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Attention Real Estate Reporters:
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1 m* u' t& p1 ^: a6 F8 U( b! MDespite US housing woes Canadian real estate remains upbeat
, B! L( h. q) L TORONTO, Nov. 5 /CNW/ - Leading real estate experts are predicting the US
5 Y- }+ \' `% f5 f7 A2 Vcommercial real estate market will slow in 2008 and follow a similar pattern4 {4 U+ Z9 \8 P( P' f
as the current residential market. However, according to the annual Emerging" e' @) T2 z# O: c
Trends in Real Estate 2008 report, released by PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC)
) W+ J/ ~1 F" D6 ~/ N, Kand the Urban Land Institute (ULI), their Canadian counterparts are much more
% q# Z; M& g ?' w+ [7 Oupbeat./ d5 A& [/ a4 p3 Z+ z4 }
Now in its 29th year, Emerging Trends is the oldest, most highly regarded7 B1 G9 u, c, m' S' e8 Q8 a5 c8 D
annual industry outlook for the real estate industry. The report reflects
0 U( J& V: K1 z1 winterviews with and surveys of more than 600 of the industry's leading real( l) F+ ]# `' X- F+ f; j: R
estate experts, including investors, developers, property company
; a5 i8 K, t- m& v. M# I2 l+ frepresentatives, lenders, brokers and consultants in both Canada and the US.
& J0 z" x8 N# H5 R' Y& WOther versions of this report are conducted in countries around the world, J1 y0 W9 S" m) n
including Asia Pacific and Europe.
; M2 e: I- D% W: ?* y* O; _2 d According to Chris Potter, PwC partner and leader of the firm's Canadian
' B& N6 W1 G7 EReal Estate Tax practice, Canada benefits from a more conservative investment( ~7 W% G7 t4 U
environment than the US. "In Canada, institution-dominated markets appear to
' o0 d" U T. P1 pbe avoiding 'transaction mania', but real estate values have reached record$ R- G, Y$ J5 o, X, U
highs and a strong economy has accelerated tenant demand for space."
3 j. F' ^# C% t: [5 e# U1 t According to American respondents, a healthy correction south of the$ \* A1 Z9 B% O% _0 J
border will likely bypass long-term investors but penalize late-to-the-game
# R/ t7 g$ T+ Z6 ?; Gspeculators and overleveraged buyers. Canadian respondents to the survey
& @- N& l" \' S, ^! Wremain positive about sidestepping any serious impacts of this possible US: {. N% Q; ^4 I5 }( U
correction. Close to 36% view their prospects for profitability in 2008 to be
1 a! ?& H6 V3 ?9 S1 R3 }8 ~5 \ D' Yvery good and a further 22.4% say they're excellent./ F P5 V9 ?! ?4 f! K4 S' h
The strongest areas of real estate business activity for Canadian( u, O4 J# Y* |3 k F
respondents is predicted to be within real estate services, followed by
9 l. H r0 }; t9 i; b! O) `1 Scommercial/multifamily development and homebuilding/residential land, [, F' ^' U5 C0 h9 D6 G& S
development. All property sectors share positive prospects across the country
6 ~& H( n7 O2 lespecially industrial and retail with respondents, on average, stating3 z, v# \ V% A6 i: i
development prospects are expected to be modestly good to good. The
& i1 r* K$ }0 D3 P N+ i; }8 Jresidential for-sale market is also expected to fair well, but might need to
3 j3 O5 ~2 }& s2 dtake a breather as homebuilders cannot keep up with the current pace and& }1 d4 X. m. P1 O, |, \& S7 @
single-family housing looks overpriced.
