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Attention Real Estate Reporters:
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6 b3 t/ E/ S+ GDespite US housing woes Canadian real estate remains upbeat
/ d" {& T1 a# {- g% I N: n TORONTO, Nov. 5 /CNW/ - Leading real estate experts are predicting the US; h t# k2 r5 d% j; ^ Q0 A7 k
commercial real estate market will slow in 2008 and follow a similar pattern
j: Y2 q) Q! l* q# W r7 qas the current residential market. However, according to the annual Emerging9 s! s: f M# }1 K# l+ p0 T- e/ A
Trends in Real Estate 2008 report, released by PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC)
' a) a. q% U1 e* W2 q: x! w" ]; dand the Urban Land Institute (ULI), their Canadian counterparts are much more
2 M- N4 L [+ g7 t6 [9 t2 _upbeat.
; f5 j1 n8 p7 |! |5 l6 a/ `% B Now in its 29th year, Emerging Trends is the oldest, most highly regarded# z) J. t2 N* c9 }* L# r" F" y: z2 g% x
annual industry outlook for the real estate industry. The report reflects: k2 K0 S4 p0 T2 w4 s, ?; f3 N
interviews with and surveys of more than 600 of the industry's leading real
2 d/ w2 e$ L1 R- M, Z, \5 n" @estate experts, including investors, developers, property company
- Q% y5 m/ Q* b2 E/ vrepresentatives, lenders, brokers and consultants in both Canada and the US.# r1 B! X' _! A3 K0 w% l
Other versions of this report are conducted in countries around the world
- X) T; d$ Q( H) X) ?. W' E; lincluding Asia Pacific and Europe.
! `4 O, F9 R' g S8 G According to Chris Potter, PwC partner and leader of the firm's Canadian; b% X4 u9 |+ L) `8 N& n
Real Estate Tax practice, Canada benefits from a more conservative investment
6 S$ V2 A% G- r3 o1 yenvironment than the US. "In Canada, institution-dominated markets appear to0 `" s. _/ ?) t+ |# _/ W" g
be avoiding 'transaction mania', but real estate values have reached record
5 l" E. D9 d8 h1 Shighs and a strong economy has accelerated tenant demand for space."' ~8 X/ U1 }8 c6 A2 m
According to American respondents, a healthy correction south of the
% G, ^) i; d. `) l* a( uborder will likely bypass long-term investors but penalize late-to-the-game
* u/ A! ], o7 A6 A( c; {speculators and overleveraged buyers. Canadian respondents to the survey; p+ l ? f* `2 }' I8 c/ V `( ~" M8 @
remain positive about sidestepping any serious impacts of this possible US
5 d& L* G6 d/ @3 M# W2 x: s* Ucorrection. Close to 36% view their prospects for profitability in 2008 to be" A! n% Y4 b. e* ~8 L
very good and a further 22.4% say they're excellent.! o# {0 }- }5 y* e' P
The strongest areas of real estate business activity for Canadian
+ i" a5 P! }0 U+ r1 qrespondents is predicted to be within real estate services, followed by
+ E9 F1 v, }2 P' Hcommercial/multifamily development and homebuilding/residential land
1 j# Z9 s+ ^! o+ a" E8 Y7 rdevelopment. All property sectors share positive prospects across the country1 H O& T# T7 B, C w
especially industrial and retail with respondents, on average, stating Q% ~5 O( J U# A' u
development prospects are expected to be modestly good to good. The5 p+ ^4 ?: }4 i) X
residential for-sale market is also expected to fair well, but might need to
( e( R& L7 r" utake a breather as homebuilders cannot keep up with the current pace and
& z) f" O% e3 g+ k" @single-family housing looks overpriced.
8 a4 w3 P' i2 a) M+ w& A Office stock is seeing limited inventories and dated product fill up with1 q; n3 U# h6 c# L1 M" [% O. d- p
tenants. Except for Montreal, where office vacancies are nearing 9%. Canadian( O! r( E+ d: g3 M/ g+ D
metropolitan areas boast below 5% vacancies, and rents have room to push2 {2 {8 n% \% G' c
higher. The survey is also showing that costs and land scarcity is limiting. m) k4 u- i2 N3 e M3 M5 H l
new development. Hotel investment and development prospects are modestly good,
: ~8 b' W/ s( o) Uand most respondents rate this sector either a buy or a hold. Rental
0 b1 [- c8 X% m0 |7 Aapartments are doing well in major cities with high immigration flows. Primary: i9 m0 k; s% ~# @5 t4 Y# q* S
western cities - Vancouver, Calgary, and Edmonton - are veering toward housing5 ?4 q2 l& B0 G# F& ?5 k# i
shortages as workers, attracted by a plethora of well-paying jobs, pour into' L5 c; Y& v2 ]- z& _ o
the energy zone. Apartment occupancies are soaring in these areas. Development2 l4 I# V4 K- T
in other regions remains difficult because of costs and land scarcity.* O/ g; y- j& U2 n* U: K
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Canadian Markets to Watch5 }: }5 _/ Z& U! J
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The report comments on how Canadians like to live and work in central
4 \# ~& n9 g6 { L/ @7 Ncities, as long as they can afford it. If housing is too pricey in 24-hour5 j T/ J: V& v+ s3 y5 e
neighbourhoods, people move to inner-ring suburbs or beyond and commute back
' H! O: t+ f4 Jinto the cores. Investors, especially the institutions, are concentrated in0 w- P! M' w' g7 m
downtown areas too. Planners and developers focus on infill and more vertical
+ ^3 r( V5 T% n7 {! V+ ]/ o; Oprojects, which reinforce the urban cores. The hot-growth energy cities out, \0 d5 g" O! r9 A: s% F- _
west - Calgary and Edmonton - score the highest ratings for investment
) g- M* v8 k$ C. C% ]prospects, development, and for-sale housing, although it is not certain
6 c( M0 u0 l% Y4 M6 [: Y, Gwhether the recent announcements on royalties will have any effect on this.
