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Alberta will sink into recession this year, as provincial fortunes turn amid oil’s collapse, CIBC predicts0 H$ O- H' z$ |1 ?$ u# E
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( j9 x4 g" {, U" g0 OGordon Isfeld | February 17, 2015 | Last Updated: Feb 17 6:00 PM ET; l+ E0 U, a4 o- S- S
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# j: {) |) R2 S7 K' |: HLast year Alberta lead Canada's growth, but the plunge in oil prices has turned the tables on the nation's energy giants.
! ? J$ S v% {5 n% H! |+ E3 H- |BloombergLast year Alberta lead Canada's growth, but the plunge in oil prices has turned the tables on the nation's energy giants.' l @# s3 ?9 ?& C
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5 h, `5 O: ~. J+ `OTTAWA — Consistently low oil prices could dramatically alter the economic landscape of Canada in the coming year and beyond, with Alberta slipping into a “mild” recession as a weak dollar helps lift the manufacturing hubs such as Ontario.
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6 l1 r( q' z) Q: iThat pattern is already being reflected in a slowdown in the oil patch-fueled housing market in Calgary and Edmonton, in addition to an anticipated knock-on increase in unemployment rates in the province.& B/ d* Q! q. K5 |
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In a report released Tuesday, titled The Tables Have Turned, economists at CIBC World Markets said recent data show “just how sharply the growth leadership is likely to swing.”$ T# c5 z h$ I7 ?% ?0 e
! @; i( R6 j( ^Most startling, perhaps, is the likelihood Alberta will go from the leading economic power house in 2014 to recessionary levels this year.5 s, Z1 N& q- u, U/ W4 h
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“Alberta looks headed for a mild and temporary recession,” said economists Avery Shenfeld and Nick Exarhos, pointing to a 0.3% decline in 2015, compared with 4.1% growth in 2014.8 [( ?3 {6 c9 j6 f0 ]
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As well, they see growth in Saskatchewan — the country’s other major resources-heavy province — suffering in 2015, managing an advance of only 0.8% this year, after 1% in 2014, but likely avoiding an outright downturn.* K+ U+ n9 U7 ?7 S/ z& K
8 g- S+ Y0 O& x6 K5 \& yHowever, Newfoundland and Labrador — also reliant on energy revenues — could contract more significantly this year, by 1.3%, and in 2016, by 1%.
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In contrast, Central Canada “should enjoy a small upside surprise,” thanks mainly to a healthy U.S. economy, CIBC predicts, along with a lift in exports from a weak Canadian dollar.
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1 [8 N1 K4 J# a, e7 bRelated
$ }/ N+ V+ S7 _* q9 C; m. HCanada’s oil capitals are headed for their first major housing correction since 2008, TD warns K& T0 _: @: Y8 u+ r# D( M% f
Cenovus Energy Inc slashes staff by 15%, freezes pay in ‘challenging times for oil and gas industry’
$ R v. U- t( G/ i, _The best oil traders in the business say this rout is not over' J+ R. d* k: O! g
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5 ~, l2 B! x7 Y2 @* `# W5 @( oThe Ontario economy will expand 2.8% this year, up from 2.1% in 2014, and add 2.8% next year, according to CIBC. Quebec should add 2.4% this year and 2.6% in 2016, after a restrained advance of 1.8% in 2014, the bank said. At the same time, British Columbia will continue its mid-2% growth trend.1 @# ~3 y$ k; E: ~
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“That will translate into commensurate shifts in the employment picture, alleviating pressure in some areas — where, if anything, workers are currently in scarce supply — and lowering the jobless rate in Central Canada, where it has been stuck above the national average.”
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For example, Alberta’s jobless rate could rise to an average of 6.8% this year, from 4.7% in 2014, the CIBC said, while Ontario should see its unemployment level fall to 6.6% from 7.2% last year.
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CIBC expects overall growth in Canada to be around 1.9% this year, down from 2.4% in 2014, and rising by 2.5% next year.* N" \" [& t& x2 ?4 b9 b y" N4 y
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Contrast those with the Bank of Canada’s 2.1% outlook for this year and 2.4% in 2016 issued in January, when policymakers surprised markets by cutting their benchmark lending rate to 0.75% from 1%, where it had stood since September 2010.
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The central bank’s GDP forecast is based on an average oil price of US$60 a barrel in 2015 and 2016. Crude was trading above US$53 on Tuesday, a gain on recent sessions.
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Meanwhile, the Canadian dollar closed near the US81￠ level.
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! H! b8 E( g/ C5 l* nThe regional shift is also evident in the housing market, where the slowdown in Calgary and Edmonton helped pull down national sales by 3.1% in January from December and by 2% from a year earlier, the Canadian Real Estate Association said Tuesday.
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“As expected, consumer confidence in the Prairies has declined and moved a number of potential homebuyers to the sidelines as a result,” CREA president Beth Crosbie said.
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' z9 u) c Z rTotal January residential sales in Calgary were down 35.5% from a year earlier, while Edmonton fell 22.7%, Saskatoon lost 24% and Regina was off 6.9%.
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- A; v2 K0 g t( A( r) c“There’s little mystery behind the sudden reversal of fortune for the national figures, as sales in Calgary and Edmonton — and Saskatoon — fell more than 20% from a year ago, in what had been the hottest markets in the country,” said Douglas Porter, chief economist at BMO Capital Markets. |
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