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ZT:Average home price will fall to $246,000 in '09: TD

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发表于 2009-4-8 21:38 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Canadian house prices have further to fall, while overbuilding in the residential market, particularly in the Prairies, will prevent the sector from making a quick recovery from the current downturn in sales, prices and construction, according to a report by TD Economics.+ u$ m+ k! J0 c6 g

/ U; E1 h9 g  j" F6 i: r; ^2 S" m' eTD economists expect the average Canadian house price to fall to about $246,000 in 2009, down 24% from the peak of $324,000 in 2007. As of February, the average nation-wide house price stood at $282,000, down 13% from its peak.
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The report, released Tuesday, found house prices had been overshooting their fundamental value by about 9% since 2005 as speculation drove up prices and encouraged overbuilding.
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1 W- J- o) j* K! @; C) Y( k' V"Declines in prices are now returning to fundamental-justified values. We estimate this process to be roughly half done, both in terms of time and value adjustments," the report said.
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& o' Z3 P1 Y, l3 g, YNow, as housing prices correct, the economists believe the excess supply of housing in the market will continue to weigh on the sector throughout 2009. However, Canada will avoid a U.S.-style housing crash because the oversupply of housing is much smaller.
+ u9 Z; ]( f3 F. J, r% ?4 i6 w! P# o% J, }
TD estimates the overhang of residential homes in the Canadian market is equal to about three month's supply, compared to about 10 months in the United States. As a result of the overhang combined with low prices, housing construction would likely remain 20% below its potential level and fall to 125,000 in 2009 and increase slightly to 135,000 in 2010. In September 2007, new homes were being constructed at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 273,000.
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5 F5 F$ T& @) c+ Q1 m( u"A glut in the housing stock means that builders will have to rein in residential construction further -- particularly in the most overbuilt markets. As well, excess inventories in certain markets will prove an additional drag on home prices," it said.
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) a5 E( C$ Z, d+ Y, m. STD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes, while the overhang of supply in Saskatoon's was at a historical high. Montreal also had a growing inventory of unsold condos and apartments. Toronto and Vancouver have so far avoided a major oversupply in inventories, however TD said the large number of condos under construction in both cities raised the possibility of mounting oversupply this year.$ ~6 I5 D3 n2 i: V) q- f$ m  @& c/ k

7 ^' l, _5 J; {6 DMeanwhile, lower interest rates and house prices have helped housing become slightly more affordable. TD said mortgage payments cost the consumer about 34% of an average household income in 2007, compared with 22% in 2000. This rate is predicted to have fallen to 32% in 2008. % k4 s! u' U% X

! h8 X! a' ~0 ?http://www.financialpost.com/news-sectors/story.html?id=1474575
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发表于 2009-4-8 21:40 | 显示全部楼层
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TD said Calgary and Edmonton had accumulated "worrisome" inventories of unsold single family homes,! V0 P0 c5 I; R2 n8 d$ m
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[ 本帖最后由 宋兵乙 于 2009-4-8 22:45 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:16 | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2009-4-8 22:35 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队 追求完美
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用做房奴了,都可以轻松呼吸着这里新鲜的空气,享受着这里竞争不太激烈的生活,退休了回中国住半年,这里半年。对了,中国的房子千万不要着急出手,否者退休后回国没有房子住了,到时候小心回国也买不起了。呵呵。$ }8 [, O0 h* C# i' _
再说了:听说大家都抢房子的时候是三年前,那时候的专业工作容易找,来的早的买到便宜的房子,一般的townhouse13-16万,现在则18-25万。今非昔比,如今很多人都回学校深造去了,除非经济危机短期能够回转,否者房价应该回到三年前再跌个5、6万的。8 R7 \, N& m; h/ v3 C
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[ 本帖最后由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:54 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
原帖由 茶水 于 2009-4-8 23:35 发表 : T/ h4 n5 D. a" w! s( A6 Y
跟toronto的平均房价36万比起来,edmonton应该再跌一些,虽然中国和加拿大不同,中国发展的不如加拿大均衡,但还是有可以借鉴的地方,比如说中国沈阳的房价能和上海比吗?如果能跌到24万!哈哈!我们一般的打工族不用 ...

( A. C8 e) P; I/ K! _! J很多人都回学校深造去了2 h4 I$ ?$ j* }: S
嘿嘿嘿嘿。我也是被迫深造去了。
理袁律师事务所
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:10 | 显示全部楼层

