Single Family info update Oct 1-10

QWE321

Edmonton Single Family Home
) E4 h$ F, m( @9 LMLS Statistics(Unofficial)
- [  }+ `/ v9 @Includes Edmonton, St Albert, Sherwood Park, Spruce Grove, Stony Plain
' C4 E; D/ k+ e- o" N9 R! c4 U8 CNote: These areas do not coincide with the criteria used by the Edmonton Real Estate Board

Date      Inventory  New Listings Added  Sales  30-Day Avg Price 30-Day Median Price SP/SF DOM Sales/NewListing Ratio  

* h$ X2 S; X3 a2 B! A* qOct 1-10 4879 678 185 429,254 394,000 295 40 27%

Sep 2007 5030 2214 515 426,984 390,000 303 41 23%
# r% g! O1 I2 r- Q8 {7 x4 J
: [3 Q# |0 |2 G1 ]Aug 2007 4656 2108 635 429,889 395,000 314 36 30%
3 M8 [; X1 U8 ~5 h, L
4 U- d5 \6 D) H; ^Jul 2007
NA
2 G9 o! V: X5 u, X. Q 2328
% ?2 d. l4 [3 }  g 717
442,752
410,000
* C7 O+ y8 }2 E) c/ l* y: ?$ R) R0 N 320
28
4 H; ?) z* ~* {2 N4 d6 j) N# p" K0 N 31%
* d( `8 l2 p9 Y, x
Jun 2007
  `$ |* W# C5 h$ H, X NA
2661
1011
, K1 i& ?6 Y9 ~: v/ u 442,817
9 i$ X$ w* q1 v/ X9 i 409,000
! ~! C# W% l; z1 j( v2 l; d 328
22
/ Q* O' c  T1 E' o) N 38%
  r) K0 y2 ]) U' g* h: e
May 2007
% x) b; K6 c6 C5 x% W NA
2288
1261
451,216
415,000
3 S9 M4 R2 r/ K* `# E 322
7 G& R+ s7 R7 K8 C 19
# T+ j2 {+ j! t- Q 55%

紫光

存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
鉴定完毕！

WST

看来，存货似已见顶。
6 f  T' {4 \7 n这几天，在街上又见现金收购房子的广告。

yj151

景之白干

原帖由 紫光 于 2007-10-16 22:03 发表
$ k  S* J. _! |; R* F7 n( @存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
鉴定完毕！

2 L6 y. z3 j% _3 f
用十天的数据来和30天的比较，鉴定结果可靠吗？

Z

1）房价持续下跌，每尺从303跌到295。
2）成交房里大房子比重上升，使得每尺单价下跌但总的中位价上升。
7 ]) o, N5 p# H- m" I2 [: L3）存量惊人。每年秋冬，存量都会锐减。但现在是持平。考虑到季节因素，存量其实是增加了。

Z

原帖由 紫光 于 2007-10-16 22:03 发表
/ S9 [2 m2 V. f& m存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
鉴定完毕！

5 t; `6 V5 z4 B' d" g$ G7 s
6 v; h/ J4 f; Q1 A2 t5 b/ X呵呵，太不专业了吧。
9 M6 m: g" c3 S$ D# e
新存量 = 旧存量 + 新列量 - 新销量 - 下市量

就是说， 存量变化 = 新存量 - 旧存量 = 新列量 - 新销量 - 下市量 = 678 -185 - 下市量
& Q' X& C, R1 M8 N, O8 K! T1 A/ _1 U
这里面我们没有下市量的数据。你简单的回避新增的678和未知的下市量，你的算法也太粗糙了。

QWE321

Don't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

judyzh

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 08:21 发表
$ `. ^- M6 f2 H2 ?Don't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

: _6 `1 n" g) @- t" I3 ]

紫光

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 08:21 发表
Don't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

9 }4 e2 q% @; Z9 J5 o

QWE321

In average sale 3000 per month, but last 6 months, the sales between 1000 to 2000.
Is the mean there are other 6000 potential buyers there?
+ g" J( l  r0 [( S! iHow about all these potential buyers start taking their action?
That is what i say half full or half empty.
9 t" m8 ?4 q! f2 S6 }good luck for people seeking their house.

水管工

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 10:09 发表
In average sale 3000 per month, but last 6 months, the sales between 1000 to 2000.
Is the mean there are other 6000 potential buyers there?
4 N+ u% m) h9 `, [  C5 V" C, THow about all these potential buyers start taking the ...

I think a lot of investors and speculators are quitting from the market, it is too hard for them to make money. Instead, they are dumping their houses now to make a profit.

WST

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-16 16:13 发表
Edmonton Single Family Home
MLS Statistics(Unofficial)
' F7 |4 z/ e  D4 W. T: ~( UIncludes Edmonton, St Albert, Sherwood Park, Spruce Grove, Stony Plain
Note: These areas do not coincide with the criteria used by the  ...

( t, _4 L( s; h* W2 [3 w1 LQWE321:　这些数据来源于何处？是否可靠？又无网站连接?

QWE321

http://www.bobtruman.com/Edmonton_SFH_stats/page_1918017.html

小曲

原帖由 水管工 于 2007-10-17 10:23 发表


I think a lot of investors and speculators are quitting from the market, it is too hard for them to make money. Instead, they are dumping their houses now to make a profit.

WST

原帖由 Z 于 2007-10-17 07:36 发表
1）房价持续下跌，每尺从303跌到295。
2）成交房里大房子比重上升，使得每尺单价下跌但总的中位价上升。
/ |2 _' h( t3 Q* _# H6 W3）存量惊人。每年秋冬，存量都会锐减。但现在是持平。考虑到季节因素，存量其实是增加了。

2 h  n5 G! u! N6 c' y  F
' K8 r$ @9 C# A  }1 W8 r* q下半年，存量通常会持续增加，以卡城为例，参考下图：
. Y& L6 k% h& O
6 f* ]; k; m  G1 Z

只有去年例外，存量在年末锐减。

WST

上图为days inventory 和 总存量有不同。总存量在年末的确大减。
看来，观察days inventory 更重要。