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Attention Real Estate Reporters: 3 c1 T) x6 B, b2 t! z4 h1 k7 Q
E/ b! A! O7 k9 H( r
Despite US housing woes Canadian real estate remains upbeat
) J& A/ m. P% \+ {, A4 k TORONTO, Nov. 5 /CNW/ - Leading real estate experts are predicting the US' M& P; I7 B; L8 v
commercial real estate market will slow in 2008 and follow a similar pattern0 F( e; [& \3 s5 u: z2 [
as the current residential market. However, according to the annual Emerging
2 ?: r$ {" B7 g0 n* ?0 |' s) vTrends in Real Estate 2008 report, released by PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC)4 y& A: R+ r5 E5 v) F7 {4 D$ ^# x
and the Urban Land Institute (ULI), their Canadian counterparts are much more& U7 v; B# K& Z* @, L
upbeat.
/ m& F& n6 W) i+ t. X Now in its 29th year, Emerging Trends is the oldest, most highly regarded
9 o$ u( g* I% N- ?* ]& f( Zannual industry outlook for the real estate industry. The report reflects
B; Y5 `9 c0 ~interviews with and surveys of more than 600 of the industry's leading real
/ q3 E# M) o5 N0 a6 iestate experts, including investors, developers, property company
8 j" R, }7 g; D3 rrepresentatives, lenders, brokers and consultants in both Canada and the US.
. J% v$ g; T& C K+ E0 KOther versions of this report are conducted in countries around the world; `+ o3 ~' O! S3 |! s; _8 `) l2 @( i" q
including Asia Pacific and Europe.& }+ _ R# S9 {3 N
According to Chris Potter, PwC partner and leader of the firm's Canadian
6 e* v) S2 z! \6 I, Q- t7 nReal Estate Tax practice, Canada benefits from a more conservative investment
: |/ Y" x3 C, i ]' Wenvironment than the US. "In Canada, institution-dominated markets appear to
" D! }* s: R/ h+ E' ]3 S. M! Abe avoiding 'transaction mania', but real estate values have reached record0 `0 j5 M ?1 X, o4 a
highs and a strong economy has accelerated tenant demand for space."2 s' X0 F. b, f
According to American respondents, a healthy correction south of the/ m1 O3 f) L0 F# c' T/ Z. Z1 c
border will likely bypass long-term investors but penalize late-to-the-game8 X7 Q" w4 e; Q/ [. `; U2 {* O
speculators and overleveraged buyers. Canadian respondents to the survey- Y! G; i* d) R/ p% T7 b
remain positive about sidestepping any serious impacts of this possible US ]/ v, y7 p I- @4 o# ~
correction. Close to 36% view their prospects for profitability in 2008 to be5 Z/ Q7 p% {% S7 l6 s
very good and a further 22.4% say they're excellent.
) [2 c+ @8 @5 Y6 P Q# b2 H The strongest areas of real estate business activity for Canadian
4 Z8 B$ j# P7 ]% i$ xrespondents is predicted to be within real estate services, followed by
/ V& t$ G0 j: y1 ~commercial/multifamily development and homebuilding/residential land2 ^& a! c; f0 g
development. All property sectors share positive prospects across the country
4 h) k2 g# h/ {: h1 G2 [especially industrial and retail with respondents, on average, stating1 k3 e1 G$ Z. w
development prospects are expected to be modestly good to good. The
, s3 U+ ?" T8 w4 y- V% u# f2 k% uresidential for-sale market is also expected to fair well, but might need to5 P1 T( e. X& `5 k; q! p. r
take a breather as homebuilders cannot keep up with the current pace and+ H4 l+ o C7 N+ ^0 ]9 ?' W
single-family housing looks overpriced.
7 R- Y- M# |# s, B" M Office stock is seeing limited inventories and dated product fill up with
( l, ]! q% a/ \$ w6 gtenants. Except for Montreal, where office vacancies are nearing 9%. Canadian
5 D1 X& u9 Y8 ametropolitan areas boast below 5% vacancies, and rents have room to push
( p! N3 f0 q8 u4 u; ]4 \5 Rhigher. The survey is also showing that costs and land scarcity is limiting
$ Y$ H5 d& Q c+ Y7 z( e1 l- R: Dnew development. Hotel investment and development prospects are modestly good,
- {7 y) n8 H8 i& }( c: c. T* xand most respondents rate this sector either a buy or a hold. Rental" ^/ J% E" W) f- w' [
apartments are doing well in major cities with high immigration flows. Primary7 |- a5 B8 h' K/ L! h9 R. b# c
western cities - Vancouver, Calgary, and Edmonton - are veering toward housing
0 E8 t% X$ ?: l5 W" lshortages as workers, attracted by a plethora of well-paying jobs, pour into3 H# I5 d$ d7 I5 {: n9 i
the energy zone. Apartment occupancies are soaring in these areas. Development
+ O3 Y* E2 q2 P$ v* _. [9 Bin other regions remains difficult because of costs and land scarcity.
