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Attention Real Estate Reporters:
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7 `: ?2 e% V4 s, W. C% WDespite US housing woes Canadian real estate remains upbeat . S0 m/ m3 H6 U
TORONTO, Nov. 5 /CNW/ - Leading real estate experts are predicting the US
- O" b. s5 z. Y7 a5 [2 gcommercial real estate market will slow in 2008 and follow a similar pattern
* j! i) H5 q4 l% qas the current residential market. However, according to the annual Emerging
/ Q8 E9 L8 Q$ B6 ETrends in Real Estate 2008 report, released by PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC)# i$ C+ l: ~7 n- \
and the Urban Land Institute (ULI), their Canadian counterparts are much more
1 A$ G j) d! W( g$ tupbeat.
3 }# Z& d% G( l) }0 o! b7 K( W6 W Now in its 29th year, Emerging Trends is the oldest, most highly regarded9 _7 x% W% ?+ z2 Y6 ]5 H+ `
annual industry outlook for the real estate industry. The report reflects% q3 q1 R3 n+ Y4 L* y9 p7 B7 D L# v
interviews with and surveys of more than 600 of the industry's leading real# H7 R% Y& q3 t" S
estate experts, including investors, developers, property company
% X! X0 C! {6 c8 Yrepresentatives, lenders, brokers and consultants in both Canada and the US.& x( p! r n% U: d( z
Other versions of this report are conducted in countries around the world9 ~" f: r% m3 Q) D* c& ?
including Asia Pacific and Europe.
+ U8 W" ]5 A/ x- p5 [( A( A! b# D According to Chris Potter, PwC partner and leader of the firm's Canadian: `+ U6 I0 n( K& a9 N5 `( s
Real Estate Tax practice, Canada benefits from a more conservative investment, }* T+ f9 e9 }0 o
environment than the US. "In Canada, institution-dominated markets appear to( d2 P: W3 Q3 V7 K0 _, S, E3 k
be avoiding 'transaction mania', but real estate values have reached record
" f0 Y0 E' G, b8 F$ shighs and a strong economy has accelerated tenant demand for space."
' e& W) O7 Q: m+ _ According to American respondents, a healthy correction south of the$ s; S# q0 U" t) r
border will likely bypass long-term investors but penalize late-to-the-game
0 H& _& W$ x0 i* o& Bspeculators and overleveraged buyers. Canadian respondents to the survey
i1 n1 u8 d% fremain positive about sidestepping any serious impacts of this possible US# p1 x1 p" r' R% P: H) A5 l
correction. Close to 36% view their prospects for profitability in 2008 to be
S5 W3 y! o+ k W& W9 _8 k' Xvery good and a further 22.4% say they're excellent.' U- ^) E; {. T: L( t
The strongest areas of real estate business activity for Canadian& N x2 B. u# O" |
respondents is predicted to be within real estate services, followed by
' Y( ~; z5 B. W8 J) @4 Jcommercial/multifamily development and homebuilding/residential land
7 S4 O$ Q; H9 _6 Sdevelopment. All property sectors share positive prospects across the country! ~9 i. }/ G T
especially industrial and retail with respondents, on average, stating5 s1 H% \. O( J5 p# n) j7 d: T
development prospects are expected to be modestly good to good. The
8 I" ^0 h- o5 M8 A1 Y. f$ t& [" aresidential for-sale market is also expected to fair well, but might need to6 B: T0 h% b4 r0 L# E" V; ]7 d
take a breather as homebuilders cannot keep up with the current pace and
% _( |1 {7 P$ D* nsingle-family housing looks overpriced.. Y8 Q- z" g9 i+ g; h! n
Office stock is seeing limited inventories and dated product fill up with. S1 v6 M1 M5 y+ G7 f: u; E
tenants. Except for Montreal, where office vacancies are nearing 9%. Canadian* ^. a% a+ s4 a3 X3 V
metropolitan areas boast below 5% vacancies, and rents have room to push/ c T3 F; U W
higher. The survey is also showing that costs and land scarcity is limiting# w, @) `& F# x+ l+ V) A; P! h
new development. Hotel investment and development prospects are modestly good,
$ E2 i+ u4 X. [. y0 Q5 Xand most respondents rate this sector either a buy or a hold. Rental. S! V1 h# i2 w/ J
apartments are doing well in major cities with high immigration flows. Primary
`. A0 w- v; p% swestern cities - Vancouver, Calgary, and Edmonton - are veering toward housing: p4 q9 D- d. q, Y- J
shortages as workers, attracted by a plethora of well-paying jobs, pour into
/ `- P) L6 `; S4 n8 h& _the energy zone. Apartment occupancies are soaring in these areas. Development) ^2 J; z$ p/ ~1 N" H$ g- ?0 \
in other regions remains difficult because of costs and land scarcity.
