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发表于 2012-8-14 00:55
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其实比饶毅更牛的回复是 Upenn 的 LAI JIANG( ]* P {9 q5 h% h$ X0 I
如果是中国长大的,英语能到这种程度真是很不简单。
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1 a( f: o0 P, \! X- R, |) N) Ehttp://www.sas.upenn.edu/rappegroup/htdocs/People/LJ.html
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4 z N. `7 t$ IFROM LAI JIANG, Department of Chemistry, University of Pennsylvania+ `+ \6 f- ?" u! I. N+ H
i" i" h4 s) v+ f2 I& c( b9 yIt is a shame to see Nature — which nearly all scientists, including myself
) P0 Q& ~1 N2 P, regard as one of the most prestigious and influential physical-science. y; n1 @( l& a6 L. s k
magazines — publish a thinly veiled biased article like this. Granted, this. ?# \8 r5 F9 ]- [' {
is not a peer-reviewed scientific article and did not go through the
' d0 D. B/ g m: tscrutiny of picking referees. But to serve as a channel for the general# w2 ^* H8 c. q" h! t- z6 c9 t
populace to be in touch with and appreciate science, the authors and editors1 u" z6 J; G/ f9 ?. O
should at least present the readers with facts within the proper context,; [* `4 ?2 P" D" m% e5 E' s; D
which they blatantly failed to do.
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First, to identify Ye’s performance increase, Ewen Callaway compared her
& |7 }# h, g0 X. rOlympic 400-metre IM time with her performance at the World Championships in$ U0 n6 ^6 z( w9 Q. @ Q
2011 (4:28.43 and 4:35.15, respectively) and concluded that she had an “9 B% I+ }* u% Y$ C& y* I) {# ~
anomalous” improvement of around 7 seconds (6.72 s). In fact, her previous
7 e8 @/ n; E7 o4 v$ bpersonal best was 4:33.79 at the Asian Games in 2010. This leads to an# f2 N z7 g+ C9 B8 j8 z
improvement of 5.38 seconds. In a sporting event in which 0.1 s can be the) j; f5 t, @* O+ Y0 X1 Z! @
difference between the gold and silver medal, I see no reason for 5.38 s to% b$ q$ s& g, Z0 @( U% Q D" t
be treated as 7 s.
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) q( P) i% T5 FSecond, as previously pointed out, Ye is only 16 years old and her body is
6 _8 c* S$ _3 G' w3 @' Wstill developing. Bettering oneself by 5 seconds over two years may seem3 @* W' H& e. n2 H8 E3 P
impossible for an adult swimmer, but it certainly happens among youngsters.) @7 u/ O1 c4 Z" G( K0 k9 W1 Q6 ^
An interview with Australian gold medallist Ian Thorpe revealed that his 4006 x. ^9 x6 e& F7 G) S! N; h3 R
-metre freestyle time improved by 5 seconds between the ages of 15 and 16.
