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鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-17 13:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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下面是九月八号Conference call 对市场评论的总结,贴出来,希望对大家有帮助。
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) H6 B; B" s' g. U5 q' D$ @9 Y* HMarket Commentary3 H# f( W7 F% r1 [# X: p' }
Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer1 d0 h6 ?8 w) s5 }8 X, H' V
James Dutkiewicz, Portfolio Manager
. F- U% t2 @6 iSignature Global Advisors
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7 `  `+ }5 q, w  a7 U; i+ w" ~4 S/ u  r9 [! F4 T8 D
Background remarks
/ l0 w) o1 u. Q4 O3 C; ? Governments’ costs associated with stabilizing the crisis, including recent government stimulus programs, are& y7 g/ J8 ~; ?+ A
as much as 20% or even 60% of GDP.# Y0 Y; R$ N$ M
 Some governments have reached limits of sustainable debt loads and markets are beginning to insist on fiscal
8 q9 |9 w+ y, x( e5 wadjustments.; a) {7 A; o6 K3 u; h5 [
 This marks the beginning of what will be a turbulent social and political period, where elements of the social8 s' ]' b6 x3 k+ d4 P
safety nets in Western economies are no longer affordable and must be defunded.
2 O" E% R) U$ q6 a/ l Templates for fiscal adjustment are appearing in peripheral and core Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere. There are2 n& B3 H2 k2 m* H
lessons to be learned from the frontrunners.* e" {% }$ u# K6 K" j; P9 o& ^
 We see policy interventions playing a bigger role in financial markets. Policymakers are trying to ease these
& s0 U' w% f$ m* \  e% Radjustments for governments and consumers as they deleverage.
' q' X( w  z5 d1 X Policy interventions are shaping markets more than fundamentals. Examples include the U.S. Federal Reserve’s7 T$ J# o$ u5 w
quantitative easing (QE2) program and the ECB intervention in the European sovereign bond market.0 P7 o5 M4 E2 H) T5 K6 Z
 Developed financial markets have now priced in lower levels of economic growth.) g* e1 r; L3 z! ]# D) d
 Credit markets are now less resilient to shocks because of Basel III and the Dodd-Frank bill. Brokers have* _% p& F7 Z7 G, I; [4 Z
reduced capacity to hold risk. Therefore, risk shedding by others is going to have a greater impact.
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:16 | 显示全部楼层
Current situation
" `) u; E$ u* N+ I8 ]) X# Y5 n The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long& P& M9 O" G6 G. X
as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
/ E* P' {! G; N8 }% g0 \" o' Oimpose liquidation values.
. \+ H6 e* d; Q In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In! j) b  Y9 T3 B$ R
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.8 m7 E6 M( j3 r9 `
 The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension7 N6 R2 r9 _5 ^! _# Z* J
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.1 k# D3 {  }# c$ _% C5 _- t

5 s3 q( _& q6 G0 eA look at credit markets$ u, B  g4 D/ W% D2 P; C2 e5 y) p' N
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in
2 W, E( H- W. s3 x- M" E2 kSeptember. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven.5 j( l6 W5 N  e+ J
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%- z2 ^9 d( c; d2 e
then, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $1" H4 r4 M0 t6 A+ k1 m2 d
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have
2 M6 o3 r3 r5 |+ U) saccess to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade4 c0 u3 Z) y3 _! C9 x% @. F) g# n
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
) _8 z4 U& ^- b: K' u& \+ Bpositive for the year-do-date, including high yield.
: L+ h, N) b/ n; ?! O Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
5 d7 F. w! E7 s9 Bfinding financing.
9 e! F% Y8 S  |3 _% h Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they, Z# f0 i. J  Z% b  |% U, ~. A
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.$ i& x  ]0 y1 x: J: m
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and- e* b5 K2 l$ ]
is now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were9 H3 Z' N" U3 }- A: \5 j. H% |8 j
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for* u/ y, m) D% L6 c' w# H
bankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.# k0 u* v' k0 K  }- f4 O& ?+ F
 European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
; ?" O/ J0 [; k$ K. ^) E9 |today.1 g& q7 J( _) u3 b/ I- f$ e9 S
 Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in
  ~0 ^/ S" e! J) x* d. n2 zemerging markets have no problem with funding.
大型搬家
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2011-9-17 13:18 | 显示全部楼层
European Union agenda1 {  F8 y, P) T, P1 b
 Europe is frantic and will remain so for at least another four months – which is what we see as the timeline for
$ S: p2 y% Z5 Bthe Greek default.# I, \( ^5 O( }3 ]* o* P; w. Q# L- ?
 As we see it, the following firewalls need to be put in place:, X0 A1 x& m) b- U# K: g8 J$ z% }
1. Making sure that banks have enough capital and deposit insurance to survive a Greek default
- {3 S4 p2 M  |* ~4 U. _8 v2. The European Financial Stability Facility, which is to be used for the bank capital injection and sovereign4 Q7 q0 |* d! q5 p4 u  X
debt stabilization, needs government approvals.8 A$ j+ D$ H# {! U# _* \5 }) ]! h$ E
3. Measures of assistance to help European banks to make $1.7 trillion in refinancing easier and allowing4 @* m' m. ~& S# e0 ]. d% T
banks to shrink their balance sheets over three years
5 \* F6 R. p0 T8 O4. More fiscal reform for Spain, Italy and France is a precondition for stable sovereign debt markets.
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Beyond Greece
# A! I. K4 j- u& R) i" \  m The EFSF #2 plan announced in July was a toolkit to deal with the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain),
7 f: N# s7 f$ N( Fbut that was before Italy.
2 M" I" t: w# P/ I It provided a $500-billion loan program, but $250 billion was already spoken for by the PIGS.
% o0 {% y3 r) I It’s an undersized framework and if negative growth/interest rate dynamics keep investors from sponsoring the5 s* T, F- r4 u0 s2 m
Italian bond market, the EU crisis will escalate further.
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Conclusion
+ S) |% t4 A* z We want to have safeguards in place and continue to be liquid, so that we can capitalize on future turbulence.
鲜花(7) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2011-9-19 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
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