Single Family info update Oct 1-10

QWE321

Edmonton Single Family Home
MLS Statistics(Unofficial)
Includes Edmonton, St Albert, Sherwood Park, Spruce Grove, Stony Plain
Note: These areas do not coincide with the criteria used by the Edmonton Real Estate Board
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Date      Inventory  New Listings Added  Sales  30-Day Avg Price 30-Day Median Price SP/SF DOM Sales/NewListing Ratio  
! E) Q* Z! t/ w9 w  B
Oct 1-10 4879 678 185 429,254 394,000 295 40 27%
* @9 w- _) j% g9 b  V) H
, D- O6 v2 g% Z7 a1 V5 `Sep 2007 5030 2214 515 426,984 390,000 303 41 23%
7 Y' x$ q8 B! H5 c
. }/ G: ?+ M" g& K2 _Aug 2007 4656 2108 635 429,889 395,000 314 36 30%
- w0 ]( p+ a; K5 v' h
Jul 2007
, L9 u& Z6 d' j) ^- C$ r6 q NA
7 p) N0 C" I6 }5 h1 F) Q 2328
  G; O- }9 G4 H) c) ~ 717
442,752
# y+ }1 Z! X' E' R" Y2 O 410,000
. O: @7 i' t& Q) S 320
6 `! x6 L8 z' q0 R1 b  i1 g3 ? 28
% D4 G! p+ P& W/ M3 _, j  { 31%

# A% M$ L' H$ ~* j0 q* V/ wJun 2007
NA
2661
1011
( S6 p8 d" U' ~ 442,817
409,000
328
! P+ I0 N2 M' K. x% d' z, Z7 y3 w 22
+ I# b* h. z5 I- }7 [6 t; Y/ a 38%

/ i. M" B* u! Q% H8 BMay 2007
. y2 {- E+ ~; K9 M8 B/ ^ NA
' x+ }4 E! {2 d- E; h* o 2288
/ [! r% h8 q  O/ v 1261
451,216
8 @4 A; f: Z0 t' G7 @, k' h3 ^% l) M 415,000
0 x% {$ J+ W2 V$ X 322
! v1 A4 p) A' n% h2 t3 O6 g; H 19
( b7 e& ~; w* u) M 55%

紫光

存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
* _% X3 S" t# k2 Q$ Q( B& D鉴定完毕！

WST

看来，存货似已见顶。
这几天，在街上又见现金收购房子的广告。

yj151

景之白干

原帖由 紫光 于 2007-10-16 22:03 发表
存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
鉴定完毕！

7 [2 K; s% Z2 d$ ^% z+ z
: F' g7 A" M- o- \6 w- S, X/ \用十天的数据来和30天的比较，鉴定结果可靠吗？

Z

1）房价持续下跌，每尺从303跌到295。
2）成交房里大房子比重上升，使得每尺单价下跌但总的中位价上升。
3）存量惊人。每年秋冬，存量都会锐减。但现在是持平。考虑到季节因素，存量其实是增加了。

Z

原帖由 紫光 于 2007-10-16 22:03 发表
存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
鉴定完毕！

7 p  D3 F! A7 X  v6 f/ t
: f. d" h" u4 N# _呵呵，太不专业了吧。

新存量 = 旧存量 + 新列量 - 新销量 - 下市量

% U. L3 {& a; }$ j( ~$ L$ e就是说， 存量变化 = 新存量 - 旧存量 = 新列量 - 新销量 - 下市量 = 678 -185 - 下市量
% Z. y% G) \8 n  W: d% V
这里面我们没有下市量的数据。你简单的回避新增的678和未知的下市量，你的算法也太粗糙了。

QWE321

Don't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

judyzh

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 08:21 发表
6 M" \0 d0 N& Z1 I; lDon't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

- g3 ~% a% I: {+ p- L$ G4 D! I
, v- P; n. @- \+ G

紫光

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 08:21 发表
Don't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

; V3 S( V6 G$ G, l4 W

QWE321

In average sale 3000 per month, but last 6 months, the sales between 1000 to 2000.
: F# J7 O' C' D# H2 b" DIs the mean there are other 6000 potential buyers there?
4 _* b- V! U6 Y0 h* T: n5 LHow about all these potential buyers start taking their action?
2 e- `! |, B- t6 Z/ ]- k6 OThat is what i say half full or half empty.
good luck for people seeking their house.

水管工

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 10:09 发表
In average sale 3000 per month, but last 6 months, the sales between 1000 to 2000.
Is the mean there are other 6000 potential buyers there?
How about all these potential buyers start taking the ...

0 b6 H* l# ~0 h6 M% P) wI think a lot of investors and speculators are quitting from the market, it is too hard for them to make money. Instead, they are dumping their houses now to make a profit.

WST

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-16 16:13 发表
Edmonton Single Family Home
8 O0 z8 E/ b7 D# {MLS Statistics(Unofficial)
Includes Edmonton, St Albert, Sherwood Park, Spruce Grove, Stony Plain
. A7 P1 k0 j& e/ tNote: These areas do not coincide with the criteria used by the  ...

QWE321:　这些数据来源于何处？是否可靠？又无网站连接?

QWE321

http://www.bobtruman.com/Edmonton_SFH_stats/page_1918017.html

小曲

原帖由 水管工 于 2007-10-17 10:23 发表
  Z: r: e& h% t  I- H7 ]9 L

! w+ r. l5 r+ ]3 ^. b1 sI think a lot of investors and speculators are quitting from the market, it is too hard for them to make money. Instead, they are dumping their houses now to make a profit.

WST

原帖由 Z 于 2007-10-17 07:36 发表
1）房价持续下跌，每尺从303跌到295。
2）成交房里大房子比重上升，使得每尺单价下跌但总的中位价上升。
& D7 X$ B) X! B6 y3 l, J/ T3）存量惊人。每年秋冬，存量都会锐减。但现在是持平。考虑到季节因素，存量其实是增加了。

/ ?+ w* G; M3 A下半年，存量通常会持续增加，以卡城为例，参考下图：
6 z% w$ w! k" B, F+ Y, x
2 X7 D' F# u* G" j/ e) i

# P$ X! u/ \' V4 m: R+ h只有去年例外，存量在年末锐减。

WST

上图为days inventory 和 总存量有不同。总存量在年末的确大减。
看来，观察days inventory 更重要。