爱城房价会简单重复卡城去年的故事吗？（周末灌水帖）

Crassula · 发表于 2007-7-18 19:53

With the oil price rising like that, No way the house price will drop.
Tons of young men move into Alberta every year(Still ongoing). They need place to live.
Like newspaper said, most of them are young and married or will be married in couple years,
Who will live in apartment forever especially the rent is as much as the interest of the loan.
If you have the downpayment, get one in this summer. Or you will miss a chance again like lot of people did last year.
It is so painful for those who claim the house price will drop dramatically last year.

Yang123 · 发表于 2007-7-18 20:44

如果以史为鉴，房价年增长为8% to 10%, 也就是说，十年房价一般增值215% to 256%. 从2000年到现在已涨了250%，以后几年房价或许已成强弩之末。油价也不会一直长。79-81 年间，油价也曾增到>$60/桶。95-98年间降至~$20/桶。再过几年油价降至~$20/桶也不为奇。

Crassula · 发表于 2007-7-20 20:48

How many people have cars in China in 1998? India? Brazil? How many factories back then?
How about now? Demand for oil has increased dramatically in the last 10 years. The found and explored oil source has not changed much.
Think about the population in China, India , Mexico and brazil. Total around 3 billion, half of the world population.
Those four countries are getting richer. Man, It is so surprised when I traveled China last time. $20 dollar? Just a day dream.

Crassula · 发表于 2007-7-20 21:23

Like I said before, claim without analysis is bullshit.
I support my analysis with data.
http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/dnav/pet/hist/wtotworldw.htm
We can see the oil price go up from $23 (2000) to $73 (now).
It is steady and no deep curve. It is so fit the China,India,Mexico and Brazil's GDP increase.
Amazingly around 9% for China, 7% for India, Mexico and Brazil.
By the by, they are not even slowing down yet. And there is no obvious fact that they will slow down in the next few years.
Another thing, As a 5th big city in Canada. The lowest unemployment rate, second youngest city (Calgory is the youngest). Don't remember the exact data.
It is from Toronto star. The 6.5% GDP increase last year in Alberta.
And after 250% increase, the house price cannot even match Toronto yet.
I have lived in Toronto before, the weather is not much better than Edmonton.
summer is way too hot and humid in Toronto. Winter is OK, but most people drive to work, so it is not that bad, at least for me.
And the house in Toronto is too old compare to Edmonton.
But the most important thing is the in and immigrant trend. If you ever talked to the poor young Yankee from Central and East Canada, you will
know they all like Edmonton, Or I should say they love the high wage they got paid in Emdonton.
My finger got tired after the typing. You all have a good night.

smalltown · 发表于 2007-7-21 08:37

原帖由 Crassula 于 2007-7-20 22:23 发表
- U( v9 J& V8 x. iLike I said before, claim without analysis is bullshit. O) J- d, E, v- F7 \' v6 @
I support my analysis with data." ]- y& N& Y6 Y2 H! s: W/ W+ r
http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/dnav/pet/hist/wtotworldw.htm
' z: b4 J) M6 n9 \6 `We can see the oil price go up from $23 (2000) to ...

The oil price may stay high or may even go up to $300 per barrell, but what is going to do to us and the real estate market?

1. Oil companies will make a huge profit, do we have a share from it? Probably very little if we are not investors. The investors(most of them are Americans) will benefit the most. Even though the oil price has been tripled, our wages only goes up by 5% a year. How is this level of income going to support sky high house prices?

2. High oil price could lead high inflation and high interest rates. As a result, it will increase borrowing cost and damage the house market.

Yang123 · 发表于 2007-7-21 09:28

First of all ,the price of crude didn't rise from $12 in early 1999 to nearly $70 because the world suddenly ran out of oil. On the contrary, the world supply of petroleum has risen more than 15 percent since then, according to the International Energy Agency.

