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Alberta will sink into recession this year, as provincial fortunes turn amid oil’s collapse, CIBC predicts) |4 w3 p( A; w- }4 \
; k: g5 G- D+ a0 P" }" p% W) |+ {' c) NRepublish Reprint
2 J M: [0 i I& BGordon Isfeld | February 17, 2015 | Last Updated: Feb 17 6:00 PM ET
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- P1 Q+ I0 j/ V/ q5 A2 z% JLast year Alberta lead Canada's growth, but the plunge in oil prices has turned the tables on the nation's energy giants.
1 y! U7 D2 u3 a; N: C1 wBloombergLast year Alberta lead Canada's growth, but the plunge in oil prices has turned the tables on the nation's energy giants.. V- s5 ~9 d, _& E- \7 r
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OTTAWA — Consistently low oil prices could dramatically alter the economic landscape of Canada in the coming year and beyond, with Alberta slipping into a “mild” recession as a weak dollar helps lift the manufacturing hubs such as Ontario.
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That pattern is already being reflected in a slowdown in the oil patch-fueled housing market in Calgary and Edmonton, in addition to an anticipated knock-on increase in unemployment rates in the province./ i7 \) l- h$ g7 b- |
1 H$ S. H, k2 j: A! MIn a report released Tuesday, titled The Tables Have Turned, economists at CIBC World Markets said recent data show “just how sharply the growth leadership is likely to swing.”3 D4 ]+ u; q; c# C# q; g
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Most startling, perhaps, is the likelihood Alberta will go from the leading economic power house in 2014 to recessionary levels this year.
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, R- O$ o4 G% N6 }9 E$ R7 j“Alberta looks headed for a mild and temporary recession,” said economists Avery Shenfeld and Nick Exarhos, pointing to a 0.3% decline in 2015, compared with 4.1% growth in 2014.
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1 n& @4 m' k- X1 q5 yAs well, they see growth in Saskatchewan — the country’s other major resources-heavy province — suffering in 2015, managing an advance of only 0.8% this year, after 1% in 2014, but likely avoiding an outright downturn.# D) C3 V/ a4 D6 Z; A. q4 A# M# b
/ f, [7 G, q+ c" j/ t5 kHowever, Newfoundland and Labrador — also reliant on energy revenues — could contract more significantly this year, by 1.3%, and in 2016, by 1%.
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7 A; m" X2 M. e1 ]! J4 _+ qIn contrast, Central Canada “should enjoy a small upside surprise,” thanks mainly to a healthy U.S. economy, CIBC predicts, along with a lift in exports from a weak Canadian dollar.
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Related: Z5 P9 W. Y) W1 a: I3 w9 P
Canada’s oil capitals are headed for their first major housing correction since 2008, TD warns3 h3 d9 i1 Q9 O+ @" J9 q
Cenovus Energy Inc slashes staff by 15%, freezes pay in ‘challenging times for oil and gas industry’
$ Q7 {1 B; j/ W; WThe best oil traders in the business say this rout is not over- H$ ]* J2 J' y. @# t
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6 a9 Z. e' S# _3 p* QThe Ontario economy will expand 2.8% this year, up from 2.1% in 2014, and add 2.8% next year, according to CIBC. Quebec should add 2.4% this year and 2.6% in 2016, after a restrained advance of 1.8% in 2014, the bank said. At the same time, British Columbia will continue its mid-2% growth trend.
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“That will translate into commensurate shifts in the employment picture, alleviating pressure in some areas — where, if anything, workers are currently in scarce supply — and lowering the jobless rate in Central Canada, where it has been stuck above the national average.”! w2 n5 m* S0 g# F! a0 P" H/ R
: _; {/ C& a+ Z5 T3 w0 ~2 ZFor example, Alberta’s jobless rate could rise to an average of 6.8% this year, from 4.7% in 2014, the CIBC said, while Ontario should see its unemployment level fall to 6.6% from 7.2% last year.
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CIBC expects overall growth in Canada to be around 1.9% this year, down from 2.4% in 2014, and rising by 2.5% next year.. E+ z+ v4 \0 I* f$ J9 Y7 q$ V
% X: c& @2 U- B l. u$ qContrast those with the Bank of Canada’s 2.1% outlook for this year and 2.4% in 2016 issued in January, when policymakers surprised markets by cutting their benchmark lending rate to 0.75% from 1%, where it had stood since September 2010.
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The central bank’s GDP forecast is based on an average oil price of US$60 a barrel in 2015 and 2016. Crude was trading above US$53 on Tuesday, a gain on recent sessions.
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Meanwhile, the Canadian dollar closed near the US81￠ level.3 h- I# H5 a5 {. }* R% K, i
! _' A( Q' t6 d# @9 }( iThe regional shift is also evident in the housing market, where the slowdown in Calgary and Edmonton helped pull down national sales by 3.1% in January from December and by 2% from a year earlier, the Canadian Real Estate Association said Tuesday.; r8 }8 w- V* Z/ D# R P" Z0 |
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“As expected, consumer confidence in the Prairies has declined and moved a number of potential homebuyers to the sidelines as a result,” CREA president Beth Crosbie said.7 L( M$ \$ T9 u2 I4 s& r
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Total January residential sales in Calgary were down 35.5% from a year earlier, while Edmonton fell 22.7%, Saskatoon lost 24% and Regina was off 6.9%.* \4 ? @. b1 O% b* I4 q. Q! [
0 p( P/ [! y' r% n& k/ }+ i“There’s little mystery behind the sudden reversal of fortune for the national figures, as sales in Calgary and Edmonton — and Saskatoon — fell more than 20% from a year ago, in what had been the hottest markets in the country,” said Douglas Porter, chief economist at BMO Capital Markets. |
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发表于 2015-2-1 17:34
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