" X6 `6 y3 J# w/ P0 T, ?9 r4 Q6 \$ f/ z
Canadian Markets to Watch
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The report comments on how Canadians like to live and work in central
5 t1 a5 H+ a" ycities, as long as they can afford it. If housing is too pricey in 24-hour, i- B4 G$ ]5 S" d- a0 A2 w2 \
neighbourhoods, people move to inner-ring suburbs or beyond and commute back2 B3 ~$ n0 ] S! i* E8 L& B
into the cores. Investors, especially the institutions, are concentrated in
5 A6 X: }8 \ I- Y" I- E5 Ddowntown areas too. Planners and developers focus on infill and more vertical
& p! l" p0 s* sprojects, which reinforce the urban cores. The hot-growth energy cities out
* j+ `3 O5 z3 X3 Z. b, H) O; O! owest - Calgary and Edmonton - score the highest ratings for investment' L, @5 ?, I5 M& D& X! Y z0 }2 i
prospects, development, and for-sale housing, although it is not certain4 |4 g$ z; M# V, d+ @, Z
whether the recent announcements on royalties will have any effect on this.5 p6 r7 l0 B/ u6 ~+ S+ Y V7 _* \
Toronto, Canada's premier global pathway city, and Vancouver also have high
3 a1 A; ~" K: |( iratings. Ottawa and Montreal follow, with Halifax lagging.5 v* J7 u& f& i: m/ ^
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Calgary/Edmonton# g" I* z& h4 c/ B, ?; Q' B
3 T9 C, I+ h: o8 L- ~# ~4 w
Calgary is the Canada's "resource" capital and North America's number-one
5 ^1 u$ K8 V3 u8 w0 a* J1 |boomtown. Survey respondents foresee strong buys for all sectors: 53.5% give a
6 N4 C, T$ w8 ^buy recommendation for Hotel Property, 52.8% for Industrial/Distribution,
/ ?# i) D* Z, ?/ y& k G48.1% for Retail and Apartment Residential and 44.6% for Office Property.
$ ]; o3 D4 a5 x0 Q5 NFurthermore, on average the majority of respondents see Calgary For-Sale
. r: v3 K/ }6 g5 [1 j o. GHomebuilding prospects as very good. Edmonton is closely mimicking the9 k/ k3 F G: u& Z+ a& `, _6 G
Calgary-style growth wave and as long as demand for energy resources stays
. A1 ~+ s; g3 b9 E. f- hstrong, this market will continue to do well.$ Q# O6 g4 P/ O% m8 G+ |) |( D
2 v' O! [4 V8 C& e/ x3 t2 @" C: Z* n0 w Vancouver4 q6 K- R( y( N5 B
+ D7 ^) `* _6 v$ B3 S3 S
Vancouver's diversified economy is roaring, the mining industry is
! \- q5 u; o( h$ W( `0 b* v% nbooming and the city provides a large port and a high-tech center. Outrageous' A6 E. W8 h& L) \7 i/ w
real estate prices frustrate homebuyers and commercial investors and the1 w. G( ?! ^% _- U
market is extremely hard to crack. The 2010 Winter Olympic Games is also a+ i g; p4 }% Q* H/ ]- ?
growth driver and accordingly 44.7% of respondents give Vancouver a buy8 R" c9 f# d4 K; u
recommendation for Hotel Property. A further 43.5% give a buy Retail, 41.3%
7 Q& `8 s. J4 Lfor Industrial/Distribution and 36.7% for Office Property followed by 34.1%
) ?5 J/ e5 {9 Wfor Apartment Residential property. Vancouver also ranks in the good to very; S9 ?# v4 S/ j) _$ v3 B. @
good mark for for-sale homebuilding prospects.
3 f& H+ r; S1 i- A1 L b b. E
1 ~& _3 }& o( k1 W( v4 j Toronto
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f, g W7 N& D7 { Toronto ranks as a major global pathway destination, 24-hour city, and
# E9 d/ y/ h8 Z7 e1 nmanufacturing hub. Compared with other national financial centers, the city is
! @( c. U" h* z! s: q v7 ?+ hrelatively inexpensive. However, the rising loonie is hurting manufacturing
0 {+ _, `6 o" R3 A, f% {industries, and clouds over the US economy threaten to stall out momentum.
