鲜花( 152) 鸡蛋( 1)
|
楼主 |
发表于 2019-5-15 09:00
|
显示全部楼层
Black swan events is a metaphor that describes an event that comes as a surprise, has a major effect, and is often inappropriately rationalized after the fact with the benefit of hindsight. The term is based on an ancient saying that presumed black swans did not exist – a saying that became reinterpreted to teach a different lesson after black swans were discovered in the wild.
& J5 E/ Y3 I" {
, W i; Z ^0 fThe theory was developed by Nassim Nicholas Taleb to explain:
2 S, h4 X7 H# W, E( O: w* |( M3 X: \! P4 ~: q, f
1. The disproportionate role of high-profile, hard-to-predict, and rare events that are beyond the realm of normal expectations in history, science, finance, and technology.+ }6 h+ X h1 B; s- O" Z# s
2. The non-computability of the probability of the consequential rare events using scientific methods (owing to the very nature of small probabilities).. ~6 G' X, j0 o' w, ~3 q3 M! h
3. The psychological biases that blind people, both individually and collectively, to uncertainty and to a rare event's massive role in historical affairs. |
|