Single Family info update Oct 1-10

QWE321

Edmonton Single Family Home
) b- }5 `, I- f! D% @MLS Statistics(Unofficial)
8 u3 Y/ T5 L; g1 C1 {Includes Edmonton, St Albert, Sherwood Park, Spruce Grove, Stony Plain
6 ~4 s" N+ w9 U. A  h$ o8 HNote: These areas do not coincide with the criteria used by the Edmonton Real Estate Board
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: |7 \; F, g( D0 fDate      Inventory  New Listings Added  Sales  30-Day Avg Price 30-Day Median Price SP/SF DOM Sales/NewListing Ratio  
& i& S* k4 ~+ i# |
Oct 1-10 4879 678 185 429,254 394,000 295 40 27%
8 x9 N/ w; \4 |" W
Sep 2007 5030 2214 515 426,984 390,000 303 41 23%
7 w4 t& ^$ W, W% p
Aug 2007 4656 2108 635 429,889 395,000 314 36 30%

Jul 2007
NA
: ~, f1 p& |6 z3 f, U1 O 2328
717
442,752
) R8 V  y% ?8 O" o4 a, z+ G# R! J$ r2 y' K 410,000
+ C/ q8 Z9 d- H* r: h3 Q 320
$ B3 e% H9 G0 B6 }1 L; Y8 I- `+ j 28
31%

+ l, y! x; d: `+ ]! \0 s  J6 Z9 |Jun 2007
% P4 D: D  G% Q1 l. n4 q! u$ y' K NA
2661
1011
5 V$ F, |5 y" ~3 A 442,817
409,000
328
22
38%
/ K( A7 _) g. b- R. m
May 2007
( K$ H, J: _* c. _' ~# i4 V/ T NA
2288
1261
451,216
6 k* U# c' [$ ~% e5 U 415,000
322
. `+ E& U" ?1 N0 I" i 19
55%

紫光

存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
8 V3 f9 s7 @+ E8 m鉴定完毕！

WST

看来，存货似已见顶。
这几天，在街上又见现金收购房子的广告。

yj151

景之白干

原帖由 紫光 于 2007-10-16 22:03 发表
1 B3 u0 n% Z/ t0 `# \3 m% K6 A0 I& S存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
+ n) H3 }2 N1 m1 N& j1 j+ k/ {* Y" I鉴定完毕！

用十天的数据来和30天的比较，鉴定结果可靠吗？

Z

1）房价持续下跌，每尺从303跌到295。
2）成交房里大房子比重上升，使得每尺单价下跌但总的中位价上升。
3）存量惊人。每年秋冬，存量都会锐减。但现在是持平。考虑到季节因素，存量其实是增加了。

Z

原帖由 紫光 于 2007-10-16 22:03 发表
- h% m" }' q. x- D存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
鉴定完毕！

呵呵，太不专业了吧。

2 ~& `9 _5 R( p2 f$ |& U. H新存量 = 旧存量 + 新列量 - 新销量 - 下市量

就是说， 存量变化 = 新存量 - 旧存量 = 新列量 - 新销量 - 下市量 = 678 -185 - 下市量

这里面我们没有下市量的数据。你简单的回避新增的678和未知的下市量，你的算法也太粗糙了。

QWE321

Don't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

judyzh

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 08:21 发表
Don't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

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+ @7 t* h2 u. f' ^) Y, y

紫光

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 08:21 发表
Don't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

QWE321

In average sale 3000 per month, but last 6 months, the sales between 1000 to 2000.
& q  N3 X  Z! E+ EIs the mean there are other 6000 potential buyers there?
How about all these potential buyers start taking their action?
- P  v0 V, R$ `. @5 R1 r* g. KThat is what i say half full or half empty.
good luck for people seeking their house.

水管工

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 10:09 发表
+ J" [0 c! @! J7 J! EIn average sale 3000 per month, but last 6 months, the sales between 1000 to 2000.
Is the mean there are other 6000 potential buyers there?
! j! p: w+ ~0 c6 G( GHow about all these potential buyers start taking the ...

) F( {5 [" Y$ J; _
I think a lot of investors and speculators are quitting from the market, it is too hard for them to make money. Instead, they are dumping their houses now to make a profit.

WST

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-16 16:13 发表
Edmonton Single Family Home
' c; R: l2 V2 {7 Q; G6 LMLS Statistics(Unofficial)
Includes Edmonton, St Albert, Sherwood Park, Spruce Grove, Stony Plain
Note: These areas do not coincide with the criteria used by the  ...

1 T9 N( ]: J4 |+ X$ |1 v6 ?! ]( hQWE321:　这些数据来源于何处？是否可靠？又无网站连接?

QWE321

http://www.bobtruman.com/Edmonton_SFH_stats/page_1918017.html

小曲

原帖由 水管工 于 2007-10-17 10:23 发表


I think a lot of investors and speculators are quitting from the market, it is too hard for them to make money. Instead, they are dumping their houses now to make a profit.

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WST

原帖由 Z 于 2007-10-17 07:36 发表
1）房价持续下跌，每尺从303跌到295。
& |. C. ?- q: V4 |1 Q2）成交房里大房子比重上升，使得每尺单价下跌但总的中位价上升。
3）存量惊人。每年秋冬，存量都会锐减。但现在是持平。考虑到季节因素，存量其实是增加了。

: s3 s7 X6 g: Y$ O9 W4 z
下半年，存量通常会持续增加，以卡城为例，参考下图：
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只有去年例外，存量在年末锐减。

WST

上图为days inventory 和 总存量有不同。总存量在年末的确大减。
看来，观察days inventory 更重要。