 鲜花( 26)  鸡蛋( 0)
|
Alberta will sink into recession this year, as provincial fortunes turn amid oil’s collapse, CIBC predicts) x$ |5 {# o% I) v8 L5 _9 b$ m% n
2 f: Z- \3 E: h
Republish Reprint; B; N3 z5 R. p# n
Gordon Isfeld | February 17, 2015 | Last Updated: Feb 17 6:00 PM ET% p, _1 v! N- i( B6 [$ X8 w: w' R
More from Gordon Isfeld
; P) O5 U, e( u( k& h f* \Last year Alberta lead Canada's growth, but the plunge in oil prices has turned the tables on the nation's energy giants.* U7 _- d' ^% q! b) o0 k
BloombergLast year Alberta lead Canada's growth, but the plunge in oil prices has turned the tables on the nation's energy giants.
9 N9 p) Z/ A$ C! m; a& O- D7 ` Twitter Google+ LinkedIn Email Typo? More0 f1 H0 I& v) U) I+ H, M O# `
OTTAWA — Consistently low oil prices could dramatically alter the economic landscape of Canada in the coming year and beyond, with Alberta slipping into a “mild” recession as a weak dollar helps lift the manufacturing hubs such as Ontario.
, }( G; F/ u3 w1 F
3 Q$ r/ G& d A, G: Y, IThat pattern is already being reflected in a slowdown in the oil patch-fueled housing market in Calgary and Edmonton, in addition to an anticipated knock-on increase in unemployment rates in the province.& _& X# a f9 P" p6 N# x
8 D) j9 E; w6 o5 @6 I% {) R4 y' SIn a report released Tuesday, titled The Tables Have Turned, economists at CIBC World Markets said recent data show “just how sharply the growth leadership is likely to swing.”
- Z/ \0 ?# T0 {$ T4 {( [1 Z
5 U' v' I j$ u( Z% x6 g; hMost startling, perhaps, is the likelihood Alberta will go from the leading economic power house in 2014 to recessionary levels this year.( ]+ C! W. K% j' j: B- C/ S" f7 i
- x7 N. ?" }! ?0 s8 w$ m“Alberta looks headed for a mild and temporary recession,” said economists Avery Shenfeld and Nick Exarhos, pointing to a 0.3% decline in 2015, compared with 4.1% growth in 2014.
5 M+ H: ~$ b8 ?
3 E; P! m, a3 WAs well, they see growth in Saskatchewan — the country’s other major resources-heavy province — suffering in 2015, managing an advance of only 0.8% this year, after 1% in 2014, but likely avoiding an outright downturn./ \) V, |6 ]) S4 U
, K. o! r- y, ]9 qHowever, Newfoundland and Labrador — also reliant on energy revenues — could contract more significantly this year, by 1.3%, and in 2016, by 1%.
2 S1 T# W7 m- o) R* O- k4 `; L( U! h. K. J
In contrast, Central Canada “should enjoy a small upside surprise,” thanks mainly to a healthy U.S. economy, CIBC predicts, along with a lift in exports from a weak Canadian dollar.
2 k4 m) W+ ?1 F
& o; | u/ d" O X" f7 w: yRelated1 c8 U8 e, Y# b. v- Y8 M t2 J; _
Canada’s oil capitals are headed for their first major housing correction since 2008, TD warns
% I& x5 h m2 n8 \7 `: P; X; LCenovus Energy Inc slashes staff by 15%, freezes pay in ‘challenging times for oil and gas industry’9 C. T+ |- g/ T0 `( U
The best oil traders in the business say this rout is not over
3 d* \7 M3 K$ oAdvertisement& G/ ^+ c7 c" T0 a
; Q' U: w, s/ c
3 b7 n0 d! f5 J3 X' I! u3 S+ rThe Ontario economy will expand 2.8% this year, up from 2.1% in 2014, and add 2.8% next year, according to CIBC. Quebec should add 2.4% this year and 2.6% in 2016, after a restrained advance of 1.8% in 2014, the bank said. At the same time, British Columbia will continue its mid-2% growth trend.
7 W& |' ^1 E U# J+ X/ J& B8 z) G; j( O7 P- t' p. ?! M
“That will translate into commensurate shifts in the employment picture, alleviating pressure in some areas — where, if anything, workers are currently in scarce supply — and lowering the jobless rate in Central Canada, where it has been stuck above the national average.”
9 p4 _9 v- c! Q) ?2 q0 n; [1 Q# K1 y' r$ f
For example, Alberta’s jobless rate could rise to an average of 6.8% this year, from 4.7% in 2014, the CIBC said, while Ontario should see its unemployment level fall to 6.6% from 7.2% last year.
. [' c8 X" u# M. l, } U
i, I8 m4 R& Z H: D) `5 hCIBC expects overall growth in Canada to be around 1.9% this year, down from 2.4% in 2014, and rising by 2.5% next year.
3 N) g# u6 v& ?: t2 j. a7 H) i% i9 t
B" O3 E* U0 `4 ~! Z* @Contrast those with the Bank of Canada’s 2.1% outlook for this year and 2.4% in 2016 issued in January, when policymakers surprised markets by cutting their benchmark lending rate to 0.75% from 1%, where it had stood since September 2010.
7 c: c2 A" F2 ^4 e7 S
9 t4 G* z! u) CThe central bank’s GDP forecast is based on an average oil price of US$60 a barrel in 2015 and 2016. Crude was trading above US$53 on Tuesday, a gain on recent sessions.
: L- ~/ a. v1 O9 X! e7 ?3 O6 Q( b
Meanwhile, the Canadian dollar closed near the US81￠ level.7 f& h2 |3 v8 N: ^* R" h: a
1 F5 ]) h4 ]: l( JThe regional shift is also evident in the housing market, where the slowdown in Calgary and Edmonton helped pull down national sales by 3.1% in January from December and by 2% from a year earlier, the Canadian Real Estate Association said Tuesday.
' m* _ {2 m, F, \5 T6 w0 r5 T6 M2 B* N7 `* P
“As expected, consumer confidence in the Prairies has declined and moved a number of potential homebuyers to the sidelines as a result,” CREA president Beth Crosbie said.; u% w7 T( L3 K/ _4 g* b8 y) X0 v/ U
# c/ z! j! E g! _6 STotal January residential sales in Calgary were down 35.5% from a year earlier, while Edmonton fell 22.7%, Saskatoon lost 24% and Regina was off 6.9%./ t, J8 F# R7 b. J4 [% e7 F% i
B# p+ e6 x% O m
“There’s little mystery behind the sudden reversal of fortune for the national figures, as sales in Calgary and Edmonton — and Saskatoon — fell more than 20% from a year ago, in what had been the hottest markets in the country,” said Douglas Porter, chief economist at BMO Capital Markets. |
|
楼主: yxia
狗仔卡
发表于 2015-2-1 17:34
显身卡
