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Thu, January 11, 2007+ ?0 z2 @3 b% @
, D. w' G8 l( _3 D x- B/ V$ uPrice is still rightEdmonton Real Estate Board president expects a 15% climb in 2007$ ^5 j# A+ v9 d! f+ Q7 @8 s. w9 ~
By NEIL WAUGH, EDMONTON SUN: {! x. u- S" M2 ]7 H' [
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8 A2 n; I- t: t% G6 ^They're changing the guard down at the Edmonton real estate palace. , J' Y+ L4 N5 k, W) q
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Madeline Sarafinchan is out. Carolyn Pratt is taking over the Edmonton Real Estate Board president's gavel - the kind of blunt instrument that some realtors, I suspect, would like to use on ComFree Edmonton upstart Travis Holowach. More on that later. 9 i* V' a! E( D T6 W) C( e
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But first, the EREB president's bold predictions and fearless forecasts.
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Don't expect a repeat of last year's housing boom where condo and single family dwelling prices spiked an incredible 52%. Pratt is now calling for a more modest increase of 15%.
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, M9 I6 M9 u: u"We feel the increase will come because there will be continued demand, consumer confidence, a very robust economy and low interest rates," Pratt whooped at the EREB's New Year's kick-off conference at the Westin. "All the factors are there for another terrific year."
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She predicted that the total number of residential sales isn't expected to increase in 2007 - despite thousands of pot-of-gold seekers still flocking to the capital region from across the country as Ontario continues to sputter.
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"There just won't be enough houses to sell," she sighed. 3 a4 T6 p* \# C% y/ Q
G2 y: ~9 b4 w7 r0 v5 \2 t# zCanada Mortgage and Housing Corporation senior analyst Richard Goatcher was also talking a good-news-bad-news scenario at the board meeting. ; t D4 k2 j$ M9 X
! y% k: F9 p' D) h' J9 n"The big issue is, are we going to see continued in-migration into the city with the volumes we had last year?" Goatcher said. His expectation is "somewhat less."
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Still, total new-house starts will be "fairly similar" to last year's pace. 2006 turned out to be a record year. So was 2005. But Goatcher is predicting a 5% decrease in house starts.
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"A lot of it is due to capacity issues," he said. Developers are running out of serviced lots in some areas. Some homebuilders "got a little overstretched" during last year's house-building frenzy. # ^% [7 I; g& @! S) p
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"There are too many shortages in the system," he shrugged.
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$ P2 _9 i! l! ^1 ?/ _6 q"But it's still going to be very, very strong," he quickly added, with the average new-home selling price ramping up by 20%. ?( B9 a1 ^( t/ W
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' n- S2 _5 X. M6 M2 ?: I- pHe also doesn't see a repeat of the 2006 price boom in the resale market, which he described as "unsustainable." ) [) W0 l0 w3 m% K0 r
2 ]& N( f3 c CExpect a more gentle 10% increase - mainly because many potential buyers are now being priced out of the market - even with zero down payment and 40-year mortgages.
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Over at ComFree Edmonton, president Travis Holowach was also celebrating what he described as a "steaming red hot" real estate market, and another "record-setting" year for his commission-free real estate service. # v7 k) Q& G# b; W2 C* i
' t8 ~3 H1 u0 Y$ N1 VHis 2006 wind-up report shows 4,375 total sales and 5,721 new listings, up 74% from 2005 - clearly sucking up a lot of the inventory that would otherwise have gone to an EREB realtor. 2 c* z" t# b8 Q) ?' W- D) `4 h6 H5 `5 o
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"Our growing presence in the marketplace is having a strong impact on the competition," Holowach winked.
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. L$ \; |3 n; I3 c9 _So strong that the Alberta Real Estate Association launched a complaint with Alberta Government Services claiming ComFree was bending the truth about its market share. " h9 V7 l( {- W1 a* s9 Q3 c
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Yesterday ComFree was still claiming 30% share of the residential market. And "commissions saved" of $82 million from his sell-it-yourself operation. Which, of course, is what the battle is really all about. * a* Y* b9 q3 C9 P
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"We do 95% of the sales in the real estate market," Pratt countered. , h2 x( |3 `/ M2 y0 c
7 Z! l! v$ I8 m( F, r) N) LLet the good times roll.
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Previous story: Bottom Line
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+ F& r. B( I [" u3 p3 d( y This site is updated by 4:00 a.m. MST each day and includes stories and columns from the day's print edition of The Edmonton Sun.
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发表于 2007-1-11 19:22
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