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突然看到九月的一文章6 q( b# F3 V# B; \7 C
For Canadian Oil Sands It’s Adapt Or Die0 M9 p6 L0 p: D( x6 O
# J3 J9 |% w7 A3 q- P- y+ sBy Alexis Arthur
6 N5 i% b& O$ y! g. u: i8 ePosted on Tue, 15 September 2015 21:34 | 1+ ~: m& A' k* M* N9 F2 W
That low oil prices are squeezing out oil sands producers is not breaking news. But in spite of a grim oil price outlook, production out of Calgary has continued to grow, defying both expectations and logic. The implications are serious, not just for the future of Canada’s energy industry and economy, but also North American energy relations.9 }/ ?* R2 q* |' D- i2 F+ e- ]9 R7 _
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In June 2015, the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers (CAPP) revised down its 2030 production forecast to 5.3 million barrels per day (mbd). A year earlier the group predicted Canada would be able to produce 6.4 mbd by 2030. This is compared to the 3.7 mbd produced in 2014. Most experts agree that capital intensive oil sands projects are marginal – if not loss-making – in the $45 – $60 range. Yet production continues apace.
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Of course, the nature of capital intensive operations such as the oil sands is that they are also prohibitively expensive to shut down. Producers are left in limbo, praying that prices will rise." ]% e" \3 |4 A. X
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The implications for Canada should not be understated. Of the nation’s estimated 339 billion barrels of potential oil resources, oil sands account for around 90 percent. The Canadian dollar is at a decade low, which softens the blow for exporters in the short term but the long-term economic consequences are less rosy. |
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