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Attention Real Estate Reporters:
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Despite US housing woes Canadian real estate remains upbeat
: i+ @; O' @# D0 s* M6 p TORONTO, Nov. 5 /CNW/ - Leading real estate experts are predicting the US. J3 k7 i) U' A
commercial real estate market will slow in 2008 and follow a similar pattern. f* D7 r T' g) ]/ p5 W6 _
as the current residential market. However, according to the annual Emerging6 J& V3 `( | Y
Trends in Real Estate 2008 report, released by PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC)
, p% C- E' b; `, A5 U( fand the Urban Land Institute (ULI), their Canadian counterparts are much more
& L6 S" L" C6 z0 jupbeat.' k+ {3 }% l4 C q1 U( B, k9 e* I
Now in its 29th year, Emerging Trends is the oldest, most highly regarded
5 z4 t0 k+ G- h3 i* Wannual industry outlook for the real estate industry. The report reflects% U C: N, u/ O! f+ X+ g
interviews with and surveys of more than 600 of the industry's leading real
+ J |# Y5 s5 c1 L' y% R$ T1 kestate experts, including investors, developers, property company
' r. S: p5 _6 H3 zrepresentatives, lenders, brokers and consultants in both Canada and the US.: U( x% l% |; `8 c! W% Z# U- X
Other versions of this report are conducted in countries around the world, O, \2 { {% s- ~. R
including Asia Pacific and Europe.
% m4 O+ R+ B& T+ b/ u! P- n According to Chris Potter, PwC partner and leader of the firm's Canadian9 s1 o4 ~( _) j! _
Real Estate Tax practice, Canada benefits from a more conservative investment* ]4 I* s. B# e# i
environment than the US. "In Canada, institution-dominated markets appear to4 f" G& ]. u5 K5 M8 }7 f
be avoiding 'transaction mania', but real estate values have reached record
+ R# \& e0 a1 p7 Phighs and a strong economy has accelerated tenant demand for space."1 X" K; u8 c6 i8 W" K
According to American respondents, a healthy correction south of the& {7 B* a; C. G9 F
border will likely bypass long-term investors but penalize late-to-the-game
3 f% @. }2 E' f: r. ]speculators and overleveraged buyers. Canadian respondents to the survey
{* P2 e) z2 Fremain positive about sidestepping any serious impacts of this possible US" N% G1 y1 M8 E3 f3 e2 Z
correction. Close to 36% view their prospects for profitability in 2008 to be
! G' d \: O+ ?" r8 Svery good and a further 22.4% say they're excellent.
6 j6 S/ L$ E; q The strongest areas of real estate business activity for Canadian9 V' P5 L. l# o E. d" E
respondents is predicted to be within real estate services, followed by% n1 M3 b7 b5 a6 q
commercial/multifamily development and homebuilding/residential land& c" G7 k- `9 Z8 V) E% G# d
development. All property sectors share positive prospects across the country
& V! }! c7 e+ H, N3 I/ Cespecially industrial and retail with respondents, on average, stating% v3 Y4 V5 p9 H: {: i, H; n* |- ]
development prospects are expected to be modestly good to good. The
% u0 c) @$ A$ L/ dresidential for-sale market is also expected to fair well, but might need to6 Y w- ~3 e7 }5 F
take a breather as homebuilders cannot keep up with the current pace and# Z, {' H4 d, n
single-family housing looks overpriced.3 a. z4 b% H+ N5 I+ G
Office stock is seeing limited inventories and dated product fill up with7 w! x& C. R+ ^9 i2 {2 V
tenants. Except for Montreal, where office vacancies are nearing 9%. Canadian
|5 M/ l1 M* C% p. P+ vmetropolitan areas boast below 5% vacancies, and rents have room to push
% e0 O$ x0 k9 c1 }" Jhigher. The survey is also showing that costs and land scarcity is limiting
7 J5 {0 n! k9 P6 e3 n- L: qnew development. Hotel investment and development prospects are modestly good,
. c, e# O: x& ?. zand most respondents rate this sector either a buy or a hold. Rental! Z. ] E: y# S# R' B9 H
apartments are doing well in major cities with high immigration flows. Primary
$ G# E. X/ f' D- V/ C. Kwestern cities - Vancouver, Calgary, and Edmonton - are veering toward housing
) M6 J6 E; v3 Ashortages as workers, attracted by a plethora of well-paying jobs, pour into
, L, T" x# N- c' f/ x7 j' zthe energy zone. Apartment occupancies are soaring in these areas. Development
0 w3 D: ^+ R7 rin other regions remains difficult because of costs and land scarcity.9 f4 b% e1 O0 e
# A# x% S0 g9 G5 l" V8 I$ n2 ?) x& o8 p Canadian Markets to Watch, q3 T6 R) `5 O+ c4 C
( T# p' T o9 q: c The report comments on how Canadians like to live and work in central
5 N; l/ @3 w6 y1 A( }cities, as long as they can afford it. If housing is too pricey in 24-hour
* f+ n# s" N% n6 v+ Cneighbourhoods, people move to inner-ring suburbs or beyond and commute back2 { s K5 y' G* C- P2 K' S" @
into the cores. Investors, especially the institutions, are concentrated in, d$ Q! G, H- I0 L
downtown areas too. Planners and developers focus on infill and more vertical
! o% R6 Q# |: U8 _9 Vprojects, which reinforce the urban cores. The hot-growth energy cities out
' I" d; @9 m: lwest - Calgary and Edmonton - score the highest ratings for investment
+ ^ o F- U/ J% Cprospects, development, and for-sale housing, although it is not certain* e5 L" ?% D9 n/ b, F/ b3 m
whether the recent announcements on royalties will have any effect on this.