) O, [, }0 A! l& L( h Office stock is seeing limited inventories and dated product fill up with
! T0 Y& R5 F% Otenants. Except for Montreal, where office vacancies are nearing 9%. Canadian
" B, ?' [4 I" ]* B7 Bmetropolitan areas boast below 5% vacancies, and rents have room to push" x, G7 C+ c: t. l# ]
higher. The survey is also showing that costs and land scarcity is limiting
1 J$ R- {8 _4 r9 t) gnew development. Hotel investment and development prospects are modestly good,
* }* f' m, R* Band most respondents rate this sector either a buy or a hold. Rental
! [+ t- B2 R( Y$ B) @apartments are doing well in major cities with high immigration flows. Primary
5 Z @/ Z. h* Y, L! Ywestern cities - Vancouver, Calgary, and Edmonton - are veering toward housing
' ^- @. E2 N2 d4 i( {1 bshortages as workers, attracted by a plethora of well-paying jobs, pour into
0 I5 K8 u8 [& |/ y6 Jthe energy zone. Apartment occupancies are soaring in these areas. Development# N( m j6 s7 a9 d5 F
in other regions remains difficult because of costs and land scarcity.0 Z. `2 ^/ K6 h" C$ \8 {3 g
2 h9 e$ r9 S. n: Z3 d Canadian Markets to Watch
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The report comments on how Canadians like to live and work in central8 f! I/ ]+ @* q0 J: c
cities, as long as they can afford it. If housing is too pricey in 24-hour p/ L) O* k( R' ?, k- C" ~, G! B& \/ l% }
neighbourhoods, people move to inner-ring suburbs or beyond and commute back; R) E" P4 u- T
into the cores. Investors, especially the institutions, are concentrated in% r {3 r) U, ]- h8 }
downtown areas too. Planners and developers focus on infill and more vertical% ]3 R" r0 j. G. _) U! a1 V
projects, which reinforce the urban cores. The hot-growth energy cities out
# ~. s/ Z U2 q o6 twest - Calgary and Edmonton - score the highest ratings for investment0 ^" }7 [2 x) i2 z
prospects, development, and for-sale housing, although it is not certain& e& c* i% T3 x6 k+ a" R
whether the recent announcements on royalties will have any effect on this.
& I/ g6 K+ o4 Z( J0 lToronto, Canada's premier global pathway city, and Vancouver also have high) Q& |2 `7 d' I# K
ratings. Ottawa and Montreal follow, with Halifax lagging.+ G. [1 s2 V# c9 K) j1 N+ P
" N: `) r3 ~8 s& A! x6 [: W Calgary/Edmonton5 r' I$ F- N$ C2 l6 ?
- ?+ F2 U! V2 N# ^& F Calgary is the Canada's "resource" capital and North America's number-one
4 k' N/ W' Z$ Y" Hboomtown. Survey respondents foresee strong buys for all sectors: 53.5% give a
; c3 u* n" a' O( Y2 lbuy recommendation for Hotel Property, 52.8% for Industrial/Distribution,
7 H& y1 R# a3 t6 a& `+ B48.1% for Retail and Apartment Residential and 44.6% for Office Property.
' B* j8 y8 ^1 p# k- c8 V& NFurthermore, on average the majority of respondents see Calgary For-Sale
8 t4 j2 _. e# v HHomebuilding prospects as very good. Edmonton is closely mimicking the
! L3 P" v, K$ L7 b5 w5 UCalgary-style growth wave and as long as demand for energy resources stays1 _8 V# [! I. I5 ? l& l" K1 M
strong, this market will continue to do well.5 x3 v' L2 l6 U6 W) A
8 _- S$ Y. ]& M$ B! } Vancouver
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Vancouver's diversified economy is roaring, the mining industry is/ D+ y. L1 m) e" a+ X- D- l
booming and the city provides a large port and a high-tech center. Outrageous' C% @6 U* |% e# h" X( p1 v& l
real estate prices frustrate homebuyers and commercial investors and the. U }' T ^: L6 Q9 v, B% G- I1 W/ [
market is extremely hard to crack. The 2010 Winter Olympic Games is also a* l: y1 c9 f* e
growth driver and accordingly 44.7% of respondents give Vancouver a buy) X5 Y/ e/ J+ j4 ^, L" H2 t) L+ l
recommendation for Hotel Property. A further 43.5% give a buy Retail, 41.3%
* |3 n7 C7 e7 u6 Jfor Industrial/Distribution and 36.7% for Office Property followed by 34.1%, F: o: K! `+ w9 `" g) M* i
for Apartment Residential property. Vancouver also ranks in the good to very
+ f# S1 W3 ^8 |/ `good mark for for-sale homebuilding prospects.2 [- u: y9 s8 `) _: u( b
0 T9 }8 K5 `" M1 ~! [1 m Toronto/ q1 B% v* g6 ~; p1 T! K3 n
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Toronto ranks as a major global pathway destination, 24-hour city, and$ g$ ^. L( q* a2 L" V R. o
manufacturing hub. Compared with other national financial centers, the city is
& j( X* Y" w. u, `relatively inexpensive. However, the rising loonie is hurting manufacturing9 d1 O# V- C; c1 [! f$ _) p0 [
industries, and clouds over the US economy threaten to stall out momentum.: N% m% i8 }$ R7 [
Three new office towers are under construction, adding 3 million new square" B* I' _. D* ]6 ?; Q) k, I( x* m
feet of office space. Notably, Office (49.1%), Industrial (46.2%) and, o) h( F3 _9 Y+ Y' k
Apartments (40.8%) are given solid buys.
