固定利率会回调吗？ 这是一个问题

年轻的心

' F; S3 ?. Y' K; @
Yields Down. Rates, Not So Much
4 G+ M( O' Z0 C5 `
Canada’s 5-year bond yield closed near a 3-week low today, settling at 2.43%.  That’s down from its June 10 high of 2.81%.


* o/ B+ h9 u( v9 R& H


# [) D- {6 c( |0 OWhile there’s been a noticeable dip in yields, there hasn’t been much reduction in 5-year fixed mortgage rates (which track yields).  
+ z* V+ g3 S. P
  w% I! |4 h. N; {% V3 o; f" EAt the most, we’ve seen a few non-bank lenders drop 5-year rates by 0.10% lately.  The Big 5 banks have not lowered advertised rates at all.

! `# g8 T( d$ Y; s3 r$ o! b, g- ^) [1 iOne lender sent an email today suggesting that banks have changed their focus from aggregating clients to profitability. Given the banks just went through a vicious market share war, they may be less inclined to discount rates now with only four months to hit their year-end income targets.
The lender went on to say: “There may be some movement soon, but banks are ensuring bond prices stay consistent before they make a move.”
; ?4 l5 T; Z- h, O- D% m

Smokie

appleman

Who knows? But now the prime rate is in the history bottom for sure.

年轻的心

Will 5-Year Mortgage Rates Fall Further?
$ X. h: S$ c  S4 d, M
Banks last raised mortgage rates on June 9, when the 5-year bond yield was at 2.68%.
) u! F( `  W' h9 D% {; `+ r
Since then, the 5-year yield (which guides fixed mortgage pricing) has fallen to 2.44%, but bank rates have not budged.

BMO economist, Doug Porter, told the Toronto Star it’s because banks "want to be convinced that it is not a flash in the pan and that any retreat in yields is sustained."

: _4 y; ]7 j0 }He says: "I believe that we are probably not too far away from that point. It might take a little more of a deeper rally (in bond prices) to make it completely convincing."
- t2 h0 j8 ]4 }1 R% k' ~- u
6 V6 w- A2 z7 `& T; }The often quoted CIBC economist, Benjamin Tal, thinks yields could fall another 0.05% to 0.10%, but any drop in fixed-rates will be short-lived. "By the end of the year, we'll start seeing rates rising," he says.

4 D/ c  q5 f  bIf rates do drop another 0.10%, it would translate into a $5.50 monthly payment savings for every $100,000 of mortgage. That’s a total savings of $478 over five years, assuming a 25-year amortization and typical fixed rates.

But remember, trying to time bond and mortgage rates is financially hazardous.  While you’re waiting, rates can move the wrong way—quickly.  
. c% d+ S2 m( u
# [/ t5 L# Q# o5 NYou’re usually better served by focusing on factors that can dwarf a 0.10% rate savings, like finding a mortgage with the optimal term and just the right amount of flexibility (pre-payment options, openness, readvanceability, etc.).  Too much flexibility is a waste, and too little can cost you in the long-run.

今晚打老虎

到底涨了还是降了呢？
+ X( d/ T" h1 z6 K+ u, ~# ~5年锁定利率现在差不多都到5％了把？