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Single Family info update Oct 1-10

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鲜花(1) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2007-10-16 15:13 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Edmonton Single Family Home 6 D, b! p- r. ?3 H' O# E
MLS Statistics(Unofficial)
' U$ U' W  P) {. p6 `# z, W1 s! dIncludes Edmonton, St Albert, Sherwood Park, Spruce Grove, Stony Plain1 I9 s: m& v& N2 U
Note: These areas do not coincide with the criteria used by the Edmonton Real Estate Board' k5 B8 _5 e1 _$ R* v) N, U

# l6 @" r3 U5 _/ a3 iDate      Inventory  New Listings Added  Sales  30-Day Avg Price 30-Day Median Price SP/SF DOM Sales/NewListing Ratio  
8 K( D$ ?1 e& y) \7 r  @+ f   z- P! ~; X( M" l$ u
Oct 1-10 4879 678 185 429,254 394,000 295 40 27%
& R3 p+ i* K4 T; s 4 ?8 C7 U; P/ K% I2 P; \0 ], R0 K
Sep 2007 5030 2214 515 426,984 390,000 303 41 23%
+ B7 ^: k- m6 z
1 ^- @' k2 {( n9 v9 EAug 2007 4656 2108 635 429,889 395,000 314 36 30%
, h/ j) G/ {+ k 9 G, P- H# C( K( q) {
Jul 2007% M7 M: w1 @1 A, {/ T6 H8 c
NA, k. a  l) X  o  u# k+ }7 }# z8 u
23282 }7 f8 p9 z$ q0 p- W& ?- S0 `$ c& C
717
5 |+ S# e: n* I 442,7523 N$ c: X$ b7 E9 g  P4 w. {! J, C* i
410,000
* A6 N& m8 `" @1 I; f* a 3200 x9 ?* ]+ t- e; M: x- v' Q0 S
28
) }/ K* e  [% U! Y5 l 31%' m( C' N& y; U' a3 Q9 \

$ d# r7 v6 W, a5 I3 K5 ?# v+ [Jun 20079 m& h  x- |5 u
NA0 x4 [3 M5 F, d9 o  c" `
2661# O  A' P# O1 x
10117 ^$ o( b% u; K) n
442,817
5 d2 p4 ]' U4 z 409,000
* R9 T, N+ X% H3 C9 I/ W 328
% ]' V3 O1 M4 b# D0 ?' X/ U( b5 @ 22% B! x0 c) u/ T% A
38%
4 T% Z$ d" u4 ?& N/ z4 T. S4 `( ]
7 T: d6 c- }2 J4 J: \5 K# j, hMay 2007
  {& C8 \! N+ b" j$ O NA
' h" x9 p% S7 M  A7 b. W0 s8 J 22885 v! v& Y0 N9 _( r8 t" @# q
1261
3 I2 @) u! s. l7 E: ~$ h/ U 451,2168 I7 M5 B9 Q. B) t5 i6 @
415,000; U* X6 m  p/ q& k8 V- @
3220 N: Z! `. j! V) `
19
7 b2 p3 V3 X: M0 `* B 55%
鲜花(4348) 鸡蛋(18)
发表于 2007-10-16 21:03 | 显示全部楼层
存货降151, AVG.PRICE涨0.53%4 @8 a" S. y. h$ V9 D% ?
鉴定完毕!
鲜花(27) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2007-10-16 21:25 | 显示全部楼层
看来,存货似已见顶。# S5 j! y9 @: h4 ]8 C, V/ u5 D" Y
这几天,在街上又见现金收购房子的广告。
鲜花(49) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2007-10-16 22:45 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
鲜花(0) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2007-10-17 00:22 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 紫光 于 2007-10-16 22:03 发表
) W  u. c9 |; M9 ~( i存货降151, AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
' b4 ~3 h: ]( A& C+ M鉴定完毕!
% W0 ?; [/ c- M) I3 \5 d9 `

1 r" n4 U/ m2 T& n2 d. o2 l用十天的数据来和30天的比较,鉴定结果可靠吗?
Z
鲜花(0) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2007-10-17 06:36 | 显示全部楼层
1)房价持续下跌,每尺从303跌到295。! z! H  q2 P4 t5 l0 r5 ~& \
2)成交房里大房子比重上升,使得每尺单价下跌但总的中位价上升。6 {6 h" C6 W$ ]1 L$ A
3)存量惊人。每年秋冬,存量都会锐减。但现在是持平。考虑到季节因素,存量其实是增加了。
Z
鲜花(0) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2007-10-17 06:42 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
原帖由 紫光 于 2007-10-16 22:03 发表
6 ?9 g! G" [2 @; H6 y存货降151, AVG.PRICE涨0.53%$ D4 e8 o+ ~) U
鉴定完毕!

