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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC % o, m$ E' D1 i/ m$ @8 T
TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the
F0 R' `) ]8 s9 R, H4 g, emiddle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive& R9 H; ?; ^) A
gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,
2 L9 {, ^3 Q- U9 v2 i1 maccording to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.
5 M6 v( h5 a. w3 w+ C: O' e "The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"/ R* R( V9 y9 J! |# U
said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is
, |7 i( J) F8 C& G0 F5 d9 [" iimproving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability n! N% G# }( S% k _
measures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."
' E& R$ y1 \: i: ] RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is
! w, u0 T3 P+ y. K bworrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,3 o* F* a- ?4 a1 ]: T
which runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have) r5 P! L# ~( o5 v9 c
sustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.$ c s; A, C( i' a
The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the) @1 d* T- \% \
proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a# L3 D1 `; A5 [" K% o" C" _; O& z6 e
home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.: n' E5 B8 Y( A+ u# b
Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the
& D; @; N, C& |4 m4 Ostandard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and% T5 q& Q# k6 h" c N, M
the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.* [* O7 Y8 E7 M% e
According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets
' h# w `& o" p/ V6 A F5 ?8 hmay be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in. q; \5 i; g* d
the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at
7 D, L* V# L& h+ ]historically depressed levels., |! p# L% h: S* u i5 |/ L
Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost
2 }, z! C. |4 _9 y6 t# m" e5 Q" Dof homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House
* x. d( D, a+ L- p, Aprices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the9 D0 t+ e9 g% n/ |9 c
hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This
( T- @. w/ ~6 L" i/ q penormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the) c$ c2 I# m5 C8 m6 |& t+ [" Z
months ahead," added Hogue. @' c1 P4 d/ ]& V4 C
RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest
" |! ^4 V8 K) F; pcities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary5 G! `# t5 P7 X) M0 g$ K( L1 Q) [
42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.; H# ]- p& z, p9 K& v8 V/ R; v
The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for# [2 s. c+ H8 ~- I4 J+ o4 }* M
a broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these
4 P5 a$ e5 ^5 P! m+ l( @0 tcities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only
2 x, e1 T$ _5 n7 Y3 Y% ntakes mortgage payments relative to income into account.
- \. H. t4 Y) i" [ The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is
9 r1 n' ~0 ?, i. Tbased on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property
) j5 d/ J' t7 Y; C; m5 C3 Qbenchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented
* _! [3 l8 l4 g* [4 B2 pincluding a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard- j: |+ j3 B- R/ L
condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.0 W6 J$ u9 i% l3 l# |# @2 `
For example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership
3 `' c- ~7 D% |) Jcosts, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50
: g1 W5 a$ @$ t6 J/ yper cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.% ~& L; [' E& |9 h" r5 ~
2 x7 _5 o" K, _" x <<
" w7 {8 f. E8 ?# ~ Highlights from across Canada:, u! v, ~$ s% ]
! f* C+ p" q( z/ p- e3 r1 j) b
- Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has$ Q. I9 h/ I/ Z. P# ]+ p1 ^
intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing- k! _0 d* p3 a8 B8 ]
home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound
. c& u) @- f: j/ ?5 m) A, ` only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track
% J4 G: { x$ q* n9 X6 [3 w" x& d since about the middle of 2007.3 Z. Y* y0 e) V ~
- Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the' ]" G0 J; H$ R6 L. r
frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to
* }$ G2 u3 A @, Y; n3 z) E decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still
- y, x1 g+ h6 q& I9 |1 F/ l largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely
4 i' n* M. n! L poor affordability levels.4 [: k! ]& G9 ~7 H1 R
- Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the X" _; _/ M- u% [% W; t
vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and
* y |' c& l; ? prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.' a8 a- C( P1 j( e
Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to
( h/ e \7 I; ^7 D' v5 P4 F minimize any downside risks.3 F* N& o! ]1 ]( O/ R4 x4 V. Z
- Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market
: n4 \5 O- v8 p" }5 g1 K; G conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is
" P5 F5 ?8 w0 b0 S$ _# T/ k unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early
" S$ Q& f' {) k5 I2 r. }/ O* N 1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly
; U7 @2 n) C3 z9 \+ ?! @( ^! ? being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.
- _' x5 H% U% V% o4 ] - Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in
) O$ Y9 m) R8 c Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus3 P: d6 P" V$ B6 V
far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up
+ C0 D' f$ `! R c. J2 M8 N reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be1 P5 A& y" A9 D/ s0 ?: ]- O# C
ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only
* k, ]0 s7 O: t modestly in recent years.9 O0 Q" C- N" B7 J! @, V" Q! q
- Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the
0 p/ d* w- ~" u& W4 l6 l! | general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot
' L& E z% \- e5 l& j; Y- O! j spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward
8 y1 w7 j5 Q7 G% i' Z price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability
' ^' x8 U! e, s$ U) p# @% M following two years of deterioration.& c& I% u$ n* {" r
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