固定利率会回调吗？ 这是一个问题

年轻的心

! }- Y$ A3 r1 v
Yields Down. Rates, Not So Much

Canada’s 5-year bond yield closed near a 3-week low today, settling at 2.43%.  That’s down from its June 10 high of 2.81%.

+ v: H. I; ~. E! t" Z- v1 L
: K4 q( ^/ w/ C+ ]" i( n9 f) S* ^
! ]7 G# M8 T- D; P1 q& J2 t
7 B5 y# H/ B; [1 L9 L
9 c3 N& y* g$ C2 OWhile there’s been a noticeable dip in yields, there hasn’t been much reduction in 5-year fixed mortgage rates (which track yields).  
% M, _( \. w0 a$ W( R2 a
At the most, we’ve seen a few non-bank lenders drop 5-year rates by 0.10% lately.  The Big 5 banks have not lowered advertised rates at all.
! S2 {, i" B! ]6 |* L: |/ q3 a7 w, g/ H
' j4 _) P4 g( f& _/ [4 t2 i5 uOne lender sent an email today suggesting that banks have changed their focus from aggregating clients to profitability. Given the banks just went through a vicious market share war, they may be less inclined to discount rates now with only four months to hit their year-end income targets.
2 b' y- |( g) p' ?2 K; \The lender went on to say: “There may be some movement soon, but banks are ensuring bond prices stay consistent before they make a move.”
* {8 b" Q  E% ~) a6 Z+ L) J

Smokie

appleman

Who knows? But now the prime rate is in the history bottom for sure.

年轻的心

Will 5-Year Mortgage Rates Fall Further?

0 X7 P9 m9 B, `- H7 `3 [( N Banks last raised mortgage rates on June 9, when the 5-year bond yield was at 2.68%.

+ N( `3 {5 F; r: g/ K5 ]# n7 f% zSince then, the 5-year yield (which guides fixed mortgage pricing) has fallen to 2.44%, but bank rates have not budged.

BMO economist, Doug Porter, told the Toronto Star it’s because banks "want to be convinced that it is not a flash in the pan and that any retreat in yields is sustained."

5 F$ d5 s* }! [He says: "I believe that we are probably not too far away from that point. It might take a little more of a deeper rally (in bond prices) to make it completely convincing."
& o# N, L) q" p; o0 }: ]8 c
9 `: M! V9 \+ |5 P( GThe often quoted CIBC economist, Benjamin Tal, thinks yields could fall another 0.05% to 0.10%, but any drop in fixed-rates will be short-lived. "By the end of the year, we'll start seeing rates rising," he says.
. i4 M0 ?1 d/ Y& r* P5 G
9 e2 u$ e: v; ]4 L( Q, [8 dIf rates do drop another 0.10%, it would translate into a $5.50 monthly payment savings for every $100,000 of mortgage. That’s a total savings of $478 over five years, assuming a 25-year amortization and typical fixed rates.
$ f* l" @8 D; E  W- k
But remember, trying to time bond and mortgage rates is financially hazardous.  While you’re waiting, rates can move the wrong way—quickly.  
+ ^# ~, B$ K: E
You’re usually better served by focusing on factors that can dwarf a 0.10% rate savings, like finding a mortgage with the optimal term and just the right amount of flexibility (pre-payment options, openness, readvanceability, etc.).  Too much flexibility is a waste, and too little can cost you in the long-run.

今晚打老虎

到底涨了还是降了呢？
5年锁定利率现在差不多都到5％了把？