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Thu January 11, 2007 www.edmontonsun.com
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* n+ I, M( s, D# K- n In Tomorrow's PaperGet the latest Oilers news every day in Sports. Or check our Oilers homepage here.
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+ M, U$ f6 D6 G8 `Thu, January 11, 2007; \8 K. a3 Z; ]8 r {4 }
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Price is still rightEdmonton Real Estate Board president expects a 15% climb in 2007$ g6 S) G9 c! l' _
By NEIL WAUGH, EDMONTON SUN
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They're changing the guard down at the Edmonton real estate palace. + i# P$ F, {- a$ s# }! s+ U/ x
4 C3 m& e9 l: n; x. F1 q3 XMadeline Sarafinchan is out. Carolyn Pratt is taking over the Edmonton Real Estate Board president's gavel - the kind of blunt instrument that some realtors, I suspect, would like to use on ComFree Edmonton upstart Travis Holowach. More on that later. 5 S; P6 r2 M, J' v O7 M
' |5 Y4 u# s& c# P% L+ m0 w8 s JBut first, the EREB president's bold predictions and fearless forecasts. ) \$ A3 y. \- W k+ g0 D$ Y: Y4 y
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Don't expect a repeat of last year's housing boom where condo and single family dwelling prices spiked an incredible 52%. Pratt is now calling for a more modest increase of 15%. 1 h2 Z' I# m* }" D7 f' U! h8 t
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'CONTINUED DEMAND' # M' Q0 d' g' V4 {, z6 s
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" D; N5 \. B, |0 ?$ E& _. X"We feel the increase will come because there will be continued demand, consumer confidence, a very robust economy and low interest rates," Pratt whooped at the EREB's New Year's kick-off conference at the Westin. "All the factors are there for another terrific year." 2 a# d2 i1 s( o2 @* ~+ f
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She predicted that the total number of residential sales isn't expected to increase in 2007 - despite thousands of pot-of-gold seekers still flocking to the capital region from across the country as Ontario continues to sputter.
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"There just won't be enough houses to sell," she sighed.
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) V: n+ Q9 p MCanada Mortgage and Housing Corporation senior analyst Richard Goatcher was also talking a good-news-bad-news scenario at the board meeting. , @* c; J; \; i! z' x5 V7 i4 ~
! @" o8 z: P: f. M. \"The big issue is, are we going to see continued in-migration into the city with the volumes we had last year?" Goatcher said. His expectation is "somewhat less." m3 c1 I6 j* o+ R( L
_9 a C0 j' C, wStill, total new-house starts will be "fairly similar" to last year's pace. 2006 turned out to be a record year. So was 2005. But Goatcher is predicting a 5% decrease in house starts.
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) t% ~5 K/ k( P; A+ a& a"A lot of it is due to capacity issues," he said. Developers are running out of serviced lots in some areas. Some homebuilders "got a little overstretched" during last year's house-building frenzy. * W& ~3 d0 F2 ]
, F* ?: g2 E% z# u2 o; s"There are too many shortages in the system," he shrugged. " V. m) {4 s( a( `! _
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"But it's still going to be very, very strong," he quickly added, with the average new-home selling price ramping up by 20%. 9 r8 V1 Y4 S+ i( B3 n: r; b: v) j
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NO PRICE BOOM REPEAT
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+ i1 M+ k9 a' x/ P+ N9 }6 cHe also doesn't see a repeat of the 2006 price boom in the resale market, which he described as "unsustainable." " \1 D5 {: D2 c
+ F1 G0 R( j" y/ o4 Z2 KExpect a more gentle 10% increase - mainly because many potential buyers are now being priced out of the market - even with zero down payment and 40-year mortgages. 7 A0 K9 A9 t- Q; p/ K f/ K/ q1 c! d
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Over at ComFree Edmonton, president Travis Holowach was also celebrating what he described as a "steaming red hot" real estate market, and another "record-setting" year for his commission-free real estate service.
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3 B( d. k J) a/ H4 C, sHis 2006 wind-up report shows 4,375 total sales and 5,721 new listings, up 74% from 2005 - clearly sucking up a lot of the inventory that would otherwise have gone to an EREB realtor. - C' f; K' t+ K9 p3 e
" _# c7 t1 J- M4 l# ^0 P& F"Our growing presence in the marketplace is having a strong impact on the competition," Holowach winked. + D9 H9 x- B6 r/ h0 ~( w& W
E8 N+ ]& x6 n+ V2 r/ {3 l) o) B/ ESo strong that the Alberta Real Estate Association launched a complaint with Alberta Government Services claiming ComFree was bending the truth about its market share. 6 c) B: W7 r9 t4 x6 `
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Yesterday ComFree was still claiming 30% share of the residential market. And "commissions saved" of $82 million from his sell-it-yourself operation. Which, of course, is what the battle is really all about.
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"We do 95% of the sales in the real estate market," Pratt countered.
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8 Z, ]; V# ^. M7 ]. w- _Let the good times roll. v ?9 N' A; l6 s/ ^2 d
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Previous story: Bottom Line; {, k0 G$ C) X; U0 D& N
Next story: Building permits hit record
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