Secondly, the oil price is self limiting. When the cost of oil goes up, production costs are increased and profits reduced for industries that depend on oil which cause slowdown of economic growth. Slow economic growth will cause oil price to go down. Plus higher oil prices encourage conservation and development of unconventional oil resources and alternative fuels. Higher oil prices should also help overcome at least some of the difficulties in developing the vast conventional reserves not fully connected to the market.

Crassula · 发表于 2007-7-21 10:25

Are you from Alberta? High oil price may hurt the whole world's real estate market. But it will not hurt those countries or provinces where produce oil. Central bank will not increase the interest rate only because of Alberta's booming. It will hurt other provinces more if you read the news how many jobs loss in the last 2 years in Ontario because of the high value of Loonie. Once again, if you are from Alberta, you will know those big public projects are all funded by tax which 35% from energy industry. Why do you think Alberta has labour shortage? Do you know how much we have suplus in the last 5 years, those are tax haven't been spent yet. Also if you have done your study of Alberta's real estate history, you will know every time oil price rise, house value increase in Alberta.

Yang123 · 发表于 2007-7-21 11:08

High oil price may hurt the whole world's real estate market. But it will not hurt those countries or provinces where produce oil.

Oil price is global though and responses to global economy as a whole.

frd2004 · 发表于 2007-7-21 11:48

原帖由 Monster 于 2007-7-16 13:59 发表
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月落乌啼总是千年的风霜涛声依旧不见当初的夜晚今天的你我怎样重复昨天的故事这一张旧船票能否登上你的客船.........
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这个复制Calgary的说法好象是我最先提的吧? 有误导嫌疑, 在此道个歉. 其实任何经济现 ... + V0 z8 p9 @& O
8 B9 U% W6 R4 d- G* a
登上船的朋友, enjoy你的旅程吧. 没有登上的, 现在船已经靠岸, 船票正在打折搞促销, 找好机会快上去, 不要等船开了干着急, 那时候只有坐快艇去追了.

再上，你就不怕船沉了？

Crassula · 发表于 2007-7-21 11:59

1. OPEC is not a Social Welfare Organization, they are not working for benifit of the whole world.
Price will not drop because of the surplus now, they are looking for the long term return.

2. No matter how the cost increase, for $70/Barrel, every barrel sold, there are $70 dollars
collected for Alberta. Tax, labour ... Who cares how the wage for labour shootup.
As long as there are tons of money push in Alberta every year. Everything in Alberta will be more expensive.
Real estate's value increases 3 times as the GDP increase. (it is from statistics Canada, cannot find that
source now). Think about it, last year GDP 6.5% for Alberta, 4.2% estimated for this year and 3.9% for next year.

How much is the interest rate now? 6.25% for the prime rate. How about 7.25% next year?
For the variable mortgage, 1% below prime, it is 6.25%. For one of my condo, I only pay
$17000/year (6.25% now) or $19700/year ( when it increase to 7.25%) for the interest.
If you lock in the 5 years fixed, rate will be even lower. Big deal, I collect rent $18800/year now.

For the same reason, the oil project will not slow down if the oil price is $35/barrel above.
Because that is the bottom line of oil sand profit in Alberta.

I don't want to argue with you guys anymore. Have a good weekend.

Yang123 · 发表于 2007-7-21 13:40

OPEC has seldom been effective at controlling prices. One of the primary requirements is a mechanism to enforce member quotas. But there is no effective one.

Historically surging prices caused several reactions among consumers: better insulation in new homes, increased insulation in many older homes, more energy efficiency in industrial processes, and automobiles with higher mileage. These factors along with a global recession caused a reduction in demand which led to falling crude prices.

The higher prices also resulted in increased exploration and production outside of OPEC, which also put more pressure for oil price reduction.

Global oil price has been always more related to global economic cycle and geopolitcal uncertainty and instability.

