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Attention Real Estate Reporters:
, i* t' ~( |# Z4 _7 y0 @9 Q5 W* n& g5 y2 ~# p- P
Despite US housing woes Canadian real estate remains upbeat
& \' s$ i/ K( D1 `! ?; c TORONTO, Nov. 5 /CNW/ - Leading real estate experts are predicting the US
& V5 G$ _: Z0 t, U" ]9 w7 Hcommercial real estate market will slow in 2008 and follow a similar pattern
" q$ _ ?4 S# \+ c: m6 H6 Jas the current residential market. However, according to the annual Emerging
0 u9 @% o0 ^* j- iTrends in Real Estate 2008 report, released by PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC)
, K1 Z& X; X Q- o, z( H- qand the Urban Land Institute (ULI), their Canadian counterparts are much more
4 {9 v- a7 r% Y! r wupbeat.
- Q+ M8 V$ X" g+ N$ Y7 i8 G6 v Now in its 29th year, Emerging Trends is the oldest, most highly regarded% [" N4 r9 j) M& J
annual industry outlook for the real estate industry. The report reflects
" t' q# f8 m# d$ M2 ~interviews with and surveys of more than 600 of the industry's leading real" A* B& O0 `2 Y/ s7 a+ T) f
estate experts, including investors, developers, property company( U% ]5 t/ u' }* c- S0 M
representatives, lenders, brokers and consultants in both Canada and the US." x' z) [% v2 q4 [
Other versions of this report are conducted in countries around the world
; a$ @+ L9 i( b+ rincluding Asia Pacific and Europe.- a3 B/ K$ }. h# W4 l" V6 O' D
According to Chris Potter, PwC partner and leader of the firm's Canadian) K; x* t, n! x/ C$ Q
Real Estate Tax practice, Canada benefits from a more conservative investment. B. b D- O5 l; H3 S% C# V
environment than the US. "In Canada, institution-dominated markets appear to; P+ v/ A k6 i4 V5 @6 ^3 `) }6 v l& O
be avoiding 'transaction mania', but real estate values have reached record
# u( }1 z, r9 p4 t# ?7 P, ghighs and a strong economy has accelerated tenant demand for space."
q- S9 B y: l2 n: D According to American respondents, a healthy correction south of the* K+ ~: d7 u* {6 Z+ R
border will likely bypass long-term investors but penalize late-to-the-game, A% F# ?) v) A
speculators and overleveraged buyers. Canadian respondents to the survey
2 s% }) p( ~9 Mremain positive about sidestepping any serious impacts of this possible US' H4 c4 q8 h# h; e- o
correction. Close to 36% view their prospects for profitability in 2008 to be
# i1 s4 g5 C% {! cvery good and a further 22.4% say they're excellent.# k' u$ T% U6 s K
The strongest areas of real estate business activity for Canadian
' C6 ]" k$ X# r% k( Arespondents is predicted to be within real estate services, followed by
% M7 K0 g* g2 J ]commercial/multifamily development and homebuilding/residential land' T+ V( a5 W: g* o! H
development. All property sectors share positive prospects across the country/ g" |( Y* Y4 i9 X. _$ X y& T
especially industrial and retail with respondents, on average, stating: a; m) ] E0 ?) E2 \: R
development prospects are expected to be modestly good to good. The5 s7 H0 Z& [% S8 C. Z
residential for-sale market is also expected to fair well, but might need to
$ s/ s; X; Q0 F! Ltake a breather as homebuilders cannot keep up with the current pace and
# v; K4 P- D/ fsingle-family housing looks overpriced.( {+ o4 Y k' X2 A$ W; m
Office stock is seeing limited inventories and dated product fill up with8 o8 _" W! \1 `( _9 m$ n* M2 s1 I, v
tenants. Except for Montreal, where office vacancies are nearing 9%. Canadian
: `2 f) z ?& U/ J9 cmetropolitan areas boast below 5% vacancies, and rents have room to push
# _# s2 g7 ?' A# g, l6 d3 k9 ~higher. The survey is also showing that costs and land scarcity is limiting
& G- S( s2 U$ H. }7 f' `new development. Hotel investment and development prospects are modestly good,5 ]6 @& J% k5 l6 f# N1 y+ [
and most respondents rate this sector either a buy or a hold. Rental# X7 C2 w' R- J7 w
apartments are doing well in major cities with high immigration flows. Primary/ N6 D+ J0 D1 W4 m1 ~, |9 C
western cities - Vancouver, Calgary, and Edmonton - are veering toward housing$ K' X ~0 j: W- w9 Y) X0 ~
shortages as workers, attracted by a plethora of well-paying jobs, pour into
' p3 |' \6 G3 B, w" Kthe energy zone. Apartment occupancies are soaring in these areas. Development
, i7 Z; q+ r D1 \in other regions remains difficult because of costs and land scarcity.
