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British Columbia's housing affordability notably improved but still has far to go, says RBC
' t5 s& G8 @; u0 E7 b TORONTO, April 16 /CNW/ - British Columbia's housing markets are in the. l5 E) s. ?) \ m w
middle of a significant correction that is partly reversing the extensive
$ m2 e" F4 F0 qgains of recent years and which is helping restore affordability conditions,% S8 |$ g# u* j; e6 k: a
according to the latest housing report released today by RBC Economics.( \3 Z! M) G5 L
"The province's housing markets remain under heavy downward pressure,", g5 o/ ?: b. ]
said Robert Hogue, senior economist, RBC. "While housing affordability is; t# u/ M/ ]# I! Q- e
improving as the correction process runs its course. RBC's affordability
/ T. y) Y& a# m, R( e7 Ymeasures for the province are still at levels far off historical averages."1 z% E9 j4 l8 d( }/ P
RBC notes that the sharp rise in unemployment since last summer is$ b7 N2 F) G0 a& z( t$ W
worrying households in the province and weighing down demand for housing,' x6 V; D3 d$ P* i8 H$ h3 Z7 d
which runs well short of available supply. Such weak market conditions have
! O9 U% s7 n& g' `+ r( Lsustained the declining trend in prices for both existing and new homes.
4 d' ]6 Y3 z8 _' ~ \ The RBC Affordability measure for British Columbia, which captures the4 w" g. ?& _3 Z4 T8 A; D$ p
proportion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a
- N0 W' ~+ s4 ~6 k1 W$ Ehome, improved across all housing segments in the last quarter of 2008.4 j! f* |0 s" d2 @6 }; b- M
Affordability of detached bungalows in the province moved to 66 per cent, the
' L( @# p9 F/ fstandard townhouse to 52.5 per cent, the standard condo to 36.7 per cent, and0 [6 [4 w! I+ X( c3 J& h" o! M8 }+ p7 |
the standard two-story home to 73.7 per cent.
' W( C: J- U8 t3 }3 o9 S According to the report, there are signs that the B.C. housing markets: J+ b- t( b" D
may be stabilizing as sales of existing homes appear to have bottomed out in
5 Q8 g1 n8 ~" Vthe closing months of 2008 and the first two in 2009 - although at
. S) t4 L6 R) w- a3 i9 N, shistorically depressed levels.- j' E! d k. I/ _
Despite sharply declining house prices and lower mortgage rates, the cost1 ~* o9 s! |5 q6 n: t( [2 S* e
of homeownership in Vancouver is still the highest in the country. House
/ I$ b0 B3 }$ P4 {# `8 {prices continue to rapidly decline and pricing power remains firmly in the3 w: T: P! H& ?. K
hands of buyers with the sales-to-new listings ratio at historical lows. "This
, c2 T {' T: q; qenormous imbalance suggests that prices will likely further correct in the
9 T# Y- j+ Q4 A6 Emonths ahead," added Hogue.8 x5 E3 O2 c2 b: H3 z2 r! \
RBC's Affordability measure for a detached bungalow for Canada's largest! x* n. V0 y4 ^+ L/ f3 ]7 [
cities is as follows: Vancouver 70.3 per cent, Toronto 51.3 per cent, Calgary0 x8 V' z" L* z# ~& z$ Z4 c
42.7 per cent, Ottawa 42.7 and Montreal 39.4 per cent.
/ L, p! I' P) e( R3 I$ Y3 u The report also looked at mortgage carrying costs relative to incomes for7 D$ p/ w) f M, P" X4 e
a broader sampling of cities across the country, including Victoria. For these
! f0 w5 R; h3 j5 K6 Tcities, RBC has used a narrower measure of housing affordability that only
' [! R6 x3 t9 t7 Q$ `, R; ttakes mortgage payments relative to income into account.
