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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC
' D; s' N4 A; d$ T0 n TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the
: t1 q ` d- K8 C% S. {middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive
* @# k: C1 q3 Ggains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions," V) L. }! b$ }$ y
according to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.% R% v. c" J3 H4 b- h$ a+ g5 C
"The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"3 Y: [) g6 o2 r. K6 _
said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is, s$ {. T$ P6 X9 I
improving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability$ G2 y; @' [- ], k1 a% w
measures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."
; s5 ]; N+ t: A9 v4 B0 L L RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is
4 P. t% h; T" R5 y% ?) e/ P0 G5 Bworrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,6 j w5 C' q; d3 n; I4 K( l
which runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have
4 B" r- [: F/ `4 }sustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.
9 o, z. N5 M% q1 Y2 G( B( W+ g- r The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the- \3 _) m. |6 w, v8 O7 o
proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a
$ h. t/ B! d) Lhome, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.' r; ~$ d/ A8 l9 H% v2 u" v0 B( C* S
Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the
# T7 X" {/ R7 u8 y% U/ ?- dstandard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and
! m5 [& E" Q6 r0 s9 _' c; H& a, l( V# dthe standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.- i" u: E r( d: ~: ?% t- L
According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets$ |' t9 Z/ ?8 Y3 v$ C
may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in
) b& `$ \& X9 y- Y5 D" xthe closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at% [5 N+ h6 |* D2 j
historically depressed levels.: M- e6 F5 O- v; Q [2 @
Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost: ^' @) [+ Z+ z4 S$ J, o
of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House
/ J& C9 ^% C7 j$ n6 d! Gprices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the
5 E6 [+ R* ]# ^5 chands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This
0 B% d# y4 P! s8 _/ F, Benormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the: F9 V! V0 b2 r) m+ {
months ahead," added Hogue.
; |0 B7 U$ _. Q! N, a* ?9 y RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest, C! n9 q4 `* ^8 c. G) U
cities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary
$ O, Q; j& b9 L& e. {42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.
/ g' n4 B% d2 \) P @ The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for
" K3 m# p4 w6 n2 W# Ea broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these
7 S* c1 ]9 [: Lcities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only- j W+ N8 W/ K' M7 j" K6 S( S2 ]8 J
takes mortgage payments relative to income into account.) x8 N) _& R3 i
The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is8 [. R7 r$ x4 t6 O) u2 u7 h
based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property
2 Y0 z) |/ O1 W; g3 E# Ubenchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented
: T7 j; W% Y6 Hincluding a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard
9 o& F, m0 O0 n S& Rcondominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.! L) E2 j% _: Q+ y; L
For example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership7 @! x' H1 S$ _- U
costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50
9 q& t' W1 R. j* U/ ~- Pper cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.
1 z: g1 |# l. z# d6 r. e* j% T1 m5 @7 l+ \4 n" F- q9 V3 h
<</ M( n4 X% [9 {
Highlights from across Canada:0 \6 b- p$ G% Z( G7 e A' n0 q. {" E
( S' i# r5 z4 n) y1 W
- Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has
$ v0 j! g# }; M0 R9 Y* A9 w$ }2 b N intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing0 s7 K3 T8 _- H+ A- V
home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound
5 c: X% p: N& C- d T. A5 L0 I6 ^ only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track
1 ]5 c; `6 J- j! c6 l/ W y0 B since about the middle of 2007.
- M0 P$ y. ]$ n7 }/ m8 G- r5 Q - Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the& I% [7 @/ S* \6 A
frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to) b Y- v$ L' r8 v! h
decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still
8 }, X Z, s: Q. b( T$ T largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely
0 V, ?! d7 R, a% C% ~ poor affordability levels./ Q8 X1 I! c. w% y9 Y5 a5 l
- Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the# y1 Q6 h! S9 P8 t' A3 G3 C4 Y
vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and) r$ \( ~! x: ]2 B+ W
prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.
. g8 T8 f$ {; Q7 R/ |* J. @6 t Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to
9 ^ V8 |8 c$ c minimize any downside risks.% N& g# T% V, T8 f
- Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market+ G/ v0 K/ o. J( {4 z7 ~& g, h
conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is4 h8 |. J: g" l) n7 ?# v2 \
unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early* Y4 {. S, b! u5 ?
1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly
& @% ^/ n5 Q) C: T+ H# c being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.
# O) X; T# B. o. I7 W( H P4 B - Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in
- f# w. d. |' Y/ }! I& R/ p Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus
# }$ E) v7 C/ a% _ far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up& @" \6 Y! u0 N
reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be
' s9 [" q- R# `8 R$ t ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only" L# D. E- o- Z% w4 o
modestly in recent years.
" L9 u+ A2 y7 I7 d) ?# [3 B' _ - Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the5 S* S* |1 S' a
general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot+ L U+ u. m' `
spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward$ Z6 G. R: F- B B9 q! p0 ?
price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability; v0 l7 a* y: \, s5 @) }
following two years of deterioration.
" R e+ b' I; ?2 A >> |
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