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Attention Real Estate Reporters:
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; G) H2 q, ~8 e( Z; M% R: uDespite US housing woes Canadian real estate remains upbeat
5 f! \: b5 u% ^ TORONTO, Nov. 5 /CNW/ - Leading real estate experts are predicting the US" i1 P. N/ z4 m/ z5 o. s
commercial real estate market will slow in 2008 and follow a similar pattern* a" U- o! t8 x0 ]" n
as the current residential market. However, according to the annual Emerging& R n+ X! b4 n. Z( B
Trends in Real Estate 2008 report, released by PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC)
( ^2 \( \% e9 r4 o; g2 }and the Urban Land Institute (ULI), their Canadian counterparts are much more
' @, h8 g' x0 X+ q j( i8 A Fupbeat.! i5 _8 e1 F6 y$ E
Now in its 29th year, Emerging Trends is the oldest, most highly regarded) D' G$ W" A3 `9 n O: b
annual industry outlook for the real estate industry. The report reflects
8 ^' f6 B/ T5 ?! r, I, A# Tinterviews with and surveys of more than 600 of the industry's leading real+ A" g, [+ @9 l! y- Y& o
estate experts, including investors, developers, property company
& q9 [- v0 o7 w$ jrepresentatives, lenders, brokers and consultants in both Canada and the US.# G# Y* ?+ z8 k6 O
Other versions of this report are conducted in countries around the world7 R: h! x4 k7 S! X: k- h5 s
including Asia Pacific and Europe.
" F! ~0 d" h% x( _+ ~ According to Chris Potter, PwC partner and leader of the firm's Canadian
! o5 E" z8 p' N4 yReal Estate Tax practice, Canada benefits from a more conservative investment
0 a1 c* p( |% ~$ n3 j# L" S7 G$ ?environment than the US. "In Canada, institution-dominated markets appear to5 }: o* a9 d0 M" O1 _7 V3 q1 Q
be avoiding 'transaction mania', but real estate values have reached record1 G9 c0 q7 C+ b C% q/ ]+ S
highs and a strong economy has accelerated tenant demand for space."
4 I6 C2 l8 F0 P' W. u According to American respondents, a healthy correction south of the
9 t1 m6 b# J5 Z3 x6 r1 _3 I5 Mborder will likely bypass long-term investors but penalize late-to-the-game' Q) P+ f9 F' O, |4 _2 W- n* q
speculators and overleveraged buyers. Canadian respondents to the survey8 q2 B" ?0 N' C3 R! _; @ w# @( B
remain positive about sidestepping any serious impacts of this possible US
) n1 L5 K. V% f/ S8 rcorrection. Close to 36% view their prospects for profitability in 2008 to be
) g- Y' j8 h) S) z6 Tvery good and a further 22.4% say they're excellent.% X9 S# c: K+ u ]5 W4 l3 P
The strongest areas of real estate business activity for Canadian
/ a8 ?3 p9 _! yrespondents is predicted to be within real estate services, followed by- b4 ^0 l* A( C
commercial/multifamily development and homebuilding/residential land
2 \7 a i6 b" ?$ Z3 |, X/ u. z- I9 C$ Cdevelopment. All property sectors share positive prospects across the country5 E. W2 k8 s0 t) a
especially industrial and retail with respondents, on average, stating2 ?9 {; h( Q. B8 U
development prospects are expected to be modestly good to good. The
$ c& x9 z ^- [; m0 jresidential for-sale market is also expected to fair well, but might need to
- O' j+ |$ B. U6 n* Itake a breather as homebuilders cannot keep up with the current pace and* Z& h) R! r7 N6 F: X- I' h' c
single-family housing looks overpriced.! J8 C5 U/ n% R7 K
Office stock is seeing limited inventories and dated product fill up with$ E+ t0 D- \5 U. \& `! H2 |
tenants. Except for Montreal, where office vacancies are nearing 9%. Canadian) ]7 j" o8 a0 ~+ w+ j" B, C; V
metropolitan areas boast below 5% vacancies, and rents have room to push& h; G" b& ]8 l; q- y% R4 Q
higher. The survey is also showing that costs and land scarcity is limiting
" f o0 L# T! A3 S8 U2 z" Z* C; Jnew development. Hotel investment and development prospects are modestly good,5 a* W s# o: N. n# F" \
and most respondents rate this sector either a buy or a hold. Rental
6 [' ^: S% ~+ F2 Sapartments are doing well in major cities with high immigration flows. Primary
! Q# ]! ^- u* O- I+ @' p! s+ m) X) D ^western cities - Vancouver, Calgary, and Edmonton - are veering toward housing
8 k6 m; x* j- F$ n( tshortages as workers, attracted by a plethora of well-paying jobs, pour into2 _. f% u& Z8 \6 @$ f
the energy zone. Apartment occupancies are soaring in these areas. Development7 [; Z; a% S( W- N0 ^
in other regions remains difficult because of costs and land scarcity.( m$ C% M; \4 |
+ Y7 T' j1 E ~ r4 q
Canadian Markets to Watch
" `2 p6 x+ v" t
2 p9 `& u6 O% e7 _. o The report comments on how Canadians like to live and work in central" I& @4 q7 K- s) i4 `- Z
cities, as long as they can afford it. If housing is too pricey in 24-hour& b! P/ K) H9 X1 X4 v2 l
neighbourhoods, people move to inner-ring suburbs or beyond and commute back# u; G& [: f$ E4 f/ a" R
into the cores. Investors, especially the institutions, are concentrated in( g' M7 p* A5 N
downtown areas too. Planners and developers focus on infill and more vertical
9 U: g* `0 \0 Q$ M( bprojects, which reinforce the urban cores. The hot-growth energy cities out& q. K& Q5 j9 c8 Y2 ?$ ^
west - Calgary and Edmonton - score the highest ratings for investment9 w/ G, C7 v& N
prospects, development, and for-sale housing, although it is not certain# ~" y: ^- Y5 S: S
whether the recent announcements on royalties will have any effect on this.+ A* j. [2 ?1 m+ W# \
Toronto, Canada's premier global pathway city, and Vancouver also have high( |. l0 s3 r7 w: B0 C+ m ?
