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Attention Real Estate Reporters: 4 P" z2 T; L2 V# d
, ?- I- x+ P5 D# n" t+ C% ~. m( rDespite US housing woes Canadian real estate remains upbeat : p' T' k$ U m
TORONTO, Nov. 5 /CNW/ - Leading real estate experts are predicting the US
9 A( f1 R) V9 m4 }, acommercial real estate market will slow in 2008 and follow a similar pattern1 j# G9 T t3 | e3 I
as the current residential market. However, according to the annual Emerging
6 r) P. R3 ?* x3 s" ~5 VTrends in Real Estate 2008 report, released by PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC)* ~) H4 x, z1 E& f) [' M; r. s
and the Urban Land Institute (ULI), their Canadian counterparts are much more+ e: y6 c+ W1 A$ s$ W
upbeat.
; J5 ] ]' ?0 z" X' C/ |5 U Now in its 29th year, Emerging Trends is the oldest, most highly regarded/ s( q5 I7 Y, B) ~* S1 q% ~2 O
annual industry outlook for the real estate industry. The report reflects0 q9 A& p& l8 e. w& {+ s5 P) q
interviews with and surveys of more than 600 of the industry's leading real2 L2 [9 G6 H, ~
estate experts, including investors, developers, property company" ] ^9 O7 G B3 Y2 B
representatives, lenders, brokers and consultants in both Canada and the US.# u, }1 A; R9 D8 X9 w2 B. |
Other versions of this report are conducted in countries around the world
- Z5 ~' Q3 y4 V8 t2 H4 Y" Lincluding Asia Pacific and Europe.
: {: }( c4 k% ^" T" L According to Chris Potter, PwC partner and leader of the firm's Canadian9 D3 s* T' U7 W/ u, ~! B
Real Estate Tax practice, Canada benefits from a more conservative investment1 j6 n5 l6 N- Q p0 M. ~9 i8 S
environment than the US. "In Canada, institution-dominated markets appear to
4 z6 y3 V9 ~! C* Nbe avoiding 'transaction mania', but real estate values have reached record
3 M! s. |1 {% s1 n8 t ghighs and a strong economy has accelerated tenant demand for space."' b5 [, H; w9 @! D4 Q8 \0 k3 K
According to American respondents, a healthy correction south of the* Y# G: H5 p' K* C4 W' T {
border will likely bypass long-term investors but penalize late-to-the-game
6 \& ^" M0 Y7 J9 j4 gspeculators and overleveraged buyers. Canadian respondents to the survey
$ ]/ b+ R6 L9 ]6 M9 r1 |remain positive about sidestepping any serious impacts of this possible US
# y0 { g* d# a+ v9 S6 Bcorrection. Close to 36% view their prospects for profitability in 2008 to be
5 E; T% X; a1 Gvery good and a further 22.4% say they're excellent.
) x9 L) X& |8 f. [9 L5 E The strongest areas of real estate business activity for Canadian3 f' X% j V# C- I; [" b
respondents is predicted to be within real estate services, followed by4 [9 ?0 ~) Z# L9 y% q5 v& c
commercial/multifamily development and homebuilding/residential land) o+ T- J# C2 A/ C* ]+ H3 H1 A, M
development. All property sectors share positive prospects across the country- U6 s; N) R; P* {
especially industrial and retail with respondents, on average, stating
4 J2 J8 ]/ e q, w" ndevelopment prospects are expected to be modestly good to good. The
- _6 {2 ?$ l9 W# `0 v0 @residential for-sale market is also expected to fair well, but might need to
! H* l! ^% i `$ [ ~/ S. w \take a breather as homebuilders cannot keep up with the current pace and
* m2 c9 j* i! v3 D! gsingle-family housing looks overpriced.8 B% k" s" i+ q) E; ^: [
Office stock is seeing limited inventories and dated product fill up with9 v) z p, `; }# r2 g6 l$ J
tenants. Except for Montreal, where office vacancies are nearing 9%. Canadian
% r* `- u% i( f8 Q' o4 _% Ametropolitan areas boast below 5% vacancies, and rents have room to push/ S [: q) s. T1 C0 ]) u# u( Y
higher. The survey is also showing that costs and land scarcity is limiting6 p9 V) U/ R' r! W1 @3 U1 i2 N' q) j/ D; u
new development. Hotel investment and development prospects are modestly good,$ R3 @+ Q* }5 v0 C/ B8 x9 v( o
and most respondents rate this sector either a buy or a hold. Rental: x, ?% B/ ^* M
apartments are doing well in major cities with high immigration flows. Primary9 p3 R& _5 }. y I( v) S
western cities - Vancouver, Calgary, and Edmonton - are veering toward housing
+ _4 s; @+ Z7 n- a$ h \) i: sshortages as workers, attracted by a plethora of well-paying jobs, pour into
! g1 a% U+ R W0 ~! X: T0 Hthe energy zone. Apartment occupancies are soaring in these areas. Development
