Single Family info update Oct 1-10

QWE321

Edmonton Single Family Home
6 d+ t. ?( n! P0 qMLS Statistics(Unofficial)
Includes Edmonton, St Albert, Sherwood Park, Spruce Grove, Stony Plain
Note: These areas do not coincide with the criteria used by the Edmonton Real Estate Board

0 Z: x/ P3 s& l" ZDate      Inventory  New Listings Added  Sales  30-Day Avg Price 30-Day Median Price SP/SF DOM Sales/NewListing Ratio  
7 D( s, ]; f  N
! V  M- |1 J4 _Oct 1-10 4879 678 185 429,254 394,000 295 40 27%

' [" `8 X& n: aSep 2007 5030 2214 515 426,984 390,000 303 41 23%
! n2 B' Q2 z* {2 V/ M
Aug 2007 4656 2108 635 429,889 395,000 314 36 30%

2 I0 {* a; C/ G+ hJul 2007
: h. m- \. A* [" ^5 V" k NA
2328
3 G0 ?& Z$ `& B 717
9 b& L& e# z0 [% j 442,752
410,000
320
2 e$ ^3 v8 c9 }# @6 i3 y+ J- }) | 28
  B4 u4 C  ^6 E6 `7 T9 y6 i 31%
( u' X7 M9 k7 O& j$ i
Jun 2007
NA
2661
1011
442,817
409,000
! n: }- I- [+ m 328
22
38%
* b4 z, _) u3 l3 f' i
May 2007
: e0 e* o3 d0 u$ G. F) A NA
2288
" X( e4 y5 `6 L, o/ a 1261
451,216
/ N" J  _8 X% @" V8 j2 h& o) b+ B 415,000
+ a& j1 R$ D; X$ k8 `4 ~$ O 322
19
55%

紫光

存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
鉴定完毕！

WST

看来，存货似已见顶。
这几天，在街上又见现金收购房子的广告。

yj151

景之白干

原帖由 紫光 于 2007-10-16 22:03 发表
存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
鉴定完毕！

5 D* Z$ N& l2 @! _1 a. R5 j3 r用十天的数据来和30天的比较，鉴定结果可靠吗？

Z

1）房价持续下跌，每尺从303跌到295。
, ?7 f/ s6 d( e, P2）成交房里大房子比重上升，使得每尺单价下跌但总的中位价上升。
! l0 L( g; t1 D8 [6 U3）存量惊人。每年秋冬，存量都会锐减。但现在是持平。考虑到季节因素，存量其实是增加了。

Z

原帖由 紫光 于 2007-10-16 22:03 发表
2 B9 }9 @6 w$ ~8 W) n# A9 b! c( i, c存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
0 h, o6 P& x6 Q% n1 ?9 [0 k+ X鉴定完毕！

2 B6 K% e/ e9 O4 e7 [
' M# ]( w( A) @6 _$ u呵呵，太不专业了吧。

# e1 \( j8 {, J) k新存量 = 旧存量 + 新列量 - 新销量 - 下市量
7 C3 M6 f- z+ P, Z
就是说， 存量变化 = 新存量 - 旧存量 = 新列量 - 新销量 - 下市量 = 678 -185 - 下市量
- |4 V/ e2 U" Z% C: z: i1 C8 |5 }
% r( z7 W$ j# W) m. j( }这里面我们没有下市量的数据。你简单的回避新增的678和未知的下市量，你的算法也太粗糙了。

QWE321

Don't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

judyzh

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 08:21 发表
Don't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

, i! B' I% J* B/ ]' F/ w

紫光

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 08:21 发表
Don't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

5 `! \) q( d# X9 y

QWE321

In average sale 3000 per month, but last 6 months, the sales between 1000 to 2000.
Is the mean there are other 6000 potential buyers there?
How about all these potential buyers start taking their action?
. n; U0 `1 a, T+ `3 b( zThat is what i say half full or half empty.
good luck for people seeking their house.

水管工

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 10:09 发表
In average sale 3000 per month, but last 6 months, the sales between 1000 to 2000.
% [7 j+ {- s- c) F# r* EIs the mean there are other 6000 potential buyers there?
$ [2 h/ O" {3 ^, CHow about all these potential buyers start taking the ...

I think a lot of investors and speculators are quitting from the market, it is too hard for them to make money. Instead, they are dumping their houses now to make a profit.

WST

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-16 16:13 发表
Edmonton Single Family Home
MLS Statistics(Unofficial)
' p8 Q- a! Q) _+ c5 v+ ZIncludes Edmonton, St Albert, Sherwood Park, Spruce Grove, Stony Plain
Note: These areas do not coincide with the criteria used by the  ...

QWE321:　这些数据来源于何处？是否可靠？又无网站连接?

QWE321

http://www.bobtruman.com/Edmonton_SFH_stats/page_1918017.html

小曲

原帖由 水管工 于 2007-10-17 10:23 发表
# R  f+ Q- x/ k8 D* D' j
4 z+ ~. a& \4 w
, L% K7 t; x% x0 ~7 B- B) UI think a lot of investors and speculators are quitting from the market, it is too hard for them to make money. Instead, they are dumping their houses now to make a profit.

WST

原帖由 Z 于 2007-10-17 07:36 发表
1）房价持续下跌，每尺从303跌到295。
+ A" Q+ h/ g1 [5 Z2）成交房里大房子比重上升，使得每尺单价下跌但总的中位价上升。
4 G# \  B% Q+ J) Q3）存量惊人。每年秋冬，存量都会锐减。但现在是持平。考虑到季节因素，存量其实是增加了。

下半年，存量通常会持续增加，以卡城为例，参考下图：

1 s$ @2 p! m3 Z$ S  r  V3 n' l8 p
0 S5 Q# q( r4 J* l$ ^) U! w
只有去年例外，存量在年末锐减。

WST

上图为days inventory 和 总存量有不同。总存量在年末的确大减。
$ L! g" e9 E$ R! i% n' ?: F7 D看来，观察days inventory 更重要。