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Attention Real Estate Reporters: / O8 x' ~0 v. a2 \5 V) a7 |- L
2 Y% s9 @ ^- U+ b# M- r; E/ I- uDespite US housing woes Canadian real estate remains upbeat
; k! Q G2 O* b! @ TORONTO, Nov. 5 /CNW/ - Leading real estate experts are predicting the US
- m; A! R; s/ x3 pcommercial real estate market will slow in 2008 and follow a similar pattern/ E2 h8 c$ v+ |/ Z! M- ?; z# K
as the current residential market. However, according to the annual Emerging, G" O4 ?" b0 G; u0 A
Trends in Real Estate 2008 report, released by PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC)
7 v" ?1 m4 D2 _# Y. j! |/ n4 ^) land the Urban Land Institute (ULI), their Canadian counterparts are much more
1 y2 F$ K3 D+ ?9 h0 `& G0 y5 L% m! uupbeat.1 R/ z x1 S& L( H4 K
Now in its 29th year, Emerging Trends is the oldest, most highly regarded
8 f7 C2 v$ [4 n' g+ vannual industry outlook for the real estate industry. The report reflects
! O2 f( c1 I9 |/ P$ Kinterviews with and surveys of more than 600 of the industry's leading real
9 x3 R& P$ o8 B0 d l& R, }& [% Eestate experts, including investors, developers, property company
6 c `# z! |7 ^) U' r; Brepresentatives, lenders, brokers and consultants in both Canada and the US.
7 E6 w; ~4 T% _5 OOther versions of this report are conducted in countries around the world
& Z+ P0 V) H) c9 k! d, W* bincluding Asia Pacific and Europe.
- R2 n2 \& j& R According to Chris Potter, PwC partner and leader of the firm's Canadian |+ h; J" C5 b
Real Estate Tax practice, Canada benefits from a more conservative investment/ [" q& g6 K: g+ l
environment than the US. "In Canada, institution-dominated markets appear to; {8 i/ O" h( W# y4 b9 ?5 Y/ S) ^
be avoiding 'transaction mania', but real estate values have reached record' Y( d0 n, B$ {, O# U
highs and a strong economy has accelerated tenant demand for space."* V0 w8 ]% }* S' ^/ a9 @
According to American respondents, a healthy correction south of the
2 z2 V. D; U7 h5 }border will likely bypass long-term investors but penalize late-to-the-game6 m6 D V8 g: t: j3 \7 p) k5 y
speculators and overleveraged buyers. Canadian respondents to the survey. n- D' {+ r# N5 K3 P
remain positive about sidestepping any serious impacts of this possible US
4 R0 R$ L1 Y. q* C$ H4 \# xcorrection. Close to 36% view their prospects for profitability in 2008 to be
$ u0 \5 H+ t" {very good and a further 22.4% say they're excellent.
; W, g* I' i: C5 ] The strongest areas of real estate business activity for Canadian
5 T( r0 q z$ c: arespondents is predicted to be within real estate services, followed by
9 J& }/ S: q. @& Scommercial/multifamily development and homebuilding/residential land
2 ~" t% _2 h& g" Z# Y2 i# Vdevelopment. All property sectors share positive prospects across the country
8 Z1 r+ @# c) n! {especially industrial and retail with respondents, on average, stating
. H/ c1 `. V3 p! O$ r' rdevelopment prospects are expected to be modestly good to good. The1 r7 z. P7 j$ U% C8 O- \" u
residential for-sale market is also expected to fair well, but might need to: ?4 _5 H# x$ h$ y% e
take a breather as homebuilders cannot keep up with the current pace and
( }. ~4 W3 h' B0 m& o! Vsingle-family housing looks overpriced.) _8 A) D+ _4 `5 Q" V" s! I
Office stock is seeing limited inventories and dated product fill up with2 b/ T3 i9 I& l
tenants. Except for Montreal, where office vacancies are nearing 9%. Canadian8 J* T$ h1 V; e
metropolitan areas boast below 5% vacancies, and rents have room to push
9 ^0 H; \' o; q5 _6 Dhigher. The survey is also showing that costs and land scarcity is limiting
6 l0 `4 c0 K f. \new development. Hotel investment and development prospects are modestly good,9 {. K: n$ O& j
and most respondents rate this sector either a buy or a hold. Rental: ?( s2 I4 g( Z' Z
apartments are doing well in major cities with high immigration flows. Primary8 a/ i. D6 q" d# `" H; a
western cities - Vancouver, Calgary, and Edmonton - are veering toward housing p2 u6 _% [' S) H) ~
shortages as workers, attracted by a plethora of well-paying jobs, pour into
3 U3 _7 ^( V7 n; n; Rthe energy zone. Apartment occupancies are soaring in these areas. Development
$ D! D+ b7 F4 R( oin other regions remains difficult because of costs and land scarcity.
