No Crash for Canada Real Market, CIBC said it again

catty

Canadians haven't put themselves deep enough in debt to cause a U.S.-style housing market bust, a CIBC World Markets economist says.

In a report issued Tuesday, Benjamin Tal asks: "Where's the trigger for a Canadian house price crash?" He concludes there isn't one.

/ H2 N  B( X0 \; x"To be sure, house prices in Canada will continue to ease in the coming months," he says. "But the triggers that led to a free fall in Canadian real estate markets in the early 1990s and today in U.S. markets are nowhere to be found."
' A2 a6 h4 R1 ~: j, K  S' Z
As he sees it, Canadian home buyers never got as reckless as Americans.
3 E9 y5 ~- y: {3 a. B. t& @7 |/ s
"By almost any measure, American households entered the current housing crisis from a more vulnerable position relative to their Canadian counterparts — carrying a heavier debt load and a much lighter net worth position. And when it comes to real estate speculation, Canada was not really a player.
4 d( k" Y7 @8 H: w2 z( q' W
"But even more important than the absolute and relative level of debt is the distribution of debt. At the peak of the cycle, subprime and Alt-A mortgages accounted for no less than 33 per cent of originations in the U.S. market. In Canada we estimate that at the peak, non-conforming mortgages reached 5.4 per cent of originations."
% o: z0 g- c( E5 Z0 y/ g" l6 Q
Subprime mortgages are those given to the least creditworthy borrowers. Alt-A mortgages are considered a step higher, although the category includes so-called liars' loans in which borrowers are not required to verify their earnings or assets.

" l4 Z6 x) Q/ \) t7 X4 M4 {6 KTal says the U.S. meltdown is basically a subprime story.

"Eradicate subprime from the U.S. housing market and, instead of the most severe house price meltdown since the great depression, you get a trivial moderate cyclical slowing — something along the line of what we are currently experiencing in Canada."
8 d0 T4 X! ~( q: f
当然，历史已经证明CIBC他自己在市场预测上没有信誉拉，现在关键的是哪个是导致灾难的Trigger.
看到有个同学已经转过次文章啦，没看到，抱歉。
1 U  E, U9 K8 _" P7 @* k- t( _
[ 本帖最后由 catty 于 2008-10-1 09:32 编辑 ]