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No Crash for Canada Real Market, CIBC said it again

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鲜花(34) 鸡蛋(5)
发表于 2008-10-1 08:19 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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Canadians haven't put themselves deep enough in debt to cause a U.S.-style housing market bust, a CIBC World Markets economist says.9 }, L  ~' K* a* y, \+ s: i

7 `5 S9 r8 s  f0 K: d, p* Q; MIn a report issued Tuesday, Benjamin Tal asks: "Where's the trigger for a Canadian house price crash?" He concludes there isn't one.! @, g* ?/ ~( h9 g6 H. V

+ h" R/ Z: f. b"To be sure, house prices in Canada will continue to ease in the coming months," he says. "But the triggers that led to a free fall in Canadian real estate markets in the early 1990s and today in U.S. markets are nowhere to be found."( I$ Z( n# f& b. Q0 o6 U0 \
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As he sees it, Canadian home buyers never got as reckless as Americans.7 z6 C  Y) u% B. y' l/ r6 A% m; t2 R
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"By almost any measure, American households entered the current housing crisis from a more vulnerable position relative to their Canadian counterparts — carrying a heavier debt load and a much lighter net worth position. And when it comes to real estate speculation, Canada was not really a player.
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. S% A  Z0 n: ]* v) m- w( Q: N1 ["But even more important than the absolute and relative level of debt is the distribution of debt. At the peak of the cycle, subprime and Alt-A mortgages accounted for no less than 33 per cent of originations in the U.S. market. In Canada we estimate that at the peak, non-conforming mortgages reached 5.4 per cent of originations."
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Subprime mortgages are those given to the least creditworthy borrowers. Alt-A mortgages are considered a step higher, although the category includes so-called liars' loans in which borrowers are not required to verify their earnings or assets.
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/ m3 H3 r: x  X2 @2 S' }# B1 yTal says the U.S. meltdown is basically a subprime story.
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"Eradicate subprime from the U.S. housing market and, instead of the most severe house price meltdown since the great depression, you get a trivial moderate cyclical slowing — something along the line of what we are currently experiencing in Canada."
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当然,历史已经证明CIBC他自己在市场预测上没有信誉拉,现在关键的是哪个是导致灾难的Trigger.
! O! T. |. o4 S4 n看到有个同学已经转过次文章啦,没看到,抱歉。
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[ 本帖最后由 catty 于 2008-10-1 09:32 编辑 ]
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