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Attention Real Estate Reporters: # u6 _5 U4 l) K2 f: L( R4 n
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Despite US housing woes Canadian real estate remains upbeat , Q& Y7 r+ k3 A, ~% @7 p/ \. ]9 p
TORONTO, Nov. 5 /CNW/ - Leading real estate experts are predicting the US6 y* K9 h/ @3 h9 O
commercial real estate market will slow in 2008 and follow a similar pattern
2 y$ e: w8 |9 g* w1 c: X1 yas the current residential market. However, according to the annual Emerging& B1 L1 q8 `$ ]+ {5 F; Y
Trends in Real Estate 2008 report, released by PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC); v: ~0 I3 H0 Z' {& l+ A
and the Urban Land Institute (ULI), their Canadian counterparts are much more
3 ^# o0 I" A2 mupbeat.
& C, I; `, Z; \2 W6 X4 g Now in its 29th year, Emerging Trends is the oldest, most highly regarded
7 ^$ |$ ]4 C7 ^: e' ?* gannual industry outlook for the real estate industry. The report reflects
4 g* g* A2 n0 _. z/ j$ R; ?1 A' ?" sinterviews with and surveys of more than 600 of the industry's leading real) _, L* u0 o2 V" b: v
estate experts, including investors, developers, property company4 o) {4 d/ R: c% b
representatives, lenders, brokers and consultants in both Canada and the US.
3 u& D" h8 }8 d! iOther versions of this report are conducted in countries around the world$ g; W/ }& m: n
including Asia Pacific and Europe.
1 {$ a# W p( p According to Chris Potter, PwC partner and leader of the firm's Canadian
- l. ^0 w! d* p9 m" V. ?4 c$ OReal Estate Tax practice, Canada benefits from a more conservative investment( P q' b6 _- M) D
environment than the US. "In Canada, institution-dominated markets appear to
$ R9 r' o! [$ n9 G3 K2 [: u' ybe avoiding 'transaction mania', but real estate values have reached record
( @( z- q! R$ W: xhighs and a strong economy has accelerated tenant demand for space."1 w8 g) { O. h1 P/ m- L, j
According to American respondents, a healthy correction south of the
% A% z* V0 n' y) r2 C8 [! oborder will likely bypass long-term investors but penalize late-to-the-game
/ `% c$ B- Z3 }7 b8 O- c/ dspeculators and overleveraged buyers. Canadian respondents to the survey/ o; W7 D I) B# W9 K0 B. J
remain positive about sidestepping any serious impacts of this possible US
8 C& s4 y( E/ V+ O7 rcorrection. Close to 36% view their prospects for profitability in 2008 to be; X+ ?7 r9 r& i
very good and a further 22.4% say they're excellent.
- M8 a# d8 n( G' B* x6 t The strongest areas of real estate business activity for Canadian
3 f' ] I. i: z- K+ O6 Qrespondents is predicted to be within real estate services, followed by+ {2 K+ r& x c$ _5 c4 ^* j7 \
commercial/multifamily development and homebuilding/residential land
( G8 I$ D$ q1 P; O& o. ~5 edevelopment. All property sectors share positive prospects across the country* Q7 I E) `# t4 P; I9 F# R' S
especially industrial and retail with respondents, on average, stating
& n4 n: B! u* Zdevelopment prospects are expected to be modestly good to good. The
* ^+ Z& R3 E: E% O5 m* Fresidential for-sale market is also expected to fair well, but might need to& l" t" ]9 J0 T6 q9 U% [
take a breather as homebuilders cannot keep up with the current pace and
g) V. u# y8 y; F/ j4 c6 \3 Esingle-family housing looks overpriced.
3 a+ s; }, D2 V Office stock is seeing limited inventories and dated product fill up with
g4 q! D; a9 V# C* Htenants. Except for Montreal, where office vacancies are nearing 9%. Canadian- v5 P6 _( N7 U. a( x( M5 e
metropolitan areas boast below 5% vacancies, and rents have room to push
6 w9 I* Q$ I3 x- C1 C4 ?higher. The survey is also showing that costs and land scarcity is limiting
& k: r9 i- x3 T) b$ Bnew development. Hotel investment and development prospects are modestly good,
; z" ]- ]5 e! J9 ^0 j1 gand most respondents rate this sector either a buy or a hold. Rental
% Q- G3 R& K" z: G9 [apartments are doing well in major cities with high immigration flows. Primary
; O+ A: t* s. m5 r1 f, owestern cities - Vancouver, Calgary, and Edmonton - are veering toward housing6 M3 L# o {% `/ S! [
shortages as workers, attracted by a plethora of well-paying jobs, pour into
6 J8 @5 K8 N9 `# Vthe energy zone. Apartment occupancies are soaring in these areas. Development8 S" L0 o( V) _* v
in other regions remains difficult because of costs and land scarcity.
