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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC 5 m4 ?( w. L& W2 i# v' s0 r3 |
TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the
8 |# E* X: c6 q4 T! imiddle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive
2 }; J% i9 x' ]5 Xgains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,
2 ~1 L3 K) R* F, Z) Z- uaccording to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.
. M* [+ }! s: x- l. I: g "The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"" `# I% F( f* n$ F# i M
said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is
& @& D8 B4 K* Z: G0 Oimproving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability
/ B( J% M- v! `: \8 n" `measures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."% F6 z2 r& S$ \* B3 }7 d! v
RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is
! p* q" J2 v. ]. T: Lworrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,
: E$ ~2 ~6 w. v& W& ?8 |which runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have
" d% `2 m Z/ ?( r# x) \7 Wsustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.
. V( S! G$ `) V `* E, A2 a. v# x; O The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the
9 B( Y4 t2 v1 L, `% v. }, bproportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a
6 d- L# B% ]8 S7 Ihome, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.
3 b+ f6 n1 l* k9 z) q7 m) [) [) k$ PAffordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the0 G) `# a; x# ^! z
standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and
& G: B7 k' Y. i- |* y0 e9 zthe standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.7 y" o+ ]5 u! k7 t8 f+ `, b
According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets' G- c2 A/ Z8 R& m# p
may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in
- X( m! X5 U3 {, ?0 a1 ~& cthe closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at
* [& q E& _( Y6 t/ ~historically depressed levels.
. C+ S* p% A& O* _ Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost
, ^0 m- I9 \* q8 y) w; F8 Q2 |of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House
9 e" r* D. ] {7 U8 U9 aprices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the4 ?7 l) `# _% \! f2 q) e6 P* {! `6 i
hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This
s/ u r+ s0 @* @. l3 Benormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the
1 b: P) K( q) z5 v% s1 R0 Mmonths ahead," added Hogue.
- U2 d- R. L* i9 x/ h4 ~# [/ [ RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest2 y. v9 O6 G+ |. S" P9 a }4 H7 G
cities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary- v% p- T1 D0 h# J$ C) M
42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.( j6 I2 ?; U6 I s/ g' e
The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for, ~7 U; _- y! T7 o2 j8 j/ p8 \2 l, H
a broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these
/ e1 D, F+ x0 \cities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only ]1 J, {( _6 \$ F
takes mortgage payments relative to income into account.5 U: f' P* x, U' V+ a* h
The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is6 F8 \! `& H j; |6 k u
based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property
' i' V3 j3 S( m, d4 Lbenchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented
( V/ z" `, T- O$ s/ J$ Q- wincluding a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard
+ l2 v* G6 R1 q! Q" Qcondominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.
( ?" B, u# e: T5 `& q5 k9 A7 [For example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership
" C1 o+ B0 X& |/ k# Tcosts, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50
+ \3 n4 i1 ^" s% @; Z/ [per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.) p; X. t6 H; y
8 n) g& F2 A, W, \
<<2 @5 v, q* {7 G8 Z
Highlights from across Canada:
- z4 I/ x6 B2 y6 j8 ^! j) S: j& }, G
- Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has
# ~$ \# O; W, n! f intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing
" }! [( I7 o0 }# ^* D home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound
8 ^- Q1 s( \7 [: U only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track$ d6 L; L8 U0 @ F z8 Z
since about the middle of 2007.
! g9 e! ^: S) }8 u+ v - Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the
. m. A$ l! l' ]0 r frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to
U: M7 Y# H- s3 |5 u decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still
& d. E7 j3 l/ f largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely
( x! a$ @6 ?1 B" p* ]0 R4 _$ i poor affordability levels.6 O" }7 k B$ b
- Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the
9 t( O3 E H- q6 l vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and& M; S' o4 T, @. i! w! y7 @8 e P
prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.
7 ?! m+ r0 a9 o; Q" X, o Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to
5 R8 _* f7 E) c6 A minimize any downside risks.
0 c$ t5 \9 t2 W% [- B0 C( ` - Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market
# f7 [3 f# W c) }6 E# ~ conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is
# x. A- ?2 ^* H. Y1 ]' i unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early
2 r/ c' M' a2 V& s5 ] 1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly
) z8 G4 { [7 h) N3 n being restored to levels closer to long-term averages., e3 ~1 x K$ B) n5 v3 ^6 V: u8 S' I! `
- Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in" A# ~, H- \4 x0 }
Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus7 a$ a' {( a/ H( K
far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up
5 w. c v! [* H+ S) s' R4 O7 m+ w reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be
4 j: L2 ]7 h" W$ Q6 f. Q6 S2 Y ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only; W4 R8 j' l7 g! c& @; t2 C# t* e
modestly in recent years.
$ p- g# A2 q3 f: g- |1 x - Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the8 W! j. x$ }- Q0 \- K) H
general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot* ^) r9 L5 ?7 Y5 o9 }4 e3 ^
spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward R8 U& O6 T0 n- \
price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability2 e0 z9 @/ w4 I; t+ |
following two years of deterioration.' T/ Z: A- x; F% Z5 ^* E. h2 W
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