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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC . d' O1 p: C/ Y5 u$ s
TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the3 J* ?, [+ W( K% q" S. r
middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive6 R$ i- B9 ?3 v( I
gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,5 X4 h, z' v7 }/ Z/ j9 r
according to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.
) N+ k, @5 w( v- R. a- ] "The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"
% i- D0 v: A! A% V( dsaid Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is- ~- u" }3 a; w- ~
improving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability. o) \" `0 s0 @- w6 ]0 W" H& g( F
measures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."
5 h# ^: D7 z: V0 ^2 K' S+ n RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is7 _* }" _, D! v2 h" F! G
worrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,! K% {) T1 S" t" w# x! ]
which runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have% k# M) f8 k( ?
sustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.8 Z0 \( j# H0 }! A
The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the, A" u W! Z/ S, M
proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a
$ a# O5 d; R9 K. ]+ X; Ohome, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.
* H! i- u) T+ H; z+ u' R2 mAffordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the
' L( l, k3 m7 [3 Qstandard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and; p7 H7 Y+ f: B& b, G# y' {5 s
the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.
: T& K6 l0 E" b. p According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets
. ~ p1 P$ Z* T' ymay be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in
( D. W R% L, c0 y* s& s6 Fthe closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at1 G- M( }0 D* g; R5 H1 \- _- E$ K
historically depressed levels.
% L, C3 o# w2 y$ z) Q& o Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost
6 r9 Q$ A6 A+ S+ Cof homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House0 v( s! n6 I7 P6 O) r
prices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the& X8 X {6 Q/ w, w- B: o, P) ~- f/ z6 L
hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This
0 o6 V5 r$ E6 f& T8 w3 ?7 Fenormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the* u- ?0 H: g# N. J; |3 x! Y0 @+ z& M9 P
months ahead," added Hogue./ S, K) S/ c4 x5 B6 A% ?
RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest5 D- G6 P0 s6 G5 U+ \& A
cities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary: Y+ Q9 E- A6 g) h0 R
42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.* z$ Z8 T5 p2 O& W
The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for
+ Y9 e5 M, K: G$ Va broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these
/ h) U- [' X3 L$ H v# F" kcities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only
/ M; e- V5 J+ ntakes mortgage payments relative to income into account., p, X! J* p# ?' y1 H
The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is/ A; Y6 d( b9 S+ A' x$ w
based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property
1 K& ], I/ N( D) ]6 w9 N P5 R! jbenchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented
! Y# \1 U* o3 K9 \% j4 `) M zincluding a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard+ }9 U! d8 d8 G/ k. e, q
condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.
% _ E# }6 k5 i9 BFor example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership
# H7 A/ A7 Q$ Mcosts, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50/ U; n6 k u+ w5 k+ H* J' E; r: I0 m* I1 I
per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.
2 i, `5 t7 T+ w/ z7 u- S: n" a
- F0 A7 ]- _8 F7 I c: L <<4 T K3 B9 Y& G7 q- N+ Q/ g8 N
Highlights from across Canada:& H4 R* i( x u) h5 K$ m' i' I: o' `7 B
5 z! a% J0 m& @% h5 e, u* f
- Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has
. V# {0 _, ?! U+ Q9 V. Y intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing
, g5 {$ U! m" u$ D home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound `& }6 ]. L5 e& y
only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track
: y, V: T! V4 w9 e) E6 J. H since about the middle of 2007. L' n0 b0 v! x6 z% [
- Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the: z: h1 X d& f" g* o
frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to
2 A9 e% p2 s! p+ m: H, K decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still
, H( X$ G. ?- @' H# m: i largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely
: m9 D$ d) k$ P8 a0 \+ J poor affordability levels.
. T" a8 \- H l1 y- y: | - Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the
. w) e" [% f% W! V1 b, E$ p9 B1 S6 N vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and- B% s3 \, n* x1 A# B" n- [4 A
prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.
9 _1 u# O( y1 o Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to; [+ V* S3 O1 |8 e: @6 v" P
minimize any downside risks.' Q. \( }4 U% F2 L# M
- Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market$ S! H6 F( {2 u" A4 Y4 D
conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is% m2 u: p. v$ I0 C) t# O$ N0 G
unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early
) X5 T1 w6 T2 E w6 ~ 1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly
5 v* U0 b' f# R" q8 }1 a being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.
' Z! O/ F) ]' X+ t, f% W - Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in
# p/ l8 ]2 e9 o5 i9 k0 N Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus
/ i: ]: r9 j! t far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up
+ S [6 e3 A$ b reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be
; |1 |8 C3 m! |% | ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only
) t# W# F9 F/ b& p modestly in recent years.: D0 I; n1 U+ O" m. {
- Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the
; M+ D1 ]- w1 W0 J1 X general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot
+ O: o: M9 j" Z) j' V- G, y spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward
. h- b; C4 e: e8 A) R# r0 T8 y" \ price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability0 g' @( k% @' U% d# g
following two years of deterioration.
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