: ?5 @$ `! g0 ~1 j6 S: ^$ N) k4 r9 ]. [
呵呵,太不专业了吧。) Z+ Q% k9 t9 l! T  k* C+ y! e) ?

% @7 w% c/ Z. U) y, C新存量 = 旧存量 + 新列量 - 新销量 - 下市量; g& D: d6 C" Y% C9 J  p

# g' V8 y9 Z0 o- A3 E( t就是说, 存量变化 = 新存量 - 旧存量 = 新列量 - 新销量 - 下市量 = 678 -185 - 下市量6 L- [+ w/ }8 Y2 X% m5 T

8 @7 ~2 l) `8 g# W' p" r3 A这里面我们没有下市量的数据。你简单的回避新增的678和未知的下市量,你的算法也太粗糙了。
鲜花(1) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2007-10-17 07:21 | 显示全部楼层
Don't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.
鲜花(0) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2007-10-17 08:01 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 08:21 发表 ) H$ C9 u0 ^: |/ J& F5 o" \
Don't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

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鲜花(4348) 鸡蛋(18)
发表于 2007-10-17 08:04 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 08:21 发表 1 V4 O$ p9 h# v! o
Don't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.
/ t- d) Y! i# U& ~# Y, W
鲜花(1) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2007-10-17 09:09 | 显示全部楼层
In average sale 3000 per month, but last 6 months, the sales between 1000 to 2000.
$ a( ]' @* w, PIs the mean there are other 6000 potential buyers there?# g9 S9 l7 g* H
How about all these potential buyers start taking their action?
9 s5 c+ o' I( [5 u  B) HThat is what i say half full or half empty.2 n7 k& V8 I! f8 _( j# p
good luck for people seeking their house.
鲜花(17) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2007-10-17 09:23 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 10:09 发表 ) {. g* Z/ [! t9 A* w& w
In average sale 3000 per month, but last 6 months, the sales between 1000 to 2000.; I1 l8 t- b, U7 H+ }% f0 h- ?
Is the mean there are other 6000 potential buyers there?) O7 z/ T2 K- i/ [# {. U# B# r- c
How about all these potential buyers start taking the ...

9 s$ W# u2 s8 B8 T! H
9 _' i# f" d$ kI think a lot of investors and speculators are quitting from the market, it is too hard for them to make money. Instead, they are dumping their houses now to make a profit.
鲜花(27) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2007-10-17 12:10 | 显示全部楼层
同言同羽 置业良晨
原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-16 16:13 发表 4 e  t5 @7 ]! [, ~, _# f
Edmonton Single Family Home 6 p1 c2 R7 d" e" K
MLS Statistics(Unofficial) # F0 M0 S. U: ]( ?! J7 u6 y
Includes Edmonton, St Albert, Sherwood Park, Spruce Grove, Stony Plain$ }* K9 `4 z7 M+ D
Note: These areas do not coincide with the criteria used by the  ...
" P8 J2 j) Y6 i$ d) [
QWE321: 这些数据来源于何处?是否可靠?又无网站连接?
鲜花(1) 鸡蛋(0)
 楼主| 发表于 2007-10-17 12:32 | 显示全部楼层
鲜花(3) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2007-10-17 12:34 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 水管工 于 2007-10-17 10:23 发表 9 z) B: i  ?. N6 K$ L1 j3 @

' ?- t# u6 ]8 W+ {: k1 {4 r2 v& i8 C8 C1 w1 z/ P1 F; G
I think a lot of investors and speculators are quitting from the market, it is too hard for them to make money. Instead, they are dumping their houses now to make a profit.
" C, g7 i- F; t( J! `* Y: {
鲜花(27) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2007-10-17 15:46 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 Z 于 2007-10-17 07:36 发表 6 r! y# P$ L7 F" K, C$ R# }6 L2 S, J
1)房价持续下跌,每尺从303跌到295。9 \; L8 S1 g3 O: d" ?: P
2)成交房里大房子比重上升,使得每尺单价下跌但总的中位价上升。
) [3 c) B$ B1 G& U+ |- k' I$ _3)存量惊人。每年秋冬,存量都会锐减。但现在是持平。考虑到季节因素,存量其实是增加了。
3 L4 R# M+ s* m( u, u% F% n
) u+ u' M, p; b' D( v, u4 g: A
下半年,存量通常会持续增加,以卡城为例,参考下图:" F/ a7 b2 a6 [4 r9 b8 [

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只有去年例外,存量在年末锐减。
鲜花(27) 鸡蛋(0)
发表于 2007-10-17 16:09 | 显示全部楼层

回复 #16 WST 的帖子

同言同羽 置业良晨
上图为days inventory 和 总存量有不同。总存量在年末的确大减。
5 C/ ~- l+ j! C9 M看来,观察days inventory 更重要。
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