隔夜cut 25bps...9 ^# b) W! `0 @5 A4 C
看来保房市重中之重,跟天朝一个德行& _4 j' t# W, H7 r; U
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Agree with you on the point. The cut is Based on the idea that oil price will be up within 6 months as in 2009. They are gambling now, but have a winning chance by more than 50 %.
Houses will be stable so far under the policy of BOC, but your daily life cost will be increasing due to the purchasing goods from US. A new balance will be set for a while at the cost of increasing daily life expense. The result will depend on the rise of crude oil in an acceptable period, but it is worth taking a step.
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我觉得这个回答很有见地, 2 ~; z2 U5 H7 h1 c, v0 D, [. o Z- _2 d
其实绝大多数人来说房价高低没有什么意义除非你在这个时间移民.' {- B9 e8 W+ w1 N' M
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如果不移民,谁会卖了房子抱着现金住马路呢? 当然流浪汉类型性格的人除外. 5 F Q- L' E. H$ @/ `; P! C7 J: U# m2 s. ?2 x
但是如果企业撑不住了,设备场地都贱卖了, 过几年如果想恢复经济就困难了.' a8 C- Z7 ]- i' N/ p' M% l7 }( i0 K
# `$ K2 ]3 ^5 A* r+ C s- q因为原来的工厂再破能运转, 当破烂卖了废铁,那就真有的企业根本无法重新组织起来了, 那更惨. a" h* }. L* \ a+ d
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这个损害大家谁也躲不开.
加币持续贬值,近10%,本币贬值,代表加币计入的财富全面贬值,如果大宗商品如能源和有色金属价格坚挺,那么本币贬值还可刺激出口,可是情况正好相反,这些东西都是过剩状态,价格持续走低,这是典型的雪上加霜。 / n. \# X( g) T4 s y% K7 }+ c) b, z
本来正确的应对方式是加息,但是这样做显然重挫房地产,如果引发家庭高负债率的大震动必然引发信用危机,决策层不敢这么做,用了一个拖字诀,降息,稳住房地产,寄希望国际油价企稳,美国经济走高带小弟走出泥潭,想法很美丽,但是万一现实很残酷呢? " B( M7 v- ~ S: }$ h2 ]) U q% R# c
copied from BCbaby yesterday.
It seems no prime rate lowered this time from Oliver's speech today? If yes, BOC is worrying about the debts in the residential mortgage? but has to give soem blood to the industry?