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6 f% Q/ W/ N o5 r# Y* C1 F. YThu, January 11, 2007
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Price is still rightEdmonton Real Estate Board president expects a 15% climb in 2007
& f% ^# @" B: ~. DBy NEIL WAUGH, EDMONTON SUN- w! J1 G: f$ H; i) f( B
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They're changing the guard down at the Edmonton real estate palace. 4 m3 S. S$ a$ y$ o* C' Y" d
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Madeline Sarafinchan is out. Carolyn Pratt is taking over the Edmonton Real Estate Board president's gavel - the kind of blunt instrument that some realtors, I suspect, would like to use on ComFree Edmonton upstart Travis Holowach. More on that later. + h0 o6 [) B6 c
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But first, the EREB president's bold predictions and fearless forecasts. ' R3 j5 a4 z B- Q, X& w9 X* q h* t
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Don't expect a repeat of last year's housing boom where condo and single family dwelling prices spiked an incredible 52%. Pratt is now calling for a more modest increase of 15%. ' f, g; l) r& |% V
4 r R2 X" r3 R4 J'CONTINUED DEMAND'
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8 L/ y9 f" ?: u% Y6 L, w# Z"We feel the increase will come because there will be continued demand, consumer confidence, a very robust economy and low interest rates," Pratt whooped at the EREB's New Year's kick-off conference at the Westin. "All the factors are there for another terrific year."
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, v/ D/ e* w5 x2 kShe predicted that the total number of residential sales isn't expected to increase in 2007 - despite thousands of pot-of-gold seekers still flocking to the capital region from across the country as Ontario continues to sputter. 4 D2 v2 v# B4 V- ?+ t( ~
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"There just won't be enough houses to sell," she sighed. 9 f7 j( ^7 u( p {' F$ D
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Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation senior analyst Richard Goatcher was also talking a good-news-bad-news scenario at the board meeting. ( a2 b& P5 F8 T; o
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"The big issue is, are we going to see continued in-migration into the city with the volumes we had last year?" Goatcher said. His expectation is "somewhat less."
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$ U8 n/ q1 ?0 d. XStill, total new-house starts will be "fairly similar" to last year's pace. 2006 turned out to be a record year. So was 2005. But Goatcher is predicting a 5% decrease in house starts. 8 a) k6 z; T i# r" S' K4 h. `
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"A lot of it is due to capacity issues," he said. Developers are running out of serviced lots in some areas. Some homebuilders "got a little overstretched" during last year's house-building frenzy. + B( M- ?8 q: F" A. I1 s6 I" e) w
, e3 C- j; I2 j" C"There are too many shortages in the system," he shrugged.
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"But it's still going to be very, very strong," he quickly added, with the average new-home selling price ramping up by 20%. 5 z; T' S# k& b) w) \% u
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NO PRICE BOOM REPEAT 9 c' K5 [; w$ s8 C4 W
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He also doesn't see a repeat of the 2006 price boom in the resale market, which he described as "unsustainable." 0 ?4 c; X2 s& m1 {8 x+ @9 J
1 a5 J0 D6 [& UExpect a more gentle 10% increase - mainly because many potential buyers are now being priced out of the market - even with zero down payment and 40-year mortgages.
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Over at ComFree Edmonton, president Travis Holowach was also celebrating what he described as a "steaming red hot" real estate market, and another "record-setting" year for his commission-free real estate service.
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8 R. e" r: Q0 Z' k, \5 zHis 2006 wind-up report shows 4,375 total sales and 5,721 new listings, up 74% from 2005 - clearly sucking up a lot of the inventory that would otherwise have gone to an EREB realtor. 8 A3 N: T! |4 d' ?4 z J
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"Our growing presence in the marketplace is having a strong impact on the competition," Holowach winked.
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So strong that the Alberta Real Estate Association launched a complaint with Alberta Government Services claiming ComFree was bending the truth about its market share.
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+ d9 j- G2 @! O4 _Yesterday ComFree was still claiming 30% share of the residential market. And "commissions saved" of $82 million from his sell-it-yourself operation. Which, of course, is what the battle is really all about.
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. X- S4 ?, Z9 n1 o) w0 ]0 Z3 x"We do 95% of the sales in the real estate market," Pratt countered. " ^9 x8 p# V" Z4 ?3 A
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Let the good times roll. - ]- W% X) w Z! B4 r# E
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Previous story: Bottom Line
, c0 q6 K' N" NNext story: Building permits hit record
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发表于 2007-1-14 18:29
