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REIN August news letter

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发表于 2006-8-25 08:35 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
NEW HOUSING PRICE INDEX...: u6 l4 K6 ]5 j; Y6 ~

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6 B! F- \. V4 T) O# \6 o8 sThe New Housing Price Index, has just been released and it provides some very
. B' t. n) i$ i% }! }interesting insights, not only into where the market has moved, but where it
% ^+ N3 F9 V- {1 y5 L; ]; Mwill be going.
, T" I# r( D9 M
. K( K6 w0 h, U" j( cIt proved, once again, the value of looking at fundamentals behind a market.' L% K7 ^4 ^# |+ J
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The New Housing Price Index is compiled by Statistics Canada and is used by
- M  V& g" y3 J. w' A5 C9 q, fsophisticated investors to see how much the market has moved, as well as an
7 h4 g+ T9 D3 V" J  j, Cindicator of where re-sale home prices will be moving in the coming six months.
* N$ g/ L. _# v( N( c- v5 LWe look at the ripple effect that new housing prices have on re-sale property6 `& f( n7 P# f7 Y
values and can extrapolate what direction re-sale prices will be moving and by, c" x$ z6 h1 n% C
how much.9 r8 c* ^6 b: h/ k6 s! ]" k
+ g. E1 f1 \+ v; l( n1 m
For instance, for the last three years, we have told investors to avoid Windsor,
% u3 ]1 o* M4 e$ sOntario as an investment area because the underlying fundamentals are not very) D# _9 H0 O; ]  S+ c
strong.  This has been proven once again with the release of the latest
, S6 d+ J4 M" k/ Xfindings.  New Housing Prices have actually decreased by .5% during June 2005 -
( B' J* Y" M5 y: _7 `0 |# GJune 2006 proving that fundamental investing works in helping you pick the best. U2 h# k# Z# b. F( V6 Y! b
markets and avoid the flat ones.   This .5% decrease should have little impact
5 R7 }" n6 q+ R+ g& u- pon average re-sale values in the Windsor region.
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To contrast this, the fundamentals we discuss are so strong in Calgary that the  r3 d7 m1 r" @! S7 D1 u
market continues to be super heated.  With close to 3,000 net new people into
) |, L5 C! p) Qthe city every month, the property market just can't keep up.  That is why we
3 P8 R/ h$ L$ L0 P% }) b0 Hsaw the New Housing Price Index increase by 49.2% (June 2005 to June 2006). " O8 L% w) \& Y4 P
This is great news for the future of re-sale values in the city as these/ H0 z2 z- c$ L
increases will continue to ripple out into the market for at least the next six, c- B% A3 \4 o  ]# x! t' G
months.  
) F4 s- ?+ O" e' i3 Q. B# \
# b8 h) G+ x- {) ?) c4 t8 g1 [Comparing these two regions is a great illustration of the value of not getting
1 Q- T! P' |- H) f( X2 Q% _caught in the 'emotional guessing game' by just focusing on the underlying
, N4 ]! n! u- D1 x% f+ \2 B, Bfundamentals.   It is sad to see those people who said in the last 2 years that! _' L1 U7 A) {4 \
the Alberta real estate market was over and they were going to sit back and wait
) I; C3 M& Q) ~until it drops.  Quite obviously, they have missed out on AMAZING gains, all
8 M; r) ?! L, r, c( H. l5 S2 W! ~: F3 _because they didn't follow fundamentals, they just led with their emotions.8 W$ n: y  {. h8 ~+ x% X+ o
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By the way, Edmonton's New Housing Price Index is up an amazing 28% so far (June
5 W' E( y- n  I8 R; b2 ^9 z, e. q2005 to June 2006), also great news.* {+ f. G/ R$ I. a5 H$ J  r
1 ~9 L, W9 X/ M" ]
By comparison across the country, these are the numbers for June 2005 - June
, w/ ]4 w0 n- ~0 q1 ^  D$ i3 }2006 New Housing Price Index for:
& S* n% q4 z, n  f
2 l8 J+ C( F, DVancouver . . . . . . . .   +5.2%' B$ B4 [3 C3 m( v) z/ `0 q4 P) S7 X
Saskatoon . . . . . . . .  +8.5%
; q$ x- {% S& W( G+ z+ B" vLondon . . . . . . . . . . .  +3.0%
2 o" Y8 {% o$ l6 n4 x' X0 @8 `Hamilton . . . . . . . . . .  +4.9%
, D. s: J' W) h9 {St. Catharines - Niagara . . . . +4.9%
( ~2 t, q& Q/ V/ NToronto and Oshawa . . . . . . . +3.2
0 ?* X0 Q# l, s' u7 M4 Z# KOttawa - Gatineau . . . . . . . . .  +3.1%: R: P* _$ |$ ^( \9 l