TD Special Report节选

Alberta0 T) z* Q1 v0 R5 Q( L5 L9 H
Wild Rose country was overbuilt substantially during its5 u3 N6 g, U: }: T1 }
boom years, and mounting inventories in Calgary and Edmonton
9 q& \2 X5 ?$ w% K4 Gare cause for concern. Indeed, even over 1991 to6 F% w+ r/ o( T0 u, T! _+ a
2001, housing starts in Alberta had already overshot household
8 B/ h5 r9 d6 R/ |) R" m. @/ sformation by 12%. With oil prices having subsided1 f3 f% n( T: G$ e% v
from their fever pitch and expansion projects now on hold,0 d8 I, b9 c8 J5 x% m; j% S
the net inflow of migrants has slowed dramatically and( V; F( M& ]$ ]7 A8 L7 N) N
may even cease completely during 2009. The previous
/ e$ A6 o9 e/ B& H8 g8 Fpace of homebuilding could not be sustained and slowed
& j0 X- |- M3 j; J' U' wprecipitously during the fall. Alberta’s starts further declined# f, S! L( N" d) ~5 B2 v0 t& Q4 m
to 13,100 units in February, 61% lower than a year
& H, g& w& [6 g7 v# Q  Eprior. With Alberta’s economy set to contract by 2.5% this
  q' G3 |+ H9 V. Z5 H* o- E: nyear in real terms and roughly 10% in nominal terms,1 ]0 m: L: E+ Y2 M7 S
homebuilding has likely not yet bottomed. While around+ y+ M9 V1 ?3 v) v8 {/ `
30,000 new households will form in the province during
6 z2 Y  {# y: _. X2 j2009, starts are likely to be nearer 14,000 units on the year.
. p; w6 [) p; sEven accounting for the population inflows, the province’s8 Q& K4 q3 W' r8 z1 w+ J- X
homebuilding overshot fundamentals by nearly 10%
2 g1 w$ S& k; D0 |# _8 vduring the commodity boom. From 1991 to 2006, Alberta  H+ h: l% i2 L/ u) E0 L- L; x/ P
has approximately 72,000 more housing starts than new
* Q( S& Y# A2 U) [households, and the estimated 13% overshoot of fundamentals$ o) [6 S  ]/ E/ s) [# D7 p! i& r
during 2002-2008 exhibits this excess. Now, plunging
* K* Z3 G- n4 e( B8 j/ q9 X$ {sales-to-new listings ratios and mounting unsold inventories
, c, ~% M$ y  d4 P1 dclearly indicate that the present stock of homes is. h1 w3 H" B# ?
excessive. As of February, Calgary had an overhang of
2 Z7 J& q8 p# l" M3 C# U1,133 unsold units (874 singles and 259 multiples) and a% ]/ M7 E$ p, L! O- U. I) F( k
sales-to-new listings ratio of 0.29, indicative of a definitive& _- q" c3 w+ `, ~4 X8 F2 {
buyer’s market, having now fallen to its lowest value in
. R# K+ Q# s9 y3 V2 @/ z  f1 T6 etwo decades. Similarly alarming is Edmonton’s surge in- {: u; q# f9 E
unsold inventories. As of December, Edmonton had 1,747( P  _2 p8 y+ |+ d) v0 q0 ~
unsold units (1,254 singles and 493 multiples) – its largest
+ r- _6 Q; _  [/ q) k! O# `recorded overhang ever – and conditions for sellers in the
, q3 @: c; a  ]/ a0 r3 Q/ v7 uresale market have deteriorated sharply. In both of Alberta’s
8 e& ]: x" @6 J8 \# D# W. _0 Qmajor cities, homebuilders have worrisome unsold inventories
) {! |5 S8 u# u4 Y5 z+ \. dof new singles, and, with demand having cooled
. y' x$ ^+ [9 q( Orapidly, resale markets already appear saturated.
( \8 q, i, F5 B" e, `) m1 J/ c, `The steep appreciation of house prices during Alberta’s
$ u; r; C5 L# a( K% B, Dboom times now appears to have been far too optimistic.
: F& e, e/ m+ h, jAlthough income growth was very strong, Albertan& Y6 E, ]( _. \6 ]+ v: _) m% ?
housing during 2007 and 2008 was especially overpriced
) c0 I+ Y9 N2 o( u) Brelative to fundamentals. The quick climb of Albertan resale
/ m2 @5 p1 @& s0 H9 n( w  Dprices substantially eroded affordability and, even
; i: e; V" X6 q2 [8 [0 Sthough Albertans were Canada’s highest income earners
% t9 Y7 w2 a% J$ @; Con average, the growth in household income was not sustainable.
* B  N* |2 \: T* T$ ]The 9% year-over-year decline in Alberta’s average: u8 |7 {3 b# |' F& a- U7 I" \
resale price in February is evidence that past prices4 a4 r# [6 o  m0 B) U
exceeded fundamentals. Those inflated prices drove
  J5 o6 G, \: R" D( F: S/ k! Yhomebuilding in excess of fundamentals. Given Albertans’
) I3 @+ R: @: k' y) S7 g9 G& _deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,5 O8 J2 R+ _4 |6 S
Alberta’s resale prices probably have another 20%
+ Z& q" p( M& I5 S; E( h8 ileg down over 2009., a2 w6 ~, ~9 M6 ?/ P  m- X1 `( u* ]

4 W5 J% I! p4 [! R" H[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:14 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:11 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Given Albertans’deteriorating incomes and the overhangs of unsold inventories,
# I1 S3 O! \- h2 ~' |9 N0 {1 pAlberta’s resale prices probably have another 20% leg down over 2009.:

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* E' p% ^6 c5 z[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:15 编辑 ]
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:13 | 显示全部楼层
同胞们,底就要来到了。打起精神,准备抄底!
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-9 10:17 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
Yup, and you would be simply manipulated and brainless if you purchased right now.
( Q& M' E* G3 R% j- r# i1 Q, Y翻译:brainless=没脑子=猪脑分子
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! W$ g3 i& |# {6 z0 n! o! l6 Z+ g+ ?http://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/04/07/hot-bothered/#comments3 y$ i1 }2 P8 R4 Z+ H

( Y/ {& B4 {- `1 B0 |! M[ 本帖最后由 依勒特 于 2009-4-9 11:19 编辑 ]
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发表于 2009-4-9 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
老杨团队,追求完美;客户至上,服务到位!
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发表于 2009-4-10 00:02 | 显示全部楼层
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