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( O- l+ B; p1 R' c3 AThu, January 11, 2007
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6 d) i( U0 H- Y5 T7 SPrice is still rightEdmonton Real Estate Board president expects a 15% climb in 2007
5 z; ^% p5 c6 p- J HBy NEIL WAUGH, EDMONTON SUN
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# U1 y4 D A D% D" ?2 KThey're changing the guard down at the Edmonton real estate palace. 8 n5 G7 n0 [" E5 @: V5 G
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Madeline Sarafinchan is out. Carolyn Pratt is taking over the Edmonton Real Estate Board president's gavel - the kind of blunt instrument that some realtors, I suspect, would like to use on ComFree Edmonton upstart Travis Holowach. More on that later. $ E, }" r! k$ _9 m6 @; n
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But first, the EREB president's bold predictions and fearless forecasts. # R3 \- }2 D3 e6 P S- M
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Don't expect a repeat of last year's housing boom where condo and single family dwelling prices spiked an incredible 52%. Pratt is now calling for a more modest increase of 15%.
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5 l8 L+ ~+ A2 l"We feel the increase will come because there will be continued demand, consumer confidence, a very robust economy and low interest rates," Pratt whooped at the EREB's New Year's kick-off conference at the Westin. "All the factors are there for another terrific year."
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She predicted that the total number of residential sales isn't expected to increase in 2007 - despite thousands of pot-of-gold seekers still flocking to the capital region from across the country as Ontario continues to sputter. 5 Y: Z. D% Q1 Z9 G- X$ X) U- d& h! W3 h* c
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"There just won't be enough houses to sell," she sighed. ; E3 r/ N% g& ^- D1 C
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Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation senior analyst Richard Goatcher was also talking a good-news-bad-news scenario at the board meeting. 8 V' t3 V* E" }5 v: y% ?5 F9 ]! y
7 m# ]0 W, ^! @: p4 V1 V"The big issue is, are we going to see continued in-migration into the city with the volumes we had last year?" Goatcher said. His expectation is "somewhat less." 2 r3 j# [, b( E
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Still, total new-house starts will be "fairly similar" to last year's pace. 2006 turned out to be a record year. So was 2005. But Goatcher is predicting a 5% decrease in house starts. 1 }& Q" }6 k8 [2 q. f$ N5 Z
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"A lot of it is due to capacity issues," he said. Developers are running out of serviced lots in some areas. Some homebuilders "got a little overstretched" during last year's house-building frenzy.
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"There are too many shortages in the system," he shrugged. 5 Y F& [# T; n g3 U
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"But it's still going to be very, very strong," he quickly added, with the average new-home selling price ramping up by 20%.
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NO PRICE BOOM REPEAT 0 s$ ?- h x5 Z0 c! v' M' `
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He also doesn't see a repeat of the 2006 price boom in the resale market, which he described as "unsustainable." ; X7 T) V: U& }% o3 j8 v! x
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Expect a more gentle 10% increase - mainly because many potential buyers are now being priced out of the market - even with zero down payment and 40-year mortgages.
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Over at ComFree Edmonton, president Travis Holowach was also celebrating what he described as a "steaming red hot" real estate market, and another "record-setting" year for his commission-free real estate service. 2 N1 {! W# [; x( f/ e% k
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His 2006 wind-up report shows 4,375 total sales and 5,721 new listings, up 74% from 2005 - clearly sucking up a lot of the inventory that would otherwise have gone to an EREB realtor.
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"Our growing presence in the marketplace is having a strong impact on the competition," Holowach winked.
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So strong that the Alberta Real Estate Association launched a complaint with Alberta Government Services claiming ComFree was bending the truth about its market share.
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0 l% A9 C6 \* _+ O! I. dYesterday ComFree was still claiming 30% share of the residential market. And "commissions saved" of $82 million from his sell-it-yourself operation. Which, of course, is what the battle is really all about.
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6 l: p& I) n- V; f"We do 95% of the sales in the real estate market," Pratt countered.
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c$ g8 C" W" C/ X8 ]2 j$ u QLet the good times roll.
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Previous story: Bottom Line
6 s" e$ @. K& u+ `4 A* Z: NNext story: Building permits hit record$ u, ]: }) w$ f. L6 ~( A; Y- E
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