6 r6 y( G) e! L& ?8 P5 yFundamental investing ALWAYS makes you look like a genius - emotional investing: n& d, W7 j9 b
gives you quick highs, but also quick lows.  Well done on your focus!
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As the fundamentals have been showing all along, the Alberta market continues to
9 a' k8 X" Z7 y3 [: ?; |be strong, as in-migration and job creation continues to attract people from not
1 Q. j$ Z9 ?4 N# A. C, V# honly across Canada, but from around the world.  Our average wages are
8 J2 u1 V( _5 }; B' Zincreasing, our population is increasing, our unemployment rate continues to2 H$ k( J, I, I: h5 j+ ~
drop and our GDP growth is slated to once again lead the country.4 ?  l, {. s% V# }: [

# J. W9 m, L$ a/ NHere are some very interesting facts that are helping to support the strong& k8 W$ ~6 m7 c* h& R5 T! @6 U
fundamentals:
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! R% I; @6 h" p; S  C9 `5 y: L7 [1. The Conference Board of Canada is forecasting strong economic growth in1 o, P! D) o6 X" ]- G
Canada, with Alberta once again leading the way.  In fact, the projected growth
+ K0 M8 C/ W% k% h; h5 Wfor Alberta's economy is a staggering 6.6%.  (BC + 3.6%, Ontario + 2.5%), and
; G0 ^- f% B/ c1 q8 othis is slated to occur even with the labour shortages we are witnessing.- |: F1 p4 d! Y
; F4 i# r4 F( c( r8 O+ d" J5 y1 s
2.  People are discovering Canada as an investment center from all over the9 P4 a. O# R6 z
world.  Recently, there have been investors coming here from Asia, Australia,3 u: m" u0 L- {9 s5 ~+ u" E
the US, UK and Europe.  In fact, if you review the world's press you will see; w# M% G2 D% G# x* h
that Canada (with a focus on Alberta) is being discussed more frequently.
; I1 ~! t% o2 T( t
4 r4 ^; j) r  n3.  Don Campbell has just returned from presenting our Canadian investment
/ i1 x# T8 S; L( b! p3 Katmosphere (including Why Alberta - Why Now") to a group of major investors in
# F% Y& Q7 U3 cDublin, Ireland, and the response was overwhelmingly positive.  In fact, after$ {7 l9 @9 a& \: {
Don presented the economic facts, many of these investors (who could invest
! v) M3 L# N9 F6 D# @anywhere in the world) have already booked their flights to here.  Once again
) T& N/ X0 c; {  Iproving that when the true numbers of our economy are presented (along with the
/ X" p; D) ?) r: z( Z& jpolitical stability of our country), there is no place in the world that can/ K6 W4 z% n& D7 `% C+ {; G5 j+ K# c
beat it for long term investment.
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4.  Job creation continues to be strong (with a small lull in June); definitely3 Q5 q) I; a0 s
a sign of strong long-term fundamentals.  RBC has also been following the job
% h. S5 s! J, h0 b2 k2 J' Wcreation situation and here is what they are saying: (www.rbc.com/economics)( C) @" J0 Q, w9 Z
"After generating a substantial 96,700 jobs in May, the largest such gain since
# [  [! j  @- C) t  WJanuary 2002, the economy lost a modest 4,600 jobs in June... % A( k# d: f8 r) `& ?% b7 C

