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Attention Real Estate Reporters: 2 d$ R$ J9 M" W
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Despite US housing woes Canadian real estate remains upbeat * c; o0 V" h' `' `4 n5 @
TORONTO, Nov. 5 /CNW/ - Leading real estate experts are predicting the US$ O0 `) C6 u' ^7 Q$ K! _
commercial real estate market will slow in 2008 and follow a similar pattern& J& n( ]" o& w+ z/ D: }% V3 H
as the current residential market. However, according to the annual Emerging9 x1 O3 N. B6 A7 u
Trends in Real Estate 2008 report, released by PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC)
; O# I+ P) M1 Tand the Urban Land Institute (ULI), their Canadian counterparts are much more! i, f8 \0 R- u2 q* B3 g1 t5 Z$ K
upbeat.) m' D8 I. @/ Y3 y: U
Now in its 29th year, Emerging Trends is the oldest, most highly regarded2 v; i# o( G2 k+ w5 v7 q( c8 q
annual industry outlook for the real estate industry. The report reflects6 h9 ]9 x3 x9 O
interviews with and surveys of more than 600 of the industry's leading real
: b' M0 t3 I. _8 ?: |' jestate experts, including investors, developers, property company! B# Y) J: K2 H+ X8 p
representatives, lenders, brokers and consultants in both Canada and the US.# U" q! s8 Q7 U$ {* n' u6 v5 `% r
Other versions of this report are conducted in countries around the world+ Y2 j& L' s3 @! Y
including Asia Pacific and Europe.
' H$ X h$ J3 T/ R% q9 ~- w According to Chris Potter, PwC partner and leader of the firm's Canadian
0 ?* D% j/ z3 E& T. @2 l' _1 p. YReal Estate Tax practice, Canada benefits from a more conservative investment
$ ^' G& I/ @3 a2 \environment than the US. "In Canada, institution-dominated markets appear to6 w5 u% t' O# E4 r# c
be avoiding 'transaction mania', but real estate values have reached record
P) R |. p! T# O6 S5 Vhighs and a strong economy has accelerated tenant demand for space."
& G& S6 e6 l- V& H, R According to American respondents, a healthy correction south of the
. S* C( \& T5 R# w% p; M. Rborder will likely bypass long-term investors but penalize late-to-the-game6 B) K# m& q3 }, u0 D0 b
speculators and overleveraged buyers. Canadian respondents to the survey7 i/ a! V( v8 [; O4 m/ {; N9 c
remain positive about sidestepping any serious impacts of this possible US
0 X; f1 q/ _9 wcorrection. Close to 36% view their prospects for profitability in 2008 to be& {4 I, v; Y# t5 v d) X, ~
very good and a further 22.4% say they're excellent.
% Y% n, f3 _7 w# M The strongest areas of real estate business activity for Canadian
1 H$ M% h0 g0 U+ Arespondents is predicted to be within real estate services, followed by
& e I( H4 o* Zcommercial/multifamily development and homebuilding/residential land' _# t9 |4 S# o6 \6 Q# ~& [
development. All property sectors share positive prospects across the country( m+ ~( k+ H$ H; H9 O/ Q: M
especially industrial and retail with respondents, on average, stating
% I. V4 P; | I1 J, ldevelopment prospects are expected to be modestly good to good. The
2 w$ p( ~- x9 w. e( s# @9 @% Aresidential for-sale market is also expected to fair well, but might need to
8 f$ ]" g) h }: e9 c2 otake a breather as homebuilders cannot keep up with the current pace and6 V- v1 |5 H9 j. i% z" J! e r
single-family housing looks overpriced.
3 t! j# U: ?! L. p# ]) @; }+ _- }& z Office stock is seeing limited inventories and dated product fill up with
" }; o; x, [1 r- g; U7 r( Ktenants. Except for Montreal, where office vacancies are nearing 9%. Canadian6 V; [$ d9 \+ z7 r! Q; K
metropolitan areas boast below 5% vacancies, and rents have room to push
3 O( v& m, H6 `" o2 qhigher. The survey is also showing that costs and land scarcity is limiting! ^* P" x7 S+ X8 o9 `. V; Z9 S, H
new development. Hotel investment and development prospects are modestly good,: ^1 z% G# ~% l$ j. d1 N
and most respondents rate this sector either a buy or a hold. Rental
1 |6 z. T/ Q8 ?+ Rapartments are doing well in major cities with high immigration flows. Primary
+ Y8 ~# l( H* x" Z5 E* ewestern cities - Vancouver, Calgary, and Edmonton - are veering toward housing$ k1 }( a: q6 x. h; w6 |
shortages as workers, attracted by a plethora of well-paying jobs, pour into) q# `7 n# ?8 |# k4 A8 [
the energy zone. Apartment occupancies are soaring in these areas. Development
: Z- l$ v9 {" Tin other regions remains difficult because of costs and land scarcity./ U, n# B7 z- ~
: P" V' S# G/ ] Canadian Markets to Watch
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The report comments on how Canadians like to live and work in central6 p: i6 q+ T x' X8 B- B/ X% S
cities, as long as they can afford it. If housing is too pricey in 24-hour
3 {; [* E2 d* ?3 n) B! h* M' sneighbourhoods, people move to inner-ring suburbs or beyond and commute back
6 m! y L0 g- j6 \# W/ ~ Y e# rinto the cores. Investors, especially the institutions, are concentrated in% {5 O) k; o( @/ S( x
downtown areas too. Planners and developers focus on infill and more vertical: V: \% H* m. {6 h, ?! ?4 K
projects, which reinforce the urban cores. The hot-growth energy cities out
k5 C2 i6 s0 ]+ M' c: ewest - Calgary and Edmonton - score the highest ratings for investment" q% x% f+ R# {' ^7 l
prospects, development, and for-sale housing, although it is not certain$ M- h) M2 e" g J0 X4 p2 p1 |4 Y1 m. z
whether the recent announcements on royalties will have any effect on this.
