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Alberta will sink into recession this year, as provincial fortunes turn amid oil’s collapse, CIBC predicts
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6 M( s- x+ y& t- d7 m: VGordon Isfeld | February 17, 2015 | Last Updated: Feb 17 6:00 PM ET- g# ]+ t% m9 R3 s# S" s' }
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Last year Alberta lead Canada's growth, but the plunge in oil prices has turned the tables on the nation's energy giants.* E, i' N: @) f w
BloombergLast year Alberta lead Canada's growth, but the plunge in oil prices has turned the tables on the nation's energy giants.5 f: J7 \. N* i% E1 |: e" l5 u
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OTTAWA — Consistently low oil prices could dramatically alter the economic landscape of Canada in the coming year and beyond, with Alberta slipping into a “mild” recession as a weak dollar helps lift the manufacturing hubs such as Ontario.3 E8 C" L; r N2 g
6 g2 d9 _" U; v5 lThat pattern is already being reflected in a slowdown in the oil patch-fueled housing market in Calgary and Edmonton, in addition to an anticipated knock-on increase in unemployment rates in the province.
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: M, o/ g- t1 v- oIn a report released Tuesday, titled The Tables Have Turned, economists at CIBC World Markets said recent data show “just how sharply the growth leadership is likely to swing.”
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Most startling, perhaps, is the likelihood Alberta will go from the leading economic power house in 2014 to recessionary levels this year.& \% P/ j1 \. i# U
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“Alberta looks headed for a mild and temporary recession,” said economists Avery Shenfeld and Nick Exarhos, pointing to a 0.3% decline in 2015, compared with 4.1% growth in 2014.
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, U! m6 t- v9 O0 |4 n$ U2 | mAs well, they see growth in Saskatchewan — the country’s other major resources-heavy province — suffering in 2015, managing an advance of only 0.8% this year, after 1% in 2014, but likely avoiding an outright downturn.( g9 m% s" [7 K- [5 I6 O- Q$ y7 o
; ]8 ?5 n# t7 i Z8 W- oHowever, Newfoundland and Labrador — also reliant on energy revenues — could contract more significantly this year, by 1.3%, and in 2016, by 1%.3 |- o% T$ K* C- r
( v- e7 z+ w: @5 C3 E, W! YIn contrast, Central Canada “should enjoy a small upside surprise,” thanks mainly to a healthy U.S. economy, CIBC predicts, along with a lift in exports from a weak Canadian dollar.' w' V5 k r$ n- A+ O, t
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& Q3 }0 E4 `. S" Y1 u7 z( ?7 QCanada’s oil capitals are headed for their first major housing correction since 2008, TD warns
: c& C; g3 H2 p6 m' jCenovus Energy Inc slashes staff by 15%, freezes pay in ‘challenging times for oil and gas industry’- j, ~3 r3 l- q/ G5 p4 { Y
The best oil traders in the business say this rout is not over
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7 V+ w2 E* o5 v! u( x- _" M" l$ |8 MThe Ontario economy will expand 2.8% this year, up from 2.1% in 2014, and add 2.8% next year, according to CIBC. Quebec should add 2.4% this year and 2.6% in 2016, after a restrained advance of 1.8% in 2014, the bank said. At the same time, British Columbia will continue its mid-2% growth trend.3 c A' y" u* e9 h( ~
; E2 ?+ o5 t& b" P' ~# `“That will translate into commensurate shifts in the employment picture, alleviating pressure in some areas — where, if anything, workers are currently in scarce supply — and lowering the jobless rate in Central Canada, where it has been stuck above the national average.”
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% Q7 q" y0 b& L0 Y: D, C4 b) Z0 TFor example, Alberta’s jobless rate could rise to an average of 6.8% this year, from 4.7% in 2014, the CIBC said, while Ontario should see its unemployment level fall to 6.6% from 7.2% last year.
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5 V' J! Y, z) K. |- k9 gCIBC expects overall growth in Canada to be around 1.9% this year, down from 2.4% in 2014, and rising by 2.5% next year.0 @* P5 l) j7 j8 |! H7 B
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Contrast those with the Bank of Canada’s 2.1% outlook for this year and 2.4% in 2016 issued in January, when policymakers surprised markets by cutting their benchmark lending rate to 0.75% from 1%, where it had stood since September 2010.
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The central bank’s GDP forecast is based on an average oil price of US$60 a barrel in 2015 and 2016. Crude was trading above US$53 on Tuesday, a gain on recent sessions.
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Meanwhile, the Canadian dollar closed near the US81￠ level.
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The regional shift is also evident in the housing market, where the slowdown in Calgary and Edmonton helped pull down national sales by 3.1% in January from December and by 2% from a year earlier, the Canadian Real Estate Association said Tuesday.9 S( c8 O' Q# i+ b
# [" d7 a7 G( Y/ z5 {“As expected, consumer confidence in the Prairies has declined and moved a number of potential homebuyers to the sidelines as a result,” CREA president Beth Crosbie said.* o* ~ _- _1 t9 X6 T
( n( I, R) O: V* UTotal January residential sales in Calgary were down 35.5% from a year earlier, while Edmonton fell 22.7%, Saskatoon lost 24% and Regina was off 6.9%.& h1 F' l3 b y3 B" N7 W3 s! O3 T" r
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“There’s little mystery behind the sudden reversal of fortune for the national figures, as sales in Calgary and Edmonton — and Saskatoon — fell more than 20% from a year ago, in what had been the hottest markets in the country,” said Douglas Porter, chief economist at BMO Capital Markets. |
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发表于 2015-2-1 17:34
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