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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC - G& C! r+ x! q9 b# S9 j; i3 W' r9 ]: s
TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the# k6 l8 H/ [ m# J3 s
middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive/ @- ~+ L; h) F& m6 h0 v- [; f
gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,# Y) t& e2 U0 e( \" m x
according to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.
w8 A" j+ ]$ Y6 ?( B, h* ]) } "The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"
" ~0 s0 |) S; l) f7 _, qsaid Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is
; j: @) V) n2 Y6 ~8 ^improving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability( r6 I U/ g) F# q" D) x
measures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."2 S; Z. r' I L9 P) h2 g$ L
RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is
+ V4 { A5 F: |' ^# h/ x% Y* cworrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,
# n% M5 w- u3 a( \9 Z0 H; ~which runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have7 u4 H/ b6 s: \( |: ?- W [$ j- k
sustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.6 F# y( j( J. L3 ^1 q
The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the
9 @9 R8 ~* V+ y* lproportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a/ ]6 J: s% H) Y
home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.
' c: [7 P- ] [6 T6 r8 LAffordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the
: V# j4 N" \0 G" U" istandard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and
3 g% n1 c f6 athe standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.
) T# g5 H6 t! U3 }6 t" Y According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets% C& _0 M- U* N) O' d! |$ @9 t+ g' d* Z
may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in
7 O. [/ X+ T( C: H! Nthe closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at
. o$ g1 B/ X/ x2 |; B( @5 \) r yhistorically depressed levels.8 k4 d2 g2 N/ H/ s. E( w2 t
Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost
]$ D* i3 r7 j6 _ g6 T/ Fof homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House
- }2 F! x2 w k3 `8 h" Xprices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the
. g6 h+ f! c8 X7 N0 B% qhands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This
$ B: g) c" t# I% h7 f henormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the
5 o6 x9 B! [ b9 Q9 N4 ^0 Xmonths ahead," added Hogue.: `" f, m: G7 @$ }
RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest8 v( R" Y( v; h3 w& G: o' g% k
cities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary
2 Q4 O i: U3 e; |! ~42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.
. ]5 V4 R' I' \: K9 O, I The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for; t9 d1 D: H9 p% A3 z& p6 A# j
a broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these
2 u" C( N+ H) O/ Xcities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only
# c; M: D7 I1 ? t- ]& i; D% ?takes mortgage payments relative to income into account.) x4 G' W7 ^# r( {( L
The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is
$ {6 c9 r7 D7 W" }2 {3 ^- Xbased on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property, Y" X3 ?& v& `+ w& |. Y
benchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented
y" E, o+ W5 [9 `- x. K1 U r+ Rincluding a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard: A4 y! d1 Z; n9 E
condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.! Y) T1 L4 q6 r X5 z
For example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership
5 D) m0 G2 d) \costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50% ~1 \0 O/ n |
per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.
9 r) `/ A- ^3 M2 o# w+ D8 ] K5 J8 g2 w
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. ~- l1 P) h2 m% a2 o4 Q( W0 u( ` Highlights from across Canada:9 s4 i0 X8 T7 f
" ]& H8 g% B; ?' a: H) n/ I
- Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has
% ^+ h1 e I' t$ D0 F8 d) P, J intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing( r) N1 F' X5 v% Z0 O9 |
home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound9 n& z, v$ l% e; T& q
only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track
' U2 i1 k4 F1 {6 s7 ?! [ since about the middle of 2007.9 g; z5 K& \+ ?6 S/ L
- Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the
7 q2 O q* O0 n7 n$ l2 b% X7 g frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to6 |* I4 A( e7 w
decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still* X! A3 P- _$ g
largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely
! j7 S% m* T7 K, P7 G2 P/ E poor affordability levels.) o6 z* F+ u3 g1 A2 t
- Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the
: z6 \2 I0 i4 Y( n vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and
0 e) y# x. v$ x* i0 u prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.
1 B) j% C* t# c/ ~) l Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to ~8 v& K S( Q' \ y7 c: w
minimize any downside risks.
" C( L/ l8 f% {- v5 N" \3 n - Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market
2 j( _" o z2 p1 e! x7 [4 J2 [ conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is
, t0 S9 r3 F6 ? unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early
) ]# G" ^7 O8 a0 A- P" m# F$ Z6 g: u( j) @1 L 1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly
' F4 ~, Z- Q) k) a, K3 u* ` being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.5 A/ p" s! V5 Y, M
- Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in* n X# J3 [/ W
Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus9 A8 v) N- ?% F6 M
far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up
9 q! t+ ?/ z' N& d9 n& B reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be
5 J! v9 H! |. R6 m* t3 h) A ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only9 I+ b+ z* m8 Q0 c
modestly in recent years.
% c6 ^- H" N4 K0 X. ] - Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the0 ]4 L$ v) D- f/ w3 [( R8 A1 [1 B
general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot
4 U! f$ m. e0 ]9 H9 p8 l8 b spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward6 }6 p- c8 B2 D
price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability
- W7 b& k2 e9 R following two years of deterioration.1 {5 r% s; P7 o, e& L l
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