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发表于 2009-7-18 08:28
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ZT - TMG - Will 5-Year Mortgage Rates Fall Further?' X% K8 C8 \4 J$ x# {0 x& i: M
1 i: O8 G6 w) {1 Y6 vBanks last raised mortgage rates on June 9, when the 5-year bond yield was at 2.68%.
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7 P2 D; `$ u1 I- m( ^! Z" DSince then, the 5-year yield (which guides fixed mortgage pricing) has fallen to 2.44%, but bank rates have not budged.
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; S" z% h) P9 t- m4 bBMO economist, Doug Porter, told the Toronto Star it's because banks "want to be convinced that it is not a flash in the pan and that any retreat in yields is sustained."
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6 o& R- T3 {* @/ t( g6 }, J% vHe says: "I believe that we are probably not too far away from that point. It might take a little more of a deeper rally (in bond prices) to make it completely convincing."
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2 x0 X0 p& Z+ r7 b9 d6 \5 |) gThe often quoted CIBC economist, Benjamin Tal, thinks yields could fall another 0.05% to 0.10%, but any drop in fixed-rates will be short-lived. "By the end of the year, we'll start seeing rates rising," he says.- c B9 X& j) P" {! W8 l/ n/ y
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If rates do drop another 0.10%, it would translate into a $5.50 monthly payment savings for every $100,000 of mortgage. That's a total savings of $478 over five years, assuming a 25-year amortization and typical fixed rates. z" m) M; z1 Z- |" V
/ `' g+ Z( _9 c1 a4 m0 ABut remember, trying to time bond and mortgage rates is financially hazardous. While you're waiting, rates can move the wrong way-quickly.
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2 q: t" W9 |8 u# bYou're usually better served by focusing on factors that can dwarf a 0.10% rate savings, like finding a mortgage with the optimal term and just the right amount of flexibility (pre-payment options, openness, readvanceability, etc.). Too much flexibility is a waste, and too little can cost you in the long-run.
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楼主: 郭森房贷
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发表于 2009-6-24 17:04
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