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reaction to Alberta’s proposed royalty over done

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发表于 2007-10-26 07:47 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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Look for buying opportunity in Suncor and Canadian Natural, Citigroup says " k% d5 {# {8 N7 y$ ?9 V( O
The negative after-market reaction to Alberta’s proposed royalty changes for the energy sector appears overdone and may present an opportunity to buy some names in the sector, says Citigroup analyst Doug Leggate. - c% x' C% G* d7 v: F4 Q2 X
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He recommends keeping an eye on preferred names in the sector like Suncor Energy Inc. (SU/TSX) and Canadian Natural Resources Ltd. (CNQ/TSX), but admits there will likely be a strong response to any change from the industry.9 R& C7 y% B7 V1 w
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This view is partly a result of oil prices. Citigroup has a long-term oil price assumption of US$60 per barrel, which means the changes are not considered material enough to warrant any alterations to its earnings or target prices.5 g6 u3 l& W0 \/ l3 Y+ C

" T6 N$ R. Z8 z+ T# G/ H; H! `$ QAt first glance, the proposed regime looks significantly less onerous than feared, Mr. Leggate said in a research note, adding that with US$55 oil, there would be no changes to his assumptions.; _2 d2 O! Q/ r7 f' @8 ]+ x
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There would be an impact with prices at US$100 and the royalty rate increases on a sliding scale with a cap at US$120 for WTI crude, he said, adding that the sector is discounting prices below US$60.
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, d! `( S) O6 S8 X4 L- V: [“...Versus the level of oil prices we estimate are currently being discounted in the major Canadian oil sands players, the impact on valuations looks benign,” Mr. Leggate wrote.
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  Z( `0 T# a: mSo while he acknowledged that the new regime gives away some upside, the analyst thinks plenty of core value remains with investors.
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