Single Family info update Oct 1-10

QWE321

Edmonton Single Family Home
* |/ b7 {! _' q8 \  s+ SMLS Statistics(Unofficial)
9 D+ m+ F( D6 V# X  cIncludes Edmonton, St Albert, Sherwood Park, Spruce Grove, Stony Plain
Note: These areas do not coincide with the criteria used by the Edmonton Real Estate Board
6 \# [$ g7 e" Q0 ]
Date      Inventory  New Listings Added  Sales  30-Day Avg Price 30-Day Median Price SP/SF DOM Sales/NewListing Ratio  
3 n; c. `4 K+ @
2 g: \; Y9 K/ d& J/ M- ZOct 1-10 4879 678 185 429,254 394,000 295 40 27%
7 C1 `% a! k& r- V* h
Sep 2007 5030 2214 515 426,984 390,000 303 41 23%
2 o# p8 v- E) b4 ]7 y
Aug 2007 4656 2108 635 429,889 395,000 314 36 30%
7 R# R! ~8 a% E  A( u7 F- D5 B
5 b! A2 O5 Z  C2 f4 rJul 2007
# _# N& J: X" W, \- u+ v* O NA
2328
717
( f% e( ]3 f5 `; L) p 442,752
410,000
320
28
$ ^9 V, [. g# u2 C) [ 31%
8 E) \0 r4 `8 p/ u7 d- s. E
; m" @+ R3 E) j: h$ U1 R+ ~Jun 2007
8 }6 Y( b. n6 F# c NA
1 S. q/ q' o  p& V3 {% l+ Y 2661
$ }9 r# N/ ^! _5 D* T/ u, } 1011
& w: J# V& Z) u  W0 ?8 j: s 442,817
0 o1 b( T" u6 _" A7 V 409,000
9 m7 u  y: X* ?* v8 j 328
22
38%

3 l' D: H7 P& \% P9 KMay 2007
( ^+ A; @0 N$ d: i6 d NA
2288
1261
. k$ n* H3 ?; [* \; ~$ h- x1 R 451,216
% h& V( O/ F8 E9 ?/ \ 415,000
; V& Z0 a2 f+ b. d. ~& W 322
6 |# a7 X) ^6 J 19
" p, [7 x2 q  ]) a$ E 55%

紫光

存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
, t% _" ]. w. u% b2 I鉴定完毕！

WST

看来，存货似已见顶。
, m! |3 @" i: o0 H$ Y# z这几天，在街上又见现金收购房子的广告。

yj151

景之白干

原帖由 紫光 于 2007-10-16 22:03 发表
: x" H; B2 ~* s& _/ R0 l5 `存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
鉴定完毕！

- T: H: F/ `: T1 X6 x
" f) z6 F9 Q  f5 D$ `. \) I" T' F用十天的数据来和30天的比较，鉴定结果可靠吗？

Z

1）房价持续下跌，每尺从303跌到295。
2）成交房里大房子比重上升，使得每尺单价下跌但总的中位价上升。
3）存量惊人。每年秋冬，存量都会锐减。但现在是持平。考虑到季节因素，存量其实是增加了。

Z

原帖由 紫光 于 2007-10-16 22:03 发表
& Q! B+ ?* b/ ?9 b1 \" V! B存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
鉴定完毕！

9 h6 q9 @6 E# r呵呵，太不专业了吧。

" g5 w" d! _2 m& D新存量 = 旧存量 + 新列量 - 新销量 - 下市量

  L1 d+ x( s7 H) P就是说， 存量变化 = 新存量 - 旧存量 = 新列量 - 新销量 - 下市量 = 678 -185 - 下市量
6 @! w: O. ^% w! S- l4 ^4 t
7 }! P4 [+ o% N9 b* q这里面我们没有下市量的数据。你简单的回避新增的678和未知的下市量，你的算法也太粗糙了。

QWE321

Don't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

judyzh

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 08:21 发表
7 N+ p: D# }- _  ~: M, UDon't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

+ [; L7 N5 k3 C8 E4 o2 ^5 M: l

紫光

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 08:21 发表
Don't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

QWE321

In average sale 3000 per month, but last 6 months, the sales between 1000 to 2000.
Is the mean there are other 6000 potential buyers there?
How about all these potential buyers start taking their action?
% j: z, j$ ^7 i/ q$ z0 t3 Q* C4 [That is what i say half full or half empty.
0 L" x% N4 ^9 a- Tgood luck for people seeking their house.

水管工

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 10:09 发表
In average sale 3000 per month, but last 6 months, the sales between 1000 to 2000.
Is the mean there are other 6000 potential buyers there?
* D# R; ?) {" B' C" UHow about all these potential buyers start taking the ...

+ q4 M( m8 Y' [7 |4 p+ hI think a lot of investors and speculators are quitting from the market, it is too hard for them to make money. Instead, they are dumping their houses now to make a profit.

WST

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-16 16:13 发表
- B1 B3 l6 P( o* b7 M# U8 BEdmonton Single Family Home
0 v: c- c7 b' p2 G) r8 M+ I# oMLS Statistics(Unofficial)
Includes Edmonton, St Albert, Sherwood Park, Spruce Grove, Stony Plain
Note: These areas do not coincide with the criteria used by the  ...

QWE321:　这些数据来源于何处？是否可靠？又无网站连接?

QWE321

http://www.bobtruman.com/Edmonton_SFH_stats/page_1918017.html

小曲

原帖由 水管工 于 2007-10-17 10:23 发表

; v* n( f: s0 G# i
  M6 ~: S# a8 ^& N" }5 @, n  C5 sI think a lot of investors and speculators are quitting from the market, it is too hard for them to make money. Instead, they are dumping their houses now to make a profit.

( D; S/ E: U1 N+ B$ h. j. p

WST

原帖由 Z 于 2007-10-17 07:36 发表
* r: l$ Q3 o  W2 X% D1）房价持续下跌，每尺从303跌到295。
2）成交房里大房子比重上升，使得每尺单价下跌但总的中位价上升。
1 {' f. a4 J/ g8 [# A5 i3）存量惊人。每年秋冬，存量都会锐减。但现在是持平。考虑到季节因素，存量其实是增加了。

" n- u. V0 S- ^9 T" U下半年，存量通常会持续增加，以卡城为例，参考下图：


0 ~3 L1 R5 q, f$ H8 V" Z) E
. d" i- y: B4 W+ i1 k/ s# Z只有去年例外，存量在年末锐减。

WST

上图为days inventory 和 总存量有不同。总存量在年末的确大减。
看来，观察days inventory 更重要。