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发表于 2009-4-9 10:10
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TD Special Report节选
Alberta
' }0 V! v- B8 M6 _Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its- A! F' t" Q; ~+ Y
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
) C) k% U" G9 W& f1 ]3 ]: Kare cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to2 G) |$ W+ |% C; t
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
& O* s& Q8 C6 I1 K5 h2 Q$ c5 gformation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided; F f/ [# d) e; R" w
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,
6 @3 X2 m d# P' [3 S) i; P3 J' v9 ~1 Lthe net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and6 i+ w( l- x- }) R R& y( `: ~
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous( x8 {9 n5 c. d5 a% e& I6 o
pace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed9 h# A1 u* W7 h% H* T# A
precipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined
" l' i7 [: K$ G. W* E8 `; Qto 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year) D6 W8 `+ v% ?5 L( t, a
prior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this6 y. o4 p2 H! O" I- I; b
year in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,
5 U1 F* p* l$ t% L4 b1 qhomebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around
$ P3 g! T1 h& F H4 u7 V9 D30,000 new households will form in the province during
1 | i0 t1 ]- y8 S1 P/ s2 }( F2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
1 S* W+ l" q% L. s e8 ^Even accounting for the population inflows, the province’s
) p4 q# A- @; `9 B3 Hhomebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
5 \/ w' O/ i Q3 Uduring the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta& x- R" w$ w& t3 [
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new7 o3 A% @; ]+ m M- i- O
households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals
; B* K/ \& H8 e2 Z6 Xduring 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
1 \3 ~3 o+ L- F0 S1 p1 v# H1 Bsales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories4 _4 p, M N! a7 r4 [$ i6 i0 L: [- o
clearly indicate that the present stock of homes is
a( [. q8 N: b* n, texcessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
4 x5 x( L( }5 a% D7 t. F1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a
. f* K, k0 [* Y& G: Y3 F6 Csales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive
" V. Q0 G: V4 a& C8 P! m% \buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
/ n: h6 o3 J! @. L' B8 Ctwo decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in
& F( c! p7 ~' i4 y1 }+ U9 Xunsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747+ [5 {0 n/ M4 B1 O9 L, C+ p" c
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
* D- `& X1 Y% q, Q; ]) i9 s; e9 Erecorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
1 {! W! ~ Z$ @! n: v5 Fresale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s2 ]! U+ L" z$ D8 h& ~. y
major cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
# t' g- D# k9 p$ n! O: Qof new singles, and, with demand having cooled
0 S! _4 Y6 t$ ]: Trapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
0 ]- Z: M' Z3 OThe steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
' W# S# |6 j* n, _2 j$ l. T) Bboom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.4 J* X' U# Q! w5 ]% y
Although income growth was very strong, Albertan
1 {/ z" n/ S/ X, r* E7 dhousing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
) i* d/ B8 ]! Y/ grelative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale3 Y- g- G! [! c1 l6 Z5 k7 X
prices substantially eroded affordability and, even
6 T6 h8 M% d/ wthough Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
5 Y' ~2 R, {$ D# mon average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
4 q$ e4 b3 ~9 g& ZThe 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average
# x; Z' u4 ~# H9 s- p$ H- h7 G4 vresale price in February is evidence that past prices% o) Z: x3 I V0 n4 c7 ?7 G2 m% Y
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove6 C# B; ^' J7 G' X) h. O8 A1 c
homebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’ b, G) Y! Z. n' c
deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,( g! d" w% F) P7 z
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
" n% E1 ]3 Y1 \7 Q3 m9 b8 vleg down over 2009.) O* x4 s5 g$ s) S# Z4 U; s
' g1 r2 \7 H0 |3 p" h5 c
[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ] |
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