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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC
& i7 V; m1 A" F6 v4 h TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the
* W6 r9 q$ b0 p5 kmiddle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive
1 Z4 i8 A1 i" E0 H' c9 M4 k( Wgains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,* ?4 x* s) C* _# e
according to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.
n# Z' F) t/ f2 S8 h "The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure," q5 @7 a/ W5 z9 B: Y! _
said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is9 {5 `7 D/ W' U1 g% ~
improving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability$ H/ G1 t6 M, O) u# Q t* p0 c
measures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."
: ]+ ]/ |. M9 G$ t: I6 ? RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is
7 D/ ^! D; S- o8 Q2 Qworrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,
2 I. Z1 k" x! O0 bwhich runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have- v( m% T h5 a M( R R& N
sustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.; k8 ]% v9 R( {6 S8 U" G
The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the
# p: u; t. w* e3 i1 |) Jproportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a B: `& h. a3 b* S8 ]
home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.! d, U! T- d" g5 K4 m7 h
Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the" u! v- h) l6 f& l7 n$ F
standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and
8 b0 t7 W. J' w. T" R0 a+ e. n* _9 Hthe standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.
( q/ Q9 K; f$ g, e; |* R According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets3 k. X) }9 n! z) [ ]' p
may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in
* d( T N5 j& y; _the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at
4 E# W' |7 H. |7 p+ Z. J) y! b4 A- ^, uhistorically depressed levels.# `0 i) h4 r/ u5 C6 ?
Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost
3 X$ I8 S2 J4 X7 Q6 Uof homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House) t9 p6 R$ z% D8 b
prices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the
3 r* L5 f6 M, K" T, O+ A( C: ehands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This+ |$ ]4 G1 z, ?4 }, ~! i- T$ J+ X2 N7 J) f
enormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the
6 a/ a6 p8 q8 q5 D A8 p+ X& q! tmonths ahead," added Hogue.
) P5 Q4 n7 B" s8 k. w+ y2 w# m6 L1 V, ] RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest
7 x7 b9 x; \# x6 L* Gcities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary% e r' N Y. Y b5 C4 z
42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.
1 A8 s9 V$ A4 M) v; D, r The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for
7 u9 Z" g# M ]2 Da broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these
9 S7 d& f) G# `2 S- ocities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only Y# b# R4 j1 W0 y3 T' `( p
takes mortgage payments relative to income into account.
/ q" ~/ h8 w* Z The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is6 l z, ?3 D3 ^2 m- N# o8 u7 S
based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property/ {' @! y7 Q8 O6 M/ H% A
benchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented. ^8 _3 R0 B/ W6 r+ p, ?
including a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard
# L* I5 x4 T( h$ Ocondominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.( X, o, O: y+ ?/ \* N9 b, B
For example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership: F2 N( Z- \' x+ T
costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50
: P1 _3 X9 o4 Q) U( Jper cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.
5 v+ K. J4 p2 {5 B7 F
9 K1 H! O4 L3 U7 |* j6 H3 _" i4 m4 s <<
: p8 s7 p1 ~" d" g2 X2 Z Highlights from across Canada:: J ^3 o0 }4 J5 T4 i
2 X2 F1 P* E( a
- Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has
4 _6 }1 h' D( p n intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing: M1 _7 t+ }, u! g
home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound' f3 [9 v6 I" h
only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track
4 e' E1 F" w9 W3 r% G' e& E since about the middle of 2007.8 F, n( p. W0 ~0 T
- Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the" V4 N% H. E7 F$ r! ~
frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to
4 d; Y5 P, Y# X* r5 C6 ^ decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still
8 i( g: i# Y V$ H/ o# O# p7 q& n largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely3 A C( j' ?: i. u5 [8 e, U/ _
poor affordability levels.
. R* m1 Q: k( b# f: u/ y3 _2 I - Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the
+ B6 K) {, A4 @: v5 r! O. l+ s9 p$ H vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and
4 a) a7 L: g/ M, Y6 W' V8 x prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.5 i) e4 U$ ]4 Z# }% E. v
Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to( ^0 `1 Q3 B# r4 a' Z9 p4 S |
minimize any downside risks.. D# @# @* [! _0 c- q+ ^
- Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market% {: z7 t0 R* ]% U5 U, Q2 T2 ^; m* U
conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is
8 h- G4 O% m! `1 N unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early& f+ H5 z( E# D; [8 F
1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly! \) S: v4 J/ o& |5 ]' d
being restored to levels closer to long-term averages./ \( M2 f' M8 Z' _9 K$ I' y
- Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in# }0 M- i9 q+ Y& U" w! c
Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus3 {9 S1 ?8 |! F4 D* \
far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up
9 z- y' ?0 K( H8 i7 {2 j2 U1 c( ^ reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be
6 C& q3 I9 l( U- d$ |+ l# k& C ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only
, Q# ]3 ]6 {# [1 a: Q4 }3 l, ] modestly in recent years.2 ]1 G/ `( r0 \/ o5 }$ ^3 t6 i
- Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the, B) {) C/ l, q' Y- s! G. K6 ^
general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot
; u; r& ~5 Z* ]% n6 E spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward9 n9 F/ j2 M/ b0 Y1 a
price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability* R/ z, y3 W8 E2 Q2 x
following two years of deterioration.
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