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发表于 2015-9-11 09:37
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3 X* M( f# P6 C; P. O( MBy Barani Krishnan
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( O p* S: Z- y/ d- uNEW YORK (Reuters) - Crude futures fell on Friday after Wall Street's most influential voice in oil trading, Goldman Sachs, slashed its price outlook through next year, citing oversupply and concerns about China's economy.
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7 n6 e! O+ c& I; AJoining Germany's Commerzbank and a long list of other banks in cutting price projections, Goldman lowered its 2016 forecast for U.S. crude to $45 a barrel from $57 previously, and Brent to $49.50 from $62.
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4 K! W( \6 W6 C6 m"The oil market is even more oversupplied than we had expected and we forecast this surplus to persist in 2016," Goldman said in a note entitled "Lower for even longer".- \' `: I, F' j; ~, t) z$ ~
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Citing "operational stress" as a growing downside risk to its forecast, Goldman said crude could fall further to near $20 a barrel. "While not our base case, the potential for oil prices to fall to such levels ... is becoming greater as2 i" w3 H( ^. y+ K& `+ _
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storage continues to fill."4 @) a4 g' R& W c& U
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U.S. crude futures' front-month contract <CLc1> was down $1, or 2.2 percent, at $44.92 a barrel by 11:54 a.m. EDT.+ D2 c6 y) T- L7 p! o, i
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The front-month in Brent <LCOc1>, the global benchmark for oil, was off 70 cents, or 1.3 percent, at $48.19.
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5 t- ~' u7 ~4 @0 c6 l9 ]. \8 \Both crude benchmarks had fallen about 3 percent, before paring loses with stocks on Wall Street. The U.S. stocks have provided direction to oil over the last two weeks as investors grappled with mixed fundamentals for crude.; f. Y& V. a$ ]. b- v5 Z6 c# R
/ d4 x7 @6 x, m4 c* OThe oil market is waiting next for a weekly reading of the U.S. oil rig count, due at 1:00 p.m. ET. The data will show for whether oil producers were cutting back on drilling as prices head lower again after a brief rebound in the second quarter.
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: E! v# o; z; q/ J# M1 E1 XCrude prices have more than halved over the past year, with Brent tumbling from nearly $120 a barrel in the middle of 2014 to below $43 last month. Prices collapsed as a global glut of crude pushed commercial and government inventories to all-time highs. R: ?2 |$ f9 Z. Y1 A
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Analysts say the market is rebalancing, but high stocks will keep weighing on prices into next year.
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/ X3 m# b& l9 x3 R) h" xGermany's Commerzbank said Brent was likely to trade at $55 by the end of 2015, and around $65 by end-2016.
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0 `1 k# F/ |* D7 b% e( J! pInvestors shrugged off a report from the Paris-based International Energy Agency, which advises the world's biggest economies on energy policy. The IEA said a move by the world's big oil exporters in OPEC, led by Saudi Arabia, to defend their market share by not reducing production, appeared to be working.
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9 l# d7 M9 y$ F6 N/ @* O0 `(Additional reporting by Lisa Barrington and Christopher Johnson in London and Meeyoung Cho in Seoul; Editing by Nick Zieminski and David Gregorio) |
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