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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC : ~9 b8 ~6 d7 J; [8 r
TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the* w# e: g! s; f
middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive- L) Z# H! c: M5 ?1 n
gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,9 r: f( d) d0 I9 l+ }
according to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.
5 E) U+ e; l8 `- K+ @. j1 |- J "The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"8 X% `* j3 ~2 |6 B! t' \
said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is5 }5 m( v0 t( F O
improving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability' z8 C: d$ ], M" Z5 H Z6 L) X
measures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages.": {5 ^" |9 A) I: m$ G# o0 t( a2 R6 n
RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is
1 m# h7 w+ m. J+ [9 Sworrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,2 y# q' a8 q8 G; A+ P
which runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have
) x6 D1 m, u" e6 bsustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.
4 c( ]4 z& @& z& I0 i The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the8 |* U: M# D: g. K) O6 \: }: j/ ]
proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a% B% D8 O8 L& Z% m( h) {0 `& u
home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.9 D j2 i5 F; g$ i1 {( V
Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the2 ?) @6 R1 n3 i$ O+ {0 z
standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and3 d! q- v% B. S8 Z
the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.5 Y, B. m- p. e4 ?3 _0 i
According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets$ _; f) l' h6 W _
may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in3 a/ t9 T1 I1 n1 ^, T, U {
the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at$ X0 z" D' p: C4 p8 Y' y
historically depressed levels.* B1 \5 E! \1 _* i
Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost1 x. `/ R* _, m \
of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House
0 }' Y- n: ?; B1 Kprices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the5 e( r2 ]' [+ u, m/ i
hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This/ o. y; j" d. ]5 `# p3 a! _
enormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the
0 d; r9 s/ V, @$ ^& F5 p" ?months ahead," added Hogue.
) n7 G1 ]* e2 j- O: R! T) L RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest
, \+ t' \8 a& e8 F" R+ N, J, ccities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary
- W* l/ E3 S. v( |. o42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.0 f8 p @% _0 i2 ^) ~8 _- d
The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for
" s ?* x0 `6 ]6 `6 Z; ?! S: ka broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these
+ b) B/ l0 d0 J4 l lcities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only
; o3 C1 p4 S5 ztakes mortgage payments relative to income into account.
% q4 R0 n& c$ `7 z) m- H The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is( ]- U/ V6 G$ L# I y
based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property) ?5 l# j( `1 e7 r$ X
benchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented
9 l" P. d9 [! ~including a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard1 F( k5 l1 D8 W0 @
condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.
" U: F' V, N6 F3 EFor example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership! h/ B1 l7 Y9 o% ~; J
costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50. A4 w; s/ F p1 ]
per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.1 z8 K4 D" p, U) N) I& j$ W( |6 h+ v
2 T% V5 {6 W, ^( J$ i" N% a
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5 u2 }9 s4 W S* U' [# _0 w Highlights from across Canada:
" d8 z" t/ `) Y$ ~) }2 {# V3 T
3 _+ M5 f& E( v2 w9 t; p - Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has
1 T, [6 o% S4 T( B. A" w- G7 g% B intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing" ~& q% \4 j. h
home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound/ B7 `7 j1 W6 i) Z+ z9 O
only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track# x& A7 q5 L5 K' G
since about the middle of 2007.
/ t6 _* I5 L" A1 D - Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the9 b% b3 e7 G. [$ e; {7 t
frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to1 n. i' c" ]$ r4 O
decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still% g8 N3 G. t$ Y o: _$ ], r ~
largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely9 s$ k- |5 [5 x' H
poor affordability levels.# t" x' g0 S2 K7 R
- Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the
: ~3 m- \0 Z" X( X3 e vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and
: a1 H) d9 A" a0 @* N( u4 j3 y% O' q prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.8 L% F5 S1 A$ X: R ~3 w
Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to
! b' e/ y# S, q7 D5 g$ J minimize any downside risks.4 G1 w* b+ ?- W5 s) P% Y
- Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market
! l9 U: N- O7 U conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is6 d* ^4 G$ p+ R6 I
unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early
+ Q. J+ ^9 z& _( Q7 C' e6 \ 1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly& c; g: F2 i) Q# R* p% {9 O) [) \
being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.
3 `* P1 k/ i& ?% i0 H0 M0 q - Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in
/ Q' u0 S; K6 t/ A+ ^ Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus; F4 C8 |' e- o( _
far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up( U2 C- M9 {& S$ e. \
reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be
, b2 G5 Z8 j- B& i/ d+ f1 M ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only
: D8 C0 C6 b- a modestly in recent years.
( X8 B+ {+ P4 y) q* `7 y - Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the, f% z2 C9 v! `+ A% v
general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot9 R8 p' Q) s) |2 L3 {
spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward" R. t! f$ Z' i& C
price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability7 o( a0 F6 c5 Z. R: K
following two years of deterioration.6 K% b( R0 R) ~2 ~( d p4 u
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