Single Family info update Oct 1-10

QWE321

Edmonton Single Family Home
MLS Statistics(Unofficial)
Includes Edmonton, St Albert, Sherwood Park, Spruce Grove, Stony Plain
' k8 x; G5 }: }2 w, NNote: These areas do not coincide with the criteria used by the Edmonton Real Estate Board

* x% X: ]( S+ d% ^' S  CDate      Inventory  New Listings Added  Sales  30-Day Avg Price 30-Day Median Price SP/SF DOM Sales/NewListing Ratio  
8 a1 K; a! N2 V, [# T/ Y- ^
Oct 1-10 4879 678 185 429,254 394,000 295 40 27%
7 |6 i9 e5 W* I0 D6 p
Sep 2007 5030 2214 515 426,984 390,000 303 41 23%
6 l! ^* x* f) x$ S* ?6 R% {
! J, R' M5 z& I2 E- WAug 2007 4656 2108 635 429,889 395,000 314 36 30%

Jul 2007
NA
2328
717
442,752
410,000
" C  L9 B0 Y* _ 320
# s, S$ \" O) o4 H5 W$ G  \! t 28
1 ~# U/ g  y/ z. u 31%

" |- p' C7 M, q$ G+ pJun 2007
, w+ Y" A& X- o7 t$ B$ d  V NA
: Y1 @; \( ]* X( K 2661
+ j7 F( [$ R9 |  Z* W9 A( _8 ]2 ]# W 1011
442,817
409,000
328
2 ^& |2 d% i) ? 22
: Y6 N/ o% k1 L8 P7 H' e3 R 38%

6 P$ l; F0 T' H3 g: a4 t( c$ rMay 2007
NA
2288
1261
, X! G9 l- X% |6 x. M% P6 z 451,216
$ Y5 w$ v+ E" _0 K6 m6 M) G5 [ 415,000
% O% E# z' A$ L4 U 322
19
55%

紫光

存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
' b  C6 Q& |. W鉴定完毕！

WST

看来，存货似已见顶。
9 Z2 Z6 b3 U1 K0 O. N这几天，在街上又见现金收购房子的广告。

yj151

景之白干

原帖由 紫光 于 2007-10-16 22:03 发表
: j, A. j- o  |  I! b7 Z存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
3 v- ?; M5 W* p' N鉴定完毕！

; T4 i3 k5 \$ u  z2 v6 g3 F% Z
+ g$ ^( j, O. x/ ]9 I* e. F2 w用十天的数据来和30天的比较，鉴定结果可靠吗？

Z

1）房价持续下跌，每尺从303跌到295。
2）成交房里大房子比重上升，使得每尺单价下跌但总的中位价上升。
3）存量惊人。每年秋冬，存量都会锐减。但现在是持平。考虑到季节因素，存量其实是增加了。

Z

原帖由 紫光 于 2007-10-16 22:03 发表
存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
鉴定完毕！

呵呵，太不专业了吧。

+ z0 Z+ J7 N/ m0 N1 o新存量 = 旧存量 + 新列量 - 新销量 - 下市量
2 W/ T1 U% k: B6 F* C
就是说， 存量变化 = 新存量 - 旧存量 = 新列量 - 新销量 - 下市量 = 678 -185 - 下市量
! H2 w2 x6 Y3 B, z  Z! X, w
这里面我们没有下市量的数据。你简单的回避新增的678和未知的下市量，你的算法也太粗糙了。

QWE321

Don't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

judyzh

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 08:21 发表
; ^$ i2 F3 V7 y& `1 b! NDon't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

紫光

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 08:21 发表
Don't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

QWE321

In average sale 3000 per month, but last 6 months, the sales between 1000 to 2000.
Is the mean there are other 6000 potential buyers there?
% a6 Z: [7 m6 a$ o9 S; zHow about all these potential buyers start taking their action?
That is what i say half full or half empty.
2 ~. A" v7 L1 \1 A! T- p. Q* \' Zgood luck for people seeking their house.

水管工

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 10:09 发表
- X8 }, e2 }/ oIn average sale 3000 per month, but last 6 months, the sales between 1000 to 2000.
" H, ?4 s& L1 b4 \/ ~/ P- X; ZIs the mean there are other 6000 potential buyers there?
How about all these potential buyers start taking the ...

I think a lot of investors and speculators are quitting from the market, it is too hard for them to make money. Instead, they are dumping their houses now to make a profit.

WST

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-16 16:13 发表
Edmonton Single Family Home
2 r% A6 r: l1 qMLS Statistics(Unofficial)
Includes Edmonton, St Albert, Sherwood Park, Spruce Grove, Stony Plain
Note: These areas do not coincide with the criteria used by the  ...

QWE321:　这些数据来源于何处？是否可靠？又无网站连接?

QWE321

http://www.bobtruman.com/Edmonton_SFH_stats/page_1918017.html

小曲

原帖由 水管工 于 2007-10-17 10:23 发表
: R7 i4 `: j, h( Q

5 x1 f& c( ^1 s+ e( eI think a lot of investors and speculators are quitting from the market, it is too hard for them to make money. Instead, they are dumping their houses now to make a profit.

WST

原帖由 Z 于 2007-10-17 07:36 发表
1）房价持续下跌，每尺从303跌到295。
2）成交房里大房子比重上升，使得每尺单价下跌但总的中位价上升。
( `# k7 t6 g: K" H7 ~3）存量惊人。每年秋冬，存量都会锐减。但现在是持平。考虑到季节因素，存量其实是增加了。

% ]" i6 {" ]4 `# h* p8 [下半年，存量通常会持续增加，以卡城为例，参考下图：

4 m5 Y% V$ m) H! [; J

# \( j4 L& X1 U% X3 ~只有去年例外，存量在年末锐减。

WST

上图为days inventory 和 总存量有不同。总存量在年末的确大减。
看来，观察days inventory 更重要。