TD Bank:OVERPRICED AND OVERBUILT: CANADIAN HOUSING

依勒特

During Canada’s “Housing Boom”, which ran roughly
from 2002 to 2008, unsustainable price increases drove
unsustainable levels of building. Our view is that house
prices exceeded the value of housing that was justified by
fundamentals by approximately 9% nationwide. This
overpricing compelled a level of residential construction
; Q6 B+ N* X7 n$ Gthat exceeded its fundamental-justified level by approximately
12%, an excess that was exaggerated in the past
; S5 C- X- {/ |3 f' f" i8 `three years.
By “overpricing” we mean that prices detached from
their fundamentals, as witnessed by a steep erosion of
affordability. The current unwinding of house prices reflects
+ v8 X# D4 Z0 O; [4 D6 Wboth a cyclical downturn and a return of house prices
to fundamentally justified levels.
We consider “overbuilding” of two forms: “demanddriven”
where homebuyers buy up too many houses and
. J7 ~" D3 e3 ~5 c' fthat this demand cannot be sustained; and “supply-driven”
- Q, U) \3 S2 m, xwhere builders accumulate excessive inventories. Although
4 N# H# c' G# R& c3 A5 Y7 tthere is evidence of both types, we contend that Canada’s
“overbuilding” was mainly of the first type, where
homebuyers pushed homebuilding to an unsustainable pitch
7 j8 c7 t$ z1 k% s, ?that is now being rapidly reined in.
; p) `6 `' Y8 K; L% n2 P2 xWhile most markets won’t face U.S.-style overhangs,
the construction of too many new homes over the boom
means a deepened slump. This overbuilding will likely weigh
1 O2 w# H* j' |) zon markets over the next few years. Even as Canada recovers
from the cyclical downturn, house price growth will
remain choppy and new residential construction will be
8 m1 p* E8 i  Z$ B- V: udampened, owing to this structural weakness. Construction
is now undershooting fundamentals and we expect this
to persist over 2009 to 2011. We anticipate that nationwide
  ^' s0 N& U9 [  q0 K9 i! L/ sresidential construction will fall further to around
125,000 starts over 2009 with a trough around 115,000 units
4 ^, _" B2 V3 N0 `$ R6 \in the fourth quarter.
To quantify the degree of overpricing and overbuilding,
  q/ G7 R7 o1 `4 M3 u! x+ {! v% Ewe first develop an empirical model, based on long-run
fundamentals of house prices and housing starts in each
province. Affordability is the key concept behind home
4 ]( d, Y- A/ c, Q$ }; }values since house prices should track incomes over the
long-run. Since homebuilders build to meet demand, we
regard housing prices and household formation as the drivers
; I) W& o  W: O3 }. r+ o/ N$ Rof residential construction.
To examine the degree of overbuilding, we employ a
“counter-factual,” asking what level of residential construction
3 X5 O# X: E8 o. T- r# Mwould have occurred if housing had been priced
optimally. We find that actual homebuilding exceeded this
# H" m0 c& Z. B6 Ifundamental-justified level by about 12%. Although new
) M& r7 i( K$ F% o" V/ gunits were being absorbed, homebuyers simply bought too
many houses at prices that exceeded fundamentals.
* |5 S8 y, C; h+ Z% N0 g& m/ fRegionally, we see the greatest strains on the Prairies,
  d; [, N& V, y0 V" Vwhere housing demand will further contract under waning
: @# d8 t( W0 upopulation inflows. Saskatoon, Calgary and Edmonton are
already witnessing surges in their unsold new homes at the
very time that the resale market has swung into strong
' J% [, O6 k$ t9 j4 Gbuyers’ territory. Homebuilding in the Atlantic provinces
9 A3 g1 q/ I, p$ [has been relatively balanced but, while not plagued by structural
8 i! B2 m; ]6 q1 Z: g! Pweakness, will be singed by the downturn nonetheless.
; c: c4 h% h  \6 sQuébec shows signs of strain – especially given the
strange accumulation of unabsorbed multiples on l’Île de
6 p; F2 A- W) t# SMontréal – but recent building has been relatively balanced,
given the province’s history of under-building and low ownership
rates. While Ontario homebuilding will reel from a
cyclical downturn, the degree of structural weakness appears
" r1 D$ O' b" q$ G0 wlimited – with the important exception of the Toronto
condo market. Both in Toronto and Vancouver, historically
$ i) ?1 p8 Z+ Z! Uhigh levels of apartment-style units presently under
) T6 v0 E8 C, B1 @: a+ `/ U# g, \. ]construction mean that record numbers of condos will
reach completion during 2009. If absorption rates fall, as
cyclical factors would indicate, condo inventories could
/ [+ e1 b1 d8 e6 i- s0 s2 o$ Mspike severely – particularly in Vancouver. However, while
residential construction in B.C. will definitely droop, we
* Q$ G; L0 ^" k0 }) a6 ]3 w; ianticipate that the West Coast will continue to benefit from
, t  a+ @  w3 k: E' Binter-provincial and international migration over the coming
years, which, along with improvements in affordability,
+ B  ~/ C: v9 Rwill alleviate some of the pressure from overbuilding.
. n6 Q5 c8 J/ g; kOVERPRICED AND OVERBUILT: CANADIAN HOUSING
MARKET RETURNS TO FUNDAMENTALS
8 Y+ ^( ]5 A' G3 Q; xGrant Bishop, Economist
416-982-8063
2 w5 A3 _: ?! }% _0 ~Pascal Gauthier, Economist
6 C5 E' \0 o: F' U0 Y* s4 A416-944-5730
' h0 x3 b- q8 F8 Q; U4 O
" u/ y* j% u3 \" h. H6 Ehttp://www.td.com/economics/special/gb0409_housing_exec.pdf

宋兵乙