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Attention Real Estate Reporters:
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Despite US housing woes Canadian real estate remains upbeat , U1 [5 D# i; [& J2 F9 p
TORONTO, Nov. 5 /CNW/ - Leading real estate experts are predicting the US& F/ E# q3 p# d4 h; c; G- D
commercial real estate market will slow in 2008 and follow a similar pattern
% t' u' r i2 eas the current residential market. However, according to the annual Emerging
+ p4 \( @& ^& MTrends in Real Estate 2008 report, released by PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC)
- w' X0 O! f& M5 x7 P/ aand the Urban Land Institute (ULI), their Canadian counterparts are much more
" |. Z- S/ n# T( L3 v; pupbeat.1 I, x. O; W6 ]; C* ~1 |
Now in its 29th year, Emerging Trends is the oldest, most highly regarded
" `( p: W3 x) A2 e' P" |) y: A/ m# Bannual industry outlook for the real estate industry. The report reflects' D- e# A6 i* u% ?
interviews with and surveys of more than 600 of the industry's leading real
g+ j7 Y g/ g+ |1 n- hestate experts, including investors, developers, property company: N# ^8 `/ n$ J6 o9 J! o$ A
representatives, lenders, brokers and consultants in both Canada and the US.3 b3 X6 h, M5 W2 F; t B) w+ V
Other versions of this report are conducted in countries around the world
& U& V1 b) Y& @2 b7 L! [+ `including Asia Pacific and Europe.2 ` r; b2 r4 K' h& |9 n9 b
According to Chris Potter, PwC partner and leader of the firm's Canadian8 [" U( \: k) E, R# O, G
Real Estate Tax practice, Canada benefits from a more conservative investment
( v( D4 g# @9 U! {environment than the US. "In Canada, institution-dominated markets appear to
3 s4 |2 J. w3 h8 | xbe avoiding 'transaction mania', but real estate values have reached record
5 U: r q6 d6 ?# y$ ^highs and a strong economy has accelerated tenant demand for space."' i9 L1 N4 b+ d9 O. |/ C' r+ ?
According to American respondents, a healthy correction south of the
+ T5 ?& }: r- ?7 O9 Iborder will likely bypass long-term investors but penalize late-to-the-game2 ]8 X L8 {& I/ ~3 n" _: B% C
speculators and overleveraged buyers. Canadian respondents to the survey5 @0 l: s; N* |
remain positive about sidestepping any serious impacts of this possible US8 W7 T5 }) j/ J' w0 m1 K x$ V
correction. Close to 36% view their prospects for profitability in 2008 to be
4 X9 O5 E: y' T7 r2 l3 rvery good and a further 22.4% say they're excellent.' E" a$ x: V# ? [* b( G
The strongest areas of real estate business activity for Canadian
4 }9 H9 E* u+ J& arespondents is predicted to be within real estate services, followed by
+ v. U+ ^/ Z- C2 wcommercial/multifamily development and homebuilding/residential land# l3 O1 f0 C, t0 Y, \2 X2 d
development. All property sectors share positive prospects across the country: @' g# q O f# v# c2 l+ {
especially industrial and retail with respondents, on average, stating6 y, k4 ^% z# t/ s5 b2 I0 z3 X
development prospects are expected to be modestly good to good. The9 Y- t3 Y; S3 y8 h- a: ]
residential for-sale market is also expected to fair well, but might need to
) k6 Z; m n; X4 M9 M& D5 `take a breather as homebuilders cannot keep up with the current pace and) S$ k" ^/ x) @8 ?" h
single-family housing looks overpriced.
; H1 J7 T# m0 x- O# c- z Office stock is seeing limited inventories and dated product fill up with- \$ c6 l$ z1 v* D: [
tenants. Except for Montreal, where office vacancies are nearing 9%. Canadian# g# ^2 b) H7 k! T
metropolitan areas boast below 5% vacancies, and rents have room to push
- ~& u& |- g, I. ihigher. The survey is also showing that costs and land scarcity is limiting
$ U3 Y% }3 T+ m8 l9 `$ tnew development. Hotel investment and development prospects are modestly good,
2 K, c/ x) ` yand most respondents rate this sector either a buy or a hold. Rental
5 \4 K- n/ I( xapartments are doing well in major cities with high immigration flows. Primary$ ~1 K3 k! \" \ c6 ?8 s
western cities - Vancouver, Calgary, and Edmonton - are veering toward housing1 P3 @3 q0 H" j
