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Attention Real Estate Reporters: % ?% e$ y+ |7 `5 I! B
: X8 O: y5 a ~6 B- q# h6 y
Despite US housing woes Canadian real estate remains upbeat : Z, w) z+ M& V0 Z' _5 c- }% i
TORONTO, Nov. 5 /CNW/ - Leading real estate experts are predicting the US
" `, F* n% n. S* t& A8 d1 D1 Ucommercial real estate market will slow in 2008 and follow a similar pattern
# H+ i; D- X% G( qas the current residential market. However, according to the annual Emerging! b( ?, Q4 r H/ d( t" p" Q
Trends in Real Estate 2008 report, released by PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC)- P8 y5 q$ ~& P B5 r. `2 F
and the Urban Land Institute (ULI), their Canadian counterparts are much more( P* Y8 v% [. s+ i# n0 u
upbeat.
; c( [6 m- }6 p/ S" j) g Now in its 29th year, Emerging Trends is the oldest, most highly regarded
- O" e+ d# ~ G! k& W2 h( _annual industry outlook for the real estate industry. The report reflects- C3 P2 T( D# f8 X1 x
interviews with and surveys of more than 600 of the industry's leading real9 T# J: C0 q M8 {0 n* w
estate experts, including investors, developers, property company; E8 u! |% @$ k* L* U1 @- ]
representatives, lenders, brokers and consultants in both Canada and the US.
$ T, u1 E# c! n1 a: x; S! L5 ?Other versions of this report are conducted in countries around the world6 M w/ o& x: }) F3 c& `) f1 n
including Asia Pacific and Europe.
1 F* L: U6 {. J4 L; X! R According to Chris Potter, PwC partner and leader of the firm's Canadian$ c. a+ g, ~ @
Real Estate Tax practice, Canada benefits from a more conservative investment, m8 Z! C }3 U
environment than the US. "In Canada, institution-dominated markets appear to
2 Q! t$ O7 \) W4 X {9 [' r }1 Qbe avoiding 'transaction mania', but real estate values have reached record9 v* O6 q" t1 w3 M+ I1 Z
highs and a strong economy has accelerated tenant demand for space."
* N# j) I7 t1 ~. h0 h. M According to American respondents, a healthy correction south of the) u) B' e' Z" g8 N: B, z: [
border will likely bypass long-term investors but penalize late-to-the-game
2 z/ d9 ]. a, F/ hspeculators and overleveraged buyers. Canadian respondents to the survey
% k. \8 a; [! t5 jremain positive about sidestepping any serious impacts of this possible US
2 U: w( p8 T, G% f5 ccorrection. Close to 36% view their prospects for profitability in 2008 to be
# h; U% s" J. `" D7 H: m M! M8 Avery good and a further 22.4% say they're excellent.
' t+ q8 N: q# a b The strongest areas of real estate business activity for Canadian
( N& Y) \( \4 O% Jrespondents is predicted to be within real estate services, followed by2 D/ r3 `2 w* Q. b/ T- }
commercial/multifamily development and homebuilding/residential land- J7 P) h6 P1 Z: J5 m
development. All property sectors share positive prospects across the country
7 q- A7 x& f8 g" E4 ^especially industrial and retail with respondents, on average, stating
- P G3 k5 W0 {3 q# o/ @development prospects are expected to be modestly good to good. The
& ~0 Z) x2 b; D* d; eresidential for-sale market is also expected to fair well, but might need to
8 P+ o, f& N k1 r) B9 m7 ^take a breather as homebuilders cannot keep up with the current pace and" q. z6 u- @9 X. o- \7 d
single-family housing looks overpriced.$ r) {# t$ k) F; O
Office stock is seeing limited inventories and dated product fill up with
, T$ u/ m& U, o3 k0 T) z. Mtenants. Except for Montreal, where office vacancies are nearing 9%. Canadian
$ s; f+ [, m' n0 fmetropolitan areas boast below 5% vacancies, and rents have room to push7 D1 B# o5 W% G' | Z; e4 n
higher. The survey is also showing that costs and land scarcity is limiting
4 h8 c& o; g3 l. O4 u. `, Q3 Tnew development. Hotel investment and development prospects are modestly good," L# R- B" W9 ]
and most respondents rate this sector either a buy or a hold. Rental
Y( u8 Q$ f8 l4 ?) @apartments are doing well in major cities with high immigration flows. Primary
! Q5 j9 C i, x Q3 v# Pwestern cities - Vancouver, Calgary, and Edmonton - are veering toward housing
1 P: i. S6 a, L' G9 m1 s7 P7 Q' x' qshortages as workers, attracted by a plethora of well-paying jobs, pour into, x5 H' z% ]$ W2 Z- x/ j6 s
the energy zone. Apartment occupancies are soaring in these areas. Development B( H7 ~1 f2 H e8 ?5 U7 y9 v$ Y
in other regions remains difficult because of costs and land scarcity.
