Single Family info update Oct 1-10

QWE321

Edmonton Single Family Home
4 F3 u2 d; L+ D0 yMLS Statistics(Unofficial)
+ q  J# e) z" DIncludes Edmonton, St Albert, Sherwood Park, Spruce Grove, Stony Plain
Note: These areas do not coincide with the criteria used by the Edmonton Real Estate Board
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Date      Inventory  New Listings Added  Sales  30-Day Avg Price 30-Day Median Price SP/SF DOM Sales/NewListing Ratio  

Oct 1-10 4879 678 185 429,254 394,000 295 40 27%
6 n* m; v7 a8 _5 t5 k. e* A
0 O- i  `" g" Y. }7 r& {' OSep 2007 5030 2214 515 426,984 390,000 303 41 23%
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4 ]& \3 ?& j- t# M1 i2 xAug 2007 4656 2108 635 429,889 395,000 314 36 30%
9 F9 i' L, Z7 G) l+ L
Jul 2007
" r; r+ S! ?4 t+ }7 _ NA
2328
717
. P) m  i! R9 l+ s" r 442,752
% n, L. C# p) h) l 410,000
320
6 x# o5 \$ {+ g& D* o 28
31%

Jun 2007
NA
- w" [7 }3 Z3 T  G# K# w 2661
7 _/ T. n9 s2 \ 1011
  \/ i  {! R9 X7 }0 r9 Y 442,817
& L( u1 x7 \  T/ Y 409,000
4 d% C: k, c, X0 [* J' D" O" p; v7 ] 328
22
. V5 {7 w: Z5 a1 R( M- {/ ^ 38%
, e* g: y, U. V
May 2007
' u) W5 k+ f8 u6 E! t+ [2 }9 P NA
1 U; W0 y  e( x  r% c7 C 2288
1261
451,216
415,000
% B3 D, f# U% ^* W 322
19
6 A8 S1 e+ @9 b& K: j- K# e 55%

紫光

存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
! n% v) s$ v8 V8 `! A& q鉴定完毕！

WST

看来，存货似已见顶。
这几天，在街上又见现金收购房子的广告。

yj151

景之白干

原帖由 紫光 于 2007-10-16 22:03 发表
( O2 q$ @  W0 ?7 U存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
6 H! Z( V- G0 H9 |1 L5 z7 P鉴定完毕！

用十天的数据来和30天的比较，鉴定结果可靠吗？

Z

1）房价持续下跌，每尺从303跌到295。
2）成交房里大房子比重上升，使得每尺单价下跌但总的中位价上升。
3）存量惊人。每年秋冬，存量都会锐减。但现在是持平。考虑到季节因素，存量其实是增加了。

Z

原帖由 紫光 于 2007-10-16 22:03 发表
. S* V4 r- n/ W5 J9 R存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
鉴定完毕！

% l- f( @/ l) g! Q$ _' F' A7 k
呵呵，太不专业了吧。

新存量 = 旧存量 + 新列量 - 新销量 - 下市量
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9 M0 H" \# j  A; k1 c7 g+ N7 f- P就是说， 存量变化 = 新存量 - 旧存量 = 新列量 - 新销量 - 下市量 = 678 -185 - 下市量
8 ~8 ]& }5 H% g, w8 ?& A
这里面我们没有下市量的数据。你简单的回避新增的678和未知的下市量，你的算法也太粗糙了。

QWE321

Don't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

judyzh

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 08:21 发表
Don't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

( H; b; t: a) [+ c$ [

紫光

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 08:21 发表
Don't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

QWE321

In average sale 3000 per month, but last 6 months, the sales between 1000 to 2000.
Is the mean there are other 6000 potential buyers there?
; w0 S/ l* {& b1 l7 q( c0 fHow about all these potential buyers start taking their action?
That is what i say half full or half empty.
: h% m* p6 L# Y- pgood luck for people seeking their house.

水管工

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 10:09 发表
In average sale 3000 per month, but last 6 months, the sales between 1000 to 2000.
Is the mean there are other 6000 potential buyers there?
How about all these potential buyers start taking the ...

I think a lot of investors and speculators are quitting from the market, it is too hard for them to make money. Instead, they are dumping their houses now to make a profit.

WST

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-16 16:13 发表
Edmonton Single Family Home
MLS Statistics(Unofficial)
! Z" w, ~5 F$ `% _Includes Edmonton, St Albert, Sherwood Park, Spruce Grove, Stony Plain
+ c6 x: x" a/ u6 y) INote: These areas do not coincide with the criteria used by the  ...

QWE321:　这些数据来源于何处？是否可靠？又无网站连接?

QWE321

http://www.bobtruman.com/Edmonton_SFH_stats/page_1918017.html

小曲

原帖由 水管工 于 2007-10-17 10:23 发表
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  @7 Z$ m7 t4 S  j3 }
, u9 w+ C4 ?' t( I1 xI think a lot of investors and speculators are quitting from the market, it is too hard for them to make money. Instead, they are dumping their houses now to make a profit.

WST

原帖由 Z 于 2007-10-17 07:36 发表
1）房价持续下跌，每尺从303跌到295。
) |) F- z; [& i% p2）成交房里大房子比重上升，使得每尺单价下跌但总的中位价上升。
+ D! e" G, B% ~3）存量惊人。每年秋冬，存量都会锐减。但现在是持平。考虑到季节因素，存量其实是增加了。

9 b  J$ {  s) |3 {+ R下半年，存量通常会持续增加，以卡城为例，参考下图：


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只有去年例外，存量在年末锐减。

WST

上图为days inventory 和 总存量有不同。总存量在年末的确大减。
. ^& v3 A& X; ], p看来，观察days inventory 更重要。