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Attention Real Estate Reporters:
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% O( |# M4 V5 w4 FDespite US housing woes Canadian real estate remains upbeat . ?, b, y `* H( d
TORONTO, Nov. 5 /CNW/ - Leading real estate experts are predicting the US) D2 [+ j& d9 S
commercial real estate market will slow in 2008 and follow a similar pattern
* m: a: o+ c5 X; ~6 v5 }as the current residential market. However, according to the annual Emerging" ?8 G: J( c% B5 K& o5 t
Trends in Real Estate 2008 report, released by PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC)
* W: [* [) k$ s. s8 {8 M- w" @and the Urban Land Institute (ULI), their Canadian counterparts are much more
2 d! V2 R5 p6 Z! Q, c4 S, Eupbeat.
, ]" B8 n H5 J3 x" P& N9 f4 U Now in its 29th year, Emerging Trends is the oldest, most highly regarded1 S4 A3 P5 F1 D& Y8 Y$ P& Q
annual industry outlook for the real estate industry. The report reflects$ U9 ]( J7 \8 Y. X$ ]
interviews with and surveys of more than 600 of the industry's leading real
6 {% O, l* A+ e; F9 M* @% Yestate experts, including investors, developers, property company
3 a6 ]2 [" a: \; ]- Lrepresentatives, lenders, brokers and consultants in both Canada and the US.& |; h, R2 s c) a
Other versions of this report are conducted in countries around the world6 {2 R6 U- y5 O9 @4 p
including Asia Pacific and Europe.
$ m& l% ^5 L( ]6 P According to Chris Potter, PwC partner and leader of the firm's Canadian
& K1 G; x# h; Y: m6 t4 f# k0 BReal Estate Tax practice, Canada benefits from a more conservative investment
9 @9 u4 s; {' wenvironment than the US. "In Canada, institution-dominated markets appear to
8 a( Z6 }1 d- \2 U3 b3 Q3 obe avoiding 'transaction mania', but real estate values have reached record
0 K: _+ p! Z8 m d& q4 khighs and a strong economy has accelerated tenant demand for space."
6 [# r q' ^ U" ^/ q( U According to American respondents, a healthy correction south of the& B& s! z& t) y
border will likely bypass long-term investors but penalize late-to-the-game& U# s0 m$ ?& N' }% S0 t5 }& X
speculators and overleveraged buyers. Canadian respondents to the survey9 q) x3 {; H# ~
remain positive about sidestepping any serious impacts of this possible US
* ^; g$ C# F' Jcorrection. Close to 36% view their prospects for profitability in 2008 to be
3 R8 J6 k( \1 p! t9 Bvery good and a further 22.4% say they're excellent.
" _ w w6 C) K: J! n The strongest areas of real estate business activity for Canadian" I) C! A% I3 b- l& f( g9 Z9 \% w6 b
respondents is predicted to be within real estate services, followed by7 l) {2 ~& F7 Z
commercial/multifamily development and homebuilding/residential land
6 g# B/ _, h4 `- d/ vdevelopment. All property sectors share positive prospects across the country( Y( D' [) ]" _) ~
especially industrial and retail with respondents, on average, stating
u( t" A% [6 L% g9 y. _0 sdevelopment prospects are expected to be modestly good to good. The
4 b3 j/ v6 ]! o% Aresidential for-sale market is also expected to fair well, but might need to: W$ `! ~7 t& W
take a breather as homebuilders cannot keep up with the current pace and2 {/ ?. v. S( {. a
single-family housing looks overpriced.+ O: C/ Y9 W- U& a6 u+ g
Office stock is seeing limited inventories and dated product fill up with
% b6 d7 I# O& R" d7 g% a4 @* p5 r/ btenants. Except for Montreal, where office vacancies are nearing 9%. Canadian* K6 n1 \1 G) H# n9 |" K1 l
metropolitan areas boast below 5% vacancies, and rents have room to push t4 [6 l! @5 S9 L- f& P
higher. The survey is also showing that costs and land scarcity is limiting) A2 U8 p5 z7 n6 s/ m6 p
new development. Hotel investment and development prospects are modestly good,
0 ^8 Z# |4 A' _8 u5 E p3 i) Vand most respondents rate this sector either a buy or a hold. Rental: J. K8 C( [3 E8 e( ~( S# m
apartments are doing well in major cities with high immigration flows. Primary
) s5 O6 l: O" ^( o) A% jwestern cities - Vancouver, Calgary, and Edmonton - are veering toward housing
! b! l- C6 B6 b! sshortages as workers, attracted by a plethora of well-paying jobs, pour into1 p2 Z1 A% [1 H k5 ]
the energy zone. Apartment occupancies are soaring in these areas. Development
( w: }! N5 O$ K7 z7 C9 Z7 {- ]; Iin other regions remains difficult because of costs and land scarcity.
