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Thu January 11, 2007 www.edmontonsun.com8 U& N9 G4 c! N+ B. y! O- L0 d
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! h0 j- E8 _- W; C9 L% FThu, January 11, 2007
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5 J: A; f' H$ Y+ U# s! w% LPrice is still rightEdmonton Real Estate Board president expects a 15% climb in 2007# ~7 U S7 _& s
By NEIL WAUGH, EDMONTON SUN( p! j. j. g( q7 u
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They're changing the guard down at the Edmonton real estate palace.
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& A& G( u+ u( q4 a4 s: U; dMadeline Sarafinchan is out. Carolyn Pratt is taking over the Edmonton Real Estate Board president's gavel - the kind of blunt instrument that some realtors, I suspect, would like to use on ComFree Edmonton upstart Travis Holowach. More on that later.
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; _! m2 R. L5 c4 [% H1 QBut first, the EREB president's bold predictions and fearless forecasts.
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0 l8 a# p$ D b9 E& t' o/ P, bDon't expect a repeat of last year's housing boom where condo and single family dwelling prices spiked an incredible 52%. Pratt is now calling for a more modest increase of 15%. $ f* H( @8 x: W, R; Z% q; K
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& q; l5 {6 B `7 B6 ~( C"We feel the increase will come because there will be continued demand, consumer confidence, a very robust economy and low interest rates," Pratt whooped at the EREB's New Year's kick-off conference at the Westin. "All the factors are there for another terrific year."
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% }: H* P- o) p0 Y% M: t$ FShe predicted that the total number of residential sales isn't expected to increase in 2007 - despite thousands of pot-of-gold seekers still flocking to the capital region from across the country as Ontario continues to sputter.
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& ~" A4 U( O3 y- H4 g9 O5 s"There just won't be enough houses to sell," she sighed.
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( H# K- X- T/ c# s3 iCanada Mortgage and Housing Corporation senior analyst Richard Goatcher was also talking a good-news-bad-news scenario at the board meeting. 8 M, c3 K) v+ p/ j1 X4 f
0 X0 g C0 T" O! ]+ z"The big issue is, are we going to see continued in-migration into the city with the volumes we had last year?" Goatcher said. His expectation is "somewhat less." 8 D; O4 c. Z- ~# i( Q
8 i: P5 g( Q$ t9 H8 OStill, total new-house starts will be "fairly similar" to last year's pace. 2006 turned out to be a record year. So was 2005. But Goatcher is predicting a 5% decrease in house starts. 4 U' v& ?: N+ i6 W2 c
% L2 _; V% } J0 u' B"A lot of it is due to capacity issues," he said. Developers are running out of serviced lots in some areas. Some homebuilders "got a little overstretched" during last year's house-building frenzy. 8 i4 \: G6 e: ^. l- G; v7 A3 t
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"There are too many shortages in the system," he shrugged.
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"But it's still going to be very, very strong," he quickly added, with the average new-home selling price ramping up by 20%. . d# G& t+ p3 U" C& N% x+ N
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; E3 Z0 i! A8 H! \7 D# sHe also doesn't see a repeat of the 2006 price boom in the resale market, which he described as "unsustainable." * G: X' E2 X+ D. i9 _
$ p" l. Y4 |! P' m' |4 ]Expect a more gentle 10% increase - mainly because many potential buyers are now being priced out of the market - even with zero down payment and 40-year mortgages.
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! ~: m& s; }6 L/ o+ Y& ?Over at ComFree Edmonton, president Travis Holowach was also celebrating what he described as a "steaming red hot" real estate market, and another "record-setting" year for his commission-free real estate service. 5 D1 t2 U6 y& ?# h8 S. ?2 g6 Z
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His 2006 wind-up report shows 4,375 total sales and 5,721 new listings, up 74% from 2005 - clearly sucking up a lot of the inventory that would otherwise have gone to an EREB realtor. - }/ d0 Z# y9 r. Z$ D, c/ [: i) y6 f% h
. j* h7 i3 K3 \, ?& w- u2 G"Our growing presence in the marketplace is having a strong impact on the competition," Holowach winked. # T% Y' K4 t: x; F
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So strong that the Alberta Real Estate Association launched a complaint with Alberta Government Services claiming ComFree was bending the truth about its market share. + E9 K5 z% k e1 h; e
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Yesterday ComFree was still claiming 30% share of the residential market. And "commissions saved" of $82 million from his sell-it-yourself operation. Which, of course, is what the battle is really all about. 7 C( C1 U I, u
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"We do 95% of the sales in the real estate market," Pratt countered.
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* c$ n A) ]. i. D* i$ |8 t% }# }: pLet the good times roll. L- V% E6 L0 u) E+ h
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Previous story: Bottom Line
: p1 i$ X2 V7 L- ]# aNext story: Building permits hit record
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