 鲜花( 26)  鸡蛋( 0)
|
Alberta will sink into recession this year, as provincial fortunes turn amid oil’s collapse, CIBC predicts
+ v1 d$ ]4 Y) C/ |* |( X9 O1 t/ P7 O: ?% Z: b) P
Republish Reprint, B0 g5 y8 k& h# H @: B- N
Gordon Isfeld | February 17, 2015 | Last Updated: Feb 17 6:00 PM ET
1 A$ ^) T" ?) K/ ` a& FMore from Gordon Isfeld* j. r# e% b/ C3 h5 Q
Last year Alberta lead Canada's growth, but the plunge in oil prices has turned the tables on the nation's energy giants.
5 @0 S2 {# @- b- k cBloombergLast year Alberta lead Canada's growth, but the plunge in oil prices has turned the tables on the nation's energy giants.' l. D$ ~5 _( u2 n5 Z/ O
Twitter Google+ LinkedIn Email Typo? More" r% X$ J( [- P8 |: z; O- c
OTTAWA — Consistently low oil prices could dramatically alter the economic landscape of Canada in the coming year and beyond, with Alberta slipping into a “mild” recession as a weak dollar helps lift the manufacturing hubs such as Ontario.$ e; D$ Q @) o' _0 h, K' A" b( w2 k
3 w$ {# n4 n0 U" v& j2 `
That pattern is already being reflected in a slowdown in the oil patch-fueled housing market in Calgary and Edmonton, in addition to an anticipated knock-on increase in unemployment rates in the province.8 j* A& K) f( I4 q
" l, e0 x3 b% e' N3 q- c
In a report released Tuesday, titled The Tables Have Turned, economists at CIBC World Markets said recent data show “just how sharply the growth leadership is likely to swing.”
5 o' q1 ]0 G; t B4 x2 ]6 s* g! X$ C5 Y {
Most startling, perhaps, is the likelihood Alberta will go from the leading economic power house in 2014 to recessionary levels this year.
1 |6 c4 J$ l9 B! r$ Q% _ W. |' Z) ?
- m5 h/ Z. o( E* v. J* {+ S“Alberta looks headed for a mild and temporary recession,” said economists Avery Shenfeld and Nick Exarhos, pointing to a 0.3% decline in 2015, compared with 4.1% growth in 2014.; i/ p6 A* f: g3 h
1 b. o# W4 R' W6 ]: {0 m' qAs well, they see growth in Saskatchewan — the country’s other major resources-heavy province — suffering in 2015, managing an advance of only 0.8% this year, after 1% in 2014, but likely avoiding an outright downturn.4 } I1 w0 p$ q
! Q& o* W' {) U2 e6 v/ PHowever, Newfoundland and Labrador — also reliant on energy revenues — could contract more significantly this year, by 1.3%, and in 2016, by 1%.
& i4 N5 h8 @7 q/ X+ k+ P1 }& {, h: `0 B, t1 G( W6 n1 _. `
In contrast, Central Canada “should enjoy a small upside surprise,” thanks mainly to a healthy U.S. economy, CIBC predicts, along with a lift in exports from a weak Canadian dollar.5 X, m: Y5 J- e# `/ p- Y
3 E5 c- I: {" n5 j; }" S! m9 q6 r7 D9 y
Related
4 o. }* o1 l+ k! W8 B+ S6 u5 T) ^Canada’s oil capitals are headed for their first major housing correction since 2008, TD warns. `+ {3 }8 E( `1 n/ @$ w
Cenovus Energy Inc slashes staff by 15%, freezes pay in ‘challenging times for oil and gas industry’- [1 ], y+ R( y5 V; E3 e8 z
The best oil traders in the business say this rout is not over7 W) w8 Q! C6 E U6 [# ]$ M
Advertisement; e" [0 {+ b K; B( n" m
% y# C6 K" d8 |, |- ^( i6 [) r
5 J# k7 M& Q# ?4 M& t& AThe Ontario economy will expand 2.8% this year, up from 2.1% in 2014, and add 2.8% next year, according to CIBC. Quebec should add 2.4% this year and 2.6% in 2016, after a restrained advance of 1.8% in 2014, the bank said. At the same time, British Columbia will continue its mid-2% growth trend.
. y% \" g$ l. a
% ]) _# R# l- m9 a; w0 L- C3 z“That will translate into commensurate shifts in the employment picture, alleviating pressure in some areas — where, if anything, workers are currently in scarce supply — and lowering the jobless rate in Central Canada, where it has been stuck above the national average.”
% k# |( H7 p% R) r
* X9 ~/ ?* D }5 x$ b1 ?For example, Alberta’s jobless rate could rise to an average of 6.8% this year, from 4.7% in 2014, the CIBC said, while Ontario should see its unemployment level fall to 6.6% from 7.2% last year.
* y, j; c& H; h) l6 T9 k
& ]0 D+ L! G7 v) ]CIBC expects overall growth in Canada to be around 1.9% this year, down from 2.4% in 2014, and rising by 2.5% next year.
?+ Z# X) q7 U$ h5 {' a( s& m4 O+ d0 n6 N9 ~6 F
Contrast those with the Bank of Canada’s 2.1% outlook for this year and 2.4% in 2016 issued in January, when policymakers surprised markets by cutting their benchmark lending rate to 0.75% from 1%, where it had stood since September 2010.
7 ^* d4 D. O+ s9 ^( i6 b
) m' X6 u$ M4 I1 |, wThe central bank’s GDP forecast is based on an average oil price of US$60 a barrel in 2015 and 2016. Crude was trading above US$53 on Tuesday, a gain on recent sessions.% Z1 P* Q2 Y5 \! P6 N
; T" ^# A! ]" b/ X$ ^
Meanwhile, the Canadian dollar closed near the US81￠ level.
2 r# ]+ \0 H" I1 Q0 l; w3 z1 G0 b7 f! N& l6 ~ K
The regional shift is also evident in the housing market, where the slowdown in Calgary and Edmonton helped pull down national sales by 3.1% in January from December and by 2% from a year earlier, the Canadian Real Estate Association said Tuesday.2 t1 g9 C. i8 a, i" r G
- y3 w( ?6 T& N) p7 `" i
“As expected, consumer confidence in the Prairies has declined and moved a number of potential homebuyers to the sidelines as a result,” CREA president Beth Crosbie said.
1 O$ P' I5 ?9 x* _3 t5 Z
$ [; Y* L ]" N- d" h5 P" aTotal January residential sales in Calgary were down 35.5% from a year earlier, while Edmonton fell 22.7%, Saskatoon lost 24% and Regina was off 6.9%.2 n* A. Y1 b2 t( v
( t# [+ Q. B1 T5 h, o
“There’s little mystery behind the sudden reversal of fortune for the national figures, as sales in Calgary and Edmonton — and Saskatoon — fell more than 20% from a year ago, in what had been the hottest markets in the country,” said Douglas Porter, chief economist at BMO Capital Markets. |
|
楼主: yxia
狗仔卡
发表于 2015-2-1 17:34
显身卡
