Long US

月满西楼

Well, I think it is the time to long the US.
( ^0 K  D, V- B8 kNow, there is so much pressure on Fed already from wallStreet.
If we think in the other way, now, US vs CAD is almost 1:1. How about long some US dollar and do the term deposits.
3 W' Z3 W% I# O* U* A3 eTD can give you 4.2%.
0 s7 G% V5 s% t7 L; XBMO can give you 4.3%.
RBC can give you 4.0%.
3 f2 d) N- @2 G(Roughly)
If the US will appreciate in the next yr, I think it can give you around 10%.
5 m) t$ E! s8 ~' W8 \Also, this strategy is suitable for someone who has some US in hand or some conservative investors.
2 n4 }# y- ]% `. s- i4 C5 AAlso, some of the investor might wait until Sep, 18th, 2007 because the Fed will announce the rates again.
0 h( r7 ]4 C5 I1 b) P* ?From the reality, the pressure is around 25bps to 50bps, but we are not sure yet.
Rough calculation:
Right now, US vs CAD: 1:1.03
: M8 F  V; {: K9 D8 |  u: o5 [+ rBuy 10000 US cost you 105000
Deposit 10000 US in one yr term deposit (one yr later): 104000
) i( N; ~$ ?: F0 `( m$ y! |If US appreciate to 1:1:10, you will have 114400 CAD.
If US depreciate to 1:0.90, you will have 93600 CAD.
# B, Z- t2 ]9 gI am not going to say which way you should go, that is the question you should arrive for yourself.
But, I am just saying another way to invest your money wisely.

7 S* g) H3 S. U7 ]All above are my own opinions, PLEASE consider the risk you can take and other factors because I am NOT going to be responsible for any losses may occur to you in the future. Thank you.

月满西楼

BTW, 5yrs Exchange Rates chart from Yahoo.
6 E2 E# e$ v  B  R% b

精打细算

好多人都在观望18日的利率。

小义子

原帖由 月满西楼 于 2007-9-16 11:59 发表
! Y- a2 S0 j1 G- c  v# T! v* oWell, I think it is the time to long the US.
9 y# C% X4 x5 u  j8 }, P, `Now, there is so much pressure on Fed already from wallStreet.
: o% ~1 }/ S, ^* iIf we think in the other way, now, US vs CAD is almost 1:1. How about long some US do ...

1 O3 E/ K$ ]6 S/ x# j3 w7 F这帐算得不对吧?

小义子

Buy 10000 US cost you 105000?

月满西楼

我个人觉得能再下来个25BPS。
& N* Y/ F' x  u: Z2个月左右，还有可能发行个SPECIAL FED BOND。
/ J7 w% Z, `. Q/ w  v# N如果这样做的话，美国欠的外债能占不少便宜。
而且政府已经仍了1400多个亿在FINANCIAL MARKET AND BANKS里了。
政府也会需要钱。但是会不会触动全球范围内的金融小风暴，那就不知道了。

月满西楼

原帖由 小义子 于 2007-9-16 21:22 发表
- O% e; R3 g6 S+ k3 w( SBuy 10000 US cost you 105000?

呵呵，多打了个0。
% m# O( L8 d. |
# a2 v, I- i; U% }多谢。
6 O$ r; W7 a2 Z' ?0 Y0 P% j
把其他的去掉个0就可以了。

精打细算

原帖由 月满西楼 于 2007-9-16 21:26 发表
& ^+ F# `2 P. i: O' ]- E我个人觉得能再下来个25BPS。
2个月左右，还有可能发行个SPECIAL FED BOND。
如果这样做的话，美国欠的外债能占不少便宜。
而且政府已经仍了1400多个亿在FINANCIAL MARKET AND BANKS里了。
政府也会需要钱。 ...

但愿如此。 美元今早强劲， 对英镑已经突破了2算回到19904。 如果下来25bps就应该不错。

2 D+ M* w) `& c& }- z现在美国经济面临通胀危机，原产品， 石油价格高涨， 要解决就必须提高利率。 同时国内也面对Subprime阴影， 楼市大跌， 破产人数增加， 要解决就得降息。  看来美国中央银行不易为啊。

月满西楼

今天北美时间星期1， 上海突破5400点。不知道美国如果想？
还有一天就宣布RATES了。不知道政府是真的想挽救那些中小型企业还是想真的来一次大调整。
2 y+ d2 K3 F3 h+ [" V& F如果来次调整的话，估计WRITE-OFF就会是个天文数字了。
你说美国政府会不会调整，如果下25BPS的话，会有很多被人家BUY-OUT的机会。
4 W1 ^6 f/ j6 l如果我是中国政府的话，我会趁机买一些美国金融机构的股份，从而加大一些“间接”控制美国经济的POWER或砝码。

月满西楼

Symbol U.S. Dollar Exchange
4 u1 \* v3 r! aRate Canadian Dollar Bid Ask
USDCAD=X 1 Sep 17 1.0260 1.0260 1.0260 1.0264

如花

If you want to convert CAD to USD and do term deposit, you will not benefit from that, because the "interest rate parity"
" z! w' }6 q4 B# q% Y3 o
( [+ c3 _' r7 v& r( x2 m[ 本帖最后由 如花 于 2007-9-18 08:34 编辑 ]