3 z( D G3 x& g* GThree new office towers are under construction, adding 3 million new square/ Q0 c) j; h ]. r
feet of office space. Notably, Office (49.1%), Industrial (46.2%) and
3 u8 @' t q' T: r4 y. L: L. ]8 n0 RApartments (40.8%) are given solid buys." N2 @5 ~# [8 Y, [! p
9 c! B* x7 o; L4 D Montreal; S6 o1 W6 `0 W8 K) ]1 p7 Q
! b( X9 @* f7 d; P1 A9 p
Montreal continues to face concerns about market stability and overall
/ C3 S2 c$ I5 I" l5 n4 z9 H1 ugrowth prospects as major companies no longer choose it as a place to set up
4 ]6 B9 l- H: o9 g) U# R+ eshop. But, plenty of government offices fill space. Of the larger cities in: o) U% @0 I* O7 e Q5 ?* ~
Canada, Montreal ranks lowest as a "buy" recommendation in all real estate* B- h- ?3 n5 Q2 s/ q0 ]
sectors. However, respondents generally rated all Montreal real estate sectors
: Y; I! B5 \) F1 K5 vhigher as a "hold" recommendation.3 e& `7 k7 I: ~3 @4 H, f* ~
) }8 Z$ N: g) Q2 S- @& s The report notes that best bets for investors for the coming years2 D! B+ j- P* T4 q, n* V
include a focus on all property sectors in the high-growth western energy
* u, C7 k9 F. T; T" @markets, hold on central business district office space, develop infill condos
0 N+ g, A2 d1 J% R, Lnear subways stops in Toronto, buy infill sites wherever you can and invest
4 _: e# A0 S. Y- e# J5 M0 boverseas. Potter concludes, "Domestic opportunities are too limited at current
! i& K* z6 W9 u2 Nprices."5 s( F4 l9 l3 c5 i* A l
A copy of Emerging Trends in Real Estate(R) 2008 is available at/ R( M G* f7 j( _+ z+ r8 X$ ~
www.uli.org or www.pwc.com/imre.
0 P: e( j2 K5 g/ C( k& H/ x( }
0 H) L. }; a" y9 ? Q About PricewaterhouseCoopers3 G# `9 b7 n' D
1 P4 |9 ]7 z: O0 l/ l
PricewaterhouseCoopers (www.pwc.com) provides industry-focused assurance,# I7 s8 R7 N. Z& W
tax and advisory services to build public trust and enhance value for its
6 ?5 U' @1 u- J% M; \# vclients and their stakeholders. More than 140,000 people in 149 countries
) Z+ ?4 I" B1 \ Y2 v1 x {) Bacross our network share their thinking, experience and solutions to develop5 g) m" W+ q+ ^. Y
fresh perspectives and practical advice. Now celebrating 100 years of
$ c( A# i1 z. X* y/ i( e0 Kexcellence in Canada, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP (www.pwc.com/ca) and its& p& n& \- ]) Y$ [
related entities have more than 5,200 partners and staff in offices across the- s0 L; i7 O2 j1 W7 G8 B
country.
4 T2 A) F9 H& L+ m0 ^) ]+ g5 v3 g "PricewaterhouseCoopers" refers to PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, an Ontario
" m3 }. ^# a* v: R8 ^& H6 {limited liability partnership, or, as the context requires, the
# Q& ^) U- z/ ~) z2 D! tPricewaterhouseCoopers global network or other member firms of the network,4 [6 X2 b/ n5 b4 ^
each of which is a separate and independent legal entity.) s0 [! l$ U( z
0 h8 M# C( W) L About the Urban Land Institute3 d6 c* o0 @0 t5 x' h; G! J
: |7 R6 Z# M7 S
The Urban Land Institute (www.uli.org) is a nonprofit education and# }0 v0 _, i9 _# j
research institute supported by its members. Its mission is to provide# D3 l& w& {; ^& k* r2 g
leadership in the responsible use of land and in sustaining and creating
1 B, q6 j l; \ G. \) \: Athriving communities worldwide. Established in 1936, the Institute has more
$ h6 {8 j3 f- d) o; [than 38,000 members representing all aspects of land use and development5 }' O" V/ D' H( I5 }5 Q$ ]
disciplines.
8 T& ~( ~9 o% n; X The Urban Land Institute is an active and growing organization in Canada.
7 S$ m) e& h% u- p; o& e7 AWith nearly 700 members across the country, Canada's first ULI District) S# d' ]1 k* N8 e, F% N
Council was established in Toronto in 2005 and a second District Council is
( N3 |' q4 a( q. u1 K" R. lnow being formed in British Columbia. The Toronto District Council will be
, n8 B7 U& f9 v7 {4 H; zhosting a special event on Emerging Trends in Real Estate on November 20th,+ o8 I/ B5 M. O9 J
2007, featuring Jonathan Miller, the principal author of the report, Blake
+ L# _3 M- j! ?) M" j) u& @% UHutcheson, President of CB Richard Ellis Canada Ltd., and George Carras,
6 b* z6 K3 Z* _ EPresident of RealNet Canada Inc. For more information on this event, please! L! v& _" a: A7 ]7 }/ ?! t
call the Toronto District Council Coordinator at (647) 258-0017, or look on/ n5 d' y' C! O# X/ ?7 {
the web at www.uli.org/events/index.cfm?id=3066.
9 S' ]* P' {% X l' c2 {1 i) i. {* U0 a. I
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For further information: Carolyn Forest, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP,
' o+ z; ?; a% U' ^7 K: N(416) 814-5730, carolyn.forest@ca.pwc.com9 n5 Z$ \6 y/ A/ [3 @* W( |+ W6 o4 o
http://www.newswire.ca/en/releas ... r2007/05/c4080.html
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