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Canadian Markets to Watch
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: f8 M4 R) a4 [% G The report comments on how Canadians like to live and work in central7 x9 {& k3 @0 k7 W' ~5 W
cities, as long as they can afford it. If housing is too pricey in 24-hour
( O$ q9 k V% a) fneighbourhoods, people move to inner-ring suburbs or beyond and commute back& [7 j) U/ y7 H" V/ p
into the cores. Investors, especially the institutions, are concentrated in
& v, P% f7 A( @( j, t( e1 R8 g8 qdowntown areas too. Planners and developers focus on infill and more vertical n$ K' G ^% d! \
projects, which reinforce the urban cores. The hot-growth energy cities out3 N ^ l0 E8 L; j% r0 y. S
west - Calgary and Edmonton - score the highest ratings for investment- s; v3 L# e/ {; M& K0 O
prospects, development, and for-sale housing, although it is not certain
2 x0 Z- |/ l& ?+ \6 W/ H9 }whether the recent announcements on royalties will have any effect on this.
2 | @3 [9 q5 ^8 S0 h% }Toronto, Canada's premier global pathway city, and Vancouver also have high4 G' \+ y2 d) k6 v, S
ratings. Ottawa and Montreal follow, with Halifax lagging.
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+ m6 ~' @# k; J: W0 S x Calgary/Edmonton
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Calgary is the Canada's "resource" capital and North America's number-one
; V: d: b, K0 B3 L9 A9 b$ `$ eboomtown. Survey respondents foresee strong buys for all sectors: 53.5% give a! `0 D7 n* M+ Z. v6 ^( u
buy recommendation for Hotel Property, 52.8% for Industrial/Distribution,5 w. Y1 u3 Z r! q. X* \% i3 \
48.1% for Retail and Apartment Residential and 44.6% for Office Property.
. `: J* }2 z" `' r8 N# iFurthermore, on average the majority of respondents see Calgary For-Sale
9 ?7 A& b+ w: l" a* F, F' e) ]Homebuilding prospects as very good. Edmonton is closely mimicking the
& b8 I. C5 L. XCalgary-style growth wave and as long as demand for energy resources stays* n8 U) S# D1 V# z- S4 x$ |
strong, this market will continue to do well.: S: ?+ P0 b, W
3 X% ]$ A; A2 N' A3 Y Vancouver
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! ?1 p. D2 N$ _9 ]9 O8 d; v! [ Vancouver's diversified economy is roaring, the mining industry is
. g1 ^0 s5 c6 x/ s4 [' G- A9 [booming and the city provides a large port and a high-tech center. Outrageous
. Z! L- b2 k, greal estate prices frustrate homebuyers and commercial investors and the
; O7 D: G8 c9 a* a) ?$ _2 Zmarket is extremely hard to crack. The 2010 Winter Olympic Games is also a8 J+ A W. @# C
growth driver and accordingly 44.7% of respondents give Vancouver a buy
6 b" }* Z& @+ ?& m( ~- F! Vrecommendation for Hotel Property. A further 43.5% give a buy Retail, 41.3%
* e8 M8 r0 t/ j/ q# Qfor Industrial/Distribution and 36.7% for Office Property followed by 34.1%
# C& d7 z, S6 s) ^/ wfor Apartment Residential property. Vancouver also ranks in the good to very
) e1 H ^% f$ s" S dgood mark for for-sale homebuilding prospects.
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Toronto
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Toronto ranks as a major global pathway destination, 24-hour city, and
' H( {! V L( E7 Xmanufacturing hub. Compared with other national financial centers, the city is
! p. q1 c3 n4 e2 orelatively inexpensive. However, the rising loonie is hurting manufacturing! w3 f V5 Q) S" A' r
industries, and clouds over the US economy threaten to stall out momentum.
1 p$ [6 [4 A- ?. V" pThree new office towers are under construction, adding 3 million new square
$ }6 T. F% }& \' M( S& O. u' |/ ?8 rfeet of office space. Notably, Office (49.1%), Industrial (46.2%) and
( [9 `% V& o3 a0 _2 xApartments (40.8%) are given solid buys.
