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发表于 2009-7-18 08:28
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ZT - TMG - Will 5-Year Mortgage Rates Fall Further?
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5 t8 Z& x" W) A0 B+ m9 ~Banks last raised mortgage rates on June 9, when the 5-year bond yield was at 2.68%.
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Since then, the 5-year yield (which guides fixed mortgage pricing) has fallen to 2.44%, but bank rates have not budged.
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BMO economist, Doug Porter, told the Toronto Star it's because banks "want to be convinced that it is not a flash in the pan and that any retreat in yields is sustained."
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( k0 R& S3 V$ T3 u) u& NHe says: "I believe that we are probably not too far away from that point. It might take a little more of a deeper rally (in bond prices) to make it completely convincing."0 I( Z0 H5 I) ` \* ]) o1 ^/ `
, `0 ?+ G" |7 }) _7 W0 r- iThe often quoted CIBC economist, Benjamin Tal, thinks yields could fall another 0.05% to 0.10%, but any drop in fixed-rates will be short-lived. "By the end of the year, we'll start seeing rates rising," he says.
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If rates do drop another 0.10%, it would translate into a $5.50 monthly payment savings for every $100,000 of mortgage. That's a total savings of $478 over five years, assuming a 25-year amortization and typical fixed rates.
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( \$ }: v4 v7 X- `But remember, trying to time bond and mortgage rates is financially hazardous. While you're waiting, rates can move the wrong way-quickly. ! v3 Z l0 h9 b/ J" ?# ]8 p- Y% D
G7 F0 u2 t" ~ gYou're usually better served by focusing on factors that can dwarf a 0.10% rate savings, like finding a mortgage with the optimal term and just the right amount of flexibility (pre-payment options, openness, readvanceability, etc.). Too much flexibility is a waste, and too little can cost you in the long-run., ^$ G9 N' k+ E/ w6 m4 E
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$ A! U( [. t0 C4 t0 z# M4 N( Ewww.happymortgages.com |
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楼主: 郭森房贷
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发表于 2009-6-24 17:04
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