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* z6 k! G8 c1 H* V Thu January 11, 2007 www.edmontonsun.com
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9 e% x3 ?" R6 {8 U: h( e; b! g" D In Tomorrow's PaperGet the latest Oilers news every day in Sports. Or check our Oilers homepage here.
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Thu, January 11, 20075 U! O+ \7 l/ V/ R' ?, T8 Q
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Price is still rightEdmonton Real Estate Board president expects a 15% climb in 2007
2 o9 v I* e# p) [# t4 R) UBy NEIL WAUGH, EDMONTON SUN$ f) W! E: K3 l4 ?3 Y" t
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They're changing the guard down at the Edmonton real estate palace.
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. S+ Q) p8 g: E8 [/ cMadeline Sarafinchan is out. Carolyn Pratt is taking over the Edmonton Real Estate Board president's gavel - the kind of blunt instrument that some realtors, I suspect, would like to use on ComFree Edmonton upstart Travis Holowach. More on that later. V8 K2 U9 O5 [- n0 X6 Q
3 g) g- m7 S) XBut first, the EREB president's bold predictions and fearless forecasts. . W" E5 i+ l& e# U7 D4 `% y
/ t, \# a0 @5 `6 U; NDon't expect a repeat of last year's housing boom where condo and single family dwelling prices spiked an incredible 52%. Pratt is now calling for a more modest increase of 15%.
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'CONTINUED DEMAND'
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: K# P& l" W8 ?4 _, A"We feel the increase will come because there will be continued demand, consumer confidence, a very robust economy and low interest rates," Pratt whooped at the EREB's New Year's kick-off conference at the Westin. "All the factors are there for another terrific year." & v S& k/ Q h; F+ V2 c% @0 t8 }
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She predicted that the total number of residential sales isn't expected to increase in 2007 - despite thousands of pot-of-gold seekers still flocking to the capital region from across the country as Ontario continues to sputter. ! P. w- I9 y! M- q6 O
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"There just won't be enough houses to sell," she sighed.
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Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation senior analyst Richard Goatcher was also talking a good-news-bad-news scenario at the board meeting. $ @1 U5 |7 l! ~: o
$ v- C8 r3 T* J) @"The big issue is, are we going to see continued in-migration into the city with the volumes we had last year?" Goatcher said. His expectation is "somewhat less." - Q, [3 @9 P% a1 \3 Y% j
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Still, total new-house starts will be "fairly similar" to last year's pace. 2006 turned out to be a record year. So was 2005. But Goatcher is predicting a 5% decrease in house starts.
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; y+ E! W1 J1 f: l }; j) A"A lot of it is due to capacity issues," he said. Developers are running out of serviced lots in some areas. Some homebuilders "got a little overstretched" during last year's house-building frenzy.
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. x& p1 P1 ?) c, X0 @( ]3 q"There are too many shortages in the system," he shrugged.
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& I2 `1 y7 G) k"But it's still going to be very, very strong," he quickly added, with the average new-home selling price ramping up by 20%. ! X9 q5 y8 E3 x
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NO PRICE BOOM REPEAT + A' x# O2 v& ^+ Y7 r: ?+ H
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He also doesn't see a repeat of the 2006 price boom in the resale market, which he described as "unsustainable." L" ]$ l8 V# c/ C0 H
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Expect a more gentle 10% increase - mainly because many potential buyers are now being priced out of the market - even with zero down payment and 40-year mortgages.
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Over at ComFree Edmonton, president Travis Holowach was also celebrating what he described as a "steaming red hot" real estate market, and another "record-setting" year for his commission-free real estate service.
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His 2006 wind-up report shows 4,375 total sales and 5,721 new listings, up 74% from 2005 - clearly sucking up a lot of the inventory that would otherwise have gone to an EREB realtor.
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' R" v6 U0 @: k Z$ D. W0 ~1 z"Our growing presence in the marketplace is having a strong impact on the competition," Holowach winked. 6 k/ u3 B1 P0 a) W1 F
; d5 t' q0 U' r" WSo strong that the Alberta Real Estate Association launched a complaint with Alberta Government Services claiming ComFree was bending the truth about its market share. 5 |# t8 P% h1 m" E1 @+ v% I& F
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Yesterday ComFree was still claiming 30% share of the residential market. And "commissions saved" of $82 million from his sell-it-yourself operation. Which, of course, is what the battle is really all about.
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"We do 95% of the sales in the real estate market," Pratt countered.
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Let the good times roll.
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/ w/ M$ k( x: VPrevious story: Bottom Line' N5 k4 c0 w; i, M1 N7 c& Z8 W
Next story: Building permits hit record
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发表于 2007-1-11 19:22
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发表于 2007-1-14 18:29
