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No Crash for Canada Real Market, CIBC said it again

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鲜花(34) 鸡蛋(5)
发表于 2008-10-1 08:19 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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Canadians haven't put themselves deep enough in debt to cause a U.S.-style housing market bust, a CIBC World Markets economist says.
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! S% m$ U3 U' Q0 M1 uIn a report issued Tuesday, Benjamin Tal asks: "Where's the trigger for a Canadian house price crash?" He concludes there isn't one.* h' |1 s7 r, p% `/ Y" S
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"To be sure, house prices in Canada will continue to ease in the coming months," he says. "But the triggers that led to a free fall in Canadian real estate markets in the early 1990s and today in U.S. markets are nowhere to be found.": ?& V4 |; q8 E: h3 r% D4 M
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As he sees it, Canadian home buyers never got as reckless as Americans.* U. m6 e. @7 c) Z3 ^; Q9 b
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"By almost any measure, American households entered the current housing crisis from a more vulnerable position relative to their Canadian counterparts — carrying a heavier debt load and a much lighter net worth position. And when it comes to real estate speculation, Canada was not really a player.  |' E' K+ e/ J* b' k+ h4 \6 T

/ k0 ~5 [% L0 w$ B$ l9 M"But even more important than the absolute and relative level of debt is the distribution of debt. At the peak of the cycle, subprime and Alt-A mortgages accounted for no less than 33 per cent of originations in the U.S. market. In Canada we estimate that at the peak, non-conforming mortgages reached 5.4 per cent of originations."
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Subprime mortgages are those given to the least creditworthy borrowers. Alt-A mortgages are considered a step higher, although the category includes so-called liars' loans in which borrowers are not required to verify their earnings or assets.) {* E& U- s& z6 j2 U
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Tal says the U.S. meltdown is basically a subprime story.
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"Eradicate subprime from the U.S. housing market and, instead of the most severe house price meltdown since the great depression, you get a trivial moderate cyclical slowing — something along the line of what we are currently experiencing in Canada."8 L# J) f7 E3 t% p) R9 @3 g

4 c& t: H# a' S: \2 U' O0 @: Y2 K当然,历史已经证明CIBC他自己在市场预测上没有信誉拉,现在关键的是哪个是导致灾难的Trigger.
& H/ h: ^' G: ?看到有个同学已经转过次文章啦,没看到,抱歉。
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. J, w8 u, Q: G* m8 M# S[ 本帖最后由 catty 于 2008-10-1 09:32 编辑 ]
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