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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC
; v+ [) a; U7 h# j+ ^7 q r' i TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the
) ?8 u0 [! e. W1 Z2 H) c+ u6 @middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive
- U$ Z0 @$ j$ i2 o4 x; J) Ygains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,8 v, i. {: _0 ^! O
according to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.( @ [+ m1 H; w
"The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"( \5 `1 k9 M3 C5 h
said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is
1 t5 W* r7 ^0 O7 [. b' nimproving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability" T/ F; @+ u( Q" s% {4 u3 L' `
measures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages." p2 j, x" n; P f/ `# V
RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is
* |0 D. m7 J, I; aworrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,* X5 {3 U' t/ e1 F5 u0 U
which runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have; g9 A; ]' a" w% c
sustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.
% G j3 @3 D d The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the+ O# P7 u3 q" K* l0 u3 b
proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a1 J2 A7 I: j! t+ G" g4 Z
home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.
. T* I( A8 D5 x* T0 }$ D" lAffordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the
) n4 d9 e+ r6 E6 Lstandard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and
5 f5 ` ]7 O0 j( `1 Kthe standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.
' ^& X+ ]! Z0 C0 U According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets
3 {9 I6 [" n) W) W: G9 C& bmay be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in% M n, w8 N- U" k
the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at
$ e! T) R$ \: ^& Y6 @% E5 b0 U6 `1 Jhistorically depressed levels.
8 c% I) j: V3 N- U) t: I Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost
* Q' l2 }7 a, c0 A$ Yof homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House& g+ }/ O' C% g: P* J, X" T1 e/ c- ^
prices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the* r% d, x; J) \2 f
hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This. j. H& j3 w7 f# d6 R* A" u; N$ s
enormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the% y( T5 q1 J Q5 F- M
months ahead," added Hogue.
2 ^: S; r/ T2 a9 x: e RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest$ p+ _ @, q1 s" j, ?
cities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary& g- p( o( N3 C5 l3 X' J' Z* T
42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.7 p; R" p N7 b2 [& p
The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for
4 e! H+ _* a P2 j, h* X2 ja broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these
6 j @" L) R6 Qcities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only* A/ U6 k$ R6 A% w- o! z6 }( Z- s
takes mortgage payments relative to income into account., v0 T9 d5 F6 E1 M# Q) y- m: h
The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is
& m* _5 w8 L# v, n( T: g1 tbased on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property0 _2 ~, {) M. ~" K
benchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented: q# _( x$ L y( m2 e
including a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard( W0 z: R0 Z R; o6 Y7 Q2 {
condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.& w0 a2 p' @! i# f# W
For example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership
; {- y5 N6 |# [# h! q& i$ ncosts, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50
4 h8 a( S% |) ]per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.2 E6 A; D' t7 e: r3 q
% m+ Y s) l+ v! h3 ` <<
7 P& l5 D0 R; Q, m8 t! D8 \ Highlights from across Canada:5 B0 e. V/ M+ P. e0 `3 a
- u9 _! E$ z. j" ]" ~ - Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has3 Q1 ]+ K# N- X. q( E1 [9 B
intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing7 A2 i6 {( W% n
home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound
: c( v* x5 l' q) X only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track* n2 x8 \4 }" y4 d
since about the middle of 2007.! H9 N* ^9 L! U1 I- z
- Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the# R$ @* ?# L$ k7 x. P
frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to
$ A2 Y4 D0 V4 W: `% a" R" K decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still
* S, W1 Z- J8 ~ largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely
' S+ Z. E8 m, g poor affordability levels.
3 B% M' g0 ?! \+ r0 v - Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the, S$ x" L, `) r! H0 d/ J
vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and
# b! U# O8 }& V$ B# ] prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly. ?( m+ k( H1 y& ]
Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to( P7 d- |8 c( K# X; _2 n7 q6 F: u
minimize any downside risks.
2 D) C9 g4 {* T% b0 a - Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market) R) \2 N4 P4 ~% E# ?0 y6 ^9 ^) v1 j
conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is
6 P; Z; Z5 Q+ ~! x unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early2 U7 F9 Y% o$ ~- K# S
1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly
8 c' g8 S( q: r/ l5 K+ `7 I/ C being restored to levels closer to long-term averages. d; Z) ^ }6 E' Z
- Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in3 R. w* ?4 P" x! _# s1 x/ e- F$ r
Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus- B H2 t V: u: ^
far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up& A* Z& I I/ Z- g0 r, m. ~6 k
reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be& U. r, x3 a! |: A! ~
ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only
6 ?+ P* A3 u! k: }* X: e modestly in recent years.) S ?. N8 @, f4 B# W3 L# F1 ]2 Z
- Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the2 v0 t! N' |# I
general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot v o: G2 z6 g; s9 G( N
spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward
d3 l8 W4 t5 x$ I- ^ price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability
* g [' i1 H4 p4 k' M. i' I following two years of deterioration.7 v3 r) @& k2 _
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