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3 V1 L6 r5 r. |$ Q7 s: I8 G Thu January 11, 2007 www.edmontonsun.com
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, ^) Y! {0 D5 }$ l9 xThu, January 11, 2007+ b L9 C, M% M% Y
# J* V/ C% V! B/ Q; S7 z$ YPrice is still rightEdmonton Real Estate Board president expects a 15% climb in 2007. [9 {9 W- c0 ]& r3 o# ?
By NEIL WAUGH, EDMONTON SUN: ?3 ?; L$ p. }9 n) N, G% n' [
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They're changing the guard down at the Edmonton real estate palace.
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$ S* }) P: E% hMadeline Sarafinchan is out. Carolyn Pratt is taking over the Edmonton Real Estate Board president's gavel - the kind of blunt instrument that some realtors, I suspect, would like to use on ComFree Edmonton upstart Travis Holowach. More on that later. , v1 Y! ~" [, A: Q ^
4 p! H" M9 G8 o. XBut first, the EREB president's bold predictions and fearless forecasts. 5 r, \8 N( T/ r; q5 t+ G+ Q
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Don't expect a repeat of last year's housing boom where condo and single family dwelling prices spiked an incredible 52%. Pratt is now calling for a more modest increase of 15%. ! N. \( X* |- I% _
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'CONTINUED DEMAND'
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% ]' l3 `" @: _7 L& D"We feel the increase will come because there will be continued demand, consumer confidence, a very robust economy and low interest rates," Pratt whooped at the EREB's New Year's kick-off conference at the Westin. "All the factors are there for another terrific year." 2 N% r+ c/ b/ d( e
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She predicted that the total number of residential sales isn't expected to increase in 2007 - despite thousands of pot-of-gold seekers still flocking to the capital region from across the country as Ontario continues to sputter. & c$ _4 r Z* E' R. f& \
1 H* M" ?7 b8 M% }8 N1 F" d( X"There just won't be enough houses to sell," she sighed. + q1 J* v8 m$ P0 b0 j
$ i: x9 w* j. b0 g9 i& RCanada Mortgage and Housing Corporation senior analyst Richard Goatcher was also talking a good-news-bad-news scenario at the board meeting.
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"The big issue is, are we going to see continued in-migration into the city with the volumes we had last year?" Goatcher said. His expectation is "somewhat less."
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Still, total new-house starts will be "fairly similar" to last year's pace. 2006 turned out to be a record year. So was 2005. But Goatcher is predicting a 5% decrease in house starts.
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% d) [& f7 r1 V"A lot of it is due to capacity issues," he said. Developers are running out of serviced lots in some areas. Some homebuilders "got a little overstretched" during last year's house-building frenzy. ; a5 g( r/ D, @% M! U& Z
- B' D( b6 ?1 A0 X"There are too many shortages in the system," he shrugged.
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"But it's still going to be very, very strong," he quickly added, with the average new-home selling price ramping up by 20%. 9 q) W; E B- `- |9 I
5 M1 O& h5 K+ PNO PRICE BOOM REPEAT
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8 W i: ?" D k, x5 B& PHe also doesn't see a repeat of the 2006 price boom in the resale market, which he described as "unsustainable." : U( I' M6 o8 |$ ~+ A
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Expect a more gentle 10% increase - mainly because many potential buyers are now being priced out of the market - even with zero down payment and 40-year mortgages.
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8 o* {0 p& Y& _( n: oOver at ComFree Edmonton, president Travis Holowach was also celebrating what he described as a "steaming red hot" real estate market, and another "record-setting" year for his commission-free real estate service. . {5 x# L7 s( P" a" x' O
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His 2006 wind-up report shows 4,375 total sales and 5,721 new listings, up 74% from 2005 - clearly sucking up a lot of the inventory that would otherwise have gone to an EREB realtor. $ l, t& J7 c3 h% V' _3 ]
9 n( Q! {& l4 c2 f3 b3 o8 |* x1 G2 {"Our growing presence in the marketplace is having a strong impact on the competition," Holowach winked.
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So strong that the Alberta Real Estate Association launched a complaint with Alberta Government Services claiming ComFree was bending the truth about its market share. . m: g1 Q* O) l! P! c, Q
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Yesterday ComFree was still claiming 30% share of the residential market. And "commissions saved" of $82 million from his sell-it-yourself operation. Which, of course, is what the battle is really all about.
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"We do 95% of the sales in the real estate market," Pratt countered. - e6 W' j& T' u- `$ R
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Let the good times roll.
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( K" N! j7 H5 nPrevious story: Bottom Line
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