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Attention Real Estate Reporters:
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% |$ S- l% M( r, ODespite US housing woes Canadian real estate remains upbeat
; D( Z7 J3 J' p3 O0 \% x+ ^0 ?3 e TORONTO, Nov. 5 /CNW/ - Leading real estate experts are predicting the US
2 H1 J! U' f- O H* l, Icommercial real estate market will slow in 2008 and follow a similar pattern( c0 b) Q1 H! ?& a3 ^' P( B9 ~
as the current residential market. However, according to the annual Emerging
$ V8 R \+ J) |$ a, rTrends in Real Estate 2008 report, released by PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC)% R" s$ Z) ]6 s4 J: @* I
and the Urban Land Institute (ULI), their Canadian counterparts are much more" W. j' A1 `* e& r9 \
upbeat.
9 ~7 h: `* n- U3 T1 F Now in its 29th year, Emerging Trends is the oldest, most highly regarded
0 s, F& @ X7 K5 T3 ?* E) d- yannual industry outlook for the real estate industry. The report reflects
$ _7 i- I8 K; U: S$ w4 Minterviews with and surveys of more than 600 of the industry's leading real5 q* e* a, E' k+ N" {$ j: [0 @6 S
estate experts, including investors, developers, property company* N' M) h% I' M& Q
representatives, lenders, brokers and consultants in both Canada and the US.
7 P+ T0 L- M- iOther versions of this report are conducted in countries around the world
# p1 s8 E$ Y) aincluding Asia Pacific and Europe.
% e9 |+ M" G) B% f, K; p1 e" ^ According to Chris Potter, PwC partner and leader of the firm's Canadian
/ t7 x: Y0 v0 ~% Q: pReal Estate Tax practice, Canada benefits from a more conservative investment% ~2 J P; {) s* d, N
environment than the US. "In Canada, institution-dominated markets appear to% H% W1 u: v" j+ U- V, _( n
be avoiding 'transaction mania', but real estate values have reached record% t" X# Q" [) P( u% O
highs and a strong economy has accelerated tenant demand for space."0 R4 @. N7 S+ S3 O8 B" i3 U: ^ ~
According to American respondents, a healthy correction south of the
3 l- ~2 c3 d( B6 Y, Y6 r' lborder will likely bypass long-term investors but penalize late-to-the-game
- ?6 D/ o4 X r: | Wspeculators and overleveraged buyers. Canadian respondents to the survey9 j, m3 F. V" i' ]5 F, e+ m# A, o
remain positive about sidestepping any serious impacts of this possible US% `2 z4 q( S \
correction. Close to 36% view their prospects for profitability in 2008 to be, H9 h- \! P$ [, f
very good and a further 22.4% say they're excellent.
) b! m& }) J: p6 \ The strongest areas of real estate business activity for Canadian7 H: h5 ~0 E% X& {
respondents is predicted to be within real estate services, followed by5 q9 {3 G2 _/ ^- m$ W0 f( m7 F" K+ s" {
commercial/multifamily development and homebuilding/residential land
! W3 ]/ |) P; O& ^development. All property sectors share positive prospects across the country+ W! y/ a5 Q+ c* t- l- M6 h
especially industrial and retail with respondents, on average, stating
' K/ \+ D2 T7 fdevelopment prospects are expected to be modestly good to good. The
. ^1 {5 C; h1 O0 N, rresidential for-sale market is also expected to fair well, but might need to5 t P# f; Q9 p+ b
take a breather as homebuilders cannot keep up with the current pace and
; w, B; F. \& B; _$ \% jsingle-family housing looks overpriced.
