Single Family info update Oct 1-10

QWE321

Edmonton Single Family Home
" ~- n# y) A  NMLS Statistics(Unofficial)
0 g/ H5 ~' Z" e- }Includes Edmonton, St Albert, Sherwood Park, Spruce Grove, Stony Plain
1 h7 H1 |" t4 E* m* S: m4 zNote: These areas do not coincide with the criteria used by the Edmonton Real Estate Board

Date      Inventory  New Listings Added  Sales  30-Day Avg Price 30-Day Median Price SP/SF DOM Sales/NewListing Ratio  
9 H  @( w- t5 Y% Y
* [5 u% B( X' P2 `$ ~Oct 1-10 4879 678 185 429,254 394,000 295 40 27%

Sep 2007 5030 2214 515 426,984 390,000 303 41 23%
; v* ]9 E0 Q' A7 H4 Y
# G- S, Q0 H4 X! \4 d3 \Aug 2007 4656 2108 635 429,889 395,000 314 36 30%
  O* G( r( e# g4 f+ O
Jul 2007
) J, W3 Y0 {5 }2 H8 J" x NA
2328
. L9 m# A) F; D! ~2 D. \$ M 717
, c) N- r; U4 _9 I# z! t 442,752
410,000
320
+ O; T. _' M5 W6 i 28
31%
5 Y5 N4 Z( ^$ P
Jun 2007
NA
2661
1011
9 g: x0 _/ t" K/ H: I- t 442,817
( I& ^- U, x/ h& P9 K% O 409,000
+ A0 w3 O8 x# _# Y 328
9 h! |, x, Z# u9 a2 `: ^6 Q 22
38%
1 D: H5 S# C* R
" Y7 u, R$ ~0 B- R5 z: OMay 2007
NA
2288
1261
451,216
4 u* c0 D6 M2 L1 j 415,000
322
19
2 D  s- Z9 C1 S# W& ~ 55%

紫光

存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
* [% y3 N% z6 x, {6 C) D* g3 U* A鉴定完毕！

WST

看来，存货似已见顶。
# [% x) F! `0 {  h( z$ }* q% y这几天，在街上又见现金收购房子的广告。

yj151

景之白干

原帖由 紫光 于 2007-10-16 22:03 发表
& L( H$ E  g# b, o3 }7 ~& P' Y存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
鉴定完毕！

用十天的数据来和30天的比较，鉴定结果可靠吗？

Z

1）房价持续下跌，每尺从303跌到295。
2）成交房里大房子比重上升，使得每尺单价下跌但总的中位价上升。
3）存量惊人。每年秋冬，存量都会锐减。但现在是持平。考虑到季节因素，存量其实是增加了。

Z

原帖由 紫光 于 2007-10-16 22:03 发表
" |3 Y; r6 Q: u7 X4 ^存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
& ]! \# [+ p/ z3 Z" m鉴定完毕！

0 _5 i, f/ i1 o0 a
9 |$ F' K% C/ t; }$ F呵呵，太不专业了吧。
6 {1 h0 e1 w9 V% O
$ v$ E8 z' J& C新存量 = 旧存量 + 新列量 - 新销量 - 下市量
" O) e6 R( c3 x3 r( Q4 C
) B: m! S3 ~% Q就是说， 存量变化 = 新存量 - 旧存量 = 新列量 - 新销量 - 下市量 = 678 -185 - 下市量
7 W% K' L7 a) [$ T5 D/ w
5 R( Y1 p# W5 L$ O1 E0 ?  ]这里面我们没有下市量的数据。你简单的回避新增的678和未知的下市量，你的算法也太粗糙了。

QWE321

Don't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

judyzh

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 08:21 发表
Don't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

( J. b4 Y- r% Q9 _' ~
% P5 j  N- e: r, B  Q

紫光

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 08:21 发表
Don't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

9 n) Y% A+ ?9 n, |+ ?, k

QWE321

In average sale 3000 per month, but last 6 months, the sales between 1000 to 2000.
  K1 o9 ?, U2 ]  m( [Is the mean there are other 6000 potential buyers there?
3 }  Z' M) q, o$ ]! H2 {- cHow about all these potential buyers start taking their action?
That is what i say half full or half empty.
9 U$ P% J$ ]: I& a; j) V5 ?good luck for people seeking their house.

水管工

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 10:09 发表
0 n  `' u9 Y: P) @" TIn average sale 3000 per month, but last 6 months, the sales between 1000 to 2000.
Is the mean there are other 6000 potential buyers there?
5 h: U" q5 a/ h! M# r( JHow about all these potential buyers start taking the ...

3 w: C! i* }3 ]# n
I think a lot of investors and speculators are quitting from the market, it is too hard for them to make money. Instead, they are dumping their houses now to make a profit.

WST

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-16 16:13 发表
& s+ m( D1 Z5 x) pEdmonton Single Family Home
MLS Statistics(Unofficial)
Includes Edmonton, St Albert, Sherwood Park, Spruce Grove, Stony Plain
" m! W* M; T* S7 ]Note: These areas do not coincide with the criteria used by the  ...

QWE321:　这些数据来源于何处？是否可靠？又无网站连接?

QWE321

http://www.bobtruman.com/Edmonton_SFH_stats/page_1918017.html

小曲

原帖由 水管工 于 2007-10-17 10:23 发表

+ o1 w$ X) T! [
  T. l. K$ f! Z: R; o  g/ rI think a lot of investors and speculators are quitting from the market, it is too hard for them to make money. Instead, they are dumping their houses now to make a profit.

WST

原帖由 Z 于 2007-10-17 07:36 发表
1）房价持续下跌，每尺从303跌到295。
- ^9 P8 b) G) H8 S, a2 P2）成交房里大房子比重上升，使得每尺单价下跌但总的中位价上升。
3）存量惊人。每年秋冬，存量都会锐减。但现在是持平。考虑到季节因素，存量其实是增加了。

1 }7 r- h% u8 K& Y# q" k. D
1 O/ H4 O9 W: i2 ?) R- F9 Q8 |1 V$ J下半年，存量通常会持续增加，以卡城为例，参考下图：
! V0 C1 X8 d* `, n
0 t" b- z- y* K1 k' Q) z
+ O0 _4 x+ w& T
$ I+ n5 ~# N: ]7 F) p+ d" z4 Z只有去年例外，存量在年末锐减。

WST

上图为days inventory 和 总存量有不同。总存量在年末的确大减。
. z. r- m+ h' N+ [  O看来，观察days inventory 更重要。