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Alberta will sink into recession this year, as provincial fortunes turn amid oil’s collapse, CIBC predicts
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Gordon Isfeld | February 17, 2015 | Last Updated: Feb 17 6:00 PM ET; q3 k4 U) }; t g. a6 t$ b
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Last year Alberta lead Canada's growth, but the plunge in oil prices has turned the tables on the nation's energy giants.2 P2 r. O) F% w
BloombergLast year Alberta lead Canada's growth, but the plunge in oil prices has turned the tables on the nation's energy giants.
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, I4 T' D& w, H3 O, k* d0 l) gOTTAWA — Consistently low oil prices could dramatically alter the economic landscape of Canada in the coming year and beyond, with Alberta slipping into a “mild” recession as a weak dollar helps lift the manufacturing hubs such as Ontario.0 T& w9 D3 n, f3 r
. x5 q7 P5 S! r( d! |% [That pattern is already being reflected in a slowdown in the oil patch-fueled housing market in Calgary and Edmonton, in addition to an anticipated knock-on increase in unemployment rates in the province.& M& ?' G* r* [4 @& f2 S
8 K& _! ~4 }3 R+ j Z R6 DIn a report released Tuesday, titled The Tables Have Turned, economists at CIBC World Markets said recent data show “just how sharply the growth leadership is likely to swing.”
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* T- P+ ^. ?: p* JMost startling, perhaps, is the likelihood Alberta will go from the leading economic power house in 2014 to recessionary levels this year.
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" }/ f+ X( n+ O$ y“Alberta looks headed for a mild and temporary recession,” said economists Avery Shenfeld and Nick Exarhos, pointing to a 0.3% decline in 2015, compared with 4.1% growth in 2014.- m2 p, U; J! Y" K, I* R
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As well, they see growth in Saskatchewan — the country’s other major resources-heavy province — suffering in 2015, managing an advance of only 0.8% this year, after 1% in 2014, but likely avoiding an outright downturn.
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9 J" v9 E8 _. Q* d7 T& S0 ZHowever, Newfoundland and Labrador — also reliant on energy revenues — could contract more significantly this year, by 1.3%, and in 2016, by 1%.1 A& j% x. c$ `: M8 c! P5 j
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In contrast, Central Canada “should enjoy a small upside surprise,” thanks mainly to a healthy U.S. economy, CIBC predicts, along with a lift in exports from a weak Canadian dollar.) y5 ^ w0 A9 R4 S" T3 W/ f4 L
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Canada’s oil capitals are headed for their first major housing correction since 2008, TD warns
: W0 x% q: h( u4 {1 L+ [5 }5 X9 f& ?% sCenovus Energy Inc slashes staff by 15%, freezes pay in ‘challenging times for oil and gas industry’
. W, }+ T' l, R3 t2 o3 x. O: EThe best oil traders in the business say this rout is not over
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' t5 a. H/ j1 v( _The Ontario economy will expand 2.8% this year, up from 2.1% in 2014, and add 2.8% next year, according to CIBC. Quebec should add 2.4% this year and 2.6% in 2016, after a restrained advance of 1.8% in 2014, the bank said. At the same time, British Columbia will continue its mid-2% growth trend.
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" k( U4 k$ O; H. C: `“That will translate into commensurate shifts in the employment picture, alleviating pressure in some areas — where, if anything, workers are currently in scarce supply — and lowering the jobless rate in Central Canada, where it has been stuck above the national average.”
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8 v: I" \! b- C+ O* s6 WFor example, Alberta’s jobless rate could rise to an average of 6.8% this year, from 4.7% in 2014, the CIBC said, while Ontario should see its unemployment level fall to 6.6% from 7.2% last year.9 N& H# F) D" `2 {9 r, O
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CIBC expects overall growth in Canada to be around 1.9% this year, down from 2.4% in 2014, and rising by 2.5% next year.( W5 W% Z$ i9 I1 Z: K
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Contrast those with the Bank of Canada’s 2.1% outlook for this year and 2.4% in 2016 issued in January, when policymakers surprised markets by cutting their benchmark lending rate to 0.75% from 1%, where it had stood since September 2010.3 |( V8 o* |2 o: S% [: J3 \- z; v! W
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The central bank’s GDP forecast is based on an average oil price of US$60 a barrel in 2015 and 2016. Crude was trading above US$53 on Tuesday, a gain on recent sessions.1 x, O( y1 q* }9 C; Q6 z
( n9 L. r* q1 D0 G$ nMeanwhile, the Canadian dollar closed near the US81￠ level.
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The regional shift is also evident in the housing market, where the slowdown in Calgary and Edmonton helped pull down national sales by 3.1% in January from December and by 2% from a year earlier, the Canadian Real Estate Association said Tuesday.$ d) o- @" y3 g5 X6 h% q
, s% U9 k0 t# `) l" e& F“As expected, consumer confidence in the Prairies has declined and moved a number of potential homebuyers to the sidelines as a result,” CREA president Beth Crosbie said.
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- O1 t/ X# ?( JTotal January residential sales in Calgary were down 35.5% from a year earlier, while Edmonton fell 22.7%, Saskatoon lost 24% and Regina was off 6.9%.2 L; Y" }8 z) f2 T2 r5 u& P
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“There’s little mystery behind the sudden reversal of fortune for the national figures, as sales in Calgary and Edmonton — and Saskatoon — fell more than 20% from a year ago, in what had been the hottest markets in the country,” said Douglas Porter, chief economist at BMO Capital Markets. |
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发表于 2015-2-1 17:34
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