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发表于 2009-7-18 08:28
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ZT - TMG - Will 5-Year Mortgage Rates Fall Further?5 f) r3 \1 {: w( q& `4 w, |
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Banks last raised mortgage rates on June 9, when the 5-year bond yield was at 2.68%.' y7 ?1 l+ M* E) p, x& m8 N
9 C4 ~( }8 ?2 J4 U6 d. V2 u# bSince then, the 5-year yield (which guides fixed mortgage pricing) has fallen to 2.44%, but bank rates have not budged.
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BMO economist, Doug Porter, told the Toronto Star it's because banks "want to be convinced that it is not a flash in the pan and that any retreat in yields is sustained."
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He says: "I believe that we are probably not too far away from that point. It might take a little more of a deeper rally (in bond prices) to make it completely convincing."
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The often quoted CIBC economist, Benjamin Tal, thinks yields could fall another 0.05% to 0.10%, but any drop in fixed-rates will be short-lived. "By the end of the year, we'll start seeing rates rising," he says.
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. s% H7 S2 ^* }If rates do drop another 0.10%, it would translate into a $5.50 monthly payment savings for every $100,000 of mortgage. That's a total savings of $478 over five years, assuming a 25-year amortization and typical fixed rates.& m) h$ k# P) V. J! H
+ f( R/ ?- i. n+ bBut remember, trying to time bond and mortgage rates is financially hazardous. While you're waiting, rates can move the wrong way-quickly.
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& h5 v8 v8 {" e$ v4 P6 k5 v8 yYou're usually better served by focusing on factors that can dwarf a 0.10% rate savings, like finding a mortgage with the optimal term and just the right amount of flexibility (pre-payment options, openness, readvanceability, etc.). Too much flexibility is a waste, and too little can cost you in the long-run.% n" `+ S7 e+ [3 ?9 J) b3 n
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楼主: 郭森房贷
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发表于 2009-6-24 17:04
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