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7 j, C9 W2 e1 Y9 f" G" k% R7 Y; R# ? Canadian Markets to Watch8 g. r) O+ o+ p* \8 I, M1 g4 z
, M" L6 a, Q. V The report comments on how Canadians like to live and work in central3 D! m; j+ A7 l: `
cities, as long as they can afford it. If housing is too pricey in 24-hour
, n+ S: l. t2 k" g2 X' sneighbourhoods, people move to inner-ring suburbs or beyond and commute back
& w s" z4 s. y/ d5 P! linto the cores. Investors, especially the institutions, are concentrated in1 @+ A' j6 \. W- u( C. @
downtown areas too. Planners and developers focus on infill and more vertical. n/ x y9 }2 C* K: i0 i9 P) ]. j
projects, which reinforce the urban cores. The hot-growth energy cities out
5 ^/ A! d, Q3 e3 E6 X' e9 a- Nwest - Calgary and Edmonton - score the highest ratings for investment
y& V. y! v! G: Y1 Xprospects, development, and for-sale housing, although it is not certain
K6 S% e% W( w; T" Bwhether the recent announcements on royalties will have any effect on this.* C6 N R& f; y, C) h0 _5 s2 ]
Toronto, Canada's premier global pathway city, and Vancouver also have high
+ x) P F ~$ G0 c2 d$ Jratings. Ottawa and Montreal follow, with Halifax lagging.
0 ?4 G: M9 m" W! P y$ o3 C0 d
5 X0 D8 n, b* j: c8 s! l Calgary/Edmonton o# B; o- F" m
3 r8 u1 H6 y3 F, b9 b Calgary is the Canada's "resource" capital and North America's number-one
a2 K/ q$ n \: k3 @boomtown. Survey respondents foresee strong buys for all sectors: 53.5% give a
3 H& c7 t4 D3 `1 q' v: v& xbuy recommendation for Hotel Property, 52.8% for Industrial/Distribution,
9 s# m( f; z( v48.1% for Retail and Apartment Residential and 44.6% for Office Property.
2 T% L& s; G5 R9 I: y7 Z5 HFurthermore, on average the majority of respondents see Calgary For-Sale N% T6 {3 H. r! |' S3 }
Homebuilding prospects as very good. Edmonton is closely mimicking the
- v3 R; W9 U/ U5 J0 w& `( i) PCalgary-style growth wave and as long as demand for energy resources stays
' X% \- K" ^0 T" x- I/ ?$ y2 h! jstrong, this market will continue to do well.( [ j# \) M, F! U- k# M, d2 u
& p- t; `# k7 I- g Vancouver M# E9 ?& y9 h- I
$ g, i2 C7 b+ q: P# b
Vancouver's diversified economy is roaring, the mining industry is
" ~/ b: p" W$ o$ Nbooming and the city provides a large port and a high-tech center. Outrageous
* J' w" G4 n3 }' hreal estate prices frustrate homebuyers and commercial investors and the# u( J2 O( j* A8 U% M9 G) h% F
market is extremely hard to crack. The 2010 Winter Olympic Games is also a! a1 s% d/ F* t( i# K3 m
growth driver and accordingly 44.7% of respondents give Vancouver a buy2 Q0 c. T! q2 H* c: O8 e
recommendation for Hotel Property. A further 43.5% give a buy Retail, 41.3%, d1 Z/ T9 K6 _& l! R
for Industrial/Distribution and 36.7% for Office Property followed by 34.1%8 X4 W$ i- B6 [" N, m2 t# }8 ^
for Apartment Residential property. Vancouver also ranks in the good to very
5 a1 y0 |0 Y- V0 u2 wgood mark for for-sale homebuilding prospects.
, G. |, m2 h! }$ v# }+ {! ]# D" N, F/ k) h' b" M" H/ k" ^
Toronto9 ~/ s' r4 n- f4 q0 a$ M% |, m8 N
/ K* m) e6 ?7 w: e/ J
Toronto ranks as a major global pathway destination, 24-hour city, and
1 C/ Q5 A3 A* W% c1 V+ Qmanufacturing hub. Compared with other national financial centers, the city is" p& G o0 u# [9 u) P
relatively inexpensive. However, the rising loonie is hurting manufacturing
" { {. d: y9 r; p- h5 Xindustries, and clouds over the US economy threaten to stall out momentum.
$ a; a. p- T) d- Z+ x' gThree new office towers are under construction, adding 3 million new square
' N5 [8 G& J/ N% Q* A8 d2 o4 lfeet of office space. Notably, Office (49.1%), Industrial (46.2%) and e: R% R. F( ?% V9 B3 u- R5 N
Apartments (40.8%) are given solid buys.
