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Attention Real Estate Reporters:
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Despite US housing woes Canadian real estate remains upbeat
! o$ x% K; N9 U TORONTO, Nov. 5 /CNW/ - Leading real estate experts are predicting the US' Y' w4 t. Z+ H) M# c2 t4 ?( K
commercial real estate market will slow in 2008 and follow a similar pattern" p' C* Q: f3 e4 D$ {
as the current residential market. However, according to the annual Emerging
9 ], c# e1 s, J' j! v; |Trends in Real Estate 2008 report, released by PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC)
9 d' N/ K+ x5 ~ C7 {* o: A! u5 n* Hand the Urban Land Institute (ULI), their Canadian counterparts are much more
* m$ c! i P7 p( c% C% ] B- \upbeat.
" u: r- l% Y9 j# X0 L; m) h Now in its 29th year, Emerging Trends is the oldest, most highly regarded
5 l6 K; `$ A& eannual industry outlook for the real estate industry. The report reflects$ Z+ k) g% i0 R2 N+ F! V
interviews with and surveys of more than 600 of the industry's leading real
+ J3 ^0 [; |( Xestate experts, including investors, developers, property company) ~! a7 k, a6 D8 w
representatives, lenders, brokers and consultants in both Canada and the US.
3 P* g& V7 `4 ?- KOther versions of this report are conducted in countries around the world
) R- v3 l/ B! r: sincluding Asia Pacific and Europe. q, T U. F2 d7 N6 ] S1 I
According to Chris Potter, PwC partner and leader of the firm's Canadian
Q2 [; x% N0 u' F0 MReal Estate Tax practice, Canada benefits from a more conservative investment Y6 r0 Y6 x* ]: e
environment than the US. "In Canada, institution-dominated markets appear to' E. s8 X* @5 V
be avoiding 'transaction mania', but real estate values have reached record
4 ^( @) ~5 Z$ b) k0 g0 fhighs and a strong economy has accelerated tenant demand for space."; M* v- N$ l. f/ ~
According to American respondents, a healthy correction south of the
k' e: i4 ?, N. g" X- f) kborder will likely bypass long-term investors but penalize late-to-the-game. i* ?" R T. g7 I) S+ a0 A
speculators and overleveraged buyers. Canadian respondents to the survey' R8 a8 P' s7 [5 A# X% U
remain positive about sidestepping any serious impacts of this possible US
8 `) H& r, M7 f: Hcorrection. Close to 36% view their prospects for profitability in 2008 to be% [; w+ x( S# ^( l4 U1 X" G
very good and a further 22.4% say they're excellent.
3 b. S/ f2 t6 ^ The strongest areas of real estate business activity for Canadian
- s! R- a/ e( |8 J) I' J' lrespondents is predicted to be within real estate services, followed by
$ g( u: o" O5 ~( z7 ^! H) Q) Qcommercial/multifamily development and homebuilding/residential land
7 N. V- Y; i# c3 Ndevelopment. All property sectors share positive prospects across the country
5 G; h4 R" h7 e! h+ M9 ^especially industrial and retail with respondents, on average, stating" ~, ~ e2 u+ F& {0 w- }+ J& Y
development prospects are expected to be modestly good to good. The
, t. J5 I" I# T! f" o- J8 S, vresidential for-sale market is also expected to fair well, but might need to
( \! `0 l. a, K% xtake a breather as homebuilders cannot keep up with the current pace and
Q0 y/ s4 D& p7 ~5 [; \single-family housing looks overpriced. j& |2 N6 u) B W2 b; J
Office stock is seeing limited inventories and dated product fill up with
( v" S5 m: B' A0 E' J6 qtenants. Except for Montreal, where office vacancies are nearing 9%. Canadian- A+ _+ h, X0 X3 t7 h; [
metropolitan areas boast below 5% vacancies, and rents have room to push
/ x/ ~1 e, O6 Ahigher. The survey is also showing that costs and land scarcity is limiting
4 k7 [* \' h& d& _new development. Hotel investment and development prospects are modestly good,
2 K3 ^6 I' Q5 @& r$ {. _. `and most respondents rate this sector either a buy or a hold. Rental
O3 p F) A# \apartments are doing well in major cities with high immigration flows. Primary) ]3 A$ S r5 t: u/ K
western cities - Vancouver, Calgary, and Edmonton - are veering toward housing
: q# |4 Y& w. R7 G: fshortages as workers, attracted by a plethora of well-paying jobs, pour into
$ N/ w, S$ W0 U' Z& p, @4 b3 Uthe energy zone. Apartment occupancies are soaring in these areas. Development