Crassula · 发表于 2007-7-21 16:13

Well, I don't want to claim I am an expert or something.
However, I did my research while I invested in Alberta's real estate.
Here are some about OPEC, and how they control the oil price.
http://srb.stanford.edu/nur/GP200A%20Papers/Pijush_Paul_paper.pdf see what is OPEC and why/how they manipulate the oil price.
http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/N01305253.htm
http://sfgate.com/cgi-bin/articl ... L&type=business Look for 2005 story
http://whenevilprospers.blogspot.com/2006_05_01_archive.html Look for the 2006 story
http://www.mees.com/postedarticles/oped/a47n09d01.htm Look for 2004 story
http://www.treehugger.com/files/2007/07/opec_threatens_1.php Look for 2007 story

Crassula · 发表于 2007-7-21 16:37

Forget to post the last oil production cut this February.
http://www.moo.gov.kw/magazine/e ... p;day=20&page=5

Chinson · 发表于 2007-7-21 20:10

你说了这么多, 我还是看不懂, 油价能不能降, 什么时候降. 如果油价在十年后降, 现在这房是买还是不买.

Yang123 · 发表于 2007-7-22 04:21

原帖由 Crassula 于 2007-7-21 17:13 发表 / f& Z; O5 Q6 `; w* b; a* \8 R
Well, I don't want to claim I am an expert or something.
$ T6 G* e3 n* W( i; uHowever, I did my research while I invested in Alberta's real estate.1 Q! x$ b( h! h8 [0 k" B
Here are some about OPEC, and how they control the oil price.4 {+ M. F/ D% K
htt ...

OPEC control 40% world supply of oil, the other 60% comes from out side of OPEC. They may affect the oil price for the short term but they can't control the price. Let's say if the global economy heads to a down turn because the oil price goes too high, which will result in less demand on oil, what OPEC is going to do to maintain the revenue level they enjoy right now?

You may predict that there are millions of people coming to Edmonton looking for opportunity... they all need a place to stay, don't they? But if they can't afford it, they won't be coming ...never forget the basic law of supply and demand from econ 101. Buyers must be able to purchase for demand to be effective and too much inventory reduces prices in cars, televisions, and of course...houses.

[ 本帖最后由 Yang123 于 2007-7-22 05:23 编辑 ]

eagle2007 · 发表于 2007-7-22 09:08

中国因素什么的能解释为什么油价从20到70吗?
2000年为什么油价那么低?7年时间需求就扩大这么多?中国进口石油占世界石油需求的多少?
谁觉得这make sense?

catty · 发表于 2007-7-22 09:43

好给你腾船上的地方啊

Crassula · 发表于 2007-7-22 09:58

My properties purchased in 2005 have doubled the value.
Do you think there are twice demands for the house? It is always the margin effect pushing the price.
Say, there are 100 barrel per day production capacity and there are 95b per day demand now, when the demand approaching 97b per day. What will happen, either increase the pc, or rise the price. If OPEC choose the option 1, only because the pressure from the G8. If OPEC ignore those pressures, my investment in Alberta will give me good return. Even for the properties I bought this year. Apparently, they have reduced the production this Febrary and there are only two chances a year for them to decide to increase or lower the production. So far no sign of the pressure from G8 yet.
Even G8 push them, it may take 8 months before they agree to increase the prodution. If you think OPEC have no power to control the price, why the price drop from last July to this January, and rise again after Feburary. Even it drops now, it will at least take one or two years before they can drop under $35. What do you think about the real estate in Edmonton? Like most who claimed it will drop last year, may have to rent for another 2 years without knowing if the market will go down or not. Like Chinson's question, should we buy it or not? Actually, we should not answer his question, we are just discussing the relationship between oil price and the housing market in Edmonton.

Yang123 · 发表于 2007-7-22 11:03

The primary concerns for purchasing primary residence and for investing in real estate are different. The primary concern to purchase for primary residence is that whether it's a good place to live (good school, convenience to work, good neighbrohood etc.) and whether you can afford it. The primary concern for purely investing in real estate is whether your investment will make a good return in the years to come and what is the risk/return ratio? The other major concern for investing is whether it gives your good cash flow.

masterdcw · 发表于 2007-7-22 14:17

不知道还会持续多久....不过坚信很快就会掉下来...,什么破房子,都被炒那么贵.

smalltown · 发表于 2007-7-22 17:49

原帖由 masterdcw 于 2007-7-22 15:17 发表 $ n+ u; k0 g& w* q+ W
不知道还会持续多久....不过坚信很快就会掉下来...,什么破房子,都被炒那么贵.