9 j0 M5 E+ @! Y+ \4 XStrength in the Canadian economy contributed to a gain of 215,600 jobs in the
7 C5 F: a2 Z3 U, C' }0 W' V- Sfirst half of 2006, a feat not matched since the second half of 2002.  With the
) u$ y& }$ B. t! ^5 u' ~6 @economy widely expected to grow at a more moderate pace in the second half of' _# N; a5 Z5 Y5 r: w, j5 ?# c& r
the year on the back of slowing trade activity, this impressive showing may not6 y1 x+ ]; s& |( }5 _  I
repeat itself.  We expect that employment grew in July at a pace consistent with
8 \2 n8 l# R& N) y* G' K* zits recent trend of 24,000 jobs a month. Assuming that the labour force grew at
) }* g! z9 e( V2 g% eits trend rate, a gain of 24,000 jobs will lead to a national unemployment rate5 k' v3 h5 c9 ]3 g3 j% ]
of 6.1%."  Overall very good news.  Now the key is to ensure that the region in
* I) x/ V$ s- I3 @5 A  {which you are investing is continuing to generate jobs and increasing incomes.
+ J7 K2 ?' l1 m, N  m
  A, y. H+ r% c& c7 B9 a5 `1 G: u: L$ t+ X0 D( V
In other words, it is a great time to be taking advantage of this strong* J9 F& \$ v: W* R% w
economy, avoiding 'excuses' and to especially not listen to the uninformed
: g# E$ O4 ^3 g. e/ p'dream stealers.'  As long as you stick with your game plan, you continue to do4 K( }* L7 Q' k, q% T
your due diligence, and you remove emotions from the equation, you will see the! S# f8 d2 C8 I: r/ V% D" |
opportunities that are right in front of you, right here in Alberta.  Let the0 ?1 ^- R; K* Z  R/ x. @
'dream stealers' call you 'lucky' 5 years from now as your net worth has soared) [; L6 f% f8 T0 @$ H2 g
and your financial freedom has surpassed even your wildest expectations.
9 }0 T/ O* W* ]7 l) T" S+ s; W8 ^4 d$ J1 q: M

' ~, V6 W, |( k, qCapital Gains Comparison.: D- M6 T7 y. S/ }

2 b+ g) h. s) G4 gKPMG has recently released a comparison of the true Top Federal and Provincial
( O! F9 t- L; l; hMarginal Capital Gains Tax Rates per province.  It is very interesting to see' [3 w6 I' _6 G
how these will affect your exit strategy.  Here are the numbers:' K. A3 H8 s% p# T# ?- e

