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Attention Real Estate Reporters:
* S" h. }. T' V' \* s- f1 x: D9 A' J, M6 J, C+ h8 }& I, I0 O
Despite US housing woes Canadian real estate remains upbeat
]) g2 O! t, x2 o TORONTO, Nov. 5 /CNW/ - Leading real estate experts are predicting the US
/ Y/ k% {( ]' o$ V. [' Tcommercial real estate market will slow in 2008 and follow a similar pattern
; z& H! S7 q8 \9 e2 Aas the current residential market. However, according to the annual Emerging! _' g, G, y; H% u( s; ~
Trends in Real Estate 2008 report, released by PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC)
' v) p* e1 {. J9 x" Band the Urban Land Institute (ULI), their Canadian counterparts are much more; p' G4 s% b$ q# _7 W& w6 C
upbeat.% s8 a1 h8 F. F4 E! k Q9 b* e
Now in its 29th year, Emerging Trends is the oldest, most highly regarded
& Q$ [2 a: D# M5 ~2 Mannual industry outlook for the real estate industry. The report reflects, D @ t4 g* ?0 B
interviews with and surveys of more than 600 of the industry's leading real) o b4 b: S5 u0 L3 c
estate experts, including investors, developers, property company
" }4 B, P `* d) L& F4 c) drepresentatives, lenders, brokers and consultants in both Canada and the US.! P/ a' s- n- @( w y
Other versions of this report are conducted in countries around the world( ?* `* N' F0 Z& x" |* P
including Asia Pacific and Europe.
0 g: l/ R W2 _4 j4 X/ i$ X' A According to Chris Potter, PwC partner and leader of the firm's Canadian
8 e7 ]. V# ^5 a) G1 ^9 k9 ~' @Real Estate Tax practice, Canada benefits from a more conservative investment+ v1 {1 i( ~ J# |$ v; g
environment than the US. "In Canada, institution-dominated markets appear to
. ^. D( y3 E8 T6 x1 R* M$ m$ w8 Zbe avoiding 'transaction mania', but real estate values have reached record
% q5 b- j( x: K9 z" T( A- M) \# ?highs and a strong economy has accelerated tenant demand for space."$ o% c3 H4 H z ^9 E5 {9 f6 I3 P, ?
According to American respondents, a healthy correction south of the
9 T; `0 }% b5 n9 x: G% {! ?border will likely bypass long-term investors but penalize late-to-the-game# y; O% T- n. X" O& A4 R
speculators and overleveraged buyers. Canadian respondents to the survey
+ v$ h$ C! |% ]# M' fremain positive about sidestepping any serious impacts of this possible US
! t: N8 R2 C$ c! H% Y1 e' \4 Fcorrection. Close to 36% view their prospects for profitability in 2008 to be9 w& m) s" O, H% I
very good and a further 22.4% say they're excellent.- Z8 w2 b7 ]2 t r* N
The strongest areas of real estate business activity for Canadian+ k2 W% i; }5 i/ S" c( e8 G3 k
respondents is predicted to be within real estate services, followed by3 o- L8 g1 B! J4 R/ B. ~. W
commercial/multifamily development and homebuilding/residential land5 U) x2 Q8 j4 ]# ?# d9 j$ V
development. All property sectors share positive prospects across the country
9 B/ y4 f0 M- {; f9 Z2 o- b7 uespecially industrial and retail with respondents, on average, stating% J( [3 J3 p3 r" ^+ X0 ?; X) ]
development prospects are expected to be modestly good to good. The
8 G% o$ s, C& \( t2 Nresidential for-sale market is also expected to fair well, but might need to
& n% }) v7 \, d7 O1 X; Ctake a breather as homebuilders cannot keep up with the current pace and
( q2 [0 y+ H( ksingle-family housing looks overpriced.
% b h. m: W% h& [ Office stock is seeing limited inventories and dated product fill up with+ m6 i. `- P9 Y) v- B
tenants. Except for Montreal, where office vacancies are nearing 9%. Canadian
+ M% F) y$ I6 _metropolitan areas boast below 5% vacancies, and rents have room to push! d" P9 D9 ]- b# p! q1 N
higher. The survey is also showing that costs and land scarcity is limiting
: M; ^) U- I- H+ }" _new development. Hotel investment and development prospects are modestly good,( |2 @1 P1 j7 E; f" ]
and most respondents rate this sector either a buy or a hold. Rental
% }0 C0 j: m# v! w$ J0 [( A7 c) }1 |apartments are doing well in major cities with high immigration flows. Primary2 Q, _3 z }! t' G! F5 J+ k
western cities - Vancouver, Calgary, and Edmonton - are veering toward housing" d8 L# F: K+ q
shortages as workers, attracted by a plethora of well-paying jobs, pour into
) _7 u, V& @/ m2 K% r9 L0 Cthe energy zone. Apartment occupancies are soaring in these areas. Development6 |0 f3 l' Z! }% g6 k( X! L
in other regions remains difficult because of costs and land scarcity.; x z G1 t5 j+ ~
$ X3 I0 A$ x5 a, w: W6 [% X; l
Canadian Markets to Watch+ p' q1 [$ f1 j! c1 M' w2 c
( H- P, x$ B: n- s4 W The report comments on how Canadians like to live and work in central
4 X2 d$ y: a Z% fcities, as long as they can afford it. If housing is too pricey in 24-hour8 ]! E$ a4 e" _) A2 r( ]8 `) ~1 m
neighbourhoods, people move to inner-ring suburbs or beyond and commute back D. w$ Y1 o/ N. \6 c3 N
into the cores. Investors, especially the institutions, are concentrated in
9 Z* `+ z# D' i0 r* udowntown areas too. Planners and developers focus on infill and more vertical& G3 K s. r3 z+ m% O9 p: j
projects, which reinforce the urban cores. The hot-growth energy cities out0 d7 ^2 k: y$ \- U- U" ]5 n% F7 `
west - Calgary and Edmonton - score the highest ratings for investment& C6 I. P+ M, a' J0 X; z
prospects, development, and for-sale housing, although it is not certain
) I: X: q2 ?5 \) R7 q6 `2 fwhether the recent announcements on royalties will have any effect on this.
