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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC
$ } r y5 D6 z TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the( W) p% Y. ~- A9 b/ n4 U
middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive
4 n5 i- o* o" Fgains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,: X1 K8 }' \: h
according to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.) |! g) s3 p- }3 H3 j+ w" i
"The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"* c m7 J( V2 w6 Z V+ K' H
said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is
9 v- ?% Y0 K5 P+ p, f( U' Ximproving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability- H& o6 M& W' w6 B; L! {
measures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."$ f: v* b3 C/ b2 F7 u! L, Z
RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is/ h3 K+ d& K' c8 e3 R X" s4 l
worrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,0 @% c) I& x3 V+ `2 d8 m1 S
which runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have0 F3 t; j( X# B( I, ~
sustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes." P1 i0 y; ]. Z& @2 h! {7 O3 i
The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the& ]5 i' K* U, g. a3 Y0 F
proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a: r% M9 o d5 q4 ` [) H) v
home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.
$ _( _7 M2 u7 E; k" s/ y; U3 B& I0 u3 hAffordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the
/ S7 z, V* d; W: j/ i$ k2 m& t xstandard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and
, L/ P) E( b+ D* tthe standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.
3 i/ u+ W3 d. i/ F7 q! B& Q According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets8 N/ T P' M! H
may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in
/ D5 t, ?, v; n @% D' C4 @the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at
9 q( I3 G, J0 ohistorically depressed levels.. z. V0 M5 Q* {0 {7 J% u% {& d
Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost
0 x! E! F$ L' _ q1 _9 B8 Yof homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House
8 u$ d6 f) a& e* M1 c2 ~prices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the; o; A2 d- p$ H/ i5 w" h
hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This; U/ V9 y- p# Q2 i
enormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the5 k* y$ u5 b* K% L
months ahead," added Hogue.
p; _% B7 C1 L0 f; L# t% A RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest' X' l5 S$ l5 O" i7 \
cities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary# p: |' G3 g+ B+ X
42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.5 l- h3 `$ X5 X8 w
The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for: t2 J& k8 J& p9 `5 r$ l$ @/ E
a broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these! q: E5 ^+ C! `
cities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only1 c0 z; t- V7 A) k q
takes mortgage payments relative to income into account.
) G& J+ X1 H+ \( M e1 Y. T The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is; y6 E/ {" e3 l
based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property; L0 D( C$ ^' O6 [. T$ O! i
benchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented# N4 a# V9 \- j0 V. E
including a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard0 J8 Y% l: ~. F r3 q S) h
condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.
! }# G) E8 e3 q3 |2 q9 PFor example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership
$ H& L% r5 B6 i, o% [7 B1 V* n! Dcosts, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50
# v* s h0 S/ }, u7 U4 _5 c8 C2 P0 [, Gper cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.
- h5 W9 V3 e- o! e+ c7 |& k0 o8 F/ W" K* i4 V1 l$ Z
<<! s7 s1 l' ^9 t
Highlights from across Canada:* L2 H* _- \9 C2 @
5 ~; K5 a/ E0 J7 |2 E# l" p7 \
- Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has
9 z# K" C" e2 l) c, t8 J4 U; j" h intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing
: U4 O8 P& a# w/ S home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound
9 A+ O8 H0 O, g1 `. x only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track5 u2 J+ |3 w! b* B& ?* G
since about the middle of 2007.9 z7 A1 b; r3 t" y" ]4 E
- Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the' H) X: o; t) B* P* ~
frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to' W' i/ ]9 `; d1 A. M; X4 g2 [8 K
decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still
2 @% D& U; A, }, s6 p1 ` largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely7 _, j1 a% [7 Y/ P; K0 T3 y
poor affordability levels.
* z" D2 {( f4 `5 M4 O7 Z- d - Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the
5 b9 i' u! f! H4 }+ w vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and
5 m) G" C. {4 k' n prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.- C8 J1 h0 g# {7 G0 |
Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to
; S7 [: c4 M6 z* A/ i5 E& z3 d' Q minimize any downside risks.; a. |: S5 O. t6 A" u
- Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market, i; z. U3 M- _: F: Y
conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is
O' C3 T9 x1 z# \/ V1 X unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early4 @6 C. F+ ^' q
1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly8 ]" s6 Y& }' |2 |2 X+ C0 X- n( `
being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.; K- w; | ?- X4 i ?- t
- Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in K3 {8 s8 l9 B
Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus
, @; D$ K8 |" ^& H, w! H far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up
7 l1 A( c! v" _ reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be
/ x* q) R8 m1 J: E8 {$ r9 _ ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only' ?$ F" q/ ]! a; I- F: ?
modestly in recent years.
6 u, _4 C; q# L) n! w8 ?3 D9 [# R - Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the' ^2 k2 M! L2 K3 g; i- i g) T
general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot
4 K$ N+ p+ @. k0 S7 F8 k$ W! \ spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward/ s+ n i7 S9 R7 R$ k, _9 U
price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability! g& T0 T( m( {+ n
following two years of deterioration.
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