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Attention Real Estate Reporters:
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Despite US housing woes Canadian real estate remains upbeat ( a+ e4 [7 c8 r% x* p5 H p
TORONTO, Nov. 5 /CNW/ - Leading real estate experts are predicting the US
& q/ k7 N* ]2 hcommercial real estate market will slow in 2008 and follow a similar pattern
1 [& r7 R8 U8 }) u" Has the current residential market. However, according to the annual Emerging) k8 m3 u3 o. I4 N$ H2 p
Trends in Real Estate 2008 report, released by PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC)2 i/ L# n5 N5 o: X
and the Urban Land Institute (ULI), their Canadian counterparts are much more
. F" v6 B0 K6 q* B4 b7 ]/ [+ _6 D# mupbeat.
6 E$ n. P6 X }+ p/ u1 E: c6 i Now in its 29th year, Emerging Trends is the oldest, most highly regarded/ R2 a8 |( t# h( r
annual industry outlook for the real estate industry. The report reflects
. a: X3 h: C& q" f9 U, Uinterviews with and surveys of more than 600 of the industry's leading real6 M/ T8 S9 l; Y5 W& e M. t
estate experts, including investors, developers, property company3 A8 J- \ U$ L7 p
representatives, lenders, brokers and consultants in both Canada and the US.
& a! H1 p, U" m4 }5 pOther versions of this report are conducted in countries around the world- H9 z; H9 p. T# j; B7 p! d
including Asia Pacific and Europe.
3 G5 _. C, V- X6 w, M According to Chris Potter, PwC partner and leader of the firm's Canadian
d$ ^8 L4 B# ^' U) r3 pReal Estate Tax practice, Canada benefits from a more conservative investment
( t1 V) k4 }/ tenvironment than the US. "In Canada, institution-dominated markets appear to
- x, U7 X$ T* Hbe avoiding 'transaction mania', but real estate values have reached record* e8 N( ^ r) t, p/ J
highs and a strong economy has accelerated tenant demand for space."0 P- N* S8 F: M+ n) h' r7 K3 Q; C
According to American respondents, a healthy correction south of the( K7 O! H m- z- e
border will likely bypass long-term investors but penalize late-to-the-game$ y& A7 K8 b9 L; q6 B& Q0 g
speculators and overleveraged buyers. Canadian respondents to the survey1 F2 J% c8 B% j& n7 z- V
remain positive about sidestepping any serious impacts of this possible US; d, y& X3 q7 z- a( {5 a% S3 V
correction. Close to 36% view their prospects for profitability in 2008 to be
3 j0 }" s# G7 v7 d% j) ~( A& gvery good and a further 22.4% say they're excellent.
: G) u8 ~# s: \7 T! O' D! y The strongest areas of real estate business activity for Canadian
$ ]1 J0 j; [. T \respondents is predicted to be within real estate services, followed by% j* v; A2 d( f# w! A
commercial/multifamily development and homebuilding/residential land8 v% y* o$ Z: c+ u D Z s
development. All property sectors share positive prospects across the country
0 C1 G+ O D2 J: f2 p. \especially industrial and retail with respondents, on average, stating
{: u* I0 w9 [7 N+ }( F" M; k( Ddevelopment prospects are expected to be modestly good to good. The) p' t" M3 ^4 }) m
residential for-sale market is also expected to fair well, but might need to
0 z. \7 ?. @1 c- m7 Ztake a breather as homebuilders cannot keep up with the current pace and
9 y. f! {7 N$ M8 O7 csingle-family housing looks overpriced.