! J% y s2 G: k9 s) m) P7 v& RToronto, Canada's premier global pathway city, and Vancouver also have high) c* N4 r$ P5 v: A' {. o) S
ratings. Ottawa and Montreal follow, with Halifax lagging.
0 {8 K* A9 { [# [/ G1 r* R; w. Z# Z T0 v! ] u
Calgary/Edmonton
3 C0 m9 _8 s. s U- }' ?. V1 S+ s: D# a1 z# I+ U( |
Calgary is the Canada's "resource" capital and North America's number-one
! H, J$ [4 a1 ~% Pboomtown. Survey respondents foresee strong buys for all sectors: 53.5% give a
% }6 g. T: x1 C d/ n0 wbuy recommendation for Hotel Property, 52.8% for Industrial/Distribution," t4 v' K0 V2 n
48.1% for Retail and Apartment Residential and 44.6% for Office Property.
# t) `, [: m$ XFurthermore, on average the majority of respondents see Calgary For-Sale6 x9 F4 B2 @: e' z
Homebuilding prospects as very good. Edmonton is closely mimicking the- f6 m" Z$ Q; z; V
Calgary-style growth wave and as long as demand for energy resources stays+ U. P8 y U- s7 u' |
strong, this market will continue to do well.
+ R* g8 ^! x2 W3 m$ o, Q! @/ z$ P# I7 O& ^( e
Vancouver
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Vancouver's diversified economy is roaring, the mining industry is5 g; w1 z! N/ {* W& C
booming and the city provides a large port and a high-tech center. Outrageous
( X2 V+ D3 `5 r- Zreal estate prices frustrate homebuyers and commercial investors and the6 l" |0 ^) @' o! M% b9 j5 Y
market is extremely hard to crack. The 2010 Winter Olympic Games is also a0 j0 z0 l/ w F( U+ p7 _
growth driver and accordingly 44.7% of respondents give Vancouver a buy' v1 i8 ~9 _" O& N i' j
recommendation for Hotel Property. A further 43.5% give a buy Retail, 41.3%/ m9 c/ R# K! Q1 |6 a; U! d' l
for Industrial/Distribution and 36.7% for Office Property followed by 34.1%
3 u( J- | e. h/ Z9 I& ^for Apartment Residential property. Vancouver also ranks in the good to very
2 B% f; A) S# ?: lgood mark for for-sale homebuilding prospects.
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Toronto
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9 A7 _6 q" ]- d7 [! P Toronto ranks as a major global pathway destination, 24-hour city, and5 }! x/ h6 m( n, [- I% H+ R
manufacturing hub. Compared with other national financial centers, the city is
& J8 `: ~- }$ t5 ~relatively inexpensive. However, the rising loonie is hurting manufacturing
) @# R% j& |: a% m( ?3 ?( B% Hindustries, and clouds over the US economy threaten to stall out momentum.
- q! X3 F4 P* v4 lThree new office towers are under construction, adding 3 million new square2 v! E; T% v$ B" X9 F
feet of office space. Notably, Office (49.1%), Industrial (46.2%) and
i' a/ e, Q. F) b5 U& rApartments (40.8%) are given solid buys.; X6 L" `8 b- ]: }' l! p: p
7 O5 C# W- O: ?, N
Montreal
8 L# U% ]# y# J* R( I2 q: ~! B! p# [; n" L: n* w) f
Montreal continues to face concerns about market stability and overall- E, j% h! t2 U9 b1 ^* ?9 v% _
growth prospects as major companies no longer choose it as a place to set up
3 P+ G% E" A- G+ A8 v" H# n" r& sshop. But, plenty of government offices fill space. Of the larger cities in
5 z4 n6 S3 c' P O3 n) QCanada, Montreal ranks lowest as a "buy" recommendation in all real estate
1 H% R" _# X* ssectors. However, respondents generally rated all Montreal real estate sectors
% m5 G# g a5 L/ w3 Phigher as a "hold" recommendation.