; W/ P, s; z0 j6 C$ a5 SToronto, Canada's premier global pathway city, and Vancouver also have high/ j: j! [( B) h
ratings. Ottawa and Montreal follow, with Halifax lagging.
4 n! P9 R4 c- t0 k" b" l: C! X) A4 i
Calgary/Edmonton4 M% Q7 k8 N' g) `+ q; t$ I) V
5 T6 z% X) i2 Q: ~" [ Calgary is the Canada's "resource" capital and North America's number-one3 x2 O8 M1 @" ^# C8 l3 m
boomtown. Survey respondents foresee strong buys for all sectors: 53.5% give a. {& z7 }$ ?2 Q9 a
buy recommendation for Hotel Property, 52.8% for Industrial/Distribution,2 S/ r4 Q8 K8 W* C
48.1% for Retail and Apartment Residential and 44.6% for Office Property.' `4 X; w+ H; j ^; K2 b3 `9 b- W
Furthermore, on average the majority of respondents see Calgary For-Sale
2 P$ ^1 {) H1 F: C; zHomebuilding prospects as very good. Edmonton is closely mimicking the- z/ P) d; C' X+ K+ L
Calgary-style growth wave and as long as demand for energy resources stays7 |' |( ]' ]; [* z& K$ X/ `1 S8 B1 A4 E
strong, this market will continue to do well.
: \. Z" X( f @3 w: i4 v
, r2 |7 w; E# b# U5 P3 X# ?: k; n Vancouver
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3 m1 B# d" @" k8 _. F) a7 w; P Vancouver's diversified economy is roaring, the mining industry is
2 i/ T* L( I" _5 C5 Kbooming and the city provides a large port and a high-tech center. Outrageous
! D1 B3 m9 {& oreal estate prices frustrate homebuyers and commercial investors and the
( {# n! a8 R! ]* |: M8 w Jmarket is extremely hard to crack. The 2010 Winter Olympic Games is also a, a2 j) m8 u L5 @% i' V' D
growth driver and accordingly 44.7% of respondents give Vancouver a buy
7 I7 |: Q, g+ i8 G) V3 Grecommendation for Hotel Property. A further 43.5% give a buy Retail, 41.3%
- e) \3 ~4 z2 q ^5 H7 y# E3 Y" @for Industrial/Distribution and 36.7% for Office Property followed by 34.1%8 t. @9 g6 _, @; f9 h: z. `
for Apartment Residential property. Vancouver also ranks in the good to very
, E" G1 K$ r8 Hgood mark for for-sale homebuilding prospects.
% l" d" v" y/ O3 x. E/ q( T" |) V8 ]2 w% Z! m% I
Toronto
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Toronto ranks as a major global pathway destination, 24-hour city, and
3 p, H: D( t% I2 R. R$ Xmanufacturing hub. Compared with other national financial centers, the city is
, H! B6 b n7 z, G6 S* d8 ?relatively inexpensive. However, the rising loonie is hurting manufacturing6 I" i' d) S5 g" g1 Y
industries, and clouds over the US economy threaten to stall out momentum.1 \: X; |; L1 |3 Y# x
Three new office towers are under construction, adding 3 million new square
5 z; [# }, y4 L# c5 A- I$ Wfeet of office space. Notably, Office (49.1%), Industrial (46.2%) and
1 k5 R% @" }$ C8 D- i& }% o WApartments (40.8%) are given solid buys./ u/ }+ {/ D2 q) Q+ U, J, m
& V/ V/ Z' h" z1 F Montreal
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: n, D; f* o/ L7 T' j Montreal continues to face concerns about market stability and overall
! m& q8 B7 b# R& m" Rgrowth prospects as major companies no longer choose it as a place to set up
7 L% {: X0 o1 c3 g# V" Z4 d$ R" nshop. But, plenty of government offices fill space. Of the larger cities in7 w' R7 _7 b. R, e/ p. r8 k1 `5 h
Canada, Montreal ranks lowest as a "buy" recommendation in all real estate
! e# V5 e$ G8 U+ v. |) x8 X% o6 j5 E1 Ysectors. However, respondents generally rated all Montreal real estate sectors
( C& r! @$ g( W1 u, @higher as a "hold" recommendation.; g, W$ Z- H% x1 t/ V9 u0 a
0 \" S) g0 G; O# O5 l) g
The report notes that best bets for investors for the coming years
5 h8 i( M; h% G* Iinclude a focus on all property sectors in the high-growth western energy
: a7 Z* A, _* \/ R1 L' q D" Fmarkets, hold on central business district office space, develop infill condos( f$ ?! s. I5 \ a; t; M7 l. g
near subways stops in Toronto, buy infill sites wherever you can and invest0 d& B" q" r' |! r4 W4 O
overseas. Potter concludes, "Domestic opportunities are too limited at current3 T: S- s/ O- f: d4 Z
prices."% Y. t( j+ P, Y) W
A copy of Emerging Trends in Real Estate(R) 2008 is available at
: y: I, h- D2 w6 Y3 E* t) @www.uli.org or www.pwc.com/imre.
