宗教將在九個國家絕跡

2012AD

澳洲, 奧地利, 加拿大, 捷克, 芬蘭, 愛爾蘭, 荷蘭, 新西蘭, 瑞士

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6 h1 V. _, m5 R5 j- w% j  H0 uhttp://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-12811197

3 Y: q$ u& W5 x( F22 March 2011 Last updated at 03:31 ET Share this pageFacebookTwitter ShareEmail Print Religion may become extinct in nine nations, study saysBy Jason Palmer

Science and technology reporter, BBC News, Dallas

A study using census data from nine countries shows that religion there is set for extinction, say researchers.

The study found a steady rise in those claiming no religious affiliation.

* t2 m( i3 a) x: |, ~The team\'s mathematical model attempts to account for the interplay between the number of religious respondents and the social motives behind being one.

9 D7 }4 K) W4 e1 _7 h0 YThe result, reported at the American Physical Society meeting in Dallas, US, indicates that religion will all but die out altogether in those countries.
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; F' j, w3 I; K/ d; F7 KThe team took census data stretching back as far as a century from countries in which the census queried religious affiliation: Australia, Austria, Canada, the Czech Republic, Finland, Ireland, the Netherlands, New Zealand and Switzerland.

- N) A+ i; d# y1 T7 X1 A: BTheir means of analysing the data invokes what is known as nonlinear dynamics - a mathematical approach that has been used to explain a wide range of physical phenomena in which a number of factors play a part.

One of the team, Daniel Abrams of Northwestern University, put forth a similar model in 2003 to put a numerical basis behind the decline of lesser-spoken world languages.

% }9 U1 c9 v) b/ |3 h: fAt its heart is the competition between speakers of different languages, and the \"utility\" of speaking one instead of another.
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. C5 K0 n2 F% g1 l\"The idea is pretty simple,\" said Richard Wiener of the Research Corporation for Science Advancement, and the University of Arizona.

' D( c) B& @9 x\"It posits that social groups that have more members are going to be more attractive to join, and it posits that social groups have a social status or utility.
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0 K) A+ Q' q9 D\"For example in languages, there can be greater utility or status in speaking Spanish instead of [the dying language] Quechuan in Peru, and similarly there\'s some kind of status or utility in being a member of a religion or not.\"
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Dr Wiener continued: \"In a large number of modern secular democracies, there\'s been a trend that folk are identifying themselves as non-affiliated with religion; in the Netherlands the number was 40%, and the highest we saw was in the Czech Republic, where the number was 60%.\"

The team then applied their nonlinear dynamics model, adjusting parameters for the relative social and utilitarian merits of membership of the \"non-religious\" category.

0 j# O" p0 |0 [4 L7 ^0 fThey found, in a study published online, that those parameters were similar across all the countries studied, suggesting that similar behaviour drives the mathematics in all of them.
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And in all the countries, the indications were that religion was headed toward extinction.
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However, Dr Wiener told the conference that the team was working to update the model with a \"network structure\" more representative of the one at work in the world.
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\"Obviously we don\'t really believe this is the network structure of a modern society, where each person is influenced equally by all the other people in society,\" he said.

9 M/ A9 a  o4 X2 J  NHowever, he told BBC News that he thought it was \"a suggestive result\".

" j. b% o5 Z8 b& Z6 |\"It\'s interesting that a fairly simple model captures the data, and if those simple ideas are correct, it suggests where this might be going.

0 }# `* L, M8 w; }3 V: o\"Obviously much more complicated things are going on with any one individual, but maybe a lot of that averages out.\"

2012AD

基督教在大多数西方国家已经走向没落。现代基督教的发展主要是靠蒙骗落后的发展中国家。

Onesimus1970

2# 2012AD
' w8 @/ k8 K, J" }6 Z& z什么时候在加拿大绝迹? 我们好把宗版给关了.

路德使女

You don't need to close it, it will be expanding for ever.

historian

1# 2012AD


不同意。人脑存在，宗教就存在。

tigerkiller

看来是在国内的时候，政治和哲学没学好。连事物的发展是螺旋式的都不知道。什么事物的发展都是有高潮有低潮。哪有直线式的。