Agree, house prices will come down no matter of oil price. Given enough time(maybe 2 - 5 years), we can build as many houses as we want as we are not short of land.

peter666 · 发表于 2007-7-23 00:17

我昨天看了一个房(路过看看看), 是COME FREE
她说,这房是从32万降到今天的27万,但还是没卖出'.在北面,
可以看出点什么吗?

flagship · 发表于 2007-7-23 08:50

呵呵, 有点意思

不过能不能都说中文啊? 俺英文水平有限, 看不太懂咧....

常笑 · 发表于 2007-7-23 10:12

原帖由 peter666 于 2007-7-23 01:17 发表
6 P. @6 H' [5 y, ^/ e, ~我昨天看了一个房(路过看看看), 是COME FREE
" V/ Y; R! W7 ~- C1 R" s 她说,这房是从32万降到今天的27万,但还是没卖出'.在北面,) Q$ X* E$ D9 M
可以看出点什么吗?

我找了半天没找到你说的那个27万的房子

ftmcmurray · 发表于 2007-7-23 18:56

WST · 发表于 2007-7-24 10:09

原帖由 Yang123 于 2007-7-18 21:44 发表
- a# T: R, p( B+ X. _5 [# j如果以史为鉴，房价年增长为8% to 10%, 也就是说，十年房价一般增值215% to 256%. 从2000年到现在已涨了250%，以后几年房价或许已成强弩之末。油价也不会一直长。79-81 年间，油价也曾增到>$60/桶。95-98年间 ...

从1982-2000 每年平均涨幅不到3%。如果以史为鉴，房价年增长为8%，是否只算补涨？

Yang123 · 发表于 2007-7-24 11:26

原帖由 WST 于 2007-7-24 11:09 发表
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7 V; }; C# x7 ]8 ~从1982-2000 每年平均涨幅不到3%。如果以史为鉴，房价年增长为8%，是否只算补涨？

物极必反

survey99chenxu · 发表于 2007-7-26 14:27

涨还是跌，是个问题。

买还是租，是个难题。

熊猫阿宝 · 发表于 2007-7-26 15:28

原帖由 WST 于 2007-7-24 11:09 发表 2 N* A) k: M4 @/ t7 |4 T

6 D/ k' b: |, X q2 L' t& F从1982-2000 每年平均涨幅不到3%。如果以史为鉴，房价年增长为8%，是否只算补涨？

82-87 年好象是“补跌”来着。87-2000似乎年增长也超过4%了。
如果以史为鉴，房价年增长为8%么？那次谁说是5.25%来着？

我觉得近年也许称得上“补涨”，但是现在已经明显“补”过头了。

一半清醒 · 发表于 2007-7-26 21:19

俺这灌水帖，都让你们给说成了正事，汗颜呀。

大家都看到石油等自然资源的价格在不断上涨，爱城得房价也创出历史新高等等。这只是表象，通货膨胀才真凶----现在的1加元（或美元）与十年或二十年前的比有很大不同----更不值钱了。在石油的（使用）价值不变情况下，衡量其价格的货币贬值就体现其价格上涨，另外，现在用油的地方也在不断增加，市场上需求很大。
爱城的房价已经实现了快速补涨。

看跌房市，想买房自住或投资的，你们就祈祷吧，阿省的经济不断走下坡路，你还能保住较好的工作，实现有房的梦想或大赚其钱。
看涨房市，想在房地产市场投资赚钱，你们也祈祷吧，让阿省的经济增增日上，来更多的人，让他们租房或卖高价房。

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爱城房价会简单重复卡城去年的故事吗？（周末灌水帖）

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