# K0 I( F' ~
http://www.newswire.ca/en/releas ... r2007/05/c4080.html+ \# Z" O2 x" S8 g
9 I" p6 |" B7 G- r1 J- p: z[ 本帖最后由 QWE321 于 2007-11-13 09:08 编辑 ] |
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