ratings. Ottawa and Montreal follow, with Halifax lagging.' F2 E/ i) `9 ?) _
# z. H4 d8 j" a4 H- T4 O# U Calgary/Edmonton
$ L, z* e# V/ A7 X3 @: d; P- E) K: l
: V8 K( v8 s# n Calgary is the Canada's "resource" capital and North America's number-one# p7 ]) x( n! I$ R7 D; ]
boomtown. Survey respondents foresee strong buys for all sectors: 53.5% give a
* L; O0 o6 A3 B7 X0 ]( @buy recommendation for Hotel Property, 52.8% for Industrial/Distribution,. I) `9 ~+ S: u7 C
48.1% for Retail and Apartment Residential and 44.6% for Office Property.
. C& [7 _2 H( i( iFurthermore, on average the majority of respondents see Calgary For-Sale% X( W1 z4 }6 i
Homebuilding prospects as very good. Edmonton is closely mimicking the4 I G: a4 V( D$ p' n+ G% U
Calgary-style growth wave and as long as demand for energy resources stays z% P3 N }' C& O# t% i6 C3 J
strong, this market will continue to do well.3 Z6 X3 t! o* y/ M- Q9 t' R1 K
/ A0 |& c k! h( Z( w Vancouver
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) M; K3 N- i& l2 ?% s Vancouver's diversified economy is roaring, the mining industry is3 E1 i0 ]8 ]$ Z8 C3 [: V
booming and the city provides a large port and a high-tech center. Outrageous5 k8 ~ u7 a P- D
real estate prices frustrate homebuyers and commercial investors and the
& T- D5 u/ p' ^% h( `market is extremely hard to crack. The 2010 Winter Olympic Games is also a
& {9 z2 }* ?1 l' Ngrowth driver and accordingly 44.7% of respondents give Vancouver a buy% h0 [+ i; e1 t6 h5 J6 y& B, U: V
recommendation for Hotel Property. A further 43.5% give a buy Retail, 41.3%( d! Z7 t8 h. N h& a
for Industrial/Distribution and 36.7% for Office Property followed by 34.1%
: n: l$ I4 z1 B5 b, Q3 Z9 x! efor Apartment Residential property. Vancouver also ranks in the good to very) B9 o# y; f* T: m* D6 l) Q% }
good mark for for-sale homebuilding prospects.
6 K% ?) P; K$ q- t: s$ s5 G. ]8 ~3 M$ o. q; n; A7 Z
Toronto& b: @% z8 W$ v! C
# P/ V) R3 ]- Q+ w$ k- T Toronto ranks as a major global pathway destination, 24-hour city, and0 }- B! K9 i3 }8 Q9 {
manufacturing hub. Compared with other national financial centers, the city is
. A" G" _. H \3 Z. `4 rrelatively inexpensive. However, the rising loonie is hurting manufacturing
1 I1 I+ y# L, t8 Z/ C) zindustries, and clouds over the US economy threaten to stall out momentum.
1 @# `' Q) E; KThree new office towers are under construction, adding 3 million new square
. m% o5 H7 N5 h# z9 L4 _1 p, {feet of office space. Notably, Office (49.1%), Industrial (46.2%) and
" X i3 z3 p. r/ L- sApartments (40.8%) are given solid buys.% a6 f* a) |# \* r
5 S1 o/ S, @, c4 O Montreal9 h# l; N k' F2 E" w! A
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Montreal continues to face concerns about market stability and overall
7 y4 Y) x" w6 W# [% G/ Tgrowth prospects as major companies no longer choose it as a place to set up
9 z8 s7 `( C3 q8 ?+ n6 P" Lshop. But, plenty of government offices fill space. Of the larger cities in0 g, M, N% a; J+ \/ d
Canada, Montreal ranks lowest as a "buy" recommendation in all real estate; k0 G$ J( m/ \+ ^) V4 t3 G( O