: _2 e2 `" U; b" W! c7 e9 xToronto, Canada's premier global pathway city, and Vancouver also have high
: ]0 }. q u( q/ ~ratings. Ottawa and Montreal follow, with Halifax lagging.
3 g9 p2 }2 s& J4 U3 ]& _6 ?$ X( M) R7 e! ?& Q
Calgary/Edmonton' B6 E7 n( Q( b" g0 l @
' [% N/ j' z9 i0 u6 d/ @ Calgary is the Canada's "resource" capital and North America's number-one
4 V V5 ]3 M( ~1 q, jboomtown. Survey respondents foresee strong buys for all sectors: 53.5% give a
: m+ R5 C7 S* x6 V# Rbuy recommendation for Hotel Property, 52.8% for Industrial/Distribution,
" v$ n, y& J$ t: Z48.1% for Retail and Apartment Residential and 44.6% for Office Property.
2 |* N9 a; f* u, f' }9 O' VFurthermore, on average the majority of respondents see Calgary For-Sale+ T& l1 d& C1 r: Q
Homebuilding prospects as very good. Edmonton is closely mimicking the9 m. P- l$ T# p8 H; O% g% d
Calgary-style growth wave and as long as demand for energy resources stays2 v5 ^' U0 l7 n/ X1 s
strong, this market will continue to do well.
2 o' E" o; V" m% J7 }4 F' Q6 Z& h$ }4 I* h+ m
Vancouver
, p7 y5 ^ `3 u# P* d x3 j5 p) R; B. Y: A. G; w
Vancouver's diversified economy is roaring, the mining industry is
( ]! X/ f/ V, M# H! ~/ ~- bbooming and the city provides a large port and a high-tech center. Outrageous
) X, A* V K Z9 @/ k/ v6 l1 @/ U8 mreal estate prices frustrate homebuyers and commercial investors and the3 @- T' M7 a! Z
market is extremely hard to crack. The 2010 Winter Olympic Games is also a
" B* f! O: f8 Y8 k, @growth driver and accordingly 44.7% of respondents give Vancouver a buy) l6 q% w' k* v. a. P, u' e
recommendation for Hotel Property. A further 43.5% give a buy Retail, 41.3%
( j8 s0 k2 B7 S9 i! }for Industrial/Distribution and 36.7% for Office Property followed by 34.1%
6 r' w$ r& ?* E3 K! Ffor Apartment Residential property. Vancouver also ranks in the good to very
" ~% w) o h' j" pgood mark for for-sale homebuilding prospects.2 @+ t6 m9 g3 S
+ I9 Z v) E/ K; n9 U, n Toronto
h7 U5 I0 z6 O j M& W- w0 D5 u/ t1 a. t# n* Q# v
Toronto ranks as a major global pathway destination, 24-hour city, and
6 g8 u5 i7 k- H* O" w( omanufacturing hub. Compared with other national financial centers, the city is# h5 e% E4 p9 _1 D- b% U! K. t
relatively inexpensive. However, the rising loonie is hurting manufacturing+ ]% i7 G6 x* V. W
industries, and clouds over the US economy threaten to stall out momentum." X+ }% A, e1 v
Three new office towers are under construction, adding 3 million new square5 a- }8 z8 p* B
feet of office space. Notably, Office (49.1%), Industrial (46.2%) and
( Y' l$ p$ {! e- f' x, X, VApartments (40.8%) are given solid buys.& _7 u- J/ L) I; r# a
5 I6 C' ]3 M; D5 T( M" V
Montreal0 d; G" q7 c8 ~8 c$ E2 y% E
+ u$ i3 |- |) B7 x6 C Montreal continues to face concerns about market stability and overall
* u- A: B2 B) `; g/ |growth prospects as major companies no longer choose it as a place to set up
3 q3 d) _3 ]/ J8 |; V6 u( H3 nshop. But, plenty of government offices fill space. Of the larger cities in4 t% ^7 C4 K/ b1 `
Canada, Montreal ranks lowest as a "buy" recommendation in all real estate
" f. w: |) Z/ F0 m5 {$ e! n3 Bsectors. However, respondents generally rated all Montreal real estate sectors5 C$ {0 C5 v2 N/ q8 Y. l
higher as a "hold" recommendation.
