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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC
0 T& w/ T6 N+ X TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the
5 ]# C0 x& ^: |4 U" g7 Bmiddle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive1 A, f8 Z) r+ `
gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,2 T8 ~& \/ O) X# x$ Y! f+ _
according to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.
# N- @ E# E' X7 R( d "The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"" c" v4 Y5 z- f- `2 B6 M
said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is
! M, K, ~- d1 d6 |improving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability
+ v, M" f$ ]9 L y3 m) p2 tmeasures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."
% l# J. T# F/ C2 ^. @# r. O RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is
s0 o5 L d* M- T1 Eworrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,$ i2 i- P8 I6 a( n
which runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have
) d# r; A5 g" ]0 g Z# J# Isustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes., M9 V+ B% N7 s1 a' W
The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the
( B" F$ U. O C* [proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a
8 y! D! m$ D* q* `# B W& Qhome, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.
* {& @4 S- u) n3 i3 j/ JAffordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the
6 i& m* h! ^2 `" J$ n" B, ~) ^3 `standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and! q/ H7 y" F3 R0 v1 e& d5 n( N
the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.5 o; W4 f8 b+ a( V
According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets. i9 |, R$ M& j- {+ p* S7 J
may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in* [, m: s# l& k7 q& g3 R* {" m; k
the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at
" t* T/ R5 ?; w" M- u# Phistorically depressed levels.' R3 Q4 l% V. J/ `7 a% P( J
Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost% g( d% z6 v4 T% i* d! f7 F( a9 h
of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House
; Z% V1 D7 Z. X7 L9 z7 d3 Mprices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the" K0 x* b: m6 r# T2 d
hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This
9 ]. s( W% g7 t. t" ienormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the
2 q3 z: u* L% H: R8 K: pmonths ahead," added Hogue.$ ]' `* W0 _4 m2 b' V+ U" u
RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest
) c) K) Q0 d8 I. \* xcities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary: a. R' R% [) ^5 d f: X4 O
42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.6 P5 R; t1 i @8 Z9 T6 i2 g
The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for* m# _6 x* y: \9 K! R7 ]4 E% u
a broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these
# ? ]/ N) R9 g5 m) D' o) r8 gcities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only' h5 @9 d2 ]- i" l0 P, I1 G
takes mortgage payments relative to income into account.
( |- U; |* B# F The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is) u3 W* M2 ~0 M+ U& }
based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property, h8 Q+ X k) [7 E. m
benchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented' F+ d9 c9 Y7 n( r, q
including a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard1 s& { h) _- a
condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.; o" u T0 i1 j2 l) K
For example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership/ T- \6 O$ i4 E
costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50
( P7 Y" a7 J; Nper cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.% ~3 p( H( G& W4 A- q O
6 N( E, W6 w7 E+ a/ Y
<<, H4 {6 k0 V' q# m. c$ V, L. c+ t
Highlights from across Canada:, H7 N: R6 ~" l4 T7 Z: w
8 ~2 C7 {1 i) F1 X# s - Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has
( D/ j; F" f' G0 @$ c/ I' T intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing
w% p4 B4 R) ^! E home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound/ @0 e. r: R5 K X7 w% e
only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track% d! S5 G# ]6 h9 Y0 M7 o3 I1 D
since about the middle of 2007.
! G) i4 B9 y: R* I5 n( T8 V$ f- F - Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the( a7 ?# M$ O3 q
frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to/ y3 }1 M' p% @) j, ]$ \4 B7 G3 n" q
decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still
5 H, N2 q+ c, K. R8 k; U6 n largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely
`$ ?+ m( h, N T0 J5 J# j poor affordability levels.
4 S" G! _# d) @# v' H+ M3 B - Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the! L o8 ^& E# T7 w+ q
vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and
. v8 b6 ^- f; G9 c2 { prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.0 r$ Z5 b. S, w4 d. q6 H
Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to
& T6 A( e- Y( L9 T minimize any downside risks.& i1 _$ K, w6 {: j
- Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market! A/ d& ]# j9 y" S# z$ A
conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is
5 d. |+ r/ }4 \& B" c unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early
" s' `5 w4 _4 w 1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly
) i; D) Q$ w6 |* W being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.
" ]7 m& D" z9 j) Q) g - Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in: T4 L% s. N I% Z1 I
Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus
! e0 D% v: W7 g6 a& z8 r! z far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up
2 y6 x5 M7 n) a reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be
. X; Z" q* s/ \: i) U$ U( F1 C ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only2 u& l( s/ V, ?5 Z* a
modestly in recent years.& \. X: y. b6 G$ \- h- P. }7 h
- Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the1 l5 U9 g% i* k) _* [0 `; \
general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot
$ s7 N& c, I' s, v8 X# l spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward" P( E, t) S/ u5 z. P
price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability3 P U- ^( k/ `2 `- X( U
following two years of deterioration.' T' E& o. ]" H( B/ t ?: U. A5 l
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