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Gas prices are rising while crude prices are falling. What gives?
& D8 K$ G! p& h2 k4 l: UPublished: Friday, January 16, 2009 | 5:11 PM ET" c: e o% K. `. l
Canadian Press NewsItem/NewsComponent/NewsLines/ByLine
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/ G9 }, i( z% C& T, QCALGARY - With crude oil prices falling, motorists may wonder why gasoline prices are heading in the other direction.8 b0 K( E* W" n4 W9 I5 E( ?
8 ]7 f# S3 m% [The average Canadian pump price rose to around 81.75 cents per litre Friday - more than three cents more than a week ago, according to the price-tracking website Gasbuddy.com.
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Calgarians were paying on average 81.5 cents per litre - about a four-cent jump in just one day.0 M8 z+ E7 U0 a% \8 d' o
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"I don't actually understand it and I do work in the oil and gas industry, so I'm perplexed about it," said Paul Lawnikanis as he filled up his truck at a Calgary Esso station, which was selling gas for 80.4 cents per litre.
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8 `7 p- f% d; {( S" v9 d4 P. ^, ~But Friday's price is still a welcome respite from the $1.40-level gas many Canadian cities faced during the summer.6 l' E' z- z0 c( ~" g8 a
5 }0 e( @# q) j"I definitely changed my habits in the summer. I was going to go on two road trips, which I did not go on by virtue of the fact that the prices were so high," Lawnikanis said.' {2 x( F( \5 B
- b$ m0 t; I5 B# t"Because of the fact that the prices are so reasonable, I've actually taken the liberty to drive more. I've really enjoyed doing more driving."- P6 G; H8 |' |- J f Z4 s
. |& g7 `( P* I7 ?In Toronto Friday, pump prices were 80.9 cents per litre. On Thursday they were 79.4 and a week ago they were 74.2., |* q" x+ v6 i u. X
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Vancouver, which has higher gas taxes than other cities, has prices of 94.7 per litre, up from 87.5 a week ago.* a/ M R3 O" [1 U0 a- l2 g3 c
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The price of crude oil, the main ingredient in gasoline, has been dropping steeply since it's peak of $147 reached in July.
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! y% M* _: Y" W, A$ WThe February contract for crude oil settled at US$36.51 on the New York Mercantile Exchange, down from more than US$50 a barrel a week ago.
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& C# c8 G) q/ d"Crude oil is an important input into the distillation of gasoline. But there's a lot of other factors as well," said Todd Hirsch, senior economist with ATB Financial in Calgary.
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Industry players would say they have to account for transportation, marketing and other expenses - not to mention taxes, which vary from province to province.
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But those oil companies - private-sector players in a free-market system - also want to turn a profit.
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e# k( d% p/ z6 K: _" S"Without question those gasoline prices are going to be the highest they think they can get away with without their competitor undercutting them," said Hirsch.
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"They're out to maximize their profits for their shareholders. I don't think there's anything evil going on in them trying to get the highest price. Every retailer in the country does this."
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Another explanation could be that the February contract for crude oil expires on Tuesday, and the contract for March is already significantly higher, settling at $42.57 on Friday.3 t7 q: t: W+ C# e- H4 { x% d; w
# B" m& ~/ t- Z6 t6 i"(The oil companies) might have realized that while prices were low in the last couple of weeks, they knew that there was going to be a correction," Hirsch said.! o' y$ ?& n! Q: E u C
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Hirsch expects pump prices to bounce between 60 and 90 cents per litre over the next few months, but not retesting the heights of last summer.
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3 z5 u) ?' E9 Q* a$ O) c"I'm not seeing a lot of strengthening in crude oil prices over the next six months," he said.$ |/ W* v9 O C5 J* ?9 C
& v0 F9 y1 I) ~+ g* j5 }7 W3 P. F! W, P"In the next six months I would expect to see gasoline prices more or less in the range they're in now, maybe firming up a little bit towards the spring and summer driving season as demand rises.". P% x* U: u4 B7 j5 v6 |% t9 J
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But Gasbuddy.com co-founder Jason Toews said he sees gas prices going higher than their current levels because of a slowdown in Alberta's oilsands and expected production cuts by the Organization of Petroleum Exploring Countries.& A3 ~+ X0 h3 e g- p$ c
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"With lower supplies of crude oil in the market it's going to push crude oil prices up, especially if the economy starts to recover a little bit," Toews said.
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"Once the summer demand for gasoline comes, we're going to see gas prices go up quite a bit from where they are right now. We're going to see a return of a $1 per litre gas for sure and we may even see up to $1.20 per litre." |
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发表于 2009-1-16 19:10
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