shortages as workers, attracted by a plethora of well-paying jobs, pour into
# r% [" c2 M9 n6 Uthe energy zone. Apartment occupancies are soaring in these areas. Development
9 I% n$ t- ^9 f- d: h6 r% Z5 Nin other regions remains difficult because of costs and land scarcity.
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! Q8 t1 ]3 X; w, ?) g& g Canadian Markets to Watch
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( P+ }5 ~! w! ?+ z! K- M1 f The report comments on how Canadians like to live and work in central
, s3 E8 B5 w4 E. ~3 ocities, as long as they can afford it. If housing is too pricey in 24-hour
& ^ k5 P% ?& h) r3 a* }" s' W* {neighbourhoods, people move to inner-ring suburbs or beyond and commute back
' r w) r3 _! K5 Z$ N9 ?into the cores. Investors, especially the institutions, are concentrated in
7 J! @# m, o6 g; V/ d9 K' u/ fdowntown areas too. Planners and developers focus on infill and more vertical. p6 P- V( T5 X3 _, }0 K
projects, which reinforce the urban cores. The hot-growth energy cities out, k0 ?# r6 `% Y$ r" r. ?5 Z) W
west - Calgary and Edmonton - score the highest ratings for investment& Z- @! g2 i" j
prospects, development, and for-sale housing, although it is not certain' `, U6 r( `2 X5 }9 N8 c
whether the recent announcements on royalties will have any effect on this.
0 v. K/ T, V2 [. h+ R3 J0 N. JToronto, Canada's premier global pathway city, and Vancouver also have high5 D7 j; ?, R# e
ratings. Ottawa and Montreal follow, with Halifax lagging.- j+ p) x; f6 G8 E7 T8 H
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Calgary/Edmonton
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Calgary is the Canada's "resource" capital and North America's number-one2 Z; X& G0 [; ~; L2 ?/ `
boomtown. Survey respondents foresee strong buys for all sectors: 53.5% give a
0 M, E1 f/ S. B$ h0 S8 t/ {& pbuy recommendation for Hotel Property, 52.8% for Industrial/Distribution,, U7 a/ {0 R, J" b
48.1% for Retail and Apartment Residential and 44.6% for Office Property.' i9 Q8 I$ t2 U" o
Furthermore, on average the majority of respondents see Calgary For-Sale
* N* }0 I9 F# UHomebuilding prospects as very good. Edmonton is closely mimicking the: e0 N7 f6 _+ e" ^
Calgary-style growth wave and as long as demand for energy resources stays) N, b5 H% D: Q* P+ u
strong, this market will continue to do well.
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Vancouver
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Vancouver's diversified economy is roaring, the mining industry is5 y- X+ v1 e" e- V0 M
booming and the city provides a large port and a high-tech center. Outrageous
; z$ b/ n4 X# c) H5 w: Nreal estate prices frustrate homebuyers and commercial investors and the
& \ t' D' R. S# d4 N* K' }" y6 ]market is extremely hard to crack. The 2010 Winter Olympic Games is also a, j7 X' S- M( x) F
growth driver and accordingly 44.7% of respondents give Vancouver a buy
8 i9 [& n/ [; f4 c( A8 I. trecommendation for Hotel Property. A further 43.5% give a buy Retail, 41.3%
1 E& l2 X3 u( m! e4 \for Industrial/Distribution and 36.7% for Office Property followed by 34.1%
/ _1 N, b! m! V0 Rfor Apartment Residential property. Vancouver also ranks in the good to very
/ C- A7 y+ b/ _) q; d4 R; d/ I% Kgood mark for for-sale homebuilding prospects.% e2 p+ N: c# K$ ?3 t( D( S
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Toronto6 z1 ]7 R' [' y) R7 M! Y+ f6 K6 E
8 }6 N S) P/ l4 s4 E) U" r* i Toronto ranks as a major global pathway destination, 24-hour city, and6 z) _7 q( L, r! C6 s5 f, _$ C% o
manufacturing hub. Compared with other national financial centers, the city is' b9 h8 G6 W% E" d7 h* c
relatively inexpensive. However, the rising loonie is hurting manufacturing# }( v8 b) N: h, u: r( R+ m3 D
industries, and clouds over the US economy threaten to stall out momentum.; W; T" v: E- e: z
Three new office towers are under construction, adding 3 million new square1 u5 C# E8 J, F" _
feet of office space. Notably, Office (49.1%), Industrial (46.2%) and. Y1 W) N I, g3 C9 o# L
Apartments (40.8%) are given solid buys.
. K3 w; `2 ^- x5 D( O- E' x) l3 ~; v+ L: u b
Montreal4 q/ A( C+ h' L
4 _5 H' h! d, D Montreal continues to face concerns about market stability and overall# X' M' i# o5 I
growth prospects as major companies no longer choose it as a place to set up
. O; d+ t& z& V7 d$ S# v# Cshop. But, plenty of government offices fill space. Of the larger cities in: A% I" U2 k) m8 r& |
Canada, Montreal ranks lowest as a "buy" recommendation in all real estate
" Y3 j0 |; |4 j3 @; B$ ysectors. However, respondents generally rated all Montreal real estate sectors8 ?# g. ~1 V& M F4 v
higher as a "hold" recommendation.