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. m' K& r9 T7 _ Canadian Markets to Watch: O. k |/ Q' u
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The report comments on how Canadians like to live and work in central
5 q) G6 }: K2 J( K% f- z. h6 O% }cities, as long as they can afford it. If housing is too pricey in 24-hour
0 ]7 g3 C6 K4 m8 Rneighbourhoods, people move to inner-ring suburbs or beyond and commute back& r8 W" i8 m( V7 O/ ?' l: ~
into the cores. Investors, especially the institutions, are concentrated in
! y: T! f9 r: bdowntown areas too. Planners and developers focus on infill and more vertical
" s$ P# `$ `8 j8 Vprojects, which reinforce the urban cores. The hot-growth energy cities out# ~/ T7 V$ N8 Q! N
west - Calgary and Edmonton - score the highest ratings for investment
+ ]; S1 V) y' a# j) I; ]* i6 q* |, W7 ~prospects, development, and for-sale housing, although it is not certain
2 ]3 f/ v- g) T) p) r/ g& Kwhether the recent announcements on royalties will have any effect on this.
& e$ @8 E' s$ P% l6 BToronto, Canada's premier global pathway city, and Vancouver also have high
* k- v% v( S6 V3 m; ?3 N Aratings. Ottawa and Montreal follow, with Halifax lagging.4 k% Z. \8 ]* r' P; v. | h! C
% h5 D9 w/ \: I) e2 w8 ?/ u+ L Calgary/Edmonton
) ^) }4 R/ P2 o4 z2 N5 H' x) U+ _/ W
Calgary is the Canada's "resource" capital and North America's number-one* n: S# W; F% N0 l
boomtown. Survey respondents foresee strong buys for all sectors: 53.5% give a3 a1 z- b" \5 F& q2 _
buy recommendation for Hotel Property, 52.8% for Industrial/Distribution,: H" W- R) s/ O. t; `) {- P* ]% S% n
48.1% for Retail and Apartment Residential and 44.6% for Office Property./ u0 L: i/ j/ ]4 b
Furthermore, on average the majority of respondents see Calgary For-Sale* y8 t2 I9 W" v
Homebuilding prospects as very good. Edmonton is closely mimicking the
3 p+ Z) i. D2 G3 m7 f7 ICalgary-style growth wave and as long as demand for energy resources stays
# z0 G! x. b- v3 Q- [strong, this market will continue to do well.. i5 N6 U" y) E3 n3 O
8 ?2 M/ n+ {4 J3 H" b& E Vancouver
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$ A) g7 s. f1 T( ~6 V Vancouver's diversified economy is roaring, the mining industry is4 v3 L: ?9 t2 k' h% _/ j. N$ s
booming and the city provides a large port and a high-tech center. Outrageous/ V$ }; o0 c1 M0 X. j, Q! a
real estate prices frustrate homebuyers and commercial investors and the' M, |$ ]7 d6 m/ ]8 U8 P/ c
market is extremely hard to crack. The 2010 Winter Olympic Games is also a
~( p b( k7 Sgrowth driver and accordingly 44.7% of respondents give Vancouver a buy
4 E2 M0 V- `! ?* l4 @1 z9 p$ M2 krecommendation for Hotel Property. A further 43.5% give a buy Retail, 41.3%4 L, A6 a9 K8 M/ [' J$ q
for Industrial/Distribution and 36.7% for Office Property followed by 34.1%% {7 W: c3 j5 N7 b/ X
for Apartment Residential property. Vancouver also ranks in the good to very
' H2 d7 a% l; q, s8 Agood mark for for-sale homebuilding prospects.
4 k5 a, u2 \. O& T- y. [# g9 g' ]0 Z1 ?
Toronto
- j7 C" d: u8 q' P0 x3 T1 |& ]! X# \( a+ r
Toronto ranks as a major global pathway destination, 24-hour city, and
3 M' i: \7 ~8 F8 T9 tmanufacturing hub. Compared with other national financial centers, the city is
: ` e% h9 o7 u( F' trelatively inexpensive. However, the rising loonie is hurting manufacturing
, }# ^+ J6 R6 k# S* g" _9 A! \industries, and clouds over the US economy threaten to stall out momentum.
1 r1 u6 s1 C% ]1 D, w/ l( @. G! qThree new office towers are under construction, adding 3 million new square$ ?, Y+ w! a' R9 ]7 y8 e
feet of office space. Notably, Office (49.1%), Industrial (46.2%) and' a; |. `9 ?% }# B0 E
Apartments (40.8%) are given solid buys.
2 j2 {" i, z! W/ A S9 \# j
8 I: X" k0 s8 S5 a Montreal
3 r; b5 }4 g. ?$ A0 W6 S% F, J" B; h, M3 I: X
Montreal continues to face concerns about market stability and overall% q/ k9 Y1 _# ]' f5 B3 Q1 N6 r
growth prospects as major companies no longer choose it as a place to set up( `! C% x- e1 L% ?, I) I3 b
shop. But, plenty of government offices fill space. Of the larger cities in
6 C, {1 Y; \- s; X& l" o P gCanada, Montreal ranks lowest as a "buy" recommendation in all real estate
3 X7 p- i5 q' [5 vsectors. However, respondents generally rated all Montreal real estate sectors
; }5 D0 p5 W$ ^higher as a "hold" recommendation.