4 V o1 ]2 p4 kin other regions remains difficult because of costs and land scarcity.
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3 k9 {& i5 b3 \ Canadian Markets to Watch) J) c3 x4 a. v1 _0 c" o9 n8 U0 K
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The report comments on how Canadians like to live and work in central
. z" J) Y9 l9 E& Y1 o& ?cities, as long as they can afford it. If housing is too pricey in 24-hour
& U5 x$ t# `% bneighbourhoods, people move to inner-ring suburbs or beyond and commute back! B. I" E' X0 r
into the cores. Investors, especially the institutions, are concentrated in( }% {+ I# ~6 Y2 }. G; L+ m: X
downtown areas too. Planners and developers focus on infill and more vertical
0 x8 J& r* F7 F7 kprojects, which reinforce the urban cores. The hot-growth energy cities out
. m7 G2 a9 J- q3 c- s3 l: Lwest - Calgary and Edmonton - score the highest ratings for investment
( S7 t9 t: `1 n/ r8 Nprospects, development, and for-sale housing, although it is not certain
! N6 |$ ~9 u& L. C( Fwhether the recent announcements on royalties will have any effect on this.
7 ~0 Y5 S5 ?6 e7 B' \. R, hToronto, Canada's premier global pathway city, and Vancouver also have high# `' b: i/ c& V
ratings. Ottawa and Montreal follow, with Halifax lagging., }: h* Y- o& B8 B% k3 Q& ^
/ `9 J" _# {8 K* g+ g
Calgary/Edmonton: j; Z9 F/ e& r; L
+ {$ n/ `; f6 ?( k2 {
Calgary is the Canada's "resource" capital and North America's number-one/ i2 G, r( I8 w7 R/ u
boomtown. Survey respondents foresee strong buys for all sectors: 53.5% give a! Z: v' n: R& N
buy recommendation for Hotel Property, 52.8% for Industrial/Distribution,
8 I, G* K. l- H. J/ ]6 G/ l48.1% for Retail and Apartment Residential and 44.6% for Office Property.' v5 Y# O* X, K/ i) h3 g! [
Furthermore, on average the majority of respondents see Calgary For-Sale
, m6 v; L1 D- Z9 Z" l2 {3 a( tHomebuilding prospects as very good. Edmonton is closely mimicking the3 c) O8 x8 ~4 e M1 k7 V
Calgary-style growth wave and as long as demand for energy resources stays
1 I8 {" O) z$ ~# ^4 A- a6 r1 e7 cstrong, this market will continue to do well.8 r+ U; W2 [/ v% d6 g( {
* m: e0 K$ X4 ~: g' U) K7 r% [$ J5 H8 K Vancouver
" j5 K- x2 I- ~0 M( s2 ?) w: Q/ V) D+ T5 e8 `8 h2 u
Vancouver's diversified economy is roaring, the mining industry is
" _% m2 A; W1 g- r! n) c" |9 B! wbooming and the city provides a large port and a high-tech center. Outrageous8 j: T) d- `! X* K
real estate prices frustrate homebuyers and commercial investors and the
: Z$ a) h& _; ?- r* V3 s& Omarket is extremely hard to crack. The 2010 Winter Olympic Games is also a
: Q4 w# V' a9 l) T; xgrowth driver and accordingly 44.7% of respondents give Vancouver a buy
9 n& ?' [5 {2 P3 Srecommendation for Hotel Property. A further 43.5% give a buy Retail, 41.3%
* n# u( W( G9 Z V( G8 u' ?for Industrial/Distribution and 36.7% for Office Property followed by 34.1%
4 r9 h( F% m1 ^- t) C1 O1 \5 o3 J$ rfor Apartment Residential property. Vancouver also ranks in the good to very
C" ~9 t. B% _$ @. g5 U# W1 Ogood mark for for-sale homebuilding prospects./ N! |$ {7 ~) i! @& ?
9 K. m4 |9 v/ c# N* R
Toronto* D: G: H+ Y8 a* t
. j* f) y5 b1 I3 K) i: b* }
Toronto ranks as a major global pathway destination, 24-hour city, and& I) w: E$ t- e+ V3 \
manufacturing hub. Compared with other national financial centers, the city is! V+ k5 a9 E1 X8 M- P
relatively inexpensive. However, the rising loonie is hurting manufacturing
( J r/ Z3 t K, c$ Uindustries, and clouds over the US economy threaten to stall out momentum.- Y% u& v( K% q& I v" [+ K
