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Attention Real Estate Reporters: + D/ P; w7 p9 o
2 m( y% n# Y" j/ fDespite US housing woes Canadian real estate remains upbeat - b1 M- ~ r$ f8 o5 R
TORONTO, Nov. 5 /CNW/ - Leading real estate experts are predicting the US
]" W) v+ | B% Scommercial real estate market will slow in 2008 and follow a similar pattern& P/ h* Y7 _, C& Z4 C
as the current residential market. However, according to the annual Emerging: s! }! U; t8 Z- {$ E4 k/ A& K/ U
Trends in Real Estate 2008 report, released by PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC)& F: @5 f3 J; C$ A& {1 x, f. @
and the Urban Land Institute (ULI), their Canadian counterparts are much more, p5 ?- d3 }: N. e' X( M: p. }
upbeat.
: V+ Y( D5 @8 b* F Now in its 29th year, Emerging Trends is the oldest, most highly regarded z4 C& @) q, x1 i: k! C: z0 K* L
annual industry outlook for the real estate industry. The report reflects
* R* Y3 z6 F3 s$ ?interviews with and surveys of more than 600 of the industry's leading real7 n( s3 Z0 z1 q; U
estate experts, including investors, developers, property company' W1 h7 P: b: t* U
representatives, lenders, brokers and consultants in both Canada and the US.: r* O& k! c6 y2 F- T& Q
Other versions of this report are conducted in countries around the world, E3 V v3 j* v F0 }
including Asia Pacific and Europe.5 a3 H. t( I! U9 \
According to Chris Potter, PwC partner and leader of the firm's Canadian/ j7 R" G# b L. i* T. f
Real Estate Tax practice, Canada benefits from a more conservative investment
( [ T) S# o9 n% p! xenvironment than the US. "In Canada, institution-dominated markets appear to
% a Y+ W# M" d' Zbe avoiding 'transaction mania', but real estate values have reached record
- l! ~1 }9 o1 g0 p7 R9 ^% v, |highs and a strong economy has accelerated tenant demand for space."
; N$ J; ?8 e h; I According to American respondents, a healthy correction south of the$ ?3 ]; f: N1 `. ]; b0 o4 K
border will likely bypass long-term investors but penalize late-to-the-game" D6 I9 V* _2 ^! M$ \
speculators and overleveraged buyers. Canadian respondents to the survey% C& c( `" D! [3 G$ u& t5 N9 z+ i
remain positive about sidestepping any serious impacts of this possible US
& @- p! q. E% d9 n# vcorrection. Close to 36% view their prospects for profitability in 2008 to be, S8 i+ P3 r* z9 I' |* t
very good and a further 22.4% say they're excellent." m- s# ?& |& x0 B' `7 d; T) H5 l
The strongest areas of real estate business activity for Canadian
& q3 B, \# z5 Q! brespondents is predicted to be within real estate services, followed by
0 x5 p; V: G8 i- T' }' ^commercial/multifamily development and homebuilding/residential land
$ t& a0 }+ X1 o$ @. D+ `development. All property sectors share positive prospects across the country# z* D% o8 @/ r5 ^
especially industrial and retail with respondents, on average, stating4 w6 h' S- H' A/ h1 s s
development prospects are expected to be modestly good to good. The9 g1 R$ |$ q7 a9 e2 q+ U
residential for-sale market is also expected to fair well, but might need to3 H. b; I4 g% x' M
take a breather as homebuilders cannot keep up with the current pace and
' A! O2 s4 @5 dsingle-family housing looks overpriced.7 u3 x- p$ r0 E+ B
Office stock is seeing limited inventories and dated product fill up with$ r, i; u5 {2 r8 x5 w
tenants. Except for Montreal, where office vacancies are nearing 9%. Canadian- c: }. e$ \6 V
metropolitan areas boast below 5% vacancies, and rents have room to push
) I+ G( H( b1 j3 v) ~ u1 Jhigher. The survey is also showing that costs and land scarcity is limiting3 B" D A/ o2 ]
new development. Hotel investment and development prospects are modestly good,
, _3 g* Y+ E1 j& c+ [+ zand most respondents rate this sector either a buy or a hold. Rental( K- |9 V* Z6 S4 b2 S
apartments are doing well in major cities with high immigration flows. Primary
1 S/ Y( O1 g: w j# vwestern cities - Vancouver, Calgary, and Edmonton - are veering toward housing' V" p l9 R; o: x
shortages as workers, attracted by a plethora of well-paying jobs, pour into
1 q% n8 D- l$ xthe energy zone. Apartment occupancies are soaring in these areas. Development
" M' n, F" {$ |) H1 m$ B2 ~in other regions remains difficult because of costs and land scarcity., g2 v7 f/ e4 U5 n