1 J* d& |0 a( w" M& y
' H$ C# q7 C! T4 @8 J; B( H The report notes that best bets for investors for the coming years6 H0 u2 `5 |2 ^
include a focus on all property sectors in the high-growth western energy( _' B7 E: w8 `3 t2 }! w
markets, hold on central business district office space, develop infill condos
( ^$ [: S) E( n. m3 J1 wnear subways stops in Toronto, buy infill sites wherever you can and invest" s. H& t! U- _5 h" @
overseas. Potter concludes, "Domestic opportunities are too limited at current' e4 ^, b9 p' \- c6 b, q9 ~: u
prices."' M+ r: R& b1 \0 I8 K' e e
A copy of Emerging Trends in Real Estate(R) 2008 is available at
% P* q( Q& n' @2 Z6 {# iwww.uli.org or www.pwc.com/imre.
8 S8 S. I! }4 u/ i
% x. N" _, e: a: M- S About PricewaterhouseCoopers
2 Q- P, U6 p2 E- ^
$ ]) \7 Q- h! t2 f3 t) G PricewaterhouseCoopers (www.pwc.com) provides industry-focused assurance,
5 r* o' L2 V4 e' D. v0 V- R) U$ Jtax and advisory services to build public trust and enhance value for its$ E, k9 y4 L5 w& {8 G0 q F" l
clients and their stakeholders. More than 140,000 people in 149 countries
9 P+ w) Y* x5 U# s1 @8 g5 i7 Y* dacross our network share their thinking, experience and solutions to develop7 e6 d- M+ `+ U, \/ W1 @
fresh perspectives and practical advice. Now celebrating 100 years of
; P8 `( a# W( Z% g3 a7 H7 iexcellence in Canada, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP (www.pwc.com/ca) and its: O% D O; U) S. r i' w! ?
related entities have more than 5,200 partners and staff in offices across the& {' ~8 Q0 ]5 n! h( t
country.
% s0 z' |; } l) y$ T* z& h "PricewaterhouseCoopers" refers to PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, an Ontario
' p. y" J* H7 ^1 |! x3 ^limited liability partnership, or, as the context requires, the
6 E' A; d6 b+ F/ Z U q; KPricewaterhouseCoopers global network or other member firms of the network,
6 u1 n3 c3 p( h8 `4 m) `# Heach of which is a separate and independent legal entity.5 L' u: j6 r/ s0 [) y4 k7 I
* ~- e' d8 Y. T' i6 }$ D About the Urban Land Institute9 u- r) j3 ^$ x: b8 N) c
7 m# y" x! J" Z, D4 [" f The Urban Land Institute (www.uli.org) is a nonprofit education and) t( t/ k; P W
research institute supported by its members. Its mission is to provide0 G8 p9 | F/ G; l% Q; Z1 N; a0 W
leadership in the responsible use of land and in sustaining and creating8 _. y7 X( ]$ N8 m. X* B" \1 k- x, r
thriving communities worldwide. Established in 1936, the Institute has more
0 y2 J4 Y5 u1 @4 e" A3 ~ \than 38,000 members representing all aspects of land use and development& j4 p# K @5 V% U5 l1 c
disciplines.* K X9 E r! B$ ^
The Urban Land Institute is an active and growing organization in Canada.9 ~0 a. u: P* `8 `" j' e3 t
With nearly 700 members across the country, Canada's first ULI District% [2 B8 ]2 H/ i" Z8 ]
Council was established in Toronto in 2005 and a second District Council is2 o: K: a4 U) Y3 x
now being formed in British Columbia. The Toronto District Council will be- a( t" W I1 G9 v9 m
hosting a special event on Emerging Trends in Real Estate on November 20th,
6 ?: `; v" S- L) ]# O' V2007, featuring Jonathan Miller, the principal author of the report, Blake7 \, _6 I1 J6 t2 M o; A
Hutcheson, President of CB Richard Ellis Canada Ltd., and George Carras,
$ n8 s/ r0 b1 ^+ t; `President of RealNet Canada Inc. For more information on this event, please1 S- Q' e" v4 K) U
call the Toronto District Council Coordinator at (647) 258-0017, or look on& R$ L, E9 Q7 g5 ~' o4 A. g# l
the web at www.uli.org/events/index.cfm?id=3066.5 ?+ f# m! I# s7 W
# ~/ [/ s) B2 M9 }7 K
z/ P5 K$ M# W' n9 }4 Q0 f1 i+ K. \6 N( V9 H3 a% @- B) P! Z% Y) Z# d
For further information: Carolyn Forest, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP,' u: ^! \. q8 Y0 y( g7 X2 \" {% V
(416) 814-5730, carolyn.forest@ca.pwc.com6 g9 P. J7 j6 U
http://www.newswire.ca/en/releas ... r2007/05/c4080.html
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