Single Family info update Oct 1-10

QWE321

Edmonton Single Family Home
0 Z" R0 v' m4 Z! ]MLS Statistics(Unofficial)
) K' j; L0 {: i% e  i3 ^6 yIncludes Edmonton, St Albert, Sherwood Park, Spruce Grove, Stony Plain
6 ^: r4 P* e6 d. `9 I( m/ INote: These areas do not coincide with the criteria used by the Edmonton Real Estate Board

Date      Inventory  New Listings Added  Sales  30-Day Avg Price 30-Day Median Price SP/SF DOM Sales/NewListing Ratio  
) Y1 V: ^1 i- O4 ^/ a# L* G
Oct 1-10 4879 678 185 429,254 394,000 295 40 27%

# {0 Y* G# C4 g$ `& C1 jSep 2007 5030 2214 515 426,984 390,000 303 41 23%

- p0 R8 B- \. LAug 2007 4656 2108 635 429,889 395,000 314 36 30%

Jul 2007
NA
2328
717
442,752
: r4 a+ W4 f/ Q* @9 \+ L 410,000
320
7 g$ q; ]1 z' A4 l5 M; y 28
31%

% ]3 T, C3 A* x0 a- e/ ^! i0 \1 L! xJun 2007
' o3 J! }" f2 ~% n3 p8 e NA
2661
. K% s* Q4 X& h 1011
442,817
. U& r) u( p. D3 }8 R0 i. V3 E 409,000
; A4 v+ A* b; v( ^# V; ^* {( ^ 328
4 e3 c# t* k- x 22
38%
1 F7 n) X7 f- g+ R5 F7 N
6 \' ^; K, b: }/ L$ A/ rMay 2007
+ W# k6 a; |3 i" i NA
2288
1261
451,216
415,000
322
19
8 |6 C: l, @: [. @+ ] 55%

紫光

存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
; \  {7 q( m7 m# B$ V" f( I- K5 s- |鉴定完毕！

WST

看来，存货似已见顶。
+ F: m8 w& O6 S$ t+ e1 Y# A这几天，在街上又见现金收购房子的广告。

yj151

景之白干

原帖由 紫光 于 2007-10-16 22:03 发表
2 g- c8 K& A4 n9 S2 R% X存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
+ I2 r; \% @$ J* O3 H鉴定完毕！

8 b# M5 x7 q+ L& B: G$ ~! O% |% g& I
4 D# m0 f7 W: x, F! c% I. t- A' H8 j用十天的数据来和30天的比较，鉴定结果可靠吗？

Z

1）房价持续下跌，每尺从303跌到295。
2）成交房里大房子比重上升，使得每尺单价下跌但总的中位价上升。
3）存量惊人。每年秋冬，存量都会锐减。但现在是持平。考虑到季节因素，存量其实是增加了。

Z

原帖由 紫光 于 2007-10-16 22:03 发表
! w3 \' p  G+ T' y存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
5 s$ d4 p0 J$ c. `" W鉴定完毕！

呵呵，太不专业了吧。

. X. B' \. {# K4 V/ n新存量 = 旧存量 + 新列量 - 新销量 - 下市量

* y0 M7 _& m( ~- I# e就是说， 存量变化 = 新存量 - 旧存量 = 新列量 - 新销量 - 下市量 = 678 -185 - 下市量
6 I1 a5 d; u* z" K
这里面我们没有下市量的数据。你简单的回避新增的678和未知的下市量，你的算法也太粗糙了。

QWE321

Don't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

judyzh

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 08:21 发表
$ A7 M% I* F# \  n6 Q7 s" d- LDon't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

紫光

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 08:21 发表
Don't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

QWE321

In average sale 3000 per month, but last 6 months, the sales between 1000 to 2000.
Is the mean there are other 6000 potential buyers there?
# J# @8 L. R' q$ C; v* gHow about all these potential buyers start taking their action?
& s5 }/ K7 P1 E* f- i. eThat is what i say half full or half empty.
good luck for people seeking their house.

水管工

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 10:09 发表
In average sale 3000 per month, but last 6 months, the sales between 1000 to 2000.
Is the mean there are other 6000 potential buyers there?
How about all these potential buyers start taking the ...

I think a lot of investors and speculators are quitting from the market, it is too hard for them to make money. Instead, they are dumping their houses now to make a profit.

WST

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-16 16:13 发表
' U5 `4 [, e9 n/ q4 t7 Y# zEdmonton Single Family Home
MLS Statistics(Unofficial)
  Y4 O- R3 g) }3 nIncludes Edmonton, St Albert, Sherwood Park, Spruce Grove, Stony Plain
. a+ s3 N$ ^6 J- B( n5 A% ANote: These areas do not coincide with the criteria used by the  ...

2 E/ r* S& e" B) |QWE321:　这些数据来源于何处？是否可靠？又无网站连接?

QWE321

http://www.bobtruman.com/Edmonton_SFH_stats/page_1918017.html

小曲

原帖由 水管工 于 2007-10-17 10:23 发表
$ l. x6 N- D/ k, H& E- U- X' d
! g$ b; D8 O7 n$ x
I think a lot of investors and speculators are quitting from the market, it is too hard for them to make money. Instead, they are dumping their houses now to make a profit.

# @( r6 b: t) L

WST

原帖由 Z 于 2007-10-17 07:36 发表
1）房价持续下跌，每尺从303跌到295。
5 n# y! i* q' |6 G: \7 z+ D- T2）成交房里大房子比重上升，使得每尺单价下跌但总的中位价上升。
+ f7 Z" z: x3 _; S& ^3）存量惊人。每年秋冬，存量都会锐减。但现在是持平。考虑到季节因素，存量其实是增加了。

* `- N4 u, I  y! Z( k, R( p) }下半年，存量通常会持续增加，以卡城为例，参考下图：
, A, O: n# |# A( I

) q& b( \- E- }8 x+ v3 n
只有去年例外，存量在年末锐减。

WST

上图为days inventory 和 总存量有不同。总存量在年末的确大减。
看来，观察days inventory 更重要。