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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC
8 {2 R" ~ `& r* w) P6 O0 f TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the# i5 z! Z; H2 n8 C3 x
middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive
' m+ T/ u9 P5 lgains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,- Z0 }9 U+ D. b h$ |9 p
according to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.) ?( o0 m3 y; K. D6 `6 E, Z
"The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"
0 G% \7 O5 Y/ M- Q" Csaid Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is
9 b2 s' E) l* ]% ^6 r: {: Bimproving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability+ E. o9 G6 P8 F( r7 C7 m$ I0 W8 N9 ^
measures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."! K; |' N6 f( @, X6 e3 @/ `, N- o
RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is
9 r1 m+ e. u; H: ?; H8 n% hworrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,
2 Y: p; d5 i6 T& r) W3 h# Ywhich runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have; d3 p0 n6 @7 T' o) D7 @: a
sustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.$ y- k8 H5 z$ U0 x7 z
The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the# _0 c% _$ A/ K2 `7 m
proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a# P/ a6 r2 X1 u2 g: y
home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.$ k! f; q; L- a5 Q9 A
Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the. s3 [/ r( l& k( _( \! N& \; }, M, @
standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and
( z" e! K t% I0 Z) H+ rthe standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.% s% c W W. H, J q- D4 \ K5 D
According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets" T3 K: a- |$ |3 `8 T
may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in
% w3 q/ z; @6 e% tthe closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at
3 A' p$ O: W( r2 v s# v% phistorically depressed levels.% j$ B9 K1 a' s4 `( h& m" J
Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost
8 f3 O3 }; V8 _of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House
$ X! j: E1 T: W7 {; k) Pprices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the
( k% o+ z H( w1 s! v* phands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This; n' Z0 X8 ^- v1 j
enormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the
# ~/ z. |7 F9 Kmonths ahead," added Hogue.
" h2 T8 g, e* J) I- ~2 u( Z5 C* } RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest; S% f2 y# w( f- r
cities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary
- A4 N* a7 N1 ^42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.* ~5 m9 B6 O2 S# ~ u9 O* o
The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for
! Q7 z# t5 D: s2 Z' X0 C" M0 ra broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these* J8 U( \ s. J+ { [0 K3 f$ k9 z
cities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only+ }! t/ i; |/ E. P
takes mortgage payments relative to income into account.! d3 L4 J8 @% a/ @- k3 r
The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is
+ d& p1 q5 z# ~% r' S# R% qbased on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property
1 T! g2 o4 r# m4 Y% W; |5 Sbenchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented/ v, J8 e, X0 h6 Z2 V4 L& W9 ]
including a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard7 U8 X1 I& O3 j! L, Z
condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.
J6 ~% T1 `9 B+ Q( h1 w* u4 b5 OFor example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership4 V+ l2 Q" \5 ?: F- Y
costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50
% A6 n# X- T( K7 i* a& k$ }( ^per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.
6 \3 M. S( t7 |9 U; t5 r# R' _ X' |$ X5 H
<<
. ]1 M3 q& K' r: K Highlights from across Canada:
2 {1 E% V" ~) T8 ?- z0 j2 T8 {& Q0 e
5 ~4 U4 b- C( h' R& c( L - Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has
' `! [( T2 q$ I, p" \ intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing: L0 }+ L5 J6 j; Q7 E
home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound
+ Y2 q# q, @( n; m5 g0 t7 e only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track
9 A+ ~8 v A, R7 y \ since about the middle of 2007.
$ m; u( p2 {2 f* c* a - Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the( k! x) r$ ^, [, |* Q
frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to
& k1 a; U0 ^0 z5 E# M decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still
$ X$ d5 _( n3 M [) D largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely$ m- k+ u4 A1 h" @
poor affordability levels.
7 ]$ o7 s) b8 I1 R$ y: L$ [3 \ - Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the
6 }5 W- I+ Y$ A. ~9 v vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and9 j' v' S- F1 }+ D8 h
prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.
. b: _( ^4 H0 `& h1 @. F Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to6 V; S" b1 ]3 n& M' A% Y: L+ [% U! ?: m
minimize any downside risks.
# R% S( {$ h/ w# g0 B7 M5 W* r( |( L" U - Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market
8 g! _, h# I3 ^" a# |( K conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is/ _ c! m+ m# G8 m7 I1 v( |
unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early
2 g& O( O$ l) S x' h1 y* W 1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly1 K7 H3 G( o0 b- p7 h
being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.
l& m1 D% `" W: `4 `* s - Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in
6 F" d% a; _5 N4 U- D: E' y$ O Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus
; t: i0 |8 y2 h5 F& t far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up$ e/ J/ y6 Y. l" i# U B$ T6 g, p
reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be
3 E# {0 C8 C( f- K* ] ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only
% S. S5 |- Z2 K" o/ V modestly in recent years.# ~0 Y4 D% u' y) N# p
- Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the
) Y- c. x- ]. V9 w5 ?1 K/ { general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot' {9 w) V7 A$ q% R
spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward
. O: H/ g/ Y$ W5 m7 ^5 W price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability
" g" ^. c; h! j* K% } following two years of deterioration.
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