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Thu January 11, 2007 www.edmontonsun.com3 b9 `% w5 `0 ~2 M
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3 {. u! N( N6 ~$ w In Tomorrow's PaperGet the latest Oilers news every day in Sports. Or check our Oilers homepage here.
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4 M7 H0 [! V- J9 g4 m+ vThu, January 11, 2007
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1 O; g& r1 z! F: g, \8 JPrice is still rightEdmonton Real Estate Board president expects a 15% climb in 2007; x j) a/ c) J
By NEIL WAUGH, EDMONTON SUN
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They're changing the guard down at the Edmonton real estate palace. 1 v. E: O8 m# v5 [
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Madeline Sarafinchan is out. Carolyn Pratt is taking over the Edmonton Real Estate Board president's gavel - the kind of blunt instrument that some realtors, I suspect, would like to use on ComFree Edmonton upstart Travis Holowach. More on that later.
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But first, the EREB president's bold predictions and fearless forecasts.
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) k" B3 m( L$ r8 f& z2 E; P0 o7 q# WDon't expect a repeat of last year's housing boom where condo and single family dwelling prices spiked an incredible 52%. Pratt is now calling for a more modest increase of 15%.
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* M, Q' L& Y* _8 S3 t& e"We feel the increase will come because there will be continued demand, consumer confidence, a very robust economy and low interest rates," Pratt whooped at the EREB's New Year's kick-off conference at the Westin. "All the factors are there for another terrific year." " ^ c4 v+ t1 n( z
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She predicted that the total number of residential sales isn't expected to increase in 2007 - despite thousands of pot-of-gold seekers still flocking to the capital region from across the country as Ontario continues to sputter. ) e+ g/ Q) D3 R+ p. r5 b9 O+ W. n
6 m( v r1 [$ e+ E& [: P9 h"There just won't be enough houses to sell," she sighed.
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Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation senior analyst Richard Goatcher was also talking a good-news-bad-news scenario at the board meeting.
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C2 M0 H' R) ]2 {4 A"The big issue is, are we going to see continued in-migration into the city with the volumes we had last year?" Goatcher said. His expectation is "somewhat less."
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Still, total new-house starts will be "fairly similar" to last year's pace. 2006 turned out to be a record year. So was 2005. But Goatcher is predicting a 5% decrease in house starts. $ c( X! Q3 S7 C/ H
9 K1 q6 ~/ S7 d; |7 Y5 ]' H"A lot of it is due to capacity issues," he said. Developers are running out of serviced lots in some areas. Some homebuilders "got a little overstretched" during last year's house-building frenzy. 0 A# E3 B L/ ?7 v
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"There are too many shortages in the system," he shrugged. % t' \* z3 Z6 i2 M9 u
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"But it's still going to be very, very strong," he quickly added, with the average new-home selling price ramping up by 20%. ( C1 p# B5 c& Y4 C( r6 C, D
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He also doesn't see a repeat of the 2006 price boom in the resale market, which he described as "unsustainable."
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Expect a more gentle 10% increase - mainly because many potential buyers are now being priced out of the market - even with zero down payment and 40-year mortgages. & {. N; F* q. J: F$ E
% \6 D* u+ @; x2 T% d/ uOver at ComFree Edmonton, president Travis Holowach was also celebrating what he described as a "steaming red hot" real estate market, and another "record-setting" year for his commission-free real estate service.
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$ q, q$ u' T/ lHis 2006 wind-up report shows 4,375 total sales and 5,721 new listings, up 74% from 2005 - clearly sucking up a lot of the inventory that would otherwise have gone to an EREB realtor.
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"Our growing presence in the marketplace is having a strong impact on the competition," Holowach winked. # k6 {, X: g- z- m
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So strong that the Alberta Real Estate Association launched a complaint with Alberta Government Services claiming ComFree was bending the truth about its market share.
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0 k9 i0 o% `* S# P" m7 OYesterday ComFree was still claiming 30% share of the residential market. And "commissions saved" of $82 million from his sell-it-yourself operation. Which, of course, is what the battle is really all about. 7 }- K0 a9 n, o* B8 `3 `1 ~
3 q+ g, X2 p) I"We do 95% of the sales in the real estate market," Pratt countered. ' o0 \2 G, M* e# k. @2 C3 s. z
% s; J: r. J L0 v; D0 L; |Let the good times roll.
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