 鲜花( 26)  鸡蛋( 0)
|
Alberta will sink into recession this year, as provincial fortunes turn amid oil’s collapse, CIBC predicts
, F2 D$ @) [6 Z' @# t8 K, E2 V! S6 L0 q5 U# [% B
Republish Reprint, ~* [: o5 @6 I0 A
Gordon Isfeld | February 17, 2015 | Last Updated: Feb 17 6:00 PM ET
8 g- V1 ]) g, s' ?0 FMore from Gordon Isfeld: b: I. B, ~; ~0 U+ b9 q; j
Last year Alberta lead Canada's growth, but the plunge in oil prices has turned the tables on the nation's energy giants.
4 w2 U! p% d$ _! R4 q; j+ ]BloombergLast year Alberta lead Canada's growth, but the plunge in oil prices has turned the tables on the nation's energy giants.! R" f- c/ O# a4 s8 a3 X1 ~
Twitter Google+ LinkedIn Email Typo? More
' p q% g3 c# A) S/ MOTTAWA — Consistently low oil prices could dramatically alter the economic landscape of Canada in the coming year and beyond, with Alberta slipping into a “mild” recession as a weak dollar helps lift the manufacturing hubs such as Ontario.% P" x* R, B) q: G2 q
- ^3 X! n4 L) L1 g2 WThat pattern is already being reflected in a slowdown in the oil patch-fueled housing market in Calgary and Edmonton, in addition to an anticipated knock-on increase in unemployment rates in the province.9 |1 ^9 E/ G3 G5 [
0 b5 ], t; B3 c8 g
In a report released Tuesday, titled The Tables Have Turned, economists at CIBC World Markets said recent data show “just how sharply the growth leadership is likely to swing.”" k n' d' j( M; p% k
, G! I, U& l/ y+ k6 J5 P, ]' PMost startling, perhaps, is the likelihood Alberta will go from the leading economic power house in 2014 to recessionary levels this year.7 C w6 z6 _& J, h) w, A
5 Q' F& s/ G3 L
“Alberta looks headed for a mild and temporary recession,” said economists Avery Shenfeld and Nick Exarhos, pointing to a 0.3% decline in 2015, compared with 4.1% growth in 2014.
! { W3 p8 V+ x5 _/ { L5 Q$ T) k( R: @6 k) ~% Y2 S! p
As well, they see growth in Saskatchewan — the country’s other major resources-heavy province — suffering in 2015, managing an advance of only 0.8% this year, after 1% in 2014, but likely avoiding an outright downturn.
1 ?+ w4 `. L' d5 Q! _& j4 }- _2 e5 c! N2 {. W
However, Newfoundland and Labrador — also reliant on energy revenues — could contract more significantly this year, by 1.3%, and in 2016, by 1%.
0 \+ e- W }4 `2 f8 K# x( Y* C8 P) H4 l9 X5 n/ w0 L
In contrast, Central Canada “should enjoy a small upside surprise,” thanks mainly to a healthy U.S. economy, CIBC predicts, along with a lift in exports from a weak Canadian dollar." j4 u" b7 g9 r! U4 h
9 P& x$ g, U0 {( _Related
. V* j/ B" I6 y% D {0 ACanada’s oil capitals are headed for their first major housing correction since 2008, TD warns
1 A- u( Y& J4 n F% cCenovus Energy Inc slashes staff by 15%, freezes pay in ‘challenging times for oil and gas industry’# O' n! y2 r! z. v4 h; o: m
The best oil traders in the business say this rout is not over) @4 A: d5 T( }% b
Advertisement
. \: J ~$ U/ x' p, `) `$ S C6 p: y
4 I3 j; x8 u7 [3 b5 i6 ]
The Ontario economy will expand 2.8% this year, up from 2.1% in 2014, and add 2.8% next year, according to CIBC. Quebec should add 2.4% this year and 2.6% in 2016, after a restrained advance of 1.8% in 2014, the bank said. At the same time, British Columbia will continue its mid-2% growth trend.9 a4 l5 P+ D' ^
2 y7 Q+ F/ P9 h& O5 @0 B. p: ~“That will translate into commensurate shifts in the employment picture, alleviating pressure in some areas — where, if anything, workers are currently in scarce supply — and lowering the jobless rate in Central Canada, where it has been stuck above the national average.”& ]% y9 }$ V5 [ ^
+ g: H- \3 Q& A2 FFor example, Alberta’s jobless rate could rise to an average of 6.8% this year, from 4.7% in 2014, the CIBC said, while Ontario should see its unemployment level fall to 6.6% from 7.2% last year., z+ P# ?, I# ~) d# f
. @/ f" U C5 C( I7 tCIBC expects overall growth in Canada to be around 1.9% this year, down from 2.4% in 2014, and rising by 2.5% next year.
R0 ?$ k- h2 M( ^# l' g3 r! o' H2 A
Contrast those with the Bank of Canada’s 2.1% outlook for this year and 2.4% in 2016 issued in January, when policymakers surprised markets by cutting their benchmark lending rate to 0.75% from 1%, where it had stood since September 2010.- I9 P8 X0 \1 \+ \6 y/ }' \; @
9 q* k' p7 V G/ ~5 t' {The central bank’s GDP forecast is based on an average oil price of US$60 a barrel in 2015 and 2016. Crude was trading above US$53 on Tuesday, a gain on recent sessions.9 A8 |# ^8 z1 N' n, w/ i4 e G$ q
- f$ N1 h9 r2 V( I4 yMeanwhile, the Canadian dollar closed near the US81￠ level.
" W2 j: j4 d: S' O+ z2 F& K# h. ^. ^9 j$ q# `; d
The regional shift is also evident in the housing market, where the slowdown in Calgary and Edmonton helped pull down national sales by 3.1% in January from December and by 2% from a year earlier, the Canadian Real Estate Association said Tuesday.
! E# |5 W: q7 {# i) m: Q4 q, `" h) U4 ?6 E% K V
“As expected, consumer confidence in the Prairies has declined and moved a number of potential homebuyers to the sidelines as a result,” CREA president Beth Crosbie said.
/ C4 R8 F3 D( d2 |" d; I7 |) A: ]2 n
6 L0 o& a; C+ \Total January residential sales in Calgary were down 35.5% from a year earlier, while Edmonton fell 22.7%, Saskatoon lost 24% and Regina was off 6.9%.
- j1 m" s: l7 t5 e/ f8 ?) z& |8 N; h$ i
“There’s little mystery behind the sudden reversal of fortune for the national figures, as sales in Calgary and Edmonton — and Saskatoon — fell more than 20% from a year ago, in what had been the hottest markets in the country,” said Douglas Porter, chief economist at BMO Capital Markets. |
|
楼主: yxia
狗仔卡
发表于 2015-2-1 17:34
显身卡