7 U+ ]! M; X7 c& K& M" K% @For regular people, including Callaway, it may be hard to imagine what an
! k$ w8 S9 U/ Pelite swimmer can achieve as he or she matures and undergoes scientific and0 e9 u. W. u+ c) i( i1 m; ~# j
persistent training. But jumping to the conclusion that it is “anomalous”. Y; W9 Z; z% V/ o/ ?8 c% ], _
based on ‘Oh that’s so tough I cannot imagine it is real’ is hardly sound.1 z+ y: \( T0 f' v# p
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Third, to compare Ryan Lochte’s last 50 metres to Ye’s is a textbook* Q" i- T2 H; Q, y9 H9 ]0 j2 A5 ` o
example of ‘cherry-picking’ your data. Yes, Lochte was slower than Ye in: Z( q7 i" _) `2 Q5 f. t
the last 50 metres, but Lochte had a huge lead in the first 300 metres, so$ ~3 u) n* ^+ h" K! F
he chose not to push himself too hard and to conserve his energy for later
! n2 o, U1 J% R) o2 ~/ b7 r1 |events (whether this conforms to the Olympic spirit and the ‘use one’s/ w2 q8 Y4 c4 B% ~
best efforts to win a match’ requirement that the Badminton World2 C' Q8 K* F! n
Federation recently invoked to disqualify four badminton pairs is another
3 s3 Y- q1 ]7 L' ]topic worth discussing, though probably not in Nature). Ye, on the other( U0 t+ R6 W1 a+ G
hand, was trailing behind after the first 300 metres and relied on freestyle
7 T% G5 j' G0 h# C( d. P7 q, in which she has an edge, to win the race. Failing to mention this
1 V, ]; o- f" i/ }3 \: y1 p: vstrategic difference, as well as the fact that Lochte is 23.25 seconds
" l+ ~$ O! ?7 Z& }/ g7 ]- Afaster (4:05.18) than Ye overall, creates the illusion that a woman swam6 b; a* D# Q: R( V& D, r- v1 A
faster than the best man in the same sport, which sounds impossible. Putting: `& O9 g7 A$ H3 V q% r" h
aside the gender argument, I believe this is still a leading question that
d+ f: s7 v4 S* S. Z& o$ ]! c2 Y* bimplies to the reader that there is something fishy going on.
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! q% J9 A: g' U, U1 E% nFourth is another example of cherry-picking. In the same event, there are1 l% Z# w3 y, g$ C! }) k
four male swimmers who swam faster than both Lochter (29.10 s) and Ye (28.93
! C0 T! p- d% v0 p: V2 @2 Os) in the final 50 metres: Kosuke Hagino (28.52 s), Michael Phelps (28.44 s
; |5 L6 R# p$ G- \, j), Yuya Horihata (27.87 s) and Thomas Fraser-Holmes (28.35 s). As it turns
/ P# x4 c: V0 @# A6 G, Vout, if we are just talking about the last 50 metres in a 400-metre IM,) r6 I4 i; l+ E8 n) e1 Y {& [
Lochter is not the example I would have used if I were the author. What kind3 G( U8 J' { Q
of scientific rigorousness is Callaway trying to demonstrate here? Is it9 I" c8 ^7 V& F X" W
logical that if Lochter is the champion, we should assume that he leads in* ~& ~+ y, t; a! Z6 t" B8 R7 F
every split? That would be a terrible way to teach the public how science
- f% z2 q; c4 j/ S9 B Bworks.( B. P/ U4 Y+ V, S0 L% d K
4 k* [( w9 `, D2 T" LFifth is the issue I oppose the most. Callaway quotes Ross Tucker and
/ c$ `1 n- H: Q6 X) Bimplies that a drug test cannot rule out the possibility of doping. Is this
% s5 k' ?$ U/ fkind of agnosticism what Nature really wants to teach its readers? By that
) N8 X3 k8 \# e- g& H* g& Mstandard, I estimate that at least half of the peer-reviewed scientific
) H( ^- ]1 a( @# P% e- Opapers in Nature should be retracted. How can one convince the editors and
0 z4 a3 Z; W+ ]$ B4 U: X' ireviewers that their proposed theory works for every possible case? One
8 _$ A+ E$ e1 J; e; Ecannot. One chooses to apply the theory to typical examples and to
. D. d# ]4 D* `6 S0 [demonstrate that in (hopefully) all scenarios considered, the theory works
; x0 ^) s+ G/ u! O& i/ Hto a degree, and that that should warrant publication until a counterexample1 ]' `1 e; x6 p' ]. z: m
is found. I could imagine that Callaway has a sceptical mind, which is
