The number of new listing is 3 times of same period of last year

smalltown

The house inventory in Edmonton has gone up by 100% in recent couple of months.
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8 h, Y. s( a" x( x6 Q8 PWhy are so many listings coming to the market recently? Is it becasue that mortgage rates are going up and speculators are dumping their properties? Are the prices going to drop?

$ _, n4 f# J8 QWhat is your opinion?
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[ 本帖最后由 smalltown 于 2007-6-21 08:35 编辑 ]

牛眼熊心

确实, 近两个月来inventory增加了1倍, 也就是多了2千多个房子在售. 因为销售量还是保持稳定增长, 所以这些房子都是硬生生增加的, 哪儿来的呢?
1. 最近出现几百上千套租转售的房子. 看看mls就知道了
2. 去年建房的人换房
7 x" `8 N9 c7 p+ G3. 投资者去年的房子获利回吐
4. 以前的房子listing也不是就2000个, comfree上还有些呢, 如果comfree上不好卖, 有些人回转到mls

总的来说Edmonton还是个健康的市场, listing还不算多, 如果到7000以上就很危险了. 租转售的房子一般被投资者接手, 自住的买的很少, 由于出租市场的火暴, 这些房子很快会被消化. 而且卖一栋楼的人肯定是有经济实力的, 决定不会降价求售而带来恐慌抛盘, 他们甚至可以操纵listing, 随便收回一栋房子, listing就会下降一两百.

如果不出我所料, edmonton 的listing到8月份达到高峰, 然后慢满变少, 到10月份后维持5000以下. 到明年2月份又会达到3000左右.

smalltown

原帖由 dgg 于 2007-6-21 09:14 发表
/ Y7 M( b% U1 i" z6 D) a确实, 近两个月来inventory增加了1倍, 也就是多了2千多个房子在售. 因为销售量还是保持稳定增长, 所以这些房子都是硬生生增加的, 哪儿来的呢?
% t' i7 U" k* N6 c5 ]  d2 Z1. 最近出现几百上千套租转售的房子. 看看mls就知道了
2. 去年建 ...

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& H6 @6 f, [2 B( L1 w/ F# A3 XHow nice your life is! Don't need to go to work, just relax in your big comfy couch and watch your property value go up.

牛眼熊心

原帖由 smalltown 于 2007-6-21 10:02 发表
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How nice your life is! Don't need to go to work, just relax in your big comfy couch and watch your property value go up.

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# k+ E0 Q' |4 E客观的分析引来的是挖苦. 那你分析分析看, 让大家评评谁的更有说服力? 你上面说的话我肯定做不到, 但有很多人确实做到了, 嫉妒了?

BaiLing

如果不出我所料, edmonton 的listing到8月份达到高峰, 然后慢满变少, 到10月份后维持5000以下. 到明年2月份又会达到3000左右.

smalltown

原帖由 dgg 于 2007-6-21 10:12 发表
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客观的分析引来的是挖苦. 那你分析分析看, 让大家评评谁的更有说服力? 你上面说的话我肯定做不到, 但有很多人确实做到了, 嫉妒了?

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8 P( C7 \4 F) J, C) r. R2 b8 MJust kidding. Don't take it too seriously.

1 |, W  ^, ]! N. `! u% dWelcome your analysis.  But there is no major condo conversion on the COMFREE, but the numbers of listings also has gone up dramatically. How do you explain that?

牛眼熊心

原帖由 smalltown 于 2007-6-21 10:24 发表
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% o. t. @) f- W, U# @Just kidding. Don't take it too seriously.

Welcome your analysis.  But there is no major condo conversion on the COMFREE, but the numbers of listings also has gone up dramatically. How do ...

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comfree上有很多新房子卖, 都是去年开始建的, 特别是一些新condo, 这些都是投资者买的期房, 当然还有些旧的apartment. 现在投资者的目光已经转到萨省去了, 等萨省的热度过去后, 这些钱还会回来的. 哪儿最热钱就望哪流. 萨省后下一个热点是哪里? 大家猜猜.

音响神仙鱼

原帖由 dgg 于 2007-6-21 10:44 发表
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comfree上有很多新房子卖, 都是去年开始建的, 特别是一些新condo, 这些都是投资者买的期房, 当然还有些旧的apartment. 现在投资者的目光已经转到萨省去了, 等萨省的热度过去后, 这些钱还会回来的. 哪儿最热 ...

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5 x  V1 i' S+ r  w) t; h7 _Alberta?

edmontonrent

There are investors in comfree too. If you look closer, there are condos that were sold in MLS last month by realtors in batch,
% P/ {' u( e$ }and now selling at comfree by the induvidual new owner, add 10K to 20K for each condo.
; ]* ?1 [( k# s0 Q4 V! lI understand that some people want to wait the purchase until the price down this year. We are all depend on the hard-earned wages. However, think beforehand, that how much down will make you buy, 5%, 10%, or 20%. If you do not plan beforehand, then when the downtime really comes, you would still not able to react quicker than the sharp-nosed inverstors.
* r8 ~" }/ S8 k1 zAlso, make a plan that if the price goes up this year contrary to your wish, at how much point, you will admit that you make a wrong prediction, and do you want to adjust your purchaes/waiting opinion when you are wrong.

lalah

原帖由 dgg 于 2007-6-21 09:14 发表
...所以这些房子都是硬生生增加的, 哪儿来的呢?
: f3 v* _  r  W8 M1. 最近出现几百上千套租转售的房子. 看看mls就知道了
2. 去年建房的人换房
3. 投资者去年的房子获利回吐
4. 以前的房子listing也不是就2000个, comfree上还有些呢, 如果comfree上不好卖, 有些人回转到mls

1. 最近数月（也许更久）一直都有租转售的房子。貌似不是仅仅上个月才开始出现。
# P# c/ S. Q0 A8 j  z2. 每个月，每年都有人要换房
3. 这大概是主要原因
4. 这也不具有时间独特性
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所以根据这个分析，貌似结论还是：爱城买房者中投资比例相当大，主要还是如今的房价水平和利率上升导致了投资者获利回吐的欲望增加，所以listing 大幅上升。

瓦窑

原帖由 dgg 于 2007-6-21 10:44 发表

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comfree上有很多新房子卖, 都是去年开始建的, 特别是一些新condo, 这些都是投资者买的期房, 当然还有些旧的apartment. 现在投资者的目光已经转到萨省去了, 等萨省的热度过去后, 这些钱还会回来的. 哪儿最热 ...

萨省热的原因跟当年Alberta差不多，也是因为可能的石油开发前景。
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* S( C! X9 [* A. K4 S  h3 O至于下一个嘛。。。。不好猜。