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- M+ R2 Z$ Y e2 r9 v0 l- H4 M Montreal
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Montreal continues to face concerns about market stability and overall
' U: \/ m, w I. R9 c: Hgrowth prospects as major companies no longer choose it as a place to set up/ X9 ?' o8 U1 i1 ]0 O
shop. But, plenty of government offices fill space. Of the larger cities in4 T4 W6 a) l# h: X2 r q
Canada, Montreal ranks lowest as a "buy" recommendation in all real estate
" x6 p8 V" I+ }( A+ E* L csectors. However, respondents generally rated all Montreal real estate sectors
* l6 [- ~, g/ vhigher as a "hold" recommendation.
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The report notes that best bets for investors for the coming years
7 t6 y/ T j2 F$ `. o/ qinclude a focus on all property sectors in the high-growth western energy
8 H8 u6 I% N/ z k9 }- `4 |markets, hold on central business district office space, develop infill condos
~9 a$ `, A; Q# w& Vnear subways stops in Toronto, buy infill sites wherever you can and invest
7 t! O2 x7 S4 x1 O8 n4 Yoverseas. Potter concludes, "Domestic opportunities are too limited at current, @6 E ]* K E0 M6 q
prices."7 t/ b4 z% t" c; v
A copy of Emerging Trends in Real Estate(R) 2008 is available at, O' X+ _! R( N2 T% q
www.uli.org or www.pwc.com/imre.& |% e1 @ {; p1 T9 r! U2 m" x
1 ?, K, O' ^7 ~# {/ |% H
About PricewaterhouseCoopers
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PricewaterhouseCoopers (www.pwc.com) provides industry-focused assurance,& R( v- f$ f+ S
tax and advisory services to build public trust and enhance value for its
, d6 S; b; h9 wclients and their stakeholders. More than 140,000 people in 149 countries
( L+ a. O+ O* H+ v d% Iacross our network share their thinking, experience and solutions to develop
K8 `6 i- `$ Jfresh perspectives and practical advice. Now celebrating 100 years of
0 o# Y) k5 c+ gexcellence in Canada, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP (www.pwc.com/ca) and its1 Y; P" {3 R# i) l& Y
related entities have more than 5,200 partners and staff in offices across the
' G/ {% A, {$ I: H; s F% o/ W& tcountry.
( M9 L- s/ Z) Q% t% J" Q "PricewaterhouseCoopers" refers to PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, an Ontario
- x: w- v1 s* Ilimited liability partnership, or, as the context requires, the; h2 T( H) l$ @; d% B. @ ^5 Y
PricewaterhouseCoopers global network or other member firms of the network,/ H( N3 j1 U& N+ j+ o, s: Z- _. [
each of which is a separate and independent legal entity.
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About the Urban Land Institute% ~5 w1 C: ?! _. @+ _# t4 K% {$ A
?( J- [+ Y4 F' E The Urban Land Institute (www.uli.org) is a nonprofit education and
* u+ U4 Z; B& k9 C5 |( o: Yresearch institute supported by its members. Its mission is to provide8 `+ r* J' d3 k9 R& F
leadership in the responsible use of land and in sustaining and creating
2 _" x# l6 b) j* A2 d/ c- E0 Lthriving communities worldwide. Established in 1936, the Institute has more
6 K: ~3 j4 \' R6 U4 vthan 38,000 members representing all aspects of land use and development, [9 k! Z4 z1 c& }, b; L
disciplines.& E# i1 A$ ~5 v" P, p; y
The Urban Land Institute is an active and growing organization in Canada.
1 O- w0 ?) S- _$ d) jWith nearly 700 members across the country, Canada's first ULI District
# s/ H; s/ M% }4 T4 KCouncil was established in Toronto in 2005 and a second District Council is
8 Z. _" P1 Y; J3 C) V. znow being formed in British Columbia. The Toronto District Council will be
: L, s* e' E# mhosting a special event on Emerging Trends in Real Estate on November 20th,
( [$ r" L7 r2 A l$ W2007, featuring Jonathan Miller, the principal author of the report, Blake
& G8 j9 D. |8 ]5 }& \' FHutcheson, President of CB Richard Ellis Canada Ltd., and George Carras,5 f* ~. q3 j1 _2 @' R
President of RealNet Canada Inc. For more information on this event, please
# h/ g3 `9 O6 r) w& Y. Kcall the Toronto District Council Coordinator at (647) 258-0017, or look on
. Q; Q9 }7 L" {, \0 ]the web at www.uli.org/events/index.cfm?id=3066.
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For further information: Carolyn Forest, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP,
: X; Z1 h: w5 C5 a1 z: v2 m. Y0 d(416) 814-5730, carolyn.forest@ca.pwc.com
' w9 p" |. U, s0 p2 r- Lhttp://www.newswire.ca/en/releas ... r2007/05/c4080.html5 k$ D5 @1 \3 s/ G9 P! I
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