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Alberta will sink into recession this year, as provincial fortunes turn amid oil’s collapse, CIBC predicts- R* A2 r1 O, J1 q0 V2 J# o& \
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Republish Reprint' H; P1 m" ?( R0 B$ h
Gordon Isfeld | February 17, 2015 | Last Updated: Feb 17 6:00 PM ET
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7 t: |. l2 |" k7 X* Y8 l1 VLast year Alberta lead Canada's growth, but the plunge in oil prices has turned the tables on the nation's energy giants.
% \7 ]/ R% g% m. s: B4 }, ~) vBloombergLast year Alberta lead Canada's growth, but the plunge in oil prices has turned the tables on the nation's energy giants." C0 S# ^ u: W1 B4 ^" `
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OTTAWA — Consistently low oil prices could dramatically alter the economic landscape of Canada in the coming year and beyond, with Alberta slipping into a “mild” recession as a weak dollar helps lift the manufacturing hubs such as Ontario.
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That pattern is already being reflected in a slowdown in the oil patch-fueled housing market in Calgary and Edmonton, in addition to an anticipated knock-on increase in unemployment rates in the province.
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In a report released Tuesday, titled The Tables Have Turned, economists at CIBC World Markets said recent data show “just how sharply the growth leadership is likely to swing.”
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& f) G0 b! ]5 @3 c' sMost startling, perhaps, is the likelihood Alberta will go from the leading economic power house in 2014 to recessionary levels this year.
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3 M/ ?- i0 ~: D, `* X2 X8 b: P“Alberta looks headed for a mild and temporary recession,” said economists Avery Shenfeld and Nick Exarhos, pointing to a 0.3% decline in 2015, compared with 4.1% growth in 2014.: b3 {2 J5 J4 n$ Z( Z
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As well, they see growth in Saskatchewan — the country’s other major resources-heavy province — suffering in 2015, managing an advance of only 0.8% this year, after 1% in 2014, but likely avoiding an outright downturn.0 f9 W" `1 n6 _0 ~
) g" d) C5 e1 x }However, Newfoundland and Labrador — also reliant on energy revenues — could contract more significantly this year, by 1.3%, and in 2016, by 1%.
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2 f! `/ P9 \; @# S, K% j" QIn contrast, Central Canada “should enjoy a small upside surprise,” thanks mainly to a healthy U.S. economy, CIBC predicts, along with a lift in exports from a weak Canadian dollar.
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Canada’s oil capitals are headed for their first major housing correction since 2008, TD warns
- v# a! D& x) l8 j, {; L4 Q4 u2 X' \Cenovus Energy Inc slashes staff by 15%, freezes pay in ‘challenging times for oil and gas industry’5 ~* {' O2 [5 K) X* X2 X
The best oil traders in the business say this rout is not over) P0 S3 b) x' }4 a0 @+ E$ C
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+ l+ r! s- Z4 N3 _, s+ \# L* I# lThe Ontario economy will expand 2.8% this year, up from 2.1% in 2014, and add 2.8% next year, according to CIBC. Quebec should add 2.4% this year and 2.6% in 2016, after a restrained advance of 1.8% in 2014, the bank said. At the same time, British Columbia will continue its mid-2% growth trend.
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& D& X5 S% l$ c" o6 y3 _“That will translate into commensurate shifts in the employment picture, alleviating pressure in some areas — where, if anything, workers are currently in scarce supply — and lowering the jobless rate in Central Canada, where it has been stuck above the national average.”
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: a" _3 n* W# r+ m. ^For example, Alberta’s jobless rate could rise to an average of 6.8% this year, from 4.7% in 2014, the CIBC said, while Ontario should see its unemployment level fall to 6.6% from 7.2% last year.
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CIBC expects overall growth in Canada to be around 1.9% this year, down from 2.4% in 2014, and rising by 2.5% next year.- h( U% o) R: e3 U s
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Contrast those with the Bank of Canada’s 2.1% outlook for this year and 2.4% in 2016 issued in January, when policymakers surprised markets by cutting their benchmark lending rate to 0.75% from 1%, where it had stood since September 2010.
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4 x3 Z I4 [2 R! q4 I3 lThe central bank’s GDP forecast is based on an average oil price of US$60 a barrel in 2015 and 2016. Crude was trading above US$53 on Tuesday, a gain on recent sessions.
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Meanwhile, the Canadian dollar closed near the US81￠ level.
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The regional shift is also evident in the housing market, where the slowdown in Calgary and Edmonton helped pull down national sales by 3.1% in January from December and by 2% from a year earlier, the Canadian Real Estate Association said Tuesday.
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2 n7 K# b" {' j R; R7 T ?& c" Q5 i“As expected, consumer confidence in the Prairies has declined and moved a number of potential homebuyers to the sidelines as a result,” CREA president Beth Crosbie said.$ V, f3 k* n& U9 @. Z' ?/ N
9 D! l" r+ g' O" WTotal January residential sales in Calgary were down 35.5% from a year earlier, while Edmonton fell 22.7%, Saskatoon lost 24% and Regina was off 6.9%.0 C6 o. [) F& o# a; _) `% P
8 o; `! l6 y; R& _" @) n( [' m“There’s little mystery behind the sudden reversal of fortune for the national figures, as sales in Calgary and Edmonton — and Saskatoon — fell more than 20% from a year ago, in what had been the hottest markets in the country,” said Douglas Porter, chief economist at BMO Capital Markets. |
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发表于 2015-2-1 17:34
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