Single Family info update Oct 1-10

QWE321

Edmonton Single Family Home
, B% m# j) H# W! N) nMLS Statistics(Unofficial)
- s" G* Z" t# N) ~, ~9 j8 h6 rIncludes Edmonton, St Albert, Sherwood Park, Spruce Grove, Stony Plain
Note: These areas do not coincide with the criteria used by the Edmonton Real Estate Board
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4 t* z- ]6 u1 }* JDate      Inventory  New Listings Added  Sales  30-Day Avg Price 30-Day Median Price SP/SF DOM Sales/NewListing Ratio  
5 F' O$ H" J  t4 a, D
& w2 u% s: k6 R6 i- O, iOct 1-10 4879 678 185 429,254 394,000 295 40 27%

9 o, S) b% g5 h6 s& P$ j# _Sep 2007 5030 2214 515 426,984 390,000 303 41 23%
( H7 `1 h& y7 A2 t$ R: [
Aug 2007 4656 2108 635 429,889 395,000 314 36 30%

" ~) r/ x& w) m% ^Jul 2007
* @; N+ a2 L  c, I' z NA
5 Q; B9 v: I; a1 Z5 h! t+ Z0 ? 2328
1 W6 \7 p; T6 r- z+ p 717
442,752
) h+ _/ s$ ]: v0 z) v 410,000
) C! i! p4 _# P/ T) |) h 320
& w7 X# g' o8 Z. \% B 28
31%

Jun 2007
3 M+ j8 \) G+ B7 \1 T8 j NA
  f2 |. v3 E' V 2661
3 s. C8 |% x' p0 Y6 f: v) u  v 1011
' Y6 I3 h& V% s3 r1 Z 442,817
409,000
328
22
38%
9 a! w, S( k3 P" f2 l- W% s
May 2007
NA
2288
% L" y9 K4 y: V 1261
: ]0 e) h) s1 x7 y5 n8 W4 w( R; X 451,216
415,000
9 B8 ?' c) z, @, R4 j 322
19
: k- M3 g: @0 m: [2 x5 {3 g 55%

紫光

存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
鉴定完毕！

WST

看来，存货似已见顶。
这几天，在街上又见现金收购房子的广告。

yj151

景之白干

原帖由 紫光 于 2007-10-16 22:03 发表
存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
. ], t: g! T, j+ D5 J, q6 [鉴定完毕！

' c( I& z# x7 N8 M4 K( d3 H* ]
用十天的数据来和30天的比较，鉴定结果可靠吗？

Z

1）房价持续下跌，每尺从303跌到295。
1 Y  t' z+ q' |' O2）成交房里大房子比重上升，使得每尺单价下跌但总的中位价上升。
% K' ?$ g, u, L, v0 a" j& F/ F3）存量惊人。每年秋冬，存量都会锐减。但现在是持平。考虑到季节因素，存量其实是增加了。

Z

原帖由 紫光 于 2007-10-16 22:03 发表
存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
7 ]4 V/ G# i. R, e6 u  ?. Y$ K鉴定完毕！

: n+ s, N# E2 i% R9 y( M5 N; j
5 o6 K4 I3 O! U9 q+ B" U$ X8 z2 q" U呵呵，太不专业了吧。
4 k* G: W0 ]3 l: Y! W
新存量 = 旧存量 + 新列量 - 新销量 - 下市量

- [8 V8 m9 H& y/ D% `# T就是说， 存量变化 = 新存量 - 旧存量 = 新列量 - 新销量 - 下市量 = 678 -185 - 下市量

这里面我们没有下市量的数据。你简单的回避新增的678和未知的下市量，你的算法也太粗糙了。

QWE321

Don't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

judyzh

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 08:21 发表
Don't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

  @; Z: R$ ?0 {! A4 b+ T
8 }  |' H' K8 ?! ^

紫光

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 08:21 发表
2 g( u/ z* L0 Z& O& ?+ |Don't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

' N: j4 L: C. C6 u# W

QWE321

In average sale 3000 per month, but last 6 months, the sales between 1000 to 2000.
( d1 i$ }4 g& D$ B5 gIs the mean there are other 6000 potential buyers there?
& k7 W, \8 z1 C" g5 T% P1 s+ OHow about all these potential buyers start taking their action?
9 ^: v/ c+ ^2 }: p/ B. A! z. XThat is what i say half full or half empty.
2 a  q3 \0 d0 W6 l3 h% I2 tgood luck for people seeking their house.

水管工

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 10:09 发表
9 F' ?) u  ~) E8 CIn average sale 3000 per month, but last 6 months, the sales between 1000 to 2000.
9 F. Q$ L9 v" m# z, Q& E: ?/ h( P) FIs the mean there are other 6000 potential buyers there?
How about all these potential buyers start taking the ...

7 m: Z- U$ [. ^8 X, ?+ gI think a lot of investors and speculators are quitting from the market, it is too hard for them to make money. Instead, they are dumping their houses now to make a profit.

WST

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-16 16:13 发表
Edmonton Single Family Home
. E- C. a8 N6 p8 |8 a' k4 `MLS Statistics(Unofficial)
" @4 `8 z, g: Y. y- I$ V* r1 D. ^Includes Edmonton, St Albert, Sherwood Park, Spruce Grove, Stony Plain
3 J1 D& ^$ L# {+ l: ~/ G5 VNote: These areas do not coincide with the criteria used by the  ...

QWE321:　这些数据来源于何处？是否可靠？又无网站连接?

QWE321

http://www.bobtruman.com/Edmonton_SFH_stats/page_1918017.html

小曲

原帖由 水管工 于 2007-10-17 10:23 发表
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7 k9 B/ W0 A. _) ~: [I think a lot of investors and speculators are quitting from the market, it is too hard for them to make money. Instead, they are dumping their houses now to make a profit.

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WST

原帖由 Z 于 2007-10-17 07:36 发表
1）房价持续下跌，每尺从303跌到295。
2）成交房里大房子比重上升，使得每尺单价下跌但总的中位价上升。
3）存量惊人。每年秋冬，存量都会锐减。但现在是持平。考虑到季节因素，存量其实是增加了。

: [/ j0 h0 h* `/ [& ?1 Y, j# F* p% W下半年，存量通常会持续增加，以卡城为例，参考下图：


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只有去年例外，存量在年末锐减。

WST

上图为days inventory 和 总存量有不同。总存量在年末的确大减。
% g  ~, R3 [2 t' N2 o7 p看来，观察days inventory 更重要。