顶着锅盖来问问~~

山水秀

我对房子完全不懂。。。。父母说想我再这里买。。。问了些人，有些说再等，有些说买。每个都好像专家，我是菜鸟，不懂什么。。。脑袋都要大了。。大家帮忙分析下，谢谢

gracexn

你都已经问过了，再让别人分析也是枉然。你的问题不是找专家，是自己的决断力。何况你的情况自己最清楚。

四海为家

本人的观点是，根据自己的情况，找自己喜欢的房子，在能够承受的范围内就下手，我们普通老百姓不是做房地产买卖，我想第一要素还是自己享受。不要总想着抄底儿，第一你不一定抄的到，第二，每个房的情况都不一样，有的时候看到你自己喜欢的房，如果你不下手，人家就会下手，不会只有你一个人对某个房看上眼，你喜欢的房也不是给你一个人准备的！呵呵～～纯属个人意见，仅供参考！！

appleman

同意楼上，现在算是个平衡市，后市可左可右，所以只能自己拿主意啦。

lmyczh

I made an estimation of recent new construction house and found that the profit of builder is still in the range of  20 to 30%. For example, for a house of $500,000. Cost of labour, material, project management is less than $400k. At today's market, it is not reasonable.

Recently, material cost and labour cost have been droping. The demand for residential construction material from south (USA) is very low due to over supply of house.

Personally, the house price will continue to drop for additional 10% from today's value. Be patient.

zbyf

我也在等，底不底的先不说，至少不会向前两年那样大涨，所以等一等也没什么。

everywhere

6# zbyf

6 F! o% Y: Z! e( \. s5 ]( l同意你的见解.

用户

本人的观点是，根据自己的情况，找自己喜欢的房子，在能够承受的范围内就下手，我们普通老百姓不是做房地产买卖，我想第一要素还是自己享受。不要总想着抄底儿，第一你不一定抄的到，第二，每个房的情况都不一样，有 ...
四海为家 发表于 2009-5-25 07:58 PM

' N$ `( k. B6 j9 U' ~- }8 r
& ]& e5 {) C; R比较务实的看法. 我也觉得抄底的事大概和自己无缘.

Bluesky_AL

) v7 ?! W1 U/ J 5# lmyczh
it looks true ideally. but i don't think that would happen in the next year. Except the extreme condition, the price probably will drop, but won't be that far (like 10%).

I am not  eco major.. but just curious of the way of your calculation. 20-30% for profit? You must be kidding me. A  business with 10% return rate can be considered really good business. For a new house, don't forget the cost of the lot, plus some other nonprofit investments (like school, traffic control etc).

2 P7 N3 L+ b8 V8 r3 A: A  dNow a lot of builders already ceased their projects under the such condition, if the situation is keep going like this, how many houses (include new and used) will be on the market after one year ? and don't forget the effect of the inflation (3-4% per year).
8 U+ Z! T! e; E9 J
The gas price is going up now.. Oil projects will be recovered in a short term..

10% drop for the hose price? In my point of view, that's just a joke....

lmyczh

9# Bluesky_AL
- H4 S1 a2 @# W/ x1 c' R
Lot Price =$150k (including school, facilities,etc)
Labour and Material = 2000 (sq.ft) * $80/sq.ft = $160,000

9 l9 p( y+ m2 r* H" M" q5 W7 `' YProject management (20% L&M) =$160,000  * 20% =$32,000

GST =0 (To be rebated by Builder)

9 c, m& D4 p* f( I% G' MCost before profit =$342k
$ x6 a! p  t: t+ U0 o  d
Market price = $420k
, U0 }% v5 o$ j, I: ^' ^2 r5 A, n
* A9 ~/ M# ?$ z2 m% m5 {Net Profit = $420k - $342 =$78k
1 q$ u$ K# Y' Z7 @! d" W
- K) |0 p* r# T- T) HRate of Profit (Builder) = $78k / ($160 + $32) = 40.625%
7 k( ]1 |1 ]. E) v0 E
Rate of profit based on total price = $78k / $420k = 18.57%

" L# q6 y" ?; t! Y' f' u4 I( t3 E(For information only)

Bluesky_AL

10# lmyczh


that's clearly. thanks for sharing.. :). But I have to say, the price is dropping.. I just can't believe can drop that far.

Just remember, if price even doesn't go up, it is already equal to dropped already. Don't forget inflation rate.

figo

恩。。。。。看来还是得等。。。。。

zbyf

我也不是学经济的，但是如果经济现在就复苏的话，那些经济专家为什么说是百年不遇的呢。

山水秀

最近又被洗脑一下。。。买房啊，不搞到精疲力竭那是不行的。。。。。。。经济会差就意味着房价回跌~~~算了，我还是等等吧。。。谁叫我是穷人呢

山水秀

还有一个问题就是，怎么都不明白，为什么我直接去找开发商谈得价格，比那些卖房子的书啊，经济阿，便宜很多。。。而且房子全新。。。。。之前问过一个中国经济，名字不说了。。。一个我看中的房子，给的价格。。。。。呵呵，天价形容不为过。。。。

mont_hy

哎呀，白费不少脑细胞。我买房子就像去大统华买东西一样，前后一个小时就搞定。先看一下，后面很多人等着，如果稍微犹豫就到backup的位子了，于是马上下楼签字，当时没带deposit的空白支票，builder同意先欠着，第二天给他送去了。这个6月中搬家。