市场综述

小曲

4 l: C& n& o* f9 N
Signature Market Roundup


3 i( c7 x9 o9 h. dEric Bushell
Senior Vice-President,
Portfolio Management
! q; ]& o& h$ n* yand Chief Investment Officer

自lehman倒台后美国第二阶段的风险投资的恢复到四月底基本结束了。第一阶段是从2009三月到2010四月， 但被欧洲的债务危机和美国的减慢中断了。第二阶段是从美国联邦储备局2010年九月份开始的非传统的缓解政策，被称为QE2. 这个运作造成投资者抛售美金抢购房地产，商品期货，贷款，和股票。现在这个政策趋近结束，美金趋于稳定，这会帮助美国财政缩减，解除政卷市场的压力。面对美国QE2政策的成功，而世界其他地区都非常不稳定，现在可能是时候将投资定位到中性风险。
% w) K' x4 D7 Z
# k, e9 q' t3 S6 [8 ~5 c' PThe second phase of the post-Lehman recovery in risky assets
may be drawing to a close in April 2011. The fi rst phase
ran from March 2009 to April 2010 and was halted by the
1 d( {$ p: e8 Z) }! n/ j) PEuropean sovereign crisis and a U.S. slowdown. The second
' P! r; m) Q2 N3 k4 ^) [- N0 Uphase began with the U.S. Federal Reserve launching an
5 ~8 M3 e; }6 K8 O8 j4 F- nunconventional easing policy dubbed QE2 in September
- |- \6 O6 X* o$ k! `- K$ \2010. This action saw investors exit the dollar and scramble
: v+ g2 p( s* y: q. B6 {6 Nfor real assets ranging from property to commodities, credit
( x$ ?! g: U+ g4 e* V+ a8 I  _+ Rand equities. As we near the end of this policy, prospects
for dollar stabilization grow; this would be helped through
2 D! [/ \' S. \3 V# n- f1 y* p& o" mU.S. fi scal retrenchment and relief on the part of bond
markets. Given the success of the policy and the heightened
# L% Y. x& [- b1 B  F3 uuncertainties elsewhere, it may be time to move to a more
4 t, E; d: B1 Z2 u9 F, Dneutral risk positioning.