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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC
8 ?, ^ H/ f0 h TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the
; ?, `7 I# d- n' i! R' Qmiddle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive1 n) @# K W- h4 M2 c
gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,; v& }1 L! T: m) a, \ j7 P
according to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.3 o R; R8 y) h# m
"The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"
Q% \& Q2 Z/ ~" y) B3 }# z; P# gsaid Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is. L/ Q; m- F4 `& }0 m6 z
improving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability+ V2 Y" [5 v6 {2 Z4 u# e/ R
measures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."$ K. H$ U0 g$ s4 R5 U% w% |; o9 t, u9 C
RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is
2 m1 A! p8 P. \! x1 Nworrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,
+ x7 `$ N# O+ k$ ?8 awhich runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have- d$ F3 H+ D1 G8 `. u0 Z
sustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.
* x, i% v- d: M. M; G8 [; S The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the
% `: a" C1 \- @# x8 z: O. W; ?0 ^$ Nproportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a
/ z4 t0 S7 Z1 l+ Ihome, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.$ @2 v" o- G J: r" F" a" [* ]
Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the
: b1 S' z% l! n' ~! z- `$ Qstandard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and/ H$ P- x- X, B: u0 G8 @# V
the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.
/ t& O* c: J1 X& k According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets
7 [* u) e# X" d8 ?/ imay be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in
$ a' M* R' v4 e5 athe closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at# ~' [% l: s. O, `5 N
historically depressed levels., j1 O7 S6 g; g$ Q0 O
Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost
% G2 d, h4 ~6 k% X$ ~of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House
, p# z1 C" l, |5 M! Y: q, X0 Nprices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the( r' ^% `0 X+ f' {+ `
hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This; t9 d3 k: F. [3 f7 @; H5 y
enormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the
; u$ ?) t! N, smonths ahead," added Hogue.4 M3 W& o$ R# b" J$ y1 s. b |
RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest
+ }/ S7 h4 m$ i+ _- fcities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary5 n1 e7 ?3 i1 d( v3 R1 S: b
42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent./ [1 y9 z ?, I. t2 N
The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for
) I. \1 O! h3 u4 Z0 \, a, w7 Wa broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these
# n! I; T3 Z) G+ ~. v8 Wcities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only
4 D# m5 }9 f2 i$ Ptakes mortgage payments relative to income into account.9 _) y) A x$ z) u+ P; v
The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is
3 ?0 `* [5 ^* w! A( v, Fbased on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property& m" }$ L: |2 P) _- m1 [: |" r" @
benchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented
# Q! Q8 m& a8 Nincluding a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard
3 `5 ^% L) t% K$ x6 m; R+ z+ D3 E) xcondominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.$ X0 H( j0 D0 s) d; r
For example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership% j5 e' ?9 N; ]& B1 l0 f1 g( A* c4 V/ T
costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50
! L2 \; X' |; a& B) I, l$ }% a( Sper cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.
- H$ V) a+ p$ x
# o6 b1 A' ~" _' @0 J) E+ Y% {/ W <<
$ J4 f" U5 L% g7 b( B' ^: D6 } Highlights from across Canada:
8 M( E1 T! X& Y/ W! B+ L: z- h
2 a( B, y" M ]& L - Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has
1 ~+ S4 H2 `/ t+ e9 o2 y0 O intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing
- z( H, z2 _. A, J home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound: m" w$ j# V( ~
only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track
' l$ x# D/ V4 ]" H' H3 }" d since about the middle of 2007.
( @9 R8 {, A% r- N - Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the. v- y# @# }% T0 u! M" V; y
frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to1 b. N9 i$ \; W8 s: r
decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still
% ~- Y7 \. \) R: I" c largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely
( W/ k2 q4 W& w0 n5 e4 L1 |. N poor affordability levels.
, v' ^, U) D/ `5 Z8 G# c0 k - Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the
8 P; l3 S7 |7 o- y vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and6 W, t2 |1 p+ D; I
prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.
0 _* u1 R c& `: q( q6 k( D Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to6 ]6 T; t! n" ?) z) v6 o+ H9 b/ Q% T
minimize any downside risks.
2 U& z: v: r8 u# j - Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market( h6 i# Z$ d3 z% d8 H+ R7 E
conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is
8 G, o" D# y) ?. }- t unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early) Z$ F: p( y! V6 O/ c
1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly
" p+ o2 F; }& y# \ being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.8 O/ E7 w$ H+ B
- Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in
b* |) O3 t1 ^( \% m& ` Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus9 c/ ? N/ L- Q6 D! ? O' K
far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up l7 \5 O# T: t5 N2 Q8 T0 b2 \
reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be7 s( Z+ q8 ? }9 G7 z
ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only1 n3 a$ Y2 W9 r g! t
modestly in recent years.
M, q) U( p, m - Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the+ B$ E& F l& h2 T+ r
general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot/ e# }7 J% {9 ]! B! N% w% n, H; b
spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward
6 b8 n$ l+ q7 a8 L5 B: j, t price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability3 v1 b: }" k& T) H
following two years of deterioration.! E% e! e0 A/ p! [; \( e4 R
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