& |+ P% {1 e& C- KBC . . . . . . . .  21.9%
  P9 O# {  h$ ^+ ]+ Y" U; BAB . . . . . . . .  19.5%
7 |4 w) B- \2 e1 t, _2 M, wSK . . . . . . . .  22.0%
- @: M: k8 G  m! M; [4 T7 y% hMB . . . . . . . .  23.2%' x. l8 D5 X# f  L* y6 h4 [9 i9 y4 O
ON . . . . . . . .  23.2%  S  |' R; @8 A9 r- D( o' q
QC . . . . . . . .  24.1%
/ ~, x& Y1 A* H' p0 }; w* vNB . . . . . . . .  23.4%3 V' p1 @* z* |$ W3 Q" {$ M/ E
NS . . . . . . . .  24.1%
, f9 h# v; O9 x( \  N& ?5 dPE . . . . . . . .  23.7%* ]) Z9 r. R( D$ m9 [' o- \# z
NF . . . . . . . .  24.3%
$ [6 Q% ?' v8 U+ h4 o
+ k0 t+ V6 F0 n# e2 J% BLower capital gains tax increases investment and stimulates the long term# U! m* l$ \3 }; C& I
economy of the province.  It also allows real estate investors to keep more of
) C8 Q5 s' i7 v: H, s  M1 ^their profits at exit time.  Always a good number to pay attention to.
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* * * * * *
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Overall, by staying focused for the next short period of time, you have the1 j/ i/ h+ O' _* K! L
opportunity to create financial freedom of which others can only dream.  Of4 }' i% n& X3 ], M8 O
course, the key word is focus.  And with an August line-up of 'Members Only'
- Z; `- @& G. \% v. e5 Y3 Gevents like this, you can't help to become a real estate investment champion  ?8 I" U8 J, b
when you take action as a full REIN Member.# ?; S# _3 K$ H1 g3 Z

3 N! C0 j7 G/ ^+ tFocus on the fundamentals, keep emotions out of your decisions, and enjoy the$ a  b+ {% N  S$ n
results in just a few short years.
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发表于 2006-8-25 09:26 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 屯民 于 2006-8-25 08:35 发表& f6 Q3 Z) y$ u: Y. ]
NEW HOUSING PRICE INDEX.... U8 x) t$ \; v; H( `4 A

# c2 X+ O& x1 q" J; O5 f/ d! p) ^4 @! x! P( l% A2 R
The New Housing Price Index, has just been released and it provides some very  A- M+ g$ O  Z" E, d$ }
interesting insights, not only into where the market has moved, but where it- a! ?) v6 n; E* d/ `
will be  ...
; D, ?- d3 h0 D% e" w) |
0 B( O' A* @0 d0 S: N" s& `
谢谢分享,你买了他们的membership吗?可以给我多发点文章吗?如果值得我也想加入。
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 楼主| 发表于 2006-8-25 10:45 | 显示全部楼层
Yes, I am member.  Below is an old one but I think it is very good.
$ `$ a" n3 o" W7 k; \. Q* B, a; b; S' h
http://www.albertarein.com/insid ... le&articleid=49
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You can also go to their web site to get more info. Here is the link.
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http://www.albertarein.com/index.asp
鲜花(86) 鸡蛋(3)
发表于 2006-8-25 11:17 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
嘿,炒访团来了哈!
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 楼主| 发表于 2006-8-25 11:27 | 显示全部楼层
You are one of the biggest 炒家 I knew.
鲜花(437) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2006-8-25 12:00 | 显示全部楼层
很象国内的股评.
鲜花(150) 鸡蛋(3)
发表于 2006-8-25 18:21 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
看吧,每个月才3000人,一年人口才增加4万人,仅仅占全市总人口的4%,房子半年涨了50%,这就是我说的房价水分(虚涨)。所以,降价是谁也挡不住的。" x* {4 W# j4 Y1 }2 t, ~6 S
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***醉酒认为,合理房价上涨=4%/年(人口)+8%/年(自然增长)+10%(经济前景)=22%/年就够多了。所以炒作因素引起增长 = 45%-22% = 23%,所以,降价空间很大,等等吧****
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原帖由 屯民 于 2006-8-25 08:35 发表
; x% h% I7 h2 C. L/ t- P9 ?NEW HOUSING PRICE INDEX...' c3 R2 k& O# q  _
/ X6 [- u  f2 `
! C' W' B5 Y5 |' u' f, [  [
With close to 3,000 net new people into) ~$ i# S% w. j
the city every month, the property market just can't keep up.  That is why we
. S9 z5 _7 L" C" A0 zsaw the New Housing Price Index ...

* K1 A! e* H: i% W" ^8 O4 {[ 本帖最后由 醉酒当歌 于 2006-8-25 18:44 编辑 ]
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