+ ?/ D/ ]3 D* U% JToronto, Canada's premier global pathway city, and Vancouver also have high
* u P: u5 Z- `# P1 Sratings. Ottawa and Montreal follow, with Halifax lagging.4 Y- b3 L# H7 n1 Z( L- H0 l
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Calgary/Edmonton0 G0 P! f- e) h9 S( J2 n) g
* J2 U( J: [: C) @# r4 Q G' @: n Calgary is the Canada's "resource" capital and North America's number-one* Y; v/ T* Q5 s4 A# A& E3 I1 s9 K
boomtown. Survey respondents foresee strong buys for all sectors: 53.5% give a
+ E9 T" O( m. ?3 S9 Ebuy recommendation for Hotel Property, 52.8% for Industrial/Distribution,9 W$ z/ e& r; J" R4 s) V
48.1% for Retail and Apartment Residential and 44.6% for Office Property. H8 t$ W( s" a
Furthermore, on average the majority of respondents see Calgary For-Sale4 b2 M8 @7 c8 D/ h/ P( V
Homebuilding prospects as very good. Edmonton is closely mimicking the
6 ], x4 `, W) d7 X$ ?: l7 \Calgary-style growth wave and as long as demand for energy resources stays* W- T7 W' Q7 b9 c: _) e' P
strong, this market will continue to do well.8 n6 ^7 f2 T1 c: Q x! Z3 |
& |: d8 R7 |+ `( S! o: O; b# K, C6 g Vancouver
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6 x& {! S. x# H: C, n' Q, e' ~ Vancouver's diversified economy is roaring, the mining industry is
, k* d& [( I4 u5 `8 |9 Mbooming and the city provides a large port and a high-tech center. Outrageous2 Z9 K& A1 j: m# t2 n
real estate prices frustrate homebuyers and commercial investors and the) k( d/ B2 n' t2 c- g4 c9 h
market is extremely hard to crack. The 2010 Winter Olympic Games is also a+ X/ I0 Y$ l" K a+ R# D" Y
growth driver and accordingly 44.7% of respondents give Vancouver a buy
& o* b5 ^) ^1 k& t, Arecommendation for Hotel Property. A further 43.5% give a buy Retail, 41.3%) t* \* U! i( \. S7 Q
for Industrial/Distribution and 36.7% for Office Property followed by 34.1%
( @/ p9 u- Z2 ?' |( h7 zfor Apartment Residential property. Vancouver also ranks in the good to very! X) n* V( k) x
good mark for for-sale homebuilding prospects.
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Toronto
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Toronto ranks as a major global pathway destination, 24-hour city, and
! I$ A7 m0 }5 m0 R/ M, N4 A5 Jmanufacturing hub. Compared with other national financial centers, the city is
9 D7 ]5 k! a% m. r0 \! krelatively inexpensive. However, the rising loonie is hurting manufacturing
- K. `# D4 \+ h9 Iindustries, and clouds over the US economy threaten to stall out momentum.