`& V4 R' r9 Z5 k0 f; x5 l) Z7 B8 u
Canadian Markets to Watch. k& i# v5 G0 p6 ?; A5 J1 i3 q% c
: ?; t7 s9 z0 e0 o5 o8 I' f( U The report comments on how Canadians like to live and work in central
, W3 @: ?; x, {6 H( w! f( mcities, as long as they can afford it. If housing is too pricey in 24-hour
$ q2 G4 Y5 I$ M* L0 Rneighbourhoods, people move to inner-ring suburbs or beyond and commute back
; Q+ O4 ^9 T! h3 a0 {into the cores. Investors, especially the institutions, are concentrated in
1 A* i# J; t* H& Sdowntown areas too. Planners and developers focus on infill and more vertical) G& I; S" @3 k
projects, which reinforce the urban cores. The hot-growth energy cities out o* A- b: E8 |
west - Calgary and Edmonton - score the highest ratings for investment$ i1 B* ~1 j3 _4 j* H+ O' s& [# H
prospects, development, and for-sale housing, although it is not certain
9 {. K+ \; v; F! o& T' o) Zwhether the recent announcements on royalties will have any effect on this.8 m b3 n) l S- G! X
Toronto, Canada's premier global pathway city, and Vancouver also have high, `4 G p+ Y% `8 G3 C* W" ` A2 u
ratings. Ottawa and Montreal follow, with Halifax lagging.5 B( V- R7 `( \* x
: ?* G u9 Q. f0 Y, j Calgary/Edmonton0 W% x; q" Y$ A" e7 y( f
( C% [9 ^* S2 h Calgary is the Canada's "resource" capital and North America's number-one
# A; v/ Y; l4 r/ Eboomtown. Survey respondents foresee strong buys for all sectors: 53.5% give a
, u: x9 X# A) O) I* Abuy recommendation for Hotel Property, 52.8% for Industrial/Distribution,. L6 b* [# F3 _3 I5 [' ?) ?
48.1% for Retail and Apartment Residential and 44.6% for Office Property.2 h. _0 U6 x, c: @# d; m7 e
Furthermore, on average the majority of respondents see Calgary For-Sale
3 J- \: _, i1 V& |4 M9 D0 X0 AHomebuilding prospects as very good. Edmonton is closely mimicking the" r4 M1 f* H- [
Calgary-style growth wave and as long as demand for energy resources stays
9 Y9 {: W* ]4 Y$ r& v. Wstrong, this market will continue to do well.$ R2 @2 A: P9 W; i, z$ V" c/ v
5 A. E' Q0 l" F; y Q5 Y& e Vancouver* R2 o0 I' P3 r* H2 _4 s4 Y
0 Z2 N8 |0 U9 |& l4 S; _ Vancouver's diversified economy is roaring, the mining industry is
3 `: `; O# O- j( I6 v* c" {booming and the city provides a large port and a high-tech center. Outrageous
7 g/ ^. C- t7 _% greal estate prices frustrate homebuyers and commercial investors and the* K$ i( ^: u& R; L, ^$ R- `9 m' M$ J6 r
market is extremely hard to crack. The 2010 Winter Olympic Games is also a
- T# q6 M8 J+ ]/ E2 [2 C' Vgrowth driver and accordingly 44.7% of respondents give Vancouver a buy3 M& Y$ i* ~1 J
recommendation for Hotel Property. A further 43.5% give a buy Retail, 41.3%
f, F% t! ]2 q. ~9 X- Z; M) vfor Industrial/Distribution and 36.7% for Office Property followed by 34.1%: v8 ?# j/ X0 ^, c7 S0 I D
for Apartment Residential property. Vancouver also ranks in the good to very
" ~ T, p( F$ b' {) e) N Mgood mark for for-sale homebuilding prospects.8 G9 Y5 \* ]% m8 V
9 \9 ^1 w$ Y9 g; m0 v Toronto( {+ V1 k" O, R/ u) s; c: E2 j3 E' m
2 y" C+ h: m; t. m+ H Toronto ranks as a major global pathway destination, 24-hour city, and
" G. w, U( M& m9 V9 Ymanufacturing hub. Compared with other national financial centers, the city is
/ f" X- M# B& Y Grelatively inexpensive. However, the rising loonie is hurting manufacturing
) y& L" N0 p1 u9 T" g1 j+ a" A6 Jindustries, and clouds over the US economy threaten to stall out momentum.. W3 `# }. t' w
Three new office towers are under construction, adding 3 million new square5 K7 F$ s# ~% ^- L: g; p% `
feet of office space. Notably, Office (49.1%), Industrial (46.2%) and
( m4 K7 T V% ~" L& XApartments (40.8%) are given solid buys.: g6 r% j/ N$ E- S' W" n
/ [& i( |2 [8 \! G* g3 F Montreal
2 @! B, o. e _6 C! o1 t0 H7 g% S6 N+ j# y M; M
Montreal continues to face concerns about market stability and overall# q8 g [& B4 O) i* _
growth prospects as major companies no longer choose it as a place to set up1 q/ ^$ k$ Z* l) Z4 B5 V; ~% z
shop. But, plenty of government offices fill space. Of the larger cities in/ m+ g. x) ~5 r6 I8 ~
Canada, Montreal ranks lowest as a "buy" recommendation in all real estate+ x+ a' O# V+ I
sectors. However, respondents generally rated all Montreal real estate sectors; @' D/ f, l+ ]* a1 u
higher as a "hold" recommendation.
