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Attention Real Estate Reporters: $ t) c2 B; G6 G& z0 s s
% T/ ]+ d% c* ]8 o! \Despite US housing woes Canadian real estate remains upbeat 7 ^0 I/ p! K) j6 C w
TORONTO, Nov. 5 /CNW/ - Leading real estate experts are predicting the US4 r4 z" s2 u9 T4 z1 @7 @
commercial real estate market will slow in 2008 and follow a similar pattern
) U. g8 f; i8 ^as the current residential market. However, according to the annual Emerging
" F: j9 }0 g6 T0 U8 B3 ]Trends in Real Estate 2008 report, released by PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC)
$ L( U; H% B1 [9 W' land the Urban Land Institute (ULI), their Canadian counterparts are much more
8 _2 O$ V, R" I2 Zupbeat.6 U3 J2 t8 s3 Y2 {/ z
Now in its 29th year, Emerging Trends is the oldest, most highly regarded# J3 }: T3 X0 E1 ^. Q) ^9 l
annual industry outlook for the real estate industry. The report reflects6 V8 [2 F: |& `. t9 G/ B
interviews with and surveys of more than 600 of the industry's leading real
; G% S. n5 c3 p$ y8 i+ ~9 B# eestate experts, including investors, developers, property company
6 w# I/ H c5 D8 X$ V$ Krepresentatives, lenders, brokers and consultants in both Canada and the US.2 @; B- w% p# R6 ~2 O. z7 l
Other versions of this report are conducted in countries around the world+ W0 w+ E6 V+ c- c" u1 r: Q4 \
including Asia Pacific and Europe.
0 Y1 S; P* p8 F4 ^- w/ W According to Chris Potter, PwC partner and leader of the firm's Canadian
! p3 F/ b, v% i) N% U( V4 n# S1 rReal Estate Tax practice, Canada benefits from a more conservative investment
1 c/ a/ I+ e7 genvironment than the US. "In Canada, institution-dominated markets appear to0 [" S5 P3 U( E% L' G: o
be avoiding 'transaction mania', but real estate values have reached record
1 Q: `. s2 T- X9 Q; r, dhighs and a strong economy has accelerated tenant demand for space."! E) I' S, h5 c/ \( O
According to American respondents, a healthy correction south of the
7 B. G9 [$ s# H9 eborder will likely bypass long-term investors but penalize late-to-the-game
+ M6 u5 g5 I. S- F7 m. lspeculators and overleveraged buyers. Canadian respondents to the survey
( ?# i1 o7 J- `remain positive about sidestepping any serious impacts of this possible US2 p* | N* I9 o* {6 ^
correction. Close to 36% view their prospects for profitability in 2008 to be
- H d; a: `3 d' l9 nvery good and a further 22.4% say they're excellent.3 u) g. O d& I* ?
The strongest areas of real estate business activity for Canadian( E# x5 c$ B, K, ~! I
respondents is predicted to be within real estate services, followed by
. ^/ I, ~1 P5 u- kcommercial/multifamily development and homebuilding/residential land
) P" W \6 {8 U3 t- E v# ~, Gdevelopment. All property sectors share positive prospects across the country s# c- a+ i3 u8 R3 d& T
especially industrial and retail with respondents, on average, stating
5 \+ |, v: a" `3 Edevelopment prospects are expected to be modestly good to good. The2 d( s& Q8 R0 s( B3 b
residential for-sale market is also expected to fair well, but might need to/ h6 m! ?- Q& b. t% ^
take a breather as homebuilders cannot keep up with the current pace and- F) \" ]) \" o3 C3 }
single-family housing looks overpriced.+ w! H% O6 c& M& a1 r
Office stock is seeing limited inventories and dated product fill up with
M+ e; b2 N X& {8 Ttenants. Except for Montreal, where office vacancies are nearing 9%. Canadian R- N" f% @' @- Y& ?# q: H! B
metropolitan areas boast below 5% vacancies, and rents have room to push
s! L' \+ t$ ?# q8 v" h0 M B3 W ahigher. The survey is also showing that costs and land scarcity is limiting
" _* J$ B/ F0 e J3 W" Lnew development. Hotel investment and development prospects are modestly good,7 b. q* H, e9 U7 Q% K. g
and most respondents rate this sector either a buy or a hold. Rental
! F" @. q7 y: {" H. i; Z% papartments are doing well in major cities with high immigration flows. Primary' S7 o0 `8 w4 ~2 ]' _: d. t) w/ U
western cities - Vancouver, Calgary, and Edmonton - are veering toward housing$ h3 n% s3 ?7 j2 J/ p0 f
