No Crash for Canada Real Market, CIBC said it again

catty

Canadians haven't put themselves deep enough in debt to cause a U.S.-style housing market bust, a CIBC World Markets economist says.
* Z- Z  c* F' G# |/ _
2 G$ {9 x+ s% [' U6 {  pIn a report issued Tuesday, Benjamin Tal asks: "Where's the trigger for a Canadian house price crash?" He concludes there isn't one.

4 {- z' M" s' ^) K, l& m"To be sure, house prices in Canada will continue to ease in the coming months," he says. "But the triggers that led to a free fall in Canadian real estate markets in the early 1990s and today in U.S. markets are nowhere to be found."

6 W+ f0 f( G+ x2 g. B, \" ]4 {As he sees it, Canadian home buyers never got as reckless as Americans.

"By almost any measure, American households entered the current housing crisis from a more vulnerable position relative to their Canadian counterparts — carrying a heavier debt load and a much lighter net worth position. And when it comes to real estate speculation, Canada was not really a player.

3 n: r4 e$ A2 ^5 M; M8 |"But even more important than the absolute and relative level of debt is the distribution of debt. At the peak of the cycle, subprime and Alt-A mortgages accounted for no less than 33 per cent of originations in the U.S. market. In Canada we estimate that at the peak, non-conforming mortgages reached 5.4 per cent of originations."

Subprime mortgages are those given to the least creditworthy borrowers. Alt-A mortgages are considered a step higher, although the category includes so-called liars' loans in which borrowers are not required to verify their earnings or assets.

$ K/ Q6 Z, D# e$ dTal says the U.S. meltdown is basically a subprime story.
/ m, d! U) j: s2 g, u
, D/ R0 L6 r8 z"Eradicate subprime from the U.S. housing market and, instead of the most severe house price meltdown since the great depression, you get a trivial moderate cyclical slowing — something along the line of what we are currently experiencing in Canada."
9 ^: z. A6 {$ }, G7 k+ S* T2 g( Z
当然，历史已经证明CIBC他自己在市场预测上没有信誉拉，现在关键的是哪个是导致灾难的Trigger.
) M5 w# u: G: z2 B0 Y% O! ?% G8 p看到有个同学已经转过次文章啦，没看到，抱歉。
7 ~# n7 Y8 f5 ^, h# c/ v
2 x4 K. ~- R2 R' z2 @( }[ 本帖最后由 catty 于 2008-10-1 09:32 编辑 ]