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$ E2 e$ V, \) Q' ? \7 e4 WThu, January 11, 2007
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! Z A+ q) D L7 U" E& K* r& E PPrice is still rightEdmonton Real Estate Board president expects a 15% climb in 2007. L6 B$ K% x( q _% L
By NEIL WAUGH, EDMONTON SUN* }% z! U2 j- g g, l- r
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They're changing the guard down at the Edmonton real estate palace. + h6 L) Z. X, N- ?# ^
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Madeline Sarafinchan is out. Carolyn Pratt is taking over the Edmonton Real Estate Board president's gavel - the kind of blunt instrument that some realtors, I suspect, would like to use on ComFree Edmonton upstart Travis Holowach. More on that later.
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But first, the EREB president's bold predictions and fearless forecasts.
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8 z2 Q& U, }; PDon't expect a repeat of last year's housing boom where condo and single family dwelling prices spiked an incredible 52%. Pratt is now calling for a more modest increase of 15%. ' O+ n6 R; M, |4 z' U: l& r
G9 `1 C5 ^6 V. A7 g'CONTINUED DEMAND'
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. c( w' U. o+ K6 ~$ f' x"We feel the increase will come because there will be continued demand, consumer confidence, a very robust economy and low interest rates," Pratt whooped at the EREB's New Year's kick-off conference at the Westin. "All the factors are there for another terrific year."
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, j+ @- l- |3 Z6 G! z8 `3 d# lShe predicted that the total number of residential sales isn't expected to increase in 2007 - despite thousands of pot-of-gold seekers still flocking to the capital region from across the country as Ontario continues to sputter.
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3 Q; u) ]8 |% L/ W/ j! u9 C1 b"There just won't be enough houses to sell," she sighed.
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m* Y) } z+ N) |; u1 t$ d9 PCanada Mortgage and Housing Corporation senior analyst Richard Goatcher was also talking a good-news-bad-news scenario at the board meeting.
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"The big issue is, are we going to see continued in-migration into the city with the volumes we had last year?" Goatcher said. His expectation is "somewhat less."
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Still, total new-house starts will be "fairly similar" to last year's pace. 2006 turned out to be a record year. So was 2005. But Goatcher is predicting a 5% decrease in house starts.
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"A lot of it is due to capacity issues," he said. Developers are running out of serviced lots in some areas. Some homebuilders "got a little overstretched" during last year's house-building frenzy.
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"There are too many shortages in the system," he shrugged.
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U7 g. w0 f0 |( O9 u"But it's still going to be very, very strong," he quickly added, with the average new-home selling price ramping up by 20%. ( X; g6 P9 r A( B
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/ T! c$ l6 x: N$ m$ sHe also doesn't see a repeat of the 2006 price boom in the resale market, which he described as "unsustainable." $ ]2 W+ f; A! ~8 j4 H+ v
" t9 f" Y% G# P4 \) [Expect a more gentle 10% increase - mainly because many potential buyers are now being priced out of the market - even with zero down payment and 40-year mortgages.
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Over at ComFree Edmonton, president Travis Holowach was also celebrating what he described as a "steaming red hot" real estate market, and another "record-setting" year for his commission-free real estate service.
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: q) q7 r4 l5 w/ Q9 XHis 2006 wind-up report shows 4,375 total sales and 5,721 new listings, up 74% from 2005 - clearly sucking up a lot of the inventory that would otherwise have gone to an EREB realtor. . a/ x) C3 [0 G5 s0 k
5 z; ~5 N1 w D1 n"Our growing presence in the marketplace is having a strong impact on the competition," Holowach winked.
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9 ~' ?; o G% J' ^. H& E4 gSo strong that the Alberta Real Estate Association launched a complaint with Alberta Government Services claiming ComFree was bending the truth about its market share. ; i0 u8 I: n2 L! d1 [6 j1 v L# O
, e5 u+ y! e# J) ?' }Yesterday ComFree was still claiming 30% share of the residential market. And "commissions saved" of $82 million from his sell-it-yourself operation. Which, of course, is what the battle is really all about. . P# J' b# t6 P' n# C2 W
$ O8 Y- N. |$ u( L' O' N5 B, N"We do 95% of the sales in the real estate market," Pratt countered.
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Let the good times roll. / a7 w2 G4 W. I% `
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