/ o; }$ D# |' V8 B7 H Office stock is seeing limited inventories and dated product fill up with
. ]: _; P+ B/ T2 Z4 itenants. Except for Montreal, where office vacancies are nearing 9%. Canadian
+ Q( p! T6 k; B1 Y H( B+ emetropolitan areas boast below 5% vacancies, and rents have room to push
7 A0 h: S% q2 T2 shigher. The survey is also showing that costs and land scarcity is limiting
) r+ j% X6 a4 {( Rnew development. Hotel investment and development prospects are modestly good,# E$ F: ~) o/ w& |& M) B
and most respondents rate this sector either a buy or a hold. Rental
6 U- a$ Y) H1 n1 K4 Uapartments are doing well in major cities with high immigration flows. Primary
% R$ m& w. @: y. z2 [western cities - Vancouver, Calgary, and Edmonton - are veering toward housing" S# L0 u! Q: ^& n3 z
shortages as workers, attracted by a plethora of well-paying jobs, pour into
* V" L) _0 G: ~the energy zone. Apartment occupancies are soaring in these areas. Development
* h! V( w' J7 ^+ Zin other regions remains difficult because of costs and land scarcity.) q9 B9 T1 Q1 [: v
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Canadian Markets to Watch
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The report comments on how Canadians like to live and work in central
4 W9 w# N) e0 Q5 b6 L1 acities, as long as they can afford it. If housing is too pricey in 24-hour
2 J2 G1 K* y; O) F4 F' S, }+ `neighbourhoods, people move to inner-ring suburbs or beyond and commute back1 f1 D" o5 |" D7 f
into the cores. Investors, especially the institutions, are concentrated in' p1 ?. d5 b) t$ ]
downtown areas too. Planners and developers focus on infill and more vertical
, O! g% d0 F, A( B8 |) e( n9 Nprojects, which reinforce the urban cores. The hot-growth energy cities out2 o0 [0 }" w$ Z+ e( A
west - Calgary and Edmonton - score the highest ratings for investment
0 ^- p6 l4 s9 m8 Zprospects, development, and for-sale housing, although it is not certain2 z Y( R0 b, k6 j; @
whether the recent announcements on royalties will have any effect on this.6 r5 ^$ e' `& l4 L* c5 X" t
Toronto, Canada's premier global pathway city, and Vancouver also have high# ]( n3 q& O/ ~9 {. V+ g' V
ratings. Ottawa and Montreal follow, with Halifax lagging.5 V7 q" v4 p* `
% ]/ @1 c* A# n" z( ~2 X Calgary/Edmonton
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; A0 B; A4 x/ e! U2 }5 }% A' G Calgary is the Canada's "resource" capital and North America's number-one
& I, b3 ?- o- \! Sboomtown. Survey respondents foresee strong buys for all sectors: 53.5% give a
/ w1 E( v+ S9 c+ ?5 m2 hbuy recommendation for Hotel Property, 52.8% for Industrial/Distribution,
0 E/ w" y4 o& {+ q$ ]& [48.1% for Retail and Apartment Residential and 44.6% for Office Property.
0 ], Z @0 P" I/ D4 `; ZFurthermore, on average the majority of respondents see Calgary For-Sale
& ]& r! B# e1 f% ?1 T, AHomebuilding prospects as very good. Edmonton is closely mimicking the
* M8 A- {8 }) D* r" g8 h0 h0 SCalgary-style growth wave and as long as demand for energy resources stays8 v! _6 j l, |8 e' J, B
strong, this market will continue to do well.% u8 x1 {! }, X7 c
2 u! w. U6 O/ T) }) t0 } Vancouver
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$ }: K( X, R. b* D& b: X' p Z Vancouver's diversified economy is roaring, the mining industry is
% ?/ k/ {9 B% H9 [ Abooming and the city provides a large port and a high-tech center. Outrageous; N7 ~% ?% ] B3 F
real estate prices frustrate homebuyers and commercial investors and the
% K( P0 S" y0 n8 gmarket is extremely hard to crack. The 2010 Winter Olympic Games is also a
5 r1 t& c6 ^9 O# ~; B5 A7 Mgrowth driver and accordingly 44.7% of respondents give Vancouver a buy t9 h( ]1 v8 n* n0 _. T
recommendation for Hotel Property. A further 43.5% give a buy Retail, 41.3%
; C! f$ Y8 d# Afor Industrial/Distribution and 36.7% for Office Property followed by 34.1%
9 N, @! I! b& J7 x$ z- ^for Apartment Residential property. Vancouver also ranks in the good to very2 ~0 n' b- t* f$ f3 [" c& C1 f
good mark for for-sale homebuilding prospects.
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Toronto
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Toronto ranks as a major global pathway destination, 24-hour city, and) J% |% z; U: G: D X' x
manufacturing hub. Compared with other national financial centers, the city is* I2 w" r. m- O6 b0 r/ |' A$ R
relatively inexpensive. However, the rising loonie is hurting manufacturing
+ K% f- p8 X( ^industries, and clouds over the US economy threaten to stall out momentum.
. c! D, n X% j- E" nThree new office towers are under construction, adding 3 million new square1 y1 O5 X" m/ ~# r M
feet of office space. Notably, Office (49.1%), Industrial (46.2%) and. s) [+ B+ ?7 u1 R6 e
Apartments (40.8%) are given solid buys.