% q9 x2 I& _; d* f Office stock is seeing limited inventories and dated product fill up with
/ h( G1 H1 A5 P) Mtenants. Except for Montreal, where office vacancies are nearing 9%. Canadian
1 |4 p3 R/ j( s6 F6 fmetropolitan areas boast below 5% vacancies, and rents have room to push
( H1 n* K y8 O) z2 Rhigher. The survey is also showing that costs and land scarcity is limiting' {4 { k8 p% z5 D- E/ G1 [
new development. Hotel investment and development prospects are modestly good,
% V* ~, s7 A# D7 I1 W* |3 E& vand most respondents rate this sector either a buy or a hold. Rental6 L! x' w# L7 Z: C" |( V
apartments are doing well in major cities with high immigration flows. Primary
, C" v! w" t- p, G3 }3 Zwestern cities - Vancouver, Calgary, and Edmonton - are veering toward housing R1 H9 u& O7 |; y
shortages as workers, attracted by a plethora of well-paying jobs, pour into
9 s0 ]0 [+ ]6 x4 g: Othe energy zone. Apartment occupancies are soaring in these areas. Development1 [3 N% o( m+ p' v0 C5 U
in other regions remains difficult because of costs and land scarcity.6 G+ P* O9 Y8 F i! g4 X; I
+ y% X# y3 g+ ?8 C Canadian Markets to Watch
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The report comments on how Canadians like to live and work in central/ K4 L" ^0 V8 g$ z8 y# E) K
cities, as long as they can afford it. If housing is too pricey in 24-hour
2 ^6 d! L: G/ q6 {7 b0 jneighbourhoods, people move to inner-ring suburbs or beyond and commute back( a0 z) [1 G# C `
into the cores. Investors, especially the institutions, are concentrated in! h" x0 @7 j4 K4 h+ K8 j
downtown areas too. Planners and developers focus on infill and more vertical
/ \" l, ?. c* W" U: q& lprojects, which reinforce the urban cores. The hot-growth energy cities out
6 F) S/ f3 q+ Z* d8 [$ iwest - Calgary and Edmonton - score the highest ratings for investment8 ]% X. f' {: g! }
prospects, development, and for-sale housing, although it is not certain
& E! g0 v' d9 y' U$ A* Owhether the recent announcements on royalties will have any effect on this.; C( k. h- t3 e$ g+ F, X. E8 A
Toronto, Canada's premier global pathway city, and Vancouver also have high; i% R3 ?+ q: u* [+ Z
ratings. Ottawa and Montreal follow, with Halifax lagging.
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Calgary/Edmonton! r. D0 e3 S6 t( p+ x; S
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Calgary is the Canada's "resource" capital and North America's number-one9 R* |" ^& M% j' F% n
boomtown. Survey respondents foresee strong buys for all sectors: 53.5% give a- j8 h0 ^# Z& G2 Q
buy recommendation for Hotel Property, 52.8% for Industrial/Distribution, l8 j2 g" a1 Y# B, |
48.1% for Retail and Apartment Residential and 44.6% for Office Property.& _" z8 D# R1 m$ {& j/ a3 u( \
Furthermore, on average the majority of respondents see Calgary For-Sale
! k) h" h3 _ Z) |9 G* j6 F/ Q! ?Homebuilding prospects as very good. Edmonton is closely mimicking the( I P0 K/ |! v+ l) n, ?; N( u: R
Calgary-style growth wave and as long as demand for energy resources stays/ l' k" B3 B8 p6 r
strong, this market will continue to do well.
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" K5 ~$ }8 A- I! { Vancouver
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Vancouver's diversified economy is roaring, the mining industry is
4 d3 u, J, ~- n ?: @booming and the city provides a large port and a high-tech center. Outrageous$ K7 V8 M7 X* f4 X' T0 z2 E% Z6 b
real estate prices frustrate homebuyers and commercial investors and the
; q$ n! b( n, ]8 X) nmarket is extremely hard to crack. The 2010 Winter Olympic Games is also a
: y$ m# b3 N- E' r- Ngrowth driver and accordingly 44.7% of respondents give Vancouver a buy
7 d! G- j+ v1 m) S) Yrecommendation for Hotel Property. A further 43.5% give a buy Retail, 41.3%6 s/ z/ q% x$ u6 f+ C% _- a! b
for Industrial/Distribution and 36.7% for Office Property followed by 34.1%3 v! Z8 P6 Z( ?! d" C) t4 K
for Apartment Residential property. Vancouver also ranks in the good to very
- Z" b7 W8 L1 O" V6 ~good mark for for-sale homebuilding prospects.
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Toronto# U/ b8 a. ]% h8 e# w. Y7 i
0 R% C% W6 ~6 S+ u+ q Toronto ranks as a major global pathway destination, 24-hour city, and
7 ]# b, d2 E+ J( [) _manufacturing hub. Compared with other national financial centers, the city is
% ?3 F% J* U" crelatively inexpensive. However, the rising loonie is hurting manufacturing
( Z/ u5 w" D7 V lindustries, and clouds over the US economy threaten to stall out momentum.9 ]; A) b6 P: A4 f- k
Three new office towers are under construction, adding 3 million new square: |( D! J6 w) B& K2 ^
feet of office space. Notably, Office (49.1%), Industrial (46.2%) and
5 ^2 n& s6 M. l/ I& V8 |Apartments (40.8%) are given solid buys.
