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Oilsands an emerging global growth star
, ?; E* q( ]8 q# ?8 U8 RExxonMobil forecast predicts output of four million barrels a day by 2030& I2 C% @9 d+ f9 C- @- G; R
Gordon Jaremko, The Edmonton Journal
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& Q/ r6 R& ?; j% [' e j- ~EDMONTON - As oil leaps towards a new landmark high of $100 US a barrel, the world's top investor-owned producer has singled out Alberta as an emerging global star of production growth.# Z: l. ~3 q( V
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Oilsands output will multiply fourfold to more than four million barrels daily by 2030, ExxonMobil Corp. predicts in a new international industry outlook report. And that forecast errs on the conservative side by projecting "fundamentals" of demand and supply trends instead of relying on prices to stay sky-high, ExxonMobil spokesman Allan Jeffers said Tuesday.
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. D* w2 m) z* e; ] ^' MOil jumped to $96.67 a barrel, up $2.69 in New York trading Tuesday on fears of global supply disruptions after storms battered North Sea production platforms and guerrillas attacked a pipeline in Yemen.6 G# [9 x9 U$ G& C- x6 o2 ^5 @
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( S3 J- x% v. p5 A" P$ kGasoline prices in Edmonton were 99.9 cents per litre at many stations on Tuesday.- s$ A# D3 e; u& H5 b
Larry Wong, The Journal$ O! {- O/ ~4 V" L
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Edmonton refinery postings for Alberta output Tuesday ranged from $60.74 for low-grade heavy crude to $91.11 for premium oilsands synthetic production. The Canadian benchmarks are translations of international prices, adjusted for pipeline tolls and currency exchange rates.
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# b7 C4 S+ Y3 ^* m5 q( s; tExxonMobil's high oilsands expectations are realistic and reasonable, said Bob Dunbar, an Alberta industry veteran whose Strategy West Inc. specializes in the field.
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& n, e. S2 g% m& COutput from the northern bitumen belt would grow to six million barrels a day if all known projects were built on their announced schedules, Dunbar said.
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* u# x- u% S) mWhile no one believes the current spike will last, the looming new record high is seen as confirming that a new era of premium prices has arrived to stay, he said. h6 R3 t1 [+ O/ a) \
# q9 W4 {, L0 |7 h$ s5 I% sWhen the oilsands rush began in the late 1990s developers only relied on markets to stay in a range of $20 to $30 a barrel. To be profitable, new projects today count on sustained averages in a higher band of $60 to $70, Dunbar estimated. |
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