4 T" A$ N- F1 _* |# t" nin other regions remains difficult because of costs and land scarcity.
, V9 v+ d+ t' l5 c% Q O$ f+ v( c# O! X5 ?( P3 @, ^% @# s) |, j
Canadian Markets to Watch
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, P5 f' I$ V/ e( a* Z+ g( I1 O The report comments on how Canadians like to live and work in central3 z$ N& Z6 \6 K" Z; V4 `
cities, as long as they can afford it. If housing is too pricey in 24-hour
0 ?% T1 ?! {0 f5 ^9 g/ pneighbourhoods, people move to inner-ring suburbs or beyond and commute back
6 v) M. F p; I1 S8 `1 F5 Xinto the cores. Investors, especially the institutions, are concentrated in- u' b. E8 i5 q# u) s
downtown areas too. Planners and developers focus on infill and more vertical
+ q& `1 |' w R: t( aprojects, which reinforce the urban cores. The hot-growth energy cities out
' e4 Z d: j: O4 Z# ~' q2 ewest - Calgary and Edmonton - score the highest ratings for investment! e0 b0 j' L! v6 c) X" x
prospects, development, and for-sale housing, although it is not certain
( o: @! D) ]0 xwhether the recent announcements on royalties will have any effect on this.8 U9 Y! l5 a- k! D) u; U
Toronto, Canada's premier global pathway city, and Vancouver also have high K! F) b" R4 i x7 ~" N) ^/ s
ratings. Ottawa and Montreal follow, with Halifax lagging.
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$ `, Y$ e+ e0 v Calgary/Edmonton
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8 k3 x3 N* T4 N( |% t; ~# B Calgary is the Canada's "resource" capital and North America's number-one
) d0 f9 c/ z# {- kboomtown. Survey respondents foresee strong buys for all sectors: 53.5% give a4 C; ]- D' ?8 w
buy recommendation for Hotel Property, 52.8% for Industrial/Distribution,* L2 F& d9 l% Y' e M1 h
48.1% for Retail and Apartment Residential and 44.6% for Office Property.3 a4 j2 ?0 J7 X0 O
Furthermore, on average the majority of respondents see Calgary For-Sale
6 b E9 C! [* z2 t/ W( dHomebuilding prospects as very good. Edmonton is closely mimicking the
/ `& l( W) D% r0 I4 B+ ACalgary-style growth wave and as long as demand for energy resources stays
2 |4 E+ G0 F; i5 Cstrong, this market will continue to do well.: X# j' z7 s' ?7 F* s
3 `) E, u% F* P; k
Vancouver9 u7 A9 O6 _; F0 b9 j) Z
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Vancouver's diversified economy is roaring, the mining industry is A$ u: a+ T3 g; i& j
booming and the city provides a large port and a high-tech center. Outrageous, R: E+ e6 E8 _2 |
real estate prices frustrate homebuyers and commercial investors and the" ~1 R: r" f) `7 D' [
market is extremely hard to crack. The 2010 Winter Olympic Games is also a
2 X5 g0 S2 J* }& W& M$ ugrowth driver and accordingly 44.7% of respondents give Vancouver a buy
9 G5 [3 p; }% d& a' @ Vrecommendation for Hotel Property. A further 43.5% give a buy Retail, 41.3%
) h% P0 `7 ~ |; ffor Industrial/Distribution and 36.7% for Office Property followed by 34.1%
7 l4 n. p1 j# k$ j j1 vfor Apartment Residential property. Vancouver also ranks in the good to very r0 j1 v. S, |" t& _% B" Q5 Y B8 h
good mark for for-sale homebuilding prospects.
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: ^/ D8 V: A/ S9 ? Toronto# K0 Q& I% g* O4 m9 `! q
$ d; p, ]9 i3 k Toronto ranks as a major global pathway destination, 24-hour city, and4 G: B, ]1 ]4 O
manufacturing hub. Compared with other national financial centers, the city is
0 |" u) }3 I- M) O1 q- T! irelatively inexpensive. However, the rising loonie is hurting manufacturing
7 c; u, M" Y& qindustries, and clouds over the US economy threaten to stall out momentum.
+ S$ }% U# c3 x" t5 E' _; pThree new office towers are under construction, adding 3 million new square
, c E; d* q' e. M1 P4 Dfeet of office space. Notably, Office (49.1%), Industrial (46.2%) and) o+ [4 Y: s( F* _( N9 K A5 }; {
Apartments (40.8%) are given solid buys.
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& o2 [ H' c$ O# | Montreal2 @- a# p' X! ?; T6 n6 J
) `, c9 c3 i7 a Montreal continues to face concerns about market stability and overall9 o" ]' T/ a' O* E( a
growth prospects as major companies no longer choose it as a place to set up
t# n" [" T6 U# F9 c+ hshop. But, plenty of government offices fill space. Of the larger cities in/ I: Q, g9 ~2 z R _
Canada, Montreal ranks lowest as a "buy" recommendation in all real estate: L! f! X" L9 D9 V5 _
sectors. However, respondents generally rated all Montreal real estate sectors
' x; t: I9 V, A- Mhigher as a "hold" recommendation.