/ l4 }: P( f* ?2 U6 h. }1 ^# ^8 k( W4 Y' Y; C
Montreal. P$ l6 I# _' a
( F. D, G- J* V
Montreal continues to face concerns about market stability and overall
( S+ C+ t7 s- e- E- @- [* xgrowth prospects as major companies no longer choose it as a place to set up% h. s: ^; Z/ c4 w0 ]0 o ]$ c" N
shop. But, plenty of government offices fill space. Of the larger cities in
6 y# f5 K) X! w1 Y! D6 KCanada, Montreal ranks lowest as a "buy" recommendation in all real estate
5 p v5 Q) l& e5 Z, wsectors. However, respondents generally rated all Montreal real estate sectors
4 m4 i) |8 `% Y, lhigher as a "hold" recommendation.9 R4 N" n( k) [- \% n# ~
7 G2 n$ ?! F, \$ [ The report notes that best bets for investors for the coming years
! I5 z4 V6 Q: {6 c, ?7 @- ~: Jinclude a focus on all property sectors in the high-growth western energy
4 D2 O0 i! T# n4 W7 e+ qmarkets, hold on central business district office space, develop infill condos
% l% Z) G+ |/ r# R; G) Qnear subways stops in Toronto, buy infill sites wherever you can and invest; F- s; Z# E" E; f# H1 T1 g" C
overseas. Potter concludes, "Domestic opportunities are too limited at current
9 F+ H2 a) K" _( ]% gprices."
' q: R6 v a: k. O3 M0 b8 O" r A copy of Emerging Trends in Real Estate(R) 2008 is available at% |5 f' N; `( J% l* J) Q9 ?4 w( ?
www.uli.org or www.pwc.com/imre.
, ~2 F8 P" a: C
, Q" N0 I7 M' G8 h' C. H! C About PricewaterhouseCoopers* r4 _6 W+ G; }$ K: I
" Q3 O) @0 I' f7 K* ~5 X PricewaterhouseCoopers (www.pwc.com) provides industry-focused assurance,
$ ~4 ?7 X) {9 X# H: Z' Btax and advisory services to build public trust and enhance value for its
, R/ F; x% C% Z4 Qclients and their stakeholders. More than 140,000 people in 149 countries
5 A+ N9 z5 L. c3 \2 [1 racross our network share their thinking, experience and solutions to develop
# I9 I# W$ K+ J. V# ^2 B' ?fresh perspectives and practical advice. Now celebrating 100 years of% j# D6 p$ y8 q2 x
excellence in Canada, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP (www.pwc.com/ca) and its
* l# M0 k" p; Q; E% Vrelated entities have more than 5,200 partners and staff in offices across the- v7 }1 ^* }4 ~- d! Y- w
country.
7 Q. n& e1 ~- }( p' d "PricewaterhouseCoopers" refers to PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, an Ontario
0 ~4 F$ V- l$ q% O: W7 y0 Hlimited liability partnership, or, as the context requires, the
. \. |) V. k) x* d: q _PricewaterhouseCoopers global network or other member firms of the network,
& A) }0 Y" Q7 |6 F' p% z; Xeach of which is a separate and independent legal entity.7 U7 ?$ o3 d! @9 G9 O0 {+ H: D
9 X- `/ o. O: i% l
About the Urban Land Institute
8 N+ ~% X# g7 L. D O
6 m% B$ [5 X3 h0 h( q) c: L The Urban Land Institute (www.uli.org) is a nonprofit education and9 w( K# Y# P/ P' Y/ \+ N
research institute supported by its members. Its mission is to provide8 u& o7 {8 `# C$ v& n1 t
leadership in the responsible use of land and in sustaining and creating
7 Q, Q+ ? C0 qthriving communities worldwide. Established in 1936, the Institute has more
$ i5 H, {& P% gthan 38,000 members representing all aspects of land use and development. B: T$ |: T- B8 t) x& A
disciplines.7 _% l/ ]0 s/ `' p' M5 f4 v
The Urban Land Institute is an active and growing organization in Canada.6 P, `* F9 Q. Q8 e2 m
With nearly 700 members across the country, Canada's first ULI District
0 [; o: t5 S* B: f }2 c! `Council was established in Toronto in 2005 and a second District Council is
2 {2 {+ [: q+ z3 y! V$ bnow being formed in British Columbia. The Toronto District Council will be& E) F0 ?. s3 _# P2 s7 q. l
hosting a special event on Emerging Trends in Real Estate on November 20th, m; ^3 z: Z. y) m3 }
2007, featuring Jonathan Miller, the principal author of the report, Blake/ K: V8 _- R9 C P# D4 ~* j" l
Hutcheson, President of CB Richard Ellis Canada Ltd., and George Carras,( v e) j" x6 ~; x" j, P' ?
President of RealNet Canada Inc. For more information on this event, please
! d6 \' d4 h# { B9 s7 w, g; gcall the Toronto District Council Coordinator at (647) 258-0017, or look on. l4 s" v2 D( e/ O0 H- G
the web at www.uli.org/events/index.cfm?id=3066.
3 B+ U( v4 n$ W0 H9 W& y0 G3 G* {2 r) k- B% m7 F$ s9 M
b9 o- W# t/ M# @- g; ~7 F, x6 W# ?- U- ~1 \: ~3 X' w! K4 ?
For further information: Carolyn Forest, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP,
! ?# R9 v! y" d z; F# Z3 j7 ]2 U(416) 814-5730, carolyn.forest@ca.pwc.com0 R- N+ `+ c! v0 y1 L
http://www.newswire.ca/en/releas ... r2007/05/c4080.html
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