2 E" X2 o) E3 E" n' P W Canadian Markets to Watch
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The report comments on how Canadians like to live and work in central
* ^# m0 L6 _" I- dcities, as long as they can afford it. If housing is too pricey in 24-hour
0 d# S1 v: N7 t: mneighbourhoods, people move to inner-ring suburbs or beyond and commute back0 `7 W+ z. T, x; ^, n* c/ B$ o
into the cores. Investors, especially the institutions, are concentrated in
! M1 T) C3 q! C5 f7 Ddowntown areas too. Planners and developers focus on infill and more vertical$ U. J, T2 Q5 j& R# y A. u
projects, which reinforce the urban cores. The hot-growth energy cities out
2 t; {" b8 U$ K: r# }west - Calgary and Edmonton - score the highest ratings for investment% Z' g- i& U: A/ g
prospects, development, and for-sale housing, although it is not certain! u5 v! K: }% |& U" f6 ~
whether the recent announcements on royalties will have any effect on this.0 j: @- t' x: P% e- q
Toronto, Canada's premier global pathway city, and Vancouver also have high [3 p# ]- B; H& ~& P, y
ratings. Ottawa and Montreal follow, with Halifax lagging.! | [$ X. D4 L! U
: E4 v6 Z; C6 C1 \! [
Calgary/Edmonton8 }( u: x U* X7 j; s- `4 \) J6 S8 X
& A( r* |+ E& e+ O
Calgary is the Canada's "resource" capital and North America's number-one
4 b/ k" P% i0 Y) a E0 x0 ?boomtown. Survey respondents foresee strong buys for all sectors: 53.5% give a
' H9 G3 ~, q1 Z2 L3 ]7 Dbuy recommendation for Hotel Property, 52.8% for Industrial/Distribution,
9 k$ J: z* y5 m1 H( ]6 m; x48.1% for Retail and Apartment Residential and 44.6% for Office Property.+ k4 e, j/ P5 r4 M" q! ~6 |
Furthermore, on average the majority of respondents see Calgary For-Sale( E; y1 l* S# {, J' [ f
Homebuilding prospects as very good. Edmonton is closely mimicking the& B* G; E6 V. c
Calgary-style growth wave and as long as demand for energy resources stays% {+ i" f* ?. I! q
strong, this market will continue to do well.$ M4 |6 o+ w" K# R$ h: K
: i6 A7 p$ n8 T1 D! M3 W a* C
Vancouver' g7 V1 k, _- S6 Y
/ s* w8 c ^# j% _
Vancouver's diversified economy is roaring, the mining industry is
, r/ P* B9 i& W6 u3 p2 jbooming and the city provides a large port and a high-tech center. Outrageous" w$ M. _# Q& z4 t% r5 K% x1 D9 K
real estate prices frustrate homebuyers and commercial investors and the0 J& {6 N0 v# ^$ g/ {# t
market is extremely hard to crack. The 2010 Winter Olympic Games is also a
2 R& Z* S, ^/ e5 L! {7 Z0 ugrowth driver and accordingly 44.7% of respondents give Vancouver a buy+ |3 H _7 C0 {( v8 G
recommendation for Hotel Property. A further 43.5% give a buy Retail, 41.3%
! F1 w; B9 r1 e; z$ ?1 G6 J$ \. afor Industrial/Distribution and 36.7% for Office Property followed by 34.1%' a' n# _8 v7 Z7 i
for Apartment Residential property. Vancouver also ranks in the good to very% _4 S# N% ?" n6 j3 {
good mark for for-sale homebuilding prospects.2 J0 z2 a6 m0 [( u
5 s# V( |6 }: r( c. u
Toronto# d" _+ E: X. Z4 B) }
1 ]2 i2 |5 X. N' H Toronto ranks as a major global pathway destination, 24-hour city, and) y1 G/ R, |" [
manufacturing hub. Compared with other national financial centers, the city is
) b1 S& X3 e5 j# J# wrelatively inexpensive. However, the rising loonie is hurting manufacturing
) H! J- |$ X3 W! |4 P3 Nindustries, and clouds over the US economy threaten to stall out momentum.
3 [7 z7 K6 C' d+ M7 CThree new office towers are under construction, adding 3 million new square
}8 Z5 m6 p4 u: dfeet of office space. Notably, Office (49.1%), Industrial (46.2%) and
* J; R# O0 z2 y4 WApartments (40.8%) are given solid buys.
* h" P# C: F; ~8 C4 {# `1 N4 C( o5 P
Montreal
9 i v: q7 u Q$ ^7 j k0 U' D9 `$ z$ R+ T
Montreal continues to face concerns about market stability and overall7 {! z X) z. Z; k( `; `% O# ]
growth prospects as major companies no longer choose it as a place to set up
& Z) K9 _+ @! U1 e' Lshop. But, plenty of government offices fill space. Of the larger cities in. d8 B7 I$ k# t2 N/ @
Canada, Montreal ranks lowest as a "buy" recommendation in all real estate B5 B4 `" b- K5 e% ]3 J
sectors. However, respondents generally rated all Montreal real estate sectors; p+ L) l! [# Q3 Z& V
higher as a "hold" recommendation.