. V% a" s( }; U2 S2 n
/ X- w/ T v+ X# H3 z% Q" z The report notes that best bets for investors for the coming years. |0 G+ E n |6 N5 m: W$ p' Q# b
include a focus on all property sectors in the high-growth western energy
0 g# M; C0 `( [3 l! o/ l; c: ]markets, hold on central business district office space, develop infill condos2 E/ w9 D5 o; ?6 s& u8 Z5 [) ^
near subways stops in Toronto, buy infill sites wherever you can and invest
9 k# e6 M9 r- s2 g" joverseas. Potter concludes, "Domestic opportunities are too limited at current
, w; `- v; G5 ?4 u0 xprices."
' b! q: p6 j ^7 z- i A copy of Emerging Trends in Real Estate(R) 2008 is available at) |( V$ R0 i& p/ N1 d: N# Z
www.uli.org or www.pwc.com/imre.
4 h7 m4 g: I1 @: `7 w; g0 B, X: U- d1 e' T4 ?4 ]' Y
About PricewaterhouseCoopers# u5 }' {$ J8 M. V
0 n, K$ O* o7 J' U PricewaterhouseCoopers (www.pwc.com) provides industry-focused assurance," J& W( D+ t( L: j0 M$ n( h2 l0 t
tax and advisory services to build public trust and enhance value for its
3 X/ c* B6 \0 u( Uclients and their stakeholders. More than 140,000 people in 149 countries l) I* ~' s5 r3 n" R( a5 T8 [: A* n
across our network share their thinking, experience and solutions to develop
! s7 {% _$ q' |* @fresh perspectives and practical advice. Now celebrating 100 years of' I' }! d0 v- I+ n7 x
excellence in Canada, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP (www.pwc.com/ca) and its0 ^+ x8 C# _( x
related entities have more than 5,200 partners and staff in offices across the
/ I& C0 P" }& s; n& z! K! h" \' Y& hcountry.' ~& s3 m' y* U7 x" ]
"PricewaterhouseCoopers" refers to PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, an Ontario
* g, l z3 r8 y" v7 I" I9 Hlimited liability partnership, or, as the context requires, the7 O0 l# x( m: C8 ^! U
PricewaterhouseCoopers global network or other member firms of the network,& k8 e& ?' s( r) N- u& u" v7 }
each of which is a separate and independent legal entity.
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About the Urban Land Institute
+ B, P' D, m/ J" T
( i: G8 C: C0 _ The Urban Land Institute (www.uli.org) is a nonprofit education and( K/ ^( h0 J1 J* _8 O0 T
research institute supported by its members. Its mission is to provide; Y; A4 o5 A2 j' c; V8 `
leadership in the responsible use of land and in sustaining and creating. \# V$ y: d! B9 N* k
thriving communities worldwide. Established in 1936, the Institute has more
( P! b( j0 D+ nthan 38,000 members representing all aspects of land use and development9 x2 `9 J% n1 H
disciplines.* S. V! ^# E9 W7 F1 G) F) \
The Urban Land Institute is an active and growing organization in Canada.5 v8 H$ }( `' E
With nearly 700 members across the country, Canada's first ULI District6 ~) }2 H/ M4 _
Council was established in Toronto in 2005 and a second District Council is5 W0 `+ h* y, @; y# u
now being formed in British Columbia. The Toronto District Council will be: u- j' X4 L4 P2 e5 f' B/ F; s
hosting a special event on Emerging Trends in Real Estate on November 20th,
* x" G, |7 V. d3 Y% N1 k4 L/ e2007, featuring Jonathan Miller, the principal author of the report, Blake
3 @1 y+ }' H- N- A: j7 f7 ]% zHutcheson, President of CB Richard Ellis Canada Ltd., and George Carras,9 c9 Y/ w- ]5 b8 r& H
President of RealNet Canada Inc. For more information on this event, please. c f; S! T# w- e
call the Toronto District Council Coordinator at (647) 258-0017, or look on
2 V6 ?+ R' |" w, H/ qthe web at www.uli.org/events/index.cfm?id=3066.
6 A/ _$ o6 n& Y3 g$ {
8 @4 v: W- e/ [$ p. d/ ^
4 ]% e- T% h3 U6 q
; w0 Y2 J i/ [% Q" |For further information: Carolyn Forest, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP,: w* j5 d% n: A: [
(416) 814-5730, carolyn.forest@ca.pwc.com
9 ]+ e' Q* p+ J9 X" F, P# o* ghttp://www.newswire.ca/en/releas ... r2007/05/c4080.html9 _* b& G* C. S7 x4 V. k/ }" X. F* f
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