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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC 5 B; `. A0 V3 q$ c' g
TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the5 Z4 H/ C+ f+ \/ r( Q& `
middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive
) A3 [3 q. T& ^5 t, Y+ ^# V4 Tgains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,
" i+ R/ f1 H! _' d9 q/ Iaccording to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.
/ q3 [% r0 j) s; q5 ?, C8 C "The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"6 m% s( U. u* V! I4 J6 k# }! o
said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is
d) {8 \! p5 {% v; {improving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability
2 z/ t. k L) ?7 q+ d6 Cmeasures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."
7 x) t R1 |& }5 {- c RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is
9 ^9 j# ^% W! Y2 \1 I- \) a. Hworrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,8 D1 q0 E3 N- ], a
which runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have' b7 Z4 O$ \7 |& o$ R6 ^! ?, o
sustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.
/ ?% G1 }; f4 n% h4 } The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the
8 h& @) h! y9 Z# Yproportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a: V( t) j- a- P
home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.
7 P" ?- s* S; Z* B" A/ @ DAffordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the
4 t H3 G6 e$ ~. ]standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and& H- M* s# c* k
the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.8 X' [; {: \4 s1 }, {; g
According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets
1 h1 e3 D& f3 y( p8 d8 y' @+ tmay be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in1 y5 ^( A" O2 j5 z# T% N# q
the closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at. o6 a0 ^/ P2 L' F
historically depressed levels.; s }/ ?) ], p2 i
Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost
' H% ?+ c; g7 m% Sof homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House9 ~5 @! M/ @2 W( u9 f0 U* M
prices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the
2 E0 m; f# L# J& \# chands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This
: A2 ^, j) [, C. n& S# {1 i/ `6 Y% Oenormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the5 p$ J6 e$ t( d) b; h
months ahead," added Hogue., @# {) }1 z( ~9 [, U% H
RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest
- P }, `& H6 r4 q8 W' Y6 Zcities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary
+ }$ ?) w Z7 ]4 f42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.
6 }* d8 N& C$ x6 Q The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for
* ^, b6 R% `1 C+ x' P3 za broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these2 o+ i, u& e$ d% h8 ]8 {2 z7 I
cities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only) ?4 S9 q$ z U1 {* M( G3 p
takes mortgage payments relative to income into account./ I. k! H% \, I" k' y$ p# @
The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is
' ], `' |" z h5 ^( v+ i2 Qbased on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property9 [) `. @4 g& O8 O5 J
benchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented
1 N& m! a) S: F t5 Gincluding a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard
' z- S3 ?# C) y# {% }+ a% tcondominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home. i$ n* c* D. ?; L T) J6 z& X
For example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership
" R- s* R4 N) m) }& lcosts, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50$ e( ^- Y7 F# k, u
per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.' p% @& g0 d& z, V, V! i
; X( h3 Q' h9 I1 M
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% j c# H. r* d g V Highlights from across Canada:9 z6 I. o# D6 B4 \8 R/ e8 g2 Q N
5 s# O6 \, C1 s+ D; r7 R# ^3 w - Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has2 A9 H. }& g. d( h
intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing
. L$ a' d9 M9 I home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound/ p3 h) ~9 ?, S% E. P
only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track% r7 D( D: m: a6 f$ T- K
since about the middle of 2007.
5 }# N9 @3 X d - Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the
* V% f$ ~+ x$ V1 E( T frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to
' O+ A1 O9 W1 Z decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still2 G. K1 G- y/ T
largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely
* b- j5 }, s9 C poor affordability levels.
( @9 X6 m, c* M - Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the
; Q/ A! w7 m* R vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and" {) C" ^8 e8 j R
prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.$ e, ?0 N, \: P% k8 M+ ^
Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to/ F9 o7 ^9 J9 H$ Q, B8 T- R6 L" R
minimize any downside risks.8 v% M8 m$ Q) G7 o' z2 M9 r p$ B9 U
- Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market
$ P" }! t! N8 K& f" E( t conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is. c& f2 |3 S8 M0 y7 y8 t) H
unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early
9 `) `3 o/ y, g 1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly+ C3 ]; F w: o: Q# }) @
being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.; m/ H1 B6 L# I
- Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in6 t5 o$ M5 k+ K
Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus
) W) k/ S5 ?) E$ @7 M/ g; R+ y far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up3 v$ `- p* R F. n
reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be0 w) k N8 S% y$ s
ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only3 D' `# r9 a& a9 Y# P
modestly in recent years.
/ j7 y- M0 [' ]7 {* h7 a$ {" A1 G - Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the
/ I$ E/ }1 D7 |" V" N$ | general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot
; s8 C+ ]6 r4 T6 P d spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward
1 t X. O8 v" c/ I! Q7 g! u9 E price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability
" e% Z+ p) F9 k! G: q Q& Z following two years of deterioration.) o, M0 T3 R, z$ F
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