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欢迎讨论, 但千万别拍砖. m3 H+ T5 J4 M% `3 t7 b- v1 ^
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http://www.globalnews.ca/money/w ... 42638608/story.html2 b) p% ^. ^& ^' u
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OTTAWA - For most Canadians their home is the biggest investment they'll ever make — but they might be surprised to learn you can use if for more than just sleeping., x ? S* T& `) o- n
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People generally don't think of their homes as a potential pile of cash in the bank, but experts say it's something worth pondering now that home prices in Canada may have hit their peak.3 i$ x/ K. W$ ]9 g/ p6 b$ X
! w9 s/ V( f/ b, t% d8 bIn fact, analysts say if finance is the only consideration, conditions now and into next year or so form a seldom seen sweet spot for using home equity as a type of asset for investment.
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9 V3 J) P7 L0 c B' lWhy might it be a good time to sell?
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At about $370,000 average nationally — and just under $800,000 in Vancouver — home prices are already at record levels. Many observers believe prices are long due for a downward correction of anywhere from 10 per cent to 25 per cent, perhaps more in some of the hottest markets.0 s# o, i' t! u; [
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"Home prices to income, housing price to rent, all the indicators are setting off warning signals," said Derek Burleton, a senior economist with TD Bank.! O) v9 l: J+ }4 Y
6 X( v6 B5 p, J, X"If you are purely in it for reaping profits, now is not a bad time to sell" before prices drop.$ T3 W$ b0 U0 S# T5 x- [$ I: {
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The profits from selling a home can be used to build savings, eliminate debt, make traditional investments or, ironically, buy more real estate — albeit in a different market where home prices are lower.
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3 _/ s1 T* C/ r6 M& tOf course, even if it makes sense financially, selling the family home to rent or move to a less expensive housing market doesn't make lifestyle sense for the vast majority of Canadians.* H. z! J& _! b3 S
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Burleton knows how they feel.2 o: s4 l# m8 _" G! K2 V( ?1 }
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"I wouldn't want to sell my home right now even if I wind up taking a hit on the home price, just because I enjoy where I'm living and moving is a pain," he said.
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) C6 N. G3 V/ a# [While there's no guarantee of a correction, observers note there are additional signs that the housing market could cool off in a big way.
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" B! I1 n) G# w v' h8 {With ownership levels near a record 70 per cent, demand is expected to wane, making it a buyers market for the first time in years.. E- B4 Y7 {; ]9 P* ~
# S/ }) G& _2 D; ?( ~8 N- k7 x& }/ bAnd Bank of Canada governor Mark Carney warned last month he was preparing to hike rates, which along with tighter lending rules being applied by federal authorities could trigger a flight from real estate.+ C) ?& b0 v4 T4 t* _
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In market terms, selling a home at the peak is a way of "locking in" profits accumulated over the past decade of price appreciation — and tax free if it's the principal home.+ f4 T+ }" t! v# w# N' Q" K
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Meanwhile, home valuations have been rising far faster than the rent they would fetch since at least 2000. Canada's home price-to-rent ratio is well above historic norms and among the highest in the advanced world.2 e. e2 R/ {+ l: ]
) ~* J |0 G' PThat is a hard indicator that homes are over-valued, but also that renting is relatively cheap compared to buying.
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4 }' r5 B/ | [David Madani of Capital Economics, who anticipates a 25 per cent price crash over the next few years, cautions that like selling stock shares, timing is always tricky.
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"We're dealing with irrational exuberance. We've been treating housing like some magical financial asset that is going to solve all our problems because prices are always going up," he said.- Q( f# w" _3 n+ |/ I* B
5 ~% R* ]% I1 _4 r% u"Of course, when the turn comes, the over-confidence that drove the market up can turn to fear. You are dealing with emotion ... so I don't believe in a soft landing."
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5 v2 [2 d' w6 ]The market is clearly at or near peak, he said, so soon may indeed be the time to act." u) Y X# n; d6 a
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But then again he felt that way a year ago, he points out, and if households had acted on his advice they might not have gotten all the value they could from the premature sale. |
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发表于 2012-5-12 08:39
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