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, S' S6 ^6 b& a* ~6 s0 \ Montreal
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Montreal continues to face concerns about market stability and overall
/ C$ ?! n Q+ q# r( v0 p- w' Vgrowth prospects as major companies no longer choose it as a place to set up
m# X! l8 c6 kshop. But, plenty of government offices fill space. Of the larger cities in- L% W% \% t( O6 ]
Canada, Montreal ranks lowest as a "buy" recommendation in all real estate0 K2 A8 b: }5 @; }' D
sectors. However, respondents generally rated all Montreal real estate sectors7 |+ l& y% J, G! i9 D' {4 v; d
higher as a "hold" recommendation.) A+ o( [) v3 M% W: I6 J
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The report notes that best bets for investors for the coming years
- G- \, K1 N1 v) T& Ainclude a focus on all property sectors in the high-growth western energy
1 ] X5 F* ^0 a. {: Fmarkets, hold on central business district office space, develop infill condos
4 I4 E* c, e6 a+ y) `) xnear subways stops in Toronto, buy infill sites wherever you can and invest: R( C6 k5 D9 q' C# A2 D2 t! _
overseas. Potter concludes, "Domestic opportunities are too limited at current4 b$ G9 o i i" J( C- R& y
prices."
/ @$ b# X4 ^0 M3 Y! u* E2 d: J A copy of Emerging Trends in Real Estate(R) 2008 is available at: @* L9 e1 G% ~. }# G4 @6 C! e
www.uli.org or www.pwc.com/imre.
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& q& I! E) N- U( ? About PricewaterhouseCoopers
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5 G( d, `( @4 k$ X% `) F7 k PricewaterhouseCoopers (www.pwc.com) provides industry-focused assurance, H/ X0 C8 S" @2 z" s# g; `
tax and advisory services to build public trust and enhance value for its2 B! h- t6 t$ \" x* @
clients and their stakeholders. More than 140,000 people in 149 countries4 T! Z0 E* ~) l9 j! u& A% ?
across our network share their thinking, experience and solutions to develop
/ M# Y" s2 q% H" ^2 J* ~4 p% Wfresh perspectives and practical advice. Now celebrating 100 years of( S% s2 f% p; k3 u0 i1 H- Y' i
excellence in Canada, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP (www.pwc.com/ca) and its/ s2 t) |; }9 |7 W- x3 L
related entities have more than 5,200 partners and staff in offices across the) y- l! q) ]) q
country.
5 {& u' `; {" b2 X/ v2 f6 R0 E "PricewaterhouseCoopers" refers to PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, an Ontario
- ?* z) f2 K. q' g. tlimited liability partnership, or, as the context requires, the
" m/ P* o5 x e4 p: E$ e! _PricewaterhouseCoopers global network or other member firms of the network,
: ]' g+ |0 u3 ~, }each of which is a separate and independent legal entity.
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About the Urban Land Institute
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1 p8 W6 l3 m0 z5 V The Urban Land Institute (www.uli.org) is a nonprofit education and% P' r; ]6 c6 m! r; p
research institute supported by its members. Its mission is to provide' u8 `" B( y; K6 J" P7 j
leadership in the responsible use of land and in sustaining and creating
& F- L u. H. r; @; g9 A+ y: jthriving communities worldwide. Established in 1936, the Institute has more$ b# {9 S8 G4 o7 y4 u
than 38,000 members representing all aspects of land use and development5 |0 e+ q( w* n0 B% o& v$ ?
disciplines.
# G% q) \+ d, s9 A7 @+ \ The Urban Land Institute is an active and growing organization in Canada.4 D1 K9 Z' ^3 F6 C" Z+ @% `
With nearly 700 members across the country, Canada's first ULI District, e7 O% g6 @$ ]2 Z. N/ o1 _
Council was established in Toronto in 2005 and a second District Council is! {% y K6 b( `
now being formed in British Columbia. The Toronto District Council will be |9 G/ }' u3 h" `1 ?# x/ i
hosting a special event on Emerging Trends in Real Estate on November 20th,
+ r$ f* Z ~5 f& d, P5 T2 L2007, featuring Jonathan Miller, the principal author of the report, Blake# p# V) l5 f6 r8 ]
Hutcheson, President of CB Richard Ellis Canada Ltd., and George Carras,: T- _$ C& d0 ]8 o" U7 K& h; M
President of RealNet Canada Inc. For more information on this event, please% x! K; g$ S! _! X0 M/ q
call the Toronto District Council Coordinator at (647) 258-0017, or look on7 ]: i( E, M' N4 X! s% k4 B# ~
the web at www.uli.org/events/index.cfm?id=3066.8 \5 |, W6 b8 l/ g3 i8 [+ C4 c1 J
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For further information: Carolyn Forest, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP," N+ p* Y3 e! j* f3 q0 [! a
(416) 814-5730, carolyn.forest@ca.pwc.com U6 e! y5 b/ M1 h7 Y0 w0 Z
http://www.newswire.ca/en/releas ... r2007/05/c4080.html. Z6 G) x1 V+ g* n
1 q2 M- C( g n5 ] o[ 本帖最后由 QWE321 于 2007-11-13 09:08 编辑 ] |
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