 鲜花( 34)  鸡蛋( 5)
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Canadians haven't put themselves deep enough in debt to cause a U.S.-style housing market bust, a CIBC World Markets economist says.4 g) b$ \; q! G5 `* `) Z" E* \2 F, q/ _
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In a report issued Tuesday, Benjamin Tal asks: "Where's the trigger for a Canadian house price crash?" He concludes there isn't one.1 [9 T; w0 |- D0 Q) D
/ H2 N B( X0 \; x"To be sure, house prices in Canada will continue to ease in the coming months," he says. "But the triggers that led to a free fall in Canadian real estate markets in the early 1990s and today in U.S. markets are nowhere to be found."
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As he sees it, Canadian home buyers never got as reckless as Americans.
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"By almost any measure, American households entered the current housing crisis from a more vulnerable position relative to their Canadian counterparts — carrying a heavier debt load and a much lighter net worth position. And when it comes to real estate speculation, Canada was not really a player.
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"But even more important than the absolute and relative level of debt is the distribution of debt. At the peak of the cycle, subprime and Alt-A mortgages accounted for no less than 33 per cent of originations in the U.S. market. In Canada we estimate that at the peak, non-conforming mortgages reached 5.4 per cent of originations."
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Subprime mortgages are those given to the least creditworthy borrowers. Alt-A mortgages are considered a step higher, although the category includes so-called liars' loans in which borrowers are not required to verify their earnings or assets.8 }! C( m1 }* A
" l4 Z6 x) Q/ \) t7 X4 M4 {6 KTal says the U.S. meltdown is basically a subprime story." \9 v3 i3 x/ S1 F# a% {
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"Eradicate subprime from the U.S. housing market and, instead of the most severe house price meltdown since the great depression, you get a trivial moderate cyclical slowing — something along the line of what we are currently experiencing in Canada."
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当然,历史已经证明CIBC他自己在市场预测上没有信誉拉,现在关键的是哪个是导致灾难的Trigger.7 }6 Q# z: T7 R! z' w
看到有个同学已经转过次文章啦,没看到,抱歉。
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[ 本帖最后由 catty 于 2008-10-1 09:32 编辑 ] |
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