原帖由 WST 于 2009-3-5 20:21 发表 1 C& e& o4 [- r( l' B L# S; ^2 a6 Z. N7 @1。你所观测的规律是长久已有,还是最近才有?2 e' |& e& h3 m( }- ~% j* U
2。有几成把握?% U. \' \; m5 o, v1 P
3。可知道是何原因:是因为市场的初始反应多半是错的?
L! S3 y, J( {- w- ^/ T$ j; g长期观察的结果,90%的可能。6 O4 Q$ @; U. m2 H; P" g O @
等我找一个支持的证据给你。+ k0 Q. q. P7 w% |" }& _
没错,市场往往最初的反应是错的。3 s! _% B! M+ ~" U8 i8 v: H
1 o. x+ Z' q, ^. Z5 x[ 本帖最后由 紫光 于 2009-3-5 20:31 编辑 ]
Trading Strategy: The immediate price action in EUR/USD over the last six NFP releases has been quite orderly. Interestingly, the pair seems to care little as to whether the actual result beats or misses expectations. Looking back at prior releases and the price action in the ten minutes immediately following, the knee-jerk move (whether up or down) looks to max out at an average of 50 pips away from the 8:30am ET price. Within the ten minute window, the pair was sitting about 40 pips on average in the opposite direction of that move. Assuming similar behavior this time around, it would make sense to wait for a 50 pip move post number and then go the other way once that is established. We would then look to lock in profits at 40 pips and use a trailing stop beyond that. Given that past price action is not always perfect in projecting potential future behavior, we would preferably implement a tight stop for our initial entry. / R& A- x' L3 r% [$ G5 `, v明天我肯定是起不来的,所以这个钱赚不到。