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Thu, January 11, 2007) h' u* a( ?6 G7 K8 K; ^
y2 y4 |" V; z5 i; cPrice is still rightEdmonton Real Estate Board president expects a 15% climb in 2007- F" p; ?2 s. l3 h3 i
By NEIL WAUGH, EDMONTON SUN8 x. m$ p( S& }& f
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They're changing the guard down at the Edmonton real estate palace.
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Madeline Sarafinchan is out. Carolyn Pratt is taking over the Edmonton Real Estate Board president's gavel - the kind of blunt instrument that some realtors, I suspect, would like to use on ComFree Edmonton upstart Travis Holowach. More on that later.
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But first, the EREB president's bold predictions and fearless forecasts.
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/ B/ v. C9 z) a1 Y& ?4 KDon't expect a repeat of last year's housing boom where condo and single family dwelling prices spiked an incredible 52%. Pratt is now calling for a more modest increase of 15%. 7 S5 P: ~9 I9 L" e) v
% r! z+ q2 C: f4 H8 }) m'CONTINUED DEMAND' / @- z# b; i3 I6 x3 V H
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"We feel the increase will come because there will be continued demand, consumer confidence, a very robust economy and low interest rates," Pratt whooped at the EREB's New Year's kick-off conference at the Westin. "All the factors are there for another terrific year."
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She predicted that the total number of residential sales isn't expected to increase in 2007 - despite thousands of pot-of-gold seekers still flocking to the capital region from across the country as Ontario continues to sputter.
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"There just won't be enough houses to sell," she sighed.
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Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation senior analyst Richard Goatcher was also talking a good-news-bad-news scenario at the board meeting.
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"The big issue is, are we going to see continued in-migration into the city with the volumes we had last year?" Goatcher said. His expectation is "somewhat less."
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Still, total new-house starts will be "fairly similar" to last year's pace. 2006 turned out to be a record year. So was 2005. But Goatcher is predicting a 5% decrease in house starts.
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) E- ]! I' s q0 {; {8 S& Y' V: D"A lot of it is due to capacity issues," he said. Developers are running out of serviced lots in some areas. Some homebuilders "got a little overstretched" during last year's house-building frenzy.
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( c0 l& l( ^& j0 P1 u- E' G"There are too many shortages in the system," he shrugged.
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"But it's still going to be very, very strong," he quickly added, with the average new-home selling price ramping up by 20%. / s3 ?0 T4 E/ Q$ m
1 Y/ w* a# W% j. I2 ~1 ]NO PRICE BOOM REPEAT
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1 y& z T) T8 v& a) OHe also doesn't see a repeat of the 2006 price boom in the resale market, which he described as "unsustainable."
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Expect a more gentle 10% increase - mainly because many potential buyers are now being priced out of the market - even with zero down payment and 40-year mortgages. ( g6 I0 l; R* Q: J# I3 a
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Over at ComFree Edmonton, president Travis Holowach was also celebrating what he described as a "steaming red hot" real estate market, and another "record-setting" year for his commission-free real estate service. 1 x+ |1 G! ]$ A
2 m; K4 ^6 i! S3 z: C/ q: NHis 2006 wind-up report shows 4,375 total sales and 5,721 new listings, up 74% from 2005 - clearly sucking up a lot of the inventory that would otherwise have gone to an EREB realtor.
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+ P* j- a" `2 Z2 ?7 q: ?( v"Our growing presence in the marketplace is having a strong impact on the competition," Holowach winked.
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So strong that the Alberta Real Estate Association launched a complaint with Alberta Government Services claiming ComFree was bending the truth about its market share.
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Yesterday ComFree was still claiming 30% share of the residential market. And "commissions saved" of $82 million from his sell-it-yourself operation. Which, of course, is what the battle is really all about. % t/ j+ e7 Y! p2 W
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"We do 95% of the sales in the real estate market," Pratt countered.
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' B' w( \2 u2 r" BLet the good times roll.
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9 K6 U6 |# S j/ ?* b0 A& M# T ~Previous story: Bottom Line
5 h, k/ u/ b- o! C t- CNext story: Building permits hit record' b# F0 N! s, A1 `% ]$ E6 D
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