* w/ f+ s. ?3 P1 L$ }
- [* |: x0 R: Z About PricewaterhouseCoopers8 E% U6 a f9 e. h
) J$ K6 U* j( T3 }- m$ l PricewaterhouseCoopers (www.pwc.com) provides industry-focused assurance,: ?3 t: @/ m) P" z4 H- C7 Y8 ~$ D
tax and advisory services to build public trust and enhance value for its( i* Y9 H+ ^7 p" V
clients and their stakeholders. More than 140,000 people in 149 countries
, e# L6 ^7 U5 w) e4 iacross our network share their thinking, experience and solutions to develop6 E3 ^1 a( [* `$ h; ^
fresh perspectives and practical advice. Now celebrating 100 years of
: J) V# j1 `& i! N) y) sexcellence in Canada, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP (www.pwc.com/ca) and its D8 O/ V6 f! f4 d
related entities have more than 5,200 partners and staff in offices across the
, @4 P( ]' h1 \" L# d+ O+ Ycountry.
; t$ E0 p$ M# d6 v2 P0 |: F: m "PricewaterhouseCoopers" refers to PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, an Ontario9 V( F1 i/ H1 o/ L9 _
limited liability partnership, or, as the context requires, the
9 N- T6 [/ I. Y# KPricewaterhouseCoopers global network or other member firms of the network,' K3 ?0 z* i2 f7 ]6 o& u
each of which is a separate and independent legal entity.. g1 T7 [2 H, y0 d
/ I9 a/ W$ ?( V5 D, x( T, v5 ]! I
About the Urban Land Institute
2 ?4 ^/ U! Y1 [
. h2 B/ F0 M) }" Q) V B& b The Urban Land Institute (www.uli.org) is a nonprofit education and0 r; x3 y3 Y3 {- }, f# K# h
research institute supported by its members. Its mission is to provide
r1 }4 X) H/ k0 w T( rleadership in the responsible use of land and in sustaining and creating
$ g8 G) V# q+ A4 F( T: O- w: Hthriving communities worldwide. Established in 1936, the Institute has more
( M% K8 Y. N- e: x6 dthan 38,000 members representing all aspects of land use and development
! j7 L1 P2 c+ j+ k, X$ ?4 ldisciplines.
, ?& o0 V% T0 U The Urban Land Institute is an active and growing organization in Canada.* ^- ^, n1 c6 F) W' l9 \4 Y
With nearly 700 members across the country, Canada's first ULI District; d+ q/ c" L3 X- W% l& N
Council was established in Toronto in 2005 and a second District Council is
0 ^: a4 x0 C5 N$ wnow being formed in British Columbia. The Toronto District Council will be2 ^1 o2 E; X9 P: G5 }
hosting a special event on Emerging Trends in Real Estate on November 20th,7 A8 A" ^5 W6 U' L; k
2007, featuring Jonathan Miller, the principal author of the report, Blake3 F; T2 j: g/ v4 B
Hutcheson, President of CB Richard Ellis Canada Ltd., and George Carras,. ^% X$ t% y% q0 }; B7 n1 @
President of RealNet Canada Inc. For more information on this event, please
+ b& y: P% F3 d" Q5 r( Dcall the Toronto District Council Coordinator at (647) 258-0017, or look on
6 p$ h% e! u. N, A$ Q+ i+ Cthe web at www.uli.org/events/index.cfm?id=3066.
, }0 j9 ?9 C3 B/ ~: F* |9 M
& w4 G( |* D' j4 s7 S% H. H4 s3 S& N( b7 r$ ^5 A
( [$ K0 U0 J) n8 F9 |; z2 gFor further information: Carolyn Forest, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP,
% p! ~6 U/ j+ M9 ~% F5 I(416) 814-5730, carolyn.forest@ca.pwc.com4 }4 E' h& x; F0 ]9 i
http://www.newswire.ca/en/releas ... r2007/05/c4080.html6 `) Q% I) I. R, ], j
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