Single Family info update Oct 1-10

QWE321

Edmonton Single Family Home
" F7 B9 M6 }9 ]( [% E1 lMLS Statistics(Unofficial)
Includes Edmonton, St Albert, Sherwood Park, Spruce Grove, Stony Plain
Note: These areas do not coincide with the criteria used by the Edmonton Real Estate Board
! U( c6 p: i5 B
Date      Inventory  New Listings Added  Sales  30-Day Avg Price 30-Day Median Price SP/SF DOM Sales/NewListing Ratio  
, V  ]" B" ]9 y% O
Oct 1-10 4879 678 185 429,254 394,000 295 40 27%
- h) N% l; V( j3 ]8 p
2 ^% I# b# z7 A$ ASep 2007 5030 2214 515 426,984 390,000 303 41 23%

+ H* U: Q4 H, v0 [3 |; V" zAug 2007 4656 2108 635 429,889 395,000 314 36 30%
# {; I! e  m; b( D  D9 M1 m7 R
Jul 2007
NA
2328
. |" o8 L4 ^! u9 c  e- T; W  ~% X 717
442,752
% E, _" t4 c$ Y6 w 410,000
* Q. N- e. g% b- y 320
  u, D  |. w7 ~" w2 }$ U7 Y' h 28
31%

# V- a7 M- H( i. \' WJun 2007
NA
2661
9 ^1 {6 b% {( j: g. T 1011
7 G& |* a! `, K6 @ 442,817
409,000
328
( `9 K: ]7 u$ L/ a$ u 22
; M. B- c) P( Z/ {, v; o7 w- S8 l 38%
+ w5 B6 u/ {; l) Q
% j2 k. W  @6 j5 `+ q7 [3 x' H- \May 2007
NA
- ]( h( p2 f1 O3 F. X+ _& E# O* H 2288
) u% Q0 A1 \% w0 `" g+ E1 M( [ 1261
451,216
5 n# W, {( J1 U9 x 415,000
322
19
55%

紫光

存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
鉴定完毕！

WST

看来，存货似已见顶。
1 Q$ X. M0 c1 b9 @( K这几天，在街上又见现金收购房子的广告。

yj151

景之白干

原帖由 紫光 于 2007-10-16 22:03 发表
存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
! q; p1 v& L$ }, \2 Y8 G鉴定完毕！

4 l1 V- }  z  z. R% U. b用十天的数据来和30天的比较，鉴定结果可靠吗？

Z

1）房价持续下跌，每尺从303跌到295。
1 s3 a4 O" K0 m8 w- l2）成交房里大房子比重上升，使得每尺单价下跌但总的中位价上升。
3）存量惊人。每年秋冬，存量都会锐减。但现在是持平。考虑到季节因素，存量其实是增加了。

Z

原帖由 紫光 于 2007-10-16 22:03 发表
% D4 o9 n" o9 g, Y$ d" O) U存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
0 j# c) b$ ~! W5 ]0 N+ `9 L% I鉴定完毕！

" ]" T- w+ [! k" |8 _9 R* N
, o7 _, G" k6 h# A呵呵，太不专业了吧。
' h4 W( Q* Y8 u
! S' {5 }+ i& [, ^5 b新存量 = 旧存量 + 新列量 - 新销量 - 下市量

# G0 Z5 i) |+ X' x就是说， 存量变化 = 新存量 - 旧存量 = 新列量 - 新销量 - 下市量 = 678 -185 - 下市量

; s2 C; j) b7 l3 W: q0 n/ t, s' X( R这里面我们没有下市量的数据。你简单的回避新增的678和未知的下市量，你的算法也太粗糙了。

QWE321

Don't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

judyzh

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 08:21 发表
' q9 n4 a5 \* ?3 a4 w" m2 SDon't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

紫光

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 08:21 发表
, z% b5 _9 \5 rDon't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

QWE321

In average sale 3000 per month, but last 6 months, the sales between 1000 to 2000.
2 j4 W6 Z8 w7 U0 D, \Is the mean there are other 6000 potential buyers there?
How about all these potential buyers start taking their action?
That is what i say half full or half empty.
" }/ ], N# Y0 t  pgood luck for people seeking their house.

水管工

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 10:09 发表
+ d: r. a1 O  L, l' uIn average sale 3000 per month, but last 6 months, the sales between 1000 to 2000.
Is the mean there are other 6000 potential buyers there?
- l* ]: ~; U& A4 E: q9 [+ k8 [How about all these potential buyers start taking the ...

I think a lot of investors and speculators are quitting from the market, it is too hard for them to make money. Instead, they are dumping their houses now to make a profit.

WST

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-16 16:13 发表
Edmonton Single Family Home
MLS Statistics(Unofficial)
Includes Edmonton, St Albert, Sherwood Park, Spruce Grove, Stony Plain
, X. E5 W( v/ A6 x  J; w; o* ~Note: These areas do not coincide with the criteria used by the  ...

% z1 q2 D: q, S; b: k/ oQWE321:　这些数据来源于何处？是否可靠？又无网站连接?

QWE321

http://www.bobtruman.com/Edmonton_SFH_stats/page_1918017.html

小曲

原帖由 水管工 于 2007-10-17 10:23 发表

" y- u) g: R9 S) k1 }3 m7 \
I think a lot of investors and speculators are quitting from the market, it is too hard for them to make money. Instead, they are dumping their houses now to make a profit.

WST

原帖由 Z 于 2007-10-17 07:36 发表
  x/ M9 D1 @5 g1）房价持续下跌，每尺从303跌到295。
2）成交房里大房子比重上升，使得每尺单价下跌但总的中位价上升。
3）存量惊人。每年秋冬，存量都会锐减。但现在是持平。考虑到季节因素，存量其实是增加了。

. r+ \( M: O* p/ L( q
. b3 U/ v  }) j# N# T4 D0 v) U下半年，存量通常会持续增加，以卡城为例，参考下图：
: ?" p9 R: q( u
: \% y2 `8 o5 V! R. ]2 B
9 R- d) K8 c# B4 Z6 K5 ], H5 Y
只有去年例外，存量在年末锐减。

WST

上图为days inventory 和 总存量有不同。总存量在年末的确大减。
; a% F+ i4 s' b0 j* z' x! ?看来，观察days inventory 更重要。