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Alberta will sink into recession this year, as provincial fortunes turn amid oil’s collapse, CIBC predicts% x+ E( J) n3 P+ s
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0 \) ^+ [: p5 G- O5 |6 NGordon Isfeld | February 17, 2015 | Last Updated: Feb 17 6:00 PM ET
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, K s& ^% ]# ]3 TLast year Alberta lead Canada's growth, but the plunge in oil prices has turned the tables on the nation's energy giants.
" y' E. V" i! `: Q7 wBloombergLast year Alberta lead Canada's growth, but the plunge in oil prices has turned the tables on the nation's energy giants.' W; c/ U# ?, t4 q' D6 V) H4 ?
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' L6 r0 w: v& z, L# `! S4 ?& `OTTAWA — Consistently low oil prices could dramatically alter the economic landscape of Canada in the coming year and beyond, with Alberta slipping into a “mild” recession as a weak dollar helps lift the manufacturing hubs such as Ontario.
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That pattern is already being reflected in a slowdown in the oil patch-fueled housing market in Calgary and Edmonton, in addition to an anticipated knock-on increase in unemployment rates in the province.+ t4 z3 [1 f1 T* u! v2 u8 t9 f& Z
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In a report released Tuesday, titled The Tables Have Turned, economists at CIBC World Markets said recent data show “just how sharply the growth leadership is likely to swing.”
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9 g! F/ r# Z# Z. G4 V# Y! HMost startling, perhaps, is the likelihood Alberta will go from the leading economic power house in 2014 to recessionary levels this year.
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0 F) L: [( B5 s“Alberta looks headed for a mild and temporary recession,” said economists Avery Shenfeld and Nick Exarhos, pointing to a 0.3% decline in 2015, compared with 4.1% growth in 2014.2 n4 l A0 a! y" K* k) H
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As well, they see growth in Saskatchewan — the country’s other major resources-heavy province — suffering in 2015, managing an advance of only 0.8% this year, after 1% in 2014, but likely avoiding an outright downturn.
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However, Newfoundland and Labrador — also reliant on energy revenues — could contract more significantly this year, by 1.3%, and in 2016, by 1%. O9 e! s* |8 X. V: I1 a
( G( B! c8 f( r" d! dIn contrast, Central Canada “should enjoy a small upside surprise,” thanks mainly to a healthy U.S. economy, CIBC predicts, along with a lift in exports from a weak Canadian dollar.- P/ s9 M: [+ |; T0 x. l8 I
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( k' p6 g, X; G8 S# c3 a$ z' c! U4 \; GCanada’s oil capitals are headed for their first major housing correction since 2008, TD warns0 a8 P# f. B0 W; W a* H
Cenovus Energy Inc slashes staff by 15%, freezes pay in ‘challenging times for oil and gas industry’
0 S1 H- m! t6 Y- r$ ]' qThe best oil traders in the business say this rout is not over) Z) Z. F( W1 b4 V: x
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M2 i* W9 f. P5 MThe Ontario economy will expand 2.8% this year, up from 2.1% in 2014, and add 2.8% next year, according to CIBC. Quebec should add 2.4% this year and 2.6% in 2016, after a restrained advance of 1.8% in 2014, the bank said. At the same time, British Columbia will continue its mid-2% growth trend.
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" a$ ^& B: S1 z/ [“That will translate into commensurate shifts in the employment picture, alleviating pressure in some areas — where, if anything, workers are currently in scarce supply — and lowering the jobless rate in Central Canada, where it has been stuck above the national average.”
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6 Q% t1 m9 ^6 X" yFor example, Alberta’s jobless rate could rise to an average of 6.8% this year, from 4.7% in 2014, the CIBC said, while Ontario should see its unemployment level fall to 6.6% from 7.2% last year.+ p- W: o. ?6 r3 l, }" ~9 D- A2 P. y
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CIBC expects overall growth in Canada to be around 1.9% this year, down from 2.4% in 2014, and rising by 2.5% next year.8 r# m" P6 \/ K- v( w( R9 P2 b. I
4 \& x' L3 R; p! a+ qContrast those with the Bank of Canada’s 2.1% outlook for this year and 2.4% in 2016 issued in January, when policymakers surprised markets by cutting their benchmark lending rate to 0.75% from 1%, where it had stood since September 2010.
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# p9 H/ R: M9 D) l% s1 n" RThe central bank’s GDP forecast is based on an average oil price of US$60 a barrel in 2015 and 2016. Crude was trading above US$53 on Tuesday, a gain on recent sessions.
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Meanwhile, the Canadian dollar closed near the US81￠ level./ }/ }- d" @: W, a) Z3 f
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The regional shift is also evident in the housing market, where the slowdown in Calgary and Edmonton helped pull down national sales by 3.1% in January from December and by 2% from a year earlier, the Canadian Real Estate Association said Tuesday.; M6 C* t8 f; X* H( F
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“As expected, consumer confidence in the Prairies has declined and moved a number of potential homebuyers to the sidelines as a result,” CREA president Beth Crosbie said.$ Z6 H6 z6 \2 ?- [/ `
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Total January residential sales in Calgary were down 35.5% from a year earlier, while Edmonton fell 22.7%, Saskatoon lost 24% and Regina was off 6.9%.+ J8 {( ?7 T; Q8 C! u4 }1 ~0 O1 [3 u
' k) l1 A; s: K: g! t“There’s little mystery behind the sudden reversal of fortune for the national figures, as sales in Calgary and Edmonton — and Saskatoon — fell more than 20% from a year ago, in what had been the hottest markets in the country,” said Douglas Porter, chief economist at BMO Capital Markets. |
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发表于 2015-2-1 17:34
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