+ Y* f, x: r+ c* q The Housing Affordability measure, which RBC has compiled since 1985, is
; P+ Q; \' I3 O" gbased on the costs of owning a detached bungalow, a reasonable property7 `& s' G& {) W0 H5 M
benchmark for the housing market. Alternative housing types are also presented3 ^7 u5 y" j( J$ Z
including a standard two-storey home, a standard townhouse and a standard
: P, v* `7 |2 \/ a. ~) j" `condominium. The higher the reading, the more costly it is to afford a home.0 M( a5 b; l: o% |
For example, an Affordability reading of 50 per cent means that homeownership
1 ]3 A$ ^! z0 Vcosts, including mortgage payments, utilities and property taxes, take up 507 k4 `& e) F; X/ o* y
per cent of a typical household's monthly pre-tax income.( t: H0 h& [$ V+ m+ R
5 R! |; K; p$ \7 d <<
" d+ Q5 \0 L* z Highlights from across Canada:+ x. e u: H& c+ @% Q- Q
, A; R* @+ Q( G' \6 r6 U7 ^4 j1 B - Alberta: Since last fall, the declining Alberta economy has2 u' c$ x5 s M% }
intensified the downdraft on the province's housing markets, causing
6 q& E# Q, v, v: A home resales to drop to a 12-year low at the end of 2008 and rebound- q4 F2 B2 h( t$ A
only modestly since. Affordability has been on an improving track2 i; R0 S( t8 R3 @2 |- l6 _/ T( ?
since about the middle of 2007.
! E$ S2 w: t/ [+ N - Saskatchewan: Market activity has cooled considerably from the/ Q4 ], i7 ] l% @' w
frenzied pace from 2006 to early 2008 and prices have begun to/ Q6 V+ a C ~5 c# j; t- b
decline. Nonetheless, economic and demographic fundamentals are still
( _ ?5 _* m* C A, C1 o6 u: [ largely supportive of the housing market and overshadow extremely! Z/ ~) d; l, S, F+ b4 e
poor affordability levels.
1 s! F* S$ O$ R* C/ B3 M( O3 \ - Manitoba: Manitoba's housing markets have fared much better than the+ K! P+ k' X" b0 ~# [* r& ]+ _
vast majority in Canada: resale activity has slowed moderately and( J( B$ n( ?5 x$ b
prices have either held their own or edged down just slightly.
, ?8 Z7 L+ C: Q O4 f Affordability has been kept out of the danger zone, helping to
4 ~' h$ G' \% n" }2 f2 c: T minimize any downside risks.
5 E ^9 {4 F( Z( ]8 F8 _ - Ontario: With the recession pounding many communities, housing market
2 v! i* K) W: d$ h; K. M# i6 j conditions have deteriorated considerably. However, the impact is
! f9 j, ?$ u- `; ]# I- m* Q: i unlikely to develop into an all-out rout similar to that of the early4 z; w( Z9 @. @4 ~( g0 x3 \% m* `
1990s. Affordability, while still causing some stress, is quickly' y* B( O. e& M* m+ N
being restored to levels closer to long-term averages.7 _0 ]/ a5 P/ \. D
- Quebec: The province's housing markets have been among the last in n2 c6 j6 l3 u+ @0 p& M/ D2 k' H
Canada to yield to the weakening trend. The main sign of cooling thus
/ z4 \6 p5 `2 L, l far has been a drop in resale activity, as prices have held up
$ Z" |0 g! E1 l reasonably well. Some of the persisting market strength can be
: b! \' E# Z+ R' p ascribed to sensible affordability levels, which had eroded only A/ k! k; j4 s2 |% l3 H% b, W0 F
modestly in recent years.5 N% {/ j. D8 G, q0 q% p
- Atlantic region: Markets have largely remained stable against the
9 |4 {& B* j& a6 t0 t/ a& `) O general housing downturn, with St. John's becoming the housing hot
: w- H1 _. f+ p. n3 k/ a4 V spot in Canada and Halifax and Saint John maintaining steady upward
! j# N6 e |9 d$ R& @ price momentum. The region is benefiting from improving affordability
6 g: [6 {5 M B4 g2 {7 F following two years of deterioration.
8 U' T# V3 Z: B! g# d >> |
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