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Canadian Markets to Watch
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The report comments on how Canadians like to live and work in central4 P, [' z6 c/ E( H; \5 N
cities, as long as they can afford it. If housing is too pricey in 24-hour
+ T" V/ f8 @ F* n7 vneighbourhoods, people move to inner-ring suburbs or beyond and commute back& a2 ^. g; _, J- P! `, [- _
into the cores. Investors, especially the institutions, are concentrated in
9 z0 [; }6 P/ s& fdowntown areas too. Planners and developers focus on infill and more vertical
) W2 Z7 v5 T* vprojects, which reinforce the urban cores. The hot-growth energy cities out
" R& \9 T& \" |) I0 mwest - Calgary and Edmonton - score the highest ratings for investment
) e3 T, m$ I6 {. Y! n- m) F" \prospects, development, and for-sale housing, although it is not certain( N, F0 C( z/ p/ t4 U! E3 j
whether the recent announcements on royalties will have any effect on this.
2 v+ \) Q& @/ XToronto, Canada's premier global pathway city, and Vancouver also have high
1 ?8 n4 J) L* I" \! A. ]5 E3 Vratings. Ottawa and Montreal follow, with Halifax lagging.* L/ X: X# r2 t& d: d* f- a8 d
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Calgary/Edmonton# v2 V0 W9 @! i
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Calgary is the Canada's "resource" capital and North America's number-one
- G$ V/ K8 z0 A$ Q9 S8 rboomtown. Survey respondents foresee strong buys for all sectors: 53.5% give a
2 B% b7 c5 z' v# t8 g2 N) D! |; ?/ qbuy recommendation for Hotel Property, 52.8% for Industrial/Distribution,( Z( a* P" \1 ]) X
48.1% for Retail and Apartment Residential and 44.6% for Office Property.
1 @- E5 U2 D: L% N+ W* c& e0 q% IFurthermore, on average the majority of respondents see Calgary For-Sale
& H" J% q" \7 J& fHomebuilding prospects as very good. Edmonton is closely mimicking the8 k" ~. `9 g6 F/ Q
Calgary-style growth wave and as long as demand for energy resources stays
$ [) e. D8 J% Astrong, this market will continue to do well.5 T8 k- `6 K$ |4 a9 `% c; _
, S# U! W& X: {7 x+ b2 ^/ O Vancouver
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Vancouver's diversified economy is roaring, the mining industry is1 C1 r* q6 x. k- y5 C
booming and the city provides a large port and a high-tech center. Outrageous
1 m8 l4 o* }$ r0 ureal estate prices frustrate homebuyers and commercial investors and the! a# I& B0 Y9 _3 K* Y: W) b
market is extremely hard to crack. The 2010 Winter Olympic Games is also a
& s: O- e* l. c% [' igrowth driver and accordingly 44.7% of respondents give Vancouver a buy
2 i+ f0 N1 c+ v0 ]! q1 W8 T. \recommendation for Hotel Property. A further 43.5% give a buy Retail, 41.3%% h) F1 R5 z5 t D+ E3 C7 g7 ?
for Industrial/Distribution and 36.7% for Office Property followed by 34.1%/ b0 E+ o, d5 H s( g
for Apartment Residential property. Vancouver also ranks in the good to very
+ c/ H3 `% |/ s# N2 O. X2 B$ I3 ~good mark for for-sale homebuilding prospects.& [9 o2 }! }- P; K6 k
* @4 J5 o7 f6 t% k2 ]
Toronto
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Toronto ranks as a major global pathway destination, 24-hour city, and
9 _7 T# S/ o' h! `manufacturing hub. Compared with other national financial centers, the city is; @2 k+ r# H$ C$ {
relatively inexpensive. However, the rising loonie is hurting manufacturing
: }8 ^- B) X [( U, Eindustries, and clouds over the US economy threaten to stall out momentum./ f0 y: a% D |' f4 m
Three new office towers are under construction, adding 3 million new square1 h7 ` O& S4 ^: Y1 ^2 t, D% e
feet of office space. Notably, Office (49.1%), Industrial (46.2%) and( E+ l; d8 B$ p" D
Apartments (40.8%) are given solid buys.
