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- }3 X& Q/ i' l: I/ I4 fThu, January 11, 2007
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5 |1 C! P; y! V2 ^Price is still rightEdmonton Real Estate Board president expects a 15% climb in 2007
% B1 W0 z1 Y& k' ?& qBy NEIL WAUGH, EDMONTON SUN
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They're changing the guard down at the Edmonton real estate palace.
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Madeline Sarafinchan is out. Carolyn Pratt is taking over the Edmonton Real Estate Board president's gavel - the kind of blunt instrument that some realtors, I suspect, would like to use on ComFree Edmonton upstart Travis Holowach. More on that later. 7 H) ]2 t/ @$ i- f5 y/ P" ]
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But first, the EREB president's bold predictions and fearless forecasts.
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Don't expect a repeat of last year's housing boom where condo and single family dwelling prices spiked an incredible 52%. Pratt is now calling for a more modest increase of 15%.
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/ }3 `+ k4 e3 M: |1 P; Z'CONTINUED DEMAND' ! l( F/ _7 {0 A( e0 E8 W
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6 r3 ]. r) i0 ]* o' ?"We feel the increase will come because there will be continued demand, consumer confidence, a very robust economy and low interest rates," Pratt whooped at the EREB's New Year's kick-off conference at the Westin. "All the factors are there for another terrific year."
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3 r$ ]6 K3 k% L9 p- O2 uShe predicted that the total number of residential sales isn't expected to increase in 2007 - despite thousands of pot-of-gold seekers still flocking to the capital region from across the country as Ontario continues to sputter.
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$ m# n4 E8 E& ?, u) J"There just won't be enough houses to sell," she sighed. % L) r% Q) O/ }% _7 E& f
, z7 W- p. }' Z, V! BCanada Mortgage and Housing Corporation senior analyst Richard Goatcher was also talking a good-news-bad-news scenario at the board meeting.
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* j ]+ v4 e# ]8 m/ e"The big issue is, are we going to see continued in-migration into the city with the volumes we had last year?" Goatcher said. His expectation is "somewhat less."
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& F. I$ r6 a* k& H0 x! [% [Still, total new-house starts will be "fairly similar" to last year's pace. 2006 turned out to be a record year. So was 2005. But Goatcher is predicting a 5% decrease in house starts.
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"A lot of it is due to capacity issues," he said. Developers are running out of serviced lots in some areas. Some homebuilders "got a little overstretched" during last year's house-building frenzy.
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"There are too many shortages in the system," he shrugged. " k1 H! k" L# y/ T
* v& t+ I2 e! T4 n- c"But it's still going to be very, very strong," he quickly added, with the average new-home selling price ramping up by 20%.
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NO PRICE BOOM REPEAT - k% P+ h- F! f2 _8 p. s1 \
: F: K# ~0 r9 l9 Y; Q. R% G/ V3 {He also doesn't see a repeat of the 2006 price boom in the resale market, which he described as "unsustainable."
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3 v3 e- Y2 B) B6 p SExpect a more gentle 10% increase - mainly because many potential buyers are now being priced out of the market - even with zero down payment and 40-year mortgages. $ u! Q" I+ h( B) P3 P: K; Z- k) ~3 o
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Over at ComFree Edmonton, president Travis Holowach was also celebrating what he described as a "steaming red hot" real estate market, and another "record-setting" year for his commission-free real estate service. ! g- y- [* r& u( V9 F/ Q$ @
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His 2006 wind-up report shows 4,375 total sales and 5,721 new listings, up 74% from 2005 - clearly sucking up a lot of the inventory that would otherwise have gone to an EREB realtor.
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$ ? n5 a* T4 \ m"Our growing presence in the marketplace is having a strong impact on the competition," Holowach winked. q: _: \- H# |0 F5 n- @; k" a
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So strong that the Alberta Real Estate Association launched a complaint with Alberta Government Services claiming ComFree was bending the truth about its market share.
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Yesterday ComFree was still claiming 30% share of the residential market. And "commissions saved" of $82 million from his sell-it-yourself operation. Which, of course, is what the battle is really all about. , ~( W/ Y" G6 e9 m) C
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"We do 95% of the sales in the real estate market," Pratt countered. 1 r' ]8 [ u7 P% [& i* R& Y
) `" V% f2 Q3 L( CLet the good times roll.
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( r( [* B. @. C# O2 n) c dPrevious story: Bottom Line. u4 v* U% @* c: O) O
Next story: Building permits hit record
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