原帖由 WST 于 2007-6-15 21:45 发表 7 w0 a# u2 H3 U9 O* _0 u( |
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同意dgg的观点, 对于affordability,我补充一下。Affordability 主要是以房价和收入比来衡量。通常,收入以税前的工资为标准。这种算法实际上比较片面,特别是对爱城,因为很多家庭的被动收入(房地产,股票 ...
! s3 i3 V, w0 k+ A7 c0 @. o' W$ F; sThis is a good explanation to how real estate bubble forms. The market feeds itself to push the prices up, but eventually it will reach turning point, and the bubble bursts. 9 M: i" n/ A8 E6 R 3 s1 O+ v: `' B1 ]( Z% p% CThe risks to the current market: ' v2 V6 Z, x! Y! f3 z1) Mortgage rates go up' V3 q1 I! [5 ~1 y
2) Oil price dropps5 N! P) q& v0 e+ P
3) Less influx + o+ Y+ I8 K5 z! Q' ?/ P2 w* h. a8 o4) Speculators quit