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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC
/ u0 ?7 f/ ]2 X- o# q0 Q9 e TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the9 y) B4 P0 {3 ^3 K
middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive
1 s' F- `& P; T- q; mgains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,/ @5 I3 a8 M ]) X& \
according to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.# K6 X& ?% i. W" d6 d4 i
"The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"5 \+ i' _4 k- H- G. r( _9 f
said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is
5 X' o6 f5 ^3 Fimproving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability
. `4 e/ T) x9 Qmeasures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."
- U: \. e& @; ~8 n# F, |) E9 J RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is
7 v5 V( l. q9 B8 p3 Pworrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,
4 N$ A7 q; b8 k$ fwhich runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have4 P0 ?, _0 D3 a# \
sustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.
9 @9 o# D8 W5 Z" v The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the7 X; Y' f8 k: N# G
proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a% R) r( t4 V7 n i2 W+ I
home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.8 u& u B: n2 l. C l& {( l
Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the9 B; t" O" K0 V" g7 ^) U# k
standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and9 _; @, x2 L8 ~- A% a
the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.! B) v* \0 h4 N5 U' t* y) @
According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets
9 ], X; R7 [0 J( o7 V1 Vmay be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in
: J* A& e$ x; |! xthe closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at- b/ d# c+ O* U( y
historically depressed levels.
# U M' }- k$ k8 ^6 T Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost
! Y' k: _4 n/ T& G; C) v- dof homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House: c. z. {/ O1 ?# g0 k
prices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the
" ?: X! A! ~1 F4 ehands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This4 g K: @: s# ]& A) t% u
enormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the
/ L$ X5 W3 X2 _1 m& `months ahead," added Hogue.
% |- F! T: C0 O- W& p0 i RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest) z& _2 U. J, K
cities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary
0 M. x5 n2 X0 h6 `42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.
3 Z, J- X4 b' t# S8 N The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for
( O* ]6 Q/ G) X8 ia broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these
1 f1 B5 d: B6 X4 }$ M( icities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only. P+ d: v' K, F, M3 M' W" F
takes mortgage payments relative to income into account.5 X5 ~' W: i, n/ v. N
The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is7 J4 \2 b" B* p( S
based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property
+ C9 F* M( u! l# V- ^7 [benchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented* U. e' e: K, N9 c1 k
including a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard
" z7 y6 r9 l. F, L- Jcondominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.: e* k0 k( x8 n, C% p' _
For example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership
. q$ y) W3 c X0 o* l( ~" H: @costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 509 l* g1 d; P# ~$ `
per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.
& l: f& P1 I v9 i
8 w, J; ~* C) y+ ~" s; n <<( T. x' B5 b9 ?$ d$ X
Highlights from across Canada:
+ S0 d% g; C3 U+ |9 z! S
0 l& G: i4 f8 E, g2 }6 x - Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has
+ M" u4 s4 ~6 G. ?0 L intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing: a! X3 C. W6 J8 C
home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound
- Q, l+ \* w( r C% y only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track* u4 u* o/ J! h5 u
since about the middle of 2007.
( g/ e2 q# Y/ R4 Y- D - Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the& E8 `* T" r( x4 n. `
frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to) H6 B/ X: g' l9 e i7 I3 H7 [# l
decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still4 f7 B( f4 x' K
largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely( W: P, z. _8 q9 l& ^- N
poor affordability levels.
5 W8 y, N( B1 f b - Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the6 K9 X9 M! J7 U8 G9 u, H1 D/ |
vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and, z7 r0 I' s3 A2 e6 Q# f1 h
prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.
3 x" F- w6 m6 {9 p5 M2 T- V, d# p Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to' A2 z" W" W# {( p
minimize any downside risks.2 ~, A: R! G/ v: d: j( B6 c
- Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market
x$ q+ r/ ~, F' ? conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is
4 x( l" O2 G6 A' }! D unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early
0 a8 J% C: Y6 O8 H 1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly
5 U* t: J( U" o' K being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.
# N; `" e) X( }$ l" V, M% d - Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in
2 _9 x2 R/ I- ~8 X Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus' S- Y' M* [3 p3 W
far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up" s" f5 j9 D& ]4 W+ ^
reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be
+ F1 R) g8 n' _7 L ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only
# {/ j) w$ [! D s0 g' I modestly in recent years.6 E2 A3 }4 W: {& O
- Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the! G0 V' J) a/ o" D- D. o
general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot
( D" M6 K% R! R, Y! l spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward
4 [1 q# Q3 |6 ^( U, }9 a price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability) |3 i. @ j7 e4 t
following two years of deterioration. ^; b- b$ E& V
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