Single Family info update Oct 1-10

QWE321

Edmonton Single Family Home
MLS Statistics(Unofficial)
Includes Edmonton, St Albert, Sherwood Park, Spruce Grove, Stony Plain
Note: These areas do not coincide with the criteria used by the Edmonton Real Estate Board
% w1 Y8 I# ?- b0 k) ?( |
Date      Inventory  New Listings Added  Sales  30-Day Avg Price 30-Day Median Price SP/SF DOM Sales/NewListing Ratio  

) l2 k) z/ y1 V" E1 @Oct 1-10 4879 678 185 429,254 394,000 295 40 27%
# R6 ~' [0 F3 L# A% Q
0 z# M' x) W2 m7 cSep 2007 5030 2214 515 426,984 390,000 303 41 23%
* f* \; \; J" Z( r0 E, t" H6 E% B* y
) ^( @6 }3 r/ J1 zAug 2007 4656 2108 635 429,889 395,000 314 36 30%

Jul 2007
NA
2328
717
442,752
! {  R# s$ x  f# J4 g/ v3 S 410,000
7 U+ `. N0 f/ X2 \4 y2 U1 }3 A 320
28
31%

$ n3 o7 |3 |) c( }! r, P$ z  l0 MJun 2007
NA
/ q( Y0 X) P  s) h 2661
2 a, _( ~- a! F5 v; _: }- E 1011
  K  x: E6 q6 E2 s 442,817
409,000
328
) b) o* Q% d( e 22
38%

May 2007
NA
9 z1 D1 V- t! h6 { 2288
1261
451,216
415,000
322
19
" m% F9 T7 k% p, g3 O 55%

紫光

存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
: x" x5 @6 X' f1 O) O鉴定完毕！

WST

看来，存货似已见顶。
& S: F. I: d  `( g1 l+ i3 _这几天，在街上又见现金收购房子的广告。

yj151

景之白干

原帖由 紫光 于 2007-10-16 22:03 发表
5 l6 R" u* K) _7 R- n3 P存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
鉴定完毕！

用十天的数据来和30天的比较，鉴定结果可靠吗？

Z

1）房价持续下跌，每尺从303跌到295。
2）成交房里大房子比重上升，使得每尺单价下跌但总的中位价上升。
3）存量惊人。每年秋冬，存量都会锐减。但现在是持平。考虑到季节因素，存量其实是增加了。

Z

原帖由 紫光 于 2007-10-16 22:03 发表
存货降151， AVG.PRICE涨0.53%
鉴定完毕！

+ W& _  ~9 a  D8 E0 I% V( O* J
呵呵，太不专业了吧。
6 Z! i( w2 V4 x  w
新存量 = 旧存量 + 新列量 - 新销量 - 下市量
' ^: J! p6 X8 N* D" n/ I; d
就是说， 存量变化 = 新存量 - 旧存量 = 新列量 - 新销量 - 下市量 = 678 -185 - 下市量
8 ^1 s( f7 N  }5 \- L
% V0 U" h$ I5 _+ t& ~8 a这里面我们没有下市量的数据。你简单的回避新增的678和未知的下市量，你的算法也太粗糙了。

QWE321

Don't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

judyzh

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 08:21 发表
+ N% P' C$ q8 EDon't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

. U: {) T# Q8 D% `) @  [

紫光

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 08:21 发表
2 t( U5 Y7 y* B5 D& b: k; vDon't be too serious, Just like water in the cup, somebody say half full and others say half empty.

QWE321

In average sale 3000 per month, but last 6 months, the sales between 1000 to 2000.
Is the mean there are other 6000 potential buyers there?
How about all these potential buyers start taking their action?
That is what i say half full or half empty.
good luck for people seeking their house.

水管工

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-17 10:09 发表
0 R) `0 H  W: ^In average sale 3000 per month, but last 6 months, the sales between 1000 to 2000.
0 S: F1 H" ?+ B2 m8 ^( GIs the mean there are other 6000 potential buyers there?
How about all these potential buyers start taking the ...

2 J+ {# b% s8 W# }
& a1 ^4 d: o6 {/ @5 _I think a lot of investors and speculators are quitting from the market, it is too hard for them to make money. Instead, they are dumping their houses now to make a profit.

WST

原帖由 QWE321 于 2007-10-16 16:13 发表
! {" f6 e$ N( d+ N8 aEdmonton Single Family Home
MLS Statistics(Unofficial)
( G- |8 y" h* x0 oIncludes Edmonton, St Albert, Sherwood Park, Spruce Grove, Stony Plain
7 c2 |( ^* B# k  _. n2 k0 ]Note: These areas do not coincide with the criteria used by the  ...

QWE321:　这些数据来源于何处？是否可靠？又无网站连接?

QWE321

http://www.bobtruman.com/Edmonton_SFH_stats/page_1918017.html

小曲

原帖由 水管工 于 2007-10-17 10:23 发表

  s6 ~/ m5 C; z6 Z
I think a lot of investors and speculators are quitting from the market, it is too hard for them to make money. Instead, they are dumping their houses now to make a profit.

WST

原帖由 Z 于 2007-10-17 07:36 发表
+ |2 P" {" Q1 C) O9 J6 ~1）房价持续下跌，每尺从303跌到295。
1 b' G, F. ]* l# I5 n! ]# N; B2）成交房里大房子比重上升，使得每尺单价下跌但总的中位价上升。
3）存量惊人。每年秋冬，存量都会锐减。但现在是持平。考虑到季节因素，存量其实是增加了。

下半年，存量通常会持续增加，以卡城为例，参考下图：



$ K' ~* A- l1 _! |* W$ Y# h& e只有去年例外，存量在年末锐减。

WST

上图为days inventory 和 总存量有不同。总存量在年末的确大减。
  G) N5 w; f3 o看来，观察days inventory 更重要。