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Alberta will sink into recession this year, as provincial fortunes turn amid oil’s collapse, CIBC predicts* ]2 N% D! [$ `5 k N& S1 ?
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Gordon Isfeld | February 17, 2015 | Last Updated: Feb 17 6:00 PM ET
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3 b+ R1 a" {( E8 X h& [/ ?; XLast year Alberta lead Canada's growth, but the plunge in oil prices has turned the tables on the nation's energy giants., p0 u' b+ ^2 s; Y* g4 M5 Y* N
BloombergLast year Alberta lead Canada's growth, but the plunge in oil prices has turned the tables on the nation's energy giants.- [8 m" w1 l! j9 ^$ I. q+ t
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OTTAWA — Consistently low oil prices could dramatically alter the economic landscape of Canada in the coming year and beyond, with Alberta slipping into a “mild” recession as a weak dollar helps lift the manufacturing hubs such as Ontario.
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That pattern is already being reflected in a slowdown in the oil patch-fueled housing market in Calgary and Edmonton, in addition to an anticipated knock-on increase in unemployment rates in the province./ G% Y1 i: \) ?, R' [
8 v/ E5 B( u# p6 xIn a report released Tuesday, titled The Tables Have Turned, economists at CIBC World Markets said recent data show “just how sharply the growth leadership is likely to swing.”
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; b3 |, O- c" M1 d3 |. RMost startling, perhaps, is the likelihood Alberta will go from the leading economic power house in 2014 to recessionary levels this year.- r$ W' ~" Y5 c( h8 a' x9 u
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“Alberta looks headed for a mild and temporary recession,” said economists Avery Shenfeld and Nick Exarhos, pointing to a 0.3% decline in 2015, compared with 4.1% growth in 2014. B( `; x8 @' n/ X, }5 K
0 r3 A" R8 A5 R. X% F& TAs well, they see growth in Saskatchewan — the country’s other major resources-heavy province — suffering in 2015, managing an advance of only 0.8% this year, after 1% in 2014, but likely avoiding an outright downturn.
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However, Newfoundland and Labrador — also reliant on energy revenues — could contract more significantly this year, by 1.3%, and in 2016, by 1%.
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In contrast, Central Canada “should enjoy a small upside surprise,” thanks mainly to a healthy U.S. economy, CIBC predicts, along with a lift in exports from a weak Canadian dollar.
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& j* r3 t7 D( k8 A1 rThe best oil traders in the business say this rout is not over, T% \% E: M+ u. X& C! e1 t V
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3 P' [% c$ x0 b- S8 {The Ontario economy will expand 2.8% this year, up from 2.1% in 2014, and add 2.8% next year, according to CIBC. Quebec should add 2.4% this year and 2.6% in 2016, after a restrained advance of 1.8% in 2014, the bank said. At the same time, British Columbia will continue its mid-2% growth trend.6 `6 W9 x) I9 G4 n
H" s S o7 D' _“That will translate into commensurate shifts in the employment picture, alleviating pressure in some areas — where, if anything, workers are currently in scarce supply — and lowering the jobless rate in Central Canada, where it has been stuck above the national average.”1 ^: Q7 L# H" L" x7 c* K7 O
) ]! k/ \0 [0 _7 S" \4 t+ Q/ CFor example, Alberta’s jobless rate could rise to an average of 6.8% this year, from 4.7% in 2014, the CIBC said, while Ontario should see its unemployment level fall to 6.6% from 7.2% last year./ k! }4 ~: @% l+ W+ I X
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CIBC expects overall growth in Canada to be around 1.9% this year, down from 2.4% in 2014, and rising by 2.5% next year.1 i% l1 d+ \/ R9 ?# j
* ]. f2 r' C6 V" BContrast those with the Bank of Canada’s 2.1% outlook for this year and 2.4% in 2016 issued in January, when policymakers surprised markets by cutting their benchmark lending rate to 0.75% from 1%, where it had stood since September 2010. U- a+ W: b6 {
: h6 w( G& X/ v' f p$ AThe central bank’s GDP forecast is based on an average oil price of US$60 a barrel in 2015 and 2016. Crude was trading above US$53 on Tuesday, a gain on recent sessions., O# F: C# S" \$ y
4 Q; h1 \9 x ?& F0 qMeanwhile, the Canadian dollar closed near the US81￠ level.
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The regional shift is also evident in the housing market, where the slowdown in Calgary and Edmonton helped pull down national sales by 3.1% in January from December and by 2% from a year earlier, the Canadian Real Estate Association said Tuesday.
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“As expected, consumer confidence in the Prairies has declined and moved a number of potential homebuyers to the sidelines as a result,” CREA president Beth Crosbie said.
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W/ j2 i# v4 I5 BTotal January residential sales in Calgary were down 35.5% from a year earlier, while Edmonton fell 22.7%, Saskatoon lost 24% and Regina was off 6.9%.6 ^/ \5 L/ }1 z8 V- t) x |
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“There’s little mystery behind the sudden reversal of fortune for the national figures, as sales in Calgary and Edmonton — and Saskatoon — fell more than 20% from a year ago, in what had been the hottest markets in the country,” said Douglas Porter, chief economist at BMO Capital Markets. |
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发表于 2015-2-1 17:34
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