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Attention Real Estate Reporters:
9 {& X: r/ R" l* ^6 O( Z) k( ^2 a5 |# G0 V; R
Despite US housing woes Canadian real estate remains upbeat
0 X7 e/ c% G8 M( n) a4 Z! ~0 x: a! G TORONTO, Nov. 5 /CNW/ - Leading real estate experts are predicting the US
4 W- D& t: y- P6 tcommercial real estate market will slow in 2008 and follow a similar pattern
T( W8 N [, J% @& Z% vas the current residential market. However, according to the annual Emerging6 ]# H) V) x" o
Trends in Real Estate 2008 report, released by PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC)
) o1 v) w6 B& ~2 E- X4 dand the Urban Land Institute (ULI), their Canadian counterparts are much more6 i# B3 b. m( ^; O! x5 y. }
upbeat.
- C3 X1 r+ Q" o7 q/ U# n Now in its 29th year, Emerging Trends is the oldest, most highly regarded- n% C- h' y0 Z! T. [
annual industry outlook for the real estate industry. The report reflects
" b* J$ @ c: ^% Y" [1 e: ]4 E/ Zinterviews with and surveys of more than 600 of the industry's leading real
r0 t) q1 x2 R/ z# d- F% {1 iestate experts, including investors, developers, property company
8 [! u- t- t9 b5 T; K2 Hrepresentatives, lenders, brokers and consultants in both Canada and the US.7 `$ W8 J* |5 _% p! s
Other versions of this report are conducted in countries around the world
# e" S; T. D( p# ^( u) {5 t* cincluding Asia Pacific and Europe.5 l- S3 G, {+ b2 Y$ k8 n- B
According to Chris Potter, PwC partner and leader of the firm's Canadian
& Q( [! u5 P' v7 u' f3 _% A5 P) V1 sReal Estate Tax practice, Canada benefits from a more conservative investment
4 c5 s7 _! d4 q- Fenvironment than the US. "In Canada, institution-dominated markets appear to
, \1 W) f8 L9 P% f; _( m5 wbe avoiding 'transaction mania', but real estate values have reached record
6 z; F) t& o- `9 g( B' y7 }+ f6 J. bhighs and a strong economy has accelerated tenant demand for space."
7 J# U, C V9 P8 v According to American respondents, a healthy correction south of the
% ~+ d0 Z6 y1 C- xborder will likely bypass long-term investors but penalize late-to-the-game
4 E3 G8 \5 s2 Bspeculators and overleveraged buyers. Canadian respondents to the survey
. j3 H5 R6 H5 `remain positive about sidestepping any serious impacts of this possible US
/ B6 ^3 L9 v- Y! }8 x4 L' E+ ocorrection. Close to 36% view their prospects for profitability in 2008 to be
8 |- q, Q# Q- l+ f1 {very good and a further 22.4% say they're excellent.
/ E: t0 g! P1 @8 ~- E, n, { The strongest areas of real estate business activity for Canadian/ L/ ?) @% D) _, x
respondents is predicted to be within real estate services, followed by
1 }7 w1 k- q9 ]commercial/multifamily development and homebuilding/residential land! L+ n" P/ N. ?% X' I1 m% A4 }& l
development. All property sectors share positive prospects across the country
4 Y; w# w/ o! k% _especially industrial and retail with respondents, on average, stating6 ?1 P8 i% Z- I T
development prospects are expected to be modestly good to good. The% g* ]5 w3 j5 P) b' ]# \7 G
residential for-sale market is also expected to fair well, but might need to
' ^, `) j, ~' o4 {, ftake a breather as homebuilders cannot keep up with the current pace and. T# @6 G1 `7 A3 B- `; b/ K' q
single-family housing looks overpriced.
! ?! p- |0 Q' E1 |- j7 L' l: @* Y Office stock is seeing limited inventories and dated product fill up with
6 E# x6 q4 y7 |+ n' k) B) dtenants. Except for Montreal, where office vacancies are nearing 9%. Canadian/ q8 D7 G* G' W
metropolitan areas boast below 5% vacancies, and rents have room to push/ C# Z6 ~7 G. y9 U3 Q4 L4 c
higher. The survey is also showing that costs and land scarcity is limiting8 e5 {7 C$ w% [' I9 ~ G& x" `: ^
new development. Hotel investment and development prospects are modestly good,
, S r5 u4 N) _ xand most respondents rate this sector either a buy or a hold. Rental
1 w. E& X: ?% s j4 g! Gapartments are doing well in major cities with high immigration flows. Primary
& s. p# [2 P0 s# r+ b( Wwestern cities - Vancouver, Calgary, and Edmonton - are veering toward housing
6 D' z# }, j! ^shortages as workers, attracted by a plethora of well-paying jobs, pour into5 D+ s# {- b8 m
the energy zone. Apartment occupancies are soaring in these areas. Development/ x/ `( G4 ^' P: W$ y, b
in other regions remains difficult because of costs and land scarcity.3 k5 P3 N# z/ G6 i. l
; h8 {9 ~) I7 g: N) }% \$ m Canadian Markets to Watch8 I1 n/ d% P/ w, `
$ I* U* P% K! [# A7 R
The report comments on how Canadians like to live and work in central8 ~0 e. z$ x* e6 N
cities, as long as they can afford it. If housing is too pricey in 24-hour+ q! f, U6 I* ?