Three new office towers are under construction, adding 3 million new square
7 I* [& U8 W Bfeet of office space. Notably, Office (49.1%), Industrial (46.2%) and
3 V) m% C5 f- n8 r4 e$ b( a9 [Apartments (40.8%) are given solid buys.
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Montreal* I" t: _, a, C* U% V! a
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Montreal continues to face concerns about market stability and overall) Z' h ]! p4 u) [% B
growth prospects as major companies no longer choose it as a place to set up
- l, N" S+ \& P* A1 Qshop. But, plenty of government offices fill space. Of the larger cities in
0 M, c$ G5 G& p; R4 Q" p* \# g/ x0 ZCanada, Montreal ranks lowest as a "buy" recommendation in all real estate
+ }6 T, t) ^/ v& e+ dsectors. However, respondents generally rated all Montreal real estate sectors; }/ y# \1 F1 ^' I6 b2 [
higher as a "hold" recommendation.$ D. i: r" k8 c: m- Q0 F5 Z
. n% _5 D& T. g: t
The report notes that best bets for investors for the coming years$ w% G7 W6 ]* M8 D$ Q: T% ]
include a focus on all property sectors in the high-growth western energy
/ }& x/ p- v/ cmarkets, hold on central business district office space, develop infill condos
, a/ W/ C8 G2 z' anear subways stops in Toronto, buy infill sites wherever you can and invest- \& w/ e* p* s: {
overseas. Potter concludes, "Domestic opportunities are too limited at current5 L2 r- J1 d' R" N$ D' O
prices."5 c" w8 p. w! e) p' r$ }9 f3 C
A copy of Emerging Trends in Real Estate(R) 2008 is available at. Y' `9 ?/ A! v) G3 @
www.uli.org or www.pwc.com/imre.7 b9 Q4 }9 _) s8 A" Z0 |
0 c% U+ C$ R7 r& t About PricewaterhouseCoopers
3 v4 c* `1 O. a4 |6 L! x, }& n( v1 t& q* B8 M: _5 {
PricewaterhouseCoopers (www.pwc.com) provides industry-focused assurance,7 ~% h# f) a) t+ F3 N
tax and advisory services to build public trust and enhance value for its6 t; D1 g7 b! H( t4 d8 p
clients and their stakeholders. More than 140,000 people in 149 countries, A3 a* y+ b0 h' \. ~( x7 L4 B( \
across our network share their thinking, experience and solutions to develop- i' t, E8 g1 y
fresh perspectives and practical advice. Now celebrating 100 years of/ c' D& V+ g& @% l4 b% A& |
excellence in Canada, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP (www.pwc.com/ca) and its
2 \7 F5 t4 m+ v& I7 g3 Xrelated entities have more than 5,200 partners and staff in offices across the! s- Z6 X H* A C9 [2 f! x0 e
country.
& V9 F# m) D/ Q! A "PricewaterhouseCoopers" refers to PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, an Ontario
0 f9 s0 g! U6 C% P% P& X5 g( z+ plimited liability partnership, or, as the context requires, the: A( X0 }' r0 c7 e3 y7 J) Y
PricewaterhouseCoopers global network or other member firms of the network,
9 M+ O& L2 V4 p9 p* z# e, f2 ]each of which is a separate and independent legal entity.' c% v& Y$ S1 T8 \! _1 R
6 o" }+ u" Z- h" e$ {' C+ e0 L About the Urban Land Institute
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) f9 R, Y( n0 O _0 A0 _# s; x The Urban Land Institute (www.uli.org) is a nonprofit education and5 Y' X( o3 Z: Z* @4 t, M) \0 C$ C
research institute supported by its members. Its mission is to provide: @' t8 v' x6 v" P" B7 b+ T( p% @
leadership in the responsible use of land and in sustaining and creating
( S: y4 t4 F: V0 z2 @- uthriving communities worldwide. Established in 1936, the Institute has more
) o. r5 Z- e, [than 38,000 members representing all aspects of land use and development
! H" z. k* m2 {$ bdisciplines.
- L# X- t8 o! S7 L0 r8 T2 j' w The Urban Land Institute is an active and growing organization in Canada.. m' T; y" r! ^5 i* y, r+ \, H
With nearly 700 members across the country, Canada's first ULI District5 v0 @) @5 w3 U; ^( G9 X: Q0 }
Council was established in Toronto in 2005 and a second District Council is5 w" J( K4 j$ D% ^- [ Z/ F
now being formed in British Columbia. The Toronto District Council will be2 } P- V8 w3 I7 w+ X
hosting a special event on Emerging Trends in Real Estate on November 20th," d& `; N A6 n+ [$ z, T
2007, featuring Jonathan Miller, the principal author of the report, Blake/ J1 @8 B) l9 C* N( T& \& I! g1 ^% S6 @
Hutcheson, President of CB Richard Ellis Canada Ltd., and George Carras,
1 i: \6 F" ?- L& l+ r `7 k4 BPresident of RealNet Canada Inc. For more information on this event, please3 W, F. r Z2 u7 b* p. l' {! Z7 h
call the Toronto District Council Coordinator at (647) 258-0017, or look on
5 b N/ \: L) k% Z2 e- Sthe web at www.uli.org/events/index.cfm?id=3066.. \! T: y0 r/ ^6 }1 q6 K
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" E1 l+ F7 y3 c o+ R" m) h* V; {7 Y# n; v. C7 t& }
For further information: Carolyn Forest, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP,* _1 b! F; a& ~' T
(416) 814-5730, carolyn.forest@ca.pwc.com/ |$ [/ C4 t6 e" o, d3 \- z
http://www.newswire.ca/en/releas ... r2007/05/c4080.html+ J1 z6 d- w( n# r
v+ c- [! K# Q' ?6 Q: f( s
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