shortages as workers, attracted by a plethora of well-paying jobs, pour into
+ B: s5 }6 h# D' o2 ?the energy zone. Apartment occupancies are soaring in these areas. Development2 O7 j# \% S, c1 _9 |
in other regions remains difficult because of costs and land scarcity.( [' L3 H- Q; }" \5 H
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Canadian Markets to Watch3 r9 X6 f+ Y0 w: n* E, {! j& y
/ _! l. |/ u$ s5 [
The report comments on how Canadians like to live and work in central( v: X4 d& e7 b! O" ^
cities, as long as they can afford it. If housing is too pricey in 24-hour3 L! Q( ]8 F N- R5 i- J; J
neighbourhoods, people move to inner-ring suburbs or beyond and commute back
) `* }" \7 o ~+ minto the cores. Investors, especially the institutions, are concentrated in
# Z2 n3 |6 B9 U* }1 T' i% Sdowntown areas too. Planners and developers focus on infill and more vertical& G+ A' Y' j" z, [: Y
projects, which reinforce the urban cores. The hot-growth energy cities out
$ j' u, G$ S Y* B( S/ Swest - Calgary and Edmonton - score the highest ratings for investment
8 o* V3 h' ~. ]- j4 M! Iprospects, development, and for-sale housing, although it is not certain
' @! Q' y, ^7 p4 [whether the recent announcements on royalties will have any effect on this.) y" @8 w3 M- j U. }
Toronto, Canada's premier global pathway city, and Vancouver also have high$ Q! u* ~. O7 \5 ^. M. E$ U
ratings. Ottawa and Montreal follow, with Halifax lagging.0 B# t8 e6 x4 C6 {8 ~, N" i
- M& E$ E: A/ K0 X3 ]7 z Calgary/Edmonton
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Calgary is the Canada's "resource" capital and North America's number-one+ ~' h4 D& c0 d/ [2 _! z; o1 {" u
boomtown. Survey respondents foresee strong buys for all sectors: 53.5% give a
7 M0 E1 L) z [! f5 Nbuy recommendation for Hotel Property, 52.8% for Industrial/Distribution,
" l" u1 \0 N8 t48.1% for Retail and Apartment Residential and 44.6% for Office Property.
: x/ m' N$ W3 k- hFurthermore, on average the majority of respondents see Calgary For-Sale
$ k7 p0 t* y: r! }# fHomebuilding prospects as very good. Edmonton is closely mimicking the
/ P/ t0 l6 u8 |% V( L+ r/ TCalgary-style growth wave and as long as demand for energy resources stays
1 C0 b3 u" b. Z# s% {) V( Kstrong, this market will continue to do well.
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0 a9 O$ B4 j1 J7 C/ C3 n Vancouver r4 {3 o% {5 y4 L
8 a ^/ a8 C7 T1 [9 s! N$ z p) h
Vancouver's diversified economy is roaring, the mining industry is1 B" a0 [ ?0 k2 P" H$ v; u3 @6 g; D3 C$ v
booming and the city provides a large port and a high-tech center. Outrageous7 s" V) [/ ^9 O: `
real estate prices frustrate homebuyers and commercial investors and the# o9 C# v$ b2 j
market is extremely hard to crack. The 2010 Winter Olympic Games is also a
# U5 A7 M* D5 Zgrowth driver and accordingly 44.7% of respondents give Vancouver a buy
* w. |1 }8 A+ L7 }recommendation for Hotel Property. A further 43.5% give a buy Retail, 41.3%
# l' n# T7 F3 j# Z6 wfor Industrial/Distribution and 36.7% for Office Property followed by 34.1%
! t6 Q- K( D7 V& l }/ i; lfor Apartment Residential property. Vancouver also ranks in the good to very6 M% q( R/ f$ {* w" V8 |3 t
good mark for for-sale homebuilding prospects.) {6 ~1 Y, a$ k$ j& @
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Toronto
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6 q7 U! }) _# `% w" {3 f9 d6 r Toronto ranks as a major global pathway destination, 24-hour city, and
; i) ^3 ^0 o ]# Q8 ?; _ A: wmanufacturing hub. Compared with other national financial centers, the city is
( b4 J& I- X! F; i$ e2 Q: O9 g7 \relatively inexpensive. However, the rising loonie is hurting manufacturing
) s f- J% H( u! g' S- x' qindustries, and clouds over the US economy threaten to stall out momentum.
0 C! \1 U( ~8 Y" \" OThree new office towers are under construction, adding 3 million new square
$ L6 G8 z6 k8 Z; \. c: s8 ^feet of office space. Notably, Office (49.1%), Industrial (46.2%) and" V. s2 p( q; H8 N
Apartments (40.8%) are given solid buys.
