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Alberta will sink into recession this year, as provincial fortunes turn amid oil’s collapse, CIBC predicts
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Gordon Isfeld | February 17, 2015 | Last Updated: Feb 17 6:00 PM ET6 ?7 o) U- l! J
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Last year Alberta lead Canada's growth, but the plunge in oil prices has turned the tables on the nation's energy giants.
' P8 [: _7 m6 G# D- J2 P# lBloombergLast year Alberta lead Canada's growth, but the plunge in oil prices has turned the tables on the nation's energy giants.
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OTTAWA — Consistently low oil prices could dramatically alter the economic landscape of Canada in the coming year and beyond, with Alberta slipping into a “mild” recession as a weak dollar helps lift the manufacturing hubs such as Ontario./ u' l! f% g9 e1 w q u; W
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That pattern is already being reflected in a slowdown in the oil patch-fueled housing market in Calgary and Edmonton, in addition to an anticipated knock-on increase in unemployment rates in the province.
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% d) V- m5 f# tIn a report released Tuesday, titled The Tables Have Turned, economists at CIBC World Markets said recent data show “just how sharply the growth leadership is likely to swing.”
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' j$ w+ t4 K1 D3 C: o2 l7 JMost startling, perhaps, is the likelihood Alberta will go from the leading economic power house in 2014 to recessionary levels this year.; e; l5 B1 h# w) b+ x
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“Alberta looks headed for a mild and temporary recession,” said economists Avery Shenfeld and Nick Exarhos, pointing to a 0.3% decline in 2015, compared with 4.1% growth in 2014.' i ~2 t) q6 ~9 h$ f1 a4 T
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As well, they see growth in Saskatchewan — the country’s other major resources-heavy province — suffering in 2015, managing an advance of only 0.8% this year, after 1% in 2014, but likely avoiding an outright downturn.
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- X7 I7 B4 t% b6 V/ c. OHowever, Newfoundland and Labrador — also reliant on energy revenues — could contract more significantly this year, by 1.3%, and in 2016, by 1%.
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In contrast, Central Canada “should enjoy a small upside surprise,” thanks mainly to a healthy U.S. economy, CIBC predicts, along with a lift in exports from a weak Canadian dollar.
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: A/ [0 L6 F/ I! p" Y- DRelated
& |$ u. g1 B, ?) R) q& sCanada’s oil capitals are headed for their first major housing correction since 2008, TD warns) ~! k+ s, Y* U9 \7 v
Cenovus Energy Inc slashes staff by 15%, freezes pay in ‘challenging times for oil and gas industry’
2 } n. \4 R9 G+ a7 D. U2 jThe best oil traders in the business say this rout is not over
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1 K3 l" J5 r- j: r3 _* iThe Ontario economy will expand 2.8% this year, up from 2.1% in 2014, and add 2.8% next year, according to CIBC. Quebec should add 2.4% this year and 2.6% in 2016, after a restrained advance of 1.8% in 2014, the bank said. At the same time, British Columbia will continue its mid-2% growth trend.
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“That will translate into commensurate shifts in the employment picture, alleviating pressure in some areas — where, if anything, workers are currently in scarce supply — and lowering the jobless rate in Central Canada, where it has been stuck above the national average.”
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For example, Alberta’s jobless rate could rise to an average of 6.8% this year, from 4.7% in 2014, the CIBC said, while Ontario should see its unemployment level fall to 6.6% from 7.2% last year.
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3 `* e, l* B. t# pCIBC expects overall growth in Canada to be around 1.9% this year, down from 2.4% in 2014, and rising by 2.5% next year.* F& t* {; ?5 U( n6 H
) B1 N) m4 X4 M: u% EContrast those with the Bank of Canada’s 2.1% outlook for this year and 2.4% in 2016 issued in January, when policymakers surprised markets by cutting their benchmark lending rate to 0.75% from 1%, where it had stood since September 2010.' J; u, _) r$ E1 t$ `1 Q3 }
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The central bank’s GDP forecast is based on an average oil price of US$60 a barrel in 2015 and 2016. Crude was trading above US$53 on Tuesday, a gain on recent sessions.
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$ n* L2 T/ {# o* [6 vMeanwhile, the Canadian dollar closed near the US81￠ level.
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/ k1 ]6 N- o( v7 o' T: \The regional shift is also evident in the housing market, where the slowdown in Calgary and Edmonton helped pull down national sales by 3.1% in January from December and by 2% from a year earlier, the Canadian Real Estate Association said Tuesday.
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' H1 d+ K* L9 M8 R6 k+ M) {; v3 c“As expected, consumer confidence in the Prairies has declined and moved a number of potential homebuyers to the sidelines as a result,” CREA president Beth Crosbie said.
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Total January residential sales in Calgary were down 35.5% from a year earlier, while Edmonton fell 22.7%, Saskatoon lost 24% and Regina was off 6.9%.4 A# q) m1 j' K5 {; {, M
. q# W: T# D3 G( R“There’s little mystery behind the sudden reversal of fortune for the national figures, as sales in Calgary and Edmonton — and Saskatoon — fell more than 20% from a year ago, in what had been the hottest markets in the country,” said Douglas Porter, chief economist at BMO Capital Markets. |
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发表于 2015-2-1 17:34
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