Single Family info update Oct 1-10

QWE321

Edmonton Single Family Home
MLS Statistics(Unofficial)
Includes Edmonton, St Albert, Sherwood Park, Spruce Grove, Stony Plain
Note: These areas do not coincide with the criteria used by the Edmonton Real Estate Board

; o3 e; Q1 e5 T4 R8 `Date      Inventory  New Listings Added  Sales  30-Day Avg Price 30-Day Median Price SP/SF DOM Sales/NewListing Ratio  
: v) ]* M, r, a+ G# j8 d" `
Oct 1-10 4879 678 185 429,254 394,000 295 40 27%
% I# P& C+ l& q3 Q
Sep 2007 5030 2214 515 426,984 390,000 303 41 23%

Aug 2007 4656 2108 635 429,889 395,000 314 36 30%
  U5 |+ o- N4 _3 O) i
Jul 2007
NA
2328
  i# \# _& ?3 \1 s2 z# R. ^ 717
" p8 y& u' Z9 d) J2 i0 T- [% U 442,752
410,000
320
28
31%
$ @. Y; ^; m# Y% A9 i; U6 m2 S9 y
* ]7 G$ a) E3 O& _Jun 2007
' ]$ }8 m/ [! V) ?  e1 |+ w$ V NA
2661
1011
5 L4 t4 I5 l* y% T7 o 442,817
7 q# i! ~8 V. U. S 409,000
328
22
38%
5 m+ `# l7 I2 l- x0 t$ ]8 `
6 w* H) o8 M& W9 ZMay 2007
NA
1 C# c) t) s  @3 `" f% M 2288
: Q3 j) }8 B) ]: b 1261
451,216
* A9 E/ }+ l! w 415,000
, g# G1 g8 G2 x! h6 t' p) @ 322
19
55%

紫光

存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
鉴定完毕！

WST

看来，存货似已见顶。
这几天，在街上又见现金收购房子的广告。

yj151

景之白干

原帖由 紫光 于 2007-10-16 22:03 发表
存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
鉴定完毕！

6 T8 L% t8 ^' r- ]0 f
" ^* a9 v  Z+ m5 S( b用十天的数据来和30天的比较，鉴定结果可靠吗？

Z

1）房价持续下跌，每尺从303跌到295。
2）成交房里大房子比重上升，使得每尺单价下跌但总的中位价上升。
3）存量惊人。每年秋冬，存量都会锐减。但现在是持平。考虑到季节因素，存量其实是增加了。

Z

原帖由 紫光 于 2007-10-16 22:03 发表
: o) L9 J) C/ f9 p+ t2 M, z存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
鉴定完毕！

( k' o7 {, J! ^) a# i
呵呵，太不专业了吧。
# ]7 v7 s9 ~. i$ m# Q
新存量 = 旧存量 + 新列量 - 新销量 - 下市量

5 Z0 t" M8 V! p% J就是说， 存量变化 = 新存量 - 旧存量 = 新列量 - 新销量 - 下市量 = 678 -185 - 下市量
; K$ P& Q' U1 j9 E  d; [) z
- w) b8 ^+ h+ a. v: Z2 ]8 I6 U这里面我们没有下市量的数据。你简单的回避新增的678和未知的下市量，你的算法也太粗糙了。

QWE321

Don't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

judyzh

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 08:21 发表
Don't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

紫光

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 08:21 发表
% K: u6 I6 ^6 f# p5 g1 FDon't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

QWE321

In average sale 3000 per month, but last 6 months, the sales between 1000 to 2000.
Is the mean there are other 6000 potential buyers there?
9 H- C% F8 f# {) |7 w* l2 ZHow about all these potential buyers start taking their action?
$ c* ^' u& o. b, H( B2 _That is what i say half full or half empty.
good luck for people seeking their house.

水管工

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 10:09 发表
In average sale 3000 per month, but last 6 months, the sales between 1000 to 2000.
# _  L& f' r" ~- W* yIs the mean there are other 6000 potential buyers there?
How about all these potential buyers start taking the ...

. q6 q. e9 G4 O& o6 I
I think a lot of investors and speculators are quitting from the market, it is too hard for them to make money. Instead, they are dumping their houses now to make a profit.

WST

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-16 16:13 发表
+ Q: p& E0 m$ Q; Y, u5 ]Edmonton Single Family Home
' x- U4 l: J/ ~5 c4 P& wMLS Statistics(Unofficial)
% t, N, B' J* k3 cIncludes Edmonton, St Albert, Sherwood Park, Spruce Grove, Stony Plain
Note: These areas do not coincide with the criteria used by the  ...

QWE321:　这些数据来源于何处？是否可靠？又无网站连接?

QWE321

http://www.bobtruman.com/Edmonton_SFH_stats/page_1918017.html

小曲

原帖由 水管工 于 2007-10-17 10:23 发表
8 U6 Y! {% d' g) P* X7 s$ ?
6 g0 \! K9 @8 @) @5 X" g* m
I think a lot of investors and speculators are quitting from the market, it is too hard for them to make money. Instead, they are dumping their houses now to make a profit.

WST

原帖由 Z 于 2007-10-17 07:36 发表
1）房价持续下跌，每尺从303跌到295。
2）成交房里大房子比重上升，使得每尺单价下跌但总的中位价上升。
# z! o1 @6 Z! t/ v& x, K) c3）存量惊人。每年秋冬，存量都会锐减。但现在是持平。考虑到季节因素，存量其实是增加了。

  `9 g/ [0 ]3 r+ e6 _: ~2 q下半年，存量通常会持续增加，以卡城为例，参考下图：


  U5 G4 p$ Q( p
只有去年例外，存量在年末锐减。

WST

上图为days inventory 和 总存量有不同。总存量在年末的确大减。
看来，观察days inventory 更重要。