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Alberta will sink into recession this year, as provincial fortunes turn amid oil’s collapse, CIBC predicts
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2 z# N/ a2 ?. a( B5 i7 }- j$ MGordon Isfeld | February 17, 2015 | Last Updated: Feb 17 6:00 PM ET" _4 u+ a: s7 F/ N5 t
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Last year Alberta lead Canada's growth, but the plunge in oil prices has turned the tables on the nation's energy giants.
8 l6 y! k! Q6 v; N( ^+ l# z. ]BloombergLast year Alberta lead Canada's growth, but the plunge in oil prices has turned the tables on the nation's energy giants.9 [9 g- D+ v7 c6 e5 u
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OTTAWA — Consistently low oil prices could dramatically alter the economic landscape of Canada in the coming year and beyond, with Alberta slipping into a “mild” recession as a weak dollar helps lift the manufacturing hubs such as Ontario." j. [( b. Y/ N X2 ^0 R
. G/ W; p- R$ c' ?5 G; SThat pattern is already being reflected in a slowdown in the oil patch-fueled housing market in Calgary and Edmonton, in addition to an anticipated knock-on increase in unemployment rates in the province.
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In a report released Tuesday, titled The Tables Have Turned, economists at CIBC World Markets said recent data show “just how sharply the growth leadership is likely to swing.”
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Most startling, perhaps, is the likelihood Alberta will go from the leading economic power house in 2014 to recessionary levels this year.
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3 W+ t9 z( s! g* ^“Alberta looks headed for a mild and temporary recession,” said economists Avery Shenfeld and Nick Exarhos, pointing to a 0.3% decline in 2015, compared with 4.1% growth in 2014.
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7 [! e, @( k' w8 c9 oAs well, they see growth in Saskatchewan — the country’s other major resources-heavy province — suffering in 2015, managing an advance of only 0.8% this year, after 1% in 2014, but likely avoiding an outright downturn.& C) l* l" V! X5 o
. r! x" G& R5 j3 Y0 P' f' x. A+ I/ N( THowever, Newfoundland and Labrador — also reliant on energy revenues — could contract more significantly this year, by 1.3%, and in 2016, by 1%., T1 ~* B( C: D: E2 H
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In contrast, Central Canada “should enjoy a small upside surprise,” thanks mainly to a healthy U.S. economy, CIBC predicts, along with a lift in exports from a weak Canadian dollar.
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5 x, Y! ^. P+ i' c' _* H& g5 uRelated
& W U6 X' ~7 S% s i3 VCanada’s oil capitals are headed for their first major housing correction since 2008, TD warns1 `) u& ^! ]. ^% B
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The best oil traders in the business say this rout is not over
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The Ontario economy will expand 2.8% this year, up from 2.1% in 2014, and add 2.8% next year, according to CIBC. Quebec should add 2.4% this year and 2.6% in 2016, after a restrained advance of 1.8% in 2014, the bank said. At the same time, British Columbia will continue its mid-2% growth trend.3 i1 O% z, h, i! f1 ]% J( m
' A/ {4 x$ r3 Y2 y- ?( {' ]8 d“That will translate into commensurate shifts in the employment picture, alleviating pressure in some areas — where, if anything, workers are currently in scarce supply — and lowering the jobless rate in Central Canada, where it has been stuck above the national average.”
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For example, Alberta’s jobless rate could rise to an average of 6.8% this year, from 4.7% in 2014, the CIBC said, while Ontario should see its unemployment level fall to 6.6% from 7.2% last year.1 l' H& k: Q8 y
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CIBC expects overall growth in Canada to be around 1.9% this year, down from 2.4% in 2014, and rising by 2.5% next year.7 D7 ]" _# u- F! R$ i' `& k
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Contrast those with the Bank of Canada’s 2.1% outlook for this year and 2.4% in 2016 issued in January, when policymakers surprised markets by cutting their benchmark lending rate to 0.75% from 1%, where it had stood since September 2010., K' J; k9 ]* F# `
+ |- s) R* e4 {* X4 ^( V, [The central bank’s GDP forecast is based on an average oil price of US$60 a barrel in 2015 and 2016. Crude was trading above US$53 on Tuesday, a gain on recent sessions.* p! j5 `9 C" p4 }9 ?" H
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Meanwhile, the Canadian dollar closed near the US81￠ level.+ K' Y4 D4 I9 I: o9 F7 k- f
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The regional shift is also evident in the housing market, where the slowdown in Calgary and Edmonton helped pull down national sales by 3.1% in January from December and by 2% from a year earlier, the Canadian Real Estate Association said Tuesday.7 |2 w* J$ m% j9 I& F8 g
" ]: Z; g& Y" r0 C& S“As expected, consumer confidence in the Prairies has declined and moved a number of potential homebuyers to the sidelines as a result,” CREA president Beth Crosbie said.
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5 w6 t' ~, @! z, x7 {: Z+ BTotal January residential sales in Calgary were down 35.5% from a year earlier, while Edmonton fell 22.7%, Saskatoon lost 24% and Regina was off 6.9%.
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7 z% s# B# K6 f“There’s little mystery behind the sudden reversal of fortune for the national figures, as sales in Calgary and Edmonton — and Saskatoon — fell more than 20% from a year ago, in what had been the hottest markets in the country,” said Douglas Porter, chief economist at BMO Capital Markets. |
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发表于 2015-2-1 17:34
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