No Crash for Canada Real Market, CIBC said it again

catty

Canadians haven't put themselves deep enough in debt to cause a U.S.-style housing market bust, a CIBC World Markets economist says.
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# O9 w2 u: M9 d  F! FIn a report issued Tuesday, Benjamin Tal asks: "Where's the trigger for a Canadian house price crash?" He concludes there isn't one.
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3 _0 n% r7 Q* B7 R, W"To be sure, house prices in Canada will continue to ease in the coming months," he says. "But the triggers that led to a free fall in Canadian real estate markets in the early 1990s and today in U.S. markets are nowhere to be found."
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2 I' Z' ]9 a0 Y* aAs he sees it, Canadian home buyers never got as reckless as Americans.

"By almost any measure, American households entered the current housing crisis from a more vulnerable position relative to their Canadian counterparts — carrying a heavier debt load and a much lighter net worth position. And when it comes to real estate speculation, Canada was not really a player.
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"But even more important than the absolute and relative level of debt is the distribution of debt. At the peak of the cycle, subprime and Alt-A mortgages accounted for no less than 33 per cent of originations in the U.S. market. In Canada we estimate that at the peak, non-conforming mortgages reached 5.4 per cent of originations."
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# t7 ?0 H% Q" w& D4 B' {Subprime mortgages are those given to the least creditworthy borrowers. Alt-A mortgages are considered a step higher, although the category includes so-called liars' loans in which borrowers are not required to verify their earnings or assets.
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# ?! O7 V9 p, l- k% ?$ N- Q: n! TTal says the U.S. meltdown is basically a subprime story.
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3 n" m7 |9 e2 x/ s"Eradicate subprime from the U.S. housing market and, instead of the most severe house price meltdown since the great depression, you get a trivial moderate cyclical slowing — something along the line of what we are currently experiencing in Canada."
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" [4 K+ _) y  m; h当然，历史已经证明CIBC他自己在市场预测上没有信誉拉，现在关键的是哪个是导致灾难的Trigger.
看到有个同学已经转过次文章啦，没看到，抱歉。

# M# s7 G4 b! x/ @% c5 }) x[ 本帖最后由 catty 于 2008-10-1 09:32 编辑 ]