sectors. However, respondents generally rated all Montreal real estate sectors
7 M$ g( P8 E2 C- L& h( ^: n; l( ?higher as a "hold" recommendation.
& j; q1 v' j% m K8 t' U6 s8 m) y, I" |) K6 N. f
The report notes that best bets for investors for the coming years7 ~" j& a1 r8 B% [6 y( b
include a focus on all property sectors in the high-growth western energy
6 W" t/ x* n+ s5 | W0 \markets, hold on central business district office space, develop infill condos
) o: G! T0 D( c2 L- vnear subways stops in Toronto, buy infill sites wherever you can and invest
( s) b- a- L2 Z9 H; toverseas. Potter concludes, "Domestic opportunities are too limited at current
& W2 n) o( \! h' v9 ]prices."
9 w/ q4 ?, d% d A copy of Emerging Trends in Real Estate(R) 2008 is available at' q0 ~+ i( }5 Z+ \" X
www.uli.org or www.pwc.com/imre.
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( m5 h& y# i) Z, b& x3 L$ y About PricewaterhouseCoopers
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9 t+ |' W, D) n6 d: G PricewaterhouseCoopers (www.pwc.com) provides industry-focused assurance,- \6 j' n6 O0 Q
tax and advisory services to build public trust and enhance value for its6 L$ k+ _5 g7 U$ G* p
clients and their stakeholders. More than 140,000 people in 149 countries
' w7 s {% g8 M' T2 l% wacross our network share their thinking, experience and solutions to develop
8 y* L) c4 {& i, \8 m( m& lfresh perspectives and practical advice. Now celebrating 100 years of
3 \5 ] J7 t' Q3 x( Xexcellence in Canada, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP (www.pwc.com/ca) and its
9 f" a7 x I- @related entities have more than 5,200 partners and staff in offices across the
& I x* R; e# |! o Tcountry.
' S" B: G1 \/ l- ]9 L8 { "PricewaterhouseCoopers" refers to PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, an Ontario, u( e! X8 }4 P
limited liability partnership, or, as the context requires, the) L5 H' g: [8 b* h
PricewaterhouseCoopers global network or other member firms of the network,
; x' l; o1 w3 Yeach of which is a separate and independent legal entity.
) U& L% H8 c& k; k6 Z* F, Y ?: o6 t) j0 c% j9 }) m
About the Urban Land Institute
4 N& c1 _. K4 [0 C1 ]6 u: n/ e+ d+ x+ T; z7 n. I* c. z
The Urban Land Institute (www.uli.org) is a nonprofit education and& z' r1 ]; {; B- q7 F6 r
research institute supported by its members. Its mission is to provide1 j; U1 d3 z: _8 z7 P4 }
leadership in the responsible use of land and in sustaining and creating- D! K: u& O( v% j0 G1 V' Y
thriving communities worldwide. Established in 1936, the Institute has more
; O* m$ t6 R, vthan 38,000 members representing all aspects of land use and development
- S9 J# x# }/ ^2 h( Y2 r% idisciplines.' R* C2 w- H3 Q
The Urban Land Institute is an active and growing organization in Canada.
8 R5 f" j; w5 V vWith nearly 700 members across the country, Canada's first ULI District
+ H+ q6 v& n% D" y- T: m9 \Council was established in Toronto in 2005 and a second District Council is
" z* M: D) S1 K5 R7 H2 Mnow being formed in British Columbia. The Toronto District Council will be
" k/ {6 S3 q& E1 f# ]8 dhosting a special event on Emerging Trends in Real Estate on November 20th,8 B- X' Z, t4 I0 @9 k
2007, featuring Jonathan Miller, the principal author of the report, Blake+ m+ @5 G6 Q+ B0 F+ ]
Hutcheson, President of CB Richard Ellis Canada Ltd., and George Carras,
* E8 g# `9 M2 u [: H( FPresident of RealNet Canada Inc. For more information on this event, please( w( X; U; _& v- c( y6 O L+ U# Z
call the Toronto District Council Coordinator at (647) 258-0017, or look on8 V/ ?& B& A# P4 s! E
the web at www.uli.org/events/index.cfm?id=3066.2 F) [* r: E( P' Q
7 o# |" p0 Q" `; ?7 ]/ ] b. x/ j
, R- k* G2 E2 e% l0 S* S8 L, p2 q
+ K6 {) v* n" {3 SFor further information: Carolyn Forest, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP,; J. o0 O' g) N8 W1 V2 a
(416) 814-5730, carolyn.forest@ca.pwc.com0 \4 ~7 v5 z+ j9 k5 h; g
http://www.newswire.ca/en/releas ... r2007/05/c4080.html
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