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Canadian Markets to Watch+ z9 l& K4 B& x t7 T$ N
6 B7 U, R- F' R+ d The report comments on how Canadians like to live and work in central
; z1 { L% E3 V1 \( W, r. Dcities, as long as they can afford it. If housing is too pricey in 24-hour4 e& N& q1 Y c0 s9 z H6 L
neighbourhoods, people move to inner-ring suburbs or beyond and commute back
* U% u- v: M8 C; xinto the cores. Investors, especially the institutions, are concentrated in$ ~. ~) {7 Y, ?! e) t6 e$ X7 z& {
downtown areas too. Planners and developers focus on infill and more vertical/ B2 P) V* b( B! W) s
projects, which reinforce the urban cores. The hot-growth energy cities out( Y) v$ p1 A. h9 Q; ^
west - Calgary and Edmonton - score the highest ratings for investment
% h0 b5 T/ O3 M6 G7 ^prospects, development, and for-sale housing, although it is not certain2 I! f* s' _( |8 K! W5 Y4 k; R' Z* H
whether the recent announcements on royalties will have any effect on this.
1 }4 F1 @7 m: _3 GToronto, Canada's premier global pathway city, and Vancouver also have high
* D @! r9 |$ t9 Z. I# nratings. Ottawa and Montreal follow, with Halifax lagging.4 x# W, s5 }9 ~# L) G, R# @
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Calgary/Edmonton/ s: ]9 `- W% b2 u$ W3 L2 r7 o
, C5 q' _% Y4 Q! K7 k/ B3 i/ Z Calgary is the Canada's "resource" capital and North America's number-one R8 B5 R' D/ ~! x$ t
boomtown. Survey respondents foresee strong buys for all sectors: 53.5% give a, X6 z$ y- c8 G# T% Z% s
buy recommendation for Hotel Property, 52.8% for Industrial/Distribution,7 D/ V' U4 D( Q% K- c3 n$ w
48.1% for Retail and Apartment Residential and 44.6% for Office Property.
# Y/ \1 i! \" z+ PFurthermore, on average the majority of respondents see Calgary For-Sale
) |# f, r4 m0 v/ K% ~Homebuilding prospects as very good. Edmonton is closely mimicking the
0 k; X* P2 c- k( l; W; iCalgary-style growth wave and as long as demand for energy resources stays
- M: \/ l- }/ g$ j7 c. xstrong, this market will continue to do well.
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Vancouver3 C4 N) F B, G! {
6 j$ [$ s- R' C7 |, Z" i Vancouver's diversified economy is roaring, the mining industry is! c1 j0 Y2 |; g B* F3 c5 V
booming and the city provides a large port and a high-tech center. Outrageous6 n0 K, @3 O' y2 n2 ^# N+ N: d
real estate prices frustrate homebuyers and commercial investors and the
- B+ i) Y& m$ D0 I5 Tmarket is extremely hard to crack. The 2010 Winter Olympic Games is also a/ U* V9 ]8 P0 m, B
growth driver and accordingly 44.7% of respondents give Vancouver a buy
9 @* N) j7 V+ c4 X! X$ A6 urecommendation for Hotel Property. A further 43.5% give a buy Retail, 41.3%
/ e2 \* ^( o; H/ Zfor Industrial/Distribution and 36.7% for Office Property followed by 34.1%
) v; u0 C9 C1 p- c7 @. b! N% Ffor Apartment Residential property. Vancouver also ranks in the good to very
( q( z8 I4 p! [8 `; tgood mark for for-sale homebuilding prospects.# `2 ^! V" \ w3 v) b! S8 s
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Toronto
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/ ^( w8 r: l! A3 ~8 O& A8 |* D( w Toronto ranks as a major global pathway destination, 24-hour city, and6 w4 P7 @9 T5 b E k
manufacturing hub. Compared with other national financial centers, the city is/ F h b! q" K/ D$ I
relatively inexpensive. However, the rising loonie is hurting manufacturing
# g( k; O; ~: r/ S6 |industries, and clouds over the US economy threaten to stall out momentum.$ B% X9 H' `9 t8 F4 y" z# i
Three new office towers are under construction, adding 3 million new square% ?+ f: P3 \$ m3 `4 X U
feet of office space. Notably, Office (49.1%), Industrial (46.2%) and
, x7 ]# y' r; wApartments (40.8%) are given solid buys.+ R- I1 v; W; \2 i5 g
0 |. L! L2 B F2 k Montreal
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' u* M" @6 t3 H# l0 j5 o Montreal continues to face concerns about market stability and overall
9 u* }' O2 w9 _growth prospects as major companies no longer choose it as a place to set up7 C# Z4 m/ `# r
shop. But, plenty of government offices fill space. Of the larger cities in# X' t: t; ] J0 t7 O% B
Canada, Montreal ranks lowest as a "buy" recommendation in all real estate
( G: c' Q0 |9 F4 Isectors. However, respondents generally rated all Montreal real estate sectors n, @4 R5 n' X+ r
higher as a "hold" recommendation.) a/ r2 C' H/ r9 u
- O' l+ P; j: j" h7 y, t! b The report notes that best bets for investors for the coming years. r- r6 S- Q) I5 P: l- y
include a focus on all property sectors in the high-growth western energy
o$ m: D) r, e3 Zmarkets, hold on central business district office space, develop infill condos& @' u2 v- S+ X0 m7 a( A
near subways stops in Toronto, buy infill sites wherever you can and invest6 z! e6 I$ K- z9 X, c
