Single Family info update Oct 1-10

QWE321

Edmonton Single Family Home
1 F) u' y, y% q1 K7 X6 r" O/ A: kMLS Statistics(Unofficial)
6 p$ E: G& \, S4 E& `+ ?6 rIncludes Edmonton, St Albert, Sherwood Park, Spruce Grove, Stony Plain
8 B* O0 t* i& A, u- v0 Q9 jNote: These areas do not coincide with the criteria used by the Edmonton Real Estate Board

Date      Inventory  New Listings Added  Sales  30-Day Avg Price 30-Day Median Price SP/SF DOM Sales/NewListing Ratio  

Oct 1-10 4879 678 185 429,254 394,000 295 40 27%

+ L8 x2 o) ^9 Q: ]) f7 b/ PSep 2007 5030 2214 515 426,984 390,000 303 41 23%

! S2 b5 {$ m+ ^/ V1 JAug 2007 4656 2108 635 429,889 395,000 314 36 30%

0 ?3 x# X( o8 J9 W# I  T1 C1 YJul 2007
NA
* N2 k' ?+ e. P( B! O 2328
6 Q/ _: `9 G& ^- ? 717
442,752
$ C3 m- p( U4 ?' J4 l 410,000
320
% d* m, n: p5 Y8 T. n; g3 c 28
+ m5 M, t( Z. N: Q 31%
+ [+ ~5 ~3 T; U
* H+ V1 g; A0 d$ A! K7 W8 MJun 2007
  d- f+ z. ?8 H7 Z$ X2 d% r+ s0 b NA
2661
. z0 n$ F. ?- h0 s% E7 q1 S 1011
1 R( P. J# P$ t 442,817
409,000
7 {8 v1 R2 s8 s; N3 y 328
7 F6 D, K) Y0 E" c5 Z8 b 22
) w2 \3 U! G0 E: W- F 38%

. Q0 @* e. u# u( B: w% F' FMay 2007
3 r4 b. Z, M9 ] NA
* |# Q- J6 g& }& G% e$ G" i 2288
6 z, I! d4 f% Y3 _) L4 ]& i# M2 D 1261
: [. [0 X: E( z: l 451,216
* L0 V, _6 r4 [" E 415,000
# Y' T3 Z# b; C$ T 322
  a- p/ ]) w4 [1 T* r, w 19
55%

紫光

存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
8 q- I% _8 B- i8 G鉴定完毕！

WST

看来，存货似已见顶。
1 j: A2 E5 B0 x) s0 o  ~这几天，在街上又见现金收购房子的广告。

yj151

景之白干

原帖由 紫光 于 2007-10-16 22:03 发表
存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
4 b0 s( M0 t& c* T% s+ ~7 a0 ^1 R鉴定完毕！

- j3 X- J: A* ]7 B4 V5 Y+ r
  K8 p  R1 R* e8 w* G0 ?# o用十天的数据来和30天的比较，鉴定结果可靠吗？

Z

1）房价持续下跌，每尺从303跌到295。
1 m# N3 s4 K  q1 ?5 T' G! a2）成交房里大房子比重上升，使得每尺单价下跌但总的中位价上升。
5 K, t& Q. K) g3 L- b3）存量惊人。每年秋冬，存量都会锐减。但现在是持平。考虑到季节因素，存量其实是增加了。

Z

原帖由 紫光 于 2007-10-16 22:03 发表
. J% i+ W; F( T" E- \3 l# H& e存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
4 ~; t% q( V# ~) a8 D8 s7 H+ {0 i鉴定完毕！

& e; x* }2 S" A. w5 c呵呵，太不专业了吧。
& |2 l+ L9 S" _. ^4 K, K5 u6 k
" k% s. x. T4 H; |! `% }- X6 z新存量 = 旧存量 + 新列量 - 新销量 - 下市量
( b& z7 z/ w6 s3 Z. a) r: w0 _
  R) [- t0 k* @- M就是说， 存量变化 = 新存量 - 旧存量 = 新列量 - 新销量 - 下市量 = 678 -185 - 下市量
' j1 l" |6 V# m, Y- W# O7 a
5 q- {# c/ Q' G4 }4 V2 G2 d这里面我们没有下市量的数据。你简单的回避新增的678和未知的下市量，你的算法也太粗糙了。

QWE321

Don't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

judyzh

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 08:21 发表
Don't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

紫光

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 08:21 发表
4 L7 e5 F  s9 S6 w9 N+ @Don't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

QWE321

In average sale 3000 per month, but last 6 months, the sales between 1000 to 2000.
Is the mean there are other 6000 potential buyers there?
: n2 p3 }# P' A+ bHow about all these potential buyers start taking their action?
* G. ^7 B7 \" F2 p5 _That is what i say half full or half empty.
good luck for people seeking their house.

水管工

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 10:09 发表
; [! l0 l7 W  S- ?+ o; l& @' gIn average sale 3000 per month, but last 6 months, the sales between 1000 to 2000.
, G# J  F* c1 l8 z, m& m1 P' GIs the mean there are other 6000 potential buyers there?
: C2 u( b. j5 i# `, u- ~How about all these potential buyers start taking the ...

" g% Y9 W* j' A
I think a lot of investors and speculators are quitting from the market, it is too hard for them to make money. Instead, they are dumping their houses now to make a profit.

WST

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-16 16:13 发表
6 F% A$ b, w7 F! |* wEdmonton Single Family Home
0 h- \- g! e" U* X4 t) |$ E0 ^MLS Statistics(Unofficial)
! k( R, P% Z1 T. e3 {Includes Edmonton, St Albert, Sherwood Park, Spruce Grove, Stony Plain
Note: These areas do not coincide with the criteria used by the  ...

# A5 d2 F1 ~! G1 z% u1 q0 `* l+ ~QWE321:　这些数据来源于何处？是否可靠？又无网站连接?

QWE321

http://www.bobtruman.com/Edmonton_SFH_stats/page_1918017.html

小曲

原帖由 水管工 于 2007-10-17 10:23 发表
: ~$ |0 @0 C& j) `. G2 D' _$ v. m
+ R% c$ c+ D. R+ K! U
$ ]! [) n2 x& A2 [I think a lot of investors and speculators are quitting from the market, it is too hard for them to make money. Instead, they are dumping their houses now to make a profit.

WST

原帖由 Z 于 2007-10-17 07:36 发表
4 d, w3 d% V7 Z. i+ x( Z! c1）房价持续下跌，每尺从303跌到295。
( F0 V7 l8 g: Q5 Z2 r/ u2）成交房里大房子比重上升，使得每尺单价下跌但总的中位价上升。
3）存量惊人。每年秋冬，存量都会锐减。但现在是持平。考虑到季节因素，存量其实是增加了。

1 o0 D" Z8 L1 s% h
9 |+ ~0 Y) ~0 P; H/ `下半年，存量通常会持续增加，以卡城为例，参考下图：

5 Z% p6 _3 h  `; t# P  G
+ v9 o- b' G- R2 g7 P, L9 h6 J) y. H$ |
  I0 p- w9 b8 {: `& a2 G; G只有去年例外，存量在年末锐减。

WST

上图为days inventory 和 总存量有不同。总存量在年末的确大减。
) k) v5 N! \* w- @看来，观察days inventory 更重要。