. D1 d, W P. w0 B- U$ |$ T& Z: S: N% ? r) s9 R( w, |/ |( u. R9 }
The report notes that best bets for investors for the coming years
% z4 I# A+ G7 ^3 A R6 f$ @include a focus on all property sectors in the high-growth western energy
- m" s( t" J% b" j! Z% fmarkets, hold on central business district office space, develop infill condos
3 m/ L n& J. Mnear subways stops in Toronto, buy infill sites wherever you can and invest
/ A% G2 }3 J+ ~' r( [" poverseas. Potter concludes, "Domestic opportunities are too limited at current
$ X% s3 [& G$ E O8 \prices."* E1 v' o2 y4 N b* D
A copy of Emerging Trends in Real Estate(R) 2008 is available at
# D7 h/ |7 v: r O& iwww.uli.org or www.pwc.com/imre.
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About PricewaterhouseCoopers
: P7 g8 p) z- M2 N5 l& Q: l% |2 P& g# N1 J# p
PricewaterhouseCoopers (www.pwc.com) provides industry-focused assurance,) l' x5 ]% i; O3 F1 t
tax and advisory services to build public trust and enhance value for its
9 _0 R; ]$ T! N. \$ @3 |6 tclients and their stakeholders. More than 140,000 people in 149 countries
: u( W8 B7 H" J! a! gacross our network share their thinking, experience and solutions to develop
" {2 @2 F4 C: H; W, xfresh perspectives and practical advice. Now celebrating 100 years of- r6 J& \" A- d1 ? R q1 `8 n3 c
excellence in Canada, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP (www.pwc.com/ca) and its
3 c9 P9 }1 f% l* E% ?0 orelated entities have more than 5,200 partners and staff in offices across the
3 i% G4 |% |4 p' q6 d7 B, xcountry.
9 Y' E- t* V" ^: ^ s6 Y "PricewaterhouseCoopers" refers to PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, an Ontario$ U. x8 k# R8 @
limited liability partnership, or, as the context requires, the
# o; w j0 D, Y, O2 MPricewaterhouseCoopers global network or other member firms of the network,
9 ?9 N5 `: ~+ W) y1 e* Y/ ^5 ?each of which is a separate and independent legal entity." y- j5 h, p! E, S* y
1 f& X0 R6 [5 k4 K+ W About the Urban Land Institute: B. W! n: c4 u" ^5 A _6 w/ d* G
( I& O1 z- P6 b- @/ l
The Urban Land Institute (www.uli.org) is a nonprofit education and1 h: N8 b2 H4 m( ]
research institute supported by its members. Its mission is to provide( z; g9 g4 A( ~" Y
leadership in the responsible use of land and in sustaining and creating8 b. d# k# u3 T: P/ A! w7 W+ `- z0 X
thriving communities worldwide. Established in 1936, the Institute has more
& ~% h. M, ~+ _: A$ _+ jthan 38,000 members representing all aspects of land use and development! {1 t$ j: I9 D( S* d
disciplines.6 [* B( p5 b) a, A; F W
The Urban Land Institute is an active and growing organization in Canada.
. S/ r. V( e J3 Y7 x3 T: tWith nearly 700 members across the country, Canada's first ULI District) o( i R, l/ a2 P
Council was established in Toronto in 2005 and a second District Council is
1 p2 o9 n( ?% S" K! L9 V# ]* mnow being formed in British Columbia. The Toronto District Council will be5 g) y: s! f8 @7 ]- f
hosting a special event on Emerging Trends in Real Estate on November 20th,
* U8 H5 w) I( Z6 O# f! _7 T2007, featuring Jonathan Miller, the principal author of the report, Blake
$ {6 g8 ^! ~. s/ j% XHutcheson, President of CB Richard Ellis Canada Ltd., and George Carras,
9 V8 f/ P& g: v. r( k+ H1 XPresident of RealNet Canada Inc. For more information on this event, please
- ?3 q2 x9 _6 q( |$ x$ z9 @call the Toronto District Council Coordinator at (647) 258-0017, or look on g! G/ s$ d, D/ g9 b
the web at www.uli.org/events/index.cfm?id=3066.
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S$ M/ t. ]9 s; d7 uFor further information: Carolyn Forest, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP,
# O4 Z+ ?$ _6 ?5 `( X5 r4 M(416) 814-5730, carolyn.forest@ca.pwc.com- ^! `* |8 N" H4 G6 {
http://www.newswire.ca/en/releas ... r2007/05/c4080.html6 h" C( c. a: \4 ~' F; i
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