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2 l, h! r# S5 _$ e. x Montreal9 L0 j: W$ P1 N. V5 Y5 o- n& P
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Montreal continues to face concerns about market stability and overall
; m* Z h& K/ @# M' U3 Vgrowth prospects as major companies no longer choose it as a place to set up
) H4 L1 S7 J; }6 E3 v5 x5 j; ushop. But, plenty of government offices fill space. Of the larger cities in+ f3 K. }3 M0 i, u! C n: ~, W
Canada, Montreal ranks lowest as a "buy" recommendation in all real estate
/ |( C8 d3 @$ g* w$ xsectors. However, respondents generally rated all Montreal real estate sectors3 l8 W6 X) t# \8 p
higher as a "hold" recommendation./ {# j7 ~2 \& h. @# t
* m% n7 |1 s% @% u/ w4 _9 c The report notes that best bets for investors for the coming years2 j5 _7 e/ g( V) |! L7 r) S
include a focus on all property sectors in the high-growth western energy
+ i7 g- b$ x0 h `/ P5 a+ Amarkets, hold on central business district office space, develop infill condos' d5 Q2 R+ g: R5 g+ G+ s" u
near subways stops in Toronto, buy infill sites wherever you can and invest
& @* G$ u2 [7 w Y: x, qoverseas. Potter concludes, "Domestic opportunities are too limited at current
! y% v0 q1 g+ K0 {prices."
4 W7 ~( ]4 b ^( n7 p! F; ^9 h A copy of Emerging Trends in Real Estate(R) 2008 is available at4 s5 X7 F9 a; V: C3 Q
www.uli.org or www.pwc.com/imre.
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3 I9 L4 M! E; e. Y About PricewaterhouseCoopers
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9 o% N2 o) P" q, K5 x PricewaterhouseCoopers (www.pwc.com) provides industry-focused assurance,
) [- n! ^2 `! z9 f* P \1 Ctax and advisory services to build public trust and enhance value for its
) P2 r6 w4 a$ w$ ]7 Q# C2 N) Uclients and their stakeholders. More than 140,000 people in 149 countries
9 q9 @5 j" d5 G, L* D/ H% vacross our network share their thinking, experience and solutions to develop
8 G% s) M9 \- |2 V# Pfresh perspectives and practical advice. Now celebrating 100 years of' z( c& c% X" ]8 M) F
excellence in Canada, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP (www.pwc.com/ca) and its
# q/ }. G* S& C/ rrelated entities have more than 5,200 partners and staff in offices across the
; g1 o; z2 i" K0 qcountry.
7 Y! {6 _8 b; @4 v4 e "PricewaterhouseCoopers" refers to PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, an Ontario! K# k2 h& M8 Y; m7 I
limited liability partnership, or, as the context requires, the7 z1 D z3 ~3 p& {! O0 X
PricewaterhouseCoopers global network or other member firms of the network,: P/ L$ R: F( A9 C" g9 ]
each of which is a separate and independent legal entity./ Q8 Y# {2 n \3 v
( n: U8 p5 R; P
About the Urban Land Institute0 N! |! H8 B/ l
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The Urban Land Institute (www.uli.org) is a nonprofit education and/ p: ^8 q2 w' [7 h% u/ z# m
research institute supported by its members. Its mission is to provide
5 {& _* s3 X/ k/ K) ]leadership in the responsible use of land and in sustaining and creating
) q, H' o" J0 I% Ythriving communities worldwide. Established in 1936, the Institute has more6 z5 p# @) j8 o# Z8 h
than 38,000 members representing all aspects of land use and development
0 y; o% a/ ?: V% xdisciplines.9 Z- } C5 h) G- p
The Urban Land Institute is an active and growing organization in Canada.% ~* L- ~4 }# \
With nearly 700 members across the country, Canada's first ULI District
7 ]% C/ W ` C% _1 N+ @Council was established in Toronto in 2005 and a second District Council is6 n3 Q+ Q G' c3 w; W2 s
now being formed in British Columbia. The Toronto District Council will be
1 d6 d4 g- F* \8 L! M8 d/ Z' i, Dhosting a special event on Emerging Trends in Real Estate on November 20th," V/ s9 a- B# m% c
2007, featuring Jonathan Miller, the principal author of the report, Blake
# I6 i4 `- Q7 ~% k: O) MHutcheson, President of CB Richard Ellis Canada Ltd., and George Carras,
/ S/ F4 ]( p: KPresident of RealNet Canada Inc. For more information on this event, please
. E+ K! t5 v1 l% f$ scall the Toronto District Council Coordinator at (647) 258-0017, or look on
) V2 X5 b1 w. H6 O6 h4 wthe web at www.uli.org/events/index.cfm?id=3066.' J& g3 t# K$ {4 `5 Z
7 [1 ~5 [+ h" r
1 M+ R* Z% _# I3 ~) \" p) m e' J6 b3 W7 Z
For further information: Carolyn Forest, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP,! i# n( r+ j3 W
(416) 814-5730, carolyn.forest@ca.pwc.com
# O7 G, W1 w( Z7 ^2 Chttp://www.newswire.ca/en/releas ... r2007/05/c4080.html
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