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发表于 2009-7-15 17:02
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 Will 5-Year Mortgage Rates Fall Further?
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Banks last raised mortgage rates on June 9, when the 5-year bond yield was at 2.68%.1 G- P$ S3 k1 @' F$ J
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Since then, the 5-year yield (which guides fixed mortgage pricing) has fallen to 2.44%, but bank rates have not budged.. C2 Q! y2 i- R" Q
9 O) k, ~0 [2 Y9 x, M' A! w* o4 sBMO economist, Doug Porter, told the Toronto Star it’s because banks "want to be convinced that it is not a flash in the pan and that any retreat in yields is sustained." 0 T% D3 D# j$ Y, V* t- d
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He says: "I believe that we are probably not too far away from that point. It might take a little more of a deeper rally (in bond prices) to make it completely convincing."+ G# c" M) t- ]5 I& @3 l
% |% q2 \2 Q* H+ U! |6 Q) |( x* UThe often quoted CIBC economist, Benjamin Tal, thinks yields could fall another 0.05% to 0.10%, but any drop in fixed-rates will be short-lived. "By the end of the year, we'll start seeing rates rising," he says.
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If rates do drop another 0.10%, it would translate into a $5.50 monthly payment savings for every $100,000 of mortgage. That’s a total savings of $478 over five years, assuming a 25-year amortization and typical fixed rates.
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3 R2 {8 c! `- e, j" Y% MBut remember, trying to time bond and mortgage rates is financially hazardous. While you’re waiting, rates can move the wrong way—quickly. 5 D0 r. u1 Z4 [3 U. i+ P: H
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You’re usually better served by focusing on factors that can dwarf a 0.10% rate savings, like finding a mortgage with the optimal term and just the right amount of flexibility (pre-payment options, openness, readvanceability, etc.). Too much flexibility is a waste, and too little can cost you in the long-run. |
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