4 C+ f; O7 b+ c% W; W4 Scrucial to scientific thinking, but that would be put to better use if he
# u% c3 R; g% D& t( W! W2 vwrote a peer-reviewed paper that discussed the odds of Ye doping on a highly* s ?! Q% L& R3 Q
advanced, non-detectable drug that the Chinese have come up with in the
! w" k5 E" D. m9 J9 O7 r# s7 |past 4 years (they obviously did not have it in Beijing, otherwise why not- q- ?$ U' S8 }7 a* o* P) Q
use it and woo the audience at home?), based on data and rational derivation) K. ]3 ?3 I4 H x2 C
. This article, however, can be interpreted as saying that all athletes are0 e2 [ K# ]- g. }3 S" \* o
doping and the authorities are just not good enough to catch them. That may
* r' y" z$ b }0 z. C$ u! X( ]be true, logically, but definitely will not make the case if there is ever a
* C, U) Y5 s. `4 bhearing by the governing body for water sports, FINA, to determine if Ye
# R' h5 ~# h9 L) q! L5 ~has doped. To ask whether it is possible to obtain a false negative in a0 g M1 e, x% p( J1 R" O9 c6 f
drug test looks like a rigged question to me. Of course it is possible:
7 y6 j* t5 g" c6 Q8 p- \7 x) yother than the athlete taking a drug that the test is not designed to detect" Q3 ^5 y" U% e, ~/ p' M; K
, anyone who has taken quantum 101 will tell you that everything is/ L5 ]) I. L m
probabilistic in nature, and so there is a probability that the drug in an& y" A6 P. b4 q8 g
athlete’s system could tunnel out right at the moment of the test. A slight. l( Q$ `" u4 a
chance it may be, but should we disregard all test results because of it?8 D% o5 K8 D+ A1 S. e& L A- {
Let’s be practical and reasonable, and accept that the World Anti-Doping
$ R' A3 A9 v! r/ Q% gagency (WADA) is competent at its job. Ye’s urine sample will be stored for0 }7 B0 {. s8 W# u- E( V. [7 J
eight years after the contest for future testing as technology advances.* n9 I; H8 M( M1 o% t) {
Innocent until proven guilty, shouldn’t it be?2 h( k1 c9 b9 \! F7 F# B
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Sixth, and the last point I would like to make, is that the out-of-$ P! `# Q0 P1 w: ~- @; ~
competition drug test is already in effect, which Callaway failed to mention
0 o! D" }' J4 y8 F* h1 h. As noted in the president of WADA’s press release, drug testing for
8 A+ ]6 T2 W; V) yOlympians began at least six months before the opening of the London$ h, L, N3 W4 \9 p3 _& X
Olympics. Furthermore, 107 athletes have been banned from this Olympics for
: K1 v( k1 V! \$ ddoping. That may be the reason that “everyone will pass at the Olympic
% ]* ]8 M! R- V) L) C* agames. Hardly anyone fails in competition testing” — those who did dope
2 _" b3 g( D) l6 h: Qhave already been caught and sanctioned. Callaway is free to suggest that a
0 S0 I$ G# t$ }: b- @. Yplayer could have doped beforehand and fooled the test at the game, but this2 \; n" U6 K; J& y- C
possibility is certainly ruled out for Ye.1 \& X: q& P4 F0 C; W
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Over all, even though Callaway did not falsify any data, he did (0 a" I4 u, N u! o
intentionally or not) cherry-pick data that, in my view, are far too
1 H# j' Y* C0 b$ T, D" G% Wsuggestive to be fair and unbiased. If you want to cover a story of a
. w/ s, X! x5 Esuspected doping from a scientific point of view, be impartial and provide
( _: u, {, ~$ b/ R" [* T4 K, qall the facts for the reader to judge. You are entitled to your
8 |* {( D1 `% ninterpretation of the facts, and the expression thereof in your piece,
( f& G$ S( \! ]; {5 X) Q& oexplicitly or otherwise, but showing only evidence that favours your
" J6 c' ~4 q! o0 U* x& U# r" Margument is hardly good science or journalism. Such an article in a journal3 e8 l8 f- d" N' g
such as Nature is not an appropriate example of how scientific research or
5 P' {7 v' c- \& Ureporting should be done. |
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