" s3 Z Z$ }& {" ^2 L) w1 E
+ \2 u+ ~- z; y, _, w Montreal2 T& k' i3 j P+ ~7 l. R
; ~) C- s2 X% v2 D! K6 l
Montreal continues to face concerns about market stability and overall
: |/ F) v& r. egrowth prospects as major companies no longer choose it as a place to set up
! E; c# S" u% g5 v: @: ushop. But, plenty of government offices fill space. Of the larger cities in
0 i( |+ ~# x; [Canada, Montreal ranks lowest as a "buy" recommendation in all real estate
+ y2 Y7 p7 _. v# S/ V3 H4 g* ?sectors. However, respondents generally rated all Montreal real estate sectors) Y, t8 n K$ W" v% t% K
higher as a "hold" recommendation.
b' C6 m- P3 Z; `/ R
3 X; _2 ~; W3 ?( \& `2 y. p The report notes that best bets for investors for the coming years; C- e( C, A ]9 |
include a focus on all property sectors in the high-growth western energy' I8 j" ^9 g2 r- t8 n9 Y3 O( c. B
markets, hold on central business district office space, develop infill condos; b' Y4 a7 N# ?4 p. R5 W
near subways stops in Toronto, buy infill sites wherever you can and invest$ O0 p$ V1 D: m' P
overseas. Potter concludes, "Domestic opportunities are too limited at current
; I: z" C5 R/ p( K3 S4 Lprices."
a3 u) E4 L. U1 v$ t! P/ Q A copy of Emerging Trends in Real Estate(R) 2008 is available at
7 V+ T7 ^: t8 z7 _www.uli.org or www.pwc.com/imre.
7 a W, l2 \& ~' g3 A$ `5 e' {( }" Z& A) [, T. g$ [9 m" Q' ~
About PricewaterhouseCoopers
. G6 v, f- s! ~' v3 @% {
& d$ E% B% N) [: E5 X! R) h g% o PricewaterhouseCoopers (www.pwc.com) provides industry-focused assurance,4 f% Z' c3 d6 J; H9 L4 H$ D
tax and advisory services to build public trust and enhance value for its- x( ~, Y& O& |5 Y6 M: V* K& a9 a% Y
clients and their stakeholders. More than 140,000 people in 149 countries
8 h( _7 `- d; ?) \0 aacross our network share their thinking, experience and solutions to develop; ?( E; _ _) d% J
fresh perspectives and practical advice. Now celebrating 100 years of
% k6 |+ y' E l Kexcellence in Canada, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP (www.pwc.com/ca) and its
2 L, H, x+ V# l* \5 C8 Nrelated entities have more than 5,200 partners and staff in offices across the- l" h! F/ c( s0 P6 P, p, N
country.
+ g. j; K2 N3 k4 q "PricewaterhouseCoopers" refers to PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, an Ontario/ D. f) P* T2 F5 L
limited liability partnership, or, as the context requires, the7 Z6 y8 P8 x5 l+ Y+ ^9 v5 ?+ a
PricewaterhouseCoopers global network or other member firms of the network,1 X }( e- Y6 V; j% k
each of which is a separate and independent legal entity.! C! F. {' L3 h' R) o
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About the Urban Land Institute
7 R) `& i3 `- t7 E+ c+ {- P
H9 ^% S+ _4 Y. S The Urban Land Institute (www.uli.org) is a nonprofit education and
5 ~! x% ~! ] wresearch institute supported by its members. Its mission is to provide
" Y, p/ D8 a" Y# z) ~6 ?; Y0 G% u5 Kleadership in the responsible use of land and in sustaining and creating2 M5 P, W& I6 z2 i" D% x
thriving communities worldwide. Established in 1936, the Institute has more9 Z) v z# Q- U" I. S' K
than 38,000 members representing all aspects of land use and development
8 m& |8 N4 P( P( n) fdisciplines.# N% h! \: o: y6 g" x
The Urban Land Institute is an active and growing organization in Canada.
# I+ k$ v: b7 u: jWith nearly 700 members across the country, Canada's first ULI District
; X, ~/ i1 G. YCouncil was established in Toronto in 2005 and a second District Council is0 d' p/ b! a: N% R
now being formed in British Columbia. The Toronto District Council will be
6 R9 x$ H& D2 [% {$ [hosting a special event on Emerging Trends in Real Estate on November 20th,# P6 i: ?+ f# c8 X0 w/ }
2007, featuring Jonathan Miller, the principal author of the report, Blake" C+ _8 m; L& E+ Z6 y$ a2 T% U$ }
Hutcheson, President of CB Richard Ellis Canada Ltd., and George Carras,9 |1 _! X/ \7 Z3 \/ i6 K% k
President of RealNet Canada Inc. For more information on this event, please
5 m7 m+ n4 I5 ~call the Toronto District Council Coordinator at (647) 258-0017, or look on
9 x/ r8 G! Y8 y* t" M7 h$ m9 r. g1 ythe web at www.uli.org/events/index.cfm?id=3066.
5 b3 Y. H) n2 x# D; Q! n( T* G( v# T! [2 v4 n& c- S. o
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4 H+ r# E% L& w7 r# t" f1 t
For further information: Carolyn Forest, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP,1 T2 f* k* d1 _; E3 f6 n
(416) 814-5730, carolyn.forest@ca.pwc.com
- B" k" p# r f+ k1 fhttp://www.newswire.ca/en/releas ... r2007/05/c4080.html# |9 g3 F) n/ M5 p3 a
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