neighbourhoods, people move to inner-ring suburbs or beyond and commute back
W! y3 R& y4 _2 g9 K* N! V& T0 g6 jinto the cores. Investors, especially the institutions, are concentrated in
. C1 ^, c- B1 ~: m# f; J4 odowntown areas too. Planners and developers focus on infill and more vertical9 q# x0 z" E$ s* ~0 r$ B6 ~1 r
projects, which reinforce the urban cores. The hot-growth energy cities out
1 Z, v" Z' Y% @; q8 D3 _" g! ~5 mwest - Calgary and Edmonton - score the highest ratings for investment- ?1 P) [# d0 U( J
prospects, development, and for-sale housing, although it is not certain
+ M2 T. \0 u$ e) N) U, Owhether the recent announcements on royalties will have any effect on this.
2 Q" w4 L- B3 u+ JToronto, Canada's premier global pathway city, and Vancouver also have high
. z: z& ^- e/ H- X8 x' mratings. Ottawa and Montreal follow, with Halifax lagging./ `$ B- g3 g0 i
* }! V$ P8 n4 ?; u: s# |" k I
Calgary/Edmonton
5 Z" i U5 s; D2 z( G
" u# Y: n7 Q+ Z) x Calgary is the Canada's "resource" capital and North America's number-one8 h1 j8 h) z7 ]& L
boomtown. Survey respondents foresee strong buys for all sectors: 53.5% give a
% @, ]3 D8 U5 O& fbuy recommendation for Hotel Property, 52.8% for Industrial/Distribution,4 Y% d6 }" m" s- W. b8 P
48.1% for Retail and Apartment Residential and 44.6% for Office Property.4 V! y7 ~& M2 f. g4 F& H
Furthermore, on average the majority of respondents see Calgary For-Sale! V6 r. D3 o! H: k
Homebuilding prospects as very good. Edmonton is closely mimicking the5 d8 w. T) P; q4 t. Q
Calgary-style growth wave and as long as demand for energy resources stays, i1 D9 L! V$ c" j% b1 r4 p
strong, this market will continue to do well.4 P% b" ~0 t3 z' \" r/ }9 y: {( T
! _2 v2 s1 ?3 r8 A4 B* k
Vancouver; I! b5 y/ K7 R1 F
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Vancouver's diversified economy is roaring, the mining industry is# c& N1 b ]- E2 C
booming and the city provides a large port and a high-tech center. Outrageous
b$ T$ a; Q M% ^: Hreal estate prices frustrate homebuyers and commercial investors and the
. ?5 {8 v( n+ cmarket is extremely hard to crack. The 2010 Winter Olympic Games is also a4 u3 C, @4 z' t. o. y+ Y# ]/ \
growth driver and accordingly 44.7% of respondents give Vancouver a buy
/ _7 w0 D {" R5 M4 |recommendation for Hotel Property. A further 43.5% give a buy Retail, 41.3%$ e9 r! ~2 ]2 d' s+ h* Z
for Industrial/Distribution and 36.7% for Office Property followed by 34.1%
, y5 o8 L, Y2 I+ G- Afor Apartment Residential property. Vancouver also ranks in the good to very/ |% Z% G# L; P; N' Q
good mark for for-sale homebuilding prospects.- Y* p- `2 I" y, t) Y2 R2 r
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Toronto1 T/ Z& u8 a! t0 c" f* H3 C
' _( D0 t: [: J6 O" z7 ^" H$ A$ B C Toronto ranks as a major global pathway destination, 24-hour city, and
! ?" n3 v+ o1 {" ^5 smanufacturing hub. Compared with other national financial centers, the city is6 {) ]; b4 c' n/ U: |" @* b0 V
relatively inexpensive. However, the rising loonie is hurting manufacturing% Q: }. |; q5 p5 a
industries, and clouds over the US economy threaten to stall out momentum.
6 n" G+ V0 L. {# m( D9 J! gThree new office towers are under construction, adding 3 million new square
' u- U u2 p' k+ U: _" d- ]feet of office space. Notably, Office (49.1%), Industrial (46.2%) and$ }8 m( _$ u6 h& t8 x
Apartments (40.8%) are given solid buys.
