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发表于 2011-9-17 13:16
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Current situation
' a( H' }2 p" l8 C The lesson we learned from the 2008-2009 credit crunch is how credit markets affect stock valuations. As long
6 @4 L/ R1 T7 ~as funding markets stay open, equities are valued as going concerns. But if credit markets close, markets may
6 {4 V3 t% S8 C& nimpose liquidation values.- s- k/ j8 L7 I$ q: c, J3 X+ b
 In the summer, the European credit crisis caused another round of market worries about a credit shutdown. In* o$ w: a' A5 Z
August, we said a credit shutdown was unlikely – we continue to hold that view.
; B2 W& o0 \) K6 |7 I The collapse of interest rates on 10-year Treasuries to 2% leaves banks, insurance companies and pension4 ^1 I" B1 L6 W, e
scrambling for higher yields to satisfy their obligations – this is supportive of corporate bond markets.4 Z0 A! g# x" @1 [* I; w
' F' F* }' F1 ?5 K$ Q
A look at credit markets7 t z% _8 h8 L9 }6 G, o$ x( @% [5 d
 Investment grade – $17 billion in new issues were placed last Wednesday. We’re expecting $80-$100 billion in7 i" L( A: y% {1 H
September. Non-financial investment grade is the new safe haven., \ K3 D# @7 V0 S% h5 Q
 High yield – In March, the spread above governments was 450 basis points, today it’s 740 bps. Yields were 7%
' P# q, l5 ^/ h5 ithen, now they are 8.5%. New issuance has been about $30 billion a month, although August saw only $10 Z1 B' | s# v/ ^
billion. That said, the market is still open. Risk has been repriced – but appropriately priced issues still have7 ^: p& t. q* M1 j/ U8 Z
access to the market. There are only two parts of the global bond market having difficulty – ultra-low-grade* i( Y K8 { F6 K) h8 d) M
CCC issues and European high yield, which are both down about 2.5% year-to-date. All other bond markets are
1 a: E3 d) C4 gpositive for the year-do-date, including high yield.. J( J4 n1 x. t4 L0 _+ Y2 P
 Mortgages – There is no funding for new construction, but existing quality properties are having no trouble
5 l/ y' r8 V1 V5 J0 Tfinding financing.
* ?" g( M' @! i. f( I- Q1 s2 j C% \ Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) – In the summer, there were two failed transactions, but they2 ]9 g% ]9 Q7 |4 a6 t3 ^
were subsequently repriced and placed. In the fall, there will be more deals.7 V, k1 m$ I5 g6 Q6 O
 Leveraged floating rate collateralized loans – The index was trading at $90 last September, $96 in March and
- N6 K: T6 K- d- S4 Kis now back to $90. Changes were a result of interest rate expectations (people thought that interest rates were; C. `' v# t* N
going up) rather than liquidity. Chapter 11 companies have no problem getting secured and when they file for
+ K7 b: ]4 I! Pbankruptcy, they already have debt financing in place.
6 M9 E- c' c+ _/ _; u European banks – European bank lending conditions are tighter. This is the weakest link in the financial chain
- W* m" |- ~. e5 ^) e! K! V: Otoday.
; z; z) M1 X, T Emerging markets – Sovereign rates have rallied along with U.S. Treasuries. High-grade corporates in: n& @, g/ H) G2 I# v/ e
emerging markets have no problem with funding. |
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