No Crash for Canada Real Market, CIBC said it again

catty

Canadians haven't put themselves deep enough in debt to cause a U.S.-style housing market bust, a CIBC World Markets economist says.
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In a report issued Tuesday, Benjamin Tal asks: "Where's the trigger for a Canadian house price crash?" He concludes there isn't one.

2 w! e! v; I) O+ L) E8 y, H- v/ `; y! G"To be sure, house prices in Canada will continue to ease in the coming months," he says. "But the triggers that led to a free fall in Canadian real estate markets in the early 1990s and today in U.S. markets are nowhere to be found."

/ P( b9 @3 d8 o$ Q0 `! w% NAs he sees it, Canadian home buyers never got as reckless as Americans.

5 k' g) A0 `" P$ O3 g"By almost any measure, American households entered the current housing crisis from a more vulnerable position relative to their Canadian counterparts — carrying a heavier debt load and a much lighter net worth position. And when it comes to real estate speculation, Canada was not really a player.

3 a. d3 X6 u! j. f"But even more important than the absolute and relative level of debt is the distribution of debt. At the peak of the cycle, subprime and Alt-A mortgages accounted for no less than 33 per cent of originations in the U.S. market. In Canada we estimate that at the peak, non-conforming mortgages reached 5.4 per cent of originations."
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8 z1 H  N! \- `" i, dSubprime mortgages are those given to the least creditworthy borrowers. Alt-A mortgages are considered a step higher, although the category includes so-called liars' loans in which borrowers are not required to verify their earnings or assets.

* y  ~% f0 S- K/ A8 ^- G- e$ pTal says the U.S. meltdown is basically a subprime story.

* i# Z# K8 {* ~"Eradicate subprime from the U.S. housing market and, instead of the most severe house price meltdown since the great depression, you get a trivial moderate cyclical slowing — something along the line of what we are currently experiencing in Canada."
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' e) A! o  H- c1 v# ?+ s, g/ ~当然，历史已经证明CIBC他自己在市场预测上没有信誉拉，现在关键的是哪个是导致灾难的Trigger.
( }+ o- H) {* F& w5 E8 g' x8 ?看到有个同学已经转过次文章啦，没看到，抱歉。
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[ 本帖最后由 catty 于 2008-10-1 09:32 编辑 ]