& q, a) V* Y6 I( X4 G/ [Three new office towers are under construction, adding 3 million new square
4 y0 c3 f: X/ s5 B A. rfeet of office space. Notably, Office (49.1%), Industrial (46.2%) and9 s; B1 I( K6 A: o
Apartments (40.8%) are given solid buys.+ L( R. q9 I8 Z9 t
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Montreal9 e* E* {. M& ]+ O7 Y4 o# }% d7 h
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Montreal continues to face concerns about market stability and overall+ A( s% i' T+ e
growth prospects as major companies no longer choose it as a place to set up* V6 C* j0 J C8 i% _# [5 N) P U) E
shop. But, plenty of government offices fill space. Of the larger cities in
) x9 r3 X5 z x5 BCanada, Montreal ranks lowest as a "buy" recommendation in all real estate
+ ~& I! m' a3 G& B" h2 o3 Esectors. However, respondents generally rated all Montreal real estate sectors
; s5 H) {% r3 |6 d4 Rhigher as a "hold" recommendation." C/ Z, \. y" o+ P
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The report notes that best bets for investors for the coming years% a9 }% [& g7 q% \* e
include a focus on all property sectors in the high-growth western energy
5 |0 V/ U9 j" s5 n" mmarkets, hold on central business district office space, develop infill condos4 q9 d1 {2 J2 l; x3 V% Q0 S
near subways stops in Toronto, buy infill sites wherever you can and invest
! Q/ a: a k; w* roverseas. Potter concludes, "Domestic opportunities are too limited at current
0 p# O/ ~: E0 o. M9 c. ]prices."2 K/ t" i% c# f l' w0 n) \
A copy of Emerging Trends in Real Estate(R) 2008 is available at
6 M2 U R! o/ X b: pwww.uli.org or www.pwc.com/imre.
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About PricewaterhouseCoopers9 ?8 R5 @! y& U& O* p
* H, t# A" f, y
PricewaterhouseCoopers (www.pwc.com) provides industry-focused assurance,
# N# u5 f% y/ N7 ^tax and advisory services to build public trust and enhance value for its; `5 a8 t X7 i5 R- \7 B5 ~" M
clients and their stakeholders. More than 140,000 people in 149 countries
# B( @ p6 q% racross our network share their thinking, experience and solutions to develop
* |: g" ]4 V( q) }& E( \fresh perspectives and practical advice. Now celebrating 100 years of) f5 P5 {0 @3 l' n. q9 Z4 x
excellence in Canada, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP (www.pwc.com/ca) and its7 J1 m' b9 I: I9 l# {" o8 Z" _8 E! |
related entities have more than 5,200 partners and staff in offices across the
, F$ C2 B, D2 v' m0 v8 c7 Xcountry.( D3 }# r2 V4 M" L2 g
"PricewaterhouseCoopers" refers to PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, an Ontario2 K9 t# G+ v7 T) H0 A: E. j
limited liability partnership, or, as the context requires, the
- f. _6 M) T( K9 Y. o0 b' H y2 _6 |9 RPricewaterhouseCoopers global network or other member firms of the network,
4 V6 k8 q0 [" u' }; W7 [each of which is a separate and independent legal entity.
8 g M4 S5 @; ^3 z7 Q5 B" X" F1 @3 M
About the Urban Land Institute# t+ Y$ h; f4 B3 W
' ]7 v) r9 H* J# V4 ^8 S0 N7 O- Z The Urban Land Institute (www.uli.org) is a nonprofit education and
0 ~ ]. t. N% z1 m" yresearch institute supported by its members. Its mission is to provide2 R8 [2 {5 C& i$ }! y ]( p- P3 A
leadership in the responsible use of land and in sustaining and creating7 A: W) ]% o0 {0 g0 v, C7 `
thriving communities worldwide. Established in 1936, the Institute has more
7 u: B# q. t' e5 ethan 38,000 members representing all aspects of land use and development
5 g. z& ~9 d0 J& m: mdisciplines.) h) z6 M6 R8 \7 F) H" z
The Urban Land Institute is an active and growing organization in Canada.& L* V1 E. x5 z/ m* H ~
With nearly 700 members across the country, Canada's first ULI District: `7 h* S& {5 w- B5 O9 A% G
Council was established in Toronto in 2005 and a second District Council is
) h C+ p8 K; Y# anow being formed in British Columbia. The Toronto District Council will be
% u8 ^3 x: \/ Ahosting a special event on Emerging Trends in Real Estate on November 20th,
! t& a3 i: C' V- k# z" v9 C- i2007, featuring Jonathan Miller, the principal author of the report, Blake
3 g3 T. T3 g& ]$ K! t# K" e' V, FHutcheson, President of CB Richard Ellis Canada Ltd., and George Carras,
6 L( A( ]7 M4 EPresident of RealNet Canada Inc. For more information on this event, please
# ^' I. \8 }5 v) ?4 V& ]. \2 vcall the Toronto District Council Coordinator at (647) 258-0017, or look on
- @4 U" m6 I- I8 I Dthe web at www.uli.org/events/index.cfm?id=3066.
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For further information: Carolyn Forest, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP,+ J9 W& D+ r9 j4 H7 |
(416) 814-5730, carolyn.forest@ca.pwc.com3 R4 K. Z9 o3 ^$ Z+ q$ Y
http://www.newswire.ca/en/releas ... r2007/05/c4080.html& S# n U5 Z9 R
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