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发表于 2015-9-11 09:37
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9 D7 {2 l6 [: G: CBy Barani Krishnan
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5 y$ @7 s0 A. ]" ~NEW YORK (Reuters) - Crude futures fell on Friday after Wall Street's most influential voice in oil trading, Goldman Sachs, slashed its price outlook through next year, citing oversupply and concerns about China's economy.1 j; D2 o" p/ S0 L
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Joining Germany's Commerzbank and a long list of other banks in cutting price projections, Goldman lowered its 2016 forecast for U.S. crude to $45 a barrel from $57 previously, and Brent to $49.50 from $62.
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"The oil market is even more oversupplied than we had expected and we forecast this surplus to persist in 2016," Goldman said in a note entitled "Lower for even longer". S6 g% g/ Y, U. {) j& Q
* h; M1 b0 ]6 pCiting "operational stress" as a growing downside risk to its forecast, Goldman said crude could fall further to near $20 a barrel. "While not our base case, the potential for oil prices to fall to such levels ... is becoming greater as3 R. Y) R1 e# P8 k
N9 P( A+ W# Q ?1 t- F2 lstorage continues to fill." B. B6 g I$ S$ \6 U- f/ e
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U.S. crude futures' front-month contract <CLc1> was down $1, or 2.2 percent, at $44.92 a barrel by 11:54 a.m. EDT.
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! ?- e8 V3 J( S' \The front-month in Brent <LCOc1>, the global benchmark for oil, was off 70 cents, or 1.3 percent, at $48.19., n; T1 n5 I% j3 U8 l5 R" n: b
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Both crude benchmarks had fallen about 3 percent, before paring loses with stocks on Wall Street. The U.S. stocks have provided direction to oil over the last two weeks as investors grappled with mixed fundamentals for crude.
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The oil market is waiting next for a weekly reading of the U.S. oil rig count, due at 1:00 p.m. ET. The data will show for whether oil producers were cutting back on drilling as prices head lower again after a brief rebound in the second quarter.4 t0 K1 e: `: B
5 C8 N4 d, d! ?0 `; rCrude prices have more than halved over the past year, with Brent tumbling from nearly $120 a barrel in the middle of 2014 to below $43 last month. Prices collapsed as a global glut of crude pushed commercial and government inventories to all-time highs.. R% [8 ~; f/ Y- J. t# N* w6 a
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Analysts say the market is rebalancing, but high stocks will keep weighing on prices into next year.
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) G" t6 @ y, `& m- n' Y) b$ X; sGermany's Commerzbank said Brent was likely to trade at $55 by the end of 2015, and around $65 by end-2016.
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u' c- F% u- HInvestors shrugged off a report from the Paris-based International Energy Agency, which advises the world's biggest economies on energy policy. The IEA said a move by the world's big oil exporters in OPEC, led by Saudi Arabia, to defend their market share by not reducing production, appeared to be working.9 E/ }" v1 r0 H
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(Additional reporting by Lisa Barrington and Christopher Johnson in London and Meeyoung Cho in Seoul; Editing by Nick Zieminski and David Gregorio) |
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楼主: jeffyu1988
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