0 T, U' N; U6 w* L/ J
3 j) b4 r* }5 W The report notes that best bets for investors for the coming years
8 F0 V6 D) c4 I- A7 A) `) B# Hinclude a focus on all property sectors in the high-growth western energy
, e& ?; L: y, g* t- j. ^markets, hold on central business district office space, develop infill condos D' L* C, A& P' C p
near subways stops in Toronto, buy infill sites wherever you can and invest" V' `" r3 l# y* Q
overseas. Potter concludes, "Domestic opportunities are too limited at current5 q( K7 V- P- S5 A2 x3 u( S
prices."6 t6 n8 ^6 [7 F% z6 S
A copy of Emerging Trends in Real Estate(R) 2008 is available at+ Y0 M2 q5 o0 D2 ^- Y3 v* T
www.uli.org or www.pwc.com/imre.. ^6 w; p9 W7 G, W
`( u/ L2 f' p2 W7 G& [ About PricewaterhouseCoopers
3 k4 _0 V* @) @6 K, ?# x
" t3 _. O' ^2 |/ B7 p0 b) ~- } PricewaterhouseCoopers (www.pwc.com) provides industry-focused assurance,4 p8 m, n. W" w7 j1 s7 j
tax and advisory services to build public trust and enhance value for its
- P7 o! m' K; }/ z& pclients and their stakeholders. More than 140,000 people in 149 countries
2 ?1 y0 y7 E9 n' Iacross our network share their thinking, experience and solutions to develop
. f! I5 i# X2 N9 x) M7 a! }fresh perspectives and practical advice. Now celebrating 100 years of
/ n: M6 _/ S- M! _. L8 O( xexcellence in Canada, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP (www.pwc.com/ca) and its
3 u* r' I* X: l8 \& K) Z% m: }" Krelated entities have more than 5,200 partners and staff in offices across the
& l* w' G" q3 x) a( Bcountry.2 e* w. H/ I, C5 a; z0 V: a% S7 Q
"PricewaterhouseCoopers" refers to PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, an Ontario
* u2 X _9 c8 U- ?* g3 o4 z% mlimited liability partnership, or, as the context requires, the( c0 i' @& Z, U5 [. y9 D5 I+ N: }
PricewaterhouseCoopers global network or other member firms of the network,) d( P/ t* y* E) Z9 O7 U/ x
each of which is a separate and independent legal entity.$ k* m7 O7 E# H0 Q( }/ ^
# c7 @- S: @! v) H/ ?. }" q1 m About the Urban Land Institute
3 \9 T, J* Q6 A9 v9 t- g6 ^. }7 T* I, ? ]
The Urban Land Institute (www.uli.org) is a nonprofit education and# A2 q9 R! r, C0 N n& K
research institute supported by its members. Its mission is to provide
/ K* q$ o& X+ m1 Q! e! K5 Hleadership in the responsible use of land and in sustaining and creating) n6 V& S3 D U
thriving communities worldwide. Established in 1936, the Institute has more; d* V, Q1 U# e
than 38,000 members representing all aspects of land use and development, P9 {2 x, V" `0 q. L, Q! d
disciplines.+ z7 l8 m+ f- o6 ~1 ]& H# J! S5 p8 E
The Urban Land Institute is an active and growing organization in Canada.
u ` X. f0 H2 b, _3 x7 L5 K' S5 iWith nearly 700 members across the country, Canada's first ULI District
6 ]* U7 |' B; n8 p tCouncil was established in Toronto in 2005 and a second District Council is: ~+ D2 l7 F b7 o. _9 v
now being formed in British Columbia. The Toronto District Council will be
% y5 e% j5 K( b4 X* khosting a special event on Emerging Trends in Real Estate on November 20th,
9 }/ c' Y+ O5 P2007, featuring Jonathan Miller, the principal author of the report, Blake
( p; m; ^4 {! C' k O: ^6 l. i2 dHutcheson, President of CB Richard Ellis Canada Ltd., and George Carras,, N: d/ V& y- l9 } b4 a+ j
President of RealNet Canada Inc. For more information on this event, please7 W% g, B7 T1 R3 l( ~' k
call the Toronto District Council Coordinator at (647) 258-0017, or look on
' e( @: e3 x; L2 p0 x$ gthe web at www.uli.org/events/index.cfm?id=3066.
. d& c/ M' u# I+ ^/ E7 w. m6 h7 J7 ]8 S5 z( v+ g; k
& M: [ B. U! ]. s3 A' n
5 n8 ?$ u. v5 L, j$ i* l) J* DFor further information: Carolyn Forest, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP,5 w. j# x# P, h: X3 o
(416) 814-5730, carolyn.forest@ca.pwc.com
: R' S1 |: [& N& N/ Ohttp://www.newswire.ca/en/releas ... r2007/05/c4080.html+ c' t" F2 I; X. G! D) L" t
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