Single Family info update Oct 1-10

QWE321

Edmonton Single Family Home
MLS Statistics(Unofficial)
Includes Edmonton, St Albert, Sherwood Park, Spruce Grove, Stony Plain
* @4 \/ p3 V( i! ENote: These areas do not coincide with the criteria used by the Edmonton Real Estate Board
% h) W. b& B" b+ d
Date      Inventory  New Listings Added  Sales  30-Day Avg Price 30-Day Median Price SP/SF DOM Sales/NewListing Ratio  

Oct 1-10 4879 678 185 429,254 394,000 295 40 27%

: X1 k" T1 e  r: g) PSep 2007 5030 2214 515 426,984 390,000 303 41 23%

0 y- l& u+ C$ w; {! Y5 T0 _- ?Aug 2007 4656 2108 635 429,889 395,000 314 36 30%

Jul 2007
$ N0 i* _0 H2 l0 @ NA
% E( A" ], R3 `: ?9 d9 Q 2328
* v' f5 B0 @, G9 v6 H# J$ m$ I% X 717
442,752
410,000
! Z( S9 }( y/ }, k: `# a; \ 320
28
2 M! {; @: j' ]$ H; x6 h0 t# m& ? 31%
- V3 t% g& v0 B% Z
Jun 2007
/ y3 J) q: k- W- S  {) v NA
2661
; z) e3 w  Z* i, C 1011
0 j  O0 s6 W$ Z& E0 T% Y 442,817
9 r( m) @( Q7 ]# A' I9 a 409,000
. t( a, M7 X% Y" X! E4 ` 328
2 C5 E$ l/ Z3 B+ S  O" _7 I; L7 T 22
38%

May 2007
& I: N( o& x8 k2 u NA
- }+ L3 o0 B* T 2288
1261
* r' z1 j$ u5 y4 w 451,216
415,000
4 B" D* q, v5 K 322
2 a- u3 C. f* P0 m& D. Q* g# P6 @ 19
, i+ ?% }2 x: D: B, G& A: ^ 55%

紫光

存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
. c. i& ~* M- ^) q9 V鉴定完毕！

WST

看来，存货似已见顶。
这几天，在街上又见现金收购房子的广告。

yj151

景之白干

原帖由 紫光 于 2007-10-16 22:03 发表
存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
鉴定完毕！

& n) X% j  n: P, T& z用十天的数据来和30天的比较，鉴定结果可靠吗？

Z

1）房价持续下跌，每尺从303跌到295。
. V* N) E, I1 {. Z* m$ k4 F& ^2）成交房里大房子比重上升，使得每尺单价下跌但总的中位价上升。
3）存量惊人。每年秋冬，存量都会锐减。但现在是持平。考虑到季节因素，存量其实是增加了。

Z

原帖由 紫光 于 2007-10-16 22:03 发表
存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
鉴定完毕！

: Q$ a7 p! \3 u" q! h( @# }呵呵，太不专业了吧。
, k- F9 o, ?, }' d2 H; [% X
新存量 = 旧存量 + 新列量 - 新销量 - 下市量
) _, `6 Z4 ~1 p% ]3 i" i5 N0 H
就是说， 存量变化 = 新存量 - 旧存量 = 新列量 - 新销量 - 下市量 = 678 -185 - 下市量

这里面我们没有下市量的数据。你简单的回避新增的678和未知的下市量，你的算法也太粗糙了。

QWE321

Don't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

judyzh

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 08:21 发表
; G. j# Z+ q: R' V0 LDon't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

. w' ~7 i, _, t2 W1 G" w, K& C" {; }

紫光

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 08:21 发表
1 N$ g" K. H+ ?* [9 \7 {Don't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

QWE321

In average sale 3000 per month, but last 6 months, the sales between 1000 to 2000.
$ |  u5 V8 {( w" U3 P  W, A) {& C  zIs the mean there are other 6000 potential buyers there?
How about all these potential buyers start taking their action?
5 q7 H& C. Q3 T4 B$ KThat is what i say half full or half empty.
# {5 M8 i7 b2 agood luck for people seeking their house.

水管工

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 10:09 发表
In average sale 3000 per month, but last 6 months, the sales between 1000 to 2000.
Is the mean there are other 6000 potential buyers there?
; \3 N6 i, V! G: pHow about all these potential buyers start taking the ...

0 {% L9 k  M' ~
& c) F& p+ F0 T$ i' s" AI think a lot of investors and speculators are quitting from the market, it is too hard for them to make money. Instead, they are dumping their houses now to make a profit.

WST

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-16 16:13 发表
Edmonton Single Family Home
# u) ~: W, q& E6 i$ s, n- g; ^MLS Statistics(Unofficial)
Includes Edmonton, St Albert, Sherwood Park, Spruce Grove, Stony Plain
Note: These areas do not coincide with the criteria used by the  ...

! A8 L3 u. a9 `QWE321:　这些数据来源于何处？是否可靠？又无网站连接?

QWE321

http://www.bobtruman.com/Edmonton_SFH_stats/page_1918017.html

小曲

原帖由 水管工 于 2007-10-17 10:23 发表
+ C& a$ M! @" `( ?

: @& V4 H3 E, h4 Q3 L" S& pI think a lot of investors and speculators are quitting from the market, it is too hard for them to make money. Instead, they are dumping their houses now to make a profit.

5 W$ q0 O% I) w$ c6 G

WST

原帖由 Z 于 2007-10-17 07:36 发表
3 k2 }* F: J. K* f+ f: l1）房价持续下跌，每尺从303跌到295。
2）成交房里大房子比重上升，使得每尺单价下跌但总的中位价上升。
& J- N: q5 C  u3）存量惊人。每年秋冬，存量都会锐减。但现在是持平。考虑到季节因素，存量其实是增加了。

; P' Y; ?: ?$ n# S& s! [& i
9 i0 `' ?  j5 p, ~; J下半年，存量通常会持续增加，以卡城为例，参考下图：

7 i, Q0 N+ I: N8 R
& @0 ~+ a, F0 w8 G
只有去年例外，存量在年末锐减。

WST

上图为days inventory 和 总存量有不同。总存量在年末的确大减。
看来，观察days inventory 更重要。