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Gas prices are rising while crude prices are falling. What gives?
G! G& N; W4 w9 e9 Y0 aPublished: Friday, January 16, 2009 | 5:11 PM ET
! N R2 h4 z& B& A8 YCanadian Press NewsItem/NewsComponent/NewsLines/ByLine3 P6 c$ X' Q) M8 |( i
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CALGARY - With crude oil prices falling, motorists may wonder why gasoline prices are heading in the other direction.: C/ O1 v7 q9 v, j6 F
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The average Canadian pump price rose to around 81.75 cents per litre Friday - more than three cents more than a week ago, according to the price-tracking website Gasbuddy.com.
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' m0 e% l* K% E3 _% \1 [/ wCalgarians were paying on average 81.5 cents per litre - about a four-cent jump in just one day.+ D: h& o& b6 Z* b" d
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"I don't actually understand it and I do work in the oil and gas industry, so I'm perplexed about it," said Paul Lawnikanis as he filled up his truck at a Calgary Esso station, which was selling gas for 80.4 cents per litre.2 R% S \ ^- @! w+ g, x0 L
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But Friday's price is still a welcome respite from the $1.40-level gas many Canadian cities faced during the summer.) z. G1 W/ A+ M
* r' S( H7 d* z, L$ m5 M"I definitely changed my habits in the summer. I was going to go on two road trips, which I did not go on by virtue of the fact that the prices were so high," Lawnikanis said.+ S+ ?; h& ~8 z, ]# i" Z& T8 u
0 z! N% _, T8 v"Because of the fact that the prices are so reasonable, I've actually taken the liberty to drive more. I've really enjoyed doing more driving."
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In Toronto Friday, pump prices were 80.9 cents per litre. On Thursday they were 79.4 and a week ago they were 74.2.
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Vancouver, which has higher gas taxes than other cities, has prices of 94.7 per litre, up from 87.5 a week ago.5 _# [# i/ w0 U' [! G# Q& `# e5 s
9 W# j! O( @8 z L; [/ ?7 i2 S6 q8 c# pThe price of crude oil, the main ingredient in gasoline, has been dropping steeply since it's peak of $147 reached in July.3 r" l/ s' @3 s1 T7 b5 c+ i7 p+ T
- j, [2 p( b, sThe February contract for crude oil settled at US$36.51 on the New York Mercantile Exchange, down from more than US$50 a barrel a week ago.9 d6 |, r$ ]9 {! {4 X$ |
0 R) F/ o4 A' @& B) o/ ~"Crude oil is an important input into the distillation of gasoline. But there's a lot of other factors as well," said Todd Hirsch, senior economist with ATB Financial in Calgary.3 M8 g. P5 u' }9 \2 v8 g# A
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Industry players would say they have to account for transportation, marketing and other expenses - not to mention taxes, which vary from province to province.
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But those oil companies - private-sector players in a free-market system - also want to turn a profit.2 ]# ]/ [5 T! R2 a1 i
( v- R% v5 K. v4 i! E# Q"Without question those gasoline prices are going to be the highest they think they can get away with without their competitor undercutting them," said Hirsch.4 Z/ y: c) e" p4 m6 c/ d3 T
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"They're out to maximize their profits for their shareholders. I don't think there's anything evil going on in them trying to get the highest price. Every retailer in the country does this."
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3 f% g S2 J) d1 a; v8 jAnother explanation could be that the February contract for crude oil expires on Tuesday, and the contract for March is already significantly higher, settling at $42.57 on Friday.8 F) b) m& }& Z! L8 y/ t" X
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"(The oil companies) might have realized that while prices were low in the last couple of weeks, they knew that there was going to be a correction," Hirsch said.
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Hirsch expects pump prices to bounce between 60 and 90 cents per litre over the next few months, but not retesting the heights of last summer.) N# d+ T) S/ L' r! \
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"I'm not seeing a lot of strengthening in crude oil prices over the next six months," he said.
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"In the next six months I would expect to see gasoline prices more or less in the range they're in now, maybe firming up a little bit towards the spring and summer driving season as demand rises."
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But Gasbuddy.com co-founder Jason Toews said he sees gas prices going higher than their current levels because of a slowdown in Alberta's oilsands and expected production cuts by the Organization of Petroleum Exploring Countries.0 Z; ]1 X# {6 W2 r h% L/ A
* H# J/ r" V- [# S"With lower supplies of crude oil in the market it's going to push crude oil prices up, especially if the economy starts to recover a little bit," Toews said.- r! l0 |9 n# r4 e8 M
; ]. K- R: L: m/ n6 g"Once the summer demand for gasoline comes, we're going to see gas prices go up quite a bit from where they are right now. We're going to see a return of a $1 per litre gas for sure and we may even see up to $1.20 per litre." |
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