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% [. Z; |% O- g8 F: {# AThu, January 11, 2007
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5 x. |$ M7 l% l' g% m' `Price is still rightEdmonton Real Estate Board president expects a 15% climb in 2007
9 ]7 V/ k2 E! `) O! p- r; P# |- yBy NEIL WAUGH, EDMONTON SUN
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& E$ [; p1 g0 q' M3 UThey're changing the guard down at the Edmonton real estate palace.
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; O3 {- l' Q# ^. CMadeline Sarafinchan is out. Carolyn Pratt is taking over the Edmonton Real Estate Board president's gavel - the kind of blunt instrument that some realtors, I suspect, would like to use on ComFree Edmonton upstart Travis Holowach. More on that later.
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7 J3 `, K) K) d) }2 i# mBut first, the EREB president's bold predictions and fearless forecasts. & ^- Z7 b9 g2 } Y5 A' { t8 A
0 w4 o/ i' z8 N. o% x, UDon't expect a repeat of last year's housing boom where condo and single family dwelling prices spiked an incredible 52%. Pratt is now calling for a more modest increase of 15%.
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"We feel the increase will come because there will be continued demand, consumer confidence, a very robust economy and low interest rates," Pratt whooped at the EREB's New Year's kick-off conference at the Westin. "All the factors are there for another terrific year."
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?, z( e% q- h. i; ~$ J" r! jShe predicted that the total number of residential sales isn't expected to increase in 2007 - despite thousands of pot-of-gold seekers still flocking to the capital region from across the country as Ontario continues to sputter. 6 A8 p% K, F9 y# u
) ?8 S% E% R3 O8 F"There just won't be enough houses to sell," she sighed.
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Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation senior analyst Richard Goatcher was also talking a good-news-bad-news scenario at the board meeting.
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$ ~7 b, y) t, y; H"The big issue is, are we going to see continued in-migration into the city with the volumes we had last year?" Goatcher said. His expectation is "somewhat less."
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Still, total new-house starts will be "fairly similar" to last year's pace. 2006 turned out to be a record year. So was 2005. But Goatcher is predicting a 5% decrease in house starts.
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"A lot of it is due to capacity issues," he said. Developers are running out of serviced lots in some areas. Some homebuilders "got a little overstretched" during last year's house-building frenzy.
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7 s* m" X `: ?+ I1 E"There are too many shortages in the system," he shrugged. 6 u n8 [, z8 p, H# c$ O3 W/ L U
; H; Y2 d9 g; F+ I1 \"But it's still going to be very, very strong," he quickly added, with the average new-home selling price ramping up by 20%. Y8 M* O% c1 B
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/ R+ }7 b5 G0 j9 t4 z1 mHe also doesn't see a repeat of the 2006 price boom in the resale market, which he described as "unsustainable."
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, c3 z% p7 I, C/ r' a+ K% y- bExpect a more gentle 10% increase - mainly because many potential buyers are now being priced out of the market - even with zero down payment and 40-year mortgages.
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Over at ComFree Edmonton, president Travis Holowach was also celebrating what he described as a "steaming red hot" real estate market, and another "record-setting" year for his commission-free real estate service.
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. g$ H) n7 x8 _4 p% t$ @% ]$ sHis 2006 wind-up report shows 4,375 total sales and 5,721 new listings, up 74% from 2005 - clearly sucking up a lot of the inventory that would otherwise have gone to an EREB realtor.
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"Our growing presence in the marketplace is having a strong impact on the competition," Holowach winked.
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8 S0 t4 O- ~; B Y" _. [( Y8 VSo strong that the Alberta Real Estate Association launched a complaint with Alberta Government Services claiming ComFree was bending the truth about its market share. ) _ e Q2 W& d- Q
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Yesterday ComFree was still claiming 30% share of the residential market. And "commissions saved" of $82 million from his sell-it-yourself operation. Which, of course, is what the battle is really all about.
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7 j6 V* _! m, I3 C2 E' B A"We do 95% of the sales in the real estate market," Pratt countered. # F. M' G! E" C' Y/ L
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Let the good times roll.
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Previous story: Bottom Line5 T$ M/ I: w( p& M
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