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# L# D* @, O3 g0 L$ R! O7 l% s Thu January 11, 2007 www.edmontonsun.com
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Thu, January 11, 2007
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Price is still rightEdmonton Real Estate Board president expects a 15% climb in 2007
8 g& L6 @( V) B( s1 F/ Y# A: `By NEIL WAUGH, EDMONTON SUN& M: H2 [, S0 v. d& M/ P. Q
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They're changing the guard down at the Edmonton real estate palace. : o4 q) b( f2 E
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Madeline Sarafinchan is out. Carolyn Pratt is taking over the Edmonton Real Estate Board president's gavel - the kind of blunt instrument that some realtors, I suspect, would like to use on ComFree Edmonton upstart Travis Holowach. More on that later.
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! j4 q. X" H3 B8 ~" L0 H2 gBut first, the EREB president's bold predictions and fearless forecasts.
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3 W7 C- P/ R0 u# WDon't expect a repeat of last year's housing boom where condo and single family dwelling prices spiked an incredible 52%. Pratt is now calling for a more modest increase of 15%.
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& Q+ r. u. [. |'CONTINUED DEMAND'
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1 n0 H( W2 r' p: K, u/ y/ k"We feel the increase will come because there will be continued demand, consumer confidence, a very robust economy and low interest rates," Pratt whooped at the EREB's New Year's kick-off conference at the Westin. "All the factors are there for another terrific year."
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She predicted that the total number of residential sales isn't expected to increase in 2007 - despite thousands of pot-of-gold seekers still flocking to the capital region from across the country as Ontario continues to sputter. g# A- M; S7 t3 H; ~ M+ y
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"There just won't be enough houses to sell," she sighed. : v& X! l3 ]4 k6 M: O( t
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Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation senior analyst Richard Goatcher was also talking a good-news-bad-news scenario at the board meeting.
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"The big issue is, are we going to see continued in-migration into the city with the volumes we had last year?" Goatcher said. His expectation is "somewhat less." 9 ?$ ^/ I% D7 }; u: d% P
2 b! [0 i) i- I/ k4 rStill, total new-house starts will be "fairly similar" to last year's pace. 2006 turned out to be a record year. So was 2005. But Goatcher is predicting a 5% decrease in house starts. ) R( @6 G4 u/ P
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"A lot of it is due to capacity issues," he said. Developers are running out of serviced lots in some areas. Some homebuilders "got a little overstretched" during last year's house-building frenzy. : M/ r/ ^' a3 G% V* v0 w
0 z& e) W8 l( v. E/ W1 W"There are too many shortages in the system," he shrugged. 7 x7 d9 I/ l. \; B; i6 U# z
# T# ^; m/ x) s7 T- S"But it's still going to be very, very strong," he quickly added, with the average new-home selling price ramping up by 20%. . M9 | N# B( F5 z6 U B
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NO PRICE BOOM REPEAT
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- @7 |$ j' ~3 s; n: M4 hHe also doesn't see a repeat of the 2006 price boom in the resale market, which he described as "unsustainable."
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" h* _9 d1 S N6 gExpect a more gentle 10% increase - mainly because many potential buyers are now being priced out of the market - even with zero down payment and 40-year mortgages.
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Over at ComFree Edmonton, president Travis Holowach was also celebrating what he described as a "steaming red hot" real estate market, and another "record-setting" year for his commission-free real estate service.
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His 2006 wind-up report shows 4,375 total sales and 5,721 new listings, up 74% from 2005 - clearly sucking up a lot of the inventory that would otherwise have gone to an EREB realtor.
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"Our growing presence in the marketplace is having a strong impact on the competition," Holowach winked. - h5 v! i2 r9 q# P: T2 f
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So strong that the Alberta Real Estate Association launched a complaint with Alberta Government Services claiming ComFree was bending the truth about its market share.
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Yesterday ComFree was still claiming 30% share of the residential market. And "commissions saved" of $82 million from his sell-it-yourself operation. Which, of course, is what the battle is really all about. & h& K- E }+ Y& b* s
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"We do 95% of the sales in the real estate market," Pratt countered. 2 T& K m, g7 I
# n8 c k. i" z3 q- OLet the good times roll. . @1 f7 }3 W6 H
) d) v1 D7 {( Y0 |1 K3 ]8 BPrevious story: Bottom Line
6 x! o' X7 }. s8 G5 ~& H- f) pNext story: Building permits hit record4 r6 E; L7 I& I0 h. a F4 p8 ]
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