原帖由 WST 于 2007-6-15 21:45 发表 & t% S8 C" b. X/ k' }) b+ P: e
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同意dgg的观点, 对于affordability,我补充一下。Affordability 主要是以房价和收入比来衡量。通常,收入以税前的工资为标准。这种算法实际上比较片面,特别是对爱城,因为很多家庭的被动收入(房地产,股票 ...
& e( r8 k3 K( m+ F f( W9 SThis is a good explanation to how real estate bubble forms. The market feeds itself to push the prices up, but eventually it will reach turning point, and the bubble bursts.2 P3 T: b& ~: R9 q- N9 T) ~- } N
9 G- ^: j6 t" I/ v0 dThe risks to the current market:2 Z) n+ }& ^: y2 `0 \. l. {; Q
1) Mortgage rates go up ( O- y! U: n( @! P: ^8 N0 ~% N2) Oil price dropps4 k# H' p- k. q& C: O3 Q; V" }1 ]
3) Less influx ) i7 p& v: T4 y4) Speculators quit