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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC
: m6 i; d1 K& p# t; E6 m6 I TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the6 r7 [2 e- I* s. H1 ^& D K
middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive- ^" T% ^+ S7 A8 u( a
gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,, c4 n' m. x% H7 D, j2 f
according to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.
$ x+ \9 F, \9 ]/ \8 }/ m$ \ "The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"
0 I4 ?% Y. `7 }. Wsaid Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is
1 @8 {, `6 ?1 M5 Q. Yimproving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability+ K4 Q2 z3 E; k" Q* P
measures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."
) ~6 s& H3 q3 p1 y RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is
/ U$ c; {% l- |& Eworrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,; f* G( s5 h9 ]
which runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have: D: ^+ L* k& e5 u) i: p/ `
sustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.9 x" a$ n, B0 J }# y C, A
The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the
; ]& ~( r+ X( x3 iproportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a
5 v$ |( n( o' z4 {4 v" _home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.
+ \" z2 r3 C7 ^( J% }# L- D/ ]Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the
* F2 V N1 { o2 Q+ u- Mstandard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and' x, Y1 ]! p5 _! [7 j
the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.+ {' [6 q7 a- c" @* W' ~7 i
According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets; }( k# v! c; x9 @1 I( Y
may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in
/ p# q0 N9 ` T. G; [the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at
) s9 M* Q1 O. o: nhistorically depressed levels.$ P: Y' t% k) m6 n% ^
Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost1 K; E. n3 I ^2 G8 n% g+ Q
of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House
5 e, M, a( s' b! J$ Mprices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the
' b2 D; a" ?( h* C" k: D9 l/ a% chands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This
7 \- o4 N$ w% X6 Renormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the
$ j" E u% K) n; f* wmonths ahead," added Hogue.
1 y8 v5 v0 @. Q/ H RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest4 I! B1 R3 f/ @) K) W' y" k
cities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary4 r6 r3 T3 X- `' `) q
42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.6 `9 b4 A e7 }! p8 z' v" {" I
The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for
* j. h* I% U( c( {a broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these
* \, g( J/ t" K6 Y! _) ]7 Z4 Lcities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only
/ ?+ r3 h8 n) w* H/ R* }takes mortgage payments relative to income into account.
) r9 n6 p3 M( m9 v a3 B# {2 K The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is; F" K. y' a/ d; n
based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property
" e1 _, }+ W+ q( I ~/ Ibenchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented
( V; |, d9 Q; u- ^% ]' n5 tincluding a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard
' ^4 Y" K% @5 E# Hcondominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.
* h/ `$ P ^+ c, |# hFor example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership3 m8 u* ?0 l6 j
costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50# U- S* v5 O% D$ t0 o/ a$ i! A
per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.1 ^0 [( j" H: B- q9 u
; R: ]5 p. j" p9 P2 ?! c
<<
9 Q+ L6 E5 A8 k: W; X; h( J5 ~ Highlights from across Canada:2 ~% z" B3 b, o; E$ N
- f, h8 K J0 ^( w
- Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has* E! @; x9 U( d Y
intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing
: E& Q+ `8 J8 H* p home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound
- ~' |5 ~% b( n- A% P* B$ {3 e only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track
@% E( v: n' o0 c3 ?: o: W since about the middle of 2007.
; b# v; p S7 `, h# W - Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the3 h5 r8 H" A' v U9 F
frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to3 \" L* B+ E' u2 P5 A8 z" b
decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still
9 j( f' _( I/ O# J, _+ [* z largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely- O3 O. G; N+ i$ `
poor affordability levels.
; a; a ?4 H: ]5 \0 H - Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the" E# u' b% |$ H1 J' g7 y
vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and
9 ?3 ~ s( Q- X6 f' A9 R prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.+ T- m% |4 T2 ~' A J& t* U8 W) ?% S
Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to1 ?6 A6 q: `& K' q
minimize any downside risks.
3 D: Z1 H9 P1 T- I - Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market
" {5 ?4 Q' ?: C* N conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is
9 f8 W0 P0 A" l/ R8 A# a unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early' B7 C) [/ m: P3 ]5 R
1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly
8 E$ ~) W* |# H+ Y4 v4 C- H being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.
% t& }" U. m" P - Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in
$ G0 Z' `. k [( }" g0 A2 } Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus
+ C: `3 b5 ^. C) r. k( Q9 J far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up7 _% q& L$ L& Y% t8 c5 {) Y3 N
reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be
! r6 E% s/ A0 ^$ @: ^# O8 V ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only
: }! T! t4 w8 O: Z. j modestly in recent years.
1 G! {/ S) ^: t, [& p - Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the- L6 ]) a( L. u" z3 m3 j2 w, T) j
general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot6 d$ W& T$ i( r& X2 O% v; d
spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward
; j, N4 i& c, M$ |( P) t price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability
, T/ }! n; r( R8 y4 f+ k0 S# P following two years of deterioration.
/ N5 B. g' H7 Z1 l# D* y >> |
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