overseas. Potter concludes, "Domestic opportunities are too limited at current
9 L& _4 Q, I0 S+ Tprices."
4 i" y+ j& z, X, K/ `1 g A copy of Emerging Trends in Real Estate(R) 2008 is available at
* f6 Q7 S: @" i6 D2 L; v2 n- owww.uli.org or www.pwc.com/imre.
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% m: W" i* F& ~( i! [4 Q1 o; Y* D About PricewaterhouseCoopers
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PricewaterhouseCoopers (www.pwc.com) provides industry-focused assurance,% \3 J- r* c' n$ [$ {2 `) r) z
tax and advisory services to build public trust and enhance value for its
# V% t N( v/ e& Y# G& R% z8 u. vclients and their stakeholders. More than 140,000 people in 149 countries+ \2 i1 x7 b6 ]$ q( w" C
across our network share their thinking, experience and solutions to develop
6 z# z* h) D/ z" j# F0 t0 Mfresh perspectives and practical advice. Now celebrating 100 years of" D. U# i# b! S2 w+ K' _* E+ y
excellence in Canada, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP (www.pwc.com/ca) and its
7 M9 @7 X5 a" d( i7 M+ Rrelated entities have more than 5,200 partners and staff in offices across the% _- S; z; h! M/ Q7 \
country.9 T# B9 f0 K- F1 t$ K5 x4 p5 l
"PricewaterhouseCoopers" refers to PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, an Ontario8 T: m; f" X1 Z9 P
limited liability partnership, or, as the context requires, the4 T8 r2 k" K0 a) h5 ]$ z
PricewaterhouseCoopers global network or other member firms of the network,$ m# h2 z2 R. c" y5 @3 M
each of which is a separate and independent legal entity.
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About the Urban Land Institute
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The Urban Land Institute (www.uli.org) is a nonprofit education and
% o) ^" q2 D1 R2 E4 Presearch institute supported by its members. Its mission is to provide
, V; y8 @9 ], K1 e2 ?leadership in the responsible use of land and in sustaining and creating& R/ c* E* ?9 n" j* W1 t7 Y
thriving communities worldwide. Established in 1936, the Institute has more7 K8 E+ {# L5 S! Y+ p
than 38,000 members representing all aspects of land use and development3 N# l% i, |' j: O' v2 l
disciplines.0 u/ X) x& i0 o2 {, a7 a
The Urban Land Institute is an active and growing organization in Canada. d5 {! a8 V q- `: y
With nearly 700 members across the country, Canada's first ULI District
4 @/ V1 {8 o& D# WCouncil was established in Toronto in 2005 and a second District Council is! i, K" _0 }1 y0 ~/ S7 L6 \+ F, Q
now being formed in British Columbia. The Toronto District Council will be/ N! u: `2 j: ~) u
hosting a special event on Emerging Trends in Real Estate on November 20th,* [7 y# W. [) H3 a8 l
2007, featuring Jonathan Miller, the principal author of the report, Blake
$ x9 O5 O) V# z. kHutcheson, President of CB Richard Ellis Canada Ltd., and George Carras,8 h% b8 a; I% e8 U9 {& _0 }
President of RealNet Canada Inc. For more information on this event, please0 ^1 k0 ?$ l- i8 i2 N# q" Q
call the Toronto District Council Coordinator at (647) 258-0017, or look on
8 A# Z* E& N! m! D. |the web at www.uli.org/events/index.cfm?id=3066.
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! P! S" [3 C) [* m3 c2 UFor further information: Carolyn Forest, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP,7 t3 Q7 o+ k9 ]. }
(416) 814-5730, carolyn.forest@ca.pwc.com
5 ]) J2 c- V2 p7 ]$ dhttp://www.newswire.ca/en/releas ... r2007/05/c4080.html9 C8 @' D9 p1 @- W1 P4 c
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