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Montreal
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8 e p; f! g0 t Montreal continues to face concerns about market stability and overall
. L& v: A( W# m7 }growth prospects as major companies no longer choose it as a place to set up
# S& l/ B1 \6 h n0 b/ wshop. But, plenty of government offices fill space. Of the larger cities in' H9 ^: H2 g, J
Canada, Montreal ranks lowest as a "buy" recommendation in all real estate
( S4 G/ O- _+ S0 ^' ]sectors. However, respondents generally rated all Montreal real estate sectors
5 L! K. @( U; ]- k/ V# ~higher as a "hold" recommendation.
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2 O: t5 O7 a! G0 _ The report notes that best bets for investors for the coming years
) K* E6 }8 E* v8 P& O; ginclude a focus on all property sectors in the high-growth western energy D# r& T' M" |9 H+ k: V
markets, hold on central business district office space, develop infill condos. G/ n( k3 V0 I* N) U# r2 b
near subways stops in Toronto, buy infill sites wherever you can and invest N, ~% a+ s8 Y
overseas. Potter concludes, "Domestic opportunities are too limited at current
; v N- z4 \# g) v% ]( i% J/ Gprices."& X6 c8 u5 f" R2 Y2 ?1 ?
A copy of Emerging Trends in Real Estate(R) 2008 is available at2 w) W8 C: W) w* G2 f5 X2 _8 k$ T- }
www.uli.org or www.pwc.com/imre." |! P1 `, p6 n# J) z
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About PricewaterhouseCoopers4 _* n4 H, R" q
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PricewaterhouseCoopers (www.pwc.com) provides industry-focused assurance,; }0 c4 Q7 x; \% S8 `9 v) y
tax and advisory services to build public trust and enhance value for its, z9 S$ k; r* Q Z5 \) m
clients and their stakeholders. More than 140,000 people in 149 countries
; Z/ g$ _- m3 L/ o6 H" U6 wacross our network share their thinking, experience and solutions to develop6 A/ z4 a% J) ]
fresh perspectives and practical advice. Now celebrating 100 years of
" D0 K7 u! m8 p8 v x7 iexcellence in Canada, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP (www.pwc.com/ca) and its5 A6 }9 r& J! N) i0 l" W
related entities have more than 5,200 partners and staff in offices across the" @3 u! e# _8 N: d6 o4 G: e9 [" V
country.: f& H. g. n9 l1 N" u5 ]
"PricewaterhouseCoopers" refers to PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, an Ontario
# a& Y) N' M: U0 Plimited liability partnership, or, as the context requires, the _% R# Q: z) f
PricewaterhouseCoopers global network or other member firms of the network,
0 ?; h* l3 i$ \8 Weach of which is a separate and independent legal entity.
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About the Urban Land Institute, n9 ]) P7 y# F
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The Urban Land Institute (www.uli.org) is a nonprofit education and8 h7 d; U7 f- o, F+ \8 l
research institute supported by its members. Its mission is to provide
, B' o1 O+ |; j: M/ u S Lleadership in the responsible use of land and in sustaining and creating
, M Q+ }8 q: m/ A. Qthriving communities worldwide. Established in 1936, the Institute has more0 x; w" r/ j5 H+ b1 z, Y
than 38,000 members representing all aspects of land use and development
: D8 g5 y2 p3 L, y+ w) h6 b- `disciplines.
; g& }) v9 r) i5 j The Urban Land Institute is an active and growing organization in Canada.
_- w9 i. [2 E/ Z/ U% S* R. J" G, \+ ^With nearly 700 members across the country, Canada's first ULI District7 m& R! d4 S2 w& _# B A
Council was established in Toronto in 2005 and a second District Council is6 W* C# B& X, S P
now being formed in British Columbia. The Toronto District Council will be
3 X3 t& m0 M" M$ _1 F# [8 nhosting a special event on Emerging Trends in Real Estate on November 20th,! T9 {- Q( A: Y2 y* `( H; |
2007, featuring Jonathan Miller, the principal author of the report, Blake) s) P5 ? t$ x' x! l1 ~ Y2 ]
Hutcheson, President of CB Richard Ellis Canada Ltd., and George Carras,4 n7 O0 P( o5 H9 b
President of RealNet Canada Inc. For more information on this event, please6 ^- s0 R7 i6 g
call the Toronto District Council Coordinator at (647) 258-0017, or look on; c( c) w6 [ b0 G
the web at www.uli.org/events/index.cfm?id=3066.% A6 ~# F1 [- U- K1 @7 c
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' [" H& x7 i) f0 c6 U0 _; g
9 m, q; X9 f5 F$ A0 ^' L9 g& JFor further information: Carolyn Forest, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP,
6 |# j6 h) S% V( B' |5 K(416) 814-5730, carolyn.forest@ca.pwc.com3 H2 w% x8 H$ w
http://www.newswire.ca/en/releas ... r2007/05/c4080.html
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