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The report notes that best bets for investors for the coming years
# C) V: V6 \0 O* Linclude a focus on all property sectors in the high-growth western energy
8 Y9 ^/ z9 L2 z# e( Gmarkets, hold on central business district office space, develop infill condos. }0 g$ |: j0 t
near subways stops in Toronto, buy infill sites wherever you can and invest
) A$ m- B* r( ? t1 ^: ooverseas. Potter concludes, "Domestic opportunities are too limited at current0 L$ b8 e0 R* I9 }
prices."
: _2 J+ g% q- H+ X/ I/ V' O' w1 Q" u A copy of Emerging Trends in Real Estate(R) 2008 is available at4 F/ b- P2 J6 x6 q! j
www.uli.org or www.pwc.com/imre. J- A. p& z, J4 _. |% W
' n" y9 l- w0 W( u9 W! Q About PricewaterhouseCoopers* d9 a/ k$ L; M0 o, g
- e j& u/ U* a/ d( ] PricewaterhouseCoopers (www.pwc.com) provides industry-focused assurance,
1 j/ U' v, `9 N; I7 Otax and advisory services to build public trust and enhance value for its. S4 t# a9 K: ~* M
clients and their stakeholders. More than 140,000 people in 149 countries
3 a. d3 y+ |" b* u" Jacross our network share their thinking, experience and solutions to develop" I' L, O& n7 t: j& e
fresh perspectives and practical advice. Now celebrating 100 years of
" M8 J |3 Y( M9 c4 N. P: Texcellence in Canada, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP (www.pwc.com/ca) and its
* e2 x4 J- t% P0 ?& B- G/ vrelated entities have more than 5,200 partners and staff in offices across the
- M2 g i; P8 r+ C' ecountry.
! C9 i& W9 C6 y% u; m "PricewaterhouseCoopers" refers to PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, an Ontario. C" w2 ^# Z5 S) v T* x( P1 H1 Q
limited liability partnership, or, as the context requires, the
$ Q$ f: \+ }/ _9 G; f& ?PricewaterhouseCoopers global network or other member firms of the network,
- _% I9 E3 A3 Y$ M, N, b! |1 p0 D% Heach of which is a separate and independent legal entity.
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About the Urban Land Institute% s9 m( ~/ J: H/ @6 ]
; R( {* z4 I$ S5 w; u" A: W. _ The Urban Land Institute (www.uli.org) is a nonprofit education and
' @7 O8 ~1 D! ~1 S/ Jresearch institute supported by its members. Its mission is to provide0 w8 V; F1 e* x5 d1 a7 M
leadership in the responsible use of land and in sustaining and creating
* j# Q2 j+ ?& X; Ethriving communities worldwide. Established in 1936, the Institute has more
' ?% P7 x+ l) Z( v, C& e& Wthan 38,000 members representing all aspects of land use and development
' M4 c8 a" z4 }' ?+ S) v8 Cdisciplines.
# a* H. h8 |& O' f# \& X6 Q The Urban Land Institute is an active and growing organization in Canada.$ N: w2 w/ E0 F3 N6 n
With nearly 700 members across the country, Canada's first ULI District' z! O: {$ J: \/ E* O
Council was established in Toronto in 2005 and a second District Council is
! S. G1 V2 H% \% wnow being formed in British Columbia. The Toronto District Council will be
8 m/ T# j( q& B S, |% p) ~hosting a special event on Emerging Trends in Real Estate on November 20th,9 d( X" e' Z/ ^- R, l# q" _+ D# Y
2007, featuring Jonathan Miller, the principal author of the report, Blake6 W. o# \/ ~+ l. _5 S+ `
Hutcheson, President of CB Richard Ellis Canada Ltd., and George Carras,$ Q! b( u2 y9 |
President of RealNet Canada Inc. For more information on this event, please% y- t1 b3 Y$ ~6 s i
call the Toronto District Council Coordinator at (647) 258-0017, or look on
! P! B- E% {+ k" Q4 C Lthe web at www.uli.org/events/index.cfm?id=3066.
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" I" Z D3 U1 v- K/ y' g5 |' L% A* R. M6 U, h6 F& _
For further information: Carolyn Forest, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP,
& z6 @/ p& f# O(416) 814-5730, carolyn.forest@ca.pwc.com$ W# ]# s' |% `. N7 Q8 X
http://www.newswire.ca/en/releas ... r2007/05/c4080.html
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