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The report notes that best bets for investors for the coming years% H6 D. |% p1 e+ c. ]- r8 w4 y/ d( a
include a focus on all property sectors in the high-growth western energy+ U' J! j& Y! A4 [
markets, hold on central business district office space, develop infill condos
; p2 M' y5 ?8 W+ t/ P: J! Wnear subways stops in Toronto, buy infill sites wherever you can and invest
! {& b2 B: W2 e1 w: J; n1 koverseas. Potter concludes, "Domestic opportunities are too limited at current
0 G. |( L0 R" h( k$ Lprices."
! ]5 D6 R3 N) }3 T A copy of Emerging Trends in Real Estate(R) 2008 is available at; p& o8 X/ i7 Y. H
www.uli.org or www.pwc.com/imre.0 A% y. K; i; ?) }
" x- K' i, L: ?2 N" H9 x About PricewaterhouseCoopers
2 ~. ?* t4 E1 t* g! U. y8 G" C8 f& c$ ^( r+ D+ w
PricewaterhouseCoopers (www.pwc.com) provides industry-focused assurance,
, [& a% O5 }9 a [' u/ T6 ]tax and advisory services to build public trust and enhance value for its
6 d- j7 o" B$ J' Bclients and their stakeholders. More than 140,000 people in 149 countries) y7 u. f" G5 L2 f* E6 {
across our network share their thinking, experience and solutions to develop/ b2 W/ Q# o' N: y/ m
fresh perspectives and practical advice. Now celebrating 100 years of6 G6 Z9 A5 ~4 P( Y; j
excellence in Canada, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP (www.pwc.com/ca) and its! O% n. `# g+ ^: w& B
related entities have more than 5,200 partners and staff in offices across the
; e& V& m( |$ l# Scountry.% f; _$ \) T y* V
"PricewaterhouseCoopers" refers to PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, an Ontario
b0 U. J( N4 V) `9 ylimited liability partnership, or, as the context requires, the: O* h1 R M) m9 h, d
PricewaterhouseCoopers global network or other member firms of the network,
& b4 [# B4 k4 |2 aeach of which is a separate and independent legal entity.
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" ~" ^0 F# H: p; y8 i2 E About the Urban Land Institute
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' D0 F4 E! p a- {9 ~# G The Urban Land Institute (www.uli.org) is a nonprofit education and
2 C% v. n3 i9 n' |research institute supported by its members. Its mission is to provide, _2 C+ B l1 u
leadership in the responsible use of land and in sustaining and creating
S' P, i; f' ?1 o: G: ?thriving communities worldwide. Established in 1936, the Institute has more1 P+ L" {9 T8 F6 G9 t! T8 ]
than 38,000 members representing all aspects of land use and development
% S" t6 N7 x- X# n' Ndisciplines.
& T; B# V" G# V9 h& @% I The Urban Land Institute is an active and growing organization in Canada.
) B9 v, j* h3 x: N" G. b; o" vWith nearly 700 members across the country, Canada's first ULI District
! x) z, e' a7 L' w) e4 f0 K8 f: g! WCouncil was established in Toronto in 2005 and a second District Council is$ c$ t( g- D8 m* S/ d, E( A
now being formed in British Columbia. The Toronto District Council will be/ [* g+ k& H: Q9 C! F7 v% S
hosting a special event on Emerging Trends in Real Estate on November 20th," z" O+ v) g! ?5 O7 ]- q
2007, featuring Jonathan Miller, the principal author of the report, Blake
( W6 N' H8 S n- |$ E8 q5 H x9 X1 ~+ THutcheson, President of CB Richard Ellis Canada Ltd., and George Carras,
+ Y- `( m9 x- Y! e; Z* zPresident of RealNet Canada Inc. For more information on this event, please" k' g: x* c( K t& C8 ~, N
call the Toronto District Council Coordinator at (647) 258-0017, or look on
# t3 T2 C0 ^! Othe web at www.uli.org/events/index.cfm?id=3066.. O2 z. S1 I$ J f5 c5 J% X' A
) Z* d( T/ g$ M; K" r' I
1 E. a/ y" T9 ]& h4 j
5 W4 Z4 l- q1 a# NFor further information: Carolyn Forest, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP,6 ?" z; l- `' j1 v3 i8 I [3 v
(416) 814-5730, carolyn.forest@ca.pwc.com
# l9 p! w& u9 G$ D$ Q4 Dhttp://www.newswire.ca/en/releas ... r2007/05/c4080.html6 Z5 F! L0 U: r
7 P0 R7 l4 n6 T8 O[ 本帖最后由 QWE321 于 2007-11-13 09:08 编辑 ] |
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