. r9 D1 f3 H4 k6 y: P$ R h
4 q$ N* ]3 s9 i6 h# d- O Montreal
2 D8 f" X! R+ S# U: o
/ k5 [) i. A! d- R9 T- J Montreal continues to face concerns about market stability and overall+ u% }) Q) \ k2 T0 K
growth prospects as major companies no longer choose it as a place to set up
& e/ {7 J# Q" x7 O+ o+ C' oshop. But, plenty of government offices fill space. Of the larger cities in
5 Q+ N+ T- _3 N& G1 RCanada, Montreal ranks lowest as a "buy" recommendation in all real estate; U; n: Z& C; K' z
sectors. However, respondents generally rated all Montreal real estate sectors
# ~# ?/ C3 G5 v* F! [higher as a "hold" recommendation.+ {, q" o* ~. Q& s h
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The report notes that best bets for investors for the coming years' f/ n7 ]1 K' b! i
include a focus on all property sectors in the high-growth western energy
3 k0 B/ ^# X8 Rmarkets, hold on central business district office space, develop infill condos
5 W+ K# p' Y( l6 Y; [# V$ jnear subways stops in Toronto, buy infill sites wherever you can and invest5 Q' e" [) C6 ?& c# l, ^2 q
overseas. Potter concludes, "Domestic opportunities are too limited at current
! l' f' p: F: h3 e d/ ^prices."
, U5 y" y4 r0 Q8 M& z6 T2 H A copy of Emerging Trends in Real Estate(R) 2008 is available at9 ?5 x3 ~0 e$ b
www.uli.org or www.pwc.com/imre.
; ?2 C ?- B: F9 _2 o1 d0 K5 V4 p) s+ V
About PricewaterhouseCoopers8 q1 q! e. {, L* O% f6 L
# G2 `( n9 U% J( V0 E) [ PricewaterhouseCoopers (www.pwc.com) provides industry-focused assurance,0 x! _/ r1 e/ N: D ?! M) V. N
tax and advisory services to build public trust and enhance value for its9 z, Y3 F- u* t8 V4 ]
clients and their stakeholders. More than 140,000 people in 149 countries
# G2 L. d0 m. ^/ f3 R( \across our network share their thinking, experience and solutions to develop3 \/ }+ j7 S. }6 V+ S9 V: ~
fresh perspectives and practical advice. Now celebrating 100 years of/ ~6 v R2 H$ z& A, _/ N; b/ [
excellence in Canada, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP (www.pwc.com/ca) and its
* c& Y1 o( E5 p1 trelated entities have more than 5,200 partners and staff in offices across the4 {; o' N. ^# K) v
country.2 F! R4 z/ P. b# i3 y% J( y1 [3 g) N
"PricewaterhouseCoopers" refers to PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, an Ontario+ z# u, P& c* y* w
limited liability partnership, or, as the context requires, the, a6 o b5 U& {- M' E
PricewaterhouseCoopers global network or other member firms of the network,9 M3 |# w$ q1 K
each of which is a separate and independent legal entity.+ E- W( g: h. @
/ C& Q) N6 b5 y. O' I7 {
About the Urban Land Institute
* G8 a7 h8 W% h! q6 j
3 I" p% Y8 X) l/ Y9 Y" s, x The Urban Land Institute (www.uli.org) is a nonprofit education and
# i! n( P1 V! s+ B" presearch institute supported by its members. Its mission is to provide
" T/ l, ~- M4 Q0 h, V4 r) }leadership in the responsible use of land and in sustaining and creating
/ w! N# x- c8 L A4 d. F2 Bthriving communities worldwide. Established in 1936, the Institute has more
+ n: R6 X# H; B+ B+ J4 Y ]than 38,000 members representing all aspects of land use and development, K6 z, b! l6 s* x: k T7 F
disciplines.
* B) E/ a6 c) G* Z$ m The Urban Land Institute is an active and growing organization in Canada.
* g- O3 S& v! f; c% p6 MWith nearly 700 members across the country, Canada's first ULI District
7 M7 ?+ I# T FCouncil was established in Toronto in 2005 and a second District Council is
8 x" r! l& x( ^9 ]4 [8 j% fnow being formed in British Columbia. The Toronto District Council will be. |7 O5 }' f8 O8 \* _
hosting a special event on Emerging Trends in Real Estate on November 20th,6 D+ _9 T1 E( K! @, P7 Q
2007, featuring Jonathan Miller, the principal author of the report, Blake
8 s, n1 M% H! _5 o+ }( F& M+ FHutcheson, President of CB Richard Ellis Canada Ltd., and George Carras,1 h( P% q0 U9 k" J0 I
President of RealNet Canada Inc. For more information on this event, please
+ F$ N2 c5 x/ [$ H( p, Q% k3 |9 p& `call the Toronto District Council Coordinator at (647) 258-0017, or look on
' ~6 h! u0 f* y0 f1 Pthe web at www.uli.org/events/index.cfm?id=3066.9 X- E3 k$ n( W) o# {
U9 Q, E' y. h- H6 M: G
@ e- [4 k. Z6 o& f( ]! ], @0 ~' C: r( Z4 T5 O3 o
For further information: Carolyn Forest, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP," [. ]2 U! c, ^
(416) 814-5730, carolyn.forest@ca.pwc.com
) K% k3 c, r5 ]2 Y0 Vhttp://www.newswire.ca/en/releas ... r2007/05/c4080.html
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