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% U) C: e8 r! h& B# @! b; D8 P" c Montreal6 [! _& i% h U6 y4 R; r) ^
, @. v" b& I( E. D1 A- d$ d Montreal continues to face concerns about market stability and overall: k# @) S: O1 I1 b3 S/ r# ?# @
growth prospects as major companies no longer choose it as a place to set up
6 W9 X% I; n: D% v' ]& sshop. But, plenty of government offices fill space. Of the larger cities in& e% b% Q' {6 @: Y( i: ~
Canada, Montreal ranks lowest as a "buy" recommendation in all real estate. v2 Y# v0 h: o( r5 a2 ~/ S( p
sectors. However, respondents generally rated all Montreal real estate sectors4 j+ {3 q# z- q9 W8 y: g2 U
higher as a "hold" recommendation.- ?& @9 R6 L! @7 A
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The report notes that best bets for investors for the coming years" P% Z/ L( U+ x& `+ X( h
include a focus on all property sectors in the high-growth western energy
+ v. V9 w- s- N: I0 u0 i- N( wmarkets, hold on central business district office space, develop infill condos
% ^ y. f4 l% n1 r# D7 u6 Z% M0 {near subways stops in Toronto, buy infill sites wherever you can and invest
: v6 a/ z& h# Moverseas. Potter concludes, "Domestic opportunities are too limited at current
5 e+ l( z, L/ x9 a. o9 ~+ A0 F! v7 Cprices."
2 n9 N7 w: K. w. ? A copy of Emerging Trends in Real Estate(R) 2008 is available at
* W0 `3 `8 D, Z1 z5 zwww.uli.org or www.pwc.com/imre.2 P/ ]3 \& o5 W0 G5 ]+ _
" R- z. I' t! |; V. X9 ~ About PricewaterhouseCoopers
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PricewaterhouseCoopers (www.pwc.com) provides industry-focused assurance,$ f4 B' Y: L8 ?7 w
tax and advisory services to build public trust and enhance value for its' X9 B5 a/ S1 \) M& N. P
clients and their stakeholders. More than 140,000 people in 149 countries2 i: o5 j' ?- f5 z6 _2 Q
across our network share their thinking, experience and solutions to develop: }: O G3 |7 J; h
fresh perspectives and practical advice. Now celebrating 100 years of- U! U- S4 Q' o$ A0 @/ e
excellence in Canada, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP (www.pwc.com/ca) and its1 k: k' e j6 p9 t3 J2 o
related entities have more than 5,200 partners and staff in offices across the# _* |. D% M; }3 }* E' V
country./ H* D3 @, l0 E3 k( @
"PricewaterhouseCoopers" refers to PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, an Ontario. l' \) e- \$ G9 W6 u
limited liability partnership, or, as the context requires, the
9 ^) k% B) Z/ v0 Z. RPricewaterhouseCoopers global network or other member firms of the network,7 t+ m: [- y& a* y D- k4 [
each of which is a separate and independent legal entity.
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/ M+ X; z" t7 L5 c$ [: v: @( H% A About the Urban Land Institute
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- C. ~6 L. }+ O" A t+ r The Urban Land Institute (www.uli.org) is a nonprofit education and
! c7 ]* R2 e, D/ c; n) o& Gresearch institute supported by its members. Its mission is to provide# G; c# |8 |5 O) k$ |
leadership in the responsible use of land and in sustaining and creating3 Q# y" t9 Y& s/ K% f1 t* I5 V7 V
thriving communities worldwide. Established in 1936, the Institute has more
+ b4 {- c- s* c" _than 38,000 members representing all aspects of land use and development9 ^/ z+ X3 R% t3 ?- \3 m! l* } r
disciplines.
4 x- a `0 x6 h) R) j5 R4 C( M0 N The Urban Land Institute is an active and growing organization in Canada.
' O1 J, o S. U2 H& ^0 ]* {With nearly 700 members across the country, Canada's first ULI District
% @, j# A7 \, p$ O# t! J$ _( RCouncil was established in Toronto in 2005 and a second District Council is" U0 Z& C# Q1 W) N: o. ]9 |: F
now being formed in British Columbia. The Toronto District Council will be
: u6 q- {* N# C' a- w6 W2 Rhosting a special event on Emerging Trends in Real Estate on November 20th,4 u& g; j( g B! `) P/ e5 m
2007, featuring Jonathan Miller, the principal author of the report, Blake
+ `: g0 s, c$ n, {5 x/ f0 N1 E- pHutcheson, President of CB Richard Ellis Canada Ltd., and George Carras,
+ x4 G9 K7 R3 \0 K* {! oPresident of RealNet Canada Inc. For more information on this event, please" N) l1 F6 _& I$ U% c9 j% [- T$ b
call the Toronto District Council Coordinator at (647) 258-0017, or look on# G k, V' Z# s [7 w! y
the web at www.uli.org/events/index.cfm?id=3066.: N6 t/ g. h d p' m
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For further information: Carolyn Forest, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP,
( R2 z' C1 W( c(416) 814-5730, carolyn.forest@ca.pwc.com6 H8 t& V4 S0 d" X# C [
http://www.newswire.ca/en/releas ... r2007/05/c4080.html8 c( b# M2 w% d5 H' P+ u
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