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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC
5 w& b0 b/ j) Z) F( ] TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the
) H# n; ~0 G/ I) j7 ^) p2 J9 }middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive" Q# w& ]. T; s( \- {0 x
gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,9 I3 w" I& W6 i+ k& b" H4 a7 l
according to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.
3 p- D6 K, h2 c# g8 h "The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"
0 w( u: C2 x8 m* esaid Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is. _4 E4 ~& M# h. G" a. B, i
improving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability
; a0 m& A/ j% p' ^measures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages.": M/ o4 B/ e4 L: [. m
RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is& Y" p+ Q9 i$ x3 c& E
worrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,
) j4 d+ W S& Iwhich runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have
9 [$ I+ e& L+ Dsustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.2 B9 b0 z$ l& o, n9 d+ _3 L
The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the8 L' a7 Z2 s8 Z) |9 j( H6 o
proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a. W u a- m q7 V
home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.
2 _, R! |5 o9 c% c$ {. RAffordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the. M) @, ^$ F. ?' }, g$ [- v2 X& E/ Y' h
standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and
" t) l# w- U8 G/ {. U0 G8 lthe standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.
; N3 P4 A) ~* _8 w+ Z According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets( e" Y$ J [' C+ c$ [& Z3 |* t
may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in
/ J ]9 D8 E4 D+ K, ~5 ethe closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at
& F6 V4 x d( ?+ x6 a$ Zhistorically depressed levels.7 p! x# ?6 d. E. d0 i5 z% [8 c0 v
Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost d1 P; g7 l4 y
of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House
1 N4 `0 y- p. s; }1 _+ p9 cprices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the5 g# D6 o0 q/ {% _; D# f! Z0 Y
hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This
6 i/ L0 c+ M1 y/ Penormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the
, U# y% h+ Z( J: `0 a+ y- amonths ahead," added Hogue.. b* h& F) ^2 X# P7 `. J; J: n* h: y
RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest0 M l2 L; l$ ?, [ {7 Z4 B
cities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary
1 `8 S1 s) b( }42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.
! T1 E* N( r J The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for* A. y5 r2 M$ }/ A* p
a broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these
* S p) {, B2 ]% A) t2 Ccities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only
4 A$ Y2 f3 w4 I, ~7 `0 ftakes mortgage payments relative to income into account.4 N3 E: c( q8 _: W; U5 `1 t
The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is
0 e5 a8 }! @: ]based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property& w: a5 d6 v, n: A2 j
benchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented
8 a# b/ a5 o7 O/ }including a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard4 R" r7 V4 F- T; X1 M
condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.
. |3 C( y6 X) l! h; U$ {For example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership
! {, i1 n8 ~. G& w0 X% A! Scosts, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50( b' _; \2 \4 I* g; I, B1 h: U V: j
per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.3 {( }) u; H6 B2 l
6 I0 C9 G5 O. @; h- u
<<& v' `* y4 f" C4 P) T) m# y' F
Highlights from across Canada:
# [( U4 L, j, g' F- S( f7 a; G* c" D. S( H
- Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has
7 b, g$ i* E' w$ h/ x. I intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing- y, q7 \) r. k9 Z$ d
home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound" F7 k# C) W5 S) o# V0 }
only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track$ i4 p7 G( Z( R% X
since about the middle of 2007.
2 g8 s1 z, E2 ?1 } w - Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the
( w6 F9 S+ ^ c frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to7 { @3 d3 B6 H
decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still+ c% ^6 |0 L. F2 b* R# U3 `
largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely( `9 p/ H1 M ^6 W- G4 q% l
poor affordability levels.
+ O! W2 n5 R3 w' Q - Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the
6 U3 B: \( ?( i n vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and4 E- w0 w! i! m
prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.
0 F- c" H9 V# y2 O, I" R* T3 X Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to& A3 a$ F- l* [- B
minimize any downside risks.
4 n4 q: {' h1 } ` - Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market
! p* g; k; r, A, H8 ] conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is
0 H% R* y. m" A& x, O! s1 j+ h unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early
5 z( q+ m8 T$ ~ 1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly
( j' {- m8 _7 o4 I" U being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.0 P/ N) [8 u5 B. U, r3 p
- Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in7 s8 i6 |$ w6 R- W
Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus" i! P. h1 g+ M" Y! N9 }
far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up0 z1 ?$ K- x- c( u& K& p
reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be
/ H9 Z6 n9 @/ D6 P: n ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only
0 ^. r J: x& A; E4 V modestly in recent years.6 t# L" l. r6 ?7 @5 I
- Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the# \/ H! T4 b' D% {% Q1 j# s$ @3 v( {
general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot% ~7 J, q w# q( M m$ W& b9 u
spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward
) ~8 N5 y" F( [# v) L [) r( R- Y price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability" [, @. o/ Z' |
following two years of deterioration.
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