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$ V6 }0 o9 n% a Thu January 11, 2007 www.edmontonsun.com+ X2 h0 h Z% Y# }4 B
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; v5 o0 w6 f- }5 l7 C. MThu, January 11, 2007
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" u8 B1 U* h8 z3 y4 X! ~Price is still rightEdmonton Real Estate Board president expects a 15% climb in 2007( E( o# r2 G7 G, n; F3 K
By NEIL WAUGH, EDMONTON SUN/ L; g+ b& m- x7 i& N4 v
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4 E, s$ ?0 h2 R0 ^% u$ k- r7 tThey're changing the guard down at the Edmonton real estate palace.
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Madeline Sarafinchan is out. Carolyn Pratt is taking over the Edmonton Real Estate Board president's gavel - the kind of blunt instrument that some realtors, I suspect, would like to use on ComFree Edmonton upstart Travis Holowach. More on that later. 6 w, N g0 j) I1 W5 `
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But first, the EREB president's bold predictions and fearless forecasts.
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Don't expect a repeat of last year's housing boom where condo and single family dwelling prices spiked an incredible 52%. Pratt is now calling for a more modest increase of 15%. " S# p) D0 T6 U+ c( ?
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5 P2 Q1 F! L1 j% g"We feel the increase will come because there will be continued demand, consumer confidence, a very robust economy and low interest rates," Pratt whooped at the EREB's New Year's kick-off conference at the Westin. "All the factors are there for another terrific year." 0 W1 O3 U1 p8 `) U0 S0 { Z, Z
( t+ C n( s9 q IShe predicted that the total number of residential sales isn't expected to increase in 2007 - despite thousands of pot-of-gold seekers still flocking to the capital region from across the country as Ontario continues to sputter. ' r+ C' w4 J$ B% f' v9 _- m5 g
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"There just won't be enough houses to sell," she sighed. ; J" C7 ~# x) Z) y4 q1 b; C# ^' S: V
1 v4 y. J: Z3 @" l% \& h4 PCanada Mortgage and Housing Corporation senior analyst Richard Goatcher was also talking a good-news-bad-news scenario at the board meeting. + @( ]0 ~) f; M4 K- D6 |# U
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"The big issue is, are we going to see continued in-migration into the city with the volumes we had last year?" Goatcher said. His expectation is "somewhat less."
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4 [# Z0 E8 R3 e/ UStill, total new-house starts will be "fairly similar" to last year's pace. 2006 turned out to be a record year. So was 2005. But Goatcher is predicting a 5% decrease in house starts. 2 \( T+ C3 @0 X5 R9 D* J* b
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"A lot of it is due to capacity issues," he said. Developers are running out of serviced lots in some areas. Some homebuilders "got a little overstretched" during last year's house-building frenzy. * u9 n3 q# O- ]5 H% G" F& d4 E0 Q
" |% `' l X2 ~0 \$ x x# b* k; @"There are too many shortages in the system," he shrugged.
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$ Z# T) A; v/ N2 O"But it's still going to be very, very strong," he quickly added, with the average new-home selling price ramping up by 20%. 6 t7 S" R$ }& x! ]
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NO PRICE BOOM REPEAT
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He also doesn't see a repeat of the 2006 price boom in the resale market, which he described as "unsustainable."
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Expect a more gentle 10% increase - mainly because many potential buyers are now being priced out of the market - even with zero down payment and 40-year mortgages.
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Over at ComFree Edmonton, president Travis Holowach was also celebrating what he described as a "steaming red hot" real estate market, and another "record-setting" year for his commission-free real estate service.
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5 N# h, I. J- i7 {# ?; p' Z. a% KHis 2006 wind-up report shows 4,375 total sales and 5,721 new listings, up 74% from 2005 - clearly sucking up a lot of the inventory that would otherwise have gone to an EREB realtor. - E$ ~: D6 a7 |2 U$ i- u$ O Y
' G; d. T. h+ B"Our growing presence in the marketplace is having a strong impact on the competition," Holowach winked.
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So strong that the Alberta Real Estate Association launched a complaint with Alberta Government Services claiming ComFree was bending the truth about its market share.
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Yesterday ComFree was still claiming 30% share of the residential market. And "commissions saved" of $82 million from his sell-it-yourself operation. Which, of course, is what the battle is really all about. 8 Q2 R/ w- X/ Z. E: j/ f
! }8 j; a' p3 L5 \ h6 s"We do 95% of the sales in the real estate market," Pratt countered. / d$ A4 a }7 n$ _$ w1 h+ _
" }( O( t( a6 E. Q# T& mLet the good times roll.
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* T. o' C; G% V7 M$ c% BPrevious story: Bottom Line
4 M3 @* F* {$ x1 e& Y1 g4 wNext story: Building permits hit record
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