固定利率会回调吗？ 这是一个问题

年轻的心

, t' w9 V+ f7 [% sYields Down. Rates, Not So Much
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Canada’s 5-year bond yield closed near a 3-week low today, settling at 2.43%.  That’s down from its June 10 high of 2.81%.
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3 F' U: T7 `9 q* r0 xWhile there’s been a noticeable dip in yields, there hasn’t been much reduction in 5-year fixed mortgage rates (which track yields).  

* C7 U6 {2 W# P0 h& D; k* pAt the most, we’ve seen a few non-bank lenders drop 5-year rates by 0.10% lately.  The Big 5 banks have not lowered advertised rates at all.

4 `+ A2 y8 h+ Q& l% N' l0 z0 |6 ?/ |One lender sent an email today suggesting that banks have changed their focus from aggregating clients to profitability. Given the banks just went through a vicious market share war, they may be less inclined to discount rates now with only four months to hit their year-end income targets.
The lender went on to say: “There may be some movement soon, but banks are ensuring bond prices stay consistent before they make a move.”

Smokie

appleman

Who knows? But now the prime rate is in the history bottom for sure.

年轻的心

Will 5-Year Mortgage Rates Fall Further?
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Banks last raised mortgage rates on June 9, when the 5-year bond yield was at 2.68%.

Since then, the 5-year yield (which guides fixed mortgage pricing) has fallen to 2.44%, but bank rates have not budged.

  D4 G1 O4 F" X6 S! i& ^5 yBMO economist, Doug Porter, told the Toronto Star it’s because banks "want to be convinced that it is not a flash in the pan and that any retreat in yields is sustained."

1 F3 r! _% X; Z9 c- _He says: "I believe that we are probably not too far away from that point. It might take a little more of a deeper rally (in bond prices) to make it completely convincing."
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6 E, v6 v5 O+ o! m' D) o2 AThe often quoted CIBC economist, Benjamin Tal, thinks yields could fall another 0.05% to 0.10%, but any drop in fixed-rates will be short-lived. "By the end of the year, we'll start seeing rates rising," he says.

# @% b( X0 a2 J5 o- |/ NIf rates do drop another 0.10%, it would translate into a $5.50 monthly payment savings for every $100,000 of mortgage. That’s a total savings of $478 over five years, assuming a 25-year amortization and typical fixed rates.
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But remember, trying to time bond and mortgage rates is financially hazardous.  While you’re waiting, rates can move the wrong way—quickly.  
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You’re usually better served by focusing on factors that can dwarf a 0.10% rate savings, like finding a mortgage with the optimal term and just the right amount of flexibility (pre-payment options, openness, readvanceability, etc.).  Too much flexibility is a waste, and too little can cost you in the long-run.

今晚打老虎

到底涨了还是降了呢？
* O$ \5 `# @; x/ S4 A% g6 E! B5年锁定利率现在差不多都到5％了把？