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5 ~2 H, E# d) G, @http://www.globalnews.ca/money/w ... 42638608/story.html
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OTTAWA - For most Canadians their home is the biggest investment they'll ever make — but they might be surprised to learn you can use if for more than just sleeping.
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' D( L" P: s4 p% Q3 y p- u4 cPeople generally don't think of their homes as a potential pile of cash in the bank, but experts say it's something worth pondering now that home prices in Canada may have hit their peak.
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/ M# S Y( q1 I. I" a8 vIn fact, analysts say if finance is the only consideration, conditions now and into next year or so form a seldom seen sweet spot for using home equity as a type of asset for investment.$ N A: ?- u5 e" N( s H
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Why might it be a good time to sell? `) G+ n5 v9 s$ w5 U8 s( I
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At about $370,000 average nationally — and just under $800,000 in Vancouver — home prices are already at record levels. Many observers believe prices are long due for a downward correction of anywhere from 10 per cent to 25 per cent, perhaps more in some of the hottest markets./ D$ G, j- W/ ?. w3 f
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"Home prices to income, housing price to rent, all the indicators are setting off warning signals," said Derek Burleton, a senior economist with TD Bank.
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5 l) E6 D1 m3 M"If you are purely in it for reaping profits, now is not a bad time to sell" before prices drop.
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8 n/ Y) p9 ]0 r: `The profits from selling a home can be used to build savings, eliminate debt, make traditional investments or, ironically, buy more real estate — albeit in a different market where home prices are lower.6 y+ z& d$ s6 Z6 \) Y
: P Q) w8 y. D" Y! @) ?Of course, even if it makes sense financially, selling the family home to rent or move to a less expensive housing market doesn't make lifestyle sense for the vast majority of Canadians.
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Burleton knows how they feel.$ |* T- J: h# u1 l
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"I wouldn't want to sell my home right now even if I wind up taking a hit on the home price, just because I enjoy where I'm living and moving is a pain," he said.
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$ \/ E7 Q2 I2 E" w) t/ kWhile there's no guarantee of a correction, observers note there are additional signs that the housing market could cool off in a big way.
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0 C5 b8 ^6 Y9 T& W5 xWith ownership levels near a record 70 per cent, demand is expected to wane, making it a buyers market for the first time in years.0 m/ [. a8 W' ^7 I' _! h3 j
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And Bank of Canada governor Mark Carney warned last month he was preparing to hike rates, which along with tighter lending rules being applied by federal authorities could trigger a flight from real estate.
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, `2 W( `' c/ q, O9 J' a rIn market terms, selling a home at the peak is a way of "locking in" profits accumulated over the past decade of price appreciation — and tax free if it's the principal home.
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3 | v2 R! C4 T3 E+ ZMeanwhile, home valuations have been rising far faster than the rent they would fetch since at least 2000. Canada's home price-to-rent ratio is well above historic norms and among the highest in the advanced world.& e: f0 v4 z, W% {& o
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That is a hard indicator that homes are over-valued, but also that renting is relatively cheap compared to buying.7 ]5 X+ }3 Q9 D2 w) _+ n
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David Madani of Capital Economics, who anticipates a 25 per cent price crash over the next few years, cautions that like selling stock shares, timing is always tricky.
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"We're dealing with irrational exuberance. We've been treating housing like some magical financial asset that is going to solve all our problems because prices are always going up," he said.+ [3 H1 y3 r+ O9 l9 x
; T+ U1 g, T$ m7 ~/ u$ D4 @"Of course, when the turn comes, the over-confidence that drove the market up can turn to fear. You are dealing with emotion ... so I don't believe in a soft landing."6 e) ?1 Z- K @% V, X5 q
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The market is clearly at or near peak, he said, so soon may indeed be the time to act.
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) K# N K( y. q/ |But then again he felt that way a year ago, he points out, and if households had acted on his advice they might not have gotten all the value they could from the premature sale. |
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发表于 2012-5-12 08:39
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