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9 w& L- P/ R8 Y6 u2 S+ ~ Thu January 11, 2007 www.edmontonsun.com
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8 I9 j2 s v# E5 ]+ | In Tomorrow's PaperGet the latest Oilers news every day in Sports. Or check our Oilers homepage here.
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Thu, January 11, 20072 n9 ~5 v( _, k" g; _% h
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Price is still rightEdmonton Real Estate Board president expects a 15% climb in 2007
) i0 o7 L- W8 z; B. m" U: RBy NEIL WAUGH, EDMONTON SUN' j2 A3 p! d" g7 q$ G
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They're changing the guard down at the Edmonton real estate palace. 0 t; ?9 {- E. H! y
- e- V2 c+ V7 S0 E( H2 L D& V2 ZMadeline Sarafinchan is out. Carolyn Pratt is taking over the Edmonton Real Estate Board president's gavel - the kind of blunt instrument that some realtors, I suspect, would like to use on ComFree Edmonton upstart Travis Holowach. More on that later. 0 h% Q8 R5 k. {3 i& j2 E# e5 E
- D6 X# M3 n& S# aBut first, the EREB president's bold predictions and fearless forecasts. * V* e( U- s% O3 F* h# q
/ t* }. l( H VDon't expect a repeat of last year's housing boom where condo and single family dwelling prices spiked an incredible 52%. Pratt is now calling for a more modest increase of 15%. - i8 g/ [' W" J- {
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'CONTINUED DEMAND'
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k# \& n/ g/ J. ~% M( q( B"We feel the increase will come because there will be continued demand, consumer confidence, a very robust economy and low interest rates," Pratt whooped at the EREB's New Year's kick-off conference at the Westin. "All the factors are there for another terrific year."
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She predicted that the total number of residential sales isn't expected to increase in 2007 - despite thousands of pot-of-gold seekers still flocking to the capital region from across the country as Ontario continues to sputter.
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- W$ t; R3 a- \( W q+ @"There just won't be enough houses to sell," she sighed. 5 l; C, e! b G; H
" x9 q! [; E' G* h. p4 ]- X2 s9 r" ~Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation senior analyst Richard Goatcher was also talking a good-news-bad-news scenario at the board meeting. $ y( t# d- u' F- V' v( }/ W5 ?
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"The big issue is, are we going to see continued in-migration into the city with the volumes we had last year?" Goatcher said. His expectation is "somewhat less." ! S2 ?; v2 z! A( E0 {/ ]
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Still, total new-house starts will be "fairly similar" to last year's pace. 2006 turned out to be a record year. So was 2005. But Goatcher is predicting a 5% decrease in house starts.
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"A lot of it is due to capacity issues," he said. Developers are running out of serviced lots in some areas. Some homebuilders "got a little overstretched" during last year's house-building frenzy. # M. }0 E+ u0 E7 Q; Z, d! L
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"There are too many shortages in the system," he shrugged. * h# l* H X& m6 |' D# V
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"But it's still going to be very, very strong," he quickly added, with the average new-home selling price ramping up by 20%. 6 n" R, Z; i3 T! o! t9 s; j0 m; \- l
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NO PRICE BOOM REPEAT ' \0 g! A' @# B6 }$ Z( \1 R1 k
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He also doesn't see a repeat of the 2006 price boom in the resale market, which he described as "unsustainable." 3 y) `. g+ u6 g7 f H; B7 _+ e
+ ]% c" b- R U& ?Expect a more gentle 10% increase - mainly because many potential buyers are now being priced out of the market - even with zero down payment and 40-year mortgages.
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Over at ComFree Edmonton, president Travis Holowach was also celebrating what he described as a "steaming red hot" real estate market, and another "record-setting" year for his commission-free real estate service. 2 L; ]: T y1 e6 r8 e U
% F2 s9 U6 s7 R" z: i: [! N0 }His 2006 wind-up report shows 4,375 total sales and 5,721 new listings, up 74% from 2005 - clearly sucking up a lot of the inventory that would otherwise have gone to an EREB realtor.
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+ A, l! n$ P" F7 y+ u" Q"Our growing presence in the marketplace is having a strong impact on the competition," Holowach winked.
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1 l4 U. r1 _2 u! I4 L: p" Q, _So strong that the Alberta Real Estate Association launched a complaint with Alberta Government Services claiming ComFree was bending the truth about its market share. . l. D# J9 {5 Z0 p. i( Z
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Yesterday ComFree was still claiming 30% share of the residential market. And "commissions saved" of $82 million from his sell-it-yourself operation. Which, of course, is what the battle is really all about. ! {( n5 f% y% _2 ?' z# `, q; n
* Z+ w7 O N `' l2 P+ k# s"We do 95% of the sales in the real estate market," Pratt countered. * k. q% C7 W% k' T( o/ Q
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Let the good times roll.
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+ w$ o H& l1 c& C# q: E9 ?Previous story: Bottom Line
( d- V3 I S, ^# f; }Next story: Building permits hit record# V' z4 w! z$ d4 w
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