" m6 x/ c1 t/ K) M+ l$ k( z+ r( |7 a' L; y- x
The report notes that best bets for investors for the coming years
2 w0 d) c m( ^. @7 V3 minclude a focus on all property sectors in the high-growth western energy
+ o v& u- J. j$ ~markets, hold on central business district office space, develop infill condos* l* v( m: Q7 D# j+ g _
near subways stops in Toronto, buy infill sites wherever you can and invest
6 f0 @0 s( c. Zoverseas. Potter concludes, "Domestic opportunities are too limited at current
8 C! K3 Z. e4 T; o4 l4 x! pprices.", u7 H6 h& s4 Z, e
A copy of Emerging Trends in Real Estate(R) 2008 is available at( u/ X. t$ l8 l; R0 P0 D' i
www.uli.org or www.pwc.com/imre.
* a, w; p& R5 u8 o* D
3 ~) _' l& f: T0 \& k About PricewaterhouseCoopers
* u* H( F z" K7 p$ S( {; @, n7 w* h( W2 n! V+ g$ o+ Q. x
PricewaterhouseCoopers (www.pwc.com) provides industry-focused assurance,/ U6 ?9 T* E2 ^; Q( L% h2 \
tax and advisory services to build public trust and enhance value for its6 W+ i% t# ?( X
clients and their stakeholders. More than 140,000 people in 149 countries
4 P* B4 I4 R" Pacross our network share their thinking, experience and solutions to develop
9 W: q/ e# K* C5 `5 y3 J( |fresh perspectives and practical advice. Now celebrating 100 years of2 ~+ M; S3 y; o! O! L, b
excellence in Canada, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP (www.pwc.com/ca) and its0 j& L, U( E* M. c) U/ F& D2 I
related entities have more than 5,200 partners and staff in offices across the. j: S. L" W, P$ t& v: F9 Q
country.
: `+ I' \) ?; a! s1 _: v "PricewaterhouseCoopers" refers to PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, an Ontario5 z6 V. A; Y7 b- A
limited liability partnership, or, as the context requires, the/ ^/ G3 I: e- M6 s; J, E
PricewaterhouseCoopers global network or other member firms of the network,
0 Y( W& F0 R9 N; U, ~3 ^each of which is a separate and independent legal entity.- \0 D2 W& I2 ?6 Q+ Q5 s" |$ u: V
& J' \" ], ~3 Q! ?+ a
About the Urban Land Institute8 ]/ h& a0 W' P
/ ]+ h2 t: q. v) o- J2 b7 K! ?" ^ The Urban Land Institute (www.uli.org) is a nonprofit education and1 f r% m% i1 b# u# O' J% w
research institute supported by its members. Its mission is to provide- |) e: ~8 B4 F9 ^5 ~& `* V* l
leadership in the responsible use of land and in sustaining and creating
% v1 m. W* M! [; T, G4 x( Lthriving communities worldwide. Established in 1936, the Institute has more
M- K& l$ @: H; I) z0 hthan 38,000 members representing all aspects of land use and development x% l4 }& \5 `9 {- W" p, ]
disciplines.) K. K$ U, d+ N0 u1 j0 T& m
The Urban Land Institute is an active and growing organization in Canada.# R f; n5 I2 W9 l' O
With nearly 700 members across the country, Canada's first ULI District; e! h- ~3 U3 C( a+ g3 I
Council was established in Toronto in 2005 and a second District Council is) v, i. s$ H6 p3 ]) ~
now being formed in British Columbia. The Toronto District Council will be2 ~1 p: s% k2 }6 w% o2 a- \
hosting a special event on Emerging Trends in Real Estate on November 20th,3 }# X4 f1 ~6 r0 P
2007, featuring Jonathan Miller, the principal author of the report, Blake. H' K( q! y5 l( k: I9 B& f
Hutcheson, President of CB Richard Ellis Canada Ltd., and George Carras,- }. D- R7 j1 |6 ~7 q
President of RealNet Canada Inc. For more information on this event, please
: l0 Y3 ~; E7 j: X0 Q& fcall the Toronto District Council Coordinator at (647) 258-0017, or look on7 I3 d/ M- |7 _& q
the web at www.uli.org/events/index.cfm?id=3066.2 F8 r8 M; y; H
, l1 g4 n# b" y' |4 I. m( _
/ I, r+ }3 T) f/ }
2 N! t% g. M/ U' x/ A; N- `. O& i NFor further information: Carolyn Forest, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP,
! a, ]( u! R2 \% I: s(416) 814-5730, carolyn.forest@ca.pwc.com
# a( A: c9 e3 K/ ]+ Nhttp://www.newswire.ca/en/releas ... r2007/05/c4080.html( p& _0 n, |1 c# t% v- {
' @6 ^& Y" Q" S( N) b1 _2 i# Y[ 本帖最后由 QWE321 于 2007-11-13 09:08 编辑 ] |
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