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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC
0 k! f" }6 s& T. ?8 U& X; Q TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the
, H4 J7 v, v. x" W; q* r9 i! cmiddle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive# ^$ A* e6 c" Q$ T- m- E+ h" d
gains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,
( F9 f* _8 g# a; Xaccording to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics./ U7 e! }( c, k+ s2 g/ s4 X/ ]5 @1 q" W
"The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,"
+ {7 Z* B8 M/ b# I Z/ f& N' zsaid Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is0 {( Y# F& X' }0 F/ I! V
improving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability \' J5 K4 |) q, m0 [% G
measures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."9 s' y! v& `- f+ L8 ?% e- q2 B
RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is
_) ?- G% ~4 R0 } e! [worrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,* w9 L! ]$ W, z
which runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have7 U& D% R4 i3 h4 q1 |
sustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.
9 }- y: W) F1 ^. t* v+ x1 c The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the+ c! ^7 N- E2 X$ E6 z0 u
proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a' B; z5 v2 ^6 z3 L" t6 X
home, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.
C* G( l5 w9 l2 w8 OAffordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the8 K9 n5 j* d* Y! A! f
standard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and' F B0 l; g* c6 u* E. O" f! u$ i
the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.
2 X5 }# r. d d* t$ X6 u- K9 j According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets
+ w+ H2 l% N0 ]7 [3 ~: ^may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in
. U) t* D' r4 Fthe closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at* J1 @6 i/ \- f" B5 [
historically depressed levels.
" C, R. [ y3 f/ {) D' d0 n! Z# s/ L Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost: \2 t: [: O* o9 Y
of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House" l) I& x$ { R! [/ u
prices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the2 c% t" o" n Z9 w6 Y+ T9 v
hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This- A, s; H B, [; x
enormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the" l, m7 c" H3 ~! y) x# C3 K: d0 I
months ahead," added Hogue.$ s: A/ ]. T5 U) ?
RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest9 u0 h; `7 h6 I8 J4 J) O
cities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary4 f1 J3 U. d/ }( B
42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.
; S1 W" K5 P D E+ q The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for8 [; F4 |" x- f& M
a broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these( f% |+ ~: K5 C& A! c
cities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only
: P N+ [3 a+ F% F; w* ^takes mortgage payments relative to income into account.
T/ f$ z; x0 N1 ? The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is1 L4 H! d" Q: V& b4 M, _
based on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property
. l& @3 v) R }9 D) Pbenchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented7 N& T, i: y0 T; d
including a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard1 B% v8 \8 g6 Z- N
condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.
0 W6 f& Q. M# ~% OFor example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership- V) ^ k, I! P+ d' _$ Z
costs, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 50. x, U( A- R- ]* R1 v: a
per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.
' V- U: p; C; z& K: U; Z$ j8 g. V& n! e! U# J5 g6 j
<<
6 O( @% h9 D5 } Highlights from across Canada:
" V1 J2 U3 _4 }
: Q( p& ? q) n+ D' } - Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has% t7 Q$ q/ l3 I; c4 r; a
intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing6 b& c' E& I1 D. f9 H1 O8 w
home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound
' ~ `* J$ _7 v6 v only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track( G5 r: {/ u. C
since about the middle of 2007., {+ b6 `6 E6 h# c
- Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the& v/ N! V: e1 N" f" Z d# m/ g
frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to0 P& w" K ^8 f* s4 O3 ^4 M" V
decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still5 m: W/ S. y* E( P& M
largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely
0 {! a6 j0 g ]; h poor affordability levels.
( S+ T; c+ c0 a; W( Z! E3 d0 ] - Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the0 E8 K; d7 H+ G' j, h- A, B; A; q4 {
vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and
8 r; o% H& I- o8 i: `. i0 v) i6 r9 D prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.
- P: q9 [, U4 A1 C6 h' u Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to
0 k* s* P1 ~* i- |2 J minimize any downside risks.- ^# o8 D y9 A: [
- Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market
& h* [+ H) b3 E. V } conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is
. P5 q, u6 O6 m3 { unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early
4 I6 P t3 R8 ^3 C* f7 d$ z% c 1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly8 j4 s- } g: C! c( u( T9 z
being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.& l) n: x+ R( A: T+ M' d# g: ]3 h- h
- Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in
& E c; `) i7 r' @ Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus, A( z+ l9 Q' k0 R3 r d* i
far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up5 L1 E/ h' f' {, y
reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be. l' J: x* Y0 o) X U- w
ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only
! J+ |0 ~! L6 O9 ~! X modestly in recent years.
9 n" U" `" ` i: x ]4 |2 b J/ { - Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the% P& c! p! x2 n! w/ h( ?2 |
general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot
# [+ Q& r- j/ ]& z" m9 {, Q spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward% M, }- \$ {/ U. ?
price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability- X5 o6 d: ]' G! M) n+ U
following two years of deterioration.- @! E! ]5 E M
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