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发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。
8 R% g2 P( y: P( I
% R; L& v5 A0 ~+ |' KMarket Commentary
. I1 ~# B3 {7 j% n# R) uEric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer1 U7 M; l; X! s& _8 }+ B
James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager
$ T3 {# l6 }6 U4 f1 h2 S, ?Signature Global Advisors! B1 `! |6 x( s1 I  D( Y

' t. Z0 o& n: \, E( }8 A
' f. P9 B2 E9 H* O. ~Background remarks
% q: X' _8 F9 R; M2 e1 h4 N! } Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are
9 A) @' |$ c# G/ y5 j  Zas much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.$ I+ u' X( ], @, A9 L4 _
 Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
( q, ?! t1 D, }* L, f; Yadjustments.
4 D$ S, L! b$ s4 X; S This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social
; c+ f6 M+ X3 E7 x# ]% l8 S0 Vsafety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
1 ]- w( h# e/ R  `  H* h/ b Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are
9 J9 u2 b2 k" ?" O, x2 j) Wlessons to be learned from the frontrunners.
, `7 s, l, x, @/ S: ^ We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
. a7 _5 s! ~& d: h2 O; Y" J: j5 B9 Eadjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.5 T4 u. A7 }7 ~! n" z
 Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s
; M' C2 j- \, z% Gquantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.
3 l3 T7 [! c4 H& F Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth./ h$ [9 i* V7 d4 P: ~6 A! e
 Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have
: `# A* D, J4 v8 Xreduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation
0 N/ w+ A/ c5 k& U- j3 d8 q$ q The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
4 L  u3 r0 x2 l2 s' v9 pas funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may  B; |+ p: Q/ k" c  H# [
impose liquidation values., ?/ Z* y" ?; z/ x/ ^) S1 _
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In" F* C5 H, f# [& S. Y, R/ Q
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.6 D- C3 N0 Q) o) N0 m4 b
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension; I4 \" E+ T$ F. O7 N
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.
# h  E2 G" ]( U5 e  M  f
9 G3 C* J# S# M) fA look at credit markets- H/ I4 r8 q) q. k
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in3 C" ?% P( b3 u
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven." |: l5 `# ~: {+ w- m# }+ Q/ n
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
* O8 E' A1 H* M5 i2 G& Mthen, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $18 c; k! I! k, d" c4 i
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
* e3 N  q( o  e" H3 S  ~access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade# C! O5 ^5 t( k/ N
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are9 O' P; f0 ?7 b  H3 j
positive for the year-do-date, including high yield., u+ ?2 y- j5 b$ X& {0 S* p/ d
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
$ K  C! {* I" u& F( Ifinding financing.
3 b7 D* `0 r  f/ m1 K, \7 w( U Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they
$ i& c1 t  i: P8 [& s2 |( ^0 \were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.
3 @, z) [  ~9 u( D, O% e Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
$ [; P8 f% W- d& Q- Gis now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were2 B* i7 _( H7 U) g
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
$ D' j' O9 M8 f  Y3 S8 s& j1 obankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.' p2 l; b( c( ~- v5 u, d& Z) e" I
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain8 ?3 s! l; y" G7 G" l  h% m& ]& p
today.0 f5 o8 g$ y7 w0 K6 Y
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in$ ^5 i* c/ `1 A
emerging markets have no problem with funding.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda
# G% V  Y3 v/ T, [3 W% I. { Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
( X6 W8 G" `! t* P: O7 pthe Greek default.) r/ N; [! y' z( K
 As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:& {, i( W. e! _2 b. @# k$ f; Y: r
1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
5 g4 E/ b$ B- N2 `, P, p2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign
) {$ `7 K6 u& K0 U0 G6 V+ ]debt stabilization, needs government approvals.
- D+ ?/ Z6 L5 @& Y! Z- P5 x3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing# r6 d0 l3 j9 e; }9 I/ Z
banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years
" h8 ^, W, s1 L! _- j5 W1 Q4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.
: Y2 ?1 O% A! l
6 T5 V" W% p# m( FBeyond Greece
$ B& V. m; C: o% U  U, g The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),  N$ j( I, u! g9 m. x* q
but that was before Italy.
  n% M) ?1 O; ^3 P& m# t It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.
0 g( b7 b4 ?) G, g2 b7 [. E4 M It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the. |- S1 T1 V) w+ O: M7 D9 _
Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.
4 _/ D& p2 m1 o4 ^$ t- A' e1 ~+ ~2 M% z! |5 j
Conclusion
7 {/ ?$ p, P7 s6 _ We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
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